Jul 29, 2013
Michael Covel talks about conversations he has had in the past 24 hours. Someone posted an equity curve of Bill Dunn against the S&P, and the criticism of the drawdowns began. They never talk about the S&P going down 50% twice in the past 13 years; they never talk about the NASDAQ going down 77%; they never talk about the NIKKEI going down 77%. It's always "trend followers have drawdowns". It's like a broken record. It's a surefire sign if someone starts telling you that they are either trying to push an agenda or they have no idea what they're talking about. Trend following is the meat and potatoes. Don't just trust Covel: look at the data. Next, Covel talks about advising people in their 20s against buying real estate. Many, many areas of real estate in the US that are underwater: are all of these people simpletons, dummies? Or did they get caught up in the greed and the fear of a bubble, and a black swan hit? Covel goes on to talk about black swans, zero interest rate policy, and bubbles (and why there is a way around it all). Next, Covel talks about nurture vs. nature. Of course, when he talks about nurture vs. nature, the Turtle story must be brought up. Covel plays two excerpts: one from NPR's Planet Money and another called "Enroll Yourself In The Genius Factory", which gets at the idea of how people develop talent. Covel discusses the peers of Richard Dennis; emotional intelligence; and trend following in the context of nurture vs. nature. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.