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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.
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Now displaying: 2017

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 5 million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 500+ eps at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Jul 28, 2017

Tyler Cowen is author of “The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream.” Tyler first noticed a problem in America when he began traveling after the financial crisis and saw how “comfortable” life had become for many Americans. People were not taking risks anymore and when risk is taken away, what is left?

There is no way to deliver upward mobility in a society once risk taking, innovation and a sense of urgency has diminished. Americans seemingly have lost the ability to envision a future different than the reality in front of them. Innovation is suffering, travel is disappearing, and people are changing jobs much less than ever before. Tyler describes this shift in mentality as people losing their sense of restlessness and change. There is no feeling of opportunity costs.

Why is this happening? How can American’s not imagine something better? American lives have become safe and comfortable — risk is the only factor that can help transition Americans away from their own complacency. Unfortunately, it won’t happen with people pushing for it, it will have to hit them. We are investing less in science, have obvious issues with cyber vulnerability and infrastructure is not advancing. American culture is lacking and nothing is getting better. Why have people stopped creating? Will there be a great reset in government and on Wall Street? These questions and more are answered throughout the podcast.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Complacency
  • Elon Musk
  • Innovators
  • The millennial generation
  • Democracy as a medium
  • American culture on the decline
  • Illegal and legal drug use
  • Online matching from dating to shopping goods
  • Lifting people out of poverty
  • Jack Ma
Jul 24, 2017

Gimme Danger with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. A new monologue for the week.

Jul 21, 2017

Jon Gordon is an author and speaker on leadership, culture, sales, and teamwork. He has worked with numerous athletic organizations, academic institutions, and corporations. His latest book is “The Power of Positive Leadership.” He teaches people how to focus on weeding out the negative and not letting that energy poison the team.

Jon describes himself as a once fearful, negative and stressed out 31-year old. What changed all of that? His wife gave him the ultimatum: Change your life or I am leaving you. He had an “Aha” moment that gave him the revelation he was meant to write and speak. However, Jon knew he needed to work on himself first, so he started taking steps to better himself. He began by going on walks of gratitude and created a “positive tip of the week” newsletter. This lead to him creating a website, doing about 80 free talks to get started, and ultimately just going for it as an entrepreneur. Jon describes impacting others as being the greatest feeling in the world.

“The Power of Positive Leadership” and Jon’s overall message is about how to root out the negative and focus on the positive. One negative person can bring an entire team down. He calls these people “negative vampires” and says they must be addressed, called out, and kicked off the bus. Building positive leaders fosters building a positive team. You get people on your bus by the way you lead. It can’t be an ultimatum—“Be positive or your are out of here!”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Leadership skills
  • Energy vampires
  • Negativity is contagious
  • Grit is the biggest predictor of success
  • Overcoming challenges
  • Pushing forward through adversity
Jul 17, 2017

A new mono… with some freaking edge.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Warren Buffett
  • Black box trading
Jul 14, 2017

Jimmy Soni and Rob Goodman are authors of “Rome’s Last Citizen: The Life and Legacy of Cato, Mortal Enemy of Caesar” and their newest book is “A Mind at Play: How Claude Shannon Invented the Information Age.” Jimmy and Rob highlight aspects of their new book by detailing who Claude Shannon is and why he is so fundamental for our everyday lives.

Claude Shannon made the entire digital age possible. As Jimmy and Rob said, “He didn’t just think about things, he thought through things.” What made Shannon so unique? He was extremely curious about information and wanted to know about all aspects of it. He brought a lot of insights into a subject that seemingly would come from left field. Shannon was also brilliant at transmitting information and breaking the complex into the simplistic. He allowed himself to move into different fields and go wherever his mind wanted to take him but never wasting his time on an unworthy subject. He could expertly sort through what was worth working on and what was a waste of time.

How do we talk about information? How are we going to quantify information? Where did Shannon live and how did he live? Jimmy and Rob not only dug through scholarly journals to find out how Shannon thought, they also talked to the Shannon family and got to learn who he was as a father, husband and friend. When people think of Shannon’s level of genius, most think he must have short comings in his social life. Shannon did not. His colleagues, family and friends new him as a guy that barbecued, went running, and did his unreal math projects.

