Trend Following with Michael Covel

Michael Covel is the voice of Trend Following Radio with 2.5M+ listens. He is also the bestselling author of TurtleTrader & the classic Trend Following. Trading, economics, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests over 300+ episodes include Nobel Prize winners Daniel Kahneman, Vernon Smith, Harry Markowitz & Robert Aumann. More notable guests: Ed Seykota, Jim Rogers, Ewan Kirk, Larry Hite, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Jack Schwager, Marc Faber, Michael Mauboussin, James Altucher, Gerd Gigerenzer, Dan Ariely, Steven Kotler, Jason Fried, Sally Hogshead, Walter Williams and Tucker Max. All episodes always at www.trendfollowingradio.com/rss.
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Jan 26, 2015

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud speaks with Michael Covel on his second visit to the podcast. He is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique. Today, Covel and Bouchaud focus on Bouchaud’s co-authored paper, “Tail Risk Premia vs. Pure Alpha”. Additionally, Covel and Bouchaud discuss his firm’s performance for 2014; whether trend following actually “died” prior to it’s “reappearance” in 2014; what trend following manages to exploit; exploiting vs. exploring; looking at volatility as a precursor to profit; volatility as a measure of risk; trend following as a genuine market anomaly; the behavioral biases in play as oil has fallen fifty percent plus; the feedback Bouchaud has received from peers on his newest paper; whether other strategies exploit a genuine market anomaly; Bouchaud’s philosophy on transparency and "secrets" in his work; and why Bouchaud’s work culture is not a culture of MBA’s. Note: In this episode a white paper is mentioned. There are short (www.trendfollowing.com/cfm-short.pdf) and long (www.trendfollowing.com/cfm-long.pdf) versions. Receive a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Jan 23, 2015

Michael Covel speaks with Dan Hill on today’s podcast. Hill is a recognized authority on the role of emotions in consumer and employee behavior. He runs Sensory Logic, a scientific insights firm that analyzes consumers’ facial expressions to help companies better navigate consumers’ emotional decision-making processes. Before the interview, Covel discusses the Swiss Franc, David Harding, and trend following trading in his introduction. Next, Covel and Hill discuss what a face coding expert is; the evolutionary aspect to face coding and the 43 muscles present in the face; emotional decision-making; how Hill found his way personally into this field; why we feel before we think; being hired by the Milwaukee Bucks; the importance of a smile in the heart of a champion; the difference between technical skill and the factors that Hill is looking for; the importance of having the right amount of happiness; some of the limitations of facial coding; how technology is intertwined with facial coding; why a personality like Richard Nixon may never be President again; the say/feel gap; whether we can learn how to avoid negative facial expressions and emotions; a trading system based on the movement of human faces; and where we might see facial coding moving to in the future. For more information on Dan Hill, visit sensorylogic.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win. 

Jan 19, 2015

Michael Covel speaks with Mebane Faber. Faber is a a noted author (The Ivy Portfolio), blogger, and portfolio manager with Cambria Investment Management. Faber is involved in many different areas of the market, extremely practical and pragmatic. This is Mebane Faber’s third visit to the podcast and he and Covel discuss the podcast medium; trend following, buy & hold, and emotions; anti-fragility; Ray Dalio, risk parity, and his strategies All Weather and Pure Alpha; asset allocation as a buy and hold investor; Faber’s five ETF’s, and his factors for starting one; deflation, inflation, Japan, why traders run out of the store when things are on sale; value investing; and what if governments didn’t meddle with markets. For more information on Mebane Faber, visit mebfaber.com, cambriafunds.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Jan 16, 2015

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Daniel Simons. Simons is an experimental psychologist, cognitive scientist, and Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Illinois. Simons is most well known for his work on change blindness and inattentional blindness, two surprising examples of how people can be unaware of information right in front of their eyes. His research interests also include visual cognition, perception, memory, attention, and awareness. Covel relates all this to trading and trend following, particularly the price of oil in early 2015. Covel and Simons discuss Simons’ YouTube success; the definition of inattentional blindness; why our intuition about our own minds is often wrong; money managers and weather forecasters; serial tasking, multitasking, and focus; how Simons became immersed in this area of study; memory and attention, and the myths and misconceptions surrounding them; the notion of intuition. gut decisions, and Simons’ thoughts on Malcolm Gladwell’s “Blink”; the idea of preparation in relation to expert performance; the science behind eyewitness testimony; and how our minds don’t work the way we think they do. For more information on Daniel Simons, go to dansimons.com or invisiblegorilla.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Jan 12, 2015

