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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 9.5+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Jul 10, 2020

Two Great Traders with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jul 6, 2020

To stand out, to attract the attention of those who can raise your profile, to protect yourself during lean times, or to gain the interest of future employers, you must harness three critical communication traits that human beings respond to most: AWE: A―Authority. W―Warmth. E―Energy. When all else is equal―education, work ethic, intelligence, experience, ambition―the single biggest factor in winning business, promotions, friendships, or followers hinges on our ability to communicate and connect. Mastering AWE gives you an unparalleled advantage over the competition, no matter your field.

Steve Herz, who has represented and coached dozens of sports, media, and entertainment leaders over the course of nearly three decades, delivers a step-by-step program that helps you understand and hone your AWE skills. Packed with inspiring success stories, grounded in the latest social psychology and scientific research, and featuring “insider” anecdotes from some of the most popular entrepreneurs and professionals in broadcasting, sports, and the corporate world―many personally coached by Herz.

Bio: As the President and Founding Partner of IF Management, Steve Herz is one of the most influential voices in the broadcast space, as well as a respected business leader.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Don’t Take Yes for an Answer
  • Confidence and Strength
  • Using Authority
  • Changing Communication Behaviour
  • Energy Definition
  • Speaking and Listening
Jul 3, 2020

It's How Good You Want To Be with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jun 29, 2020

This is another one of those great conversations that makes me realize how much trend following is woven into society — even if it’s not called that.

The Three Box Solution mindset/plan is the outcome of 35 years of research, teaching, writing, and consulting. It is well-understood that creating a new business and optimizing an already existing one are two fundamentally different management challenges. The real problem for leaders is doing both, simultaneously. How do you meet the performance requirements of the current business—one that is still thriving—while dramatically reinventing it? How do you foresee a change in your current model before a crisis forces you to abandon it?

The three boxes:

Box 1: The present—Strengthen the core
Box 2: The past— Let go of the practices that fuel the core business but fail the new one
Box 3: The future—Invent a new business model

The “three box” framework makes leading innovation easier because it gives leaders a simple vocabulary and set of tools for managing and measuring the different sets of behaviors and activities, across all levels of the organization. Supported with rich company examples—such as GE, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hasbro, IBM, United Rentals, and Tata—and testimonies of leaders who have successfully used this framework to lead innovation, this book solves once and for all the practical dilemma of how to align an organization on the critical but competing demands of innovation.

Bio: Manish Tangri has spent more than fifteen years executing entrepreneurial innovation activities in Fortune 500 organizations. At Intel Capital, Tangri executes strategic transactions–including mergers and acquisitions, equity investments, and partnerships–worldwide.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Education in India
  • Leadership
  • Three-Box Framework:
  • Box 1: Manage the Present
  • Box 2: Selectively Forgetting the Past
  • Box 3: Creating a New Business Model
  • Google/Youtube
  • Facebook Buying Instagram
  • Ideation and Incubation
Jun 26, 2020

The Opportunity Cost with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jun 22, 2020

Keith Ferrazzi and I dive into his new book Leading Without Authority. Keith aims to redefines collaboration with a radical new workplace operating system in which leadership no longer demands an office, an official title, or even a physical workplace.

In times of stress, we have a choice: we can retreat further into our isolated silos, or we can commit to “going higher together”. When external pressures are mounting, and employees are working from far-flung locations across the globe, we can no longer afford to waste time navigating the complex chains of command or bureaucratic bottlenecks present in most companies. But when we choose the bold new methodology of co-elevation as our operating model, we unlock the potential to boost productivity, deepen commitment and engagement, and create a level of trust, mutual accountability, and purpose that exceeds what could have been accomplished under the status quo. And you don’t need any formal authority to do it. You simply have to marshal a commitment to a shared mission and care about the success and development of others as much as you care about your own. Regardless of your title, position, or where or how you work, the ability to lead without authority is an essential workplace competency.

Ferrazzi draws on over a decade of research and over 30 years helping CEOs and senior leaders drive innovation and build high-performing teams to show how we can all turn our colleagues and partners into teammates and truly reboot the way we work together.

Bio: Keith Ferrazzi is an American author and entrepreneur. He is the founder and CEO of Ferrazzi Greenlight, a Los Angeles, California-based research and consulting firm. He wrote the New York Times bestselling books Never Eat Alone.

Jun 19, 2020

A best of combo episode today: Andrew Lo and Jon Gordon. Enjoy!

