Nov 16, 2012
Michael Covel analyzes a recent interview from famed trader Hugh Hendry of Eclectica Asset Management given at the Buttonwood Gathering held by The Economist. Hendry is not a trend following trader--at least publicly--and Covel gives some insight on how some very important trend following ideas have made their way into Hendry's work. Unlike Covel's comment on David Harding's interview from several weeks ago, this analysis is not about the skewed media perception of trend following, but rather how big name traders like Hendry use trend following philosophies in their trading, even if they would deny the label. Stick with it as Hendry talks about some of his fundamental views, because the trend following principles sneak up on you later in the interview. A narrative and a story is important in trying to sell yourself, and some of Hendry's thoughts belie the fundamental perspective on trading he presents to the public; Covel helps to read between the lines and see the underlying trend following thread inherent in Hendry's work. Covel comments as Hendry gives his thoughts on central bank manipulation and the consequences of those actions; how Hendry doesn't want to hear from the ridiculous analysts that can't help you in buying, selling, allocating to assorted markets in your portfolio, having a bet size strategy, and having a risk management strategy; how he made 50% in October of 2008 (and how this leads Covel to believe some trend following strategies might have been employed); and how Hendry is a student of uncertainty.