Another fascinating trait Shannon had was his ability to not let critics get to him. He was smart enough to know that when he did projects and knew he was right, he didn’t need to pay any attention to the critics. He had confidence that came from his kind of intellectualism. He worked on the information theory over the course of 10 years while working on other projects. By the time he had published it, he already new he was right and had moved onto his next endeavor before the critics could get to him. Jimmy, Rob and Michael end the podcast discussing how Jimmy and Rob came to write this book together and what their collaboration process was.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Information theory
  • Turning complex into simplicity
  • Complexity is the enemy
  • Bell Labs
  • How to deal with freedom in the work space
  • Short-term-ism in our economy
  • Dealing with critics and competitors
Jul 10, 2017

An impassioned intro and an oldie but goodie monologue. Enjoy!

Jul 7, 2017

Andrew Lo is author of “Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought.” He is also the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor of Finance at MIT and the chairman and chief investment strategist of the AlphaSimplex Group.

Andrew was taught from the beginning of his career that the efficient market hypothesis was gospel truth. It was the end-all-be-all. However, he first found a problem with the efficient market hypothesis just after graduating college. He did a test on the “random walk hypothesis” and related his findings from that hypothesis to the markets. He then came to find that his results proved the efficient market hypothesis wrong. Was there pushback during the early stages of talking about EMT being wrong? Absolutely. Andrew was one of the strongest that pushed back primarily because it went against everything he previously knew to be true.

Andrew talks about another study he did with one of his MIT classes in 2004. He looked at hedge funds around that time and through data he proved that they were headed for trouble. They were able to foresee a small piece of the 2008 crash. Michael and Andrew end the podcast talking about Andrew’s new book and the role that the environment is playing in adaptive markets. When studying a species, what should be asked is, “Is it the species that is complex, or is it the environment that is complex and the species is just adapting to it?” Many species have figured out how to live in harsh environments in very different ways. In the same light, there are many different ways that people can trade the market and be successful.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Adaptive markets hypothesis
  • The random walk hypothesis
  • Crowded trade phenomenon
  • 2008 meltdown
  • Paul Samuelson
  • Commodities Corporation
Jul 3, 2017

Steve Burns and Michael Covel get together yet again to discuss all that is trading.

After a lifelong fascination with financial markets, Steve Burns started investing in 1993, and trading his own accounts in 1995. It was love at first trade. A natural teacher with a unique ability to cut through the bull and make complex ideas simple, Steve took to blogging and social media by founding New Trader U in 2011.

Since then, New Trader U has attracted hundreds of thousands of visits a month, becoming the go-to resource for people wanting to build a strong, trading foundation. New Trader U offers an extensive blog resource with more than 1,000 original articles (Steve posts daily and is the author of numerous trading books).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trend following
  • Taking a loss
  • Risk management
  • Proper psychology
  • Mindset
Jun 30, 2017

Chris Fussell starts the podcast explaining the process of becoming a Seal. The teams of the Special Forces do not select as much as they down select. Out of the 150 people who start a Seals class, maybe 25 will make it. The military uses rigorous training to sort out “who has it” and who doesn’t it. People have to have special inherent skills and then they are nurtured to refine those skills. A good team is made up of individuals that complement each others shortcomings and are able to magnify each others strength.

Chris stresses that these men have all the same burdens that civilians have, they just have it coupled with combat stressors as well. They deploy for an amount of time and then come how to a wife, kids, and a stack of bills. Everyone, especially soldiers, need to have a cocktail of coping tools so there is a balance between work and personal life. You can’t be amazing at work and have your family falling apart. Things will start to unravel at work rapidly.

Chris was a young officer in 2004 when the conflict in Iraq started. This was his first full scale conflict. He had the misconception that there was a set plan going in, and that all they had to do was execute that plan. Chris quickly learned he wasn’t entering a stable environment. Everyone needed to be proactive and adaptive to the war zone.

Now that Chris is helping manage a company, he uses that experience to always adapt and readjust. He realizes he needs small teams with a rapid fire adaption mentality. People need to see a problem and intuitively react to it. While in the Navy Seals they re-strategized every 24 hours. There were 6,000-7,000 people around the world sharing a consciousness every 24 hours. The most seasoned teams were able to run with speed and autonomy without checking in because of this once a day communication. They were able to make decisions on their own and be highly effective.

