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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Now displaying: 2018

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Oct 22, 2018

Run Rabbit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Oct 19, 2018

Allison Shapira is founder and CEO of Global Public Speaking LLC and author of “Speak with Impact: How to Command the Room and Influence Others.” She teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School and offers keynote speeches, workshops, and executive coaching for Fortune 500 companies, government agencies, and nonprofits around the world.

What was the process for pulling research together for her new book? Conducting interviews? Pulling from personal experience? Allison has been teaching on public speaking for over 15 years. She has hundreds of stories spanning across just about every industry – giving her the depth of knowledge needed for this book. Allison saw trends of what worked, didn’t work and how to apply that information to the real world and real people. Public speaking is a critical skill in the professional world and it is a skill that needs training and coaching to become good at. Having knowledge and expertise on a subject alone does not make you a good speaker. Speaking clearly and concisely is a craft that demands hours of practice to feel comfortable.

Allison has had some brilliant and academically distinguished mentors, however the people she has learned from and been inspired by the most are in workshops. She is inspired by getting people “over the hump” and seeing scenarios that prove that public speaking is a skill that everyone can execute.

How does she get students over that “hump?” Vocal variety, eye contact and body language are three non-verbal communication elements that are key in giving an engaging presentation. Also, when people believe in what they are speaking on and are passionate about it, they seem to be less nervous and have less anxiety. A good presentation should feel like a conversation with the audience. With that being said, there is no such thing as perfection when it comes to public speaking. There is always room for improvement – Practice, practice, practice.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Authenticity
Public speaking
Karaoke singing
Vocal variety
Eye contact
Body language

Oct 15, 2018

Las Vegas Roundtrip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Oct 12, 2018

Jeffrey Gitomer is an author, professional speaker, and business trainer, who writes and lectures internationally on sales, customer loyalty, and personal development. He is best known for “The Little Red Book of Selling” and his newest book, coming out at the end of October, is “Truthful Living: The First Writings of Napoleon Hill.”

Jeffrey was introduced to the Napolean Hill Foundation about 10 years ago and volunteered to start writing for their newsletter with an article every Friday. Napoleon Hill was the founding father of positive attitudes. In 1917 he had a course in advertising and selling. At the end of every course he would lay out positive thinking. When the Napolean Hill Foundation found these writings, what they call “After the Lesson Visits by Napolean Hill,” the foundation approach Jeffrey about writing a book outlining his teachings. Jeffrey did not hesitate to say yes – and after years of pining over these lecture notes, his newest book was formed.

What energizes Jeffrey and motivates him to write? He loves what he does. Every day is a great day for him. He doesn’t have two days that are alike, or two books alike, or two speeches alike. He is most excited about “What is next?”. Jeffrey lives in the moment but is ready for tomorrow and his ideas, strategies, and connections – they are all in place to set him up for success in the present day and the next.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Personalization
Service as the foundation of success
Truthful living
Communication

Oct 8, 2018

Tom Basso is back for episode 700. Tom is featured across Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizard” series and most famously known as “Mr. Serenity.” He was featured on episode 400 of Trend Following Radio with a mega 4 ½ hour episode, and today he is back for this new episode. Now retired from managing client money, Tom was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998.

Although Tom has been retired for over 15 years he still gets emails daily from aspiring traders. While on vacation with his wife, they came up with a more efficient solution to answering all these emails. Tom decided to start an educational platform that he more candidly describes as a “Tom Basso brain dump into a website.” He has had 28 years of experience managing money and over 40 years of managing his own money. With all that knowledge, his new website addresses what he feels new and old traders alike struggle with. All content on his website will be free aside from his personal training videos and a narrated version of his book “Panic-Proof Investing.”

What is it about the individual that is so important in trading? How do you become the best trader you can be? How does exercise and diet play into trading? How do you separate self worth from your net worth? How do you stay young in your energy? Michael and Tom keep their conversation on trading today more philosophical rather than technical.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trend following philosophy
Separation of net worth from self worth
How to view winning trades vs. losing trades
Staying mentally young
Brooks Koepka vs. Tiger Woods
Dealing with stress in the markets
Social media stressors

Oct 5, 2018

Tiffani Bova is author of “Growth IQ: Get Smarter About the Choices that Will Make or Break Your Business.” She has a unique background, with 20 years of experience spread between start-ups and fortune 500 companies. Tiffani has put together a first hand look at what it takes to start and run a successful business as an entrepreneur.

