Trend Following with Michael Covel

Michael Covel is the bestselling author of The Complete TurtleTrader & the classic Trend Following. He is the voice of Trend Following Radio, which hit #2 on iTunes investing with now over 2M listens. Top traders, economics, human behavior and entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests across 290+ episodes include Nobel Prize winners Daniel Kahneman, Vernon Smith, Harry Markowitz and Robert Aumann. More notable guests: Ed Seykota, Ewan Kirk, Larry Hite, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Jack Schwager, Marc Faber, Michael Mauboussin, James Altucher, Gerd Gigerenzer, Dan Ariely, Steven Kotler, Jason Fried, Sally Hogshead, Walter Williams and Tucker Max.
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Nov 17, 2014 0

Michael Covel presents “The State Episode” featuring interviews with Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith. State power and central planning are two of the topics on today’s show, and both guests love taking a stab at the state. First, Michael Covel speaks with Doug Casey. Casey is the founder and chairman of Casey Research, a provider of paid subscription newsletter services espousing libertarian viewpoints as the justification for the purchase of highly speculative microcap stocks, precious metals, and other investments. Casey and Covel discuss what it’s like having traveled to over 175 countries and where one can find social and economic liberty today in this world; the advantages of being a perpetual tourist; why Casey describes himself as an anarchist; if whether there is a purpose anymore to voting in the United States of America; loyalty to the country where you were born; those who rule out the possibility of a financial panic in the future; quantitative easing and currency debasement; and what was the trigger for Casey’s turn at life as a global traveler. Next, Michael Covel speaks with Charles Hugh Smith. Smith is an American writer and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site "Of Two Minds". Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites. Smith's economic works stress the value and efficacy of decentralizing power and wealth, the individual's power of self-determination and the value of community, which in his view has been diminished by the state. Smith and Covel discuss how winners and are being selected by the state as exemplified by the 2008 financial crisis; alliances between corporations and the state; why there might be an uproar if equity markets were not at all-time highs; what happens when the typical wage earner can no longer substitute debt for earned income; stagnant wages and tradable labor; building your life around non state controlled opportunities; the decentralization of power and wealth; and the reliance on secrecy in politics to avoid accountability. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 14, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Christopher Cruden on today’s podcast. Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management. Covel and Cruden discuss why price is an unimpeachable fact; early “lightbulb” moments that brought Cruden to the style of trading he practices today; the notion of going currency only; why Cruden’s program is akin to a raincoat in bad weather; riding increased volatility and increased directional trending; getting clients to understand that you cannot force a system to make money; benchmark selection and time period selection; why the S&P 500 is a trading system; performance drivers; the duration of trades; why if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it; how Cruden’s strategy would change if Europe reverted back to before the introduction of the Euro; how markets teach humility; why Cruden only trades once a day. For more information on Christopher Cruden, go to inschinvest.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 10, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Steven Kotler. Kotler is an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, Wired, GQ, Discover, Popular Science, Outside, Men’s Journal, Details and National Geographic Adventure. He is best known for his non-fiction books, including the New York Times bestseller Abundance, A Small Furry Prayer, and West of Jesus. His new book is The Rise of Superman. Covel starts off with a personal anecdote about his experiences with 'flow', and Kotler goes onto explain the topic based on Covel’s experiences. Covel and Kotler also discuss synonyms for flow; flow in basketball and other sports; group flow; pattern recognition; the neurological explanation for flow; the four stages of flow; why flow is not just a binary state; spiritual experiences compared to flow states; brain activity during flow states; the “deep now”; getting to the flow state with drugs; the flow state and the act of being on stage; why you need to take risks to get into flow; social fear, risk, and pain vs. physical fear, risk, and pain; method acting, screen presence, and flow; the military and flow research; risk and comfort; the balance between challenges and skills; getting comfortable with being uncomfortable; the fight or flight mindset; and future research into flow. For more information on Steven Kotler, visit flowgenomeproject.co. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 7, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Rzepczynski. Rzepczynski is a Founder and Chief Investment Officer at AMPHI Capital Management. Prior to co-founding AMPHI Capital Management, he was the CEO of the Fund Group at FourWinds Capital Management, where he oversaw alternative investments. Rzepczynski was also President and Chief Investment Officer at John W. Henry & Co., an iconic Commodity Trading Advisor. He is on the Advisory Board of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA), the Associate Editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments, and a former board member of the FIA Futures Industry Association. Covel and Rzepczynski discuss the advantages of podcasting as a format over traditional media outlets; why prices are “primal”; prices as a heuristic; Rzepczynski’s ah-ha moment that brought him to the heuristic of price; why a complex education doesn’t necessarily mean you should use a complex system; why knowing the reasoning behind price movement is unnecessary; VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous; VUCA in the context of portfolio management; the zen of trading and portfolio management; the importance of passion in investing; the notion of over-diversification; dynamic allocation; convergent vs. divergent; the improbability principle; tail events and preparing for the unexpected; the notion of systematic vs. discretionary; how trend following is represented in the mainstream media; complexity; risk and return; volatility and complacency. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Nov 3, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Alex Tabarrok and David Nott on today’s two-part podcast, which Covel affectionately calls “The Libertarian Episode”. First, Covel speaks with Alex Tabarrok, co-author of the Marginal Revolution website. He’s an economist at Covel’s alma mater, George Mason University. Covel and Tabarrok discuss China and the importance of teaching Chinese to American children; the greatest anti-poverty program in the world; the difficulty of improving the infrastructure of the United States; regulation and innovation; interest groups; benevolent dictators; the need for a democracy in an information age; innovation in the current American education system; why the American education system is focused on getting you to work for the man; women in the American education system; innovation, intellectual property and patents; the cumulative properties of innovation; grounds for optimism in the United States when it comes to innovation; how George Mason University became a libertarian economist hotspot; if Europe is following the path of Japan; why the European monetary union was a mistake; and why travel can create optimism. Next, Covel speaks with David Nott, president of The Reason Foundation--an organization that is all about free minds and free markets. Covel and Nott discuss The Reason Foundation and what it means to be a libertarian today; how Nott explains being a libertarian to people; how the actor and comedian Drew Carey came to be involved with The Reason Foundation; finding the optimism to stay focused on swaying people to the founding principles of our country; politics in China; the 2008 financial crisis, state control, and Reason’s response to the bailouts; common sense notions; pension reform; drug policy reform; the cultural policies surrounding prohibition; expanding the idea of liberty to younger people; Vernon Smith and Walter Williams. For more information on The Reason Foundation visit reason.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 31, 2014 0

