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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Dec 5, 2019

Responsible for brokering some of the biggest mergers and acquisitions in finance, Chris Varelas was listed among the top 100 dealmakers by the New York Times and was named top technology rainmaker by DealMakers Monthly magazine. After working as Citi’s head of technology, media, and telecommunications during the first dot-com boom and then leading the company’s national investment bank and regional offices, Varelas left Citi in 2008 to cofound Riverwood Capital, a premier private equity firm in Silicon Valley.

Chris brings a provocative and entertaining voyage into the turbulent heart of modern money that sheds new light on the rise of our threatening and complicated financial system, how money became our adversary, and why finding a new course is crucial to a healthy society.

In the not too distant past, money was simple. You might have had a bank account and a mortgage, perhaps some basic investments. Wall Street didn’t have a reputation for greed and recklessness. That all started to change in the eighties, as our financial systems became increasingly complex, moving beyond the understanding of the general public while impacting our lives in innumerable ways. The financial world began to feel like an enigma—a rogue force working against us, seemingly controlled by no one.

From an industry veteran who’s had firsthand involvement in the events that shaped modern money, How Money Became Dangerous journeys from the crime-ridden LA jewelry district to the cutthroat Salomon Brothers trading floor, from the high-stakes world of investment banking to the center of the technology boom, capturing the key deals, developments, and players that made the financial world what it is today. The book illuminates the dark, hidden forces of Wall Street and how it has dehumanized and left behind everyday Americans. A fresh and enlightening take on how we reached this point, How Money Became Dangerous also makes the case for why Wall Street needs to be saved, if only to save ourselves.

Dec 2, 2019

Tell Me Something I Don't Know? Well, Scott Galloway, Brian Christian, Matthew Walker and Jeffrey Tucker do just that on this post holiday mega episode.

Nov 29, 2019

This is a new conversation with Paul Gulino and Michael. Think of it as Part II. Here is part I.

Paul Gulino believes in Hitchcock’s adage that “films are made on paper.” Although students may obsess about a film’s look, all of the visual elements, he says, function to enhance the story. And that, ultimately, comes from the mind of the screenwriter.

In spite of the fact that there seems to be a screenwriter behind every corner (in California, at least), screenwriting is something of a lost art, Gulino maintains, having seen hundreds of flat screenplays as a story analyst for Showtime Entertainment.

Honing his own skills through writing for the theater and practicing the craft as taught by Frank Daniel and Milos Forman, Gulino secured an agent with William Morris on the basis of his thesis script. With that “real world” confirmation in hand, Gulino went on to write and see produced features, plays and comedy sketches.

Screenwriting, he says, isn’t a craft you can learn from a book. “The best way is to learn from someone who knows the craft, so you can see how theories can be applied to your own work.” There must be something to that.

Nov 25, 2019

The Act of Thinking Can Feel Nice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 22, 2019

Have you ever walked away from an argument and suddenly thought of all the brilliant things you wish you’d said? Do you avoid certain family members and colleagues because of bitter, festering tension that you can’t figure out how to address?

Now, finally, there’s a solution: a new framework that frees you from the trap of unproductive conflict and pointless arguing forever.

If the threat of raised voices, emotional outbursts, and public discord makes you want to hide under the conference room table, you’re not alone. Conflict, or the fear of it, can be exhausting. But as this powerful book argues, conflict doesn’t have to be unpleasant. In fact, properly channeled, conflict can be the most valuable tool we have at our disposal for deepening relationships, solving problems, and coming up with new ideas.

As the mastermind behind some of the highest-performing teams at Amazon, Twitter, and Slack, Buster Benson spent decades facilitating hard conversations in stressful environments. In this book, Buster reveals the psychological underpinnings of awkward, unproductive conflict and the critical habits anyone can learn to avoid it. Armed with a deeper understanding of how arguments, you’ll be able to:

• Remain confident when you’re put on the spot
• Diffuse tense moments with a few strategic questions
• Facilitate creative solutions even when your team has radically different perspectives

Why Are We Yelling will shatter your assumptions about what makes arguments productive. You’ll find yourself having fewer repetitive, predictable fights once you’re empowered to identify your biases, listen with an open mind, and communicate well.

Buster Benson is an entrepreneur and a former product leader at Amazon, Twitter, Slack, and Patreon. He’s now CEO of 750words.com and writes for Medium.

Nov 18, 2019

A Trading Primer with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. Michael digs into the archive to remind us all about great trading.

