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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 15+ million listens. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trading -- all passionately explored and debated. Guests include Nobel Prize winners: Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Oliver Hart, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. More guests: Jack Canfield, Howard Marks, James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. 1200+ episodes.

Dec 19, 2013

My guest today is Gerd Gigerenzer, the director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, and a former professor of psychology at the University at Chicago. Gerd is also the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy (read David Harding the head of trend following firm Winton Capital).

The topic is heuristics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Uncertainty
  • Comparing decisions to baseball (gaze heuristic)
  • Complex problems and simple solutions
  • Using price action as a decision making cue
  • Unconscious heuristics
  • The art of knowing what one doesn’t have to know
  • The less is more effect
  • The miracle on the Hudson River a few years ago as a case in point illustrating heuristics
  • The idea of an adaptive toolbox
  • The element of surprise in Gigerenzer’s work
  • The distinction between risk and uncertainty
  • Intuition vs. rationality

Jump in!


I’m MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I’m proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.

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