Wed, 8 August 2012
When shouldn't you take a bet? Michael Covel talks about the importance of waiting, and of not doing anything if there's no move. It's not smart to have a trading strategy that says, "I must make a certain amount each day". You must wait, be patient, and have a plan, but not act if there's nothing to do. Trend following puts you in the position to benefit when something big or unexpected happens, and teaches you that when you're put in the right position, you jump on it. Covel talks about the importance of waiting, and how the best strategy to employ is to follow price movement. Covel excerpts a TED talk from Baba Shiv regarding when it's the right move to take the figurative "passenger seat" instead of the "driver's seat". Shiv's example is based on medical decisions, but this extends to every facet of life--especially trading. Baba Shiv reduced it to the simplest factors, and with trading it's a good idea to do the same. In this case, it's price. Reducing yourself to the passenger seat in following price movement is the best move you can make, and Covel explains why. Don't follow the news, don't follow the tweets; follow the price. Covel also discusses an article in the Wall Street Journal from Robert Shiller, talking about a home price rebound. Shiller discusses house prices, whether we're at the bottom, and momentum. Momentum (the tendency for prices to keep moving in the same direction) is caused by "feedback loops" according to Shiller. Covel contends that the article states that we need to make another fake bubble to make everyone happy again. In the article, Shiller also contends that momentum doesn't apply to the stock market, but is exclusive to the housing market. Covel notes that, of course, the same feedback loops and the same momentum does happen in the stock market. While it's great that Shiller makes these observations about momentum, bubbles, and feedback loops, you can't predict these things. You have to have a strategy to take advantage of them when they do happen. Special Offer: receive free DVD delivered to your home or office: www.trendfollowing.com/free.html.