Nov 15, 2019

Mark Minervini shares his time-tested approach for bringing your personal best to everything you do. Whether you are in business, stock trading, sports, or even training for the Olympics, Mindset Secrets for Winning reveals everything you need to know to perform at the highest level, and succeed at realizing your dreams. Mark shares his “secret” Empowerment Principles that propelled him from a junior-high school dropout to a multimillionaire Wall Street sensation. His incredible journey is one of the most amazing success stories in America. Inside this book, Mark reveals the technology and tools that you can use immediately to CREATE YOUR OWN SUCCESS and ACHIEVE YOUR GOALS. Transform your thinking with strategies used by world-class athletes and coaches, elite performers in business, and exceptional winners from all around the world. Develop a winning mindset and ACE EVERY CHALLENGE! Inspiration, knowledge and real-life experience – everything is here in the ultimate personal empowerment guide to human excellence. Mark Minervini is one of America’s most successful stock traders. He’s a former U.S. Investing Champion and the author of the international best-sellers Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard and Think and Trade Like a Champion. Mark’s journey from rags-to-riches is a remarkable and inspiring success story. His success, books and performance coaching have become legendary around the world.

Nov 11, 2019

Jim Simons is the greatest money maker in modern financial history. No other investor–Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Ray Dalio, Steve Cohen, or George Soros–can touch his record. Since 1988, Renaissance’s signature Medallion fund has generated average annual returns of 66 percent. The firm has earned profits of more than $100 billion; Simons is worth twenty-three billion dollars.

Drawing on unprecedented access to Simons and dozens of current and former employees, Zuckerman, a veteran Wall Street Journal investigative reporter, tells the gripping story of how a world-class mathematician and former code breaker mastered the market. Simons pioneered a data-driven, algorithmic approach that’s sweeping the world.

As Renaissance became a market force, its executives began influencing the world beyond finance. Simons became a major figure in scientific research, education, and liberal politics. Senior executive Robert Mercer is more responsible than anyone else for the Trump presidency, placing Steve Bannon in the campaign and funding Trump’s victorious 2016 effort. Mercer also impacted the campaign behind Brexit.

The Man Who Solved the Market is a portrait of a modern-day Midas who remade markets in his own image, but failed to anticipate how his success would impact his firm and his country. It’s also a story of what Simons’s revolution means for the rest of us.

Gregory Zuckerman is the author of The Greatest Trade Ever and The Frackers, and is a Special Writer at the Wall Street Journal. At the Journal, Zuckerman writes about financial firms, personalities and trades, as well as hedge funds and other investing and business topics. He’s a three-time winner of the Gerald Loeb award, the highest honor in business journalism. Zuckerman also appears regularly on CNBC, Fox Business and other networks and radio stations around the globe.

Nov 8, 2019

Around the world, populist movements are gaining traction among the white working class. Meanwhile, members of the professional elite―journalists, managers, and establishment politicians–are on the outside looking in, left to argue over the reasons. In White Working Class, Joan C. Williams, described as having “something approaching rock star status” by the New York Times, explains why so much of the elite’s analysis of the white working class is misguided, rooted in class cluelessness.

Williams explains that many people have conflated “working class” with “poor”–but the working class is, in fact, the elusive, purportedly disappearing middle class. They often resent the poor and the professionals alike. But they don’t resent the truly rich, nor are they particularly bothered by income inequality. Their dream is not to join the upper middle class, with its different culture, but to stay true to their own values in their own communities–just with more money. While white working-class motivations are often dismissed as racist or xenophobic, Williams shows that they have their own class consciousness.

White Working Class is a blunt, bracing narrative that sketches a nuanced portrait of millions of people who have proven to be a potent political force. For anyone stunned by the rise of populist, nationalist movements, wondering why so many would seemingly vote against their own economic interests, or simply feeling like a stranger in their own country, White Working Class will be a convincing primer on how to connect with a crucial set of workers–and voters.

Joan C. Williams is Distinguished Professor of Law and Hastings Foundation Chair at the University of California, Hastings College of the Law.

Nov 4, 2019

The Art of Not Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 1, 2019

Tara Swart, neuroscientist and Senior Lecturer at MIT, reveals the surprising science that supports The Law of Attraction as an effective tool for self-discovery and offers a guide to discovering your authentic self to access your best life now.

Self-help books like The Secret show us that if we can tap into “The Law of Attraction,” we have the power to change our destiny simply by reshaping our mind. Millions of people have used the ancient systems of manifestation and visualization to find health, success, love, friendship, wealth, and more. But does the “Law of Attraction” actually work? And more important, is this kind of life-changing philosophy within reach for everyone, even the most skeptical among us?