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel interviews Frank Curzio and Robin Griffiths. First, Covel speaks with Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates. Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle. Next, Covel interviews Robin Griffiths, Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC. Griffiths comes at it from a technical perspective. Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths’ history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn’t hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 27, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Toby Crabel of Crabel Capital Management. Covel first reached out to Crabel, who is a short term systematic trader, in 2005. Crabel’s approach is very different from Covel’s, but there are some commonalities: price action driven, systems, models, risk management. But Crabel is working on a whole different time frame, turning his portfolio over typically in less than a day. Crabel, a former pro tennis player, has a philosophical nature and discusses how he executes these philosophies in the trading world. Crabel and Covel discuss Crabel’s history as a pro tennis player and the connection between tennis and the drive he has in the asset management field today; longevity and consistency in tennis and trading; where Crabel stands with the total number of systems he employs; the source of Crabel’s profits and the philosophy behind it; price action; winning and losing volatility; why Crabel needs price movement and volume; the idea of price shocks and the importance of being aware of them; the process of moving from high drawdowns to a much lower drawdown; the importance of diversity; early lightbulb moments that informed Crabel’s trading style; Crabel’s experience with Victor Niederhoffer; how the philosophy of Objectivism has informed Crabel’s life; the liquidity of futures markets; and the importance of persistence. For more information on Toby Crabel, visit crabel.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 24, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Alex Greyserman. Greyserman is Chief Scientist at managed futures firm ISAM. He is also a professor at Columbia University. Greyserman’s new book with previous podcast guest Kathryn Kaminski is titled Trend Following With Managed Futures. Covel and Greyserman discuss the idea of young college graduates writing articles about the death of trend following while firms like Greyserman’s continue to have tremendous success; alternatives to thinking only 'long stocks'; Greyserman’s first meeting with Larry Hite and how they have come to have such a career together; why trend following is about more than getting on the right side of the S&P trade; the difference between cross-sectional momentum and time series momentum; the phrase “crisis alpha” and why trend following does well in times of crisis; the cost of not having trend following in your portfolio; benchmarking and diversification; why the worst thing you can do is “trend follow a trend follower”; the science of trend following; speculation; trend following your life--not just the markets; dispersion among trend following traders; and the effect of a higher rate environment. For more information on Alex Greyserman, go to isam.com or visit Amazon to find his book with Kathryn Kaminski, Trend Following with Managed Futures. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 20, 2014 0