Chris and Michael end the podcast discussing what makes a working relationship. Relationships are grounded in knowing other perspectives. We have to be willing to see things differently and know that both individuals, when there is a disagreement, could be right. When you are on a team and leading with the perspective that everyone is part of your family, it turns teams into a more giving and trusting environment.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Nature vs. Nurture
  • Inner drive
  • Self-awareness
  • Charisma
  • Learning from failure
  • Synchronicity between data and leadership
  • Zealots and martyrs
Jun 26, 2017

Fear drives all in today’s world. Two operations who have not let fear dictate their trading are Berkshire Hathaway and Dunn Capital. Both have 40+ year track records that should be studied. What was their system? How has it worked? If you look at the month by month and year by year of these two much can be learned. Both track records have not just gone up, up, up–they have had massive drawdowns (at least by the definitions of mortals) and still they have been able to persevere. No matter who you are, the ability to adapt to the markets is mission critical.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Drawdowns
  • Dunn Capital performance
  • Warren Buffett performance
  • Risk management
  • Ego in trading
  • Cognitive dissidence
  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Black Swans
  • Transparency
  • Critics; Trolls!
Jun 23, 2017

Anthony Tjan is author of “Good People: The Only Leadership Decision That Really Matters.” He is CEO and managing partner of Cue Ball and has a successful track record as an entrepreneur, principal investor and strategic advisor. He leads his firms overall direction and is involved in activities across the board with Cue Ball.

What was the progression in Anthony’s life that brought him to where he is now? Anthony is an immigrant and experienced a great amount of generosity throughout the years aimed at him and his family. He shares a story of being 15, selling picture frames in Canada. At the end of a long hot day of lugging around picture frames an elderly women invited him in for some tea. She finished their conversation saying, “As you go forward just make sure, as much as you love the product you are selling, you love the people more.” She ended telling him, “Just so you know, I believe in you.” This woman and that conversation resonated with him and set the stage for his leadership philosophy.

Anthony moves on to discuss the building blocks of a great company. Most have trouble looking at life or a business as a marathon. Biases give us a sprint based mentality and more often than not it can be detrimental. When choosing a hire, hire someone with character over competency. Skills can quickly be taught, character cannot. Of course, there needs to be a level of competency but a person needs compassion, empathy, and overall great character. Competition and compassion can be enforced together and we don’t need to lose one to gain the other.

Shedding drama from your life and company is also mission critical and goes back to hiring based on character. Drama is a disease. When hiring someone, always ask yourself, “Is this person going to act or react?” After every interview Anthony says to ask yourself a few things: 1. Would you want to hangout with this person outside of work? 2. Do you respect the persons work? 3. Would this be a person you would be proud of? 4. Throw out reference checks. Ask them to give two or three examples of lower level people who they have influenced.

If you are in the being hired phase of your life rather than the hiring phase, you may be asking, “How do I get started?” Anthony’s #1 piece of advice is to find a good mentor to model after. Mentorship is a tricky thing though, so how should young people today navigate gaining a mentorship? All mentorships begin with a baseline of chemistry. If that isn’t there, it can turn into a negative experience rather than positive. Great mentorship is also about breaking down titles and speaking to each other on a human to human level. Also, the best mentors don’t just try and help you in the confines of your work. Mentors should not only be helping you out in business but also helping to find your calling or higher purpose.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Competency is not enough
  • Winner take all mentality
  • Mentorship
  • Value centric organizations
  • Pessimism vs. optimism
Jun 19, 2017

John Force is an American NHRA drag racer. He is a 16 time champion and his team has 18 championships under them. John is one of the most dominant drag racers in the sport with over 144 career victories and he is still pushing limits at 68 years old. John is considered the best. He is a premier example of making it happen with no excuses.

What drives John? He says, “At the end of the day everyone has to eat.” But beyond that, he simply loves what he does. He loves driving the cars and explains it as magic to him. It is that passion that has gotten him through crashes, burns and even fatalities among fellow racers and friends.

Passion may be what keeps him going, but it is a system that keeps him alive. There is an aspect of a cowboy attitude, however John has a checklist that he lives by. He has been driving for 4 decades and at this point he pokes fun at himself saying he is a trained monkey. It’s about sticking to what you have been taught and not veering too far from those teachings.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Funny car racing
  • Persevering through the negative
  • Having goals
  • Entrepreneurship
Jun 16, 2017

Mark Minervini is author of “Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market” and now his newest book, “Think and Trade Like a Champion: The Secrets, Rules and Blunt Truths of a Stock Market Wizard.” He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s “Stock Market Wizards.” This is Mark’s second appearance on the show.