Tara Swart shows us if we can strip away our skepticism, these ancient tools of manifestation and visualization are fundamentally powerful and incredibly effective at freeing us of self-limiting behaviors and propelling us toward our truest, most authentic selves. Swart reveals how and why these systems actually work by offering the latest breakthroughs in neuroscience and behavioral psychology, including lessons in neuroplasticity, magneticism, emotional and logical thinking, and even hydration, self-care, and relaxation. Next, she describes her own journey from skeptic to believer, and guides readers through the scientific breakthroughs and personal revelations that changed her from an unhappy, close-minded, and disconnected woman wanting more from life, to a successful entrepreneur living with confidence, purpose, and joy.

The truth is, most of the things we want—health, happiness, wealth, love—are governed by our ability to think, feel, and act—in other words, by our brain. Dr. Swart combines the insights and inspiration of The Secret with the practical lessons of The Master Key System to help a new generation fulfill their dreams. The Source is a rigorous, proven toolkit for unlocking our minds—and reaching our fullest potential.

Oct 28, 2019

Michael digs into We Work and SoftBank for an outside the box lesson on Trend Following Radio.

Oct 25, 2019

Technology has enabled us to be more interconnected today than ever before. So why do so many of us feel isolated and undervalued at work? Why does it feel like something is missing? It doesn’t have to be this way. In these rapidly changing, challenging times, how do we―YOU―develop the intuition, self-awareness, and interpersonal agility required to prosper?

Here’s what we’ve lost track of: organizations are run by people, and people run on emotions. Strong relationships are the bedrock of lasting success, meaning, and joy at work. In this life-changing guide, Dr. Melanie Katzman shows an impactful approach to connect first as fellow humans, then as coworkers and colleagues, to forge the deep bonds that make a significant difference. Learn how to:

• Establish respect and make others feel valued
• Engage all of your senses to create a truly inclusive culture
• Become popular and be the person everyone wants to work with
• Grow loyalty by making it about them―your coworkers
• Resolve conflicts by remaining curious and open with others
• Fight fear (and prepare for the future) by stepping outside your comfort zone and experimenting with new ideas
• Have a big impact by leveraging your platform, living your values, and leading the change

Melanie Katzman, PhD, is a business psychologist, advisor, and consultant to the world’s top public and private companies, as well as governmental and nonprofit institutions. As the founder of Katzman Consulting, she is a sought-after expert in executive development, group dynamics, and leadership diversity, and has worked with businesses―including Accenture, Bain Consulting, Goldman Sachs, MTV, PwC, and Viacom―in 31 countries.

Oct 21, 2019

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Michael talk all things trend following today using Niels’ podcast as the starting point for discussion.

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is Managing Director of DUNN Capital (Europe). DUNN Capital (Europe) is a Swiss entity with which DUNN has an exclusive consulting agreement to perform business development for DUNN’s programs in Europe. Niels has been in the managed futures business since 1990, holding management positions at several leading CTAs: GNI Fund Management, Chesapeake, Beach Capital and Rho Asset Management, the last two of which he co-founded. He is the founder and host of the podcast Top Traders Unplugged.

Oct 18, 2019

You might think you know what it takes to lead a happier life… more money, a better job, or Instagram-worthy vacations. You’re dead wrong. Yale professor Dr. Laurie Santos has studied the science of happiness and found that many of us do the exact opposite of what will truly make our lives better. Based on the psychology course she teaches at Yale–the most popular class in the university’s 300-year history–Laurie takes Michael through the latest scientific research and shares some surprising and inspiring stories that will change the way we all think about happiness.

Bio: Laurie Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive science at Yale University. She is also the Director of Yale’s Comparative Cognition Laboratory, Director of Yale’s Canine Cognition Lab, and the Head of Yale residential college Silliman College. She has been a featured TED speaker, and has been listed in Popular Science Magazine as one of their “Brilliant 10” young minds in 2007, and in Time magazine as a “Leading Campus Celebrity” in 2013. In January 2018, her course titled, “Psychology and the Good Life” became the most popular course in Yale’s history, with approximately one-fourth of Yale’s undergraduates enrolled.

Oct 14, 2019

Vitaliy Katsenelson and Michael engage in a conversation that starts with a discussion of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck by Mark Manson.

Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates. While his primary focus is on discovering under-valued companies for his clients, he is also known for his uncommon common sense, which he has regularly expressed in articles in the Financial Times, Barron’s, Bloomberg Businessweek, the Christian Science Monitor, Institutional Investor, and the New York Post, among other outlets. He speaks frequently to investment groups around the world, and was most recently profiled in Barron’s. Previously, he was an adjunct faculty member at the University of Colorado Graduate School of Business, and he is also the author of Active Value Investing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck
  • Active Value Investing
  • The Little Book of Sideways Markets: How to Make Money in Markets that Go Nowhere
Oct 11, 2019

Is it worth swimming in shark-infested waters to surf a 50-foot, career-record wave?

