The Trend Following Manifesto with Michael Covel
Trend Following (www.trendfollowing.com) is a world class research firm. Michael Covel serves as President. In 1996 Covel co-launched TurtleTrader.com. It has attracted millions of visitors. His first book is "Trend Following: Learn to Make Millions in Up or Down Markets". This must have classic is available in German, Japanese, Chinese (Traditional and Simplified), Korean, French, Arabic, Turkish, Portuguese and Russian. His second book "The Complete TurtleTrader" is the only narrative account of trader Richard Dennis and his student traders nicknamed the 'Turtles'. It has been translated into German, Japanese, Chinese (Traditional and Simplified), Korean and Russian. His newest books are "Trend Commandments" and "The Little Book of Trading". Covel's first film documentary is "Broke: The New American Dream".

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Syndication


Michael Covel talks to trader Larry Tentarelli. Tentarelli started trading his own account after leaving Merrill Lynch in 2003. Covel explores some of Tentarelli's influences: from Napoleon Hill (taking accountability for your own actions), to Jesse Livermore ("The money isn't made in the daily fluctuations; the money is made in the big swings"), to Ed Seykota ("everybody gets what they want"). You don't have to be a computer engineer or rocket scientist to come up with a trading system, nor do you have to have all the time in the world: Tentarelli spends less than 15 minutes a day on average trading his own programs. He also relates several "light bulb" moments he had that led him into trend following: from an investment in Chinese oil to reading about Tom Basso's experiments with coin flips to determine entry points. Further topics include the distinction between predictive and reactive technical analysis; the importance of connecting and asking questions to those who have more experience than you; and the idea of knowing what you want out of the market.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto051512.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:48 PM

Michael Covel speaks to Douglas Stewart of Sherwood Forest Capital Management. An education major in college, Stewart was introduced to the financial services world before ever entering the classroom as a teacher. Stewart started his career in finance around 1995, and he shares some of his experiences coming of age during the dotcom bubble. Once the bubble burst, he immersed himself for ten hours a day for several years studying books such as Jack Schwager's "Market Wizards", which led him to his lightbulb moment; he explains how this led him into the trend following space. Stewart also relates an interesting experience he had at a panel in November of 2008 where he explained, in song, how he wasn't able to predict the markets. Afterwards, an esteemed guest brought up Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan" - and somehow missed the point that Stewart was following the markets rather than following luck. This leads to conversation about how ego can hurt you in the trend following world, why a majority will never really want to adopt a trend following perspective, and the zen of accepting that you'll never be able to accurately predict where the markets might go.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto051012.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:43 PM

Michael speaks to Mark Melin, a managed futures expert, editor/writer for Opalesque, and author. Melin has become a defacto investigative reporter for the MF Global scandal. Covel and Melin consider the MF Global story from the very beginning, back to the very basics, and discuss the political context, why the story isn't front page news, and how it might effect you in the long run. A sobering conversation.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto050312.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:10 AM

Michael covers several disparate topics and brings them together into a basic trend following message about thinking clearly. First, Michael discusses former Lehmen Brothers veterans starting a "systematic innovative volatility fund". Michael cuts through the jargon and gets down to the core issue: at the end of the day, a trend following strategy has to be clear, and this one sounds confusing. Michael also discusses a newsletter from Hugh Hendry, although technically a fundamental trader, Michael brings up how Hendry might indeed be a "closet" trend following trader. Hendry's core ideas are important to trend following philosophy, such as taking control of your own destiny, and the belief that the unexpected will happen. "You're on your own, you must take ownership of your own destiny". Next, Michael talks about pain and how the latest Jack White single might give some insight into the pain you can find yourself in if you don't have clear thinking (a plan).