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Mobius on today’s podcast. Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team which is based in 18 global emerging markets offices, and manages emerging markets portfolios. Mobius oversees a team of more than 50 people managing some $45 billion. Covel and Mobius discuss key events that happened along Mobius’ development and moved him to find emerging markets as his passion; growth across Asia; the importance of being on the ground to see what’s happening in China to have a true picture of what’s going on; why what’s happening in China now is entirely different from the USSR in the early 1980’s; Mobius’ view on Vietnam, its economic and constructional changes; the two Koreas, and whether we’ll see one Korea eventually; the impact of both North and South Korea on their own; Mobius’ outlook on Myanmar; Singapore as an emerging market, and as it is compared to a city in the States; India, its growth, and how Mobius sees it moving forward; and the importance of travel, and how it changes everybody that goes out there and experiences it. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Jan 9, 2015

Michael Covel opens up his first monologue of 2015 with a quote from Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory. There you have it: Willy Wonka completely outlining behavioral economics and proper investing all in a film about candy. Next, Covel quotes John Hussman’s recent piece regarding cognitive dissonance. Today, Covel has three examples of cognitive dissonance. First, Covel speaks of a recent case where a high school student was said to have made 72 million dollars. Of course, the story was false, but Covel explores. Many want to believe that these savants exist, but we all know the truth. Next, Covel discusses Hugh Hendry and why he now believes as an investor you have to sometimes believe in things that don’t necessarily exist. Good strategy doesn’t need to change based on the political winds blowing across the world. Next, Covel gives an example from a CNBC writer named Lawrence Delevingne who wrote recently on “hedge fund robots” doing well in 2014. Covel discusses these “robots” vs. “gut-driven human managers” and picks it apart. Why did trend following have such an excellent year in 2014? Covel explores and notes that trend following isn’t concerned with the previous year--it’s concerned with right now. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Jan 5, 2015

Michael Covel speaks with Bryan Caplan on today’s podcast. Caplan is an American economist and professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and blogger for EconLog. He works in public choice theory. His books include The Myth of the Rational Voter and Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids. He has also written extensively on open borders and pacifism. Covel and Caplan discuss voting, rationality; defining “rational irrationality”; what voting patterns in America might look like if the American stock market looked like the Japanese stock market; economic growth in benevolent dictatorships vs. republics like the USA; the anti-poverty program in China; Caplan’s view on immigration and its effect on the economy; the case for more kids, and why Caplan was so passionate and so inspired as to put out a book on the subject; why genetics matter more than the style in which you raise your kids; Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” and wealth and income inequality. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Jan 1, 2015

Michael Covel talks with Tom Basso, the trader most famously known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager's "New Market Wizards”. Basso, now retired from managing client money, was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. Basso became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998. Today, he is a privat trader. This is Basso’s fourth podcast conversation, and Covel and Basso talk about the 50% drop in oil and why trend followers have done especially well with this price movement; why people like to blame speculators, and the value of speculation; emotional rushes and emotional devastation; mentally rehearsing catastrophic events; focusing 1,000 trades into the future; separating your trading from your political opinion; trend following and behavioral economics; the importance of not letting your trading define you; and Basso’s advice to newcomers to the CTA industry. For more information on Tom Basso, follow him on Twitter at @Basso_Tom. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 29, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Manson on today’s podcast. Manson is an author and personal development consultant. Manson has worked with thousands of people from over 20 countries and his writing offers a different take on the self-help genre. Manson calls it “self help from a first person perspective”. He has sold over 15,000 copies of his book “Models: Attract Women Through Honesty” and almost 400,000 people read his site each month. He’s been published and quoted on CNN, Huffington Post, Business Insider, Yahoo! News, The Sydney Morning Herald and a variety of other publications. He is also the CEO and Founder of Infinity Squared Media LLC. Covel and Manson discuss why people are such ass----- on the internet; internet communication vs. real world communication; becoming desensitized to the internet; how Manson came to his entrepreneurial path and how he was inspired by “The 4-Hour Workweek”; location independence and how travel has changed Manson; consumerism in America; having an excess of choice in your life; the type of business Manson has developed and why it’s been successful; why certain approaches to dating aren't emotionally healthy; our bias against performers; and why Manson refers to himself as “self-help for people who don’t like self-help”. For more information on Mark Manson, visit markmanson.net. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 26, 2014