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Anthony Todd. Todd is the CEO of Aspect Capital, one of the most successful managed futures trend following firms. Todd co-founded Aspect in September 1997. Before that, he was with AHL. Covel and Todd discuss why prices aren’t random; finding an inefficiency that the academic financial community refuses to acknowledge; the idea of “predictable” patterns in the market; the desire to know static positions; how crowd behavior drives trends; addressing misconceptions; using fundamentals in a systematic way; defining Todd’s medium-term style of trend following; why “it’s less about the genius of the trade and more about the repeatability of the approach”; how long you can be in a particular market before you give up on it; client understanding of trend following drawdowns; the phraseology of “crisis alpha”; the culture that Todd has built at Aspect; and Todd’s advice to young entrepreneurs. For more information on Anthony Todd, visit aspectcapital.com. Receive complimentary trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 17, 2014 0

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Jason Fried. Fried is the founder and CEO of Basecamp (formerly 37Signals). Fried is also the co-author of the book Rework, which is about new ways to conceptualize working and creating. Fried and Covel discuss the first dollar Fried made online and other formative experiences; keeping business simple; making something more valuable than the dollars people give you; the intimacy of exchanging money; the idea of doing less than your competitors to beat them; building an audience; the “real world”; why an MBA program might not teach you much about entrepreneurism; corporate structure; focusing on what will not change; zen and the moment of right now; not focusing too far into the future; Fried’s experience with Jeff Bezos; and the idea of improvisation or “winging it” in business. For more information on Jason Fried, visit basecamp.com or follow him on Twitter at @jasonfried. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 13, 2014 0

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel interviews Roland Austrup. Austrup is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Integrated managed Futures, part of the IAM group out of Canada. Austrup’s firm comes at trading from a slightly different perspective: very systematic, but also using fundamentals systematically. Austrup and Covel discuss how Austrup got started in the industry, and whether he was always a “quant” thinker; early experiences with Ed Seykota; whether Austrup uses a systematic use of fundamentals or a discretionary use of fundamentals; why systematic can be frightening to certain people; managing risk and the return to risk profile; why Austrup targets a downside volatility of 13%; why “the returns will take care of themselves” if you manage risk correctly; trading trends and not market noise; being on the right side of a trend; the phrase “equity-like returns”; reviewing trend following performance in recent years; why Austrup’s strategy is not based on prediction; the importance of a broadly diversified portfolio; lack of correlation to traditional long-only equities strategies; and the current low rate environment. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 10, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Kathryn Kaminski on today’s podcast. Kaminski is deputy managing director the institute for financial research (SIFR) Stockholm Sweden. She’s also a contributor to CME Group. She earned her PhD at the MIT Sloan School of Management. At the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, she conducted research on financial heuristics in collaboration with Professor Andrew W. Lo. Her new book, with Alex Greyserman, is "Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha.". Covel and Kaminski discuss survivorship bias; Kaminski’s background and upbringing; convergent risk-taking strategies and divergent risk-taking strategies; social networking as an example of risk; Apple as an example of convergent/divergent; the importance of failure; the efficient market hypothesis, the idea that trend following is “voodoo”, and the lack of transparency in trend following; critics of trend following; Kaminski’s “ah-ha” moment with trend following; why trend following works in times of crisis; the adaptive markets hypothesis; looking at markets like ecologies; divergence and “punctured equilibrium”; the process of going back 800 years analyzing trend following; the idea of black boxes; and the acceptance of trend following. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 6, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Vineer Bhansali on today’s podcast. Bhansali is a managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO. His most recent book is "Tail Risk Hedging". He has 24 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in theoretical particle physics from Harvard University. His new white paper is out titled “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”. Covel and Bhansali discuss “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”; trend following in the classical sense; how trend following started to become part of the discussion at PIMCO; introducing new ideas to PIMCO, corporate culture, and to clients; the three hypotheses tested in “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”; currency trading and trend following returns; why larger trend following shops may have trouble getting into smaller markets; trend following across a diversified portfolio and classical trend following approaches; connecting Bhansali’s hobbies to the quantitative world; structure and thinking in terms of code; imagining and building simulations; being distribution aware; and why being at all-time highs is not the time to feel satisfied. To read “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”, visit PIMCO. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 4, 2014 0