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto050112.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:27 PM

Michael Covel talks to Tim Pickering, founder/president and lead portfolio manager of Auspice Capital. Pickering has over 15 years of commodity and financial trading experience. Prior to forming Auspice, Pickering was Vice President of Options Trading at Shell Trading Gas and Power in the Houston and Calgary offices. He began his career at TD Securities in Toronto in their elite trading development program and gained experience in a wide expanse of capital market products including foreign exchange, bonds, money markets and derivatives. Ultimately, Pickering held the Senior Trader position for the energy derivatives portfolio. He has extensive experience trading OTC and exchange traded options, futures, swaps and quantitative trend following systems. Covel and Pickering discuss some of his beginnings, "black boxes", indexing, and classical vs. "next generation" trend following.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto042712.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:10 PM

Michael Covel interviews Thomas H. Basso, a trader who was called "Mr. Serenity" when he was profiled in Jack Schwager's "New Market Wizards". Basso was a stock and commodities trader who was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He is the author of two books, "Panic-Proof Investing" and "The Frustrated Investor". Basso became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998. Although he is now retired, there's no half-life for experience in the trend trading world, and Basso has a wealth of knowledge that is relevant to today's trader. Covel talks to Basso about the psychology behind his trading; how he kept his - and his clients' - emotions in check; and how being an entrepreneur can make you think differently. Basso also discusses his beginnings - buying his first mutual funds at age 12 - and how he moved from a chemical engineering position to his career as a trader and money manager. Further topics include how trading for clients can be different than trading for yourself, and the importance of concentrating on process vs. outcome. Enjoy!

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto042412.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:41 AM

Michael Covel talks to Damon Vickers, author of The Day After the Dollar Crashes, frequent guest on Coast to Coast & the Glenn Beck Show, and Managing Director & CEO of Damon Vickers and Company. Vickers has a very "Zen" outlook to both his life and to trading; he's a practicing Buddhist, and he discusses how this background applies to trend following trading. Vickers shares some of his beginnings - including a night involving a car accident which helped to lead him down the path he is on now. Topics include the "moment of now"; the importance of accepting the will of the market, and not your own; separating price from any societal preconceptions; and the difficulty of getting across a trend following perspective to the mainstream media. Vickers also discusses his book, The Day After the Dollar Crashes, and how it's important to separate the story from what the market is dictating.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto041012.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:30 AM

What does golfer Bobby Jones have to do with trend following? Michael discusses a new IBM commercial featuring Jones which has a number of ideas relevant to trend following - why the process is much more important than the outcome, and how you can't engineer predefined performance results. Consistency in your system, not trying to predict exactly how something might unfold, and sticking to the process are key concepts in trend following. Also: will the huge amount of data that you now have access to change how you approach the markets? Probably not - if you're a trend following trader. Michael discusses the difference between data and knowledge. A healthy dose of attitude throughout - no apologies.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto041112.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:18 AM

Michael Covel interviews original Turtle trader Michael Shannon. In a timeless archival interview given while doing research for his book, The Complete TurtleTrader, Covel talks with Shannon regarding Shannon's experience in the Turtle program with Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt. Shannon offers historical insights and anecdotes regarding the legendary Turtle story. Topics include Shannon's unlikely background; the personalities of Dennis and Eckhardt; why Turtles with outsider backgrounds were generally more successful; and whether or not Dennis and Eckhardt were inspired by the film, "Trading Places". In the second segment of this podcast Michael interviews trader and investor Jim Byers. In the 2006-2008 period, Byers started studying trend following; since then, he's started a fund with his partner, Todd Miller. Covel and Byers discuss how trend following can still be a winning game even if you aren't right the majority of the time. Further topics include more in depth "light bulb" moments that Byers has had since taking up trend following. Byers was also Michael Covel's first one-on-one in-person trainee: www.trendfollowing.com.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto040412.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:15 AM

Michael Covel talks to trader Charles German (of Charles German Capital Management). Charles has been trading for 20 years; he started when he was a teenager. Charles discusses two pivotal moments he had: one at age 19 which led to his beginnings in the Chicago pits, and one in 2008 after the real estate crisis which led to him trading full-time and adopting a full time trend following philosophy. He also shares a story about business politics which completely changed his life in the Chicago trading world. Further topics include risk management, optimal bet size, drawdowns (and why it's an unfair "scarlet letter" in the trend following world), analyzing the traders that have come before you, and trading in geographic isolation.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto032912.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:09 AM