Nature vs. nurture or the debate of whether a person is “naturally gifted” is one of the oldest debates out there. Mark says he was an “unnatural” when it came to trading and he was actually in the negative for the first six years when he started. Why did he keep going? He had a passion for trading and a bigger vision of what he was doing. Mark knew he had all the tools to trade for profit, just not all the experience yet. He believed in what he was doing, had a passion for it, took responsibility for his flaws and put the process before the results–that is why Mark thinks he has been able to thrive over the years. “If you do not think you can perform at a certain level, you won’t be able to perform at that level” explains Mark.

Trading ultimately doesn’t come down to talent, it comes down to a trader’s correct mentality. Everyone wants to win, but everyone doesn’t choose to win. Is your passion your priority? Sacrifice is essential when trying to obtain anything worthy and Mark shares some of the personal sacrifices he made to become who he is today.

Next, Mark explains what is known as “the trading triangle.” Your average gain, average loss, and percentage of wins is what is known as the trading triangle. Averaging those components makes up your personal bell curve. When Mark does workshops only 8-12% of people attending have an idea of what their average gains and losses are.

Michael and Mark end the podcast going over the pros and cons of diversification. Diversification is great until it turns into what Mark calls “di-worsification.” When traders and companies start to veer too far from their core values they can start to hurt themselves with diversifying. There are many benefits from diversification when done in the correct way. Good traders know when to step on the gas and have a strategy backing them up.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Process vs. outcome
  • Builder vs. wrecking ball mentality
  • Eliminating excuses
  • Neuro-linguistic programing
  • Sacrifice when obtaining a goal
  • Risk of ruin
  • The trading triangle
  • Diversification vs. Di-worsification
  • Sophistication and simplicity
Jun 12, 2017

Paul Singer is described as one of the smartest money managers. He has a 2.2B net worth. His perspective on trading mirrors trend following even though he is not a stated trend trader. Listen and learn.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Doom and gloomers
  • Macro economic perspective
  • Trump’s impact on the markets
  • Timing markets
  • The moment of right now
Jun 9, 2017

Jeff Goins is author of “Real Artists Don’t Starve: Timeless Strategies for Thriving in the New Creative Age.” Jeff dismantles the myth that being creative is a hindrance to success and reveals how an artistic temperament is an advantage in the competitive marketplace. Mindset, technique and understanding the right perspective is key, and Jeff helps get you there.

We all know there are staving artists in the world. We have told ourselves long enough that artists need to be struggling – that’s a myth. You can be creative and make money. Jeff uses an example of Michelangelo and how he was actually wealthy to the tune of about 47 million dollars. If the renaissance’s greatest artist was one of the wealthiest artists, then what does that tell us about today?

How did Jeff go down the path he is on now? Jeff is a big fan of apprenticeship and has always had the mindset that life is a classroom. Apprenticeship and observing how other successful artists have made a living is how you get started. Many find success by essentially stealing ideas from others and arranging it in a new, interesting and better way. Apple and Microsoft or McDonalds and In n Out are great examples of stealing from everyone around them and doing better. Look at your peers, the people in your industry and just do it better. Be persistent.

Another way to become a thriving artist is to own as much of your art as you can for as long as possible. Jay Z and Dr. Dre are two examples of this. You don’t let the label and manager take over you. Dre realized he didn’t want or need a manager, label, or partner in his company. It took him some time and going through a few learning experiences but he eventually established his own label on his own terms. Michael and Jeff end with a story about Disney and Pixar showing listeners that selling your art too soon can leave a lot of money on the table.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Apprenticeship
  • What is your life’s work
  • Being an artist in today’s world
  • Owning the title that you want for yourself
  • You are what you say you are
Jun 5, 2017

Michael Covel uses Richard Feynman to help break down the scientific method. Michael reads quotes from Feynman explaining it, then uses the scientific method to look at the recent actions of Tiger Woods highlighted in the news. Investing, money, and sports figures are examples of where people those sight of reality. Most do not make decisions based on the scientific method. They want to think that their sports hero is still a hero or they want to think they have not lost money in the markets just because they have not sold. People just want to be right. Ego and arrogance run amok.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Confirmation bias
  • Tiger Woods
  • Richard Feynman
  • The scientific method
Jun 2, 2017

Daniel DiPiazza is founder of the blog and podcast Rich20Something, which is also the title of his first book, “Rich20Something: Ditch Your Average Job, Start an Epic Business, and Score the Life You Want.” How did Daniel understand in his 20’s that he needed to make a big move to set himself up for life? He knew he needed something else. He wanted more than others were able to give him so he decided to start off on his own. His brand sprung up out of frustration.