Michael Covel talks with Joey Reiman and John Brenkus on today’s podcast. First, Joey Reiman, who runs Brighthouse, has been called the “father of ideation”. He’s emerged as the subject matter expert in the area of purpose inspired leadership, marketing, and innovation. His breakthrough purpose methodology and frameworks have been adopted by the likes of the Boston Consulting Group, Procter & Gamble, The Coca-Cola Company, McDonald’s, KPMG, and many other Fortune 500 companies across the globe. As an adjunct professor at the Goizueta School of Business at Emory University, he teaches tomorrow’s executives his revolutionary theories and applications for purpose-inspired profit. Covel and Reiman discuss Reiman’s background and mission in life; looking for meaning; figuring out your “why”; the process of teaching, and the areas where certain people may get tripped up; looking back to your beginnings; the destructiveness of outside voices; calmness and contemplation; solitude vs. aloneness; “money doesn’t create ideas--ideas create money”; why daydreaming isn’t necessarily a bad thing; creativity and environments; changing the world through changing your routine; routine and creativity; thinking with your heart as much as your mind; Apple vs. Google; raw talent, creativity, and environment; lucky people and “yes” people; the power of “slow”; and the importance of storytelling. The second part of this episode is with John Brenkus. Brenkus is the host of the ESPN show, Sport Science. Sport Science is an ongoing television series that explores the science and engineering underlying athletic endeavors. Anything about statistics and science has the potential to inspire Covel and with John Brenkus, he goes straight into it; Also discussed: what triggered the science and sports connection in Brenkus’ brain; science and martial arts; measuring human performance; why success doesn’t follow a straight line; Brenkus’ college experiences and how they are relevant to his work today; the idea of physical limits being reached; why Brenkus became a crash test dummy; the advantage of applying science to any aspect of life; and the Iron Man competition. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Oct 3, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Broadie. Broadie is the Carson Family Professor of Business and Vice Dean at the Columbia Business School. His research focuses on quantitative finance and sports analytics. His golf research has appeared in academic journals and many golf publications. He developed the new strokes gained approach to analyze the performance of amateur and professional golfers and worked with the PGA Tour on their implementation of the strokes gained putting stat. His newest book is called Every Shot Counts. Covel says: We all know about Moneyball. It looks like Broadie has carved out that niche for himself in golf science. Covel isn’t a huge golf fan, but when it comes to sports and science and statistics, Covel sees the trend following parallels. Covel and Broadie discuss how he became, in Covel’s words, the “Bill James of golf”; how Broadie connected his finance work to the sport of golf; why certain golfers win; why approach shots are the most important; “drive for show, putt for dough”; how Broadie started, the software he used, and how he got better data; whether Broadie had any sense of where the data might go when he first collected it; power as a separator; the connection between sports anaylitics, business analytics, and investing; the psychology of golf; first putts vs. second putts; the world golf rankings, and how these can be fixed. For more information on Mark Broadie, visit everyshotcounts.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Sep 29, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Larry Swedroe on today’s podcast. Swedroe is a Buckingham Asset Management principal. He is also a principal and co-founder of BAM Advisor Services, LLC, and serves as the director of research for both entities. Swedroe has authored or co-authored fourteen books and comes at investing from an evidence-based approach. Covel and Swedroe have different vantage points, but there are some commonalities in their thinking. They discuss forecasters and prediction; the three types of forecasters; confirmation bias; how your political affiliation might change your willingness to listen to forecasts; value perspective vs. momentum perspective; the anomaly of momentum; the evidence-based thinking approach; momentum trading in 2008; how Swedroe prepares for the unexpected; not treating the unlikely like it’s impossible; managing your risk; process vs. outcome; the equity risk premium and bear markets; commonplace crises; planning ahead; and diversification attempts to get outside of equities. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Sep 26, 2014 0

