Trend Following with Michael Covel (general)
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.

Scott Belsky is an American entrepreneur, author and early-stage investor best known for co-creating the online portfolio platform, Behance, Inc. He is author of several books with his latest being “The Messy Middle: Finding Your Way Through the Hardest and Most Crucial Part of Any Bold Venture.”

How did Scott get started as an entrepreneur? He started his first business with two partners selling paper products. He bootstrapped his way through the industry for the first few years – accepting no outside help. It wasn’t until five years into building his company that he had to move in the direction of needing to raise funding. However, at that point Scott and his partners had already built their company at their own pace and on their own terms.

When starting a new business there are a lot of questions that come up: How do I prepare for the long term? How do I hire someone? How do I fire someone? How do I structure team communication? How do I become a better decision maker? How do I continue to make a better product? Scott’s new book is a guide to help answer all these questions.

Uncertainty may be one of the biggest roadblocks in deciding to start a business. What does uncertainty mean to Scott? Uncertainty is a burden that must be processed continually. The more you embrace doing something on your own, the more you will learn how to cope and process that fear.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Seth Godin
Entrepreneurship
Enduring lows and optimizing highs
Uncertainty in business
Starting a business
Staying engaged
Self awareness

Direct download: 695.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ken Kocienda was a software engineer/designer at Apple for over fifteen years and is now the author of “Creative Selection: Inside Apple’s Design Process During the Golden Age of Steve Jobs.” After being introduced to the internet in 1994 he taught himself computer programming and made his way through a succession of dot-com-era startups, before landing a job at Apple in 2001. He worked on software teams responsible for creating the Safari web browser, iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.

Ken entered college with the mindset of becoming a history professor or even a photographer. He had various interests in college, however none of them were in the technology sphere. He moved to Japan after college for a few years and upon moving back to the United States, he was introduced to the internet for the first time and instantly intrigued by it.

Ken interviewed for Apple in spring of 2001 before the iPod had been released--Apple was still relying on the Mac as their main revenue stream at the time. Ken had loved Apple products since he saw his first Mac in 1984 so when he was hired on at Apple it was surreal. His first job was to make Apple a web browser of its own – what we all know as Safari today. Later, in 2004, he joined the team to make the software for the iPhone’s touchscreen operating system, among other products.

Inspiration, collaboration, craft, diligence, decisiveness, taste and empathy are seven attributes Ken uses to describe how Apple became the success story they are today. Steve Jobs and Apple chased perfection and demanded nothing short of it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Pyramid of demos
Steve Jobs thought process
Apple company philosophy
Completely present in the moment
Reality distortion field
Creative selection
Green Bay Packers and Vince Lombardi

Direct download: 694.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Terence C.M. Tse is an educator, speaker, advisor and commentator. He is a co-founder of Nexus FrontierTech and co-author of “Understanding How the Future Unfolds: Using Drive to Harness the Power of Today’s Mega Trends.” His mantra is “You can’t predict the future, but you can be ready with a plan.”

Terence’s book focuses on a term he calls “Presentcasting.” He does not promote forecasting but rather teaches people to look at what’s in front of them and see how things are unfolding in current time. He has created the acronym DRIVE – defining 5 interrelated mega trends: demographic and social changes, resource scarcity, inequalities, volatility, complexity and scale and enterprising dynamics. These are the five directions Terence points clients in when they start thinking about improving their lives.

What is one way to step outside the box and get a better look at trends unfolding? Travel. Traveling is crucial to seeing the speed in development and change happening around the world. Desire to climb the economic ladder is not exclusive to one culture or another. Everyone is looking for the same economic wealth. Most cultures promote the desire to get a college degree, however this leaves young adults lacking the ability to take risks. The education system trains students to study, take exams well and work in certain defined jobs. However, in today’s world learning how to deal with uncertainty, have an entrepreneurship mindset, and take a little risk are the skills that will help young adults get ahead an prosper.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Preparing of uncertainty
Entrepreneurship
Economics abroad
New technology
Rise of the internet
Disappearance of white collar jobs
Student loans

Direct download: 693.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Bob Woodward Spins John Belushi with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 692.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Gregory Aldrete is a professor of history and humanistic studies at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay, where he has been teaching since 1995. His emphasis is on rhetoric and oratory, floods in Rome, ancient Greek and Roman history, and daily life in the Roman world. What was life like in ancient Roman times? How did people do things in the ancient Roman Empire? These questions are what fascinates Gregory and keeps him moving forward in his research.

What relevance does ancient history have to us today? We are ever presently walking in the footsteps of those who came before us and until you understand the history of prior civilizations, you cannot fully understand who you are. It is the blunders and the achievements of our ancestors that have built up what we see today. There is not much that can be taken away from talking heads in the news and on Twitter, but much can be learned from the study of history.

How does Gregory describe a military blunder? To be a true blunder, the situation must have been avoidable. It could have or should have turned out a different way, but because of someone’s mistakes it didn’t. One of the biggest failures of leadership, which consequently leads to blunders, is overconfidence. Michael and Greg give examples of catastrophic blunders ranging from the Battle of the Little Big Horn to Napoleon and Hitler.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Butterfly effect
Overconfidence in leadership
Napoleon’s biggest blunder
Battle of the Little Big Horn
Hitler
D-Day
Technology and understanding its potential

Direct download: 691.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Speed with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. Michael goes back to his archives for two of the fastest men in the world. Risk takers extraordinaire!

Direct download: 690.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Safe is Not Really Safe with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 689.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Bob Enck is the CEO of Equinox Funds and has overseen all operations at the fund since March of 2007. Prior to joining Equinox Funds, Bob worked for about 20 years with large, highly regulated health care organizations including Bristol-Myers Squibb as well as with more entrepreneurial venture capital funded organizations.

When was Bob exposed to trend following for the first time? What was his a-ha moment? While he was doing merger and acquisition work, a couple of his friends consistently would ask him to look over literature from their firm to get input. His first exposure to trend following came from that research. The concept of trend following clicked with him and “just made sense.” His real light bulb moment was realizing that Equinox funds could make money in up and down markets. His friends soon asked him to join their company as CEO.

What is so unique about Equinox Funds? They have paved the way in researching and developing alternative investment strategies for clients through unique investment vehicles. They created the first multi-strategy managed futures mutual fund–the Frontier Fund. In a field where many companies tend to become complacent and set in their ways, Equinox brings innovation and creative thinking to the market. Bob and Michael explore the full range of issues across the alternative space.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trend following in up and down markets
Drawdowns
Trend following performance
Discretion
WTF
Forecasting

Direct download: 688.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Peter Leeson is an economics professor at George Mason University and is known for connecting rational choice theory with unusual domains. He looks at human behavior as a series of puzzles that are being solved by those involved. He focuses his studies on everything from bizarre rituals and superstitions to the behavior of Caribbean pirates. Peter’s work has also been quoted as “Freakonomics on steroids.”

How does Peter come up with some of his “crazy” ideas? He likes to have a broad library to read from, particularly history books. As he reads he comes across a lot of practices that may seem outlandish to most, but fascinating to him. From there he digs deeper and finds meaning in certain practices through religion, economics, politics, etc.

Throughout Peter’s work it is clear that the main motivator driving behavior is incentives. What happens when we have government incentives vs. private incentives? Michael and Peter finish the podcast talking government intervention, wealth creation and cultural behavior driving capitalistic efforts.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Somalia pirates
Anarchy vs. government
Medieval law and order
Trial by jury
Logic of incentives
Street hustlers

Direct download: 687.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Brooks Koepka has won three major golf championships in the last 14 months. He has had the emotional fortitude to push through the obvious pressures of being on the top, especially for being only 28 years old.

Brooks wasn’t able to go pro right out of college and moved to Europe to get his PGA tour card. He wasn’t thrilled about having to go overseas to get his chance at the pros in the U.S., but with a chip on his shoulder he used that as motivation to push forward, excel and win championships.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Emotional fortitude
Operating outside the system
Extreme focus
Cryptocurrency crashes

Direct download: 686.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Lawrence Krauss is a theoretical physicist and cosmologist, professor at Arizona State University, director of its Origins Project and author of bestselling books: “The Physics of Star Trek” and “A Universe from Nothing.” He is an advocate for science based data, public policy based on sound empirical data, and scientific skepticism. His goal is to reduce the influence of superstition and religious dogma in popular culture. His most recent book is “The Greatest Story Ever Told–So Far: Why Are We Here?”

When did Lawrence first discover he was a skeptic, someone who would think outside the box? He was encouraged to think for himself from a very early age. He grew up Jewish but slowly grew out of ideas that surrounded the religion. No real a-ha moment, just gradually decided that religion wasn’t something he could believe in. In 6th grade he also began doing poorly in school. His parents moved him to a different school where he subsequently did much better. Lawrence knew that he wasn’t a different person, but it was other people’s expectations that wavered how he performed. From then on, he was conscious of not letting others opinions of him bring down his performance.

Richard Feynman has played a large role in Lawrence and his studies. He is a great example of someone who did not let other’s hinder him. Feynman was charismatic, intelligent, and excited about all things new – he didn’t rely on other’s opinions. The charisma Feynman possessed, combined with the genius of his science made him the legend.

How does Lawrence describe science? It is a process rather than a collection of facts. Science helps to establish what is true from what is non-sense. It also breaks the sensible from the non-sensible. Lawrence brings this mindset into religion taking a controversial stance saying, “God is completely irrelevant to science.” He fiercely believes that the idea of religion was created as a way to explain how the world worked before we had the technology and science to know how it actually works.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Big bang theory
Religion in science
Simulations
Skepticism

Direct download: 685.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

While Michael was visiting the United States recently his assistant sent him some inspiring old Time Magazines and Saturday Evening Post Magazines. Some that particularly stood out? A 1959 Time Magazine with a story about Nicolas Darvas and a 1976 Time Magazine profiling Richard Dennis when he was 27 years old. These two men laid so much of trend following thinking and to see some original articles in print was inspiring.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Modern American male
Trend following fundamentals
Philosophy behind trend following
Black swans
Fundamentals
Ego in trading

Direct download: 684.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Gabriel Radvansky studies mental model theory for human memory and cognition. He strives to understand how people create, organize, store and retrieve mental models. Also, how younger and older adults differ on their use of mental models.

What triggered Gabriel to study cognition memory? He was hooked from the day he took his first introductory psychology class. His teacher’s description of what a psychologist did instantly caught his attention and from there he knew the path he wanted to go down. His original major in college was physics, he then switched to AI computer science and moved into psychology. Because of his other majors, he comes at psychology from a scientific approach.

Gabriel has done extensive research on how a person’s environment changes ones memory. Why does walking through doors make you lose your train of thought? Moving from one environment to another, your brain naturally wants to leave some things behind and pick up new things. Different rooms represent different memories and your brain has been trained to adapt. Humans have the same type of trigger when it comes to computer windows and stories within a book – when a character goes from one location to another, information gets forgotten and lost.

Memory is not about the past – we have memories so we know what to do now, and to help us know what to do in the future. What helps one memory stick more than another? The more emotion linked to a memory, the more vividly you remember those events. Memories with an emotional consequence trigger better and faster than those with no emotion linked to them. What are some steps you can take to help your memory? Write things down and have as many broad experiences as you possibly can.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Event cognition
Work environments
Forgetting curve
Long term vs. short-term memory
Environments where our brains learn best
Memory research

Direct download: 683.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Trend Following Deep Dive with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Direct download: 682.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Bradley Campbell is a sociologist whose research focuses on moral conflict — clashes of right and wrong and how they are handled. His work primarily looked at genocide arising from large-scale interethnic conflicts , but recently he has begun to examine smaller-scale conflicts on modern college campuses. Since about 2013 he has studied the phenomena of micro aggression complaints, calls for trigger warnings and safe spaces. He views this new era as, “Manifestations of ongoing moral change and the clash of different moral ideals.” He addresses these topics in his book, “The Rise of Victimhood Culture: Micro aggressions, Safe Spaces, and the New Culture Wars.”

How did Bradley shift from macro aggression and genocide around the world to micro aggression on college campuses? He was always interested in answering, “Why do people have conflict? And what causes someone to handle that conflict in a particular way?” How are conflicts handled with the legal system? When someone has a grievance, do they avoid them? So what makes someone choose violence over law or avoidance?

With every generation, comes a different way of being taught how to handle conflict. Where one generation may have been taught to have thicker skin and not take things so seriously, today’s kids have been taught to take offense to every micro insult that might make them feel uneasy. Where there is more equality and in places that value diversity, there tends to be more sensitivity to insults – therefore lots of micro insults tend to add up to big offenses.

Are college campuses a place that should display robust conversation? Or should they be a place where free speech is censored? Bradley argues that, if anything, college campuses should encourage free speech. Unfortunately, words are being viewed as literally violent and should be censored. Michael and Bradley end the conversation on where college students stand on Trump and politics today.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Hate crimes
Genocide
Micro aggression
Macro aggression
Victim culture
Trigger warnings
Trust in government
Safe spaces
Free speech

Direct download: 681.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:11pm EDT

“Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions” by Gerd Gigerenzer is one of Michael’s favorite books from the last 10 years. Today, Michael reaches into the archives and plays an interview with Gerd Gigerenzer.

Gerd is a psychologist who studies the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making and investigates how humans make inferences about their world with limited time and knowledge. He is director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Daniel Kahneman vs. Gigerenzer’s views
Heuristics vs. statistics
Medical check-ups
Taking risks
Instincts vs. expert advice
Relative vs. absolute risk
Benjamin Franklin’s ledger
Heuristics
Unconscious intelligence

Direct download: 680.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Jeffrey Miron is an economist, served as chairman of the Department of Economics at Boston University, currently teaches economics at Harvard University, and holds the position of Director of Economic Policy Studies at the Cato Institute.

Jeffrey came to be a libertarian from an economics standpoint rather than philosophical, with Milton Friedman at the helm of his influencers. What got Jeffrey heading down the liberty path? Economics teaches that there are unexpected consequences with interventions. Jeffrey randomly started working on drug legalization in college and came to the conclusion that ramifications of outlawing anything would apply to all markets whether it be guns or drugs.

America spends about 50 billion a year as a country to fight drug laws- couple that with missing out on 50 billion a year in taxes if drugs were legalized and one can see the economic missteps. In addition, studies show there would be a decrease in crime, corruption and less interruption of people being able to use drugs medicinally with drug legalization. Michael and Jeffrey not only touch on the economics of libertarianism in America, but around the world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Cato Institute
Libertarianism
Bootleggers
Ramifications of drug prohibition
Modern Chinese commerce
Ripple effect of bankruptcy
Bernie Sanders campaign
Donald Trump campaign

Direct download: 679.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

A Peaceful Easy Feeling with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 678.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Mark Blyth is a political scientist from Scotland and a professor of international political economy at Brown University.

What influenced Mark early on? John Maynard Keynes was his foundation. He also was growing up through the permanent recessions of the 1980’s and learning first hand about pitfalls in the economy. He quickly saw how the macro economy was so much different than the micro and how studying the economy as a whole was more important than just looking at the individual.

Mark called the Donald Trump win for Presidency in June of 2016. Why? Trump was willing to acknowledge there was a problem. He was dramatically different and played to the individual rather than big business. In 2015 Wall Street bonuses were twice the amount of the total wages of people earning minimum wage. Since that 2015 statistic, the inequality has only gotten greater. Trump gave people hope that things can change – that he could change them.

What are some macro steps that can get the U.S. economy heading in the right direction today? Dissolve monopolies and raise corporate taxes creating long-term productivity gains. Because of tax ride-offs a monopolized economy has been created. The government has allowed and engineered large businesses to run America and it’s time to re-arrange the model. Another problem? Americans have become dependent on passive investing and don’t know what to do when volatility happens. They have become blind to risk, due to lack of volatility for the last 10 years. Michael and Mark end on the question: “Can the economy sustain the next 10 years like this?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trump campaign
Raising interest rates
Tax cuts
Infrastructure
General data protection regulation
Black swans
Passive investing
Efficient market hypothesis

Direct download: 677.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Markets and Profit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 676.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Jerry Muller is a professor of history at The Catholic University of America, where he has taught since 1984. His latest book is “The Tyranny of Metrics.” Quantifying metrics can be a good thing, however, it can easily go too far and have great consequences.

Jerry sees pitfalls of focusing too much on metrics everywhere – schools, hospitals, even venture capital. Children gear their learning toward beating a test rather than intellectually developing their mind. Doctors fixate on standardized performance measures, rewards and punishment, and publicized accountability. The system encourages and sometimes requires doctors to game the system. Venture capitalism, the very field where creativity should prosper, tends to foster an anti-creative atmosphere. Investors want to see data to back up a new product so they can see proof of a future profit. The problem? New innovations don’t have data because they have never been seen before in the marketplace.

Using metrics in schools, hospitals, and business can be extremely useful depending on what context it is used, but alone they are not enough. Human development as well as human experience should be weaved into the equation. Michael and Jerry finish the podcast up talking metrics in China, how it has lead to gaming the system and taken a toll on developing research.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Intrinsic motivation
Tyranny of metrics
Metric fixation
Metrics in law enforcement
Metrics in health industry
Managerial ideology
Powerpoint presentations
Metrics in China

Direct download: 675.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael plays three epic interviews with Ed Seykota, Martin Lueck and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud profiled in chapter’s 12, 13 and 14 of his newest edition of Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets.

Ed Seykota was originally profiled in the classic book “The Market Wizards.” Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years.

Martin Lueck holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University and currently is the Research Director and President of Aspect Capital. Lueck was originally with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded with Michael Adam and David Harding.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Govopoly
Systems trading
Diversification
Behavioral economics
Death of trend following
Exploiting vs. exploring
Behavioral biases
Risk

Direct download: 674.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Christopher Ryan is best known for co-authoring “Sex at Dawn.” The book deals with the evolution of monogamy in humans and human mating systems. In opposition to what the authors see as the “standard narrative” of human sexual evolution, they contend that having multiple sexual partners was common and accepted in the environment of evolutionary adaptedness.

What was the start of Christopher going doing his path? One of the more pivotal moments was when he was an undergraduate in college. He was able to skip his junior year of college and subsequently hitchhiked to Alaska. Before that journey to Alaska, he thought the world was a dangerous place. Once he got outside his bubble and met strangers, he learned how kind and generous people were. It shifted the way he thought about life and the world.

After graduating he spent his 20’s and 30’s backpacking through Asia and South America. His a-ha moment was realizing that most of what he was told about the world was bullshit. Governments have an agenda and prop up their society to make other places seem less superior. Christopher quickly saw that the cultural message telling us that it’s a “dog eat dog world” was not true.

There are different attributes that everyone shares. What is universal? What do we all share? Consciousness, sexuality, comedy, etc. these are all things that translate across cultures and continents. Learning about these things is what excites Christopher and why he continues to learn, study and teach.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Monogamy
Hunter and gatherer society
Agricultural revolution
Culture of women sexuality
Sexual transmitted disease
War on masturbation
Social groups

Direct download: 673.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael shares the Preface and Chapter One of his book, “The Complete TurtleTrader.” “The Complete TurtleTrader” is a classic nature vs. nurture story starring famed traders Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt. Are people born with the innate ability to trade? Or can it be taught? Dennis believed that anyone could be taught to trade successful with the right set of rules, Eckhardt disagreed – and from there this epic experiment was born. These men took 23 novice traders, gave them millions and taught them how to be successful on Wall Street.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Nature vs. Nurture
Efficient markets
Beating the market
Systems trading
Behavioral finance

Direct download: 672.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Bryan Caplan is an economist and professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and blogger for EconLog. Bryan has written several books–his newest being “The Case against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money.” His main goal for the book is for people to forget education propaganda, look at what is right in front of them and examine what they have learned first hand.

From a young age Bryan always wondered, “Why do I need to learn this stuff? I am never going to use it.” The further he got along in school the more passionate he became about that belief. Yet it wasn’t until he started studying economics that he found there were other like-minded people who thought how he was thinking.

What is the problem with everyone getting a college degree? To stand out you now need to get another degree. Credential inflation has only gone up. People are spending too many years studying subjects that do not interest them, just to graduate and never use that information again. They get multiple degrees to do a job that would have only taken a high school diploma 30 years ago. It has been ingrained in so many that the education system enriches lives. However, the wall between formal education and practical education is ever growing. Bryan doesn’t hate education, he just believes people need to be more realistic about their interests and learning capabilities.

Michael and Bryan finish up discussing Bryan’s new books coming out about poverty and immigration policy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Affirmative action
Equality without losing quality
College vs. no college
Problem solving vs. memorization
Inert learning
Integrating more play in schools

Direct download: 671.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT

53% of Millennials expect to become a millionaire at some point in their life. That is a lot of optimism without a lot of math. Building off that survey Michael quotes some research from a man named Ned Davis titled “Was I too Correct for My Own Good.” Ned is more pessimistic than the Millennials. He see’s the present economy as an uphill battle for making money rather than Millennials who think the money will just fall from the tree’s.

If you can stand outside the crowd and accept the notion of failure you have a great opportunity to succeed over the course of a lifetime. Imagining you are going to make a million dollars without a process is obtuse. Have a good process and stick with it. Michael ends with wisdom from “The Wisdom of Insecurity: A Message for an Age of Anxiety” by Alan Watts.

Direct download: 670.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Harvey Silverglate is an events attorney with 51 years of experience practicing in courts throughout the country. Harvey is the co-founder of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education where he serves as the current Chairman of the Board of Directors. He is also author of “Three Felonies A Day: How the Feds Target the Innocent.”

What is Harvey’s current view on the President? He is not a Trump supporter, but does not agree with Robert Mueller and how the legal system is systematically trying to pin him. What Trump has done may be politically unpalatable to some, but he is not doing anything illegal. Harvey uses Mueller to show how an overreaching prosecutor bent on getting his agenda done–get’s it done. Justice, for the most part, has nothing to do with the American legal system today.

Harvey feels we are in an era where people look at the law in an objective way rather than with passion. Colleges pump out politically correct lawyers afraid of standing for what they believe in. Harvey is fighting to reverse that trend.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trump vs. Mueller
  • Overreaching prosecutors
  • Motivations of law enforcement
  • Flaws in the justice system
Direct download: 669.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT

Why do people love preliminary polls? How did we get to the point where people believe polls are the end all? Prediction in a world that has become chaotic and unpredictable is a waste of time. Is it media that has perpetuated it? Focusing on the actual election day results, or in trading terms – the price, allows you to not be preoccupied with surrounding noise.

Michael replays an interview he recently had on Porter Stansberry’s podcast. Porter is a value investor and Michael, of course, comes at trading from a trend following perspective.

Prediction

Value strategy

Trend following strategy

Price action

Diversification

Direct download: 668.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Timur Kuran is an economist, professor of economics and political Science, Gorter Family Professor in Islamic Studies at Duke University and author of “Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification.” His work spans economics, political science, history, and legal studies.

Timur is responsible for coining the term “preference falsification.” So what is preference falsification? It is the act of misrepresenting ones wants because of social pressures. There is a movement going through colleges where students feel they are being suppressed. They don’t feel they can express themselves because of fear they may be called a racist, sexist, etc. Despite America being seen as a country of freedom and self-expression, 90% of students feel they cannot speak freely or engage with professors and other students in lively debate.

What was the a-ha trigger moment that pushed Timur toward working on preference falsification? It happened while he was a PhD student studying economics. While learning about different theories, he looked around the classroom and knew not all of the students agreed or accepted the theories being taught. He felt uncomfortable himself challenging his professor and knew there was more to how he was feeling and how his classmates seemingly felt. This stayed in the back of his mind throughout his PhD program and he decided that after graduation he would start working on his new theory.

Timur uses the 2016 U.S. election between Clinton and Trump as an example of preference falsification. Trump showed he wasn’t afraid to take on the establishment, no matter how high up they may be. He challenged the media, a war hero, and other politicians and made them look like victimizers. Trump understood “the thinkable” and “the unthinkable.” By tapping into unthinkable thoughts that had never been articulated by other politicians, Trump gave hope to millions of people who otherwise may have discounted him. Timur also uses the 2011 Egyptian uprising as well as the caste system in India as other examples.

Direct download: 667.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Aaron Brown is a finance practitioner, expert on risk management and gambling, speaks frequently at professional and academic conferences and author of “Red-Blooded Risk,” “The Poker Face of Wall Street,” and co-author of “A World of Chance.” He was Chief Risk Manager at AQR Capital Management and one of the original developers of value at risk.

At 8 or 9 years old Aaron would read the newspaper everyday just to see the sports and Wall Street numbers. Over time, he started to see patterns in those numbers and felt he might be able to make money off it. He came across a book at his library that mathematically proved he could “beat the house.” At age 14 Aaron knew he could walk into a poker game and walk out with his opponents money. He gambled into his early 20’s until he realized the real money to be made was on Wall Street.

How does Aaron define being a quant? Someone who makes calculations and then bets on those calculations. Clients are drawn to Aaron because he is known for being able to solve problems most cannot. That being said, he only takes on problems where he knows there is a solution. When hired, Aaron disrupts systems mainly because he operates on the opposite side of Wall Street. He unveils flaws in systems – disrupting sales and creating more work for developers.

Michael and Aaron finish up discussing, “What is a black swan event?” It is a low probability, high impact event because it was unexpected. Drawing from Nassim Taleb’s wisdom, “People over estimate the last event happening again and underestimate the next crisis.”

Direct download: 666.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Cyrus Farivar is a Senior Tech Policy Reporter at Ars Technica, radio producer and author of “Habeas Data: Privacy vs. the Rise of Surveillance Tech.” Cyrus sees the privacy battle as an ever winding, never-ending road. Privacy is hard, national security is hard, law enforcement is hard but Cyrus is optimistic we can strike a good balance between all three.

Do we really know the extent to which we are being watched? Probably not. Surveillance technology affects us all – for better or worse. For example, nearly half of Americans are in facial recognition data bases. In addition, most Americans have a drivers license, identification card, or passport – putting just about every adult into a government system.

Does this mean privacy is dead? Not necessarily. Some things will continue to be private. Cyrus lays out some companies that build their whole business model around keeping the information of their clients secure from any outsiders – whether it be a private citizen or the government.

Having heightened security and better technology has it’s advantages and disadvantages. Obvious disadvantage? Loss of privacy. What is one advantage? Law enforcement can not only use surveillance to catch bad guys, but it can also be used to keep themselves in check. Just about every person has a phone with great video technology. Everything is recorded and everything can be seen. Michael and Cyrus end the conversation discussing the controversy around aerial surveillance and private use of drones.

Direct download: 665.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT

@Naval is an angel investor Michael follows on Twitter. Michael shares a Twitter post he had titled: “How to Get Rich Without Getting Lucky,” weaving in his commentary throughout. The bullet points:

1. Seek wealth, not money or status. Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. Money is how we transfer time and wealth. Status is your place in the social hierarchy. 2. Understand that ethical wealth creation is possible. If you secretly despise wealth, it will elude you. 3. Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games. 4.You’re not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity - a piece of a business - to gain your financial freedom. 5. You will get rich by giving society what it wants but does not yet know how to get. At scale. 6. Pick an industry where you can play long term games with long term people. 7. The Internet has massively broadened the possible space of careers. Most people haven't figured this out yet. 8. lay iterated games. All the returns in life, whether in wealth, relationships, or knowledge, come from compound interest. 9. Pick business partners with high intelligence, energy, and, above all, integrity. 10. Don't partner with cynics and pessimists. Their beliefs are self-fulfilling. 11. Learn to sell. Learn to build. If you can do both, you will be unstoppable. 12. Arm yourself with specific knowledge, accountability, and leverage.
13. Specific knowledge is knowledge that you cannot be trained for. If society can train you, it can train someone else, and replace you. 14. Specific knowledge is found by pursuing your genuine curiosity and passion rather than whatever is hot right now. 15. Building specific knowledge will feel like play to you but will look like work to others. 16. When specific knowledge is taught, it’s through apprenticeships, not schools. 17. Specific knowledge is often highly technical or creative. It cannot be outsourced or automated. 18. Embrace accountability, and take business risks under your own name. Society will reward you with responsibility, equity, and leverage. 19. The most accountable people have singular, public, and risky brands: Oprah, Trump, Kanye, Elon. 20. “Give me a lever long enough, and a place to stand, and I will move the earth.” - Archimedes 21. Fortunes require leverage. Business leverage comes from capital, people, and products with no marginal cost of replication (code and media). 22. Capital means money. To raise money, apply your specific knowledge, with accountability, and show resulting good judgment. 23. Labor means people working for you. It's the oldest and most fought-over form of leverage. Labor leverage will impress your parents, but don’t waste your life chasing it. 24. Capital and labor are permissioned leverage. Everyone is chasing capital, but someone has to give it to you. Everyone is trying to lead, but someone has to follow you. 25. Code and media are permissionless leverage. They're the leverage behind the newly rich. You can create software and media that works for you while you sleep. 26. An army of robots is freely available - it's just packed in data centers for heat and space efficiency. Use it. 27. If you can't code, write books and blogs, record videos and podcasts. 28. Leverage is a force multiplier for your judgment. 29. Judgment requires experience, but can be built faster by learning foundational skills. 30. There is no skill called “business.” Avoid business magazines and business classes.

Direct download: 664.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

All fundamental data, insights, and prediction, reduces to price. Price is the foundation for all trading. Michael caught a reminder of this in a recent twitter debate with Elon Musk. A NBC reporter challenged Musk on his insights and wanted him to come by the news room to have an interview and see his “process”. Michael reads the debate between the reporter, Musk and Scott Adams (creator of the Dilbert comic strip). Michael weaves his commentary and insights throughout.

Direct download: 663.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Daniel Klein is a professor of economics at George Mason University and an Associate Fellow of the Swedish Ratio Institute. Much of his research examines public policy questions, libertarian political philosophy, and the sociology of academia. He is the chief editor of Econ Journal Watch.

When did Daniel first embrace the idea “liberty”? He was dissatisfied with the school system for most of his childhood. A friend asked him “Have you ever thought about why school sucks?” His friend explained that students don’t get to choose where they go to school, there is no private ownership, schools don’t have choice in curriculum etc. He quickly saw the system as a socialist operation and suddenly “Why school sucked” all made sense to him. This gave way to him falling into a free economic market, libertarian, and Austrian Economics way of thinking.

Into college he gradually discovered Adam Smith, David Hume, and other 18th century thinkers. Through research he saw that the word “liberal” was not used in a political sense until about the time of Adam Smith. People had thought of ideas associated with liberalism but when Smith came out with “The Wealth of Nations,” he finally put a name to this way of thinking. Regardless of whether people agreed with his politics or not, his ideas spread throughout the world.

To really understand the arc of liberalism throughout the years it is important to learn what happened in the past and see the progression. Today, terms such as “The left”, “Dem”, and “Progressive” are all terms that have been adopted by others to accept liberalism.

Direct download: 662.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Agustín Fuentes is a primatologist and biological anthropologist focusing largely on human and non-human primate interaction, pathogen transfer, communication, cooperation, and human social evolution. His most recent book is “The Creative Spark: How Imagination Made Humans Exceptional.”

How did Agustín begin studying anthropology? From an early age he loved trying to figure out what made people tick. By studying other primates and what human ancestors did, he came to find that we are creative and imaginative in ways people didn’t think we had the capacity for.

Agustín found that through innovation, collaboration and creativity learning happens. What are some examples of innovation from our ancestors? Fire is one of the most basic, yet amazing discoveries of our ancestors. No species on the planet, besides humans, use fire. Use of fire gave humans the opportunity to change the composition of materials to mold utility items, change food composition, and provide the opportunity to break the day and night cycle.

Collaboration can be seen in instances of warfare. Are we inherently violent? Yes. Humans have the capacity for intense violence. However, when studying warfare, it is all about collaboration and putting your life on the line for the greater good of the army – not about who has the most violent army. Collaboration is the bottom line in when it comes to winning a war.

Once people were able to convey information with language, huge advancements were able to happen in creativity. In the last 100,000 years or so art happened, and humans were able to convey imagination. Speech and hearing coincided with art and showcased our capacity for creativity. Michael and Agustín finish the podcast talking diversity. Throughout the ages, diversity has been the norm for humans. When you get outside of your bubble, and explore the world a little, you see first hand the immense differences in advancements and innovation throughout cultures.

Direct download: 661.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Frank Conway is host of the Economic Rockstar podcast. Michael made a recent appearance on Frank’s show and shares it today on his podcast:

  • Origins of trend following
  • What is trend following
  • Trend following performance
  • Eugene Fama
  • Momentum
  • TurtleTrading
  • CNBC
  • Bitcoin
Direct download: 660.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Shane Snow is author of “Dream Teams: Working Together Without Falling Apart” and the bestseller, “Smartcuts.” Shane is also an award-winning journalist, celebrated entrepreneur, and co-founder of Contently.

When thinking about great teams we often think of just the best players. Shane uses the success of the Soviet Union’s 1980’s hockey team as an example and sheds light on what made them so uniquely successful. It was not the individuals that defined the success of the team, it was the collective team as a whole. Their team wasn’t about having a guy that could score a lot of points. Each player was dedicated to doing whatever they needed to do to get the hockey puck in the goal.

That 1980’s Soviet hockey team also fostered a diverse set of minds. Historically we reduce classifications to what we can see. Having a diverse team doesn’t just mean having people of a different race, gender, sexual orientation, etc. If you want a group to be smarter than its smartest member, you need a team of people who all think differently. This is where cognitive diversity is important – the best ideas often come from a round-table of minds debating. However, it can be easy to go too far when building a diverse team and end up with a group of people trying to destroy each other rather than cultivating innovative ideas.

What is the leading cause of failure in business and relationships? Communication. Combining various perspectives from people are what often adds up to one great new innovation. Looking at new angles is the only way to break new ground. Unfortunately, a lot of what we think is crazy gets shut out. Those crazy ideas are what need to be heard the most.

Direct download: 659.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Matthew Walker is Professor of Neuroscience and Psychology at the University of California, Berkeley, and Founder and Director of the Center for Human Sleep Science. His new book is “Why We Sleep.” Matthew’s mission is to reunite humanity with sleep.

How did Matthew begin studying sleep? He learned insufficient sleep is linked to ALL of the top killers in civilized countries. The average adult only sleeps 6 hours and 31 minutes. The disease and suffering that is present because of lack of sleep has become his motivator to instill change. So how much sleep do we need? If you are not getting at least 7-9 hours of sleep a day, you are not acting at optimal performance. Most who think they can operate at full capacity with 6 hours of sleep have become numb to the state they live in. They have forgotten, or perhaps have never known, what their optimal performance looks and feels like.

Insufficient sleep is shown to lead to disease, cancer, mutating your DNA, and Alzheimer’s. Not only does lack of sleep hurt you in the long-term, it also has many short-term effects as well. When you are sleep deprived your brain is 40% less able to retain information. Some have legitimate sleep disorders, however 90-95% of people can change their sleep habits.

How can we help change our quality of sleep? Turn off the technology at night. Lights from the T.V., iPad, phone, etc. sends all the wrong signals to your brain. Melatonin does not get released at the time it should get released. Any kind of light is problematic within the last hour or so of when you should be getting ready for bed. Light, sleep procrastination and anticipatory anxiety are the three biggest problems related to too much technology before bed.

Aiding sleep with drugs or alcohol is a common misnomer. When you sleep with the aid of alcohol or sleeping pills they inhibit your ability to hit your REM cycle. The same is true for marijuana. These are methods of sedation, not actual sleep. Studies show that sleeping pills are associated with death and cancer. More specifically, you are 3-4 times more likely to die across a 2 ½ year period when taking sleeping pills, than those who do not taking sleeping pills. Michael and Matthew end the conversation breaking apart start times of schools and how crucial starting an hour or two later is to a student and their quality of learning.