Michael Covel digs into the epic 2014 crude oil plunge and the profits that have followed (from the drop!). In breaking apart the issue Covel quotes Byron Wien, the Vice Chairman of Blackstone, on his oil predictions. What good is a prediction if it’s not even close to reality? If Wien can’t predict the price of oil how can the average investor? It’s that simple. Covel adds into the discussion the importance of cutting your losses, and why all successful traders do so. Building on taking a loss, Covel opens up catastrophic loss "imagination". Can you imagine a 75% drop in the stock market? Don’t be caught like the fundamental guys with no plan. Prepare for it. Covel also discusses why having a system means not having to be "definite"; having an approach based on the fact that you don’t know what is going to happen next; and why trend following has been buried in the mainstream media. The oil plunge in 2014 has been historic and offers a great example of trend following success in action. Would you like a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 22, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Charles Faulkner today on the podcast. Faulkner is an author, trader, and an expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. Covel and Faulkner discuss the notion of fictional people and why famous figures in finance are “fictional”; the importance of narratives, stories, and metaphors; the halo effect and deluding ourselves; the difference between a story and a strategy; the nature of independent thinking; herd behavior; ego, ignorance, and authority; the five different types of minds: the experiencing mind, the imaginative mind, the reasoning mind, the reflective mind, and the generative mind; system one and system two; why words don’t change people but experience does; experience base and the difference between amateur and professional traders; the two kinds of market wizards; language in the context of the five different types of minds; the importance of asking “how” does the market work over “why”; the importance of luck and time in the case of Warren Buffett; why you shouldn’t get your excitement from trading. For more information on Charles Faulkner, visit charlesfaulkner.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 19, 2014

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Zbigniew Hermaszewski & Natasha Reeve-Gray, two of the four founding partners of Altis Partners--a very successful systematic and primarily trend following money management firm. Covel, Hermaszewski, and Reeve-Gray discuss Covel’s recent experiences traveling in Asia; the advantages of location independence; early triggers that led Hermaszewski and Reeve-Gray into the systematic trading world and away from the efficient market hypothesis; why Hermaszewskii was motivated to go down the particular path he went down; the advantages of a physics background when applied to trading; looking for predicability in the markets; how Altis uses predictability in the context of their world; the four broad types of market behavior in Altis’ program; trend following and persistence; inter-market relationships; why there are no “manual” inputs in Altis’ systematic program; portfolio construction and why Altis is different from its peers; applying the same models to all markets; and the collegial atmosphere amongst London CTAs. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 15, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Jim Rogers on today’s podcast. Rogers is an American businessman, investor and author currently based in Singapore. He is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of Austrian School of economics. Covel gives some of his personal history with Rogers, noting that he also first read about him in the Market Wizards book. Covel also notes that Rogers’ Investment Biker book inspired him to travel. Covel joins Rogers for an in-person conversation from Singapore. They discuss why it shows that the kind of people that travel are the kind of people you want in your country; infrastructure in China; stereotypes of various countries in Asia; China’s military; current Fed policy in America; what “can-do” spirit can do in a state of decline; why the next crisis might be worse than the last; the importance of language skills; participating in big long-term bets with regard to countries; and why, if he could, Rogers would put all of his money into North Korea. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 12, 2014