How did Tiffani get her start in business? Early in her career she would ask executives and CEO’s constantly for little tid-bits of knowledge–she wasn’t afraid to step out of her comfort zone and ask for help. That feedback and confidence building was the cornerstone to becoming who she is today. What gave Tiffani the courage to talk to these leaders and say “please help and give me some advice?” Sports played a huge role. Win or lose, she learned how to conduct herself and hold her head high no mater what the turnout of a game was.

Growth IQ is a dense book with many case studies. Tiffani researched about 30 companies from all backgrounds including Kylie Cosmetics, Honest Co., and Under Armor–using them as examples to show how to build and sustain successful businesses. She also shows companies hitting forks in the road and how they overcame. Every case study may not be useful to everyone but there are lessons to be learned from all.

Tiffani stresses that it is sometimes the little changes made that make all the difference between a failed venture or a successful one. What are some good questions to reflect on if your business is not where you think it should be?: Is the order you are presenting your product off? Are you selling to the wrong demographic? Are you giving customers the wrong experience?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Flexing your confidence muscle
The power of now
Selling to your demographic
Buddhism
Growing a business

Oct 1, 2018

The Whipsaw Guy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Sep 28, 2018

Jerry Parker is back on the podcast. He is the founder of Chesapeake Capital, was one of the original TurtleTraders trained by Richard Dennis and has had unbelievable success over his four decade career. Jerry brings to the table a straightforward way of breaking down how trend following works.

Trend following relates to everything – from Wall Street to baseball. One of Jerry’s early heroes was John W. Henry, a successful trend following trader and now owner of the Boston Red Sox. Michael and Jerry break apart how John W. Henry and others cross the trend following mindset into sports and beyond.

What is Jerry Parker’s worldview? “It’s dangerous out there and you cannot predict it. Stocks are not superior and they are not the go-to investment all the time. Pay attention to the trend. Protect yourself. Be humble, conservative and worried about risk.” He doesn’t see that view changing anytime soon for anyone – including investors. What do investors want? And do they know what they want? Jerry knows he can’t make everyone happy but he try’s to provide appropriate risk control for his clients without missing out on too much profit.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Baseball analytics
Lumpy returns
Crisis alpha
Having a process and sticking to it
Value Investing
Bobby Axelrod

Sep 24, 2018

Michael explores new research showing pharmaceutical statins do nothing to help prevent medical problems relating to heart disease–if you have no risks. For years people have believed there was a special pill to save them from high cholesterol. Turns out, there is no special pill to help–exercise, eat well, get adequate sleep–these things are how you improve your health. It’s about personal responsibility. Trust yourself? Or trust the system that has been proven wrong time and time again?

$400 billion dollars has been lost in crypto currencies. Michael shares an example of a man who lost 95% of his $120,000 investment in Bitcoin. When Bitcoin started going down he tried diversifying into other crypto currencies. He said his learning process was like “solving the plot of a murder mystery.” The notion that he could use fundamental data and figure out how to trade Bitcoin was all wrong. Jerry Parker commented on this story by saying, “He should have studied trend following.” Having a stop in place, and looking at the data would have saved him from his financial ruin.

Statins and cryptos connect? You bet.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Big pharma
Statins
Trusting the system
Personal responsibility

Sep 21, 2018

Scott Belsky is an American entrepreneur, author and early-stage investor best known for co-creating the online portfolio platform, Behance, Inc. He is author of several books with his latest being “The Messy Middle: Finding Your Way Through the Hardest and Most Crucial Part of Any Bold Venture.”

How did Scott get started as an entrepreneur? He started his first business with two partners selling paper products. He bootstrapped his way through the industry for the first few years – accepting no outside help. It wasn’t until five years into building his company that he had to move in the direction of needing to raise funding. However, at that point Scott and his partners had already built their company at their own pace and on their own terms.

When starting a new business there are a lot of questions that come up: How do I prepare for the long term? How do I hire someone? How do I fire someone? How do I structure team communication? How do I become a better decision maker? How do I continue to make a better product? Scott’s new book is a guide to help answer all these questions.