Michael and Daniel spend time talking about the disadvantages of college. College can be one of the quickest ways to set yourself back a few years and get into massive debt. They seem more like zoo’s these days than places of education. Most kids think at the end of their school career, from kindergarden through college, there is going to be some big prize at the end. Usually there is massive debt and an entry level job waiting for you. Time spent in school should be about actual life skills, like how to manage money, rather than long hand algebra that most will never use. School has turned into a huge business that is more predatory rather than innocent.

Michael and Daniel finish the podcast breaking apart social media. When you compare technology and distractions in terms of pre and post internet, social media can be seen as a huge distraction. If you embrace social media as a different way to talk, engage, and communicate then it is easier to see it as a tool rather than a hindrance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Compounding money early in life
  • Rogue memorization
  • Non-linear networking
  • Getting a side hustle
  • Distraction
  • Ruthless prioritization
  • Social media
May 29, 2017

Michael Covel and Larry Tentarelli break open the newest edition of Trend Following and discuss details of the 5th edition. It becomes a challenge to continually “up the ante” and Larry confirms that Michael hit the mark on this edition. The book is double the size and broken down into three sections: Principles, interviews, and research. Michael and Larry discuss: Dunn vs. S&P, mechanical trading, fundamentals, Warren Buffett and his drawdowns, 200 day moving averages, Nate Silver and Harry Denton on prediction, large fund trading vs. small fund trading, John W. Henry, chasing tops and bottoms of the market, Paul Tudor Jones, price action, process and outcome, CNBC and Joe Kernen, and much more.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Is trend following dead?
  • Warren Buffett
  • Catching the bottom of the market
  • Prediction as a business
  • Price action
  • Process vs. Outcome
  • CNBC
  • Fundamentals
May 26, 2017

Eric Barker is founder of the blog, Barking Up The Wrong Tree. He provides science based answers and expert insight on how to be awesome in life. His newest work is “Barking Up the Wrong Tree: The Surprising Science Behind Why Everything You Know About Success Is (Mostly) Wrong”.

What happens to valedictorians after graduation? Valedictorians are great at following rules and not breaking outside the box. This gets them far in school but not too far in the real world. Studies have proven most who excel in school end up in structured non-pioneering jobs. Most entrepreneurs don’t follow the rules of school or society. They are also generally classified as creative people and therefore have huge obstacles to maneuver through. Most teachers say they love creative children but research shows those are the students hated most. They don’t sit still or follow direction well. Luckily, In today’s era it is easier than ever for those creative types to succeed. The internet has given ideas the opportunity to spread quickly and easier than ever before.

With ideas easily being spread, so are negative (and positive) influences. We are always more influenced by those around us than we realize: work colleagues, friends, people at social events… whoever you choose to surround yourself with will have a tremendous influence on your life.

Learning to accept failure is just as important as surrounding yourself with the right crowd. New opportunities and innovation springs from a person’s ability to fail. Doing everything the same way every time, will always get the same results. Pushing boundaries is critical otherwise you’re not working toward expertise, you are just practicing redundant behavior. Everyone loves to hear about the 25 year old billionaire because it doesn’t seem like there was much work involved but when you peel back the layers, you see the grit necessary in getting to their success.

One example of grit and sustaining the right mindset is a research project Eric did with Navy Seals. What stood out the most was their optimism. They have short term focus that keeps them optimistically moving forward. Personal, persistent and pervasive are the three P’s that if kept positive, you can produce optimism and grit. Navy Seals don’t look at a 60 day program and say, “I can have no sleep or food for 60 days.” Instead they say, “I can get to lunch” and then after lunch they say, “I can get to dinner.” It is a day-to-day survival mode rather than big picture. The big picture is too daunting.