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel opens up relating a Bob Dylan lyric to uncertainty. You can’t tell what’s going to happen tomorrow; you can’t tell what’s going to happen to people in your life. You can just go with it--you can just keep on keeping on. But predicting tomorrow, thinking that you have an explanation as to how it’s going to actually unfold? You’re kidding yourself if you think you can predict tomorrow. People are paid a lot of money to pretend that they can predict tomorrow. But it is pretending, no doubt about it. Covel moves into his main topic for the day, noting that since March of 2009, stocks have taken off. It’s a massive trend--a trend following dream for stocks. Covel also sees that the fundamental guys look at the all-time highs with justifications. Trend followers have no justifications. There have been millions of words since March of 2009 written by fundamental traders justifying the all-time highs, and people get paid a lot of money to write these justifications. What will all those words count for if the S&P makes another 50% drop? How do you make a fundamental decision in the face of a game where fundamentally, the only thing you really have is “can you predict what the Federal Reserve will do next?” Covel also shares some words of wisdom from trend following trader Jerry Parker that he obtained through a recent email, as well as words from Tom Basso and David Cheval. These traders all agree on one thing: ride the trend. Building on these thoughts, Covel moves into talking about football, Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia Eagles, Hal Mumme, and Mike Leach. Covel uses this as a metaphor for why you can’t be a trend following trader in one market alone. So, if you can’t predict tomorrow, what can you do? You can take what’s given. You can take the trend that arrives. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Sep 22, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Richard Lewis. Lewis is the author of When Cultures Collide and When Teams Collide. He is a cross-cultural expert who has been studying language and communication his entire career. He’s traveled to 130+ countries and speaks eleven different languages. Why have a language and communications expert on a trend following trading show? Covel explains: We live in a complete and real world. You’re not just a trend following robot. There are many facets to life and the ability to communicate can’t be ignored. Covel and Lewis discuss how Lewis’ love affair with language started; the best way to start learning a language; travel as a “magic elixir” of sorts; the Lewis model; cultural differences in language, and what Lewis means by linear-active, multi-active, and reactive; the idea of losing face in the context of cross-cultural communication; microculture and macroculture; cross-cultural teams vs. homogenous teams; normal and abnormal in a cultural context; paperwork and punctuality in different cultures; why the linear-active person confronts with logic, the multi-active person confronts emotionally, and the reactive person is never confronting; and why there’s much more to making a deal than just quantity and price. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Sep 19, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Joel Mokyr on today’s podcast. Marc Andreessen, one of the founders of Netscape, tweeted that Mokyr was one of his heroes. This intrigued Covel, and hence his desire to have Mokyr on the show. Mokyr is a economic historian at Northwestern University. He focuses on technological progress, and how it affects growth. From Mokyr’s perspective, we haven’t seen anything yet. He’s not trying to predict what will happen next; he’s just confident and ready that big things will continue to happen. Covel and Mokyr define technology; the notion of playing God with technology; how technology and economic growth are intertwined; why screwing up is part of technology; the acceleration of technology; new ways of measuring growth; anesthesia and antibiotics as technologies and imagining new technologies as revolutionary as them; moving from a wheat and steel economy into an information economy; the factory, the separation between firm and household, and the Industrial Revolution; the death of distance; why technology is often not reflected in the GDP; solving the language barrier through technology; why the global acceptance of the English language is driven by technology; why innovation isn’t natural to us; the declining respect of the writings of previous generations; why the median age will continue to increase; why we are moving into a mass-customization society; changes in material science; and the best way to think about the future. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Sep 15, 2014 0

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel welcomes Guy Kawasaki. For those of you that pay attention to being an entrepreneur, Kawasaki’s books have been invaluable over the last decade. Currently, he is the chief evangelist of Canva, an online graphic design tool. Formerly, he was an advisor to the Motorola business unit of Google and chief evangelist of Apple. Covel and Kawasaki discuss a lesson learned from Steve Jobs: “Some things need to be believed to be seen.” Covel and Kawasaki also discuss why being a consultant or an investment banker are two of the worst first jobs you can get; working in sales, and Kawasaki’s early experience in the jewelry business; some of the most valuable attributes of a good salesman; marketing, social media, and why you’d want to have a rabid fan with fifteen followers rather than just another blurb on the back of your book from the so-called big name; why a book review in The New York Times isn’t as important as it used to be; the Amazon and Hachette conflict, and why Amazon is still the best thing to happen to authors in a long time; the two types of people in the world--baker vs. eater; how Kawasaki manages his time; looking at your social media presence as core to your existence; disruptive high growth opportunities; introversion and getting better at standing on stage. For more information on Guy Kawasaki, follow him on Google Plus. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Sep 12, 2014 0