Is it riskier to make an action movie or a horror movie?

Should sex workers forfeit 50 percent of their income for added security or take a chance and keep the extra money?

Most people wouldn’t expect an economist to have an answer to these questions–or to other questions of daily life, such as who to date or how early to leave for the airport. But those people haven’t met Allison Schrager, an economist and award-winning journalist who has spent her career examining how people manage risk in their lives and careers.

Whether we realize it or not, we all take risks large and small every day. Even the most cautious among us cannot opt out–the question is always which risks to take, not whether to take them at all. What most of us don’t know is how to measure those risks and maximize the chances of getting what we want out of life.

In An Economist Walks into a Brothel, Schrager equips readers with five principles for dealing with risk, principles used by some of the world’s most interesting risk takers. For instance, she interviews a professional poker player about how to stay rational when the stakes are high, a paparazzo in Manhattan about how to spot different kinds of risk, horse breeders in Kentucky about how to diversify risk and minimize losses, and a war general who led troops in Iraq about how to prepare for what we don’t see coming.

When you start to look at risky decisions through Schrager’s new framework, you can increase the upside to any situation and better mitigate the downside.

Bio: Allison Schrager is an economist, journalist at Quartz, and co-founder of LifeCycle Finance Partners, LLC, a risk advisory firm. Allison diversified her career by working in finance, policy, and media. She led retirement product innovation at Dimensional Fund Advisors and consulted to international organizations, including the OECD and IMF.

Oct 7, 2019

Michael talks with Larry Hite about his first book The Rule.

It's the empowering story of Larry Hite’s unlikely rise to the top of the hedge fund world―with critical insights and lessons you can take to the bank

Larry recounts his working-class upbringing in Brooklyn as a dyslexic, partially blind kid who was anything but a model student―and how he went on to found and run Mint Investment Management Company, one of the most profitable and largest quantitative hedge funds in the world.

Hite’s wild success is based on his deep understanding that markets are flawed―just like people. Through his early-life struggles and failures, Hite came to know himself well―his fears, his frustrations, his self-doubt, and his tolerance for all of the above. This motivational book reveals that by accepting the facts of his life and of himself, he was able to accept markets as they are. And that was the key to his success.

You’ll walk of the footsteps of an investing legend, who imparts smart, practical trading lessons throughout the journey. Making a successful living in trading isn’t about beating the markets. It’s about meeting markets where they are, embracing the fact of risk, knowing yourself, and playing it strictly by the numbers.

The Rule shows that investing decisions are not only bets or gambles, but investments in time, energy, and attention. By focusing on realistic returns on your investments―versus what you expect or hope to get―you immediately improve your probability for success.

***

Larry Hite was the founding principal and Managing Director of Mint Investment Management Company. During his 13-year tenure at Mint, the composite of funds achieved a compounded annual rate of return greater than 30% before fees during that period. Hite pioneered the use of the “guaranteed fund” concept, which helped Mint be the first to raise over $1 billion.

Oct 4, 2019

The first prescriptive, innovative guide to seeing inflection points before they happen—and how to harness these disruptive influences to give your company a strategic advantage.

Paradigmatic shifts in the business landscape, known as inflection points, can either create new, entrepreneurial opportunities (see Amazon and Netflix) or they can lead to devastating consequences (e.g., Blockbuster and Toys R Us). Only those leaders who can “see around corners”–that is, spot the disruptive inflection points developing before they hit–are poised to succeed in this market.

Columbia Business School Professor and corporate consultant Rita McGrath contends that inflection points, though they may seem sudden, are not random. Every seemingly overnight shift is the final stage of a process that has been subtly building for some time. Armed with the right strategies and tools, smart businesses can see these inflection points coming and use them to gain a competitive advantage. Seeing Around Corners is the first hands-on guide to anticipating, understanding, and capitalizing on the inflection points shaping the marketplace.

McGrath is a globally recognized expert on strategy, innovation, and growth with an emphasis on corporate entrepreneurship. A long-time member of the Columbia Business School faculty, she is recognized consistently as one of the top 10 management thinkers. McGrath’s best-selling book The End of Competitive Advantage: How to Keep Your Strategy Moving as Fast as Your Business was recognized by Strategy+Business as the #1 business book of 2013. She is also a co-author of MarketBusters: 40 Strategic Moves that Drive Exceptional Business Growth (2005) and The Entrepreneurial Mindset (2000).