Michael and Eric end the podcast discussing what Eric calls “the buffet.” How close are you to buffet food? How much are your friends eating? Are you facing the food, or are you facing away? All these factors play a part in how your life is modeled.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The entrepreneurial feeling
  • What makes valedictorians succeed
  • Filter leaders
  • Obstacles for creative people
  • Structure of story telling
  • Failure tolerance
  • Creating meaningful mentorships
May 22, 2017

R.P. Eddy is an American businessman, venture investor, former U.S. government official and former U.N. diplomat. He is currently the CEO of Ergo, a strategy and geo political intelligence firm. R.P. is also co-author of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.”

How did Fukushima happen? There were lots of Cassandras who knew there were issues. There were warnings thousands of years old, along with experts telling officials not to build the nuclear plant so low. Hurricane Katrina in the United States is another example where there were Cassandras who had the foresight to fix potential disaster, but were ignored. What would have happened if there was foresight to Saddam Hussein and the Kuwait invasion? A man named Charlie Allen had that foresight but was pushed aside.

With such credible people having undeniable evidence being ignored, this brings up the question: How does a dynamic change in government happen? It doesn’t. R.P. did a study finding that 1% of the public think for themselves to make informed decisions. As people turn on the T.V. or surf the internet they find biased information. It’s hard to sit down, find unbiased information and make opinions of their own. When we have Cassandras who come out with real data and information to make changes that can save thousands, it is hard to decipher if they are chicken little or the real thing.

R.P. profiled in depth Cassandras ranging from: Fukushima, Katrina, Madoff, 2008 collapse, the rise of Isis, and the invasion of Kuwait. In every instance the Cassandra went to the decision makers and asked the question, “Why are you ignoring all the data?!” The more outlandish the warning, the easier it is to be ignored. People who understand what is wrong with our brains, the ones who doubt themselves and double check data are the traders and leaders who thrive. Michael and R.P. end discussing nuclear weapons theory, North Korea, potential Cassandras, India vs. Pakistan, and why we should all stop and reassess the information that is fed us.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Indicators and warning
  • Analysis and foresight
  • Pax Americana
  • Fukushima
  • Corruption vs. competence
  • Bernie Madoff
  • Black Swans
  • 2008 collapse
May 19, 2017

Denise Shull is a performance and decision coach to traders and athletes. She is well known for her effectiveness in assessing performance under high pressure situations. Denise began her Wall Street career in 1994 as trader and desk manager on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. She was always fascinated by the psychology side of trading from the outset of her trading career. In 2015 she offered critical insight on how to put together one of the main characters of the hit show “Billions” on Showtime.

Denise has counseled an extremely wide variety of traders with all kinds of personalities and trading styles. However, at the end of the day everyone is human and all traders have common psychological threads which she points out. When Denise analyzes a client she tries to understand a sequence of feelings that person is making and what the patterns of their feelings are. At first it is just about her figuring out how a clients brain works, and then she helps them see the patterns.

What was the trigger for Denise to go down the path of studying the mind and human behavior? Starting from a young age she enjoyed observing and counseling friends. In her mid to late 20’s she started looking at her friends relationships and seeing that the people were all different but the scenarios were the same. A teacher helped point out a theory of Freud’s. Freud believed there is a critical period for attachment and self image when you are a child. Denise gives examples of how human reactions stem from a template made in the first 2-3 years of life.

Michael and Denise finish up talking fractals, psycho analytics, efficient market theory and compare notes on Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bio-psychology
  • Attachment theory
  • Neurosciences
  • Conviction as data
  • Fractal emotions
  • Efficient market theory
  • Self blame as a positive
May 15, 2017

The Yale Endowment is the crème de la crème. Nothing beats it? Their AUM is about 25 billion. Michael evaluates and reads some of the 2016 copy of The Yale Endowment. He wants listeners to decide if it is an example of how the best think, or if it is how one of the best operations self-describes themselves. Michael ends with breaking apart an excerpt from a presentation that David Swensen gave on his portfolio management strategy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Yale Endowment
  • Portfolio management
  • Black box trading
  • Mean variance analysis
  • Harry Markowitz
  • Passive index
  • Forecasting
May 12, 2017

Andy Molinsky author of “Reach: A New Strategy to Help You Step Outside Your Comfort Zone” is on the podcast. Everyone can learn better ways to push themselves and step outside of their comfort zone. Andy and Mike help show listeners how to get there.