Uncertainty may be one of the biggest roadblocks in deciding to start a business. What does uncertainty mean to Scott? Uncertainty is a burden that must be processed continually. The more you embrace doing something on your own, the more you will learn how to cope and process that fear.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Seth Godin
Entrepreneurship
Enduring lows and optimizing highs
Uncertainty in business
Starting a business
Staying engaged
Self awareness

Sep 17, 2018

Ken Kocienda was a software engineer/designer at Apple for over fifteen years and is now the author of “Creative Selection: Inside Apple’s Design Process During the Golden Age of Steve Jobs.” After being introduced to the internet in 1994 he taught himself computer programming and made his way through a succession of dot-com-era startups, before landing a job at Apple in 2001. He worked on software teams responsible for creating the Safari web browser, iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.

Ken entered college with the mindset of becoming a history professor or even a photographer. He had various interests in college, however none of them were in the technology sphere. He moved to Japan after college for a few years and upon moving back to the United States, he was introduced to the internet for the first time and instantly intrigued by it.

Ken interviewed for Apple in spring of 2001 before the iPod had been released--Apple was still relying on the Mac as their main revenue stream at the time. Ken had loved Apple products since he saw his first Mac in 1984 so when he was hired on at Apple it was surreal. His first job was to make Apple a web browser of its own – what we all know as Safari today. Later, in 2004, he joined the team to make the software for the iPhone’s touchscreen operating system, among other products.

Inspiration, collaboration, craft, diligence, decisiveness, taste and empathy are seven attributes Ken uses to describe how Apple became the success story they are today. Steve Jobs and Apple chased perfection and demanded nothing short of it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Pyramid of demos
Steve Jobs thought process
Apple company philosophy
Completely present in the moment
Reality distortion field
Creative selection
Green Bay Packers and Vince Lombardi

Sep 14, 2018

Terence C.M. Tse is an educator, speaker, advisor and commentator. He is a co-founder of Nexus FrontierTech and co-author of “Understanding How the Future Unfolds: Using Drive to Harness the Power of Today’s Mega Trends.” His mantra is “You can’t predict the future, but you can be ready with a plan.”

Terence’s book focuses on a term he calls “Presentcasting.” He does not promote forecasting but rather teaches people to look at what’s in front of them and see how things are unfolding in current time. He has created the acronym DRIVE – defining 5 interrelated mega trends: demographic and social changes, resource scarcity, inequalities, volatility, complexity and scale and enterprising dynamics. These are the five directions Terence points clients in when they start thinking about improving their lives.

What is one way to step outside the box and get a better look at trends unfolding? Travel. Traveling is crucial to seeing the speed in development and change happening around the world. Desire to climb the economic ladder is not exclusive to one culture or another. Everyone is looking for the same economic wealth. Most cultures promote the desire to get a college degree, however this leaves young adults lacking the ability to take risks. The education system trains students to study, take exams well and work in certain defined jobs. However, in today’s world learning how to deal with uncertainty, have an entrepreneurship mindset, and take a little risk are the skills that will help young adults get ahead an prosper.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Preparing of uncertainty
Entrepreneurship
Economics abroad
New technology
Rise of the internet
Disappearance of white collar jobs
Student loans

Sep 10, 2018

Bob Woodward Spins John Belushi with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Sep 7, 2018

Gregory Aldrete is a professor of history and humanistic studies at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay, where he has been teaching since 1995. His emphasis is on rhetoric and oratory, floods in Rome, ancient Greek and Roman history, and daily life in the Roman world. What was life like in ancient Roman times? How did people do things in the ancient Roman Empire? These questions are what fascinates Gregory and keeps him moving forward in his research.

What relevance does ancient history have to us today? We are ever presently walking in the footsteps of those who came before us and until you understand the history of prior civilizations, you cannot fully understand who you are. It is the blunders and the achievements of our ancestors that have built up what we see today. There is not much that can be taken away from talking heads in the news and on Twitter, but much can be learned from the study of history.

How does Gregory describe a military blunder? To be a true blunder, the situation must have been avoidable. It could have or should have turned out a different way, but because of someone’s mistakes it didn’t. One of the biggest failures of leadership, which consequently leads to blunders, is overconfidence. Michael and Greg give examples of catastrophic blunders ranging from the Battle of the Little Big Horn to Napoleon and Hitler.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Butterfly effect
Overconfidence in leadership
Napoleon’s biggest blunder
Battle of the Little Big Horn
Hitler
D-Day
Technology and understanding its potential

Sep 3, 2018

Speed with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. Michael goes back to his archives for two of the fastest men in the world. Risk takers extraordinaire!

