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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 15+ million listens. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trading -- all passionately explored and debated. Guests include Nobel Prize winners: Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Oliver Hart, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. More guests: Jack Canfield, Howard Marks, James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. 1200+ episodes.

Sep 26, 2013

My guest today is Michael Konik, the author of many books of fiction, non-fiction, and essays. Konik has had a fantastic experience in the world of sports betting, and the parallels between his world and the trend following world are off the charts. 

The topic is his book The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies Out of Millions.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Similarities between Konik's world and the Turtle story
  • Konik's background and how he came into this world of rule-based betting
  • Some of the stories about "Big Daddy" Rick Matthews (fake name for a very high profile individual featured on 60 Minutes), the main character in Konik's book and the most successful sports wagerer in the world
  • Position limits
  • Konik's theater background and how it tied in to the experiment
  • Sports betting technique, the line, the Kelly Criteria, and "Big Daddy's" own line
  • The "brain trust" and how "Big Daddy" led his operation
  • Point spreads
  • Looking for value rather than a favorite home team
  • The importance of a dispassionate outlook
  • The importance of knowing why you place a bet or trade
  • How the brain trust came up with a line better than the other lines out there
  • The importance of injuries in sports betting

Jump in!


I’m MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I’m proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.

To start? I’d like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here:

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