Direct download: 658.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Philip Maymin is an Associate Professor of Analytics and Finance at the University of Bridgeport Trefz School of Business. He is the managing editor of Algorithmic Finance and the co-editor-in-chief of the Journal of Sports Analytics. He has been an analytics consultant with several NBA teams and is the Chief Analytics Officer for Vantage Sports.

Philip brings the perspective of “Moneyball” to basketball. The Celtics, for example, have done a great job of putting players in positions that play to their strengths. They do this by analyzing the data of their players better than most other teams. High frequency data is in sports now, not just in trading. There are cameras in every professional basketball arena that produce play by play data showing summary statistics that coaching staff and in some instances, the public, can see.

Teams are producing models for how each player moves in combination with the other players on the court. The two most basic questions you ask of a player is “What does he do really well?” And “What does he do often?” Sometimes what players do often, doesn’t correlate to what they do well. Philip also discusses outlier players like Marcus Smart. He doesn’t have amazing scoring stats, blocking stats or anything else particularly extraordinary, yet when he is on the court, his team has a dramatically higher chance of winning.

How could we start going down the path of using data to create and put a team together? The myth is that GM’s are brilliant and have foresight on who to draft. If that were the case wouldn’t they be making dramatically more money? Also, how are they making decisions? GM’s mostly rely on their gut. Philip believes that EVERYTHING should be put in a system. If you take scouts opinions, analytics, GM’s opinions, etc. and put it all in a soup then you are just trading off your gut. You have essentially de-systematized the system.

Direct download: 657.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Trend following has more in common with Jeff Bezos, blackjack or horseracing than Elliot Wave or Gann. Michael uses a dating example to show the edge gained in dating when approaching total strangers and the correlation to trading random markets. If you play the system right and stick with it, odds are, you will come out on top. Is this the way to play the game? It doesn’t sound romantic, but the playing field is messy whether it be in seduction, black jack or venture capital – you have to play it different.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Asymmetric distribution
  • How to play the dating game
  • Race track betting
  • Blackjack
  • Outside the box trading
Direct download: 656.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Roy Baumeister is a social psychologist known for his work on the self, social rejection, belongingness, sexuality, sex differences, self-control, self-esteem, self-defeating behaviors, motivation, aggression, consciousness, and free will. Roy has also authored over 20 books throughout his career. He likes to start his research with the premise that he doesn’t know the right answer–trying to have an open mind and clean slate.

Roy started his career studying the idea of self-control. He looked at some of the major crutches people deal with–dieting, quitting smoking, controlling emotions. Roy found that everyone has a limited amount of energy and using that energy toward will power had a limited source of regulation. When people used their energy toward gaining self control in one area, they lost it in another. One way Roy found to boost energy and restore self control in patients was to give a patient glucose. It seemed to restore self-control in the patient, giving them a boost of energy.

Roy also has studied differences in people with high self-esteem as opposed to those with lower self-esteem. Improving self esteem didn’t seem to help make life better or lead to later success but improving self control did. Working on self control was shown to be more important for success than IQ or self esteem. Asian countries, for example, have much more discipline built into their culture than American culture. Roy’s studies have shown that Asians therefore require a lower IQ to be successful because their self control overpowers other inhibitors.

Michael and Roy finish their conversation talking sex. Is it more nature or nurture? Roy has found that female sexuality is more cultural and male sexuality is more nature. Do sex norms change based on female to male ratios? Yes. When you look at populations where there is an un-equal amount of men to women and visa versa the desire for one sex to acquire the attention of the other sex is shifted. Standards are lowered/heightened. Michael includes a 30 minute bonus presentation from Roy expanding on the topics discussed on today’s podcast.

Direct download: 655.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today’s podcast features chapters 3, 10 and the Epilogue from Michael’s newest edition of Trend Following taken from his audio book.

Principles and lessons woven throughout Trend Following are timeless and endure through whatever current event may be rolling through the news.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Absolute Returns

Volatility versus Risk

Drawdowns

Correlation

Zero Sum

George Soros

Berkshire Hathaway

Risk, Reward, and Uncertainty

Five Questions

Your Trading System

Frequently Asked Questions

Direct download: 654.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Alexander Elder has written some of the most popular trading books of the last 30 years. He grew up in Estonia among a successful family of doctors. Alexander followed in his family’s footsteps, becoming a doctor and making his way on a cargo ship. He ran from his ship to a U.S. Embassy, escaping from his country. His decision to jump ship was literally the best decision of his life. He is author of Trading for a Living, considered a modern classic among traders, an international best-seller, translated into 16 languages, and recently newly revised and released under the title, The New Trading for a Living. This is his second appearance on the show.

How is Alexander’s trading different? Alexander is motivated by creating quality. He has a sense and intuition for it. Someone who is losing money looks at their situation “like a rabbit running from a snake.” Alexander thinks differently. He trades by way of systems. He has his orders set for the day, goes skiing, then comes back to the computer to watch the last hour of trading to see if he needs to make any adjustments. He learns from his mistakes and makes sure his systems are the highest quality they can be.

What was the pivotal moment that broke Alexander into the trading direction he is in? There was not one moment, but many losing ones. He hates to lose. He overcame his losing over time with persistence and stubbornness. He studied his systems and trades vigorously until he had a winning system.

Another motivation? Knowing that failure was not an option. Alexander grew up in a successful family with money – If he failed in his home country, he would have been taken care of. However, now that he was in the United States, he knew if he failed he would be on the street. There would be nobody to take care of him. Do you hit rock bottom and paddle up? Or do you stay there and become a bum? Alexander chose to paddle up.

Direct download: 653.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:16am EDT

Entrepreneurship is a niche group that makes up a small number of the population. Being an entrepreneur is something visceral that starts deep down in a person. Michael reads from three pieces, adding commentary throughout, to further drive his point: “The Top Five Reasons to be a Jack of All trades” by Tim Ferriss, “Why Entrepreneur’s Start Companies Rather Than Join Them” by Steve Blank, and “Asymmetric Information in Entrepreneurship” by Deepak Hegde.

Entrepreneurs

Start up companies

Trading as an entrepreneur

Direct download: 652.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

David Burkus is author of “Friend of a Friend: Understanding the Hidden Networks That Can Transform Your Life and Your Career.” David has delivered keynotes to leaders of Fortune 500 companies and future leaders of the United States Naval Academy. His TED talk has been viewed almost 2 million times and he is a regular contributor to Harvard Business Review. What if the advice we have all heard about networking is wrong? David outlines the right way to network in the modern age.

How do you meet people? How do you meet the right people? Once you meet those people, what do you do with the relationship? Maybe you haven’t talked to someone for a few years but you could still call him or her up and have a personal talk with them. This is an example of one of the most useful networking ties, known as a “dormant tie.” David uses UFC founders, Dana White and Lorenzo Lamas, as an example. They went to high school together, hadn’t talked for years, both had a passion for fighting, but lived in different spheres of the fighting community. After reconnecting at a high school get together they realized they had some aligning career aspirations. They ended up buying the UFC and made it the fastest growing sport in history.

When you start taking chances on meeting people and putting yourself out there, that is when your network really expands. David shares another example of a movie producer who got his foot in the door by getting creative, taking some risks, and reaching out to the right people for conversations. Who do you know? Who do your friends know? Where do you know them from? These are basic questions that can get the ball rolling when trying to expand your network.

Knowing a ton of people is not necessary to be successful, you just need to know the right people to give yourself credibility. Shared activities and hobbies are ways to draw in a set of diverse people to build deep relationships. Networking events have become a thing of the past (thank goodness).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Curiosity conversations
  • LinkedIn
  • Network science
  • Self observation
  • Dormant ties
  • Robust networks
  • Network science
  • The majority illusion
  • The spread of Facebook
Direct download: 651.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Inspired by this post from Seth Godin… Michael expands it out on today’s podcast: “What is and what might be: They have much less in common than you might expect. The key step in creating a better future is insisting that it not be based on the assumptions, grievances and dead ends of the past. The future won’t be perfect. We won’t be perfect. But we can be kind. We can listen. We can give opportunity the benefit of the doubt. The future won’t always work. We won’t always succeed. But we can be alert and seek out the possible instead of the predicted. The future won’t always be fair. But we can try. We can care. We can choose to connect. It can be better if we let it.”

Seth Godin’s work centers around business, self help, and thinking clearer. Michael expands on Seth’s blog post by sharing an email he recently received from a disgruntled man who does not appreciate where Michael now lives – Vietnam. Michael’s main point? Assumptions, grievances and dead ends of the past should not be pushed on other people. You have a choice: Use past and present experiences to make yourself better and make your life better? Or let those experiences cripple you?

Embracing the moment of now is where the mind wants to be. Worrying about the past or future brings the mind down. Michael ends with another blog post from Seth Godin and an example of a client who is frustrated with his two months of trend following trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Travel

Experiencing life outside the U.S.

Embracing opportunity

Mindfulness

Direct download: 650.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

From IMDB: “An unsettling and eye-opening Wall Street horror story about Chinese companies, the American stock market, and the opportunistic greed behind the biggest heist you’ve never heard of.” That’s the opening description for a new documentary titled “The China Hustle” (2017).

Today, Michael talks with Director Jed Rothstein about the backstory for his film and the complexity of fairly describing a modern China. Whether you know something about China or not–this conversation will stimulate your China understanding.

Academy Award-nominated and Emmy-winning filmmaker Jed Rothstein specializes in hard-to-get stories from around the world that help people understand one another better. Whether seeking out heavy metal musicians who become Arab-Spring revolutionaries (PBS’s Before the Spring After the Fall); pioneering doctors (HBO’s Coma and Pandemic); Al Qaeda terrorists (The Oscar-nominated HBO documentary Killing in the Name); defenders of free speech (The 2009 Sundance film Shouting Fire); journalists on the front lines (Independent Lens’ Democracy on Deadline)–Rothstein works with people to help them tell their own stories in their own words. His films and television programs have played in festivals around the world, enjoyed special screenings at the United Nations, and been broadcast on HBO, PBS, National Geographic, Amazon Prime, The Discovery Channel, IFC, Channel 4, the BBC, CNN and elsewhere.

Direct download: 649.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael reaches back in time to explore a mega episode with three of his favorite guests: Salem Abraham, Walter Williams and Emanuel Derman.

Salem Andrew Abraham (born 1966) is an American investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. He is the president and founder of Abraham Trading Company, a futures investment firm based in Canadian, Texas.

Walter Edward Williams (born March 31, 1936) is an American economist, commentator, and academic. He is the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University, as well as a syndicated columnist and author known for his classical liberal and libertarian conservative views.

Emanuel Derman (born 1945) is a South African-born academic, businessman and writer. He is best known as a quantitative analyst, and author of the book My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance.

Staying within the title of this episode: three clear thinkers.

Direct download: 648.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Brennan Dunn is an expert on optimizing websites, improving user experience and scaling up sales through automation. He knows how to persuade funnel customers to create a peak-buying strategy.

Reading dialogue from Plato has been a big influence on Brennan and his career. Plato had a way of talking to people on an individual basis. Brennan took the observation and has built his business model around just that – personalization. He figures out what level of awareness a customer may have on the subject he is selling and curates a selling strategy off that knowledge. Brennan calls this life cycle marketing. He segregates emails based on how long people have been on his email list, what your interests are, and different skill levels. People buy more often when they feel an offer has been completely catered to them.

How does Brennan write such effective copy? He starts with someone’s pain and shows them he knows where they are in life, where they want to be, and what their dreams are. Nobody cares much about what the product is, they care about how it will help them get to their dream. Copywriting is more about curating that creating.

What is the best way to get your message or product out to people? What is the most effective platform of communication today? Email. Brennan has launched products through Twitter as opposed to email and the results are nowhere near the same. Email reaches a greater number of people and is not owned by one company – it is a decentralized platform. Michael and Brennan end the conversation talking website development and the importance of usability and simplicity in a website.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Life cycle marketing
Persuasion
Copywriting
Socrates
Niche marketing

Direct download: 647.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Predictive technical analysis is chart/pattern reading. Trend following, on the other hand, is reactive technical analysis – a diversified portfolio perspective of markets using momentum indicators. You never know what will happen in one market so you use diversification to hedge your bets. Predictive technical analysis has no evidence of success. Reactive technical analysis has decades of proof behind it. How do you find this proof? Seek out the track records of traders using trend following. You can see trend followers making and losing money over long periods of time.

Michael reads a review from a critic who is a fan of predictive technical analysis. Michael uses this review to further make his point – there is no chart that can be studied long enough that will tell you which way a market will move. Trading in this way is a recipe for failure. As Ed Seykota famously said, “Everyone gets what they want out of the markets.” When you trade as though you can predict the future, you will most certainly get what you want from the markets – failure.

Direct download: 646.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Tarra Mitchell’s new book is “The Yoga of Leadership: A Practical Guide to Health, Happiness, And Inspiring Total Team Engagement.” Her work digs deep into the psychological benefits of practicing yoga and the benefits it provides for overall life wellness.

Tarra made a pivot in her career after the 2008 financial crisis. She was working to raise money for a fund of funds and decided she wanted to set off on her own – become an entrepreneur. Her new business was set to get off the ground just as the 2008 crisis was unfolding – tanking her new business opportunity. Tarra then set off on different ventures, eventually leading her to yoga. Yoga quickly became a part of her weekly routine. She decided to go through yoga teacher training, not to become a teacher, but rather to learn more about the practice. Through that experience, she realized she wanted to give back to the world by bringing the benefits of yoga into the finance industry.

Stress, loneliness, happiness, depression – it’s all contagious. Tarra saw yoga as a great way to counter some of the negativity in everyday life. Breathing and moving on a yoga mat settles the nervous system and helps quiet the mind. Yoga also helps bring students to an ongoing place of greater consciousness. Waking up each morning and doing an assessment of what’s needed for the day helps give the mind balance and power over the senses. With Tarra’s previous ties to the finance world, she quickly saw how valuable it could be to the industry.

Tarra not only see’s yoga as a way to settle the mind, but also as a healing agent. Too often, people turn to drugs and alcohol as coping mechanisms. They turn to pills for anxiety, depression, or other ailments rather than trying to develop real skills to help. Tarra teaches her students how to strengthen the mind through practice and gives students a sense of community.

Direct download: 645.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

When everything is going great in the market, that’s when it is time to make sure that you have a plan for when it all goes downhill. Michael reads a piece from Ben Hunt titled, “The Icarus Moment,” adding commentary throughout. Michael and Ben may have differing views on trading styles, but philosophically they are aligned.

Everyone, on some level, is stuck on a wheel. People are literally baring their souls on a daily basis. Do you want to hear everyone’s daily fears? Their daily drama? Who we are and what we do has become completely separated. What can we do about all this? Start asking the “why.” Trust your biases. Wisdom comes from the ability to think critically. Think of the why, and not just the what.

Michael ends the podcast with a bonus interview with Anders Ericsson author of “Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise.” Ericsson is a psychologist and Conradi Eminent Scholar and Professor of Psychology at Florida State University. He is an internationally recognized researcher in the psychological nature of expertise and human performance. He studies cognitive ability, personality, interests, and other factors that help researchers understand and predict deliberate practice and expert performance.

Direct download: 644.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Robert Kurson is the author of “Rocket Men: The Daring Odyssey of Apollo 8 and the Astronauts Who Made Man’s First Journey to the Moon.”

How did Robert get hooked on space exploration? He was born in 1963, just five years before the Apollo 8 mission. Some of his first memories were watching rockets take off. He realized he knew a lot of Apollo 11 and 13 but not much about Apollo 8. As he researched the mission he quickly learned that NASA, astronauts, and experts in the field had all talked about this mission being the most astonishing and important of all Apollo missions. Why? Apollo 8 became the first manned spacecraft to leave Earth’s orbit, reach the Earth’s Moon, orbit it and return safely to Earth. The three astronaut crew consisted of Commander Frank Borman, Command Module Pilot James Lovell, and Lunar Module Pilot William Anders.

The U.S. had historically always been behind in the race to space. With Russia continuously one step ahead, Apollo 8 gave us the advantage of having the first crew to reach the moon and paved the way for Apollo 11 to successfully put the first man on the moon.

Direct download: 643.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Where do you pull your inspiration from? Michael opens the podcast quoting Nassim Taleb addressing bullies: Do you throw punches for the sake of throwing punches? No, you throw punches when it will set a standard for others not to mess with you. Michael also pulls inspiration from the 1980’s Dunbar High School basketball team. The 1981–1982 team finished its season undefeated and the 1982–1983 team continued the tradition with a 31–0 record and a #1 national ranking. They produced three first round NBA basketball draft picks. That team has become legendary.

Inspiration can be pulled from extraordinary athletes, writers, singers, and even architecture. Michael recently visited Singapore for a presentation. He has been there many times and describes it as “San Diego on steroids.” He describes the architecture and beauty of the city as awe-inspiring.

Michael ties the podcast together talking trend following and what inspires him about this style of trading compared to fundamental trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bullies
  • Overcoming obstacles
  • Desert island trading
  • Value investing
  • Toxic masculinity
  • Noise elimination
  • EMT
Direct download: 642.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Josef Marc is an author, entrepreneur, and CEO of Publica developing in the publishing world via blockchain. Publishing companies are some of the most inefficient businesses around today. Josef not only has cultivated a strategy to work around many of the hang-ups created by working with publishers, but has re-imagined the process altogether.

We have reached an era where people no longer care who the publisher is. Buyers can do their own research, read reviews and decide if they want to buy. How does blockchain technology help with this process? During an author’s campaign period, excitement can be generated through blockchain. Searching the content of books is easier through blockchain and there is a deeper sense of engagement throughout the community. Blockchain developments not only supply a platform for an author to get their name out, but it also creates a unique vehicle for payment. Josef also explains how blockchain can help with the re-sale of books and track when, what and who is buying a book or product.

For years Amazon has had a monopoly on book sales. Amazon relies on customer reviews to promote books and get others to buy. There is one small problem with this process – it is almost impossible to track the legitimacy of these customer reviews. How are reviews more accountable through blockchain? Everything is tracked and users have “tokenized” accountability.

Direct download: 641.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Alison Gopnik is an American professor of psychology and affiliate professor of philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley. She is known for her work in the areas of cognitive and language development, specializing in the effect of language on thought, the development of a theory of mind, and causal learning. Her primary study is looking at how we learn and grow from the earliest years of our lives.

How did Alison get started down this path? She is the eldest of 6 children brought up in a bohemian style family. Being the oldest of 6 she had a deep understanding of children at a young age. She saw relationships between play and learning in babies first hand and was intrigued early on.

Alison also looks at the relationship between how long a baby is a baby before adulthood and how that relates to the rest of their life that follows. Humans generally have twice the amount of childhood than any of our animal relatives. If we have these extended periods of learning, compared to other mammals, what are human babies doing in that time? What are the other animal babies doing in that time? How does this time shape the rest of our lives in comparison?

Why is Alison so passionate about her work? She works with children everyday. She observes, plays and sees first hand how important they are. Other fields of science, particularly the artificial intelligence community, is beginning to take notice of her work. They are starting to look at children and cognitive development to help advance their programming. Introducing play and adaptation to their systems is one thing scientists have taken away from observing children. The more you play around and experiment in your childhood, the more you are able to adapt and adjust to the unknown environments. How do you go about taking on new challenges? Exploring and having fun with things often helps to solve problems quicker.

What are some lessons we are learning about kids and technology? Will this generation’s technology ruin the world? Michael and Alison end the podcast discussing the ever changing technological advances and what impacts it may or may not have on the world and the children living on it.

Direct download: 640.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Martin “Marty” Bergin and James Dailey are on the podcast today. Bergin is the President and owner of DUNN Capital Management. He began working with DUNN in 1997 and took over the day-to-day operations of the firm in 2007. He became owner in 2015 (Bill Dunn remains Chairman). James Dailey became CEO of Dunn Capital in March 2016. DUNN has a track record that spans over 40 years.

Today’s podcast was recorded the week after the February 2018 volatility. Inevitably, when there is volatility in markets, machines are blamed. DUNN Capital is a trend following trading firm who uses computers for everything they do. They know fintech well. That said, there is a difference between DUNN Capital and “the machine” traders.

DUNN Capital trades from a higher volatility perspective and it has worked out well for them. They don’t charge management fees, but rather are completely incentive fee based. Further, at DUNN Capital they don’t reduce volatility for the sake of possibly reducing bad events–they still want strong profits and that is the only way they make money. Unfortunately, investors always remember drawdowns and they do try to minimize those without compromising their core system.

Finally, and this a surprise for many, DUNN Capital’s office is quiet and not very exciting. Trend following after all is about discipline and blocking out all of the media noise and information. DUNN’s investors get that. DUNN is managing money for the long term, not short term. Their trend following is geared toward data and everything in their research shows that long term trend following trading is their best opportunity.

Direct download: 639.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel walks the line on trend following.

Direct download: 638.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Oliver Hart is the 6th Nobel Prize winner to appear on Trend Following Radio. He is a British-born American economist, and currently the Andrew E. Furer Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2016 for his work on contract theory.

Oliver is an expert on contract theory, theory of the firm, corporate finance, law and economics. He studies how ownership roles, structure and contractual arrangements are used in the governance and boundaries of corporations. How did he get his start? After receiving his PhD from Princeton in 1974, he began studying general equilibrium under uncertainty – particularly the behavior of firms when under uncertainty. Summer of 1983 was when his career path shifted – specifically to contracts. He became less interested in what firms should do, and more interested in how firms align with what shareholders want them to do.

Following the 2008 financial crisis, Oliver believed it was dangerous to start intervening in such a fragile economy. Yes, it was an unprecedented crisis but, Oliver believes it was totally overblown. No physical or human assets were disappearing and we had mechanisms such as bankruptcy to fall back on. What was the reasoning behind some banks beings saved and others not? Wall Street was bailed out but mainstream was not? Oliver looked at the crisis as arbitrary and rigged. Michael and Oliver wrap the podcast up discussing the differences in block chain and bitcoin and end the podcast with a 6 minute bonus Q&A.

Direct download: 637.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

What drives, distracts or motivates you? There has never been more availability to information than today. It is being pumped out every second of everyday. Is it useful?

Michael pulls a few quotes from a Farnam Street blog post and Nassim Taleb who further his point; we are not free, we are all part of the matrix, information is transforming us from nice people to neurotic people, and data that is not well discussed is toxic. Twitter, Facebook, CNBC, Bloomberg, and Yahoo Finance (among many others) are brainwashing the public. Shane Parish (from Farnam Street) also encourages people to think about what the information they are consuming means to them. Will it be relevant to them in a week, month, or year? He breaks the value of information down into two parts: Will the information stand the test of time? Does the information have detail?

The highest achievers have figured out how to sort through the chaos. They choose not to participate in the noise and tune everything out that is not essential. They are busy getting things done, rather than watching what everyone else is doing.

 

Direct download: 636.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Martin Ford is a futurist and author focused on the impact artificial intelligence is having on society and the economy. He is also the founder of a Silicon Valley based software development company and recently started Genesis Systems, focused on creating sustainable water by way of atmospheric water retention systems. He has over 25 years of experience in software development and systems. His newest book is “Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future.”

What was the trigger that caused Martin to go down the path of studying artificial intelligence? He was running a small software company from the mid 90’s to the 2000’s. He saw first hand in that short span of time how rapid technology was shifting jobs. Once his interest was sparked, he quickly began looking beyond just the loss of jobs and thinking of the economical ripple effect of jobs disappearing.

How do we disrupt the economical and social impact of severe unemployment? Martin proposes a “basic income”. Basic income would be enough money for the typical individual to get by on and survive, but not thrive. Controversial? Yes. Michael and Martin end the podcast discussing the ever looming threat of sustainable water and Martin’s newest venture, Genesis Systems.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Loss of jobs to robots
  • Basic income
  • Rapid advancements in technology
  • Poverty traps
  • Dignity and work
  • Technology in medicine
  • Population and pollution
  • Sustainable water
Direct download: 635.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Cognitive dissonance, especially in politics, is running rampant. People regularly contradict themselves just to be right. Jordan Peterson is a psychology professor in Canada who has become popular due to his opposing views and his views on political correctness. Michael walks through an interview with Peterson and a sister article breaking apart that same interview and points out the key issues.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Ad hominem
  • Political correctness
  • Politics
  • Gender equality
  • Gender pronouns
  • The lessons for life from this are profound
Direct download: 634.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

William Damon is a Professor of Education at the Stanford Graduate School of Education, Director of the Stanford Center on Adolescence, and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He is one of the world’s top researchers on development of purpose in life and author of the widely influential book “The Path to Purpose.” In January 2018 he was named one of the 50 most influential psychologists. This conversation lets listeners to rethink their purpose and take inventory on their day to day life.

How does one get closer to happiness? Purpose is what drives individuals through life. It creates positive aspirations. People who think beyond the day to day and move toward goals tend to have a more fulfilled, happier life. Bill’s work help’s youth find that purpose as well as help elderly keep theirs. He has seen first hand how purpose motivates and makes people obsessed with life.

What is the typical trigger for someone to start searching for their purpose? Is there always a particular starting point? Everyone has their own journey, however there are usually patterns young people follow while finding their purpose. Often they have observed a person that has had influence, and they want to emulate them–whether that be a parent, teacher, boss, coach, etc. However, these influences can also help to cause doubts–which may not be a bad thing. It’s a natural human tendency to get charged up and pursue dreams with more zest when others say it is impossible. It took about four years for Bill to get recognition he was going down the career right path. Success is not overnight.

Prospective thinking is the new “a-ha” revelation that is coming out in developmental psychology. It’s based on being able to shape your own future regardless of your past. Michael and Bill end the conversation talking common decency, universal morals and values.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Purpose
  • Prestige of colleges
  • Celebrity status misconceptions
  • Developmental psychology
  • Influences of childhood
  • Prospective thinking
  • Basic morals and values
  • Public schools and curriculum being used
Direct download: 633.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

February 2018 has marked the return of volatility in the stock market. With that volatility comes a slew of news propaganda – listening to CNBC and Bloomberg you would think the world is ending. Every news outlet has their own story on why markets are spinning. Think through what is going on. Go back and look at other volatile times. What’s the truth? Markets are just acting how they are going to act. Volatility is normal. It is to be expected.

Adding to Michael’s perspective, he reads a blog post by Cliff Asness of AQR Capital. Cliff further elaborates on “machine haters” and news spinning during volatile times. Michael ends reading feedback from a listener on political correctness and keeping his message true and straight forward.

Direct download: 632.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Chris Ducker is a British businessman, the founder and CEO of Virtual Staff Finder and the Live2Sell Group of Companies. Chris’s new book is, “Rise of the Youpreneur: The Definitive Guide to Becoming the Go-To Leader in Your Industry and Building a Future-Proof Business.” His book branches out to all audiences – regardless of where someone might be in their journey of building a company or brand.

What is a youpreneur? Chris realized about five years ago that people were personally signing up to do business with him. Not the brand name or the staff he employs, but him. A youpreneur builds a business based around them, the individual, but not reliant on them. Chris has created a movement centered on this philosophy. As you build a business around “you” all sorts of other opportunities start to present themselves. He encourages listeners to think about, “What sets YOU apart?” From there you can cultivate a business specific to you.

Centering a business around your reputation puts you in top control of a company or product you built. Why waste all that work by building your company on rented land. Chris stresses the need to grow your platform on your own domain. Don’t rely on Facebook or Instagram to look out for your best interests. Once you have your domain, what is the best way to reach your audience? By the year 2020, according to Google, 90% of content consumed by users will be by video or audio. Michael and Chris end on tips and tricks on creating a successful podcast, or going on a podcast as a guest.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Building your business on your own domain
  • The ripple effect
  • Email campaigns
  • Starting a podcast
Direct download: 631.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

David Ricardo would be just as successful today trading as he was trading 100’s of years ago. He understood, from a trend following perspective, that there is no value in prediction. When trading, you take an entry signal, get into the market, and ride the trend. It is impossible to know with certainty where the market will go, so you trade with the market rather than against it. Some think they have a grasp on bitcoin, but there is no way to understand the “why” behind it or any other market.

You don’t have to be an expert to trade bitcoin, gold, coffee, or cocoa – just have rules in place and start trading. Small losses will happen but they are balanced: home runs – small losses = extreme gains. Do the homework, put rules together and go.

Still uneasy about diving into trend following? Check out performance from trend following traders such as Dunn Capital and Winton Capital. Much can be learned from information in public trend following track records.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Time series momentum
  • Cross sectional momentum
  • Definition of managed futures
  • Diversification
  • Trend following diversification
  • Drawdowns
Direct download: 630.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Annie Duke’s new book is, “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts.” She has taken her poker expertise and graduate level degree of psychology and digested it into a book we all can relate to our lives. She is a poker player, author, decision making expert, and cognitive scientist. Her understanding of how luck, skill and uncertainty all play a role in life is fascinating.

The foundation of decision making crosses over to all genres. She touches on football play calling, crypto currency, and everything in between. In Annie’s book she breaks down “the worst football play in Super Bowl history”, relating to Pete Carol. She proves that it was actually the right call in terms of probabilities and mathematics, Carroll was just unlucky. Carroll is on record admitting that it was the worst result of a call in Super Bowl history, but not the worst call.

Under a stressful situation, like the Super Bowl, would you be able to make the right call? How good are you about checking your beliefs and keeping your bets in line? Are your decisions and outcomes lucky? Smart? Skilled? Very few outcomes are solely skill or solely luck. Phil Ivey, arguably the best poker player in the world, sorts out what was luck and what was skill after every win or loss he may have in a poker tournament.

Learning occurs best when there are lots of decisions to be made in a compressed amount of time paired with lots of feedback to those decisions. Annie first studied this in young children learning to listen, speak, and digest words and quickly saw this study directly relate to the poker table. How do you learn when there is a lot of noisy feedback? Having limited resources, how do you use those resources to make educated bets?

Life is a series of bets that compound on themselves. Annie makes the point that, “I’m not sure” is the best answer in many situations – and there is nothing wrong with that. Coming from a place of uncertainty helps to make more rational decisions. When that decision doesn’t turn out well, you can then analyze how you can improve that action going forward.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Crypto currency bubble
  • Decision making
  • Game theory
  • Decision making groups
  • Noisy feedback
  • Decisions in uncertainty
Direct download: 629.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Do you buy and hold Bitcoin? For those who have held on through the turbulence it has turned out well–so far. Michael reads a lively blog post from a few years back regarding the right way to trade, the wrong way to trade and all the emotions people feel in-between. Michael breaks the post apart with commentary.

Direct download: 628.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Charles Faulkner is back on the podcast today. Faulkner is an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in “The New Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager. Faulkner has had one of the most popular podcasts on Trend Following Radio. His new work is centered on deciphering the complicated from the complex.

Warren Buffett recently said, “In terms of crypto currencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending. When it happens or how or anything else, I don’t know.” What does Faulkner make of Buffett’s prediction?

With all this new technology and language most will turn to others for advice. Unfortunately, there are a lot of fortune tellers pushing agendas. The idea of forecasting is to make people move. It is a way of getting people into action and doing things they would never do if they knew the truth. “Why can’t the magical thinkers be accurate?” Charles points out that unfortunately fortune tellers will be right some of the time and “reasoning by resemblance” is a common fallback trap for people.

How should you go about navigating this complexity? Complex and complicated are two very different things and the ability to identify what situation you are in requires a high level of thinking. Complicated situations or problems can be solved by asking a knowledgeable person for advice, reading a book, watching a YouTube video, etc. Complex scenarios take trial and error.

Still not sure if something is complicated or complex? Uncertainty is one quality of complex systems. It has non-linear causes and effects. Some little action can have huge ramifications. In the same way, it takes huge amounts of effort and money to change complex situations, for example: healthcare, opioids epidemic, etc. People frequently think that if they just have more information, different information or a smarter “guy” that they would be better off. Unfortunately, when you are in a complex situation, standard rules don’t apply.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Forecasting
  • The rise of magical thinking
  • Reasoning by resemblance
  • Network theory
  • Power laws
  • Crypto currency
  • Complicated vs. Complex vs. Chaos
Direct download: 627.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael reaches back and brings on three authors from the archives with three great books: Fascinate, Simple Rules and Visual Intelligence.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Sally Hogshead on Fascination
  • Kathleen Eisenhardt on Simple Rules
  • Amy Herman on Visual Intelligence
Direct download: 626.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Cognitive dissonance is everywhere. Michael quotes from an article by Alwyn Lau titled “Quick to Attack and Condemn: Why We do It.” Trumps presidency has produced arguably the greatest case of cognitive dissonance in history.

Many cognitive dissonance with the markets. What is the best way to counter cognitive dissonance? Take a minute, stop, and look for an alternative explanation. Stop hallucinating and start studying. Read perspectives from both sides and educate yourself.

Staying attached to news and breaking headlines only feeds the problem. Are you in cognitive dissonance about markets? Politics? Have you given yourself a back test?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Donald Trump
  • Fact checking
  • Bitcoin
  • Breaking news
Direct download: 625.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

“The Edge… there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.” –Hunter S. Thompson

Taking the lead from Thompson...Michael goes in search of the edge.

Direct download: 624.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ben Hardy started blogging in May of 2015 and in just under three years has gained over 300,000 email subscribers and become the most followed writer on Medium.com. Ben is also just a few months away from his PHD in organizational psychology at age 29. His three foster children, as well as personal experiences, inspired his new book, “Willpower Doesn’t Work: Discover the Hidden Keys to Success.”

Ben sees willpower as a fight against the natural environment and consequentially, a losing battle. Getting out of typical environments helps to see things from the outside and remove yourself from the echo chamber of mass society. Experiencing emotion, both good and bad, is also important. Finding a sacred space that triggers good emotions is important to mix into daily routine – a place to go everyday that re-centers you, and you look forward to going.

How does Ben have time to write new articles, with great content, and continue growing his following? We live in an information world and having the right writing skills can help grow a business immensely. He is a big proponent of re-purposing evergreen material. Also, learning how to structure content and write headlines are some of the quickest ways to see boosts in traffic. Lastly, publishing your content on the right platforms is key. The three websites Ben believes provide the best opportunity for you to see massive growth are all covered in this great conversation.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Western and eastern philosophy
  • Getting out of your environment
  • Sacred space
  • Morning routines
  • Squeeze page
Direct download: 623.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

The kick in the ass motivational screed for 2018. Enjoy!

Direct download: 622.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:23am EDT

George Anders is a New York Times best selling author and journalist who has written for national publications spanning over 30 years. He shared a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting in 1997, while at The Wall Street Journal. Michael is a huge fan of George’s classic, “Merchants of Debt” published in 1992. His most recent work is “You Can Do Anything: The Surprising Power of ‘Useless’ Liberal Arts Education.”

“You Can Do Anything” shows how humanizing technology has become one of the fastest growing jobs. 6% of technology jobs are programmer based with the other 94% being human relations based. Social media, branding, psychology, etc.–they have nothing to do with coding but are just as essential to running a successful technology based company. George gives one example of an exceptional sales person he met who happened to be an English major. He sat beside her and witnessed first hand why she was so exceptional at selling – it was how she talked to people and fostered relationships with customers over the phone. You don’t need a business degree to sell. You just need an intuitive social way of talking with people and making your customer feel comfortable. Building a successful company takes a combination of tech savvy and psychology.

Having the confidence and audacity to take a risk and reach out to some of the highest achievers in a field of your interest could be your greatest chance at a dream job. To be the best you learn from the best and you won’t get very far if you are shy about it. George also stresses that no matter what your major was in college (or if you even went to college), it is important to know that you can go in any direction with a career path. Michael and George end the podcast talking about climbing Mt. Fuji. George describes the gorgeous landscape, scenery, and a mistake he made that anyone following in his footsteps should avoid.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Confidence in business
  • Journalism
  • Targeted marketing
  • Mark Zuckerberg
  • Alumni connections
  • Audacity
  • Persuasion
  • E-books
  • The explorers spirit
Direct download: 621.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Happy new year and please enjoy my all day 11-hour compilation covering 3 of my favorite guests. A timeless reminder to start 2018 the right way! And if you don't want to listen all the way through then enjoy my opening intro rant!

