Feb 15, 2013
Michael Covel returns for his first podcast since going abroad in Southeast Asia. Currently in Thailand, Covel catches us up on where he's been so far. He notes the history of past conflicts in the area and his thoughts from a mountain view six-thousand feet above the ground looking onto the landscape below. Since leaving the US Covel has especially enjoyed not paying attention to the news coming from America. The idea of noise is afterall pointless from a trend following perspective. If you can get away from it, either physically (like Covel) or mentally, it's a good idea to eliminate it in your life. Along the lines of what's needed and not needed, Covel plays a video called "What Do Prices Know That You Don't?", a clip from a Duke professor that discusses relying on price to make decisions. Even though the video doesn't come from a direct trend following perspective, it illustrates the danger of too much information. It's easy to play the game of waiting for one more news report, watching one more episode of Bill O'Reilly, or trusting the promises of one last politician. That's where we are right now: we're in a game. So, if you are in a game, how do you navigate it? What do you do? What decisions do you make? And what happens when the game doesn't go the way the government has said? So, what lies ahead? Covel reads a piece of writing from Transtrend's newsletter regarding the role of the government and what you can expect, followed by a piece from John Hussman. Both readings seem to agree on one thing: something will happen at some point. Are you prepared? Or do you just want to just trust that the government will forever be able to prop up the market? Hussman makes the point to not follow prices, which Covel disagrees with--if the Chinese stock market is going up, you want to be long. The issue isn't what to do in a market that's going up; the issue is having an exit strategy. Covel's view is to be long and be happy in a rising market, but have an exit strategy. That's the solution. If you can't wrap your arms around that you might think about getting out of the markets completely. Even if you don't ultimately adopt a trend following strategy, if you're going to be trading, it's of dire importance to understand the concept of trend following. It's essential to have it in your arsenal of tools. Covel wraps up and shares some other observations about Asia, his upcoming presentations abroad, announces an upcoming audiobook version of The Complete TurtleTrader, and discusses what you can expect from the podcast in the coming months. Want a free trend following DVD? Visit trendfollowing.com/win.