Sep 30, 2019

A T. Boone Pickens Memory with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Sep 27, 2019

Want to deliver a pitch or presentation that grabs your audience’s ever-shrinking attention span? Ditch the colorful slides and catchy language. And follow one simple rule: Convey only what needs to be said, clearly and concisely, in three minutes or less.

That’s the 3-Minute Rule.

Brant Pinvidic and Michael Covel dig into the rule.

Hollywood producer Brant Pinvidic has sold more than three hundred TV shows and movies, run a TV network, and helmed one of the largest production companies in the world with smash hits like The Biggest Loser and Bar Rescue. In his nearly twenty years of experience, he’s developed a simple, straightforward system that’s helped hundreds—from Fortune 100 CEOs to PTA presidents—use top-level Hollywood storytelling techniques to simplify their messages and say less to get more.

Pinvidic proves that anyone can deliver a great pitch, for any idea, in any situation, so your audience not only remembers your message but can pass it on to their friends and colleagues. You’ll see how his methods work in a wide range of situations—from presenting investment opportunities in a biotech startup to pitching sponsorship deals for major sports stadiums, and more.

Sep 23, 2019

JetBlue Chairman Joel Peterson and Michael talk through the playbook for establishing and maintaining a culture of trust that breaks down the operational silos and CYA mentality that plague many organizations.

Trust is the glue that holds an organization together. It turns deflection into transparency, suspicion into empowerment, and conflict into creativity. With it, a tiny company like John Deere grew into a worldwide leader. Without it, a giant corporation like Enron toppled.

How does it feel to work for a firm where leaders and colleagues trust one another? Freed from micromanagement and rivalry, every employee contributes his or her best. Risk-taking and innovation become the norm. And, as Peterson notes, “When a company has a reputation for fair dealing, its costs drop: Trust cuts the time spent second-guessing and lawyering.”

With The 10 Laws of Trust Expanded Edition in hand, you’ll be able to plant the seeds of trust—and reap the rewards of reputation, profits, and success. This fully expanded edition includes a powerful self-assessment tool for organizations to evaluate their culture of trust and discover areas for improvement. Peterson has also added rich new case studies and chapters on the theme of betrayal, including how to manage and guard against it.

Biography: Joel Peterson is the chairman of JetBlue Airways and the founding partner of Peterson Partners, a Salt Lake City-based investment management firm. Joel is on the faculty at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University and has been since 1992. After three careers, four decades of marriage and seven kids, and demanding roles as CFO, CEO, chairman, lead director, adjunct professor, founder, author, entrepreneur and investor, Joel is often sought as a mentor and coach by leaders and aspiring leaders.

Sep 20, 2019

Paul Gulino believes in Hitchcock’s adage that “films are made on paper.” Although students may obsess about a film’s look, all of the visual elements, he says, function to enhance the story. And that, ultimately, comes from the mind of the screenwriter.

In spite of the fact that there seems to be a screenwriter behind every corner (in California, at least), screenwriting is something of a lost art, Gulino maintains, having seen hundreds of flat screenplays as a story analyst for Showtime Entertainment.

Honing his own skills through writing for the theater and practicing the craft as taught by Frank Daniel and Milos Forman, Gulino secured an agent with William Morris on the basis of his thesis script. With that “real world” confirmation in hand, Gulino went on to write and see produced features, plays and comedy sketches.

Screenwriting, he says, isn’t a craft you can learn from a book. “The best way is to learn from someone who knows the craft, so you can see how theories can be applied to your own work.” There must be something to that. Or at least it’s worked for screenwriter Paul Gulino.

Paul and Michael go on the film-making journey!

Sep 16, 2019

What's Old Is New with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Sep 13, 2019

Is the American system of colleges and universities designed to protect the privileged and leave everyone else behind? Or can a college education today provide real opportunity to young people seeking to improve their station in life?

The Years That Matter Most tells the stories of students trying to find their way, with hope, joy, and frustration, through the application process and into college. Drawing on new research, the book reveals how the landscape of higher education has shifted in recent decades and exposes the hidden truths of how the system works and whom it works for. And it introduces us to the people who really make higher education go: admissions directors trying to balance the class and balance the budget, College Board officials scrambling to defend the SAT in the face of mounting evidence that it favors the wealthy, researchers working to unlock the mysteries of the college-student brain, and educators trying to transform potential dropouts into successful graduates.

With insight, humor, and passion, Paul Tough takes readers on a journey from Ivy League seminar rooms to community college welding shops, from giant public flagship universities to tiny experimental storefront colleges. Whether you are facing your own decision about college or simply care about the American promise of social mobility, The Years That Matter Most will change the way you think—not just about higher education, but about the nation itself.

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