Direct download: 620.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00am EDT

Ozan Varol is a rocket scientist, author and award-winning law professor. His contrarian view show throughout his writings and interviews. He focuses primarily on showing how extraordinary thinking produces extraordinary results. Ozan’s newest books are The Democratic Coup d’État and Comparative Constitutional Law: A Global and Interdisciplinary Approach.

Michael and Ozan Varol take a winding path through modern life across politics, geography and the proper way to argue.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Extraordinary thinking
  • The Democratic Coup d’État
  • Contrary thinking
Direct download: 619.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:30pm EDT

A Merry Christmas podcast designed to challenge traditional thinking. Hint: Watch out for the biases and do the work.

Direct download: 618.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ken Blanchard is an author and management expert. His writing career spans over 60 books with his most successful being “The One Minute Manager” selling over 13 million copies. “The One Minute Manager” was first self published by Ken and his co-author and released in 1982. It quickly sold over 20,000 copies with no publicity, giving them a leg up when they were ready to negotiate publishing deals. Ken’s students span all backgrounds from large companies to entrepreneurs. His books have been translated into 40+ languages and the lessons and training he provides translates to all ages in all countries.

Where did it all start for Ken? Ken’s dad was an admiral in the Navy. He gave up a career on Wall Street to join the Navy and fight on the front lines of WWII. He taught Ken invaluable leadership qualities that he passes on throughout his books and in his training. What was one of his biggest lessons? You are only as good as the men around you.

Ken teaches three key lessons in one minute managing: one minute goal setting, one minute praising, and one minute reprimand. He believes good leaders are a combination of nature and nurture and proper training can go a long way in building successful relationships–which build successful companies. What are you doing to grow intellectually, physically, spiritually, and in your relationships? Competing with the best requires constant learning.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Seagull managing
  • Assumed constraint
  • Self leadership
  • Power of constant learning
  • Vulnerability in leadership
Direct download: 617.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Cryptocurrency is sweeping the world. From taxi drivers to Instagram bikini models – everyone is talking about getting rich off it. Millions of people are willing to jump on board immediately–whether it’s a good or bad idea.

Building off that thought… Michael recently posted this question to listeners: “You have a trading strategy that you have tested over and over but you lose 5% the first year using it, what conclusions do you draw from that?” He reads feedback from listeners who are willing to throw their strategy away after having one down period. Warren Buffett, however, has famously said that if you cannot afford to lose 50% of your portfolio then you shouldn’t be trading – what do you think he would say about a mere 5%?

Michael finishes the podcast reaching back into his archives and pulling some trading rules from past trading legends. He calls this list his “43 Kickass Trading Rules for Bitcoin and Crypto Trading.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bitcoin
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Volatility
Direct download: 616.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is an expert on idea futures and markets, was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute’s Foresight Exchange, and DARPA’s Future MAP project. He is co-author of “The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life.” And today Robin and Michael dive right into the heart of our hidden motives.

“The Elephant in the Brain” helps confront hidden motives embedded in the brain–things people don’t like to talk about, also known as, elephants in the room. Robin shows that once our brains are able to confront these blind spots, we can better have a grasp on ourselves and the motivations behind how we think–which of course can then lead to possibly better policy.

Think about it: Why does one person find another attractive? Why do we laugh? Robin answers these questions and more throughout his work. He forces you to dig into the deeper, darker parts of your psyche and look in the mirror. And Michael takes great pleasure in letting Robin reveal his awesome insights on today’s show.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Hidden motives
  • Humans as political animals
  • Deception vs. self deception
  • Selfishness
  • Understanding your motivations
Direct download: 615.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Very experienced guys make great interviews. They bring age, perspective and wisdom to the table. Tom DeMark and Perry Kaufman are two men that have previously been on the podcast that exemplify this statement. Michael went back into the archives to bring these men and their interviews on the podcast today.

Perry Kaufman is an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs. He currently is president of Kaufman Analytics.

Tom DeMark is founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics and the creator of the DeMark Indicators. Tom considers himself a market timer and believes that fundamentals are critical; however, he and Michael still have a lot in common. His work is price and technically driven.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price movement
  • Fundamentals
  • Technical analysis behind the scenes
  • Elliott wave
  • The Fibonacci sequence
  • Forecasting
  • George Soros
  • Michael Steinhardt
  • Paul Tudor Jones
  • Steve Cohen
  • Computerizing indicators
  • 100% algorithmic trading
  • Systematic vs. Automated
  • Optimization vs. Validation
  • Tail events
  • Discipline
Direct download: 614.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Matt Smith is CEO of Royalty Exchange, an online rights platform where users sell portions of their royalty income and investors bid on it. The primary goal of Royalty Exchange is to make royalty streams investable. They have held over 200 auctions in the last 18 months where artists and investors interact in the buying and selling of royalties. Recently Matt launched a sister company Royalty Flow–created to purchase larger royalty streams and get more investors involved.

What is the process of Royalty Flow? Investors can buy shares through a platform called Folio, those shares are then transferred to a major exchange like Nasdaq. Royalty Flow was created after being approached to buy Eminem’s royalties. Royalty Flow provides a way for a pool of investors to purchase. What are motivations for investors to buy royalties? Investors view this as a hedging strategy because it is uncorrelated to their other portfolios. In contrast, what are some motivations for selling off royalties?

There are hundreds of thousands of investors that contribute to artists getting their music out there – music producers, song writers, etc., not just performers. Those contributors have royalties. Artists and their contributors see the advantages to diversification and investors see a sense of security in having a steady flow of income outside of their Wall Street portfolios.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Streaming music
  • Music royalties
  • ICO’s
  • SEC regulations
  • Sesame Street royalties
  • Eminem royalties
Direct download: 613.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Larry Hite recently called Michael and left him a voicemail regarding podcast episode #606. Larry has seen his share of ups and downs and has had a great career so praise from Larry was a nice surprise. Michael follows Larry’s praise by sharing a recent Facebook conversation with a critic. The conversation ensued regarding a post quoting Sam Harris. The back and forth that began with this Facebook “friend” starts with her calling Michael dogmatic (among other things) and by the end of the banter she evolves to calling him a cult leader. What is the takeaway from this conversation? Develop a system for dealing with people and their opinions. What is a key thing to keep in mind while developing that system? Not everyone’s opinion matters.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trend Following 5th Edition
  • Dogmatic
  • Trend following performance
  • How to filter trolls
  • Sock puppets
  • Sorting the real from the fake
Direct download: 612.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Gervais is a high performance psychologist. He works with top performers to train and implement skills necessary to pursuing and revealing one’s maximum potential. His clients include world record holders, Olympians, internationally acclaimed artists and musicians, MVPs from every major sport and Fortune 100 CEOs. He is also co-founder of Compete to Create.

Part of Michael’s training is helping clients realize there are things we are in control of and things we are not in control of – therefore focus on what you can control. We can train our bodies, our craft and mind. Michael teaches clients through science based research that refining ALL three of these areas are essential to becoming successful.

So what does world class awareness look like and how do you achieve it? There are no words that can capture what awareness is, but when someone becomes fully aware, it is as if they are fully engrossed in the task at hand. They have an intimate understanding of how their thoughts, actions, and words are lining up with the environment. However, just being “aware” is not enough for mindfulness. Creating mindfulness could be as simple as focusing on one thing for a length of time. This might mean refocusing the mind thousands of times. As soon as you allow yourself to get into the moment, performance jumps astronomically. Athletes are a great way to judge this. They live in a world of compressed time. Most athletes only have a couple of years to compete at peak performance. Because of this, top athletes tend to understand being mindful and grasp the importance of being in the present moment faster than the average person.

Another aspect of Michael’s work is learning what motivates a client. There are two types of motivations: internal and external. Science has shown that people more aligned with internal motivations tend to outperform those motivated by external factors such as money, fame and power. However, regardless of your motivations or natural talents (or lack thereof), Michael stresses that greatness is accessible to everyone. Investing in mental skills that help deal with challenges that come your way is well worth the time to cultivate. Work on mastering the aspects of your life that you can control. Understanding how to do it is the easy part, implementing is the hard part.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Living in the present moment
  • Mindfulness
  • High performance training
  • Grit
Direct download: 611.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael explores two of his favorite monologues covering Roger Waters of Pink Floyd fame and trader Nicolas Darvas.

Direct download: 610.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Tim Larkin is one of America’s leading Pro-Victim Rights and Personal Safety Advocates. He has had a 25 year career training over 10,000 clients in 52 countries in how to deal with imminent violence. His books include How To Survive The Most Critical 5 Seconds Of Your Life and Survive The Unthinkable. His newest book is When Violence Is the Answer: Learning How to Do What It Takes When Your Life Is at Stake.

Tim’s father was an officer in the Navy. He knew at the age of 13 he was going to be a Navy Seal. His whole adolescence and early adulthood was dedicated to that goal. After college he started his Seal training. Toward the end, with just a couple weeks left of rigorous training, he went out on a routine training dive and a wave hit his ear. Tim burst his eardrum and his career was over. This was the first time, at age 21, his body had failed him. Sometimes the smallest things, like an eardrum bursting, can change your whole course of life. This lesson learned early on by Tim translates to everything he now teaches.

Tim has always stressed that the human mind is the only thing we do not have a weapon against. The human mind will always find a way if there is intention and Las Vegas is an example of that. Gun control is important however there is no amount of laws that will stop someone from inflicting pain, and this is where Tim’s work comes into play. He shows how a rational fear of violence is necessary in today’s world.

Knowing where threats lie, having an exit plan and being self-aware at all times might feel mundane, but it could save your life. Tim runs through real life scenarios: both men and women being targeted and attacked. What is the biggest takeaway? There is no benefit in focusing on the differences between you and a predator (ie. he is bigger, stronger, faster), but rather focus on the similarities and where the universal week spots are throughout the human body. We as humans are all hardwired to protect ourselves. Even though predators may be bigger, stronger, faster, if you understand basic human injury, you can exploit that and stop an attacker.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Las Vegas shooting
  • Simulated shootings
  • Asocial violence
  • Non-verbal cues
  • Disabling one of your sensory feelings
  • Navy Seals
  • Exploiting the human body
  • Knowing principles not techniques
  • Violence is a 50/50 endeavor
  • Killing with kindness first
Direct download: 609.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael explores meeting the achievers, great coaching and brings back two trend following legends from the archives–a must listen.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Meeting the achievers–how?
  • Coaching
  • Trend Following Legends Ed Seykota and Martin Bergin
Direct download: 608.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Robert Carver got his start in finance working at trend following firm AHL in 2001 during his final year of college. He was introduced to quantitative trading while at AHL and for the first time began thinking of finance in a systematic way. He later went back to AHL, working there from 2006-2013. His newest book is “Smart Portfolios: A Practical guide to building and maintaining intelligent investment portfolios.”

It took a lot of research and digging for Robert to decipher which financial tools available to traders were appropriate for him. He knew he was not the only trader with this problem so he decided to write a book laying out what he had found through his research. Robert gives actionable tips and guidelines for others who may need help finding what trading instruments are right for them. Robert also wanted “Smart Portfolios” to be a book for the average investor. He wrote it in a way that is not over complicated. Any trader, new or professional, can pick it up and find it useful.

Robert bases portfolio selection around three questions: 1. What should you invest in? 2. How much of your capital goes into those investments? 3. Do you make changes to your portfolio along the way? Whenever he receives questions from people, those questions usually fall into one of the above categories. There is never perfection when trying to predict how a portfolio will perform but Robert stresses that if you start your investing answering the above questions, you will be on the right track. After the right portfolio and financial tools have been selected it’s necessary to understand different types of returns. Michael and Robert finish the podcast discussing differences between geometric and arithmetic returns.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Portfolio selection
  • Benchmarks
  • International investing
  • Fundamental trading
  • Warren Buffett trading
  • Expected average performance
  • Leveraging a portfolio
  • Luck vs. Skill
  • Venture capitalism
Direct download: 607.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael throws Jeff Bezos, Amazon and trend following into a giant melting pot. Jeff Bezos is a trend following trader – along with venture capitalists, Hollywood, the MIT black jack team, Warren Buffett (to some degree, yes), and many more.

Michael notes an excerpt from a document written in 1983, gleaning wisdom from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt. Not relevant today? Think again. Richard Dennis makes it clear in the document that you never know where the next home run is coming from – missing a big payout is just as bad as taking a loss. Are you guilty of forgetting about big opportunity when trading? Do you focus too much on your downside? Most unfortunately get fixated on the downside and ignore the positive unknown.

Michael also notes an article written by Li Jiang titled, “What I Learned From Reading Every Amazon Shareholders Letter.” Li lists key lessons he has pulled from shareholder letters: type I and type II decisions, end each day of business like it is the first day, always operate like a hungry upstart, only the paranoid survive, make small bets because you can’t predict anything, move fast and break things, and if you are offered a seat on a rocketship – don’t ask which seat, just get on. Jeff Bezos’ words dovetail seamlessly with trend following philosophy. Thinking outside the box is essential to making great things can happen.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Jeff Bezos
  • Amazon
  • Type 1 errors/decisions
  • Type 2 errors/decisions
  • Sunk cost
  • Opportunity cost
  • Prediction
  • Trend following is dead?
Direct download: 606.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Mark Kritzman is a Senior Lecturer in Finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management, founding Partner and Chief Executive Officer of Windham Capital Management and serves as a senior partner of State Street Associates. Mark has written six books, his latest titled “A Practitioners Guide to Asset Allocation”.

Mark began his career on Wall Street in 1974 and was immediately drawn toward systematic trading. At a time when there were not many quantitative traders, he was affectionately titled a “token quant” within his company.

Over the years Mark has been an advisor to many funds. While working with various companies it became clear fund managers were mixing how they invest with how they would choose asset classes. He decided to break down the most basic and logical ways of organizing the investment process. What are some components of an asset class: stable composition, be investable, internally homogeneous, externally heterogeneous, raise the utility of a portfolio, and you should be able to access it in a cost effective way. From there, depending on a persons risk, different combinations of asset classes would make up a portfolio.

Being in the game as long as Mark has, he has been able to witness the enduring and turbulent nature of markets. He saw one silver lining come out of the 2008 financial crisis – it provided a context where investors could go back to the basics of trading, and in particular, recalibrate how they manage risk. Mark finishes the podcast talking fixed weight portfolios, Peter Bernstein on scaling portfolio risk, dynamic asset allocation and explaining Samuelson’s Dictum.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Definition of an asset class
  • Actively managed portfolios
  • Passively managed portfolios
  • Time diversification
  • Portfolio diversification
  • The fallacy of large numbers
  • Leverage
  • Value at risk
  • Risk management
  • Fear and greed
  • Risk and reward
  • Exposure to risk
Direct download: 605.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today’s mega combo episode is Chris Voss, Robert Cialdini, Philip Tetlock, Spyros Makridakis, and Tim Ferriss.

Chris Voss is the author of, Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It. Chris is a former international hostage negotiator for the FBI. He has had an amazing career full of great experience and insights. Chris first entered the FBI in 1983 and has been involved with over 150 kidnapping cases.

Robert Cialdini is best known for writing Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion published back in 1984. Robert is the “go to man” for understanding effective persuasion. Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking and scarcity are six key principles of influence he teaches. His new book, Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade, introduces a seventh key principle of influence.

Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, is probabilistic thinking defined. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting.

Spyros Makridakis is Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world’s leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions.

Tim Ferriss is an author, blogger and motivational speaker known for his bestselling books. Tim has revolutionized the idea of writing a book; he has engineered the process of a bestseller.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Aversion to negotiation
  • Negotiating skills
  • Never pretend people are rational
  • Business negotiations compared to hostage negotiations
  • Lying three times
  • “How” and “Why” questions
  • What are superforecasters?
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Looking at data
  • Location independence
  • 80/20 rule
  • Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
  • Uncertainty
  • How to publish a book
Direct download: 604.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Frank Ostaseski has dedicated his life to helping others. He is co-founder of the Zen Hospice Project and founder of the Metta Institute. Frank is a Buddhist teacher, international lecturer and expert on the end-of-life experience. His work spans from helping the homeless to the wealthy to the young and to the elderly have an easier transition to the other side. Frank loves what he does because of how “real” the experience of death is. His new book is The Five Invitations: Discovering What Death Can Teach Us About Living Fully.

How did Frank begin helping people with the experience of death? It was not a linear path. Frank had experiences with death early on in his life with the passing of his parents. He later was introduced to the Buddhist practice with the central tenet of Buddhism being the study of constant change. When his son was born he felt it was important to “birth his soul”. He went to a program where everyone was grieving and learning about the loss of a soul. Frank on the other hand, wanted to learn how to gain a soul for his son. He didn’t find much help with that, however the leader of the program invited him back to see first hand what experiencing death was like. He later visited Central America working in refugee camps where he saw a lot of misery and death. He then went to San Francisco when the aids epidemic was running rampant on the streets. Each experience kept pulling him in a little more and more and every death he witnesses continues to show him how precious and precarious life is.

Frank’s five invitations, outlined in his book, have become his road map and guidelines for life: don’t wait, welcome everything and push away nothing, bring your whole self to the experience, find a place of rest in the middle of things, and cultivate don’t know mind.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The territory of mystery
  • The inevitability and intimacy of dying
  • How saying goodbye at a party relates to saying goodbye when dying
  • Importance of human connection
  • Don’t wait
  • The reality of constant change
  • Openness during the travel experience
  • Trusting our intuition
  • Common humanity
  • Resting in the middle of activity
  • Discovering the truth
  • Stoicism
Direct download: 603.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Mike Salguero is a serial entrepreneur. His newest venture is Butcher Box – delivering meat from the farm straight to your door. He got his start in the business space selling t-shirts in high school and continued making t-shirts throughout college. He credits his t-shirt businesses to teaching him how to market and grow a brand from the ground up.

Mike’s first large scale business was a company that helped carpenters market and sell their custom furniture. The company was called CustomMade. Mike and his business partner bought the URL for $150,000, revamped the website, raised $30 million of venture capital and at it’s peak employed 60 people. By the time Mike left the company they were down to 6 employees. His partner stayed with it and has turned the company around, but most investors lost everything. He learned a lot from CustomMade – the paramount lesson being how to market a product.

Butcher Box was started a few years after stepping away from CustomMade. Mike and his wife wanted to eat cleaner and healthier. He found a farmer whom he was able to buy grass fed, humanely raised, hormone free meat from. After about a year of buying the meat for himself and his friends he started learning how he could turn buying grass fed meat into a business. Mike started the company with $10,000 of his own money and did a Kickstarter campaign that raised $215,000. Today, they are north of 30,000 subscribers with three distribution facilities. Butcher Box sells beef, chicken, and pork from hundreds of different farms across America. What is their #1 goal? To replace the butcher.

Michael ends the podcast asking Mike, “What is the one thing I didn’t ask you in this conversation that you want the audience to know?” Mike drives home the point that if you want create a successful business you have to have extreme discipline focused on seeing how you are going to get to the next day, week, quarter and beyond. Most think they need to raise lots of money. That focus needs to shift to building a great company, with a great business model, that you are able to personally manage without outside investors.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Benefits of eating grass fed meat
  • Marketing a product
  • Commodity meat vs. grass fed
  • Raising capital (or the importance of not raising capital)
  • Entrepreneurism
  • Starting a business
Direct download: 602.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ryan Moran is founder of Capitalism.com and Freedom Fast Lane. He started with nothing and turned himself into a successful entrepreneur. Ryan helps other self-starting high achievers build their business, reinvest their profits, find freedom in their work and move away from the 9-5 mindset.

Ryan entered college thinking his life would go down a much different path. He grew up in a religious family and went to college to become a minister. Everything changed for him while sitting in an economics class listening to the morals behind an economic system. His professor explained money as an exchange of value. This was a new concept to Ryan. Looking at money as an exchange of value made him realize making money was a positive rather than something to feel guilty about. It was a source of freedom rather than a source of greed or evil.

Ryan quickly saw capitalism and entrepreneurism as the only system where he could define the world he wanted to live in, rather than having it defined for him. As the millennial generation matures there seems to be a desire for the state to fix everything. People change the most when they see actual results that make a difference personally in their life. Ryan shares examples of people getting in the game, participating in transactions, and getting motivated. Free market allows the chance for everyone to create and have a light bulb moment. The more empowered people are, the less need for state intervention.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Intentional community
  • Capitalism
  • Free market society
  • Opportunity making products
  • Free market society
  • Capitalism vs. Cronyism
  • 2008 crash
  • Life is a gift
  • Artificial intelligence
Direct download: 601.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Roger Ver, also known as “Bitcoin Jesus”, started his first company in Silicon Valley while still in college and made his first million before 25. Roger is a libertarian who has dedicated his life to the pursuit of getting individuals to interact outside the state system. He has been a relentless advocate for blockchain currency, pouring all his capital and energy into the startup. Also, Roger is currently working out the details of starting a non-government run country.

Roger began turning away from government while in grade school. He was learning about the military draft in school and the idea of forcing individuals into fighting seemed backwards to him. He had read a book by libertarian Murray N. Rothbard who related the draft to kidnapping and slavery. Roger now defines government as “A small group of people that claim the right to use violence against peaceful people.” There shouldn’t be an exception for government. Other humans do not have the right to take our money or order others to kill people. Why should the government?

Roger is currently starting a non-government run territory. This non-country will have no government, but instead will be run by principles of the Anarcho-Capitalism philosophy. Right now he has over $100 million dollars of private capital committed to this non-country. Money raised will be used to purchase a plot of land for the free society to operate. He has the hope of purchasing other pieces of land and continuing to grow his non-government led society. Michael finishes the conversation asking Roger, “Looking ahead, where do you see things evolving in the next five years? Will there be a rapid adoption of crypto currency? Are we potentially close to that?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Voluntarism
  • Libertarianism
  • Bitcoin in Tokyo
  • Victimless crimes
  • Morality
  • Free Society
Direct download: 600.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael has audio books for Trend Following (fourth and fifth editions), The Complete TurtleTrader and Trend Commandments. He starts the podcast today playing the afterword to the 5th edition of Trend Following written by Larry Hite. He follows this reading with Stig Ostgaard’s white paper titled “The Origins of Trend Following” first published in Trend Commandments. Michael finishes up the podcast playing a full chapter on psychology from his newest edition of Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Psychology of trading
  • Irrationality of people
  • Behavioral economics
  • The meaning of money
  • NLP
  • Evolution of trend following
  • How Larry Hite began trading
  • Risk management
Direct download: 599.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today’s combo episode consists of four classic episodes aggregated into one big modern podcast. Jack Schwager, Peter Brandt, Larry Williams and Toby Crabel are four pro traders who hopefully give every listener an aha moment.

Jack Schwager is author of the Market Wizards series and just completed his second edition of A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Trading, Spreads, and Options.

Peter Brandt is author of Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading, and a trader who has been in the commodity trading space since 1976. He has traded his own proprietary account from the late 1970’s until today, and is currently entering the hedge fund world by running a multi-CTA fund-of-funds.

Larry Williams is the author of eleven books, most on stocks and commodity trading. He is also a stock and commodity trader, and politician. He has been in the trading game for over four decades and his name is well known in all trading circles.

Toby Crabel is founder of Crabel Capital Management. Toby is a short term systematic trader which is a much different trading style than trend following. Toby is also a former pro tennis player and has a philosophical nature in discussing the trading world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamentals vs. Technical analysis
  • Risk management
  • Contrarian view on fundamentals
  • Charting
  • Science vs. art in trading
  • Whipsaws
  • Exploiting trends
  • Sharpe ratio
  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Five minute chart patterns vs. a weekly chart patterns
  • Mistakes as a novice trader
  • Averaging losers
  • Risk management
  • Upside volatility
  • Reducing incessant head chatter
  • Living in the moment of now.
  • Price movement and volume
    Price shocks
    Diversification
    Objectivism
Direct download: 598.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Moritz Czubatinski specializes in helping traders get going. He has been traveling, trading and running a business for about 8 years. Tradeciety, his first business, was formed to help traders get started in the markets. Next, Moritz started a trading journal software company called Edgewonk. Every trader needs a journal, and when Moritz started out trading, there were no practical journals available.

Moritz started off as a professional poker player but wanted a more legitimate way of making money. He started his trading career with zero education in finance and now trades off 8 to 10 charts for 6 to 8 hours a day. He was use to playing 24 tables of poker at a time (online) so Moritz is use to the constant action. He saw trading as a perfect career shift. Another positive about making the jump to trading from poker? The playing field is constant. In poker, as you get better, the players you play against get better. In trading, the great traders are forever competing against newbies.

What is Moritz favorite market? He likes trading currency futures because it is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Michael asks if this type of constant action, from a concentration and time stand point, will be more difficult for today’s generation. Are they able to sit in front of a screen 6 to 8 hours a day? Will they be as successful at it? 90% of the people Moritz mentors will not stay in day trading. Most feel miserable. Moritz watches a screen all day for work and then to relax, he plays video games. Watching screens is just what he loves to do. Michael and Moritz finish the conversation talking travel the best places to visit.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bitcoin
  • Currencies
  • Win rates vs. Risk ratios
  • Trading time frames
  • Poker
  • Day trading
  • Winning vs. losing probabilities
  • Richard Dennis in the trading pits
  • Trading journal
  • Sleep hygiene
Direct download: 597.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT

Rob Arnott is an entrepreneur, author, investor, and writer. He serves as Chairman and CEO of Research Affiliates LLC. advising on over $160 billion dollars in institutional investment assets. Rob is one of the worlds preeminent voices on investment strategy.

What was Rob like as a young man? At age 16 he was extremely mathematically inclined with an avid interest in both the stock market and astronomy. He wasn’t sure which path he wanted, but he knew his mathematical skills were good enough for a top tier job in finance, but not in astronomy. So he took his math skills and entered the world of finance.

Rob has been with quantitative investing since it’s inception in the 70’s. With the rise in computer capabilities, quant traders were able to start to make a name for themselves in the trading community. What is one of the biggest failings of the quant community? Traders have fallen into a trap of making systems so complex that the average investor can no longer understand them. He is a big fan of keeping things simple.

What is one rule Rob always sticks by? If you have an idea you think is a good, always try. There will be others that came before you, but that doesn’t mean your idea won’t be just as successful or more successful. However, if you never try, you will never know. When it comes to investing what is another rule? Diversification is key.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • An addiction to complexity
  • Fundamental indexing
  • Momentum trading
  • How to use valuation
  • Benchmarks
  • Diversification
  • Modern finance
  • Weighting your portfolio
Direct download: 596.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Jerry Parker was one of the original TurtleTraders trained by Richard Dennis. He has had unbelievable success over his four decade career. Jerry has a straightforward way of breaking down how trend following works.

Trend following has typical highs and lows. During the lows, there will always be people pronouncing it dead. Trend following systems are built to protect capital by using diversification and built in stop-losses to counter down periods. Said another way, there is “crash protection” built into a robust trend following strategy. On the flip side, trend following systems are built to exploit the market when it is trending up.

How easy is it to get into different markets with a trend following strategy? The great thing about systematic trading is you become an instant expert in any market. As long as you have the data, you can jump right in and trade. When you are looking at price alone, you come to find that stocks are all the same – Tesla and Coffee are traded identically.

What is the most important thing to keep in mind when trading a trend following system? Having the proper leverage is key. No system is immune to risk of ruin. Sometimes you need to adjust your leverage, reduce your risk, and do whatever you can to stay in the game. Trend following, at it’s core, is a boring strategy. It is simple and that is why it works. Choose an algorithm and from there you can choose how simple you want to make your system. But everything starts with an algorithm.

Are there any resources Jerry recommends? Cliff Asness is a great resource. He is a smart, funny, and humble person that teaches valuable information to anyone that wants to listen. After all, the best way to gain knowledge is to probe the minds of successful people and learn everything you can from them.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Diversification
  • Becoming an expert in all markets
  • Risk aversion
  • Why the idea of “simple” works
  • Fall targeting
  • Buying markets on the cheap
  • Learning from experts
Direct download: 595.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Having the right fundamental information will never guarantee success. Ray Dalio, one of the biggest traders on Wall Street says he trades off of fully automated fundamentals. If this is true what fundamentals does he choose to automate? In the same head space Larry Tentarelli forwarded Michael a tweet recently. It was a tweet from an executive associated with a big USA trading firm. This executive was asked by a business student, “What does a typical week look like for you?” His list went like this [Michael digs in]… How much time is being wasted?

If consuming that information isn’t needed then what do you use to trade? One piece of information – price. You take the price and look at the trend. Things in motion tend to stay in motion. Forming rules that you can stick to when the big trends come is key to anyone’s trading success.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Data mining
  • Managing risk based on fundamental information
  • Weekly routines
  • Cocktail party banter
  • Desert island trading
  • Fundamental trading
  • Thinking properly
Direct download: 594.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Scott Galloway is a professor at New York University Stern School of Business teaching brand strategy and digital marketing. He has started nine firms and his weekly YouTube series has generated millions of views. Scott is also author of “The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google.”

Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google are arguably the most influential entities in the world. These companies have deconstructed who humans are as a species and reassembled who humans are, in the form of for-profit companies. They have scaled up so fast and become so successful by understanding humans most common questions and producing answers instantly. Scott breaks down the specific reasons each of these companies have individually thrived: Google = God, Facebook = Love, Amazon = Consumption, and Apple = Sex.

Mediocre and cheap products have been pushed in years past. However, people have new tools allowing them to practice due diligence and find what product is best for them personally. A better product is the best and only way to brand in today’s marketplace. With customer reviews built into Google and Amazon, they have changed the entire course of how people buy.

These four companies have done a lot of good, but have they become so big that they have become bad for society? In some ways, they are leveraging their power to unhealthy heights. Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google yield more money and more power than some foreign governments. This has allowed them certain privileges such as tax avoidance and immunity to government oversight. What is another negative? Amazon has literally sucked the oxygen out of other top companies such as Nordstrom, Macy’s, and Sears. Facebook and Google have taken over the digital marketing world. If you are not working with Facebook or Google, then you are marketing with newspapers or magazine — rapidly declining markets. Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google are not only in zero sum markets, they are creating zero competitors.

What are some great leadership qualities from these top companies? Jeff Bezos, for example, has always kept a long term outlook on consumption rather than short-term. He also has combined fast and free service. Tim Cook has tripled the value of Apple. Apple is the first company in history to have great quality and spend extremely low on production. Facebook has shown tremendous agility in their management. Michael and Scott finish the conversation talking government, and how these companies yield their power in the political arena.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Amazon, Google, Apple, and Facebook
  • Ecosystem of Silicon Valley
  • Zero sum nature of Amazon
  • Jeff Bezos
  • Tim Cook
  • Mark Zuckerberg
  • Political views of Amazon, Google, Apple, and Facebook
  • Strong leadership qualities
  • Monopolies
Direct download: 593.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Larry David is one guy who is totally OK with the unexpected. He wrote and starred in the hit show, Curb Your Enthusiasm. He wanted total control of writing the show and didn’t want HBO looking over his shoulder. However, the show has no script. The actors are comfortable going into the unknown and winging it. So much of our modern world is pre-packaged and scripted down to the last syllable. Larry David knows that life is all about the surprise, and people value that surprise factor.

What do these examples have in common with the stock market? Markets are unpredictable. Yes, it is necessary to have a game plan but with constant unexpected changes, you need to know what to do when things deviate from the plan. Chaos exists, there is no getting around it. To be successful in the game you must look past the chaos and know how to profit from it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Luck in life
  • What happens when plans deviate
  • Chaos is not a pit
  • The realm
Direct download: 592.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Jeffrey Tucker is an American economics writer of the Austrian School, an advocate of anarcho-capitalism and Bitcoin, and has authored seven books. Jeffrey’s new book, coming out September 2017, is titled “Right Wing Collectivism: The Other Threat to Liberty.”

Michael and Jeffrey start the conversation talking information. Regimes come and go, but information we share with one another cuts through governments. Interactions with others and the tools we use to spread information are what shapes history, rather than governments trying to put their spin on it. Government officials are not visionaries, they do not define the world, they do not create history. They spend their term in office gearing up to get elected for their next term in office. The more responsibility taken out of government’s hands the better. This leads us to Bitcoin…

Why is Bitcoin so important? Bitcoin represents freedom. It’s an international currency, trades the same globally and has increased in value over time. Jeffery has been studying monetary theory since he was an undergraduate. He wrote his thesis on the gold standard and assumed he had the monetary system figured out. So naturally, when Bitcoin came out, he dismissed the idea. After a few years went by, he was forced to acknowledge the advancement of crypto currency. He now looks at markets far differently than he did in the first part of his career. He knows that the markets know much more than any person could ever understand.

Jeffrey switches the conversation to another passionate subject for him, child labor laws. Youth have bought into the idea of needing a college degree to get the right job. Parents see pushing higher education on their children as a way of guaranteeing their children’s success. Unfortunately, degrees are not necessary in today’s age. Youth unemployment and child labor is a major leading factor to issues later in life. Many kids never have their first job until after they graduate from college and every year thousands of college students graduate still dependent on their parents.

Michael and Jeffrey finish up the podcast discussing corporate taxes and building digital walls. The American economy would experience spectacular gains if corporate taxes were slashed. Cutting personal income tax would be nice, however corporate income taxes being cut is the first phase of reform. Our economy also is being hurt by slowing down the flow of information and trying to block it. Is the world going in the direction of building digital walls? Are governments slowing down growth potential by blocking information? Absolutely.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Liberty
  • Friedrich Hayek
  • Crypto currency
  • Ledger technology
  • Block chains
  • Excessive waves of hysteria
  • College debt
  • Tax laws
  • Trump administration
  • Nation state
  • Building blocks for a civilized society
Direct download: 591.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Recently after running sprints, Michael decided to walk home a different way. He ended up walking next to a woman with an artificial foot. She was about 4’9″, 75lbs, missing a foot but looked as if she was still kicking ass. From Michael’s perspective, she had no excuses. She was not sitting at home, complaining. Too many these days complain about their weight, gender, political views, political correctness, etc. — and use anything they can as an excuse for why life is unfair.

How do you break free from that mentality? What is the process? What system should be put in place? Creating a routine is a great place to start and has many self-help advantages. Having a routine can help center a person and allow them to measure and see personal achievement.

News prevents us from living authentically. It is not real. It is something thrown at us on a daily basis with an agenda by those creating it. The same can be said for politics. A true experience is you walking down the street and noticing what is going on — taking in the sights, sounds and smells of your environment and making decisions about your life based on those experiences. As shown in news and in politics, this type of thinking is rapidly disappearing. There is nothing rational about how people think. People are crazy and that will never change.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Having a system/routine
  • Life is a series of choices
  • Finding meaning in life
  • Lemmings
  • How your actions define you
  • Learning from others and experiences
  • American politics
Direct download: 590.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Rayner Teo is a 29-year old self-made, independent, ex-prop trader from Singapore. He also is the most followed trader in Singapore. Where does Rayner stand, in numbers, with social media followers? He has about 22,000 followers on YouTube and his Facebook community consists of about 15,000. Most of his followers love what he does, however, with every public figure there are always haters. Rayner gives his perspective on his social media reach and how to deal with trolls.

Rayner entered the military (mandatory) at age 19. 97% of men entering the military end up in the same training camp, however Rayner was placed in an elite camp of men who are the first to go into combat — due to a glitch on his part in his application. Even though life was hard during his time in the military, it did award him his first “aha” moment — he realized his mind was much stronger than his body. He was able to take his body far past limitations that his mind had set. The military also promoted a mind frame of excellence, and that has been a driving force in his life.