Michael Covel presents a monologue and interviews Travis Jamison on today’s podcast. To start Covel reflects on the first 300 episodes of his podcast. He talks the start of the podcast, key guests and the overall uniqueness of the show. Covel also discusses massive September 2014 trend following performance, whether you can time the top, survivorship bias and the trend following is dead crowd. Next Covel talks with Travis Jamison. Jamison is the founder of Supremacy SEO. He’s a passionate entrepreneur, and a man known for high-level search engine optimization (SEO) chops. Covel and Jamison discuss search in general and search engine optimization; how the fascination with search triggered with Jamison; the idea of manipulation; Google and a monopoly, and some of the competition; Google’s dominance; Google’s definition of “quality”; the EPIC browser; the mindset of being honest on the internet; black hat and grey hat; Google’s penalties, and what can happen when you go too far; if there’s any recovery after being penalized by Google; competitors affecting SEO; Panda, Penguin, and Hummingbird: some of the Google updates; what the future might hold for search. For more information on Travis Jamison, visit supremacyseo.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 8, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Scot Billington and Jon Boorman on today’s podcast. Scot Billington is one of the managers of Covenant Capital along with Brince Wilford. Billington is the Chief Manager, Head Trader, and is responsible for all system development at Covenant. Covel and Billington discuss his firm’s exceptional performance in September of 2014; why low volume and low volatility tend to be accompanied by low returns; whether all of Billington’s trend following trading is predicated on a weekly system; Billington’s background and what got him into the systematic trend following space; why simplicity is the ultimate sophistication; marketing vs. trading reality; why certain investors try and disguise their trend following strategies as something else; why trend following is one of the most repeatable, teachable strateges; why the world still believes in the efficient market hypothesis; why trends continue to emerge as a function of the marketplace; the idea of a barbell strategy; and why upside volatility is not such a bad thing. Next, Covel talks with Jon Boorman in his second visit to the podcast. Boorman is the President and CEO of Broadsword Capital, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser in Charlotte, NC. Boorman has spent over two decades in global markets, witnessing first-hand some of the most tumultuous periods in financial history. Boorman started the Alpha Capture blog in January 2013 to keep a record of trading signals and market commentary, and demonstrate to a wider audience what could be achieved through trend following. The primary aim has always been to inform and educate. Covel and Boorman discuss the fear of public speaking; the idea of ego in the context of both trend following and buy & hold systems; why you’d seek to minimize rather than eliminate both ego and emotion in the context of trading; how Boorman and Jerry Parker connected and Parker’s early influence on Boorman; both Parker and Boorman’s views on exit strategies; how Twitter changes the level of access we have to each other; whether Boorman’s RIA might move into a fund structure; and process vs. outcome. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 5, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Emanuel Derman on today’s podcast. Derman is a South African-born businessman and writer, best known as a quantitative analyst. His books include My Life As A Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance as well as Models Behaving Badly. Derman is a Columbia University professor and formerly at Goldman Sachs. Covel and Derman discuss why economics can be an 'incestuous' field; economics as a moral science; why all four of the US investment banks were not allowed to go by the wayside; Derman’s background and his PhD in theoretical physics; Derman’s early eye-opening experiences at Goldman Sachs; model building, and how Derman was indoctrinated into the world of model building; the financial model and science and the physics model and science; short volatility models vs. long volatility models; how one estimates risk; models vs. theories; whether Derman finds a certain amount of pushback from others in the academic community. For more information on Emanuel Derman, visit emanuelderman.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Dec 1, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Gabriel Oettingen on today’s podcast. Gabriele Oettingen is a Professor of Psychology at New York University and the University of Hamburg. Her research focuses on how we think about the future, and how this impacts cognition, emotion, and behavior. Her first book is called Rethinking Positive Thinking. This is an interesting conversation for Covel--Oettingen is looking at data, just like traders would, but she is looking at data on motivation and positive thinking. Is too much positive thinking a problem? It can be. Is there a way to go about thinking about the future, and thinking positively? Oettingen has a framework and structure that can help us all. Covel and Oettingen discuss positive thinking, optimism and over-confidence; how positive thinking can reign in your sense of urgency; the effect of positive thinking on us from a scientific viewpoint; whether Oettingen views her work as an attack on the self-help industry; Oettingen’s process and how she views data; the WOOP (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan) process; understanding each component part of WOOP; “ah-ha” moments in Oettingen’s early development; the idea of WOOP as mental contrasting; non-conscious processes. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 28, 2014

Michael Covel interviews Ewan Kirk on today’s podcast. Kirk is the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation. Covel and Kirk discuss how consistent and predictable profits are the Holy Grail--you’re never going to get there. Covel and Kirk also explore Kirk’s background, and how someone with a PhD in mathematical physics ends up going to work for Goldman Sachs; why computer programming is “today’s literacy”; standing out from the crowd; trend following in the European scene vs. America; weighting positions based on risk; talking to clients and explaining that losses are statistically inevitable; whether the demand for discretionary traders is waning; how discretionary traders look at a trader like Kirk who is 100% systematic; why discretionary intervention in a systematic trading strategy disqualifies it from being truly systematic; proving a strategy as broken rather than proving that it’s right; why randomness is everything; uncertainty and convictions about technique; capturing the realism of the world in your trading strategy; what actually benefits the economy, society, and the world; seeking client feedback and understanding a client’s drivers; and the importance of consistent marginal improvements. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 24, 2014

