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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 10+ million listens. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trading -- all passionately explored and debated. Guests include Nobel Prize winners: Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Oliver Hart, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. More guests: Jack Canfield, Howard Marks, James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams.

Jul 30, 2013

My guest today is Alpesh Patel, a hedge fund manager, Financial Times columnist and Bloomberg TV presenter.

The topic is his book How to Win at Spread Betting: An Analysis of Why Some People Win at Spread Betting and Some Lose.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Comparisons betweens stocks and futures
  • What the winners have in common
  • Trade frequency, and why active traders tended to do better in Patel's study
  • Buy & holders vs. spread betters
  • Academic vs. practical insights
  • Whether Patel finds himself at odds with other Financial Times writers
  • Why people like to imagine that trend following and momentum trading doesn't exist
  • Patel's experience as an expert witness with "trend following on trial"
  • Why the average person has difficulty with betting small, cutting losses, and letting winners ride
  • George Soros, game theory and trading psychology
  • Win/loss ratios
  • A coin flipping experiment performed with Ph.D's, the importance of position sizing, and why systems aren't everything
  • Why gut instinct is the opposite of what professional traders use

Jump in!


I’m MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I’m proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.

To start? I’d like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here:

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