Throughout the episode Rayner expands on: the importance of charting wins and charting losses, the true reality of trading, preparing for the big losses so you can wait for the big wins and taking responsibility for your losses so there is opportunity to learn from them.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Social media
  • Pitfalls of trading contests
  • Charting performance
  • Predicting trading outcomes
  • Best trading strategies for part time traders
  • Filtering out noise
  • Taking 100% responsibility for the good and bad in life
Direct download: 589.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Dan Pena is a high performance coach, philanthropist, businessman and author. He has seen every type of business imaginable. He brings an attitude that inspires and provokes action.

The pussification of America has come to fruition through low self-esteem individuals creating a snowflake generation. Youth today are being raised by beta males who aren’t teaching them how to live strong, persistent and driven lives. Dan explains why the lack of alpha males in today’s society is the root of the politically correct driven culture.

When someone has a beta personality, they tend to be less than a high performance achiever. High performance people succeed because they get things done. They walk the walk on a consistent basis. They do not live a sheltered, PC life. How do they accomplish this? Picking the right friends is the first key to success. Pushing yourself to be around others who inspire, will lead to you being inspired. When kids are around other kids looking for success, they are given a much higher probability of becoming successful.

Dan doesn’t have a subtle, gentle teaching style – as anyone can sense from this podcast. His students regularly ask him, “Why are you so mean? Why do you use such harsh language?” He responds by saying, “Because life is hard.” Most people want change, but they only want change that conforms to their definition — and that is not change. That is staying the same.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Lack of leadership in today’s society
  • Alpha males
  • Beta males
  • Getting out of victim mode
  • Political correctness syndrome
  • Snowflakes
Direct download: 588.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Robert Sutton is Professor of Management science at the Stanford Engineering School and researcher in the field of Evidence-based management. Sutton is also the best-selling author of “The No Asshole Rule.” What does it mean to live in a “no asshole environment”? It means to weed out the people who demean and make you and others feel horrible. He gives the science and craft behind how to deal with assholes, how to prune these people from your life and get out of negative situations.

But the question ever since that book has been:

“Help, I’m dealing with an asshole! What can I do?”

Sutton has heard that question asked in a thousand different ways. He answers the question in “The Asshole Survival Guide: How to Deal with People Who Treat You Like Dirt”. It shifts focus from building civilized workplaces to providing relief for anybody who feels plagued and pushed around by assholes.

The Asshole Survival Guide delivers a cogent and methodical game plan. Sutton starts with diagnosis—what kind of asshole problem, exactly, are you dealing with? From there, he provides field-tested, evidence-based, and sometimes surprising strategies for dealing with assholes—avoiding them, outwitting them, disarming them, sending them packing, and developing protective psychological armor.

Ultimately, this survival guide is about developing an outlook and personal plan that will help you preserve the sanity in your work life, and will prevent all those perfectly good days from being ruined by some jerk.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The no asshole rule
  • The role of assholes in entrepreneurship
  • Steve Jobs
  • Demeaned and de-energized
  • Self-awareness
  • Depression in relation to to workplace
  • Weeding out nasty people from your life
  • The asshole tax
  • Avoiding “the crazy”
Direct download: 587.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Jason Calacanis is a venture capitalist, entrepreneur, angel investor, author, blogger and has years of perspective when it comes to investing in start ups. His new book is “Angel: How to Invest in Technology Startups–Timeless Advice from an Angel Investor Who Turned $100,000 into $100,000,000”. Even if you never plan on becoming an angel investor, his book is a great look at how the modern economy works.

Technology is accelerating at an ever-increasing rate and Jason argues that there are approximately 30 million jobs that will disappear in upcoming years due to advancements in technology. He wrote his book to try and help people step away from the usual way of thinking and look at where the world is moving. For example, the cheapest car you could buy today is far and above more sophisticated than the most expensive car you could have bought 20 years ago. When Jason evaluates a company, he looks at a couple things: What is in the best interest of society? And what is the best technology that we can use to get there?

What is Silicon Valley like through the eyes of someone living and breathing it? Jason talks about Silicon Valley as the center of the world. There is an infectious need to look for the next $100 billion dollar idea rather than the next million dollar idea. It’s also very liberal, political and quirky. It is where the largest amount of high power tech companies derive from.

What is the biggest factor in becoming a successful angel investor? Success in angel investing comes down to portfolio diversification. You need to cast a wide net, knowing you are going to have a lot of loser companies. There are massive implied odds. The upside to finding a winning company far exceeds any amount of losses you may incur. Michael relates this to the Babe Ruth effect and Jason puts his own spin on it, “Finding a winning company is more like the equivalent of a grand slam scoring 100 runs rather than just four.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Creating a global footprint
  • Who is able to export their ideas around the world
  • Silicon Valley
  • Chinese border controls
  • Unicorn companies
  • Portfolio diversification
  • Risk aversion
Direct download: 586.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Laura Doyle is bestselling author of “The Surrendered Wife”, and her newest work is “The Empowered Wife.” Relationships are a skill just like everything else in life. They can be hard and sometimes and having some basic survival tools could make the difference between having a failed relationship or a thriving relationship. Laura gives a perspective and tools that we can all use in our modern day relationships.

Laura went through thousands of hours and thousands of dollars of marriage counseling that did not work before she tried asking her friends what they were doing right in their relationships. She wanted to learn what was working for them and what hadn’t worked for them over the years. Her main “aha” moment was when she realized the problems her and her husband were having were self inflicted.

Who has the most power in a relationship? How do you make your spouse feel respected? What are some main differences emotionally between men and women? What type of language do men respond best to? What type of language do women respond best to? Laura answers these questions and more on today’s podcast.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Different traits between men and women
  • Femininity
  • Men and Women are more powerful together
  • Self care
  • Spouse fulfilling prophecy
Direct download: 585.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael dives in for a weekly monologue. Listen at your own peril.

Direct download: 584.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Richard Clarke is co-author of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.” Richard was also the former National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection and Counter-terrorism for the United States. He worked for the government starting with Ronald Reagan’s Presidency and continued to move up the ladder until he resigned in 2003 under President George W. Bush’s presidency.

Was there a starting point to Islamist terrorism? Were American’s affected much by the Gulf War? What was some red flags raised about the World Trade Center bombing? What are Cassandras? What did we know, and what were some warning signs at the time of 9-11? Why did we still go to war after 9-11 when the evidence was so lacking to go into Iraq? Michael and Richard go through these questions and many more throughout the podcast. Michael ends the interview asking Richard, “How can you see the next 10 to 20 years unfolding?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Gulf War
  • Islamist terrorism
  • World Trade Center bombing
  • Osama bin Laden
  • The underestimation of Al-Qaida
  • Forcing democracy on the world
  • 9-11
  • War on Iraq
  • Global Warming
Direct download: 583.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

You won’t expect or see this episode coming… First, consider a truism: Asian American students dominate in academia. Asian Americans know that if they get the right scores, and check off all the boxes, they get the good school. However, this is not how it works at Harvard and other Ivy League institutions. They don’t operate based on who has the best test scores.

Michael reads a passage from a New York Times article illustrating the injustices in Harvard’s admission processes. Once one ethnic quota has been filled, that’s it. No more students can me admitted. Public universities handle their admission process differently. Asian Americans make up 34% of The University of California’s student body as apposed to about 15% of Asian Americans allowed to attend the Ivy schools due to diversity regulations.

“America, the home of equality?” This catch phrase has gone by the way side. When students work hard, but then are slapped down because of their race, this goes against the American dream. And when the system turns against you its time to make a choice: Fight against it or walk away? Michael’s answer is counter-intuitive and dovetails with trend following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Ivy League quotas
  • The American dream
  • Asian Americans
  • Fair competition
  • The secret sauce myth
  • Letting go
Direct download: 578.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

A new mono… with some freaking edge.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Warren Buffett
  • Black box trading
Direct download: 572.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Andrew Lo is author of “Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought.” He is also the Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor of Finance at MIT and the chairman and chief investment strategist of the AlphaSimplex Group.

Andrew was taught from the beginning of his career that the efficient market hypothesis was gospel truth. It was the end-all-be-all. However, he first found a problem with the efficient market hypothesis just after graduating college. He did a test on the “random walk hypothesis” and related his findings from that hypothesis to the markets. He then came to find that his results proved the efficient market hypothesis wrong. Was there pushback during the early stages of talking about EMT being wrong? Absolutely. Andrew was one of the strongest that pushed back primarily because it went against everything he previously knew to be true.

Andrew talks about another study he did with one of his MIT classes in 2004. He looked at hedge funds around that time and through data he proved that they were headed for trouble. They were able to foresee a small piece of the 2008 crash. Michael and Andrew end the podcast talking about Andrew’s new book and the role that the environment is playing in adaptive markets. When studying a species, what should be asked is, “Is it the species that is complex, or is it the environment that is complex and the species is just adapting to it?” Many species have figured out how to live in harsh environments in very different ways. In the same light, there are many different ways that people can trade the market and be successful.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Adaptive markets hypothesis
  • The random walk hypothesis
  • Crowded trade phenomenon
  • 2008 meltdown
  • Paul Samuelson
  • Commodities Corporation
Direct download: 569.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Steve Burns and Michael Covel get together yet again to discuss all that is trading.

After a lifelong fascination with financial markets, Steve Burns started investing in 1993, and trading his own accounts in 1995. It was love at first trade. A natural teacher with a unique ability to cut through the bull and make complex ideas simple, Steve took to blogging and social media by founding New Trader U in 2011.

Since then, New Trader U has attracted hundreds of thousands of visits a month, becoming the go-to resource for people wanting to build a strong, trading foundation. New Trader U offers an extensive blog resource with more than 1,000 original articles (Steve posts daily and is the author of numerous trading books).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trend following
  • Taking a loss
  • Risk management
  • Proper psychology
  • Mindset
Direct download: 568.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Chris Fussell starts the podcast explaining the process of becoming a Seal. The teams of the Special Forces do not select as much as they down select. Out of the 150 people who start a Seals class, maybe 25 will make it. The military uses rigorous training to sort out “who has it” and who doesn’t it. People have to have special inherent skills and then they are nurtured to refine those skills. A good team is made up of individuals that complement each others shortcomings and are able to magnify each others strength.

Chris stresses that these men have all the same burdens that civilians have, they just have it coupled with combat stressors as well. They deploy for an amount of time and then come how to a wife, kids, and a stack of bills. Everyone, especially soldiers, need to have a cocktail of coping tools so there is a balance between work and personal life. You can’t be amazing at work and have your family falling apart. Things will start to unravel at work rapidly.

Chris was a young officer in 2004 when the conflict in Iraq started. This was his first full scale conflict. He had the misconception that there was a set plan going in, and that all they had to do was execute that plan. Chris quickly learned he wasn’t entering a stable environment. Everyone needed to be proactive and adaptive to the war zone.

Now that Chris is helping manage a company, he uses that experience to always adapt and readjust. He realizes he needs small teams with a rapid fire adaption mentality. People need to see a problem and intuitively react to it. While in the Navy Seals they re-strategized every 24 hours. There were 6,000-7,000 people around the world sharing a consciousness every 24 hours. The most seasoned teams were able to run with speed and autonomy without checking in because of this once a day communication. They were able to make decisions on their own and be highly effective.

Chris and Michael end the podcast discussing what makes a working relationship. Relationships are grounded in knowing other perspectives. We have to be willing to see things differently and know that both individuals, when there is a disagreement, could be right. When you are on a team and leading with the perspective that everyone is part of your family, it turns teams into a more giving and trusting environment.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Nature vs. Nurture
  • Inner drive
  • Self-awareness
  • Charisma
  • Learning from failure
  • Synchronicity between data and leadership
  • Zealots and martyrs
Direct download: 567.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Fear drives all in today’s world. Two operations who have not let fear dictate their trading are Berkshire Hathaway and Dunn Capital. Both have 40+ year track records that should be studied. What was their system? How has it worked? If you look at the month by month and year by year of these two much can be learned. Both track records have not just gone up, up, up–they have had massive drawdowns (at least by the definitions of mortals) and still they have been able to persevere. No matter who you are, the ability to adapt to the markets is mission critical.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Drawdowns
  • Dunn Capital performance
  • Warren Buffett performance
  • Risk management
  • Ego in trading
  • Cognitive dissidence
  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Black Swans
  • Transparency
  • Critics; Trolls!
Direct download: 566.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

R.P. Eddy is an American businessman, venture investor, former U.S. government official and former U.N. diplomat. He is currently the CEO of Ergo, a strategy and geo political intelligence firm. R.P. is also co-author of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.”

How did Fukushima happen? There were lots of Cassandras who knew there were issues. There were warnings thousands of years old, along with experts telling officials not to build the nuclear plant so low. Hurricane Katrina in the United States is another example where there were Cassandras who had the foresight to fix potential disaster, but were ignored. What would have happened if there was foresight to Saddam Hussein and the Kuwait invasion? A man named Charlie Allen had that foresight but was pushed aside.

With such credible people having undeniable evidence being ignored, this brings up the question: How does a dynamic change in government happen? It doesn’t. R.P. did a study finding that 1% of the public think for themselves to make informed decisions. As people turn on the T.V. or surf the internet they find biased information. It’s hard to sit down, find unbiased information and make opinions of their own. When we have Cassandras who come out with real data and information to make changes that can save thousands, it is hard to decipher if they are chicken little or the real thing.

R.P. profiled in depth Cassandras ranging from: Fukushima, Katrina, Madoff, 2008 collapse, the rise of Isis, and the invasion of Kuwait. In every instance the Cassandra went to the decision makers and asked the question, “Why are you ignoring all the data?!” The more outlandish the warning, the easier it is to be ignored. People who understand what is wrong with our brains, the ones who doubt themselves and double check data are the traders and leaders who thrive. Michael and R.P. end discussing nuclear weapons theory, North Korea, potential Cassandras, India vs. Pakistan, and why we should all stop and reassess the information that is fed us.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Indicators and warning
  • Analysis and foresight
  • Pax Americana
  • Fukushima
  • Corruption vs. competence
  • Bernie Madoff
  • Black Swans
  • 2008 collapse
Direct download: 556.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Erik Wahl is author of “The Spark and The Grind,” “Unthink,” and “Unchain the Elephant.” Starting from an early age Erik was never encouraged in the arts but rather encouraged in his reading, writing and athletics. He believed that if he got straight A’s he would be successful later on in life. Things generally worked out for him–until the Dot-com bubble hit. He was devastated and realized he needed to figure out a new way to live.

Erik started meeting artists rather than business types. He came to find that mainstream society does not understand artists and because of this, many of these people would become, for lack of a better term, “tortured artists.” The love of art is what launched him into work as a professional artist. Art was not about producing a product but rather about a new way of thinking. He began processing information in a whole new way, not just linear.

Everyone has creative ideas. What sets people apart is how they chose to leverage and use it. When Erik does any presentation he starts off creating a painting on stage to rock music in 3 minutes. He is disrupting thinking by showing the audience rather than telling them. Unless you know how to use agility and mental dexterity you will be left behind. Erik teaches how to tap into creativity and adapt to the increasing rate of change happening in the world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Dot-com bubble
  • 2008 crisis
  • Routine and structure
  • Misconceptions of overnight success
  • Embracing the grind
  • Mental agility
Direct download: 547.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael’s first edition of Trend Following hit April 2004. Since both Michael and trend following were largely “under the radar at the time” the publisher did not put much money into the first edition and it was not carried in bookstores. Since it’s inception, however, Trend Following has become a bestseller with 4 editions, 100,000+ sold, and now a 5th edition out April 24, 2017. Michael goes into detail outlining this new edition (double the size) and how it gives Trend Following a whole new look and feel across 688 pages.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • What went into the newest edition of trend following
  • Performance
  • Survivorship bias
  • Efficient market theory
  • Volatility
Direct download: 546.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Mark Weatherford is an American cyber security professional who has held extremely high positions in both the public and private sector. He was appointed the first deputy under secretary for cyber security at the US Department of Homeland Security from 2011-2013. Mark brings a wealth of experience and insight into a subject that all of us should be worried about in this day and age. He gives examples of how things are unfolding in regards to the cybersecurity and steps we can take to try and mitigate risk.

The basic infrastructure of the internet is essentially the same as it was back in the 90’s. A lot of physical infrastructure hasn’t really changed for most things since they were designed, however there has been layers of technology added. Michael uses the Hoover Dam as an example of old infrastructure with new technology layered on and asks, “Is it possible for the dam’s security to be hacked?” Mark says he always works from the viewpoint that absolutely everything can be broken into.

Michael moves on to ask about Hillary Clinton’s home server and what the scandal entailed. “Puzzling” is the word that Mark uses to describe the situation. She hired a company to build an email server and essentially put it physically in her basement but managed it remotely. None of this made sense or seemed well thought out. There are plenty of things you can do to protect infrastructure and it didn’t seem that they put any of those measures in place.

Michael and Mark end on discussing the idea that intelligence is all about deception. This is one of the biggest challenges in working in cyber security — figuring out what is true and what is false.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cyber hacking
  • Hillary Clinton server scandal
  • Podesta hacking
  • Cyber security
  • “Model what you admire”
  • Partisanship in cyber security
  • Game theory
Direct download: 545.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

To celebrate my upcoming fifth edition of Trend Following (April 24, 2017)…my mega episode with Tom Basso is here again by popular demand. If you want to know the right way to think, Tom brings it. Michael plays all of Tom’s interviews back to back and throws in a bonus interview at the beginning. The bonus excerpt is a Tom Basso presentation from the early to mid 1990s.

Tom is most famously known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager’s “The New Market Wizards”. Now retired from managing client money, Tom was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998.

Throughout this 4 1/2 hour podcast Michael and Tom cover a broad range of topics including: Tom’s background and how he got into trading, speculation, emotional rushes, emotional devastation, catastrophic events, separating trading from politics, behavioral economics, advice to newcomers entering the CTA industry, location independence, time management, stoicism, black swans, and the importance of routine.

Michael and Tom also go through listener questions spanning topics including: trading regrets, money management vs. trading, tinkering with current systems, drawdowns, one-system vs. multiple systems, thoughts on Alan Watts, emotions during both losing and winning periods, exit strategies, practice trading vs. live trading, money management, risk control, how to handle skeptics, serenity, John W. Henry, coin flip entry method, percent betting, comfort with uncertainty, initial capital at risk vs. unrealized gains, and fighting against your gut reaction. This podcast includes a wealth of knowledge worth listening to over and over again.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Speculation
  • Fighting against emotions
  • Catastrophic events
  • Separating trading from politics
  • Advice to newcomers entering the CTA industry
  • Time Management
  • The importance of routine
  • Money management vs. Trading
Direct download: 544.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Cass R. Sunstein is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School. He is also founder and director of the Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy and is the most referenced law professor in the United States. From 2009 to 2012 he served under the Obama administration as Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Cass is the author of “#Republic: Divided Democracy in the Age of Social Media.”

This past Presidential election created a huge rift within parties, largely propelled by social media and even search engine interference. GOOGLE has the ability to filter your searching, pushing things that are suitable to your interests. They are walking a fine line between giving you an easier searching experience and putting you in an echo chamber and shaping how you think. Cass is a big fan of Facebook and Twitter when people are balanced with it. He uses the analogy of cars, “They are great because they get people from point A to point B, however, they do create negatives such as air pollution.” The same can be said for social media.

The founding fathers of the United States wanted a government that gave the opportunity for exposure to the uncomfortable and to have a forum where both sides could interact and hear each other. Madison and Hamilton were told that to have a self governing system it needs to be little and not diverse, but they thought that the opposite needed to happen: A self governing system needs to be large and diverse. If not, the government would end up as a echo chamber. We are now living in what Cass describes as “Hamilton’s nightmare.” Although government is diverse, people are not listening and learning from one another.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Echo chambers
  • Limiting people’s horizons
  • Hamilton’s nightmare
  • The daily me
  • Censorship
  • Bernie Sanders followers
  • Donald Trump followers
Direct download: 543.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael has had some of the brightest psych minds on his podcast. Today he pulls together the great psych minds in trading into one podcast. Those interviews include: Brett Steenbarger, Jason Williams, Van Tharp, Daniel Crosby, and Meir Statman.

Brett Steenbarger is a Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry at New York State University, and author of The Daily Trading Coach, The Psychology of Trading, and Enhancing Trader Performance. His newest work is Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.

Jason Williams is author of The Mental Edge in Trading. Jason received his psychiatry degree at John Hopkins. His father is famed trader Larry Williams.

Van Tharp runs the Van Tharp Institute and is author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. His new book is called Trading Beyond the Matrix. He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizard’s: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology.

Daniel Crosby is author of The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the Secret to Investing Success, and co-author of the New York Times bestseller Personal Benchmark: Integrating Behavioral Finance and Investment Management. His background is in behavioral psychology and he sees the markets as a great backdrop to view human behavior in a real world setting. He is also founder of Nocturne Capital.

Meir Statman is a professor of finance at Santa Clara University and a behavioral finance expert. His acclaimed book is titled What Investors Really Want.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Envy and happiness
  • Fear of losing vs Fear of missing out
  • Mental accounting
  • Expert discretion
  • Efficient market theory
  • Human ego
  • Warren Buffett and his trading strategy
  • Passive investing
  • Sigmund Freud’s impact on trading
  • Standard deviation as a proxy for risk
  • Matching “the benchmark”
  • Systems theory
  • Money management vs. Position sizing
  • Ed Seykota’s trading and psychology strategies
  • Tom Basso’s trading and psychology strategies
  • Yoga
  • Training your brain how to think
Direct download: 542.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

My guest today is Vanessa Van Edwards, author of Captivate. Vanessa jokes that she is a recovering awkward person and learned in college that she could apply systems thinking to people skills. Once she started making formulas around communicating with others, she found there was more people like her.

“Treat others how you would want to be treated” is the golden rule. However, that rule should be changed to, “Treat others how they would want to be treated.” We think we know how others feel but we actually have very different ways of viewing the world and how we respond. Most are far better at intuition and snap judgment if they let their bodies do the work. Vanessa gives examples of our bodies sensing intuitively that something is wrong, exciting, etc. Our heart starts to pound, our palms start to sweat, and you may start blushing when your nervous. Your body also sweats differently when you are nervous or fearful rather than sweating from a workout.

What does it mean to “Work a room?” Being a social butterfly at events meant nothing to her because she was not the most outgoing person to begin with. She ended up engaging in countless meaningless conversations that went nowhere. This prompted her to do a study on what it actually meant to work a room and what the best people do to connect and network. She found most make their first impression before they even open their mouth and that we can spark dopamine with good conversation. How do you leave typical social conversation scripts (i.e. “What do you do?” “How are you doing?” “Where are you from?”) and have meaningful talks? This is how she came up with the idea of “conversational sparks.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bringing the unconscious to the conscious
  • Confidence and lack of confidence
  • Introverts, extroverts and ambiverts
  • First impressions
  • Conversational spark
  • What makes a great presentation
Direct download: 541.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00am EDT

Michael was recently interviewed by the CFA Society of Switzerland. Michael goes through the Q&A’s of his interview. Here are some of the questions:

  • When did you start trend following?
  • What do you say to trend following skeptics?
  • Do the experts you have talked to in economics, trading and psychology share any characteristics or qualities that may have contributed to their success?
  • Do many of your podcast guests, as well as yourself, have any habits that readers can emulate?
  • What are some of the books that have influenced you the most over the years?
  • What is the best advice you have ever received?

Michael finishes playing an excerpt from another interview he recently did with Bloomberg about the Turtles.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Getting what you want out of markets
  • Trend following skeptics
  • The Turtles
  • Turtle Trading 101
Direct download: 540.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Susan Peirce Thompson is author of “Bright Line Eating.” This is a podcast all about “aha” moments. Most have no understanding of how their bodies take in, and absorb food. Susan’s BHAG (big hairy audacious goal) is to make sure that all those who want to put forth the effort of losing weight and keeping it off have a road map.

Susan had trouble losing weight starting at age 12. She found early on that the only thing that worked for her was using drugs, specifically crystal meth. During her 20’s she was able to get off the hard drugs, but then became addicted to nicotine, sex, flour, and sugar. The turning point for her was when she decided to do a bikini body 12 week challenge with her husband. They were suppose to work out 6 days a week and eat 6 times a day. Her husband did great on the program, Susan did not. She wasn’t able to keep with the eating schedule.

She ended up running into an old friend that told her about a different way of eating. Her friend gave her the cliff notes version of a no flour or sugar diet—combined with weighing your food. Susan ended up quitting the bikini challenge and started down this new path of eating. She began losing weight instantly. This lead to her going back and reverse engineering why the program worked. She started Bright line eating in 2014 and started doing a scientific study on the results of the participants.

80% of food sold in the super market has added sugar. 60% of one year olds are fed sugar every day. Susan explains why it is so hard to have the brain let go of the need for sugar. The dopamine release in sugar is the same type of dopamine release that occurs when using drugs or having sex. Doughnuts and pornography give a dopamine release that is larger than the body is trained for. What happens over time is your need for stimulation rises. There is a need to keep it sustained.

What is the solution? You need to automate your eating just like brushing your teeth is automated. There is no impulse control, just automatic. There needs to be no choosing involved. 80% execution of this program is so much harder than going 100% all in. It’s a system.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • BHAG
  • Sugar is an addiction
  • How to handle withdrawal from sugar
  • Drinking calories vs. eating calories
  • The radish study
  • Willpower is a finite resource
  • Regulating task performance
Direct download: 539.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

The vast majority of the investing population only know their own country’s stock index inside their portfolio. Top investors know much more than that. They think about gold, palladium, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, silver, copper, bonds, wheat, etc. Most would never think of trading these markets, however these markets are part of the trend following world. Any everyone can trade any market through a handful of different financial instruments such as ETF’s, LEAPS, and futures. The fundamentals of these markets are irrelevant for profit. The only information needed to trade any market for profit is price. This type of thinking opens markets up to anyone and everyone willing to play the game and take advantage of the global opportunity trend following provides.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price action
  • Momentum
  • Macro hedge fund
  • Trade everything
  • Ignoring the fundamentals
Direct download: 538.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Isaac Lidsky graduated from Harvard with a degree in mathematics and computer science, was a successful practicing attorney and became the only blind person to have clerked at the U.S. Supreme Court. His story is one of overcoming a rough obstacle. Isaac’s book, “Eyes Wide Open,” is about making the choice to take control of the reality you create for yourself. To choose in every moment who you want to be and how you want to live your life. Holding yourself accountable is the starting point.

Sight is a great case study for showing how we create the lives we live. What you physically see isn’t necessarily an accurate depiction of reality. Isaac had been living in fear of his blindness until he went to see a low vision rehabilitation specialist and had an “aha” moment. She asked about his using a cane to get around even though he could still see slightly. It made him realize that even though he was rapidly losing his sight, all he had was right now. He was subjecting himself to succumbing to a fear that was down the road. He was able to choose to live a different way.

We misunderstand luck as humans. People have a tendency to believe that we can isolate one moment and perceive what our lives would look like if we made that one change. It is a waste of energy to get caught up in thinking of the “what ifs.” So many fixate on a static decision that is unchangeable. You can move on from a decision. Looking at other situations and feeling envy of what they have is another swift way to get nowhere. Nothing is simple, even though another persons story may seem simple or that they got where they are based on one decision. Things are usually much more complicated than that.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

    Living in the “now”
    Heightened senses
    Luck and skill
    Fear we create
    Entrepreneurship

Direct download: 537.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Howard Marks is a billionaire value investor with four decades of success. Although a value investor, his thought process mirrors trend following in many aspects. Michael plays an excerpt from Howard covering his thoughts on price, the lack of value in forecasting, efficient markets, surviving market randomness, and high yield bonds. Trend following and value investing may be two different worlds, however, there is a lot of overlap in how Howard trades and how trend followers trade.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price action
  • Forecasting
  • Value investing
  • How to think about investing
  • Black swans
Direct download: 536.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

This is Brad Rotter’s 3rd appearance on the show. He is well known in financial circles as being the first investor with Richard Dennis. As a venture capitalist, Brad has helped launch numerous new enterprises. Our conversation today takes you in the mind of how a venture capitalist thinks and describes how he views new opportunity, particularly his newest investment: desalinization of water.

What is your process? How do you explain venture capitalism? Brad grew up on a farm in Iowa and became interested in futures contracts. This made him interested in investing in the future and he quickly began to see things a little differently than the “normal” world. Brad made his first hedge fund investment in 1982. At that time hedge funds were a very inefficient market. He would look at managers that had a special niche, grasp what they were doing, and invest.

Brad looks for long term trends when he invests in ideas and companies. Technology brought him to California. His current venture is providing fresh water across the world. The one crisis facing humanity that has a solution is fresh water and it is now an invisible water emergency. Brad says, “We don’t really have a water problem, we have a salt problem.” Brad goes in depth describing the processes of desalination and the infrastructure, or rather the mobile infrastructure involved.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Venture capitalism
  • Turtles
  • Efficient market theory
  • Mobile infrastructure
  • Desalination
Direct download: 535.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Black swans arrive as a surprise. Rare stuff happens. Surprises walk up and punch you in the gut. They smack you upside the head. There is no exact preparation for the timing of a black swan, but you can position yourself. Michael plays an excerpt from Nassim Taleb explaining black swans. Taleb is of course responsible for popularizing the term.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Knowledge is therapy
  • Black swans
  • Uncertainty
  • Probability
  • Global warning
Direct download: 534.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 533: Donald Hoffman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Donald Hoffman is a cognitive scientist at UC Irvine. He studies how our visual perception, guided by millions of years of natural selection, authors every aspect of our everyday reality. His research is about uncovering the underlying secrets of human perception. Donald has discovered clues that point to our subjective nature of reality. According to Donald, we actively create everything we see. Donald started to learn how to program at a very early age. This is what got him thinking: Are we just machines, or actual humans?

Donald began to be bothered by the reality that we might not be seeing what our eyes are seeing. Do we see reality as it really is? Almost all of us have a belief that we see the world as it is. Michael and Donald go in depth about certain illusions and truths that may be hidden from the main public. Illusions are everywhere when you start looking. Evolution shaped us with certain perceptions and interfaces that we, as humans, evolved to keep us alive. Whether or not those perceptions are real or fake is irrelevant. As long as they keep us feeling happy and alive, that is all that matters. Natural selection has also led us to the reality we see. The only thing that matters in natural selection is fitness. Fitness according to natural selection is not based on physical fitness but rather if you are able to reproduce. That is the only criteria.

Michael and Donald end the podcast posing the question: Do humans have the capacity to even understand what the true reality is?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Are we robot or human?
  • Evolution
  • Reality vs. Perception of reality
  • Natural selection
  • Pushing theories to their limits
Direct download: 533.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael excerpts a presentation from Cliff Asness. Asness is rigidly focused on the systematic side of the trading equation. Don’t let the idea of something being systematic scare you into thinking complication alone. Systematic means you follow rules. Asness has models, rules, and mechanisms he automates and executes. That’s smart. We can learn from that thinking.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Black box investing
  • Quantitative trading
  • Quants vs High frequency trading
  • Value based trading
  • Momentum trading
  • The dirty words of finance
  • Statistical arbitrage
  • Quant macro
  • Managed futures
Direct download: 532.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 531: Mark Rzepczynski Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mark Rzepczynski is the CEO of AMPHI Capital Management and has a deep knowledge of trading, especially trend following trading.

Simplicity beats complexity every time. Unfortunately, people crave more complex. With trend following, traders keep it simple. They just want to get the direction of the trade right. Trend followers don’t care about what the price will be or how far it will go, they just go back to the basics and see what way the trend is going, up or down.

The ability to simply follow the math has always been undervalued. Risk management is about the math of selling losers and hanging onto winners. It isn’t hard math to do, but this is what separates successful managers from losing ones. Successful managers build a portfolio, follow the trends and execute trades properly.

Harry Markowitz said, “If I would have created CAPM around semi variance no one would have understood the math and I would not have won the Nobel Prize.” Mark breaks this quote from Markowitz apart. He dives into good volatility vs bad volatility.

Fake news has been the premise of the 2017 presidential election. But is fake news new? Every time you see a government announcement come out saying they are revising their data, that is fake news. GDP numbers, unemployment, etc. are examples of fake our outdated news that cannot be depended on. We know that prices move and fluctuate from day to day, but trend followers can do things to smooth the uncertainty and prepare with a toolbox of rules such as staying diversified and having crisis alpha.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Controlling volatility
  • Style diversification
  • Long term vs. Short term managers
  • Simplicity beats complexity
  • Quant trading
Direct download: 531.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 530: Against the Gods with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Many take risk without thinking. They do not quantify risk. One of Michael’s first steps into the risk indoctrination came in the 1990’s through a book, “Against the Gods: A Remarkable Story of Risk.” Michael plays an excerpt from the author Peter Bernstein.

There is no perfect algorithm for risk, only guesses. Everyone has a limited amount of capital. Risk is putting your money down and knowing that you can lose it. In the trend following world, risk is why traders keep it small. How much can you afford to lose? This is the only thing you can control in the markets. Predictions should be a blinking red light for anyone listening.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Stop loss
  • Know your risk
  • How much are you willing to bet?
  • Coarse risk management
  • Long Term Capital Management
  • Too much dependence on math
Direct download: 530.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 529: Annie Duke Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Annie Duke is on the podcast for the second time. She is a poker player, author, decision making expert, and cognitive scientist. Her understanding of how luck, skill and uncertainty all play a role in life is fascinating.

Donald Trump has made some unusual cabinet choices, especially for getting elected by such a small margin. Annie breaks down her perspective on why Trump chose the way he did. One of the hardest people to play against is someone playing aggressively across the board, such as Trump. She relates Trump’s aggressive political playing to poker, giving insights as to how Trump opposition might be playing their cards to beat him.

Annie moves on to decipher luck and skill in decision making and outcomes. Black and white thinking can be harmful. Decisions that don’t go your way are not always the wrong choice. You may have taken the right direction, the cards just didn’t fall in your favor. You need to be able to move on and know that another chance is around the corner. Fixating on decisions that were wrong can easily start to snowball and make things personal. The key is to learn to move on from one hand dealt to another quickly because life won’t pause for anyone. Take the time to reflect later, but don’t get caught up in the moment and dwell on what mistakes you may, or may not have made.

The world of poker is a male driven sport. Focusing her purpose on winning the game rather than getting people at the table to like her enabled her to get over discrimination and actually use it to her advantage. Not caring about the approval of peers instantly gives the person being discriminated against the upper hand. Once you view something as a challenge rather than adversity you become a stronger person and begin creating a positive narrative for that situation and your life. Shying away from adversity is a way of giving up on yourself and falling victim. Facing adversity as a challenge provides self power and confidence.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Quality of outcome vs Quality of your decision
  • Game theory and math
  • Applying poker decision making to life decision making
  • Cognitive science
Direct download: 529.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 528: The Mega Eclectic Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Five guests are featured on today’s mega episode, including: Jason Fried, Andy Puddicombe, Steven Kotler, Walter Williams and Jack Horner. These men have all found great success in their fields of study. As different as they all may be, there is a thread that can be found connecting them all.

Jason Fried is the founder and CEO of Basecamp (formerly 37Signals). Fried is also the co-author of the book Rework.

Andy Puddicombe is the founder of Headspace, an award-winning digital health platform that provides guided meditation sessions. Puddicombe is also a former Buddhist monk with a degree in Circus Arts.

Steven Kotler is an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His newest book is The Rise of Superman.

Walter Williams an American economist, commentator, and academic. He is the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University, as well as a syndicated columnist and author known for his libertarian views.

Jack Horner is a world renowned paleontologist. He was the technical advisor for all of the “Jurassic Park” films.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Zen and the moment of now
  • Building an audience
  • Meditation
  • Daily practice
  • Flow
  • Minimum wage
  • Morality of markets
  • The welfare state
  • Bailouts
  • The process of learning
  • Scavenger v. predator
Direct download: 528.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 527: Jennifer Mueller Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jennifer Mueller, author of “Creative Change: Why We Resist it, How We Can Embrace it,” is my guest today. Many crave the life of creativity but choose not to live it. Jennifer explains creative change in a way that newbies and professionals can understand.