Michael Covel interviews both Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink on today’s podcast. Gigerenzer joins Covel for his second appearance on the podcast. He is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy. Gigerenzer’s new book is Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions. Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer’s views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin’s ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk savvy and ordering in upscale restaurants, why Risk Savvy is an alternative to many other outlooks; the two tools to being risk savvy; the gaze heuristic and athletics; complex problems and simple heuristics. Next, Covel speaks with Brian Wansink. Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. His newest book is Slim By Design. Covel and Wansink discuss weight and obesity; our genes and environment as an effect on our health; “doing what skinny people do” and studying buffets; modeling the behavior of slim people; the advantages of chopsticks; the power of the grocery shopper of the household; triggers and tips to avoid unhealthy behavior that happens in restaurants; correlations between where you sit in a restaurant and eating choices; the three types of people in the context of nutrition; the influence of the environment on our eating habits; being slim by design vs. being slim by willpower; pursuing happiness vs. pursuing a purpose. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 21, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek on today’s podcast--two separate interviews back to back. Nigol Koulajian's firm is Quest Partners, LLC and is approaching one billion AUM. Koulajian has a very interesting take on trend following--specifically his take on replicating famous trend following strategies. Koulajian and Covel discuss Koulajian’s background and entrepreneurism within Lebanese culture; how Koulajian got his start, and how he found his way into the systematic strategies he employs today; the influence of Van Tharp; the importance of practices like transcendental meditation and yoga on the mental side of trading and in the context of Koulajian’s work today as a fund manager. the S&P 500 as a trading system; crowd psychology; replication strategies; price action as a trigger for different strategies; volatility, volatility compression, and why volatility is not the way to measure risk in the markets anymore; the Flash Crash; and trend following as a hedge to equity risk. Next, Michael Covel speaks with Donald Wieczorek. Wieczorek’s firm is Purple Valley Capital. Covel and Wieczorek discuss Wieczorek’s early track record; Salem Abraham; drawdowns; Wieczorek’s first exposure to trend following; why losing early in your trading career can be a good thing; why you don’t need to predict market movement to make money; Jack Schwager and the Market Wizards series; and why systematic trading is more than just the technical system. Next, Covel and Wieczorek break apart some of Wieczorek’s monthly performance windows (trendfollowing.com/don.pdf), picking apart the psychology and context of certain months in Wieczorek’s career. Covel and Wieczorek continue on to talk about correlation between famous trend following traders; volatility and risk; and the value of crisis alpha. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 17, 2014