Bio: Andrew W. Lo is the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and director of the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering. He is the author of Hedge Funds and the coauthor of A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street and The Econometrics of Financial Markets (all Princeton).

Jun 15, 2020

Rana el Kaliouby is an Egyptian-American computer scientist and entrepreneur in the field of expression recognition research and technology development, which is a subset of facial recognition designed to identify the emotions expressed by the face. El Kaliouby’s research moved beyond the field’s dependence on exaggerated or caricatured expressions modeled by laboratory actors, to focus on the subtle glances found in real situations.

After growing up in Cairo, Egypt, she earned a PhD in Cambridge University, and then joined the MIT Media Lab as a research scientist, where she spearheaded the application of emotion recognition technology in a variety of fields, including mental health and autism. She left MIT to co-found Affectiva, a company credited with defining the field of Emotion AI and now works with 25% of the Fortune 500 and is a leader in emotion AI. Rana was named by Forbes to their list of America’s Top 50 Women in Tech.

Bio: Rana el Kaliouby is on a mission to humanize technology with artificial emotional intelligence, or what she calls “Emotion AI.” through developing a “deep learning” platform that combines facial expression with tone of voice to infer how a person is feeling. She is the author of “Girl Decoded: A scientist’s quest to reclaim humanity by bringing emotional intelligence to technology.”
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Pinnacle of AI in 2020
Artificial Intelligence and Emotional Intelligence
Siri and Alexa
Emotional Intelligence Versus Intelligence Quotient
Communication and Internal State
Clinton and Trump
Building Trust
Facial Landmarks
Data Collection
Dating App

Jun 12, 2020

Get Your Trend Following On with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jun 8, 2020

Your dreams become your destiny when you learn the secret art of asking!

Most people have beautiful dreams deep inside—the things they would like to have, the relationships they’d love to enjoy, and the wellness and well-being that would help them express their best, in every way. But often those dreams lie buried inside us. Hidden by fear or unworthiness or a lack of awareness of what could be. Asking is the only language to which the Universe can deliver a solution, understanding, illumination, or plan.

There are three distinct channels through which we can ask:

Ask Yourself.

Ask Others.

Ask God.

You were born with a destiny. Your job is to discover it. Once you begin to practice the art and science of asking to discover your destiny and start to move toward it, you can manifest innumerable blessings for yourself and others. This isn’t a complicated process; in fact, it’s a simple gift that lies dormant within you. Once you learn to access that gift, everything changes for the better. Ask! will help you access your hidden dreams and reveal them to be recognized and fulfilled in miraculous ways.

You matter. The world needs you to find your destiny and live it. This book is your guide. Start crossing the bridge to your destiny today!

Bio: Mark Victor Hansen is probably best known as the co-author for the Chicken Soup for the Soul book series and brand, setting world records in book sales, with over 500 million books sold. He is also a prolific writer with 307 books authored or co-authored, including The Aladdin Factor, The Power of Focus, The Richest Kids in America, The Miracles in You, You Have a Book in You, and the One Minute Millionaire series.

Bio: Crystal Dwyer Hansen is a business strategist and successful entrepreneur, speaker, and author in the US and China. Crystal, also known as the “celebrity coach,” is a certified life coach and wellness/nutrition expert, whose personal coaching, speaking, CD and video programs, books, and articles have helped people all over the world.

Jun 5, 2020

There once was a time when we joyfully raised our hands to answer questions, connected easily with others, believed that anything was possible, and fearlessly jumped into new experiences. A time when we viewed each day not as something to endure, but as a marvelous gift to explore and savor—when we danced through our lives in awe of the ordinary moments and eager for the promise of tomorrow.

Unfortunately, that’s far from our experience today. Instead, we feel disconnected and jaded. Social media reminds us that we don’t measure up, and the mainstream media barrages us with constant negativity. Many of us find ourselves caught in a life of dogged responsibility and mind-numbing repetition. The daily struggle to earn a living has caused us to lose the sense of wonder with which we once greeted every day.

In his new book, bestselling author John O’Leary invites us to consider that it is possible to once again navigate the world as a child does. Identifying five senses children innately possess and that we’ve lost touch with as we age, O’Leary shares emotional, humorous, and inspirational stories intertwined with fascinating new research showing how each of us can reclaim our childlike joy, and why doing so will change how we interact with the world.

Bio: Once expected to die from massive burns, today John O’Leary teaches others how to truly live. As an internationally acclaimed speaker, bestselling author, and renowned podcast host, John helps hundreds of thousands of people to live inspired each year, sharing his insights and inspiring message with emotional storytelling and unexpected humor.