“What was the initial aha moment that made you go down this particular path?” People have this “love/hate” relationship with creativity. During a study, Jennifer found that more people relate the word “vomit” to creativity than they relate words like; love, peace, and happiness. This made her wonder, “What is it about creativity that makes people feel that way?”

More and more customers want a creative experience. When people think of a creative experience they think of: something beautiful, not mass marketed, not necessarily fashionable, something that took time and effort to put together, feels authentic and makes them happy. Corporations do think of creativity in the same way, however they end up moving in the opposite direction. They often get sucked into feeling like their product needs to be for everyone, mass marketed, fashionable, etc. so they can sell the product.

Steve Jobs created “corporate creativity.” He had a way of connecting with people from how he dressed to connecting through his products. When people engage in a creative effort they feel like their lives are meaningful and are happier. Jobs captured that. Giving people a surprise is one of the top things people attach to creativity, along with beauty. He was able to wrap all these things up in one presentation.

“We want more creative change. We know there has to be a disruption and we know we can’t predict the future. The heart of your work is to get people to understand, ‘This won’t make you feel comfortable to adopt creative change…it will not be a linear process.’” When you go through the process of learning something, sometimes that process can feel horrible. The good news is though, when you figure this out yourself, it can feel pretty empowering. When we generate creative ideas, we are more accepting of flexibility. Change is a psychological problem. It is not just emotional or rational, it is both.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Jeff Basos vs. Steve Jobs
  • Integrating creativity with regimen
  • Rational uncertainty
  • Problems with risk assessments
  • 2001 vs. Star Wars
  • Disrupting the system
  • Millennial generation
Direct download: 527.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 526: I Will Survive with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett are two men that not only have survived over time but made a boat load of money in the process. They are not trend following traders, yet they are very keen about risk management, position sizing and other core concepts that lead to success. Munger and Buffet, however, perform a type of strategy that you (as the average investor) cannot. They trade massive derivative positions. Trades that only happen when you’re at their level and can coordinate with the like Goldman Sachs. Buffett held the power in 2008. He had the money and called the shots. Across the media you can find hypocrisy in his statements, but the ultimate measuring stick is money. Has he made money? Has he made it generally in an ethically way? Absolutely.

This podcast and these excerpts aren’t about strategy. It is about getting into the mindset of Munger and Buffett. Even though we cannot replicate their strategy, we can take their philosophical views and apply them to our money making strategies.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Psychological denial
  • Incentive cause bias
  • Pavlovian phenomenon
  • Negative psychological tendencies
  • Efficient market theory
  • Contrast phenomena
  • Envy bias
  • What distorts judgment
  • Tupperware parties
  • Watch one, do one, teach one
  • Compounding
  • Avoiding credit cards at all costs
Direct download: 526.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 525: Martin Bergin Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Martin “Marty” Bergin is the President and owner of DUNN Capital Management. Bergin began working with DUNN in 1997. He took over the day-to-day operations of the firm in 2007 and became owner in 2015 (Bill Dunn remains Chairman). DUNN has an outstanding track record that spans over 40 years. Bergin first met Dunn while he was tasked with doing an audit of the company over the course of 7 years. Once the audit was over, Dunn offered him a job.

There has been ongoing dialogue since 2008 that trend following has been a negative. DUNN Capital’s track record does not reflect that. They have been doing things different. They are 100% systematic. They do not have an army of traders staring at screens. All emotion has been removed from the equation and traders use algorithms that have already been put in place to make day to day trades. They take positions strictly based on what the system tells them to do.

Managed futures (read: trend following) was the only strategy that stood out during the 2008 crisis. Historically DUNN has been able to outperform the S&P over their 40 year track record. I argue that when looking at their performance side by side with S&P performance, there could be a whole class taught on the chart. Bergin says that with all the changes in America (mostly political) there is no telling if the new policy’s that are said to come will crash the S&P or double the S&P. He has no way to predict the future and neither does anyone else.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Management fees
  • How the financial industry works
  • Systematic trend following strategies
  • Trading off of price data
  • The advantages of diversity in your portfolio
Direct download: 525.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 524: Algo Fear with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

“I could be wrong I could be right. It’s a flip of the coin.” What is done after the coin is flipped is what counts. But people want a prediction. They want someone to tell them where a stock will go next, or where the S&P will top off at. The last question you want to be asking yourself when trading is where a price will be going next. It is just “you know what in the wind.”

Put aside reading charts and predictive technical analysis, life is naturally a wild wave that goes up and down. This will not change. Price momentum has always existed and it will always exist. You just need to have a strong strategy that gets you on the trend and gets you off the trend with the proper risk and money management in place. Michael pulls in quotes from Larry Tentarelli and David Harding.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Mental Masturbation
  • Price action and no prediction
  • Systematic trend following
  • Robo trading
Direct download: 524.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 523: Tom Asacker Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

This is Tom Asacker’s second appearance on the show. His newest work is “I Am Keats: Escape Your Mind and Free Your Self.” The title of his book spawned from a conversation he had with a friend whose 20-something year old son was still living at home. Tom told his friend “Too bad we can’t wipe his memory clean and start over.” All actions come from your memory so Tom figured if he could wipe the 20 something’s memory clean, he could rewrite his life. After that conversation Tom had a sequence of serendipitous moments that lead to the writing of “I Am Keats.” Tom gives a unique perspective on the human condition that will no doubt give all listening something to think about.

Tom’s work allows people to think of themselves as being in a “mental cell,” to think clearly outside that, and learn how to make better decisions. There is a powerful misconception among people that they have a predisposed identity. Asacker says, “Who you are is what you create.” Just because you choose to go one direction, doesn’t mean that you won’t have some serendipitous event that changes your course of life. Just enjoy your journey, whether it is a journey full of struggle or journey full of success. The process is the goal, not where you think you are going to get to in the future.

There is no linear path to success and happiness. This illusion of stability causes people to wake up when they are 40 or 50 and think to themselves, “What happened with my life?” Life is not predetermined. It unfolds as you live it. What you do in the past sets you up for the future. How do you compete with the Steve Jobs of the world by staying in your office cube? Stop hedging your bets, and jump off the ledge.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Taking a leap of faith
  • Traveling for the sake of traveling
  • Serendipity
  • Hypocrisy on the Internet
  • What are your “beliefs”
  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Being driven by inspiration vs. data
  • Bring the engineers in after you have the design
Direct download: 523.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 522: What Did You Learn in School Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael uses an article from the “Financial Times” titled “A Warning for the Losers of the Liberal Elite” by Wolfgang Münchau. Münchau makes some valid points as well as weaving in made up assumptions that absolutely don’t exist in reality.

Everyday is a fight. You must wake up energized, and figure the game out. There is no permission needed. The successful do not ask for permission. The successful do not ask for “acceptable distribution of income.” Get a plan for yourself and execute it without making excuses such as “The economy is in a slump” or “But… Donald Trump is our next president.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Distribution of income
  • Asking for permission
  • President Donald Trump
Direct download: 522.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 521: John Jantsch Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

John Jantsch is an author, speaker and marketing consultant. His company is Duct Tape Marketing and he has been around 29 years offering insights. His new book is “SEO For Growth.” John seeks out knowledge for his own personal growth, which then spills over into helping out clients.

One of the major ways to build your brand is producing new, information rich and constant content. Michael and John talk about Twitter and blogging strategies that help tap into your marketplace so you reach your optimal audience. Creating constant content won’t build you or your brand up very much if nobody reads it.

Moving on to SEO, John says “Page one results [on Google search] is your new business card.” When you hear a friend talking about someone or if you are looking for products and services, the first thing you do is search their name or brand. Having an active Twitter and LinkedIn account is a good start to getting your name out there. However, if you take it a step further and write an article for a news source in your field it could give you a much larger leg up on your competition. There was a recent study done with 2,200 buyers. 80% of these buyers made their decisions to buy before ever even contacting the company. They are turning to search engines and their social networks. If you do not show up in their initial research, then you do not exist.

Google’s original objective (when it was founded) and its current objective is for people to get the most relevant results related to their search. Over the years Google has gotten better at refining their objective by creating new code and stopping fraud. John dives into ways to help out your SEO with Google. Essentially it all boils down to creating great content. “Build it and they will come” rings true more now than ever before.

What are some of the things people are doing right now that are on the Google “do not fly list?” The biggest mistake made is paying people to get results by bogus links. It may work for a month or two but after awhile you will probably get blacklisted from Google’s search engine. This is the most obvious of the “do not do’s” with SEO. Content creation will help the most with SEO, and getting people to stay interested in what you are doing. Ebooks, podcasts, books, articles, etc. all count as content. Responding quickly to client emails or calls is also a great key to gaining strong followers. Expectations have gotten so low on the customer service front that something as simple as returning an email in a timely fashion may be the differentiating point between you and the competitor.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Benefits of podcasting
  • Evolution of podcasting and blogging
  • SEO
  • Behind the scene of the Google algorithm
  • Seven stages to your hourglass
  • Critics and criticism
  • Voice activated searching
Direct download: 521.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 520: Take the Lid Off with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael starts the podcast quoting from a recent blog post of Seth Godin’s called “The Candy Diet.” Most people want a Guru or someone to spoon feed them something, anything. They want to be told what will happen in the future. They are on the “candy diet” that Seth Godin speaks to. People want to be baited with quick and easy. Michael reads from the obituary of the late Jay Forrester next. Forrester made the point in one of his classes that not a single one of his engineering students had ever taken the back of the toilet seat off to see how it worked. Looping back to Godin’s candy diet piece: There isn’t enough curiosity out there.

Michael quotes Jameis Winston, quarterback for the Buccaneers next. Jameis was asked if the Buccaneers were playoff contenders. Jameis’ response was that he was just trying to be 1-0 each week. He was living in the “moment of now.” He wasn’t worrying about week five while he was playing a game in week one. This thought process goes for everything in life, especially trading. You need a systematic approach that keeps you in the moment of right now. Otherwise you become bait.

Jared Kushner ran the Trump campaign. He tried to run the Trump campaign on the cheap. He would see what worked, and if it didn’t work then they would cut their losses quickly. If it worked, they would keep that strategy going and scale it up.

Michael finishes up the podcast talking about the new version of his Trend Following book. He points out some edits the publisher wanted him to make to move toward a more politically correct book. Michael brings in a term coined by Nassim Taleb, “intellectual yet idiot,” to explain his stance on making his book more politically correct.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Political correctness
  • Curiosity
  • Living in the moment of now
Direct download: 520.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 519: Another Mega Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Episode

Michael releases another mega episode with three trend following traders: Chris Cruden, Salem Abraham and Brian Proctor.

Chris Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management.

Salem Abraham is the President of Abraham Trading Company with a 27-year track record (with much trend following success). Over the years, Abraham has been kind enough to offer Covel fantastic insights. Abraham also appeared in Covel’s film, Broke, and is the last chapter of The Complete TurtleTrader.

Brian Proctor is an original TurtleTrader trained by Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt and today is a Managing Director at EMC Capital. He began his futures career in 1982, with experience at both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. Proctor was a participant in the renowned Turtle Program, and managed all trading operations at C&D Commodities through 2000.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price action
  • Trading only currency
  • Benchmark and time period selection
  • Don’t force the system
  • If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it
  • Markets teach humility
  • Swiss Franc and Crude Oil
  • Asian economics
  • Location independence
  • The Turtle program
  • Diversification
  • Black Swans
Direct download: 519.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 518: Evan Carmichael Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael interviews Evan Carmichael, author of Your One Word: The Powerful Secret to Creating a Business and Life That Matter: "In this bold and empowering guide, entrepreneur and social media sensation Evan Carmichael shares the secret to turbo-charging your path to success on your own terms. With thought-provoking questions and inspiring, instructive examples, Your One Word will help you nail down your personal mottos – the word that captures your purpose and passion. With this operating philosophy in hand, you will then learn how to leverage this powerful tool to create the business and future of your dreams."

The real story? Two guys talking about the psychology behind successful entrepreneurship.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Entrepreneurship
  • Your one word
Direct download: 518.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 517: Thinking Tools with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

One of Michael’s favorite things to do is intellectually kick people in the ass. People have stopped thinking. We have social media overload and virtual reality is taking over reality.

Michael brings a clip from Daniel Dennett on the podcast. Daniel specializes in providing people with different tools for thinking. Thinking is not genetic, it is learned. “Do tools evolve and make us smarter? Or do we evolve to become smart enough to make tools?” The answer is: Yes. It goes both ways. Daniel uses a chimpanzee example to explain the difference between our minds and the minds of any other animal.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Flynn effect
  • Surely alarm
  • Genetic evolution
  • Shaping neurons in the brain
  • Intrinsic value
Direct download: 517.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 516: Wesley Gray Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael and Wesley Gray cover wide territory today across the subject of momentum in the markets. Wesley Gray served as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps and taught as a finance professor at Drexel University. He earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago and graduated magna cum laude with a BS from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Wesley is founder of Alpha Architect, an asset management that delivers affordable active exposures for tax-sensitive investors. He has published four books including: “Quantitative Value,” “DIY Financial Advisor,” “Embedded” and his newest book “Quantitative Momentum.” He is a contributor to the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and the CFA Institute.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Efficient Market Hypothesis
  • Cross-sectional momentum
  • Time-series momentum
  • Trend following
  • Behavior
  • Career risk
Direct download: 516.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 515: Epic Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel

Episode 515 is another “Mega episode.” It is a culmination of interviews comprised of four of the most successful trend following traders alive today: Ewan Kirk, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Martin Lueck and Christopher Cruden.

Ewan Kirk is the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique.

Martin Lueck holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University and currently is the Research Director and President of Aspect Capital. Lueck was originally with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded with Michael Adam and David Harding.

Christopher Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL). He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Importance of consistent marginal improvements
  • Understanding a client’s drivers
  • Benefits the economy, society, and the world
  • Randomness is everything
  • Discretionary traders
  • Losses are statistically inevitable
  • Holy grails in trading
  • Behavioral biases
  • Volatility as measuring risk
  • Exploiting vs. Exploring
  • Tail risk premia vs. Pure alpha
  • Behavioral economics
  • Systematic trading
  • Price action
  • Benchmark selection
  • Time period selection
  • Markets teach humility
        Time management
Direct download: 515.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 514: Epic Behavioral Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael has put together a compilation of past appearances aggregated into a four hour episode. Guests today include: Daniel Kahneman, Laurie Santos, Steven Kotler, Anders Ericsson, Philip Tetlock, and Colin Camerer.

Daniel Kahneman has been called the most important psychologist alive today. He is the 2002 winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, and is the guy behind the theories of behavioral economics and behavioral finance.

Laurie Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans.

Kotler is an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, etc.

Anders Ericsson is a Swedish psychologist and Conradi Eminent Scholar and Professor of Psychology at Florida State University. He is internationally recognized as a researcher in the psychological nature of expertise and human performance. His new book is “Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise.”

Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” is about probabilistic thinking defined.

Colin Camerer is an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is the interface between cognitive psychology and economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Remembering self vs. Experiencing self
  • How the measures of happiness are being implemented into public policy
  • How failure to accept one’s losses can lead to risk-taking in trading
  • Crowd behavior relating economic bubbles
  • Why capitalism is largely driven by optimism
  • Behavioral economics affecting the trading world
  • Monkeys and humans
  • The monkey economy
  • The endowment effect
  • G.I. Joe fallacy
  • Discipline and practice
  • Solo and group practice
  • Flow state
  • Social motivation
  • The late birthday rule
  • 10,000 hours of practice
  • Nature vs. nurture
  • Brain plasticity
  • What are superforecasters?
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Looking at data
  • The basis of decision making
Direct download: 514.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 513: Ayn Rand Returns with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Phil Donahue and Ayn Rand are on the podcast today, but one of them is of course dead. Rand is best known for her two best selling novels, “The Fountainhead” and “Atlas Shrugged.” Michael plays two clips of Donahue interviewing Rand. Rand is controversial, but her thinking is accurate and clear. She breaks down altruism, government regulation, free market, monopoly, God, feminism, terrorism, and many more topics. You may not agree with her on all points, but there is inspiration to be taken away from her passion and to-the-point thinking.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Altruism
  • Government regulation
  • Acting on faith
  • Living by emotion, not reason
  • Women’s rights
  • Religion
  • Monopoly
  • Spending money on the un-gifted minds rather than the gifted
  • A “me” society
  • Definition of a dictator
Direct download: 513.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 512: Tim Price Interview #3 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Tim Price has worked in capital markets for over 25 years across three management firms. His book is “Investing Through the Looking Glass.”

Tim thought Brexit would be the biggest thing in politics during his lifetime, until Trump. People love a narrative and those behind Brexit and Trump produced a great one. People were so fed up with the establishment that even though they may not have agreed with the idea of Brexit or the agenda of Trump, they wanted a vote against the establishment.

“What was the driving force behind wanting to write your first book?” The seminal event for him was the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which led him to think: “How on earth did we end up in this mess?” Interest rates are still at zero eight years post crisis and central banks are still printing money out of nowhere. He has spent the years since 2008 researching what the causes were and essentially the “Who done it” in the bailouts. Michael and Tim talk about the economy and the avalanche that is building on the horizon. Michael asks, “How did we get to the point where so many of us have just accepted that there are these show figures making decisions for us that we have no choice in?”

In Tim’s work he takes people on a detailed journey through the banking system, bailouts, bond market, stock market and the solutions. “What other options in trading exist after you have value, momentum and gold?” Michael and Tim discuss why there aren’t really any other options beyond those.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trusting central planners
  • Going against the establishment
  • Banking system
  • Owning gold
  • Lehman Brothers collapse
  • 2008 bubble
  • The Brexit and Trump narrative
Direct download: 512.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 511: A Zen Money Perspective with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Building off of last weeks podcast Michael brings another dead guest on his show, Alan Watts. Watts is responsible for introducing eastern traditions to the West, i.e. Buddhism. He has been featured many times on the podcast. Is money the root of all evil? Is money the goal? Why are making mistakes so crucial to your life? Does money equal wealth? These are all topics that are discussed and answered on the podcast.

Before Michael plays a clip from Watts, he shares a story from his recent trip to California. Michael had lunch next to a table that was the quintessential example of money, wealth, and the stereotypes that live in Los Angeles. His opening story is food for thought as you listen to Watts and his wisdom.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Liberty
  • Relationship between guilt and gold
  • You don’t learn if you don’t make mistakes
  • Psychological attitude toward money
  • Money is just bookkeeping
  • National debt
  • Money as the circulation of information
  • Changing the psychological attitude toward money
  • The cost of paying income tax
  • Psychologically poor
Direct download: 511.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 510: Milton Friedman Returns with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Milton Friedman is one of Michael’s favorite dead guests to bring on the podcast. He takes complicated subjects and breaks them down clearly. Today, Michael curates two interviews between Phil Donahue and Milton Friedman. These interviews were recorded back in the 1980’s, but many of the points made are more relevant today than ever. Milton foreshadows Uber, talks about the deep state (without mentioning the deep state), brings up airline service and monopoly. His solutions to problems in government 35 years ago were to cut government spending, hold monetary growth back and cut regulations. The same solutions to government are at the forefront of American politics today.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Government spending
  • Liberty in trading
  • Government regulation
  • Unknowingly supporting private interests
  • How to prevent monopoly
  • Legalizing drugs
  • Prohibition
Direct download: 510.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 509: Van Tharp Interview #3 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Van Tharp is on today’s podcast. It is his third appearance on the show. Van runs the Van Tharp Institute and is the author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. His new book is called Trading Beyond the Matrix. He was also featured in Jack Schwager’s Market Wizard’s: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology, is a certified Master Practitioner of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP), a Certified Master Time Line Therapist, a certified Modeler of NLP, and an Assistant Trainer of NLP.

Michael starts the podcast asking Van how he felt the year Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller won the Nobel Prize. Van has a long standing theory that those who win the Nobel Prize are just supporting the ideas of the status quo. It is meant to propel the majority into believing they are in the right. Trend following does nothing to support the status quo, therefore Van says that Michael and himself will not be winning the Nobel Prize anytime soon.

People looking for help constantly approach Van. Michael asks, “What is it like to observe the learning of people who come into your world?” Van goes into the steps he takes new students through when teaching them how to trade. He shares some typical biases that new traders have when starting their training. He first teaches people to understand that they need to take total responsibility for what happens to them while trading. If was easy to make money in the markets then big money would make it hard to participate in the game, but since it is not easy to make money in the markets, they make it easy to join.

Michael switches gears and asks, “When were you first exposed to the ‘how much’ question?” Van says that it was at a workshop with Ed Seykota. Seykota asked, “What is the most important factor in your trading?” Van responded, “Well, It’s you.” And Seykota said, “No, it’s how much.” It all starts with how much you are willing to lose and how much you can afford to lose. Michael moves on to ask “Are there anymore interesting things that you learned from working with Ed Seykota?” Van shares a story about Seykota and the psychology behind what makes him such a legendary trader. He moves on to share some stories about another legendary trend following trader, Tom Basso. Van shares personal stories about how he conducted his business and trading.

Discretionary trading is the next topic. Van says, “If you are a pure discretionary trader, it seems to me that it would be very difficult to implement some of the position sizing methodologies that are in your work.” A trader needs to know when something is not working anymore. You need to be aware of market changes, and subtle changes in that market that no longer works.

Michael ends the podcast asking, “Who changed your thinking in your life? Who helped to send you down this path?” Van started his business around 1982, which coincidentally was probably the low point in his life. He went to a life science church that helped him work on himself. He can’t pinpoint a specific event or person that has molded him into who he is right now, it was a collaboration of events and people.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Systems theory
  • Money management vs. Position sizing
  • Ed Seykota’s trading and psychology strategies
  • Tom Basso’s trading and psychology strategies
  • Yoga
  • Training your brain how to think
Direct download: 509.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 508: Hysteria with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

“If you are in a dead end existence and feel like you need something else, get on a plane.” Fly to a foreign country, go alone, and do not have a plan. The influx of adrenaline from getting away and exploring can break anyone out of their day to day hypnosis.

Michael plays a series of news clips starting from the beginning of the Presidential race. The various clips start off profiling Donald Trump’s campaign as a joke, and then slowly morphing into him inching his way up in the polls and taking the Presidency. Michael then reads an excerpt from “Follow Me and Die” by Cecil Curry.

Michael ends the podcast with a quote from a recent Financial Times article featuring David Harding. The excerpt explains how Harding exploits the failures in the efficient market theory. He says that the markets are a psychological game and should not based off of fundamentals. Bet your money on the price, not what is happening in politics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trump as President-elect
  • Trading off of price, not politics
  • Nazi’s in America
  • David Harding
  • Efficient market theory
Direct download: 508.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 507: Lanny Bassham Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Olympic gold medalist Lanny Bassham is on today’s podcast. After falling short in the 1972 Olympics winning the silver medal rather than gold, Lanny went home and re-applied himself. He returned to the 1976 Olympics and won the gold medal in rifle shooting.

Lanny was the kid in school that nobody wanted on their team. He was slow, short and uncoordinated. He worked hard, but he was never going to be able to compete against others that were taller, faster and more coordinated. He shares a story about being in school and one of his classmates saying that he would be the least likely person to become an Olympic gold medalist. This prompted him to go home and learn all he could about the Olympics. This began his journey in finding his place in Olympic history.

Lanny moves on to share how much practice and work he had to put in to become an elite performer. He never felt like practice was something he had to do, it was something he got to do. He loved rifle shooting not just because of the action of it, but because he was good at it. He took obstacles and turned them into opportunities.

Next, Lanny says there is a big difference between winning silver and winning gold. When you go back home and everyone asks how you did, they always ask who won the gold, not who won the silver. Lanny relates winning silver saying, “It is like going to the super bowl and losing.” Doesn’t matter that you made it there if you don’t win. He quickly realized the reason he won silver wasn’t because of his shooting capabilities, it was his mental game. He teaches people how to have a mental process and tap into it when they need it the most.

Lanny breaks performance down as a function of three mental processes: the conscious mind, subconscious, and self image. He goes into depth explaining the balance between all of these psychological functions. He says that you need to focus on your process rather than outcome. When you are 100% in control, then you will be much more mentally consistent. Outcome will always follow process. Lanny finishes up the podcast asking the question, “Do you really want it to be easy?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Creating a mental process
  • Changing your self image
  • How the top 5% think
  • Hard work in practice vs. Hard work in tournaments
  • Thinking of process not outcome
  • Valuing performance not just participation
Direct download: 507.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 506: Stepping Aside with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael brings football into the podcast today. He starts off playing a press conference clip with Tony Romo and his response to being injured and falling from his spot as the starting quarterback.

Michael moves on to Donald Trump and what government should be. There are pro’s and con’s to Trump becoming President, but the bottom line is that people voted against the current political system. 50% of Americans decided to roll the dice and see what happens.

Big picture: Your trading strategy must not be based on who the President might be. Just follow the trend.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Meritocracy
  • Donald Trump as President
  • Trading off the trend, not fundamentals
Direct download: 506.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 505: Daniel Crosby Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael welcomes Daniel Crosby, author of “The Laws of Wealth: Psychology and the Secret to Investing Success.” His background is in behavioral psychology and he sees the markets as a great backdrop to view human behavior in a real world setting.

Michael and Daniel start breaking apart the efficient market theory into two concepts: 1. You can’t beat the market, and 2. The price that you see is always right. They discuss debate in the academic world between the efficient market camp and the behavioral finance camp. Daniel says that the 2008 crash shows where the efficient market theory starts to break down. He moves into value and momentum trading.

Daniel brings in research proving that rules based approaches is 94% more successful than expert personal discretion. “Let your profits run and cut your losers short” is perhaps the biggest rule in trend following which takes great psychological discipline. Daniel says that it is an easy concept to grasp, but so hard to follow. Any investment discipline rooted in human psychology has a much better chance of working and sticking around than other strategies that don’t take human nature into account.

To make the risky choices Daniel says you need a mentor. Humans don’t do well with volatility and uncertainty. We live in the present and not in the future so a lot of people need coaching to look beyond the day to day. The hallmark of a good investor realizes that the rules do apply to them and they own the fact that they are no more gifted or special than the next person. Most investors tend to leave about 50% of their profits on the table due to bad emotional decisions.

Daniel says that everyone talks about the idea of “trouble is opportunity” but they don’t really live by it. People need to take a closer look at what “opportunity” really is. They need a rule, system or automation in place that makes them do the thing they don’t want to do. Michael and Daniel finish up the podcast talking about “benchmarks” and how they hinder investors performance and aid in making bad decisions. People who have personal benchmarks rather than index benchmarks have shown to trade more successfully.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Expert discretion
  • Efficient market theory
  • The eradication of guinea worms
  • Human ego
  • Warren Buffett and his trading strategy
  • Passive investing
  • Sigmund Freud’s impact on trading
  • Standard deviation as a proxy for risk
  • Matching “the benchmark”
Direct download: 505.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 504: Jim Rickards Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Jim Rickards. Jim was front and center during the 1998 LTCM blow-up. He was a partner and general counsel for Long Term Capital Management. Following their blowup, he was principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve. He has had a bird’s eye view of some of the most interesting events in the economy over the last 20 years.

In Jim’s latest book, “The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis,” he talks about 1998, 2008 and 2018. Jim gives these dates as examples of financial crises that happen (and will happen) every six to ten years. He relates financial panics to earthquakes. If you could stop an earthquake mid earthquake, this is similar to how we have been dealing with financial crises over the years. When bubbles are created, and then bailouts occur, government is only putting a stopper in the problem, however the problem is still there and building. The next bailout can’t come from the central banks.

Jim and Michael finish the podcast discussing cyber hacking and WWIII. Jim believes WWIII has already begun between Russia and America on a cyber warfare front. Cyber warfare has been happening between Russia and the U.S. for years. It is the worse kind of attack because you can get into major operating systems. Jim uses the operating systems of the Hoover Dam or getting into the operating system of the New York Stock Exchange as examples. If a terrorist got into the operating system of the Hoover Dam and opened up the flood gates it would wipe out hundreds of thousands of people.

Direct download: 504.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 503: John Miller Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

John Miller, author of “QBQ: The Question behind the Question”, is on today’s podcast. John’s message is all about person responsibility. His dad was the wrestling coach at Cornell University and he taught John the foundation for his way of thinking early on.

What could I have done different? How could I have done a better job? These are just a couple questions John tells people to ask themselves before they try and pass blame onto someone else. John shares a personal story of someone going above and beyond in their service. This story is referred to as “The coke story.” He shares it with every audience he speaks in front of because it is the perfect example of someone going above and beyond. John says that people need to rise above situations, swallow pride, and fix problems even if it wasn’t their mistake to fix.

Next, John shares what he did before writing books and doing speaking engagements. He was bored and depressed working behind a desk. Michael asks, “Even in a bored and depressed state, did you ever have a victim mentality in your psyche?” John shares another personal story about him shutting down an entire branch of his company (for good reason) so he could move locations and be in a more positive place. He says that he has always been proactive in how he looks at a situation. He gives a few “rule of thumb” phrases to try and stay away from: Whenever you ask “Why me”, that is falling into a victim mentality. “When” questions are typically linked to procrastination. “Who” questions seek culprits or people to pass blame onto. Ask questions that contain an “I” in there because "I" can only change me.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Staying accountable for your actions
  • Social media bullying and accountability
  • Stress is a choice
  • Asking yourself the right questions to stay accountable
  • Entitlement
Direct download: 503.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 502: Efficient Market Thinking wth Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Are markets efficient? Can you beat the market? Is the market the right price? These are questions Michael answers today. Michael brings in Benoit Mandelbrot to help explain the efficient market hypothesis and where we have all gone wrong in our thinking over the years. Next, he goes to Richard Feynman to explain the scientific method and how one goes about comparing and contrasting. Lastly, Michael lets Gerd Gigerenzer elaborate on the concept of heuristics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Scientific method
  • What is a heuristic?
  • The market price
  • What if money was no object?
Direct download: 502.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 501: Roger Housden Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Roger Housden is an author, speaker, and writing guide. He writes for “living and writing wild.” He has authored 22 books and has been featured everywhere from the New York Times to the LA Times. His latest book is titled, “Dropping the Struggle.”

Michael and Roger start the episode by breaking apart Roger’s book title, “Dropping the Struggle.” Roger looks at different areas of life where struggle doesn’t work such as the struggle for meaning or purpose of life, the struggle for love, and the struggle against change, just to name a few. Next, Roger expands on the idea of “the moment of now.” He says that the idea of “fate” does not mean that your life is predetermined. The love of ones fate, and embracing fate as your life is how you write your own story. Planning for the future has its place, but when it preoccupies current life completely, then it can be problematic.

Next, Michael and Roger talk about the always occurring “end of the world” debate going on. They use the upcoming election as an example. Once the presidential election is over, the debate will move onto something else. Life is a constant river. There will always be ups and downs. It is just the way the world works. It is how people respond to the ups and downs that define how things work out.

Love is the next topic of conversation. Roger says that there will always be imperfections with love but even those imperfections contribute to who we are as people. If you take those imperfections out, then we wouldn’t be the people that we are. It is part of the process of humility. Michael and Roger finish up discussing the differences between eastern and western cultures.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Reflective contemplation
  • The moment of now
  • The fantasy of control
  • Imperfections with love
  • Buddhist culture
  • Individuality in western culture
Direct download: 501.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 500: Charles Faulkner Special with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

My special 500th episode is a 6-hour aggregate show featuring Charles Faulkner.

Direct download: 500.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 499: Jenny Blake Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jenny Blake is author of “Pivot: The Only Move That Matters is Your Next One.” She is a former Google employee and has a perspective that everyone can learn something from, especially if you feel like you are at a plateau in life.

Michael and Jenny start the conversation off with the benefits of yoga. Jenny says that “Your body is your business.” She quickly realized that when her body was operating at 50% then her business was operating at 50%. Yoga has always been her outlet and her source of strength, flexibility, and one of her biggest accelerators of focus.

Michael asks, “How did we get to this point where everyone thinks that life goes in a straight line?” Jenny says we are all hungry for a sense of adventure, however we so often resist change. 2008 was a game changer that made many realize that anything can happen at any time. Social media has contributed to this also by creating a sense of restlessness and what Jenny refers to as “cognitive junk food”.

Jenny talks about the word “plateau” next. Plateau is the word she uses for when one thinks things/life are generally OK and then things start to gradually decline. When you hit a plateau, it is usually a case of mastering the job that you are doing at hand. It isn’t about personal failure. Plateau’s are more about figuring out what is next, how you can continue to grow, and how you can make the most impact on the world, Jenny interviewed a wide variety of people from peak performers to others who peak in some other way. She found that pivots were the most successful when the answer was already within someone. When it doesn’t work out is when people try to pivot too sharply. We can’t always know 100% if a pivot is going to work or if it is right but you need to put yourself outside of your comfort zone and take the risk.

Jenny moves on to explain what she calls “the pivot method”, which is comprised of a four step process. Plant, is the first step: One foot stays planted and the other foot pivots and scans the other options. It is about where you want to end up one year from now. The second step is scan: As you plant your feet you scan all the options. The third step is piloting: This is the experimentation phase. The last step is launch: This step is exactly how it sounds, you are launching into whatever that pivot is that you have been experimenting with. Michael and Jenny give lots of personal examples of all of these steps and go into great detail.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Ditching the cognitive junk food
  • Efficiency
  • The pivot method
  • Mindfulness practice
  • The happiness formula
  • Rejection is a stepping stone
Direct download: 499.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 498: Norton Reamer Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Norton Reamer is the former Chief Investment Officer and CEO of Putnam Investments. He also founded and ran United Asset Management for 20 years. He has 50 years of experience on Wall Street. Today, Michael and Norton talk about his new book, “Investment: A History.” It is a detailed anthology on investment.

Norton stresses that everyone has a responsibility to understand their investments and to educate themselves to know what they are getting themselves into. Most people seem daunted by the challenges of investing. Real ownership, seeking a value, the role of leverage, and resource allocation are four key points of investment that Norton lays out in his book. When someone makes an investment, they need to really own that investment. It isn’t just a piece of paper.

Michael moves the conversation to economic bubbles and asks, “What are some of the timeless lessons that can be learned from bubbles you have witnessed in your lifetime?” Norton’s favorite bubble to have witnessed in his 80+ years is the latest bubble that popped in 2008. It was the way in which the bubble was created that fascinated him. He relates it to the great depression and discusses the similarities in recovering from it.

Next, Norton gives his perspective on efficient markets vs. the behavioral school. He says that it is a conundrum that has not yet been solved. Survivorship bias is the next controversial topic. They discuss the success of Warren Buffett and the “survivorship bias” argument that has been attached to him. Buffett has been around for many decades and both men agree that there is much that can be learned from Buffett. On the other side of the spectrum is Bernie Madoff. Norton explains how an operation like Madoff would be almost impossible to pull off in today’s markets. He also agrees with Michael in saying, “I would be deeply skeptical of someone producing 1% returns every month. You need risk to have returns like that.”

Michael brings up tail risk next. Norton describes tail risk as, “A one in a one hundred year event.” Things can be rare and unlikely but it is not the same as saying something is impossible. Conditions can always get extreme and produce “a one in a one hundred year event” and wipe you out. Norton uses Long Term Capital Management as a great example. Michael and Norton finish the podcast stressing that people can never be too cautious when investing in the markets. Educate yourself and prepare for risk adequately.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Personal responsibility in the stock market
  • The role of financial leverage
  • Resource allocation
  • The suspension of diligence during economic booms
  • Efficient markets vs. Behavioral markets
  • Warren Buffett and survivorship bias
  • Tail risk
  • Quant and momentum style trading
  • Practicing caution in the markets
  • What impact does interest rates have on the value of assets
Direct download: 498.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 497: David Stockman Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

David Stockman is on the podcast today for his second appearance. He is a former United States congressman, who also served as the Director of The Office of Management and Budget under president Ronald Reagan. His books include, “The Great Deformation”, and “Trumped: A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… And How to Bring it Back”.