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Rande Howell. Sometimes new and experienced traders only want to focus on the system--the rules. They forget the psychology and the mental aspects of trading. Howell has a therapeutic background combined with personal coaching in the fields of human potential and leadership. He has fifteen years of practice as a licensed professional counselor with a Masters in Counseling. Covel notes: if your mind is messed up, it doesn’t matter what system you have--you’re going to fail. Covel and Howell present an interesting conversation to get you in the spirit of the mind. Their topics include what the performance mind is in regards to trading; trading, emotions, and uncertainty; why irrational pessimism is deadly in trading; emotional regulation and mastering emotions; the blurry line between the casino and trading, particularly in Asia; euphoria vs. fear in a trading context; why what you’re afraid of owns you; Jungian archetypes; the Myers-Briggs instrument; biological threat vs. psychological discomfort; the mistake of using trading to measure your worth; getting your emotions right but your strategy wrong; why success in one endeavor doesn’t necessarily mean success in trading; the importance of patience; and the panther vs. the African lion. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Sep 8, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Dan Buettner and John Ratey on today’s podcast. In this two part episode, Covel explains that these two individual’s research is as important for your investing, trading, and entrepreneurial success as any one system, technique, or way of living you might have. Buettner is an American explorer, educator, author and public speaker. He holds world records for endurance bicycling. He is also involved in “blue zone” research and looks at demographics and longevity. John J. Ratey, MD, is an Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, research synthesizer, speaker, and best selling author. His book is called Spark: The Revolutionary New Science Of Exercise In The Brain. Bottom line, everything in your life can change with exercise. If you want to be a fantastic investor, trader, or entrepreneur and your body and mind is not in shape, you have to take a second look. With Buettner, Covel explores age and longevity; “blue zones”; epiphanies and lightbulb moments; “forgetting to die”; loneliness; stress; sacred daily rituals; napping and happy hour; sacred places; relationships and sex. For more information on Dan Buettner go to bluezones.com. With Ratey, Covel discusses exercise as the magic elixir for the brain; prescription drugs and anti-depressants; the joy of movement; exercising the mind; autism; BDNF (brain-derived neuropathic factor); and ADHD and exercise in children. For more information about John Ratey, go to johnratey.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.  

Sep 5, 2014 0

Michael Covel starts off today’s podcast by playing “Soothe Me”, a classic song. There’s no doubt about it: it’s soothing to have all-time highs in the equity market. Today, Covel wants a different perspective from what is out there in mainstream media. First, Covel talks about the S&P 500 index. The S&P is a trading system. It is a specific grouping of stocks put together with certain weightings and certain rules, and it trades in a certain way. And it has to stick to those rules. Covel talks about how the S&P is a system despite most people not knowing that it is one. Covel compares this system to a trend following system (and notes how trend following is applicable to stocks too). Covel talks about the dangers of correlation if you apply your trend following strategy to only equities, and the importance of diversification across different markets. Next, Covel looks at the S&P system vs. trend following systems in the context of crisis, and questions where the S&P would be without zero interest rate policy and Fed intervention. Is the S&P trading system that good that it will be at all time highs forever? Covel moves on to talk about black swans and anti-fragility in the context of the S&P trading system. Finishing up, Covel discusses absolute risk and relative risk. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win. 

Sep 1, 2014 0

Michael Covel speaks with Laurie Santos on today’s podcast. Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans. Covel and Santos discuss some of Santos’ early “ah-ha” moments; teaching monkeys about currencies; whether the monkey economy is as irrational as ours; the endowment effect; how monkeys’ behavior in markets quantitatively matches human behavior; whether some monkeys took to the experimental economy better than others; mistakes and predictable errors; why humans might be uniquely irrational when it comes to enjoying what we pay more for; Vernon Smith’s work; relationships between Santos’ work and the financial crisis of 2008; bubbles, monkeys, and Daniel Kahneman; the “G.I. Joe fallacy”; and why we have trouble accepting cognitive limitations rather than our biological limitations. For more information on Laurie Santos visit www.yale.edu/caplab. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Aug 29, 2014 0

Michael Covel welcomes Robert Aumann the fourth individual that has received a Nobel Prize in economics to appear on his podcast. Covel and Aumann discuss conflict and cooperation through game theory analysis; Aumann has a very interesting way of looking at the world via his game theory perspective. Aumann and Covel talk about his first experience meeting John Nash and Aumann’s early background; what game theory is trying to accomplish; the economic definition of rationality; the idea of a strategy matrix; the world champions of peace and the best way to maintain peace; the 2008-09 bailouts from Aumann’s perspective and a game theory outlook; behavioral economics; game theory, diplomats, and the Cuban Missile Crisis; the existence of nuclear weapons and the Cold War. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

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