Jun 1, 2020

Aha Moments with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

May 29, 2020

Why is paying for things painful? Why are we comfortable overpaying for something in the present just because we’ve overpaid for it in the past? Why is it easy to pay $4 for a soda on vacation, when we wouldn’t spend more than $1 on that same soda at our local grocery store?

We think of money as numbers, values, and amounts, but when it comes down to it, when we actually use our money, we engage our hearts more than our heads. Emotions play a powerful role in shaping our financial behavior, often making us our own worst enemies as we try to save, access value, and spend responsibly. In Dollars and Sense, bestselling author and behavioral economist Dan Ariely teams up with financial comedian and writer Jeff Kreisler to challenge many of our most basic assumptions about the precarious relationship between our brains and our money. In doing so, they undermine many of personal finance’s most sacred beliefs and explain how we can override some of our own instincts to make better financial choices.

Exploring a wide range of everyday topics—from the lure of pain-free spending with credit cards to the pitfalls of household budgeting to the seductive power of holiday sales–Ariely and Kreisler demonstrate how our misplaced confidence in our spending habits frequently leads us astray, costing us more than we realize, whether it’s the real value of the time we spend driving forty-five minutes to save $10 or our inability to properly assess what the things we buy are actually worth. Together Ariely and Kreisler reveal the emotional forces working against us and how we can counteract them. Mixing case studies and anecdotes with concrete advice and lessons, they cut through the unconscious fears and desires driving our worst financial instincts and teach us how to improve our money habits.

The result not only reveals the rationale behind our most head-scratching financial choices but also offers clear guidance for navigating the treacherous financial landscape of the brain. Fascinating, engaging, funny, and essential, Dollars and Sense provides the practical tools we need to understand and improve our financial choices, save and spend smarter, and ultimately live better.

Bio: Jeff Kreisler is a typical Princeton educated lawyer turned award-winning comedian, best-selling author, international keynote speaker and champion for behavioral economics.


In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Human Irrationality
Hoarding Toilet Paper
What is Money?
Behavioral Science

May 25, 2020

Michael explores the Great Reset weaving in trend following wisdom. Don’t listen if you are asleep.

May 22, 2020

Negotiation is not a zero-sum game. It’s an essential skill for your career that can also improve your closest relationships and your everyday life, but often people shy away from it, feeling defeated before they’ve even started. That’s the perspective my guest today Alexandra Carter brings to the table.

We’ve been taught incorrectly that the loudest and most assertive voice prevails in any negotiation, or otherwise both sides compromise, ending up with less. Instead, Carter shows that you get far more value by asking the right questions of the person you’re negotiating with than you do from arguing with them. She offers a simple yet powerful ten-question framework for successful negotiation where both sides emerge victoriously. Carter’s proven method extends far beyond one “yes” and instead creates value that lasts a lifetime.

Bio: Alexandra Carter is a Clinical Professor of Law and Director of the Mediation Clinic at Columbia Law School, where she has spent over a decade helping thousands of people improve their negotiation skills. She is a world-renowned negotiation trainer for the United Nations, where she has taught dozens of negotiation workshops to hundreds of diplomats from more than eighty nations.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Negotiation Definition
Brainstorming Solutions
Problem Solving
Landlord and tenant
Factual Uncertainty – Probability, Ambiguity and Complexity
Emotional Uncertainty – How we make decisions in life
Fear and Guilt

May 18, 2020

I am always fortunate to bring on interesting minds to this show. Today is no exception. Through a connection I was introduced to Peter Linneman and given the current state of global economies it made all the sense in the world to have Peter on ASAP.

Peter Linneman is the principal of Linneman Associates, the CEO and founder of American Land Fund and of KL Realty. He previously served as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, retiring in December 2010. Linneman served as the founding chairman of Wharton’s Real Estate Department, and was the Director of Wharton’s Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center for 13 years. He is also the founding co-editor of the Wharton Real Estate Review. Linneman has also been named one of the 100 Most Powerful People in New York real estate according to The New York Observer and one of the 25 most influential people in commercial real estate by Realtor Magazine. Going back to the early days, both Peter’s Masters and Doctorate degrees in Economics came under the tutelage of Nobel Prize winners Milton Friedman, Gary Becker, George Stigler, Ted Schultz and Jim Heckman.