Michael and David start off discussing the recent news of Larry Summers suggesting that the Fed should start buying common stocks. David says that this is an act of sheer desperation and that any economist, 20 years ago, would have never come up with such an idea. What has happened is that policy makers have been led into a dead end path. “Madness” is how David describes the Fed right now. The mentality people have today, with Janet Yellen, is that intervention is necessary and without it, the whole system will fall apart. This mentality was not present prior to the year 2000 or maybe even 2008. Wall Street and Washington applaud the policy only because the market continues to go up.

Michael turns the conversation to the present election and asks David how he perceives the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. “What does it say about America’s present state of mind?” David says it shows that America has had enough. The public is responding to Trump because he isn’t part of the system. Regardless of Trump’s stance on issues he will probably get a large part of Sanders supporters because they both have an “against the grain” political stance. David refers to Hillary Clinton as “the class president of a failed generation”. He gives examples back to 1991 when Bill Clinton was president, pointing out the senseless wars and damage that has been done to the economy due to policy. Clinton is “A survivor of what has been a 30 year consolidation of bad policy” says David. Hillary Clinton was the survivor who happened to be in the right place at the right time.

Next, David goes into his stance on Glass Steagall and how he would reinstate it in a way that would re-stabilize the financial system. Michael then has David elaborate on Deutsche Bank and some of the other problems the European banking system is facing. Michael asks, “What will happen if there is another 50% decrease on the S&P? What will the authorities do next?” David believes they are out of options. Going to negative interest rates will create a firestorm that they can’t take on. It will induce the sensible people in America to riot. A real correction will not happen until the market is able to stay down and correct from the damage that happened in the propping up in 2008. Michael and David finish up the podcast discussing the Chinese economy. David believes their economy is just as unsustainable as the United States. They are a “huge financial accident waiting to happen”.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Glass Steagall
  • Clinton and Trump campaigns
  • Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders supporters
  • Deutsche Bank
  • European banking system
  • Sub-zero interest rates
  • Chinese economy
  • 2016 Election as a turning point in America
Direct download: 497.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 496: Six Feet Under with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel interviews Milton Friedman. Of course, Friedman is dead. Such the conundrum.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Free lunch myth
  • Robin Hood myth
  • Collectivism
  • Case against equal pay for equal work
Direct download: 496.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 495: Ted Parkhill Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael talks with Ted Parkhill. Ted has over 25 years of management experience in the investment business. He is a founding partner of systematic macro investment manager Incline Investment Management (IIM). He is also serves as an Assistant Professor of business at Sierra Nevada College in Incline Village, NV.

Prior to IIM he was the director of marketing for Zazove Associates a multi-billion dollar quantitative convertible securities manager. He was a senior marketing executive at John W. Henry & Company one of the original Commodity Trading Advisors.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • It is possible to consistently generate profitable returns through systematic trading
  • Markets are inefficient and therefore trends materialize
  • Trends last longer than people think
  • Prices reflect the sum of the knowledge of all market participants
Direct download: 495.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 494: The Fight for Liberty with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Today, Michael dives into the fight for liberty. No show notes. Listen or not, your choice.

Direct download: 494.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 493: Adam Khoo Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael welcomes Adam Khoo to the podcast.

Khoo is a Singaporean serial entrepreneur, author, trainer and a professional stock and FX trader. Khoo became a self-made millionaire at the age of 26, making him one of the youngest millionaires in Singapore.

Khoo is the Executive chairman and Chief Master Trainer of Adam Khoo Learning Technologies Group, one of Asia’s largest private educational institutions, which runs educational seminars for over 80,000 people annually in 7 countries.

From Neuro-linguistic programming to trend following, Adam and Michael cover the key topics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Neuro-linguistic programming
  • Technical analysis
  • Finding the edge
  • Trend following
  • Market Wizards
Direct download: 493.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 492: TurtleTrader Plus Lemmy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael provides a FREE chapter from his audio book versions of The Complete TurtleTrader and Trend Commandments.

Mentions & Resources:

  • The Complete TurtleTrader
  • Trend Commandments
Direct download: 492.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 491: Brian Christian Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Brian Christian, co-author of “Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions,” is on today’s podcast. The book shows how common algorithms relate to our everyday lives.

Brian starts off giving a historical explanation of an “algorithm”. Algorithms do not just relate to computers or mathematical procedures. A cooking recipe can be described as an algorithm or you could use an algorithm to solve the question, “How do you know when your best opportunity is?” Brian says you use an algorithm known as “optimal stopping” to solve this question. He explains the algorithm that provides the best probability of the best outcome.

Probability is the next. Is it worth exploring a new business possibility? Or is it better to hone in your skills and continue on with what you are doing? There is a formal framework or algorithm to help make these decisions. Brian explains the “win stay, lose shift” approach. If a restaurant is good, go back. If you don’t have a good experience, don’t go back. It may not be the optimal approach but it is a good approach and easy to live by.

Michael jumps to an example with Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon. Brian tells Jeff’s story of Amazon and how he left his successful job at the time to start up this “online bookstore”. He ultimately used a “regret minimization framework” to make his decision. There was a possibility Jeff may not have been successful starting Amazon, but had he not tried it, he would have regretted not trying for the rest of his life. Brian also gives other examples of regret minimization algorithms.

Michael and Brian discuss threading next. Lastly, Michael brings up the “searching vs. sorting conundrum” that Brian discusses thoroughly in his book. Brian gives examples about sorting through information on the computer. He says that people should ask themselves “Should you be sorting at all?” Brian explains why “messy” is sometimes better.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Optimal stopping
  • What is an algorithm
  • Process vs. Outcome
  • The explore, exploit trade off
  • The multi-arm bandit problem
  • Win stay, lose shift
  • Regret minimization framework
  • Frequency and intensity of mistakes related to age
  • Upper confidence bound algorithm
  • Threading
Direct download: 491.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 490: Trump the Fed with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael dives into Donald Trump and the Fed. Listen at your peril!

Mentions & Resources:

  • Donald Trump
  • Janet Yellen
  • The Fed
Direct download: 490.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 489: Chris Voss Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Chris Voss is the author of, “Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It.” Chris is a former international hostage negotiator for the FBI. He has had an amazing career full of great experience and insights. Chris first entered the FBI in 1983 and has been involved with over 150 kidnapping cases. He started out working on a suicide hotline and quickly realized that his negotiating skills were applicable to all areas of life, not just hostage situations.

Chris starts the conversation off talking about how he begins hostage negotiations. It is about exchanging power and getting the upper hand early on in the negotiations. A lot of people want to think of negotiations as chess. Chris explains why this is not the case. You can make four moves in a row if you want. Not necessarily making one move, then a counter move by the other person. Chris goes on to explain that if you can walk out of any situation you don’t like, then you can win in any situation and you are able to have more fun with negotiating.

Next, Michael asks, “How do you go about negotiating with bat shit crazy people?” Even “bat shit crazy” has it’s patterns. Chris talks about being on Comedy Central and doing a skit on this exact situation. As long as he starts looking at patterns then things become aware to him and he can influence people’s emotions. When people don’t open themselves up to you, that is the first sign of danger. If people won’t talk, this is when you know psychologically they have shut down. 9-11 is an example of people being silent on the other side, shutting down, and leaving no room for negotiation. If you can ask someone “Have you given up on resolving this situation amicably?” Even having someone say “Yes” means they are immediately opening up a little more than they were before. Chris was always taught to go into situations knowing that people are not rational. They are driven by passion and purpose.

Chris also elaborates on “Why, How and Lying three times”. In general, “Why” questions make people feel defensive instantly. “How” questions make the other person feel powerful. People feel in charge when they are asked “How”, but it puts a lot of constraints on their answer. His last rule of negotiations is the “Lying three times” rule. If you get someone to lie three times then they most likely won’t act on that lie.

The podcast wraps up with bonus material of an interview between Michael and Chris recorded on a previous day.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Aversion to negotiation
  • Negotiating skills
  • Never pretend people are rational
  • Business negotiations compared to hostage negotiations
  • Lying three times
  • “How” and “Why” questions
Direct download: 489.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 488: Never Forget the Lessons with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael reads some of his favorite quotes circa 1920’s/1930’s from a famed trader. These quotes are timeless bits of wisdom. Michael adds commentary throughout.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • How is the “price” made?
  • You will never know all the fundamentals
  • Speculation
  • Getting mad at the market gets you nowhere
  • Bull and bear markets
  • Entry and exit signals
  • 1920’s wisdom on numbers
  • Always be ready to catch that unexpected move
  • Follow the price action
Direct download: 488.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 487: Robert Cialdini Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robert Cialdini is on today’s podcast. He is best known for writing “Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion” published back in 1984. Robert is the “go to man” for understanding effective persuasion. Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking and scarcity are his six key principles of influence that he teaches. His new book, “Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade”, introduces a seventh key principle of influence.

Michael asks “How did you start down this path? What was your ‘A-ha’ moment that got you researching for this new book?” Robert says it was a series of recognitions as he was reading the newest work in behavioral studies that made him realize that creating mindsets in people didn’t involve just six principles. He went back to his notes and looked at what the top people in various professions were doing. He realized that they were acting like gardeners. They were preparing the earth before planting the seed. These professionals were priming a persons mind to perceive their idea more fully.

Next, Michael and Robert talk about anchoring a persons perception of what they are paying or asking for. You start off with a higher number or a grander request before hitting the other person with what you really want. “Are there types of thinkers where pre-suasion is not as effective? Or have you found universally across the populations that pre-suasion is just very effective?” Robert says it seems to be a universal operating procedure that is built into us from birth. He uses a study done with 18 month old babies that proves that this is built into our psyche.

Lastly, Michael asks Robert to elaborate on the idea of unity. Robert shares a story of Warren Buffett and unity taken from his book. Michael finishes up the last 20 minutes of the podcast with a presentation on behavior change and the part that social norms play in creating that change, given by Robert. He focuses on how to make people move more towards a environmentally socially responsible role.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Establishing trust before asking for anything
  • Rational self interest
  • Anchoring a persons perception
  • Asking for advice rather than an opinion
  • Warren Buffett’s shareholder letter
  • Environmental responsibility
Direct download: 487.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 486: Individualism with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael opens the podcast with an excerpt from “The Fountainhead” about creating, entrepreneurism, and living for one’s self. “The Fountainhead” is one of Michael’s favorite books and encourages all to read it.

Michael dives into an example that dovetails right into “The Fountainhead” excerpt. Recently Michael tweeted a quote from Derek Bok, “If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.” He quickly got a response on Twitter saying he was “bearish”. Michael stresses throughout the conversation that it doesn’t matter if you are liberal or conservative. Trend followers don’t care about politics or media. It is all about price action.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Creators vs. parasites
  • Human relationships
  • Altruism
  • The individual vs. The collective
  • Liberal and conservative trading perspectives
  • Price action is paramount
Direct download: 486.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 485: Jared Dillian Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jared Dillian is editor of The Daily Dirtnap: A daily market newsletter for investment professionals. Jared is also author of “All the Evil of This World” and “Street Freak”. He gives a behind the scenes look at the good, the bad, and the ugly of Wall Street.

Jared’s interest with Wall Street didn’t start with the idea of making money. It was more academic. He wanted to learn why so many traders were trying to beat the market when all the Wall Street books he was reading said that beating the market was a huge waste of time. He started working at Lehman Brothers and quickly learned the culture within an investment bank was completely different. Everyone working at investment banks were in the business of making money, they are all traders. Jared speaks about the structure of Lehman Brothers and how they changed under the management of Dick Fuld. He then dovetails into detailing the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble, and explains why some firms were able to fail and others were able to survive.

Next, Michael and Jared talk about the “sex drugs and rock and roll” aspect of Wall Street. Jared looks back on what he saw when he worked in the pits of Wall Street and says that, “that culture” doesn’t really exist anymore since the 2008 crash. They finish up talking about the pros of being an entrepreneur rather than working for a big investment bank on Wall Street.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Behavioral finance
  • Market psychology
  • Housing bubble
  • Dot com bubble
  • Lehman Brothers
  • Starting your own hedge fund
Direct download: 485.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 484: Evolution with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

If you can’t change the data, then why try and fight it? Listening to people who have spent their lives researching and digging into the data is how we learn and progress. In today’s podcast Michael plays a clip by Richard Dawkins about data. Michael shows that listeners can find insight within the talk that can be applied to their lives–all aspects.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Evolution
  • Looking at the data
  • Natural selection
  • Long term macro evolution and short term evolution
  • Fossils do not prove evolution
  • Comparing animal and human bodies
  • Evolutionary arms race
Direct download: 484.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 483: Paul Tough Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

“What is it about growing up in poverty that leads to so many troubling outcomes? Or to put the question another way, what is it that growing up in influence provides to children that growing up in poverty does not?” This is the question that today’s guest, author Paul Tough, poses in his newest book, “Helping Children Succeed: What Works and Why.” It is a data driven book about how young kids are growing and developing in today’s world.

51% of children in the public school system are below the low income bar set by the government. Paul goes through the psychological issues of children from low income homes starting from birth all the way through high school. Science is very clear that children develop the most during the first three years of their life. He says there are two main things to think about when children are developing: stress, and day-to-day interaction with parents or caregivers. Paul gives examples of the types of stress and interaction that is good and bad during early childhood.

Paul talks about the education system next. He says that development should be looked at as on a continuum rather than separated into segments such as preschool, kindergarten, and so forth. Michael and Paul also speak to the behavioral issues that may come from different socioeconomic backgrounds and what schools can do to improve the outcome of a child. “Grit” and curiosity needs to be taught and encouraged along with standard learning, in and out of the classroom. Intervening more intensely in the first few years is a huge way of creating this motivation and curiosity.

Michael brings up the higher income children who also are having trouble finding “grit and perseverance”. Paul says we aren’t giving children the opportunity to struggle with adversity. The difference between not having grit in a higher income family as opposed to low income is that you can usually get by in life. You can usually find an average job and have food on the table. However, not having drive coming from a low income family, you may not be able to put food on the table and have a roof over your head.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Early childhood development
  • Creating the right environment for children
  • Childhood poverty
  • Serve and return parenting
  • Teaching grit and curiosity
  • The accountability movement
  • What motivates us?
  • Education as a national problem
Direct download: 483.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 482: Two Takes with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

There are back-to-back monologues on today’s episode. The two episodes consist of the same material, just said a little different. The first take Michael was told was too aggressive with too many F bombs, so he re-recorded but still left it up on the tail end of the podcast. The double header podcast today was inspired by a film Michael recently re-watched called, “Boom Bust Boom”.

Michael talks about Hyman Minsky’s “financial instability hypothesis”. Minsky said that there is instability in capitalism and if capitalism was eliminated, that would help eliminate bubbles. Minsky believed that offsetting the economy is how you eliminate instability. This is where the government came up with zero interest rates, and in some places, negative interest rates. Due to the Minsky mentality, economists think they can control the markets and stop human nature from happening.

Michael ties his documentary film into the discussion and describes the insight he got during ’08 when he happened to be filming. Trend following strategies and behavioral economics have these characteristics in common: 1. People will never be rational. 2. Markets will always trend up, down and sideways. 3. You can’t predict trends. 4. There are ways to make money even though numbers 1-3 are set in stone and will not change.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The tulip bubble
  • March 2000
  • Fall of 2008
  • Financial instability hypothesis
  • Trend following philosophy
  • Behavioral economics
Direct download: 482.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 481: Chris Zook Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Chris Zook is co-author of “The Founder’s Mentality: How to Overcome the Predictable Crises of Growth.” The work leading to “the founder’s mentality” started for Chris about 5 years ago. It is predicated on, “What are the deep root causes that allow some companies to stay young, stay energetic, and be sustainable in their performance over time?”

Only 1 in 10 companies sustain a modest level of growth over a decade. Chris, and his co-author James Allen, found that when the founder of a company was still evolved and their presence was still looming, companies had about three times higher performance than other companies where the founder had stepped away. Chris elaborates on their research process and the steps he and James took in writing “The Founder’s Mentality”.

A deep sense of insurgency, frontline obsession, and an owner’s mindset are the three characteristics that make up the founder’s mentality. Keeping an open mind at all times and willingness to adapt to your company’s growth is key. When companies fail to be open minded, they become short term minded. Chris has found a great response from this way of thinking. He has now written 5 books over the last 12 years on this topic and all have been extremely well received, especially his latest work, “The Founder’s Mentality”.

People are searching for happiness in their work and Chris is helping outline how to get there. He helps people own the customer service experience in their company. Chris and Michael use Nokia as a great example of an industry leader that failed to adapt. Nokia was the first to use email on phones, they were huge in cameras, and had the first smart phone but they failed to be innovative enough and became institutionally closed minded. Ultimately what looked like a tech company that could not have died, ended up committing suicide.

Chris uses Starbucks as another example of a company that started something special, but as soon as the company moved away from what Howard Schultz, the founder, had started they began to crumble. After profits started to take a hit, Howard Schultz was asked to come out of retirement and revive the company. Starbucks was self inflicting wounds that were unraveling the core of the Starbucks experience. Michael and Chris wrap up the podcast giving a few more examples of companies that caught what he calls the “founders disease” or lost the owners mindset.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The founder’s 100
  • What keeps millennials in their jobs
  • Frontline obsession
  • Sense of insurgency
  • Owners mindset
  • Founders disease
  • Meritocracies
Direct download: 481.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 480: Efficiency with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

“What is the goal? What does it take to get to the goal? What is the most efficient path to get to the goal? And is the goal obtainable?” Michael starts the podcast off asking these critical questions and relates them back to the explosion of social media in today’s culture. Social media is constantly being thrown in everyone’s face, and subsequently you need an efficient tool kit under your belt to be able to gain any type of real achievement in today’s world.

There is an epidemic of 20 to 30 year old men who cannot think. There is also a feminization of men that is taking over the younger generation. They seem to only be attached to their feelings. Men have traditionally had a more analytical view on things and women have a greater capacity to think with emotion. The analytical side of men is starting to get edged away.

Michael then poses the question, “How do you end the dominance of the 1%?” Michael says you either take their money, or kill them. If you do not act on one of those two things, then how else do you strip away their dominance? Once you walk through how you are going to “take care of the 1%” then you realize the statement is a sham. It just doesn’t work.

Michael moves on to poverty and unemployment next. 50% of Americans do not have $1 in the bank. 50% of Americans are also on welfare. Looking at the overall health of the American economy, things look a little messy, however the stock market is at all time highs. Although nobody can predict exactly when a black swan will hit, the economy is sure looking like it is ready for one.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Donald Trump politics
  • The 1%
  • Generation snowflake
  • Efficiency in your thinking
Direct download: 480.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 479: Zen DeBrucke Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Zen DeBrucke is on today’s podcast. She is the author of “Your Inner GPS: Follow your Internal Guidance to Optimal Health, Happiness and Satisfaction.” Her goal is to help clients find a stress free and happy existence by getting in touch with their inner voice.

Michael and Zen start off talking about the inner GPS. Zen believes that everyone is born with this inner voice guiding them, but most lose sight of that influence. Buddhism and Daoism have strong beliefs in the use of meditation to help people use their minds as a tool rather than an operating system. The more people realize there is a flow within their body, the more they can train their mind to get into this energy. Once someone gets into that flow, they are able to understand their thoughts and emotions clearer.

Neuroplasticity is the next. Zen says she has a tool kit to make people’s minds move in different directions. Zen teaches practices that help move their brain into a different domain when they have a block or feel trapped. She uses an example about her and her father’s relationship as well as a coaching session she had with Van Jones.

Zen describes how each person’s internal guidance system is linked in with their destiny. This internal GPS is trying to help use the mind to move towards a persons optimal life. Zen uses an example about the owner of Cliff Bar, as well as a personal example of an experience she had at the Denver airport. Her experience, in short, lead her to catching a plane ride that she would have never been able to catch had she not listened to her internal GPS. Michael also shares a personal example he had about listening to his internal GPS which lead to a great business opportunity. All these examples show the constant battle between what your gut is telling you to do, and what your head is telling you to do.

Michael and Zen wrap the podcast up discussing the meaning of ones “life purpose”. We have thousands of life purposes rather than just one. True fulfillment comes from giving and contributing. You don’t get that feeling when you are too focused on on one item. Michael says that one of his life purposes is doing the splits.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Your inner GPS
  • Your inner flow
  • Emotional experiences
  • Neuroplasticity
  • The breadcrumb approach
  • The relationship between stress and disease
Direct download: 479.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 478: Desert Island Prices with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

“We all avoid reality non-stop. We don’t know where it starts and where it ends. We don’t like to look at facts. We don’t like new information. We have biases that are non-stop.” Michael goes down a reality tour of market prices today. He talks about past prices in the market and the present all time highs we are experiencing right now. He makes listeners think about prices and how they move rather than voices at Bloomberg and CNBC. Michael says, “Just focus on price action and look at markets from a ‘desert island approach’.” Trading price is the only information you can trust. He gives examples from the past including the dot-com bubble, housing crisis, 1989 NIKKEI crash, Gold in the 1970’s, and possible current bubbles.

Michael emphasizes to put away all the noise and just look at the numbers. He is not saying when there will be the next market crash, just that there will be another one. Historically we are due for a significant decline. What are the odds that the S&P losses 50%? If you are going to retire soon, or are in retirement and the S&P drops, how will your life be? Will you be able to ride it out? Do you have an alternative strategy? Big questions.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Black Swans
  • Anti-fragile
  • Market Crashes
  • Price action analysis
  • Shutting out the noise
  • Island trading
  • Price distribution
  • No free lunch
Direct download: 478.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 477: Morgan Wright Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Morgan Wright is an internationally recognized expert on cyber security strategy, cyber terrorism, identity theft and privacy. He brings vast knowledge and insight into the space of cyber activity.

Michael and Morgan start the podcast off talking about cyber footprints. People don’t realize that there are countless ways to steal personal identities. You don’t even need to be present anymore to become a criminal. The Chinese hacking US government databases is just one of a few examples used by Morgan to illustrate the point. Morgan says that there is no accountability in the government, which is a major contributor to why some of these hacks are able to take place.

Email is the next topic. How safe is it? Email is one of the best ways to attack someone. Companies are being hacked and having money stolen in the millions of dollars through email. Scams can come in all forms, from flat out asking for money to relationship scams. Glitches in security and technology are sometimes even known, it just comes down to if the cost to repair is worth the reward.

Michael brings the conversation back to security and asks Morgan to elaborate on healthcare.gov. Morgan was tasked with confronting Congress and explaining the lack of security within that particular government website. He went before congress to prove how ill secure the website system was. When talking about the hearings and committee for setting up the new healthcare system Morgan said, “There was nobody really in charge, there was lack of control, and oversight… It was built for failure from the very beginning.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Snowden effect
  • Milton Friedman and Michael Moore
  • Teaching at the NSA
  • Manipulating human behavior
  • Combining the legal system and mental health system
  • Lack of accountability in government
  • Government using yesterday’s technology
Direct download: 477.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 476: Commandments with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael starts the podcast off with excerpts from an interview with Clint Eastwood. Clint answers the question, “What is the pussy generation?” He also goes on to give his take on what is wrong with the US presidential election, unemployment and free education. Michael sums up the interview saying, “I do love that this 86 year old tough guy is telling us…”

Michael uses Eastwood to lay the foundation for the rest of the podcast as he talks about “Trend Following Commandments.” Michael goes in depth about some of these fundamental trend following principles.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Political correctness
  • Pussy generation
  • Absolute returns
  • Inefficient markets
  • Market bubbles
  • Fundamentals are religion
  • The market is never wrong
  • Cutting your losses
  • Learn to love your losses
  • Price action
  • Betting the markets properly
  • Failure is the secret to success
Direct download: 476.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 475: Chase Jarvis Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Chase Jarvis is an award winning photographer, director, artist and entrepreneur. He is co-founder of Creative Live, a live educational platform. There is much to learn from his entrepreneurial ventures and how he made it in the photography world.

Michael and Chase start the podcast talking about basketball, and Golden State in particular. Chase goes to a lot of games and has had the opportunity to sit up close and personal with the players. He says the best part about going is seeing the infectious energy and passion among the players. Steph Curry is his favorite to watch and compares his confidence, energy, and talent to Michael Jordan.

Next, Michael asks about how Chase got involved with photography, and how his career has evolved into what it is today. Sports were a huge factor in his success as a photographer as well as becoming an entrepreneur. Teamwork, hardship, success, disappointment all gave relevance to his professional career development. His first photography shots were of skateboarding, snowboarding, etc. things that he knew well. He also had some professional friends in those sports that he could take pictures of which consequently helped jump start his career.

Chase moves into talking about his most recent venture, Creative Live. Creative Live is the world’s largest live educational platform. It is focused specifically on creative education and the ability to make a life out of that creative field. A few years ago Chase started to shift from just taking photos, to sharing his experiences with others as a photographer. He turned his photo studio into a bit of an incubator and launched the first app that could upload photo’s directly into social media outlets.

Chase shares with listeners how he flushes out his creative blocks with adventure. Adventure has always been an ignition to be propel him into a new head space. He gives a couple examples such as traveling to Europe for 6 months and traveling across New Zealand. Chase also shares simpler ways to travel and get your feet on the ground. Chase quotes a friend by saying there are two things you have to ask yourself if you think you are ready to make a change in your life: 1. Is this working? 2. Do I still believe in it? If the answer is no to both, then it is time to get out of what you are doing.

If you are interested in pursuing classes via Creative Live, Chase has provided a special discount for Trend Following listeners. Go here: https://www.creativelive.com/trend.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Gaining freedom in your life
  • Entrepreneurship
  • There is no overnight success story
Direct download: 475.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 474: Freedom with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael takes the podcast back to the 1960’s with a talk from Milton Friedman. Throughout the presentation Friedman outlines the role of government in a free society. He emphasizes the different variations of “free”. The first is freedom with the absence of coercion. The second is free in the sense of a “free lunch”. They have two very different very different meanings and Friedman goes in depth on the two.

Michael wraps the podcast up summarizing Friedman’s talk with a slightly more pessimistic view. Michael thinks that politics and government will never be straightened out. He loves Friedman’s thinking but has a hard time thinking that human nature will ever change. “I have a hard time imagining, with the irrationality of human nature, that anything will ever change. As long as we keep dying and keep replenishing with a whole new group of useful idiots and sheep…we can have our fantastic view of change, but…” Michael stresses that the key thing that’s important is building capital and the only person you can count on is yourself.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Unanimity in government vs. Majority rule
  • Principles vs. Expedients
  • Government conformity
  • Government autonomy
  • The meaning of property
  • Responsible individuals vs. Irresponsible individuals
  • Human rights
  • Freedom of speech
  • Government failure on a large scale
  • Market failures
  • 3rd party benefits for society
  • Government failure vs. Market failure
Direct download: 474.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 473: Chris Lochhead Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael talks with Christopher Lochhead. Christopher is co-author of “Play Bigger: How Pirates, Dreamers, and Innovators Create and Dominate Markets”.

Michael and Christopher start the podcast talking about the commonalities between most innovators and entrepreneurs. The legendary innovators that make their companies into a success focus on three main points: product design, company design, and category design. Category design is about inventing a whole new space in the world for their product. Legendary innovators are just as thoughtful about their category design as they are of product and company design.

Christopher and his co-authors went back and looked at every start up company founded in the United States dating back to 2000. They asked, “What percentage of the market cap in the category goes to the category king or leader?” On average the category king captured 76% of the markets profits. Category design is a secret “black art” in Silicon Valley. Only about 10% of companies are thinking about teaching the world to accept their new innovation. If you do not teach your consumers, then you are leaving your company up to chance, waiting to see if people will figure your company out on their own. Christopher stresses that when you create a product that fits into an existing category, you are by definition playing someone else’s game. And you are fighting for essentially only 25% of the market. He uses Microsoft as an example.

Michael asks Christopher to go into the idea of “disrupting the marketplace” with new ideas. Christopher says that “disrupting” is actually the wrong way to go about looking at things. Elvis did not disrupt Jazz, he just created a new genre that we now know as rock and roll. And in the same way, Les Paul created the electric guitar. He did not ruin the acoustic guitar; they just sit side by side now.

“When someone comes up with a new category, how do you determine pricing?” Christopher says that the category king has pricing power. You get to decide what the pricing is if you create the category. And in order to become a category king, the CEO needs to spend at least half of his/her time articulating the problem that has been solved with their product to the customer. Christopher goes into detail and uses Pixar as an example of this concept.

The category king dynamic is not geographically bound. There tends to be different kinds of technology that breaks through in different parts of the world, but that is really the only difference. In many parts of the developing world there is even more of a focus on getting the “product, company and design” right.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Disrupting the marketplace
  • Product marketing
  • Teaching consumers about your product
  • Creating new market categories
  • The anchoring effect
  • Thunder lizards
  • Category kings
  • The Innovator’s Dilemma
  • Category design
Direct download: 473.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 472: Silence with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Today, Michael dives into silence. An excerpt from Daniel Gross: “In the mid 20th century, epidemiologists discovered correlations between high blood pressure and chronic noise sources like highways and airports. Later research seemed to link noise to increased rates of sleep loss, heart disease, and tinnitus. (It’s this line of research that hatched the 1960s-era notion of “noise pollution,” a name that implicitly refashions transitory noises as toxic and long-lasting.)”

“Silence” science is leading the way with awesome new insights: “The growth of new cells in the brain doesn’t always have health benefits. But in this case, cells [generated from silence] seemed to become functioning neurons. “We saw that silence is really helping the new generated cells to differentiate into neurons, and integrate into the system.”

Michael weaves this narrative right back into his wheelhouse: day trading v. trend following. Lessons for traders, lessons for life. Enjoy the silence!

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Peace and quiet is all about the noise in your head.
  • Correlations between high blood pressure and chronic noise sources.
  • Possible therapeutic uses for silence.
  • Trend following.
Direct download: 472.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 471: Emma Seppala Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Emma Seppala is today’s guest. She is author of “The Happiness Track: How to Apply the Science of Happiness to Accelerate Your Success.” She is the Associate Director for the Center of Compassion at Stanford University. Emma’s work isn’t based on theories or common knowledge, there is a tremendous amount of neuroscience backing her work.

Emma starts the podcast off stating that being happy is a very subjective experience. With that in mind, in general, happiness is divided into two main categories; hedonic and eudemonic. Hedonic happiness doesn’t last long and is more associated with short burst of excitement such as sex and food. Eudemonic is much longer lasting and is more associated with self-fulfillment. Emma goes into depth explaining and giving example of both forms of happiness.

Michael asks Emma to talk about the myth of success next. Emma says Americans are over stimulating themselves, and believing that running on adrenaline is the best way to get things done. Chronic stress is actually what we are embracing and it starts to deplete our immune system. Emma acknowledges that you may not be able to control the world around you, but you can control your state of mind. Working on Stanford’s campus, Emma has seen first hand the severe epidemic of students buying into myths of happiness, especially on higher achieving campuses. They believe the only way to be successful is to burn themselves into the ground and of course, this notion is completely false. Unplugging and taking more vacations is the best way for us to reach our maximum potential. Creativity and happiness in the workplace depends on it.

Next, Emma discusses the impact breathing has on our emotions. There are different breathing practices that help out with stress and anxiety. Nurturing more calmness in our life helps us manage our energy much more. There was a study done at Harvard that showed our brains wonder 50% of the time. However, science shows that we are never happier than when we are in the moment of now. With technology constantly at our fingertips, it is getting harder and harder to be in the present moment. But when we are in the moment, it boosts our charisma and happiness. People are drawn toward others that are satisfied being in the present moment with them. Michael and Emma turn the conversation to negative emotions. These emotions make us more focused on ourselves and selfish. When the focus shifts to positivity, authenticity is created. Others crave authentic people they can connect to. They finish on talking about creativity and how to best tap into the creative parts of your brain. Just by making small changes in the way you work can really make a huge difference in the way your feel and your brain works.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Benefits of happiness
  • Stresses in life
  • Controlling your mind
  • Happiness in college
  • Cultivating resilience
  • Tapping into the opposite of fight or flight response
  • Impact of different breathing techniques
  • Living in the moment of now
  • Authenticity
  • The flow state
  • Activating creativity
Direct download: 471.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 470: Objective with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael takes the podcast back to 1959 with an interview between Mike Wallace and Ayn Rand. Wallace and Rand focus on her ‘revolutionary’ view on the world. Rand capsulizes her views as a philosophy based on objective reality. She expands on a new code of morality centered around mans life as a standard of value. This means that a mans highest moral purpose is the achievement of his own happiness and each man must follow his own rational self interest.

Atlas Shrugged demonstrates Ayn Rand’s philosophy in human terms. Rand and Wallace briefly touch on many subjects such as; self sacrifice, love, altruism, the democratic system, and welfare.

Michael wraps up the podcast by summarizing the interview and comparing it to life in 2016. He talks about the importance of leaving his own impact on the world and how necessary logic and reasoning is to being successful.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Man’s morality
  • Altruism
  • Self sacrifice
  • Free and unregulated economies
  • Capitalism with government help
  • Welfare
  • Depressions due to government interference
  • Strategic decision making
Direct download: 470.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 469: Laura Roeder Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Laura Roeder is a serial entrepreneur and her newest company is Edgar, a social media application. She started working for herself creating websites for people when she was 22 living in Chicago. It spread to optimizing traffic and online marketing for her clients. In 2014 she launched her social media software business, Edgar. They haven’t taken any money from investors and have grown to 2.8 million annual revenue.

Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn are the biggest social media platforms today. Many entrepreneurs get overwhelmed by the scope of content creation and posting needed to be successful. They tend to give up before they have even begun. Laura goes into the advantages of recycling content, notes that small percentages of your audience will ever see your content, and that the nature of the internet is all about repeated content.

The questions to ask yourself are, “How much traffic are you driving back to your website? How many people are buying off of that traffic?” There needs to be a balance between providing worthy content to your social media followers and not just pushing ads at followers. Michael then asks, “How important is it to be authentic?”

Don’t worry about people who want to un-follow or unsubscribe to your email. If they don’t want to follow you, then you don’t want them anyway. The extreme side of un-followers are critics. Laura and Michael talk about critics and how to cut them loose. They finish up talking about Edgar and how it works to make social media easier by automation, along with how Laura has carved out her space as a entrepreneurial woman in the tech space.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Social media
  • Business competitors
  • Success of Dropbox
  • Keeping up a great reputation
  • Be aware that competitors can access everything
  • Women in the entrepreneurial space
Direct download: 469.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 468: Irrationality with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael starts off explaining how Trend Following Radio has morphed into the diverse podcast it is today. He started Trend Following Radio in 2012. It originally was all about trading, but with a Vernon Smith interview, then Gerd Gigerenzer and Dan Ariely interviews, he realized he could take it in a different direction. With those three interviews under the belt, he was able to secure Daniel Kahneman on the podcast which he believes was the real tipping point for the podcast.

For the rest of the episode Michael plays curated clips from the men mentioned above: Vernon Smith, Gerd Gigerenzer, Dan Ariely and Daniel Kahneman. He wraps up by playing a short clip from another brilliant mind in behavior finance, Nassim Taleb. The clips exemplify the spirit of behavioral finance. They range from helping people understand their behavior at a fundamental level to behavior in markets and what drives the average person to make particular risky moves in life and in their trading.