Aug 31, 2018

Safe is Not Really Safe with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Aug 27, 2018

Bob Enck is the CEO of Equinox Funds and has overseen all operations at the fund since March of 2007. Prior to joining Equinox Funds, Bob worked for about 20 years with large, highly regulated health care organizations including Bristol-Myers Squibb as well as with more entrepreneurial venture capital funded organizations.

When was Bob exposed to trend following for the first time? What was his a-ha moment? While he was doing merger and acquisition work, a couple of his friends consistently would ask him to look over literature from their firm to get input. His first exposure to trend following came from that research. The concept of trend following clicked with him and “just made sense.” His real light bulb moment was realizing that Equinox funds could make money in up and down markets. His friends soon asked him to join their company as CEO.

What is so unique about Equinox Funds? They have paved the way in researching and developing alternative investment strategies for clients through unique investment vehicles. They created the first multi-strategy managed futures mutual fund–the Frontier Fund. In a field where many companies tend to become complacent and set in their ways, Equinox brings innovation and creative thinking to the market. Bob and Michael explore the full range of issues across the alternative space.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trend following in up and down markets
Drawdowns
Trend following performance
Discretion
WTF
Forecasting

Aug 24, 2018

Peter Leeson is an economics professor at George Mason University and is known for connecting rational choice theory with unusual domains. He looks at human behavior as a series of puzzles that are being solved by those involved. He focuses his studies on everything from bizarre rituals and superstitions to the behavior of Caribbean pirates. Peter’s work has also been quoted as “Freakonomics on steroids.”

How does Peter come up with some of his “crazy” ideas? He likes to have a broad library to read from, particularly history books. As he reads he comes across a lot of practices that may seem outlandish to most, but fascinating to him. From there he digs deeper and finds meaning in certain practices through religion, economics, politics, etc.

Throughout Peter’s work it is clear that the main motivator driving behavior is incentives. What happens when we have government incentives vs. private incentives? Michael and Peter finish the podcast talking government intervention, wealth creation and cultural behavior driving capitalistic efforts.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Somalia pirates
Anarchy vs. government
Medieval law and order
Trial by jury
Logic of incentives
Street hustlers

Aug 20, 2018

Brooks Koepka has won three major golf championships in the last 14 months. He has had the emotional fortitude to push through the obvious pressures of being on the top, especially for being only 28 years old.

Brooks wasn’t able to go pro right out of college and moved to Europe to get his PGA tour card. He wasn’t thrilled about having to go overseas to get his chance at the pros in the U.S., but with a chip on his shoulder he used that as motivation to push forward, excel and win championships.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Emotional fortitude
Operating outside the system
Extreme focus
Cryptocurrency crashes

Aug 17, 2018

Lawrence Krauss is a theoretical physicist and cosmologist, professor at Arizona State University, director of its Origins Project and author of bestselling books: “The Physics of Star Trek” and “A Universe from Nothing.” He is an advocate for science based data, public policy based on sound empirical data, and scientific skepticism. His goal is to reduce the influence of superstition and religious dogma in popular culture. His most recent book is “The Greatest Story Ever Told–So Far: Why Are We Here?”

When did Lawrence first discover he was a skeptic, someone who would think outside the box? He was encouraged to think for himself from a very early age. He grew up Jewish but slowly grew out of ideas that surrounded the religion. No real a-ha moment, just gradually decided that religion wasn’t something he could believe in. In 6th grade he also began doing poorly in school. His parents moved him to a different school where he subsequently did much better. Lawrence knew that he wasn’t a different person, but it was other people’s expectations that wavered how he performed. From then on, he was conscious of not letting others opinions of him bring down his performance.

Richard Feynman has played a large role in Lawrence and his studies. He is a great example of someone who did not let other’s hinder him. Feynman was charismatic, intelligent, and excited about all things new – he didn’t rely on other’s opinions. The charisma Feynman possessed, combined with the genius of his science made him the legend.