May 15, 2020

Free market capitalism is one of humanity’s greatest inventions and the greatest source of prosperity the world has ever seen. But this success has been costly. Capitalism is on the verge of destroying the planet and destabilizing society as wealth rushes to the top. The time for action is running short.

Rebecca Henderson’s rigorous research in economics, psychology, and organizational behavior, as well as her many years of work with companies around the world, gives us a path forward. She debunks the worldview that the only purpose of business is to make money and maximize shareholder value. She shows that we have failed to reimagine capitalism so that it is not only an engine of prosperity but also a system that is in harmony with environmental realities, striving for social justice and the demands of truly democratic institutions.

Henderson’s deep understanding of how change takes place, combined with fascinating in-depth stories of companies that have made the first steps towards reimagining capitalism, provides inspiring insight into what capitalism can be. With rich discussions of how the worlds of finance, governance, and leadership must also evolve, Henderson provides the pragmatic foundation for navigating a world faced with unprecedented challenge, but also with extraordinary opportunity for those who can get it right.

Bio: Rebecca Henderson is the McArthur University Professor at Harvard University (the highest honor that can be awarded to a faculty member), where she teaches the acclaimed course on “Reimagining Capitalism.” Henderson spent the first twenty-one years of her career at MIT’s Sloan School where she was “teacher of the year” and where her research focused on the economics of innovation and on the question of how large organizations can reinvent themselves.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Coronavirus Pandemic
  • Climate Change and Inequality
  • Healthcare
  • Capitalism and Politics
  • Wealth and Ordinary People
  • Capital and Labor Balance
May 11, 2020

Ep. 866: Walking through Doors and Selling Ten Million Books with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

May 8, 2020

How does a lunch break spark a burst of productivity? Can a team’s performance be improved simply by moving the location of the coffee maker? Why are meetings so often a waste of time, and how can a walking meeting actually get decisions made?

As an executive with decades of management experience at top Silicon Valley companies including YouTube, Google, and Twitter, Bruce Daisley has given a lot of thought to what makes a workforce productive and what factors can improve the workplace to benefit a company’s employees, customers, and bottom line. In his debut book, he shares what he’s discovered, offering practical, often counterintuitive, insights and solutions for reinvigorating work to give us more meaning, productivity, and joy at the office.

A Gallup survey of global workers revealed shocking news: only 13% of employees are engaged in their jobs. This means that burn out and unhappiness at work are a reality for the vast majority of workers. Managers—and employees themselves—can make work better. Eat Sleep Work Repeat shows them how, offering more than two dozen research-backed, user-friendly strategies, including:

  • Go to Lunch (it makes you less tired over the weekend)
  • Suggest a Tea Break (it increases team cohesiveness and productivity)
  • Conduct a Pre-Mortem (foreseeing possible issues can prevent problems and creates a spirit of curiosity)

Bio: Bruce Daisley is host of top business podcast Eat Sleep Work Repeat; was Twitter’s most senior employee outside of the US in his role of vice president across Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and before that he ran YouTube UK at Google. Bruce’s passion for improving work led him to create his podcast where he interviews top business and thought leaders on making work better. This, his first book, was a number-one bestseller in the UK and a bestseller across Europe.

May 4, 2020

The Deep State, Flow State and Animal Weapons with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

May 1, 2020

Alex Osterwalder and Yves Pigneurs’ Business Model Canvas changed the way the world creates and plans new business models. It has been used by corporations and startups and consultants around the world and is taught in hundreds of universities. After years of researching how the world’s best companies develop, test, and scale new business models, the authors have produced their definitive work. The Invincible Company explains what every organization can learn from the business models of the world’s most exciting companies.

The Invincible Company explains how companies such as Amazon, IKEA, Airbnb, Microsoft, and Logitech, have been able to create immensely successful businesses and disrupt entire industries. At the core of these successes are not just great products and services, but profitable, innovative business models–and the ability to improve existing business models while consistently launching new ones. The Invincible Company presents practical new tools for measuring, managing, and accelerating innovation, and strategies for reducing risk when launching new business models. Serving as a blueprint for your growth strategy, The Invincible Company explains how to constantly stay ahead of your competition. In-depth chapters explain how to create new growth engines, change how products and services are created and delivered, extract maximum profit from each type of business model, and much more. New tools―such as the Business Model Portfolio Map, Innovation Metrics, Innovation Strategy Framework, and the Culture Map―enable readers to understand how to design invincible companies.