Michael finishes up talking about the enormous amount of misinformation in news and media. You need to do the reading and educate yourself. Absorb wisdom from the right people, do your homework and put in the work to get ahead. It will not just come intuitively or from “for profit” media outlets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Law of demand
  • Behavioral economics
  • Experimental economics
  • How do you make bubbles go away
  • Using algorithms over emotions
  • Noise reduction
  • Statistical thinking
  • Understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty
  • Probability theory
  • Risk Communication
  • Unconscious things that make us fearful
Direct download: 468.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Ep. 467: David Burkus Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael and David Burkus start off talking about Fredrick Winslow Taylor. Fredrick’s claim to fame is discovering that it isn’t about innovating a product, but rather about innovating the factory. He looked into factory processes and what it took to make a product most effectively. The downside of his work was that he believed management should be operated scientifically as well. He thought that management was smart and factory workers were dumb. His values helped people focus on how to make a product most efficiently not how to make people sustainable, prolific and healthy. He took a lot of the emotion out of it. Most of his work has shifted from the United States and moved to other more factory driven places such as China.

The new form of work that we are seeing in most countries is creative work. Employees are required to make decisions or make collective designs with people in their company. Michael asks, “Isn’t this about making employees feel like entrepreneurs in their company or organization?” David uses tech start-ups as examples; Even as they get big they aim to make their companies continue to feel like a start-up and train their employees to think like solo entrepreneurs. This is how trust and intellect gets built within a company.

Next, Michael and David discuss the effectiveness of email. Pros: The cost of email is cheap and you can respond on your own schedule. Cons: Constant text and emails have diverted focus and created too much distraction. David stresses that there is no such thing as “multitasking”, there is only task switching. Some studies say it could take up to 15 minutes to get back to the focus you were at before you were interrupted.

Michael and David move the discussion back to the importance of keeping your employees happy. Having outstanding customer satisfaction comes down to putting employees first. Sometimes that means siding with your employees over your customers. You need to be able to tell some customers that your company or product simply may not be right for them. Also, creating the right work environment is key. Open work environments as opposed to more closed work environments have been becoming the norm. In an open office environment the idea is that working together is easy and creates a better collaborative environment. However there are negative effects such as increased sick days (perhaps because they do not want to see certain co-workers) and more distraction.

Michael and David finish talking about non-compete clauses and the counter productiveness of them. There is a difference between a non-compete and a non-disclosure. Apple and Google have two totally different views on this. Google is 100% fluid and open. Apple is very closed off and believes in the non-compete clause. When people migrate from one company to another, it has been shown in studies that both companies actually win from the intellectual knowledge transferred and gained from each other. Non-compete environments benefit everyone in the long term. Also, on a societal level you can see a huge benefit when non-competes are not allowed.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Re-designing the factory
  • Physical labor vs. Intellectual labor
  • Machines vs. Man
  • Multitasking = Task switching
  • “The customer is always right” mentality
  • Confirmation bias
  • Introverts and extroverts
  • Customer service
  • Non-compete clauses
Direct download: 467.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael starts an email from a listener that starts with praise, then turns around and claims that a top trend following trader has 400 employees and “super computers” to carry out trades, and that is why he is so successful. Michael uses this listener as just one example of how millions think. They are confused by what a computer does, and simply don’t understand what trend following is all about. The trader he refers to is on record saying that he trades off of Excel spreadsheets. For the remainder of the podcast, Michael expands on his response to the listeners email, and breaks apart algorithmic trading.

Michael next reads an excerpt from “Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking”, by Daniel Dennett. The excerpt breaks down algorithms in depth. Michael’s point is to show that a computer doesn’t make a great trader, it is the algorithms programed in the computer that creates the success. Where do the algorithms come from? Humans. Trend following is all about having the brilliance to come up with a strategy, but the execution is straightforward.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • “Super computers”
  • Systematic trading
  • Creating algorithms
  • Coding
  • Machines replacing humans
  • Breaking down the use of software
Direct download: 466.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Jason Gerlach and Chris Stanton are the CEO and CIO of Sunrise Capital Partners. Sunrise Capital is a systematic firm located in San Diego. They were featured in The Little Book of Trading. Sunrise has been in business for four decades trading. Their goal is to invest in an intellectual way by taking human emotion out of their decision-making.

Michael opens the conversation up with Brexit and how Sunrise Capital reacted. There are foreseeable events and unforeseeable events. Brexit was a foreseeable event. Jason and Chris breakdown the weeks before Brexit, and how Sunrise has been positioning their portfolios in contrast to other firms. Jason and Chris say that in the systematic world there have been two different camps of thought in how to approach Brexit.

Michael moves the conversation from Brexit to Oil dropping in 2014. Jason and Chris say that these events are not just moneymaking events, they are also risk management events. People live in the middle of a bell curve and never think of the tail events in life. They trade and invest for the non-random times and are always shocked when events tend to go further than expected. Sunrise does the opposite and uses technology to curb our human irrationality.

Michael and Chris dive deeper into risk management and the importance of diversification. Sunrise has five systems that operate differently in all market situations. Chris explains risk adjusted return and how setting the “heat” is really the heart of leverage. “What kind of return is optimal for you?” The higher expected rate of return, the more drawdown you may have. When you look at someone’s rate of return, you have to look at what their drawdowns are like. Leverage is a reality in strategies; you just need to be responsible with that leverage and cater it to each individual investors needs.

Michael moves on to ask, “Has Brexit opened up Pandora’s box?” Chris and Jason say Sunrise believes that price distribution has changed since 2013. Intraday volatility has changed and prices now make huge jumps in smaller time-frames than they ever have before.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Brexit and systematic trading
  • Price distribution
  • Price action
  • Directional betting on a coin flip event
  • Preparing for black swan events
  • Are computers good or bad?
  • MAR ratio
  • Diversification
Direct download: 465.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Everyone was told to trust the system and be happy: “Save your money and interest income will be your retirement.” This has come to be completely untrue and people are collectively beginning to wise up, as seen in Brexit.

Michael goes into a timeline of market crashes illustrating trend following success: 1973-1974 stocks go down 50% and trend following kills it. 1987, known as Black Market Monday, US stocks go down 20%+ in a day and trend following kills it. Barings Bank collapses spring of 1995, trend following kills it. August 1998, Long Term Capital Management craters, and trend following made a fortune. It was almost a zero sum transfer from LTCM to trend followers in August of 1998. Spring of 2000, the dot com bubble bursts and trend following cleans up again. 2002 was one of the best trend following performance years ever. After 2002 another bubble is built and when it burst in October of 2008, trend following had outstanding performance results yet again. When the majority of people think the world is ending, trend following is reaping the profits. Brexit? Yes, too.

Nobody can predict the future but if you want to play the game, you have to place bets. Trend followers were in established trends once Brexit hit. They do not predict, but they have educated bets. Michael ends with one question, “What side are you going to be on? The side of the winners or the side of the losers?” It’s your choice.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Boom and busts
  • Brexit
  • Certainty in markets
Direct download: 464.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael and Jack Schwager talk about his new venture Fund Seeder. Jack is the author of the Market Wizard series. His books have remained relevant over the past 25 years, and for many traders they are the best trading books on the shelves today. Michael and Jack talk about the structure of the Market Wizards books and how they evolved to interview style format. Michael thanks Jack for opening his mind on the direction he took the Trend Following Radio podcast.

Many of the traders Jack was able to interview, such as Bruce Kovner and Michael Marcus, never did another interview after “Market Wizards.” A lot of the secret to the book series success was the exclusivity of the interviews. Michael asks, “Of all the traders you have talked to, what trader impressed you the most?” Jack has a hard time, of course, narrowing it down to just one because there has been so many extraordinary people that he has interviewed. That being said, in terms of track records and sheer intellect, he would chose one. Jack was completely awed by his accomplishments and was surprised how great he was on a personal level.

There has been a strong trend over the years for money to go to bigger and bigger asset managers. It has become a safer thing to do, to put money with a larger manager. It isn’t performance driven, it is purely safety driven. Jack says that even if you have skill it is becoming exceedingly more difficult to gain new clients and get big. Jack’s new venture is focused on helping these start up traders. The firm helps connect investors as well as companies that may want to find new and upcoming traders. Jack elaborates on the match making process and how they present verified and unverified track records.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trading legends
  • Futures markets
  • Equity markets
  • Gaining clients as a new trader; Fundseeder
Direct download: 463.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael starts the podcast asking, “Do you need permission to get through your day?” He goes right into two examples: The first example is of his 12 year old nephew who just finished his baseball season. The second example is of a new show called “Billions.” It is about a hedge fund manager pitted against the U.S. attorney of New York.

Michael argues against/for the political corruption that starts in child sports. Michael says that being screwed over early by the system is a good thing. It makes you stronger in the long run. Every time you face these types of obstacles, you need to learn to punch through them. You can’t get bogged down with seeking permission. Especially at a young age, if children learn to push through and work hard they will have a much better chance at success later on in life.

Michael recommends watching the show, “Billions”. However, there are some things about Wall Street that have been left out. The show is based around a corrupt hedge fund manager that only trades off insider trading. The show does not highlight any other form of trading other than trading off fundamentals. Basing a character off of trend following is not nearly as “sexy” or dramatic. They want to position all of Wall Street as insider traders and corrupt because that is a far better story than making money off of rules and algorithms.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Baseball politics
  • Asking for permission
  • “Billions” (TV show)
  • Insider trading
Direct download: 462.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael takes a sci-fi journey on today’s podcast as he interviews Robin Hanson. Robin is professor of economics at George Mason University and his new book is, “The Age of EM.” Robin and Michael look forward about 100 years and analyze what the world will look like.

They start the podcast discussing singularity and what it will be like when robots take over. Michael asks, “How much time will it take to get to singularity and are there faster ways that we may get to this point?” Robin says that robots are a staple of where the future is headed. There are a few different schools of thought on how they will evolve but Robin’s theory is based on porting. In a nutshell, this means that you re-write old software to fit your new criteria. The idea is to do the same thing with the human brain. Robin goes into detail on this idea and says that it may take as little as one century to unfold.

Next, Robin discusses the types of people that will start out being emulated. The first will be top intellectuals of the time. After some years that will expand to other types of humans. Robin says that the economy will boom and double in size quickly. He also expands on “Em cities”, what they are, how they are created, and how they are run. “Em’s” is the term Robin uses for emulation robots.

Michael brings up the effects this next reality will have on mother nature and Em sex. Em’s live in a virtual reality. They never have pain or disease. They have perfect bodies and just have sex for recreational purposes. However, they do not last forever. Em’s will have to retire eventually because of software rot which Robin gives examples of and expands on.

Next, Michael asks about the political ramifications of robots entering the work space. Will Em’s run for politics? Robin says that they will most likely be involved in politics because they would never want to be run by people that are not nearly as fast and smart as them. He then expands on what the bodies of Em’s will look like. He describes the different shapes and sizes that Em’s are going to employ. This leads to the question of death. “Will Em’s be afraid of death?” Robin says that they probably wont see it coming.

Many people, when they look at the future, like to discuss what will happen. There is a degree at which our future can be influenced but to a large degree it is out of our control. Technology has been out of control for awhile. There are such varied interests among people that it will not matter if one group wants to move forward with Emulations or not. Things will continuously evolve. Michael and Robin end on how the political system will be run in the Em world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Singularity
  • Robots taking over
  • Artificial intelligence
  • Slavery
  • Reversible computing
  • Virtual reality
  • Future of politics
  • Democracy in the future
Direct download: 461.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s podcast Michael breaks apart comments from a Ray Dalio article. Dalio is one of the most successful hedge fund managers alive. He does not give out too much information on his trading strategy, except that he is 100% systematic.

Before Michael begins reading the article he asks, “When the Fed raises interest rates, what will happen? Will the world end like people seem to think?” The first article he reads from was written in 2015 and answers questions on interest rates and the Fed. Next, Michael reads an article from 2016 where Ray comments on the Fed further. Ray is running a systematic firm, however, he gives historical narratives of the debt cycle. Michael still asks the question, “How do Ray’s words connect to trading? When to buy? When to sell?”

Michael stresses that presenting “Oz behind the curtain” statements do not help anyone in there trading. If someone said buy here, sell here, that would help people, but using terminology that could be interpreted as anything is worthless.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamental analysis
  • Bubbles
  • Zero Interest Rate Policy
  • Fed
  • Crony capitalism
  • Quantitative easing
Direct download: 460.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael interviews Tucker Max. Tucker has authored many books, however today he is on the podcast to talk about a new entrepreneurial venture. Tucker created a simple algorithmic process to writing a book. He began by asking himself: What do we have to do to position a book? How do we structure it? How do we outline it? How do we conduct an interview to get the information out of a authors head? And then how do we transcribe it? Once he had these answers, he had a company.

Today, 18 months in, he has signed about 230 authors and has put out about 50 books. With a price point of $20,000-$50,000, Tucker and his company offer the exact steps to writing a book. His company is not ghostwriting. They aren’t learning anything about your content, just getting your ideas on paper in a cohesive manner. You have to qualify in a few ways for their service: Can you pay for it? Do you have sufficient ideas for writing a book? And are you an a**hole? A**holes do not make the cut.

Michael and Tucker bring up the importance of Amazon when it comes to successful marketing. Although Google is the #1 search engine, Amazon is the search engine when looking for legitimate products or the best books to buy on any given subject. When people are looking for a book or a product with reviews, they turn to Amazon.

If you are going into any business, writing a book is the best way for you to become an information authority in that field. Tucker goes into depth describing the steps he takes client through to write their book. He also goes into detail about his clients motivations to writing a book or being held back from writing. Many people see writing a book as an extension of themselves and this holds them back. People don’t want to fail.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Marketing positioning
  • Selling to your audience
  • Finding your niche
  • Writing a book
Direct download: 459.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael starts the podcast reading an email from a listener. This listener is a fan of the show and agrees with most of Michael’s views. However, he writes Michael asking about his opinion on a fundamental trading strategy that he employs. The listener uses a strategy that can’t be quantified and is not systematic. Michael challenges anyone listening to send their track record.

Next, Michael moves into another trading strategy he is asked about frequently, predictive technical analysis. When you hear predictive technical analysis, you know you are watching a show. It is all made up. Michael throws out the same challenge to any predictive technical analysis trader. Prove that it is a legitimate trading strategy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Systematic trading
  • Fundamental trading
  • Gambling
  • Trend following biases
  • Day trading
  • Predictive technical analysis
  • What is the best strategy?
Direct download: 458.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel has an “out of the box” interview today with Amy Herman. In 2000 Amy started a program called, The Art of Perception at The Frick Collection in New York City. She helps her students figure out how to fix big picture problems by looking at the small details. Her new book is “Visual Intelligence: Sharpen Your Perception, Change Your Life.”

Amy starts the podcast off sharing a story referred to by Michael as “the soap story.” It is about a man from Uganda who was moved by how wasteful the hotel industry is. His big picture movement started with a bar of soap. The staff at a hotel he had been staying at cleaned his room and replaced a bar of soap that he had only used a few times. He contacted the front desk of the hotel and asked why his soap had been replaced when it had not fully been used up. The front desk explained that they replace all the soaps everyday regardless of how much had been used. What came of this small encounter? This man from Uganda jumpstarted a movement that changed the way the hotel industry operates by being more mindful of the how much needless waste they are creating. It was a small detail that changed a big picture problem.

Next, Amy shares an “aha” moment she had in college about art. She went from practicing law to studying museum education which led to her founding The Art of Perception at The Frick Collection in New York City. The program began with teaching medical students about art and how to translate it into their own profession. She started the program in 2000 and in 2004 she was having dinner with some friends which sparked the idea of expanding the program to the police field. It was wildly accepted and in no time, the program was expanded to just about every other professional field. Amy goes into some examples of her students that took her class and that have shared real life examples with her. Her students have been able to apply her teachings to everything from helping diagnose patients to solving crimes. It is all about the small details in the big picture.

Amy says her program has been so successful for two reasons; art is powerful and art is not threatening. She requests that her students do not take notes, and there are no cell phones allowed during class. All that is needed is your eyes, brain, and your ability to communicate. She doesn’t want to teach people how to see art, but rather teaches what she refers to as the five “A’s”: Assess, analyze, articulate information, adapt your behavior, and become accountable for your decisions.

Amy talks about listening to your sixth sense but also being able to articulate what you are feeling so you can act on it. She stresses that precise and consistent communication is paramount and gives some real life examples of why it is so important and what could happen when that ground work is not laid down.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Undoing perceptions
  • COBRA methodology
  • Listening to your sixth sense
  • Situational awareness
  • See something say something
  • Pertinent Negative
  • Critical inquiry
Direct download: 457.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Josh Hawes. Josh is the Risk Officer and Investment Manager of Hawking Alpha. He is a trend following trader now who started off at Goldman Sachs. Josh breaks apart the trading industry, highlighting many of the cons associated with the mutual fund space.

Josh has always had a passion for math. He started looking at the performance of different funds within Goldman. As soon as he started to look at returns of some, he began to see a disconnect. They would judge themselves off “beating the index” but they were still losing massive amounts of money. They would also have access to CEO’s of top companies and still not be able to make money off of the information they would share. This is when he began to transition out of the company and turn to other forms of trading, not just long only.

Josh was given many books to read while at Goldman. “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” was one that resonated with him the most. “Trend Following” was another book that Josh had come across. “Trend Following” triggered him to reach out to some of the traders mentioned in the book. Ed Seykota and Jerry Parker were just a couple of the traders he was able to spark up a conversation with by reaching out.

Next, Michael and Josh break apart index investing. Josh says everyone should ask themselves, “Why does the market owe you anything? And if the market goes down, does that not mean that the markets can go down for a long period of time?” You can’t say that you should go long the market because for 200 years the market has gone up. There has been massive ups and downs and you have to be able to navigate the down periods. Michael then asks, “How does one become the next Warren Buffett?” Josh says that 2008 is one of the best examples of why you could never be the next Warren Buffett. There are a lot of people in the mutual fund space that try and mirror Buffett. Some of these people fail trading the exact strategy as Buffett. So does that make Buffett lucky or a genius?

Josh and his firm guarantees to always follow their stops. He guarantees his clients that he will be a trend follower and although he can not guarantee any level of return, he will always follow his stops. This sets Josh and other trend followers apart from fundamental traders. Josh then segues into what he believes are the four ways to make money: When prices move, when prices don’t move, arbitrage, and high frequency trading. He expands on these four points and gives examples. Michael and Josh end the podcast on the importance of talking directly with clients and connecting with people on a personal basis.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trading off fundamentals
  • Keeping up with the Jones’s
  • Smooth equity curve’s
  • Concept of an Index
  • Mutual fund industry
  • 10,000 hours
  • Arbitrage
  • High frequency trading
Direct download: 456.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Ryan Holiday. Today they discuss his new book, “Ego is the Enemy.”

Ryan makes the case that ego is the worst factor that you can add into any situation. So many entrepreneurial ideas start out as crazy. However, when the idea works out after ignoring every critic or bit of sound evidence that it would not work, then that can create an ego that can easily get out of control. Ryan says, “This is how a person that builds an empire also destroys an empire.” He uses General Sherman from the Civil War as an example of controlled success. His greatness came gradually and unexpected as opposed to a person like Napolean who thought they were set for greatness from the outset. Google is another example. It was started by two men who did not set out to conquer the internet but because they focused on events as they came, one at a time, greatness gradually happened.

Next, Michael brings up one of Ryan’s book chapters relating to being a student. He tells the story of Kirk Hammett, one of the greatest heavy metal guitarist of all time, being a student of Joe Satriani who is one of the most famous guitar virtuosos of all time. Hammett hired him when he was already on his way to being famous. Even with his success, he knew he still had plenty to learn from Satriani. Hammett was able to be humbled enough, even after being chosen as the new guitarist of Metallica, to hire someone who was an even better guitarist than him so he could continue to learn. Steve Jobs is another example that is brought up. Before he created the iPod and iPhone there were many other layers to his story. His story could have ended after he was fired and he could have become a cautionary tail for CEO’s to learn from but instead he became an inspiring story that everyone can learn positives from.

Michael and Ryan move into breaking apart the “10,000 hour rule.” Ryan says that it isn’t a real number. It is egotistical to think that once you hit that 10,000th hour that you will gain your success at that moment. Outcome is one thing, but the process is something else. If we could learn everything from a book that would be great but some lessons can only be learned from painful experiences. It is a balance between learning from your own experiences and learning from others. Landing on the other side of fear, failure, success, and aspirations can be a great feeling. Ryan says that each person is constantly at one of those points in their life. It is ever changing, but the worst thing you can introduce into any of those phases is ego.

Michael finishes the conversation asking Ryan if he thinks his message will translate to the younger “millennial” generation. Ryan says that this is something he had thought a lot about while writing his book.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Letting other people win
  • Being seen not heard
  • Only the paranoid survive
  • Dealing with failure
  • Dealing with success
Direct download: 455.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts the podcast off talking about President Obama and his recent visit to Asia. Michael had an interesting bird’s eye look at the President’s visit. He describes the the reaction to President Obama’s visit and why Obama deserves credit for normalizing relations with Vietnam.

Michael moves into talking about free market systems and the necessity for them. Venezuela is a perfect example of a failed socialistic state. They are failing big time with no sign of recovery. Michael moves into reading from an article written by David Sirota from 2013. Sirota thought that Hugo Chavez was an amazing leader three years ago. However, in 2016 Sirota goes on to say that oil is killing the economy rather than socialism.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Venezuela
  • Hugo Chavez
  • Negative interest rate policy
  • Trading off politics
Direct download: 454.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Daniel Shapiro. Dan is author of “Negotiating the Nonnegotiable.” He demonstrates negotiation as a process and quantifiable. His work tries to articulate practical negotiation skills based on the most recent science. Dan’s work started when he was working in eastern central Europe when countries were going from open, to closed societies. He wanted to help people deal with conflict more effectively especially the emotional side of it, and more specifically, dealing with identity. He looked at: Do relationships matter in negotiations? Do emotions matter? And how do you deal with them? He has spent the last 20 to 25 years learning how these intertwine. Dan’s website sums up his work perfectly saying, “Drawing on these experiences and his years of research at Harvard, he has developed a wealth of practical approaches to amplify influence and leadership—in business, in government, and in life.”

Dan and Michael start off discussing, “What gets us so stuck in emotionally charged conflicts?” This is a question that drives Dan and his work. In the early 1990’s Dan was working with refugee’s in Yugoslavia hoping to promote good communication. He was doing a workshop in Serbia where he met a women who shared a personal story of tragedy that has stuck with him for the last 24 years. His work is a homage to help people who may feel hopeless, like there could not be any more room for negotiation. Michael says, “Well aren’t there some situations where negotiation is not even on the table and things are just going to play out?” So often we get into ruts of feeling this way, thinking there is no possible way out, but more often than not there is always negotiations that can take place. There is always a way out.

Next, Michael asks, “Don’t both people need to be willing to negotiate to enter a negotiation?” The short answer is no. It only takes one side to move toward a resolution. Also, don’t ever assume that both sides of a conflict need to be rational. The classic challenge within conflicts that he sees is “How do you deal with an irrational person?” Everyone thinks that they are the rational ones and the opposite party is irrational.

Michael and Dan move on to discuss BATNA. BATNA is an acronym for; Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement. It is your “walkaway alternative”. Most people walk away to a worst situation than they were in. You always need to think rationally and not emotionally about your alternative. Lastly, Dan gives an overview of what he calls the five lures of the tribal mind; vertigo, repetition compulsion, taboos, assault on the sacred and identity politics. Dan expands and gives examples of these lures. He says that these concepts are obvious and everyone has experienced them. He just puts words to these feelings that people have so people can identify and help work through them.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Negotiations
  • Self awareness
  • BATNA (Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement)
  • Five lures of the tribal mind
Direct download: 453.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel breaks apart Bill Ackman and Valeant Pharmaceuticals. He reads from a MarketWatch article that highlights documents that came from a Senate committee investigating the Valeant scandal, and the various reactions of top people involved. Michael also outlines and comments on various interchanges between Bill Ackman, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and news outlets.

This episode is a “behind the curtain look” at billionaire traders and the seduction of fundamentals.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamentals
  • Valeant vs. Enron
  • The Deep State
  • Fixing the media
  • Trading off price
Direct download: 452.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Daehee Park and JT Marino. They are the owners and founders of Tuft and Needle, a modern mattress company. They met during college at Penn state, parted ways after college and then met back up in Silicon Valley at a startup tech company.

Two young men, who had never worked at a mattress store and were coming straight out of Silicon Valley, hardly fit the mold of mattress company tycoons. When they first started Tuft and Needle, the majority of questions they received all circled around how and why they came to enter the business of mattresses. The answer was quite simple; JT and Daehee started the company based on horrible personal experiences buying mattresses. After their experiences and talking about them together, the two sat down and wrote out all the painful things associated with shopping for a mattress and discussed how they could eliminate those experiences. They came to find out that their wasn’t any “love” or brand loyalty associated with a mattress or the company. This was something they wanted to change.

Since they started with zero mattress experience, Michael asks the obvious question, “What was the first step you took once realizing you wanted to be in the mattress business?” The first step was building up the list of negative experiences they had encountered with personally buying a mattress. Second step was trying to figure out, “What is a mattress? What is the science involved? What are the root principles? And working backwards from that.” They ripped open one of their own mattresses and figured out the components. After seeing the makeup of the mattress, they called around to manufacturers to figure out what it would cost to build.

Next, Michael asks “What kind of motivation did you have for disrupting the industry?” JT and Daehee only figured out the kind of traction they could gain after about a year. They didn’t know how big of an “old boys club” the mattress industry really was. However, their success has proved that there was definite need for disruption in the industry. The bar was set so low to begin with in the industry that they immediately started disrupting it in all areas: price, technology and service by just by listening to customer feedback. Even with increasing their marketing over the years, the majority of their growth is 70% organic and word of mouth.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Marketing a company
  • Growing a startup
  • Product development
  • Importance of customer service
  • Creating art
  • Simplification of products
  • Venture capital
Direct download: 451.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off reading a listener email from someone interested in making 3-4% every month with only 15% drawdowns. Michael gives his personal feedback as well as responses from Facebook after posting the email. The responses were mixed. Some people fully believed these kinds of returns are possible, while Michael and others said that if anyone is telling you they can produce 3-4% returns every month then it is absolutely a scam. Only Long Term Capital Management, Bernie Madoff, and some high frequency traders with insider trading access can tout such returns.

Michael finishes the podcast talking about the upcoming American elections. What is the alternative to Trump and Sanders? Hilary Clinton? Michael says that everything is an act with Clinton and that she’s a bona fide…[fill in the blank].

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Long Term Capital Management
  • Bernie Madoff
  • Leverage
  • Diversification
  • Indian Stock Market
Direct download: 450.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Neil Pasricha. Neil is author of the New York Times best seller, “The Happiness Equation.” He is also author of the popular blog, “1,000 Awesome Things.” Neil brings great insights on finding happiness and staying positive.

Neil starts the podcast sharing how his success started. During his first years of gaining notoriety for teaching about happiness, he actually wasn’t happy himself. He was going through a divorce, hardly sleeping, and still working a full time job at Wal-Mart management. His creative output was nothing. He ended up falling in love with a women and that ended up shifting his thinking. He went from observing awesome things, which he is probably most known for, to the application of integrating those awesome things into your life, such as “How do you live a happier life?” “The Happiness Equation” started as notes to Neil’s unborn son. He essentially wanted to write down everything he wanted him to know about life.

Neil details some of his techniques on how he starts writing a book. He is a huge believer of “the note card system.” For a few years he carried note cards around and wrote down any thoughts or tidbits that he would see during the day that were interesting. This is a great example of placing action before motivation which is critical to reaching goals. Neil says that taking small steps is the key to success. Michael brings the conversation back to Neil’s book and happiness. The first thing that pops up on Google search when you type in “how to be” is “how to be happy.” Everyone wants to be happy but they are struggling, searching, stressed, and looking for balance.

The traditional way of thinking is, “Study hard, get good grades, and you will be happy.” Neil says that you should flip that upside down and work on; being happy, then doing great work, and then you will have big success. All studies show that choosing to be happy above all other things leads to a better life. The healthiest societies in the world do not have retirement. Instead they focus on loving what they do throughout life. People need to have a challenge and a way to stimulate the mind and body. Retirement, for most, tends to put an abrupt halt to those things. Michael ends with taking quotes from Neil’s book and having him elaborate.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Happiness
  • Retirement is a lie
  • Loving your work
  • The lottery
  • The note card system
  • Criticism
  • Goals are never ending
  • Having less wants in life
Direct download: 449.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today, Michael Covel interviews Mike Lofgren. Mike’s new book is titled, “The Deep State: The Fall of the Constitution and the Rise of a Shadow Government.” We are in a world where everyone thinks their vote matters and that the next President will fix all of America’s problems.

Michael starts the podcast off reading an excerpt from Lofgren’s new book. The two dig into expectations that people had for George W. Bush. As he failed, the people then voted in Barack Obama. Obama failed to meet people’s expectations as well. Lofgren explains what he describes as a “deep state” phenomenon.

Next, Covel and Lofgren dig into: “Does our vote really matter?” Lofgren says that whoever is elected President matters on the margin. The general vector of who gets what, what the general distribution of income is, and what our general foreign policy is, is going to be pretty much the same no matter who is elected. However, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are so far out of the box that they may change those norms because of how out of distribution the system has become. The public knows something is wrong. Trump and Sanders have, at the very least, shaken up the political structure regardless of if they win the election or not.

Lofgren goes into economics and military next. He doesn’t look at economics and military as separate entities. He sees all arms of government as intricately intertwined. When you see a change in the economics of the country, you can see just as large of a shift in the military and vice versa. Michael and Lofgren also discuss Dick Fuld and the Lehman Brother collapse.

Michael moves on to ask, “Why aren’t their more whistle blowers coming out of the government?” Lofgren says that it is largely because people don’t want to go to prison. More people are being charged with espionage in America than within any other government. Michael and Lofgren continue to dig into depth about politics, corruption, and Wall Street for the rest of the podcast. Michael ends asking Lofgren, “Is there really anything on the horizon where this deep state entrenchment goes away?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The deep state phenomenon
  • Military industrial complex
  • Vietnam War
  • National debt
  • Negative interest rates
  • Capitalism in communist countries
  • Does your vote matter?
Direct download: 448.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Ben Hunt. Ben is the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners and the author of “Epsilon Theory.” This is his second time on Trend Following Radio. He has an interesting way of looking at capital markets–through the lens of game theory.

Michael and Ben start the podcast off talking about buy and hold and why the strategy does so poorly. Ben moves on to break apart monetary policy and domestic politics and how they are intimately intertwined. When you have a world of massive debt, like we do today, then deleveraging naturally should take place. Instead, in today’s world you have the ownership of that debt shifted from private entities taking responsibility of it, to the government.

Central bank policies are always a direct reflection of the politics that are going on in the big four economies that drive the world; U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. The domestic political interactions going on in those countries are what you see in the world’s economics. This leads to cooperation during economic crashes, for example, during the great recession. Countries inflate their economy to get out of economic crashes. Going to a lower or negative interest rate is a perfect way to devalue a countries currency. Right now, we are moving from a positive sum on trade, to a zero sum on trade and Ben says that the outcome is very predictable. He says that we have seen this movie before and it isn’t hard to see how it is going to play out.

Michael brings up Ray Dalio and asks the question, “Why are all these companies putting their money in one place, with one company and with the same model?” Ben notes Ray Dalio’s massive amount of money that he manages and what Bridgewater (his company) has created is an easy process that is implemented in an automated and quantitative system. The whole notion of having a rigorous process and managing clients money within that process is Bridgewater and Dalio’s most widely spread influence. Bottom line, instead of trying to predict what is going to happen we need to try and react quickly to circumstances.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Monetary policy
  • What drives the value of currency?
  • Economics in recessions
  • Systematic models
  • Central Banks
  • Policy controlled markets
  • Expectations of the public markets
Direct download: 447.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel talks political correctness. Americans take regular issues, and blow them up to the extreme. We see it 24/7. In addition, there is massive abundance, arguably a distraction to the freedom to make choices. Is the freedom to make your own choices even real?

Michael reads excerpts from an article by Josh Brown titled, “Abundance.” He makes the case that abundance is now the enemy, which sets our economy apart from every other culture in history. For example, so much entertainment is free these days; movies, video games, apps, dating websites, music, the list goes on. People are taking paid versions of products and producing cheap and free versions. Josh points out that a year ago he was writing about scarcity, now its abundance. We use to have pop culture or a #1 hit TV show or hit band. Now there are 50 different sub cultures and genres.

But abundance is killing us. Josh notes that it would be best if there was a major flush of the system. Capital needs to be exchanged and shifted. The imbalances we are experiencing will inevitably correct and restart, it’s only a matter of when. Michael stresses that you need to have an investment strategy to prepare yourself for that inevitable correction. You need an investment strategy to take advantage of the next crash, as well as save yourself from the next crash.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Ego
  • Preparing yourself for the next crash
  • Abundance
  • Downfall of the economy
Direct download: 446.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Parag Khanna. Parag is an international relations expert, a CNN Global Contributor and Senior Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore. He is also the Managing Partner of Hybrid Reality, a geostrategic advisory firm, and Co-Founder & CEO of Factotum. Parag’s new book, “Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization” recently came across Michael’s desk. The concept of connectivity does not just relate to mobile phones and Skype. There is a very physical and tangible evolution of connectivity that can be boiled down into three categories; transportation, energies and communications.

Michael and Parag start the podcast off touching on what connectivity is and then dive into the relationship between cities and states. Parag says that there is not one single successful state that is not built upon the stability of their successful cities. We have more mega and viable cities than states in the world. Cities are the drivers of growth. More mayors are sitting heads of states or presidents nowadays than any other time in history and think of themselves as CEO’s rather than politicians.

Next, Parag elaborates on supply chains. The diversity of products available today is truly global. A product can have digital design from Silicon Valley, assembly in China, and a call center for product customer support in Vietnam. As a business, the combination of infrastructure investment and connecting through supply chains to global markets makes you a real player in the economy. Michael brings up the economical impact that globalization has made, in particular to taxes. Apple is working with Ireland to keep their investments outside the U.S. More and more companies are realizing that they can operate over “the cloud.” Markets are everywhere and sales are everywhere so investments should be able to be everywhere as well. American politicians have been counter productive in trying to capture taxes from some of the biggest companies in America.

Michael brings the conversation back to China and their infrastructure. China has made a global plan to help counties boost their infrastructure. They are spending their own money to help gain trust and also smooth the flow of goods in and out of developing countries by building railways, airports and shipping ports. Most of the world trade growth is happening across the Indian Ocean because of the Chinese.

Next, Michael brings up country borders and the reservations citizens may have about immigrants. No country has gained more from accepting immigrants into their society than America Parag argues. Parag says that unfortunately people are acting more with their hearts rather than acting on the data. There are far more benefits to welcoming immigrants into societies as opposed to shutting them out. People talk about globalization doing us wrong. It is not. It is political governments that are failing. Policies in politics are the problem.

Michael and Parag finish up discussing the booming rise of Dubai, and how the city is a perfect example of infrastructure growing a city. Dubai has thought strategically about all their expansion, from their roads to their buildings to their education system. It’s a place that represents a leap in quality of life for people who are on the move and doing different things.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Supply chains
  • Connectivity
  • Cities vs. State
  • Chinese infrastructure growth
  • Trade
  • Trust among China’s neighbors
  • Territory borders
  • Globalization
  • Winners and losers in the 21st century
  • The idea of “not in my backyard”
  • Growth of Dubai
Direct download: 445.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel starts off reading an email from a listener asking, “Do all trend followers use spreadsheets alone to trade? Or do they also use charts for visualization? I am having a hard time trading using a spreadsheet alone and I tend to need to see a chart. It provides the visualization I need.” Michael responds saying “What does the visualization do? Are your trading decisions based on the price or visualization of a chart?” You don’t need charts or multiple monitors streaming at a time. That is not how the best traders trade.