Michael Covel presents “The State Episode” featuring interviews with Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith. State power and central planning are two of the topics on today’s show, and both guests love taking a stab at the state. First, Michael Covel speaks with Doug Casey. Casey is the founder and chairman of Casey Research, a provider of paid subscription newsletter services espousing libertarian viewpoints as the justification for the purchase of highly speculative microcap stocks, precious metals, and other investments. Casey and Covel discuss what it’s like having traveled to over 175 countries and where one can find social and economic liberty today in this world; the advantages of being a perpetual tourist; why Casey describes himself as an anarchist; if whether there is a purpose anymore to voting in the United States of America; loyalty to the country where you were born; those who rule out the possibility of a financial panic in the future; quantitative easing and currency debasement; and what was the trigger for Casey’s turn at life as a global traveler. Next, Michael Covel speaks with Charles Hugh Smith. Smith is an American writer and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site "Of Two Minds". Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites. Smith's economic works stress the value and efficacy of decentralizing power and wealth, the individual's power of self-determination and the value of community, which in his view has been diminished by the state. Smith and Covel discuss how winners and are being selected by the state as exemplified by the 2008 financial crisis; alliances between corporations and the state; why there might be an uproar if equity markets were not at all-time highs; what happens when the typical wage earner can no longer substitute debt for earned income; stagnant wages and tradable labor; building your life around non state controlled opportunities; the decentralization of power and wealth; and the reliance on secrecy in politics to avoid accountability. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 14, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Christopher Cruden on today’s podcast. Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management. Covel and Cruden discuss why price is an unimpeachable fact; early “lightbulb” moments that brought Cruden to the style of trading he practices today; the notion of going currency only; why Cruden’s program is akin to a raincoat in bad weather; riding increased volatility and increased directional trending; getting clients to understand that you cannot force a system to make money; benchmark selection and time period selection; why the S&P 500 is a trading system; performance drivers; the duration of trades; why if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it; how Cruden’s strategy would change if Europe reverted back to before the introduction of the Euro; how markets teach humility; why Cruden only trades once a day. For more information on Christopher Cruden, go to inschinvest.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 10, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Steven Kotler. Kotler is an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, Wired, GQ, Discover, Popular Science, Outside, Men’s Journal, Details and National Geographic Adventure. He is best known for his non-fiction books, including the New York Times bestseller Abundance, A Small Furry Prayer, and West of Jesus. His new book is The Rise of Superman. Covel starts off with a personal anecdote about his experiences with 'flow', and Kotler goes onto explain the topic based on Covel’s experiences. Covel and Kotler also discuss synonyms for flow; flow in basketball and other sports; group flow; pattern recognition; the neurological explanation for flow; the four stages of flow; why flow is not just a binary state; spiritual experiences compared to flow states; brain activity during flow states; the “deep now”; getting to the flow state with drugs; the flow state and the act of being on stage; why you need to take risks to get into flow; social fear, risk, and pain vs. physical fear, risk, and pain; method acting, screen presence, and flow; the military and flow research; risk and comfort; the balance between challenges and skills; getting comfortable with being uncomfortable; the fight or flight mindset; and future research into flow. For more information on Steven Kotler, visit flowgenomeproject.co. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 7, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Rzepczynski. Rzepczynski is a Founder and Chief Investment Officer at AMPHI Capital Management. Prior to co-founding AMPHI Capital Management, he was the CEO of the Fund Group at FourWinds Capital Management, where he oversaw alternative investments. Rzepczynski was also President and Chief Investment Officer at John W. Henry & Co., an iconic Commodity Trading Advisor. He is on the Advisory Board of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA), the Associate Editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments, and a former board member of the FIA Futures Industry Association. Covel and Rzepczynski discuss the advantages of podcasting as a format over traditional media outlets; why prices are “primal”; prices as a heuristic; Rzepczynski’s ah-ha moment that brought him to the heuristic of price; why a complex education doesn’t necessarily mean you should use a complex system; why knowing the reasoning behind price movement is unnecessary; VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous; VUCA in the context of portfolio management; the zen of trading and portfolio management; the importance of passion in investing; the notion of over-diversification; dynamic allocation; convergent vs. divergent; the improbability principle; tail events and preparing for the unexpected; the notion of systematic vs. discretionary; how trend following is represented in the mainstream media; complexity; risk and return; volatility and complacency. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 3, 2014

Michael Covel speaks with Alex Tabarrok and David Nott on today’s two-part podcast, which Covel affectionately calls “The Libertarian Episode”. First, Covel speaks with Alex Tabarrok, co-author of the Marginal Revolution website. He’s an economist at Covel’s alma mater, George Mason University. Covel and Tabarrok discuss China and the importance of teaching Chinese to American children; the greatest anti-poverty program in the world; the difficulty of improving the infrastructure of the United States; regulation and innovation; interest groups; benevolent dictators; the need for a democracy in an information age; innovation in the current American education system; why the American education system is focused on getting you to work for the man; women in the American education system; innovation, intellectual property and patents; the cumulative properties of innovation; grounds for optimism in the United States when it comes to innovation; how George Mason University became a libertarian economist hotspot; if Europe is following the path of Japan; why the European monetary union was a mistake; and why travel can create optimism. Next, Covel speaks with David Nott, president of The Reason Foundation--an organization that is all about free minds and free markets. Covel and Nott discuss The Reason Foundation and what it means to be a libertarian today; how Nott explains being a libertarian to people; how the actor and comedian Drew Carey came to be involved with The Reason Foundation; finding the optimism to stay focused on swaying people to the founding principles of our country; politics in China; the 2008 financial crisis, state control, and Reason’s response to the bailouts; common sense notions; pension reform; drug policy reform; the cultural policies surrounding prohibition; expanding the idea of liberty to younger people; Vernon Smith and Walter Williams. For more information on The Reason Foundation visit reason.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

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