Bio: Alexander (Alex) Osterwalder is one of the world’s most influential strategy and innovation experts, a leading author, entrepreneur, and in-demand speaker whose work has changed the way established companies do business and how new ventures get started. Ranked No. 4 of the top 50 management thinkers worldwide, Osterwalder is known for simplifying the strategy development process and turning complex concepts into digestible visual models. Together with Yves Pigneur, he invented the Business Model Canvas, Value Proposition Canvas, and Business Portfolio Map – practical tools that are trusted by millions of business practitioners.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Diversified Portfolio
Quarterly Return
Predictability in your Execution Business
Experimentation and Adaptation
Strategic Exploration Capability
Business Models
Leadership System
Exploration and Execution
The Invincible Company
Innovation
Building Fundamentals
Creating Value

Apr 27, 2020

Mike Dever is a trader and investor. He was also episode number one on this podcast!

Mike has been on the front line of investment innovation and trading for more than 30 years. His firm, Brandywine Asset Management, has produced top-ranked returns for its clients that are uncorrelated to all conventional investment benchmarks. His out-of-the-box thinking, innovative investment philosophy and investment success have made him a featured subject of three books, “Bulls, Bears and Millionaires,” “Market Beaters” and “The Investor’s Guide to Hedge Funds.”

Mike was driven to write his book “Jackass Investing” in 1999, after seeing the fever instilled in people at the peak of that great U.S. stock market bubble. But writing the book took a back seat until the financial crisis of 2008 demanded its completion. Today, Mike devotes his time to running Brandywine Asset Management, which follows his Return Driver based methodology to trade broadly diversified portfolios in the global currency, interest rate, stock index, metals, energy and agricultural markets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Depression
  • Corona Crisis
  • Entrepreneurial Attitude
  • US Equities
  • Globally Diversified Return Driver based Trading
  • Portfolio
  • Global Markets
  • Alpha Hedge Strategy
Apr 24, 2020

What are you really missing out on?

You’re home on a Friday night, scrolling through Instagram, ready to go to bed.

You see pictures on your timeline of a party you were invited to, but didn’t go to. You were confident when you said no, but now you can’t stop thinking about it, and you start feeling worse.

You have FOMO, or, Fear of Missing Out.

Coined in a Harvard Business School article, FOMO has become a global term to describe the decimating anxiety when thinking other people are having better, more fulfilling, experiences than you are. It’s a natural, biological response, but that doesn’t make it feel any better. Amplified by the rise of social media, #FOMO has become a cultural crisis―so what’s the cure?

Patrick McGinnis, creator of the term FOMO, has been thinking about it for seventeen years―and he has a solution: decision-making. Learning to weigh the costs and benefits of your choices, prioritizing your decisions, and listening to your gut are central to silencing FOMO and its lesser-known cousin, FOBO: Fear of a Better Option. After all, don’t you want to feel comfortable and confident in your decisions?

Bio: Patrick J. McGinnis is a venture capitalist and private equity investor who founded Dirigo Advisors, after a decade on Wall Street, to provide strategic advice to investors, entrepreneurs, and fast-growing businesses.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Overwhelming Choice
  • Decision-making
  • Fear of a Better Option (FOBO)
  • Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
  • Social Theory at HBS: McGinnis’ Two FOs
Apr 20, 2020

A Pandemic Attitude for Winning with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Apr 17, 2020

How much is a human life worth? Individuals, families, companies, and governments routinely place a price on human life. The calculations that underlie these price tags are often buried in technical language, yet they influence our economy, laws, behaviors, policies, health, and safety.

These price tags are often unfair, infused as they are with gender, racial, national, and cultural biases that often result in valuing the lives of the young more than the old, the rich more than the poor, whites more than blacks, Americans more than foreigners, and relatives more than strangers. This is critical since undervalued lives are left less-protected and more exposed to risk.

Howard Steven Friedman explains in simple terms how economists and data scientists at corporations, regulatory agencies, and insurance companies develop and use these price tags and points a spotlight at their logical flaws and limitations. He then argues against the rampant unfairness in the system. Readers will be enlightened, shocked, and, ultimately, empowered to confront the price tags we assign to human lives and understand why such calculations matter.

Bio: Howard Steven Friedman is a statistician and health economist for the United Nations. He has worked with major organizations including UNICEF, the World Bank, the World Health Organization, UNFPA, UNAIDS, UNDP, and UNESCO. He is also an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Value of Human Life
  • Inequity and Inequality
  • Public Health System
  • Post-9/11
  • September 11th Victim Compensation Fund
  • Boston Marathon bombings
  • Stop and Frisk Program
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