How does Lawrence describe science? It is a process rather than a collection of facts. Science helps to establish what is true from what is non-sense. It also breaks the sensible from the non-sensible. Lawrence brings this mindset into religion taking a controversial stance saying, “God is completely irrelevant to science.” He fiercely believes that the idea of religion was created as a way to explain how the world worked before we had the technology and science to know how it actually works.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Big bang theory
Religion in science
Simulations
Skepticism

Aug 13, 2018

While Michael was visiting the United States recently his assistant sent him some inspiring old Time Magazines and Saturday Evening Post Magazines. Some that particularly stood out? A 1959 Time Magazine with a story about Nicolas Darvas and a 1976 Time Magazine profiling Richard Dennis when he was 27 years old. These two men laid so much of trend following thinking and to see some original articles in print was inspiring.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Modern American male
Trend following fundamentals
Philosophy behind trend following
Black swans
Fundamentals
Ego in trading

Aug 10, 2018

Gabriel Radvansky studies mental model theory for human memory and cognition. He strives to understand how people create, organize, store and retrieve mental models. Also, how younger and older adults differ on their use of mental models.

What triggered Gabriel to study cognition memory? He was hooked from the day he took his first introductory psychology class. His teacher’s description of what a psychologist did instantly caught his attention and from there he knew the path he wanted to go down. His original major in college was physics, he then switched to AI computer science and moved into psychology. Because of his other majors, he comes at psychology from a scientific approach.

Gabriel has done extensive research on how a person’s environment changes ones memory. Why does walking through doors make you lose your train of thought? Moving from one environment to another, your brain naturally wants to leave some things behind and pick up new things. Different rooms represent different memories and your brain has been trained to adapt. Humans have the same type of trigger when it comes to computer windows and stories within a book – when a character goes from one location to another, information gets forgotten and lost.

Memory is not about the past – we have memories so we know what to do now, and to help us know what to do in the future. What helps one memory stick more than another? The more emotion linked to a memory, the more vividly you remember those events. Memories with an emotional consequence trigger better and faster than those with no emotion linked to them. What are some steps you can take to help your memory? Write things down and have as many broad experiences as you possibly can.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Event cognition
Work environments
Forgetting curve
Long term vs. short-term memory
Environments where our brains learn best
Memory research

Aug 6, 2018

Trend Following Deep Dive with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Aug 2, 2018

Bradley Campbell is a sociologist whose research focuses on moral conflict — clashes of right and wrong and how they are handled. His work primarily looked at genocide arising from large-scale interethnic conflicts , but recently he has begun to examine smaller-scale conflicts on modern college campuses. Since about 2013 he has studied the phenomena of micro aggression complaints, calls for trigger warnings and safe spaces. He views this new era as, “Manifestations of ongoing moral change and the clash of different moral ideals.” He addresses these topics in his book, “The Rise of Victimhood Culture: Micro aggressions, Safe Spaces, and the New Culture Wars.”

How did Bradley shift from macro aggression and genocide around the world to micro aggression on college campuses? He was always interested in answering, “Why do people have conflict? And what causes someone to handle that conflict in a particular way?” How are conflicts handled with the legal system? When someone has a grievance, do they avoid them? So what makes someone choose violence over law or avoidance?

With every generation, comes a different way of being taught how to handle conflict. Where one generation may have been taught to have thicker skin and not take things so seriously, today’s kids have been taught to take offense to every micro insult that might make them feel uneasy. Where there is more equality and in places that value diversity, there tends to be more sensitivity to insults – therefore lots of micro insults tend to add up to big offenses.

Are college campuses a place that should display robust conversation? Or should they be a place where free speech is censored? Bradley argues that, if anything, college campuses should encourage free speech. Unfortunately, words are being viewed as literally violent and should be censored. Michael and Bradley end the conversation on where college students stand on Trump and politics today.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Hate crimes
Genocide
Micro aggression
Macro aggression
Victim culture
Trigger warnings
Trust in government
Safe spaces
Free speech

Jul 30, 2018

“Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions” by Gerd Gigerenzer is one of Michael’s favorite books from the last 10 years. Today, Michael reaches into the archives and plays an interview with Gerd Gigerenzer.

Gerd is a psychologist who studies the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making and investigates how humans make inferences about their world with limited time and knowledge. He is director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Daniel Kahneman vs. Gigerenzer’s views
Heuristics vs. statistics
Medical check-ups
Taking risks
Instincts vs. expert advice
Relative vs. absolute risk
Benjamin Franklin’s ledger
Heuristics
Unconscious intelligence

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