If we can’t find ways to sacrifice comfort, how do we obtain future success? There is some truth to living on the edge of your comfort zone. However, sometimes it is perfectly OK to stay in your comfort zone, like trading in the stock market. There are times to play it safe and there are times to take the leap. Often there is a lot of work that goes into taking a leap that is commonly overlooked. Having a person to hold you accountable, push you, or just let you know when an idea is good or not can be a critical building block to your success.

How you execute an idea is also monumental to creating success. Taking uncomfortable steps is often necessary to get projects off the ground. Andy uses the story of Neil Kennedy as an example. Neil had a comparable website to Facebook before Facebook was around. He was shy and uncomfortable talking to venture capitalists and wasn’t able to move forward in getting his project off the ground. Because of this, Facebook succeeded and Neil failed.

Five core challenges to stepping out of your comfort zone that Andy points out are: 1. Authenticity challenge 2. Likeability challenge 3. Competence challenge 4. Resentment challenge and 5. Morality challenge. You may not experience all of these challenges but they are a nice road map to help single out your weak points. Mike and Andy finish up their conversation talking about presentations and how to engage an audience.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Stepping outside your comfort zone
  • Accepting failure
  • Creating challenges of yourself
  • Fear of failure as motivation
  • How to present in front of an audience
May 8, 2017

Today is another mega eclectic episode featuring Douglas Emlen, Toby Crabel, Robert Aumann, Ryan Holiday, Sally Hogshead and Michael Mauboussin.

Douglas Emlen is a professor at the University of Montana. He is the recipient of the Presidential Early Career Award in Science and Engineering from the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. He has also earned multiple research awards from the National Science Foundation, including their five-year CAREER award.

Toby Crabel is founder of Crabel Capital Management. His approach is very different from Covel’s, but there are some commonalities: price action driven, systems, models, risk management. Crabel works on a whole different timeframe than the typical trend follower, typically turning his portfolio over in less than a day. Crabel, a former pro tennis player, has a philosophical nature and discusses how he executes these philosophies in the trading world.

Robert Aumann is an Israeli-American mathematician and a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences. He is a professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel. Aumann is the 4th Nobel Prize Laureate in economics to be a guest on the podcast.

Ryan Holiday is an American author, writer, and marketer. He is the media strategist behind authors Tucker Max and Robert Greene, the former Director of Marketing for American Apparel and an editor-at-large for the New York Observer.

Sally Hogshead is an American speaker, author, former advertising executive, as well as the Chief Executive Officer of Fascinate, Inc. Hogshead’s newest book is “How The World Sees You: Discover Your Highest Value Through The Science of Fascination.”

Michael Mauboussin is an author, investment strategist in the financial services industry, professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Business, and serves on the board of trustees at the Sante Fe Institute (an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute). He is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advises clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Humans and animals
  • International hacking
  • Game theory
  • Economics
  • World champions of peace
  • The book writing process
  • Flow state
  • Personal branding
  • Multi-disciplinary thinking
  • Luck vs. Skill
  • Outcome bias
May 5, 2017

Jack Schwager is author of the Market Wizards series and just completed his second edition of A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Trading, Spreads, and Options. Jack has gone into great detail updating his 1984 original edition with over 600 pages of educational insights.

At the beginning of his trading career technical analysis never made much sense. However, as he worked in markets over the years, he came to see that those who used charts and technical analysis tended to make more money. He also saw that fundamental analysis almost goes against the idea of money management. He found that the same went for risk management: How does risk management work with a truly fundamental perspective? It doesn’t for most.

The basics of futures trading for most is fuzzy. Jack gives a short summation of the basics: 1. Futures are very liquid. 2. They trade for every type of instrument you could think of. 3. You can go short or long just as easy. 4. Futures are truly a zero sum game. 5. They are real markets and have real fundamentals pushing trends. 6. Basic trends do have some sort of rational behind them in futures markets and the skilled fundamental players will beat the unskilled players if they are good at assessing probabilities. Michael and Jack finish talking about trading as an art vs. science, whipsaws, failure to exploit major trends, drawdowns and the efficient market hypothesis.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamentals vs. Technical analysis
  • Risk management
  • Contrarian view on fundamentals
  • Charting
  • Science vs. art in trading
  • Whipsaws
  • Exploiting trends
  • Sharpe ratio
  • Efficient market hypothesis
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