For the remainder of the episode Michael leads with a presentation from Gregg Popovich, the head coach of the San Antonio Spurs basketball team. Gregg talks about organization, discipline, player relationships (between players and the coach and between players and players), and the importance of being comfortable enough in your own skin to take advice from others, among many other subjects. You can’t begin to execute a trading rule until you have sound philosophical grounding. It starts with the right mentality and imagination, and Gregg is a perfect example of this. There are countless lessons to be learned listening to Gregg’s presentation. His outlook is applicable to anything you could want to do in life whether it be starting a business, trading, or running a marathon.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Why cultivating your second string is so important
  • Foreign players vs. U.S players
  • Accountability
  • Importance of honesty
  • Having the same standards for everyone
  • Importance of humility
  • Execution
  • A different perspective on goal setting
  • Looking at the big picture
Direct download: 444.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Simon Black. Simon is an investor, entrepreneur and the founder of Sovereign Man. He has a travel perspective that has given him unique insights on freedom, making money, keeping as much of it as possible (and protecting it from the government whatever government that may be).

Michael starts off the podcast asking Simon, “I want to know your story. How did you go down this path? How did you start?” Simon’s journey started in the military. He went to West Point. Upon graduation he was commissioned as an Army intelligence officer and stationed in the Middle East around the time Bush was accusing Saddam Hussein of having weapons of mass destruction. As the U.S. was gearing up for war, it became abundantly clear that it was all a lie, and Simon realized that if the president would be willing to go to war over something that was so false, then what else would the government be willing to do?

Simon breaks down the idea of currency. He says that everyone should have physical cash money. There are different forms of money or “legal tender.” One form of currency would be U.S. government bonds which are used by large entities. Another type of money is banking accounts. That is what most of us use. 90% of the money supply is in banking accounts, otherwise known as in digital form. Most people have their money in a computer stored in a windowless building somewhere. Physical cash is another form of money. It is the money you see in your had. Those are three very different forms of money, however they all happen to trade at a 1-1-1 exchange rate. That could change at any point. Simon urges that everyone should have physical money at their disposal in the case that banks shut down our ability to withdraw.

Michael and Simon talk travel next. Modern transport technology has made travel simple and given people a unique opportunity to see different places and cultures. Simon makes the point that freedom is a state of mind, it isn’t necessarily attached to travel. Every country has a unique vantage point such as great health care or education. Simon talks about health care in particular and the cost differences in the U.S compared to certain places in Asia.

The thrust of today’s podcast is to point out that everyone should be responsible for his or her own security and safety. One should be sovereign over his or her own life, experience freedom and live independently. Challenge the status quo. Think outside the box, whether that be choosing your healthcare, profession, or where you want to live. Think differently.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Health care
  • Banking system
  • Government
  • Travel
  • Breaking the rules
Direct download: 443.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel reads Sam Hinkie’s resignation letter, former general manager of the Philadelphia 76er’s basketball team. His management strategy was stats driven. Sam talks about how critical it is to focus on process and not be fixated on the outcome. Process you can plan out and control, you can’t always control the outcome. The point Michael aims to make by reading the letter is not to show whether Sam was a good or bad GM. His wisdom is something we should all not just consider, but wisdom we should learn from.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Thinking about thinking
  • The importance of intellectual humility
  • The necessity of innovation
  • The longest view in the room
  • A contrarian mindset
  • A tolerance of uncertainty
  • Be long science
  • A healthy respect for tradition
  • A reverence for disruption
Direct download: 442.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Jesse Lawler. Jesse is the host of Smart Drug Smarts, a podcast that is centered around supplements people can take to augment brain function. He has an out of the box perspective on health, fitness and enhancing cognitive performance.

Michael and Jesse start the conversation off with the question, “What is healthy?” Some athletes that can perform amazing feats are actually destroying their bodies to get there, so are they really healthy? Mind and body can be at total odds when it comes to health. Jesse breaks open the idea of cognitive performance and where a good starting point is when trying to increase your performance. He says your brain is meant to do everything. It is a universal machine that does things that we are, and are not aware of. To improve performance of the brain, there are a variety of things one can do. He breaks it down into four categories: Mood, focus, creativity, and anxiety. Jesse goes in depth on different supplements you can take to improve your focus (in particular) such as increasing your dopamine.

Jesse and Michael talk about how Jesse rode his bike from the west coast to the east coast in about 5 ½ weeks. Michael asks “Why do you think you are constantly experimenting?” Jesse says there are a lot of things that you can’t get the gist of without going through the experience. He wants to continue to understand, and maintain his brains capabilities to keep up with the evolving world.

Jesse moves on to explaining what nootropic drugs are and the cognitive effects of them. He is not a doctor but has given himself an education over the last few years by immersing himself in these subjects and talking with field specialists such as doctors or pharmacists a couple times a week. Michael asks about jet lag and how to beat it with different techniques. Jesse says that one of the best ways to beat jet lag is by fasting until it is dinner time at your new destination. Overdosing on tea or coffee can be a good way to stave off the hunger if you choose to use this method. Another trick to help beat jet lag is taking particular weight loss drugs to help you stay awake until it is bedtime at your new destination. Lastly, Jesse talks about some of the more popular drugs on the market such as marijuana and ecstasy and his views on them.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive performance
  • Effects of caffeine
  • Augmenting brain function
  • Dealing with mood, focus, creativity, and anxiety
Direct download: 441.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel talks about personal responsibility. Michael brings in basketball references from the Boston Celtics and their head coach Brad Stevens. He goes into the accomplishments of Stevens as a coach and as a quant. Stevens coaching is all about numbers and probabilities.

Michael plays a clip from Chris Mannix of the Vertical Podcast with Brad Stevens. Stevens explains how he uses statistical analysis in his coaching and how the “best of the best” like to be coached. Most don’t care about a numbers to numbers speech but everybody wants to know how they can best play and attack situations. Michael circles the conversation back to trading markets and trading on the numbers. Mannix then asks Stevens if coaching is just coaching being on an NBA sideline as opposed to other sidelines? He says that the longer he has been a coach the more he has been able to take emotion out of the game and it has become a job. By the time a game nears the end he isn’t even thinking of the game, he is thinking of the next practice, and how he can make the team better.

Michael ends with reading interview questions that were asked to Stevens; “Is your calm demeanor a part of your coaching philosophy?” He says that his philosophy is doing 99% percent of the work behind the scenes and hopefully that is enough to prepare him for the next game. He is always thinking about the next play, therefore you will not see him doing cartwheels on the sidelines very often. Stevens is also asked, “How is the style of play at the professional level evolving?” He says the game use to be about height and weight as opposed to skill. The game is now being flipped around.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Process vs. outcome
  • Sports and trading analogies
  • Statistical thinking
Direct download: 440.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel, author of Trend Following, The Complete TurtleTrader, The Little Book of Trading, and Trend Commandments, introduces his podcast--Trend Following with Michael Covel. This is the first episode, the starting introduction, of the podcast. Want to get started in your trend following understanding? Receive a free trend following course to your home or office: www.trendfollowing.com/ecourse.

Direct download: 439.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel discusses scams and what can be learned from them. Any scam that takes place today, we have seen before. In the early 2000’s Enron was at the height of its game. Turns out they had a fake trading floor set up just to convince Wall Street they were real. At Enron’s peak, their company was trading at $90 a share. When it crashed, their stock traded around $0.50 a share. And that story brings us up to current day with the latest Enron.

Michael continues to read more feedback, but this time from a listener of his podcast seguing him into the current blowup of the pharmaceutical company, Valeant. Valeant’s share prices went from $250 to $30 in short order. Even as the stock was crashing people were buying the hype and false fundamental information. Michael reads from sources such as Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley, and Valeant themselves. He then connects articles from Enron’s press releases back in 2001 before their crash and press releases from Valeant in 2016. Quotes from both companies CEO’s have strikingly similar comments on their companies as events led up to their falling apart.

Bottom line, if you are in a stock that goes from $250 to $30…You screwed up. There is no reason for that except you. When the numbers say exit, you exit. Ego must be left out of your trading. Michael ends with excerpts by Steve Sjuggerud. Check your ego at the door, have a stop loss, and stick to your plan.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Ponzi schemes and scams
  • The Enron scandal
  • Valeant meltdown
  • Ego in trading
Direct download: 438.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Anders Ericsson. His new book is “Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise.” Starting around high school, Anders became interested in how he could best improve himself. When he got to college he studied how people could achieve above average performance. He did a study showing the number of digits average people could repeat back correctly. The average number was about 5-7 digits. After an hour of practice they were able to repeat about 20 digits correctly. With even more training one student was able to get 70 digits in a row. This showed Anders that the mind can improve with the right kind of practice. Performance is trainable and purposeful practice is key. One major component of successful practice is immediate feedback on whether you are accurate or not.

Michael moves onto a study Anders did on taxi drivers in London. They have to go through extensive training to drive the streets of London. They are average people, but train for many years to be able to pass this taxi driving test. After learning over 10,000 streets and different connections there brains actually changed. He compared bus drivers in London, who did not have to go through the same training, to the taxi drivers. The same changes did not occur in bus drivers brains like the taxi drivers. They did not have to master all the streets but rather just master certain routes. Michael asks, “If they stop their taxi driving profession, does the brain regress?” Anders says that yes, without practice your mind will revert back to the old state.

Next, Michael and Anders use Mozart as an example of nature vs. nurture. His father was a musician and taught young children how to play instruments. Mozart was able to learn many of the musical distinctions that he was famed for because he started so early, around age 3-4. Any child at that age is able to learn the things Mozart learned, however it is virtually impossible as an adult. This moves into the idea of brain plasticity. It is important to realize that you can’t push your child to learn longer than they want to learn for. About 30 minutes is their limit. Beyond that, they lose their capability for deliberate practice. Deliberate practice helps raise the bar and get you better than you were before.

The next example of extraordinary talent brought up are master chess players. They don’t look at pieces individually, but rather base their actions on pattern recognition. They see structure and see where attacks may be successful. Grandmaster chess players are able to play blindfolded and against 25 or so people simultaneously. These are skills that are acquired and practiced. Stephan Curry is also used as another great example of an extraordinary achiever. If you understand the practice an individual does then you can see their improvement over time. Michael asks, “Has anyone said that their improvement was easy?” Anders said that he has been studying this subject for over 30 years and about 50 people have said that improvement came easy, but after talking for a few hours, their answers change. Michael then asks about the validity of the idea that 10,000 hours makes you an expert. Anders says he hasn’t seen that 10,000 hours is a magical number. You need a lot of practice, but there are no magical boundaries. When people count the number of hours that they have done something, and it happens to add up to 10,000 hours, then that doesn’t make you an expert. For example, if you have driven 10,000 hours, that doesn’t make you an expert.

Lastly, Michael circles back to the importance of deliberate practice asking about the difference between youngsters and older people seeing the benefits of deliberate practice. Anders says that unfortunately most younger people that are so focused as a child in their performance don’t go on to have careers in the field they were pushed into. Those who chose and want to be in the sport they are in usually go on to continued success. Deliberate practice alone doesn’t make you successful. You need to have a sincere desire for what you are doing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Discipline and practice
  • Solo and group practice
  • Flow state
  • Social Motivation
  • The late birthday rule
  • 10,000 hours of practice
  • Nature vs. nurture
  • Brain plasticity
Direct download: 437.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Tom Bilyeu. Tom is the co-founder and president of Quest Nutrition. He is the consummate entrepreneur who went from running a successful tech company to starting all over and developing Quest Nutrition. He has created his own narrative for entrepreneurial greatness.

Tom started out as what he would describe as a “good employee,” with never questioning the system. He didn’t take high school seriously but when he started college he buckled down. He heard that the brain doesn’t stop developing until the age of 25 and that helped shape a large part of his 20’s. Watching ‘The Matrix” at age 22, he realize that he wanted to be in control of his own life. Around age 26 he met his business partners with whom he would start his first company.

In 2012 his tech company was named the 42nd fastest growing tech company in North America. Soon after that, he had a talk with his partners letting them know he wasn’t happy, wasn’t having fun anymore, and wanted out. His partners felt the same way, and they proceeded to sell their company at the height of their success. Quest Nutrition came out of the folding of their prior company. They chose to go into the nutrition business by asking themselves “How can we deliver value to people.” Tom and his partners were told over and over again by factories that they were not able to produce the product they wanted to make, and the factories were right. They ended up buying their own equipment and re-engineering it to produce a nutrition bar unlike any other on the market.

Tom says that the combination of unbelievably good tasting food coupled with horrific ingredients makes for the worst kind of drug. Sugar affects the brain just like dopamine. Evolution has instilled a need for sugar in our brains and has brought us where we are now. Tom spent a long time learning about, from a metabolic state, what is nutritious for your body. The “auto pilot thought process” is one thing that Tom really works with people on. He works with people to focus on what their subconscious is telling them to do, and decipher what is right from wrong.

Michael asks Tom to go into international regulations. He says that dealing with all the different regulations can make a person go crazy. He doesn’t think that we should legislate sugar or saturated fat out of people’s diets. People should be able to have free choice. Tom’s life has been based on mastering one baby step after another and accomplishing everything with discipline and practice. Whether you are trying to get better in leadership, finance, or in relationships, everything is a learning experience. The more you attack something the more it continues to get better.

Lastly, Tom talks about letting go of the need to be right. He got to a point where he built his self esteem around being right. He soon realized that, that was actually helping him move further away from his goals. He switched his belief system over to focusing on identifying the right answer faster than anyone. There are so many that just want to protect their ego with being right, but as soon as they learn to let that go, a whole world opens up.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Discipline and practice
  • The Quest belief system
  • Escaping the Matrix
  • Tom Bilyeu’s ultimate reading list
  • Being authentic
  • Obesity
  • Autopilot thought process
  • Letting go of being right
  • Reaching your true fans
Direct download: 436.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Steven Pinker. Steven is a Canadian-born American cognitive scientist, psychologist, linguist, and popular science author. He is Johnstone Family Professor in the Department of Psychology at Harvard University, and is known for his advocacy of evolutionary psychology and the computational theory of mind. He covers phenomena that have traditionally not been looked at scientifically such as: visual perception, war and peace, and differences in writing styles. He has authored numerous books with his most recent being, “The Sense of Style.”

Steven knew he was an atheist from the age of 13. He never had a big revelation because God was never a real part of his consciousness. However, his religious awareness as a young man helped to guide his career into using science, and science only in his research. He puts science as the decider of “what is.”

Michael asks, “How has human behavior been shaped by evolution.” Steven based his book, “The Blank Slate” around the idea that humans aren’t born with a blank slate. He says that to have the ability to analyze speech and comprehend speech you have to have something there at birth. If the mind has a built in structure, where did it come from? Steven argues it comes from evolution and natural selection. He uses a combination of cognitive science and evolutionary psychology to back up his theories. He also covers why there has been so much controversy surrounding the idea that we are not born with a blank slate and why our common sense so often clashes with our political conviction. One reason he offers is because many think the idea of equality means that we should be indistinguishable, essentially like clones. He argues that fairness should not be based on sameness.

Michael goes back to the blank slate concept and asks, “Are we born good or bad? And explain what you have learned throughout your career about the evolution of language.” Steven says we have some good and some bad. The brain is massively complex and layered. There is so much going on in the brain when someone speaks and when someone listens and retains the information. Eggs and sperm have about 70 mutations. That is how we have natural selection that makes someone run faster, see better, think faster, etc.

Next, Michael and Steven dive into the history of violence, where it came from and where we stand today. Steven says you can’t get an accurate view of violence from the news. They find the worst violence and promote it. The rate of homicides have plummeted over the years. There are far less wars going on now than in the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s and so on. Since the end of WWII there has been a steady decline. Civil wars have still occurred but they are far less plentiful than they use to be and death rates are also less than they use to be. Steven’s next book, due to be published in 2017, is a defense of science, reason and humanism as a source of aiding in morality.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Evolution
  • Natural selection
  • War statistics
  • Cognitive science
  • Evolutionary psychology
Direct download: 435.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel brings a different perspective to countries and cultures. He starts off reading an article by Simon Black, “Việt Nam will become one of the top expat destinations in the world.” Due to China’s growth in the last 10 years they can’t compete making cheap goods like they have in the past. That business is moving to Việt Nam. The lifestyle that you can achieve in Việt Nam for a moderate amount of money is amazing. They have high quality at an inexpensive price. They are making it easier for locals to earn more money and thrive. Things began changing in the late 1980’s when the communist government opened up and encouraged private business.

Michael moves on to talk about his recent trip to Myanmar (formerly Burma). It was colonized by the British, but in 1948 Myanmar declared their independence. Their borders were closed off for about 50 years after that. Around 2011 they opened the borders to foreigners again, and in 2015 they held their first elections. There are 50 million people currently living in Myanmar. Now, there is a buzz about the country that shows they are clearly moving forward. The ethnic diversity is immediately apparent, and the hustle for commerce is everywhere. People there are beautiful, friendly and energized. The lessons for all of us are there staring back at us.

Michael encourages everyone listening to get on a plane and go. Go travel. Capitalization in America has made starting anything nearly impossible. People and commerce in other countries have more drive and ambition to make something happen. Don’t let the system control you. The system is rigged. Michael ends with a clip from comedian George Carlin on government control.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Capitalization
  • George Carlin clip on “The American Dream”
  • History of Myanmar
  • Growth of Việt Nam
Direct download: 434.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Catherine Stott. Catherine is author of, “Hypnotrading: A practical guide to using hypnosis and NLP to improve your trading performance: Self-hypnosis and psychotherapeutic techniques for traders.” Catherine believes that hypnotherapy and neuro-lingustic programing can help traders defeat inner challenges and become more successful. She got started working with traders after helping a friend, who happened to be a trader. He helped her understand the world of trading a bit more throughout their sessions and this ignited her interest deeper. She has been helping traders for years but didn’t start HypnoTrading until 2014.

Catherine was working as a psychologist when a friend referred her to see a hypnotherapist. She started to see the hypnotherapist for stress relief in her work and personal life. She was intrigued by the therapy so much that she switched career paths and sought training as a hypnotherapist. Hypnosis is essentially being in a deeply relaxed state of mind. It is an open state of consciousness, but you are fully in control of your thoughts. The first time Catherine experienced hypnosis she found it incredibly relaxing, and thought “I can’t believe that just happened, why haven’t I done this before?” Catherine dives deeper in the different steps she goes through in her sessions to get people in that relaxed state.

When Catherine trained as a hypnotherapist, part of the training was in NLP. Hypnotherapy and NLP are two different practices buy when used together they can be very powerful. An example of using the two fields together would be to associate pain with a color or a shape. It gives the client a way to view pain in a tangible way. They are able to think about that pain as an object that can be picked up and taken out of their body.

Michael moves on to asking, “How do different trading styles play into how you treat patients?” Catherine explains that there are certain universal techniques in hypnotherapy. When it comes to traders, the goal is to find the right trading style that works for them. There are many methods of trading and people should find the one that fits their personality. For example, some people are not built to use a strategy with precise rules and vice versa, some are not cut out for the fast pace of day trading.

Lastly, Michael and Catherine dive into the idea of modeling and goal setting. Modeling is a process of looking at other people and what they do, and essentially modeling that. One way to change yourself for the better is to mimic others who are successful in the field you are trying to master. It is a way of seeing what your results will look like. Modeling helps refocus. The majority of people may not have the chance to get next to a great trader, but everybody can get close to those insights through the written word or videos online. Find people that reflect your values and the style of trading that you want to achieve. There are thousands of trading books out there; you need to weed out what will work for you. Break down what you want to achieve and how you are going to achieve it. Defining your goals and how you want to achieve them is key.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Stress vs. anxiety
  • Meditation vs. hypnosis
  • Being in a relaxed state
  • Negative self talk
  • Fear of success
  • Modeling
  • P-A-C-E-R
  • Luck and expectation
  • Defining goal setting
Direct download: 433.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel talks about shaking up the establishment, referring to Trump and the presidential race. He sees hope that the political establishment could take a hit and just maybe a dent in the political health of America could happen. He isn’t saying that he would get great legislation through, or solve world peace, but he might shake up the political arena and detour the agendas of some special interest groups.

Next, Michael leads into discussion of the lottery, banks, and government. The lottery has become one of the biggest cons by government directed at the lower to middle class. They have convinced people that playing the lottery is a form of investing for their retirement. Michael plays a clip from the Virginia state lottery. They found a Jim Cramer look alike to get people to think of investing as they talk about playing the lottery and saving for the future.

Michael moves into reading an article by Barry Ritholtz that was written in January of 2016 when the Powerball prize was around 1.5 billion dollars. He makes the point that Americans spend 70 billion dollars a year on the lottery which is more than they spent on sports tickets, books, video games, movie tickets, and music plus all types of apps, games and programs bought from Apple’s iTunes app store combined last year. Barry then asks the question, “Is investing gambling?” His short answer, “Your goal as an investor should be to eliminate as much of the element of chance from your process and like the house, stack the odds in your favor… How do you become the house? You understand the nature of risk, are comfortable with the idea of uncertainty, rely on long-term measures of valuation, use mean reversion as a guideline to unknown future outcomes, allow time to work in your favor, understand the impact of leverage, recognize the folly of relying on forecasts, consider all possible outcomes; including extremely rare black-swan events, and accept that some losses are inevitable.” Above all, he makes the point that even though you have full control over how you invest, you do not have complete control over the outcome.

Michael ends with the nonsensical idea of government achievement. He says that we need someone who leads by example rather than telling us what the next government hand out will be.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trump as President
  • Lottery and Powerball
  • Changing American politics
  • Getting something for nothing
Direct download: 432.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Bill Bonner. Bill is author of “Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster.” He has made a career out of skepticism. That skepticism started right out of college as he helped a friend start a grassroots organization, The National Tax Payers Union. There, he was able to get an inside look at government. It was during his lobbying for this grassroots organization that he saw the true motivations of politicians.

Bill and Michael start the conversation off talking about having too much of something, good or bad. Everything in the world, when you get too much of it, it is bad. Bill uses Germany as an example: When Hitler first got into power, his message to the people was more security. As Hitler kept gaining more power, the government took more control and things began to fall apart rapidly from there.

Next they talk about negative interest rates. There is a social contract being broken by the use of negative interest rates. Bill says the whole idea of work leading to output, leading to money, leading to investment, which leads to further output all falls apart with negative interest rates. Negative interest rates don’t stimulate the economy, they actually lead to people hunkering down and saving more money. This segues into the next topic of myth and reality. Myth plays a large part in society. Our conception of government is based on myth, and our idea of how government operates is far different than the reality of how it is actually run.

Michael and Bill move into discussing how internet has connected people and put information at everyone’s fingertips. However, it has proven too difficult for people to sift through all the information and find the wisdom inside it rather than the noise. Bill brings up a poll that was done by the National Constitution Center. The poll said that 41% of Americans are not aware that there are three branches of government. 62% of them cannot name what the three branches of government are, and 33% of them cannot name a single one of the branches. Americans can’t be shocked that a government doesn’t work the way it “should” work when they don’t even know how it “should” work in the first place.

Lastly, Michael and Bill talk about prediction and crashes. Since 1970 there has been seven recessions. Economists were able to predict none of them. Even in early 2008 when everything was crashing, not a single economist thought we were heading into a recession. This just shows how little the government basis their studies on facts but rather on human judgement. Bill says that unemployment is a great example. Unemployment rates aren’t subject to scientific analysis, they are subject to human analysis. The GDP growth rate is made up of the same kind of fictitious numbers and based on human judgment. It is more a measure of how quick people are going into debt not if they are better off in life.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Declining marginal utility
  • Unemployment
  • Negative interest rates
  • Myth vs. Reality
  • Government polling
Direct download: 431.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel starts the discussion off with Mark Zuckerberg and the virtual reality realm we are entering. There is now an infamous picture of Mark Zuckerberg walking down an aisle with a huge audience behind him hooked up to helmets. All audience members are in a virtual reality. Michael bridges the gap between speculative follies of the past, with the virtual reality bubble we are about to embark on.

David Harding and James Holmes wrote a book titled, “The Pit and the Pendulum: A Menagerie of Speculative Follies.” Michael reads an excerpt from the book, giving a historical narrative about how people have behaved over the centuries. People always get excited about something new, and that “something new” historically always seems to crater and crash. The chapter Michael reads from is titled “Basking in an Indian Summer: The Bombay Share Mania of 1865.” The excerpt relates to cotton exports during the American Civil War. Bombay saw massive profits in cotton and silver due to cotton exports being halted in America during the war. Due to the boom in the economy Bombay saw huge expansion in their commercial sectors. Investors were only focused on the short term rather than long term.

When the American Civil War ended the Indian economy hit depression. Banks went bankrupt and the housing market crashed. The Bombay commercial world went totally bust. This is only one of many speculative examples that are in “The Pit and The Pendulum.” History always repeats itself. All speculative follies go down the same path. The only difference is the name or market caught up in the mania. Whether it be technology, cotton, or tulips, it’s all the same. How do you protect yourself from the next big mania? Educate yourself and have a strategy in place.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bombay cotton market 1865
  • Bubbles and mania
  • Profiting from the speculation
  • Having a plan in place
Direct download: 430.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Jim Rogers. Jim is a famed American investor based in Singapore. He was co-founder of the Quantum Fund, and has authored numerous books. Today’s conversation is geared toward the central banking system and the direction Michael and Jim think the world’s economy is headed.

Michael starts the podcast off talking about negative interest rates and if that is a possibility in the U.S. Jim brings up a study published in 2007 that said, “We have the Federal Reserve, we have 1,000 of the most brilliant economists in the world how can we be wrong? How can people say that we are wrong?” Jim says that for the last 30 years the Fed has done just that. They have gotten just about everything wrong. Janet Yellen has been getting everything wrong since before she was even head of the Fed. She blames her blunders on the market being wrong or the public being wrong. According to Jim, every head of the Fed has been an academic and political hack.

Michael posits, “Everyone should be able to imagine another stock crash, we have had enough of them.” Jim says that the debt is staggering right now so when we have a crash it is going to be utter chaos. When we have extreme economic problems a war usually follows as well as someone coming in on a white horse to save the day. That white horse person will also cause more debt and make things even worse. This is the first time in history that government is actually out to destroy the people who have saved and set away for retirement. The middle and saving class has been destroyed before, but that was because of war or inflation. Jim says that it is mind boggling that the government’s solution to clearing up debt is to create more debt.

Next, Michael asks, “How do you see China right now?” Jim says that when they had their big market crash they chose to invest in the future with money they had saved. In America, we did the opposite. We chose to bail out the bureaucrats and make sure the rich didn’t go poor. The European and Japanese central banks have come out saying that they will practice unlimited QE funding. They will print unlimited amounts of money to solve their economic problems. Most do not question this because most people have no idea who or want the central bank is.

Lastly, Michael asks Jim what the best way is to prepare for potential problems that may unfold in the future. Jim says the first thing is to not listen to the news or what you may read on the internet. Stay with what you know and if you don’t think you know something, do nothing..

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Negative interest rates
  • Central banking systems
  • Market crashes
  • The impact of unintended consequences
  • Preparing for the future
Direct download: 429.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks to the timelessness of being a contrarian. He starts off sharing a recent email received. The email suggested Michael tone down the trend following talk and work with people to help find their calling in life. This email dovetails into an excerpt Michael plays of high school football coach, Kevin Kelley.

Coach Kelley is a contrarian thinking football coach. He is known for never punting and onside kicks after every touchdown. Coach Kelley ran the numbers and figured out the probability of winning with punting as opposed to going for it. He has had tremendous success from doing things differently and creating his own answers on the field.

Next Michael reads an article from Andy Staples, “The power of not punting: Why a college coach should adopt Kevin Kelley’s unconventional philosophy.” Andy Staples, a writer for Sports Illustrated, was curious about Coach Kelly and his unconventional coaching, so he visited one of Coach Kelley’s games. During that game, Coach Kelley had to give in and punt on one of his fourth downs. Andy asked, “How hard was it for you to do that?” Coach Kelley replied, “I didn’t really hate it at all. It is what it is if the situation dictates it is something that we have to do. It’s all about winning. It’s never been about anything else.” Coach Kelley’s players don’t win because they never punt and always onside kick, they win because the offense plays as if they are always going to lose. He turns the psychological tables on his opponents, and bases everything off of mathematical statistics. The math indicates that punting is actually the riskier choice.

Michael stresses that no matter how much fundamental information you think you may have, you are lying to yourself. The only thing that you can rely on in the markets is the price data. The only way to get ahead is to be a contrarian. Michael ends paraphrasing Ed Seykota, “Everyone gets what they want, win or lose. If you lose a lot you got exactly what you wanted, to lose.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Math in football
  • Thinking like a contrarian
  • Risk management
  • Fundamentals
Direct download: 428.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Michael Ellsberg. Michael is an American author, blogger and public speaker. Michael Covel and Michael Ellsberg met for the first time in Napa Valley at a Tim Ferris conference. Today they talk about Michael’s newest work, “The Last Safe Investment: Spending Now to Increase Your True Wealth Forever.” The book is about making money, being an entrepreneur, and giving insights that can applied today.

The two start off talking about entrepreneurism and dive deep into how people think about money. Michael, and his co-author Bryan Franklin, wanted to completely rewrite the script for how people think about making and spending money. Michael says the bottom line is to try and make your life as awesome as possible in every aspect. Most people want money for one reason or another. He has found that the three most popular reasons people want money is: happiness, freedom, and security. Michael always wanted to be a writer growing up. He used his savings to help pay his way to become a writer. Most save their money and figure that what they love can come later when they have enough saved up. The question is, “When do you want to start your passion?” When you retire? Or do you want to invest in those things you are passionate about now?

Michael E. then goes into how important the presence of meaningful friends are, otherwise known as your “tribe.” He says that it is important to travel and figure out where you want to settle down and live. When you nail that down you can start investing in learning about the place, people that live there and invest your time in making friends. Traveling and learning where you want to settle down has a lot to do with gaining critical self knowledge which, according to Michael E., is the greatest investment a person could make. When you are self aware you get far more happiness out of the money and time you invest in things. You aren’t wasting as much time and money experimenting, trying to figure out what you like.

Next, Michael E. answers the question, “What is the difference between a market skill and a super skill?” A market skill is any skill that you can sell directly, such as plumbing or marketing. Super skills are skills that can be taken across any job platform and are essential in any marketplace regardless of economic circumstances. Michael E. categorizes them into four categories: interpersonal, creative, technical and physical super skills. Different skills have different levels of entry. Public speaking is one super skill that they go into depth about. Michael E. says that if you learn how to speak publicly even semi well, you will be far above the rest of your competition.

One of the last topics discussed are the areas in your life that create happiness. Relationships, health and money are the three big contributors to happiness. Each time you spend money you should look at how that purchase will impact every area in your life. If you go to buy a meal you should look at how that will affect your health and if that bleeds into happiness in your relationships. Michael has found that all of these things are interconnected. When you look at things as a whole, spending money can be looked at as investing rather than spending frivolously.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Super skill vs. Market skill
  • Systemic spending
  • Cultivating meaningful relationships
  • Thinking three dimensional
  • Creating happiness in your life
Direct download: 427.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel speaks with Vineer Bhansali. It is Vineer’s second appearance on the show. He brings a world of experience to the subjects of behavioral finance and tail investing strategies. He believes strongly that sustained portfolio performance comes from expecting the unexpected and hedging both left and right sides of tail risks. Vineer’s firm, Long Tail Alpha, is based on exploiting values from the tails of the probability distribution and also exploiting how human behavior distorts the markets.

Michael starts the podcast off breaking apart Vineer’s white paper, “A Behavioral Perspective on Tail Risk Hedging.” Vineer says the way markets actually trade have very little to do with the idealized models that have been presented in the academic community. Those models are presented because they are easy to solve. All interesting things that go on in the markets are beyond the idealized scenarios. Vineer talks Michael through the idea of the “Three Investors.” His study is based on how people account for gains and losses. The study concluded that people are more adverse to losses than they are to gains, also people like security. Next, Vineer speaks to work done by Kahneman and Tversky that dovetails into his own studies. This work allows him to rationally explain the existence of tails in terms of very persistent behavioral biases.

Michael and Vineer comment on oil and how significant the price of oil has been in the last few years. Where does the behavioral aspects come into play? He says that both kinds of investors, rational and irrational, create market dynamics. He gives an example of a gambler that leaves the casino while he is up a lot, as opposed to the gambler that is down and keeps gambling trying to get it back. “You have people in this commodity market casino who are going in with a certain plan, but they can not execute on that plan.” He goes on to say that people who have a trend following plan are going to do very well. They can go short or long. Their portfolio’s tend to be more dynamic, and unless you know a whole portfolio you cannot make a rational decision. Michael says aggregation is the key word. You can’t look at a price for a hedge in isolation. That doesn’t do anything for anyone.

Michael then asks “What about the timing in Tail Risk?” Vineer says you have to be very open minded in how you construct a portfolio, and the timing relates back to the valuation. These concepts are well known in the finance world, they are just not widely practiced. Tail risk, hedging or insurance is what investing is all about. Michael ends with asking, “We all know everything we know about Oil, China and Rates could go in another direction. What will happen if your thesis doesn’t materialize? If things bounce back to the way they were?” Vineer says that at some point markets overshoot and his firm is set up for when that happens. He is always asking himself, “Where is the valuation? What signals are you getting? What objective framework and model can you build?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Is trend following mean reverting?
  • Tail risks
  • Tail hedges
  • Human behavior and biases
  • Importance of a dynamic portfolio
Direct download: 426.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Philip Tetlock. Phil is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” is about probabilistic thinking defined. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting.

Michael starts off asking, “Regular folks can beat the experts at their own game?” Phil says essentially that is correct. He started The Good Judgment Project in 2011. It was based around forecasting and was funded by the government. He was shocked by the amount of “regular” people he recruited for his study that were able to compete with, or do a better job predicting than professionals working for agencies such as the NSA.

Michael and Phil move onto discussing the Iraq war. They discuss what the actual probability may have been of Saddam Hussein having weapons of mass destruction. George Bush claimed that it was a “slam dunk” when clearly there was not a 100% probability of weapons of mass destruction being there. Michael asks, “When is society going to adopt more of a probability mindset?” Phil says that soft subjective human judgment is going by the way side. Pundits saying, “Someday this will happen” without any real substance, will come to a stop. As long as a forecaster can say, “This may happen in the future” then they can never really be held accountable for being wrong. Michael brings up the example of Robert Rubin. Robert worked for Goldman Sachs and was under Bill Clinton during his presidency. He was a great probabilistic thinker. Everyone loved him until the 2008 crash. Phil uses him as an example of even the best prediction people getting it wrong.

Bottom line, superforecasters look for aggregated data. They know there is interesting data laying around and they tend to look at crowd indicators heavily. The distinction between superforecasters and regular forecasters is their ability to start with the outside view and move to the inside slowly. Regular forecasters start with the inside view and rarely look at the outside view. Superforecasters also believe in fate less than regular forecasters do. When you highlight all the low probability events surrounding outcomes, such as the lottery, many chose to think the event was decided by “fate” or just “meant to be.” Superforecasters think in a way of “well someone had to win, and they did.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • What are superforecasters?
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Looking at aggregate data
Direct download: 425.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel profiles Jeremy Siegel. Jeremy describes himself as “The Wizard of Wharton.” His website claims that he is credited with contributing and expanding the great bull market of the last two decades. Jeremy is also bestselling author of “Stocks for the Long Run.”

Michael moves right into playing a few clips from appearances Jeremy has made on CNBC. The first clip has Jeremy outlining his predictions in early November 2015: The Dow will surpass 20,000, oil can’t go much lower, and the dollar can’t go much higher. His predictions are perfect examples of predictions without any substance. They have no timelines, or data to backup why he feels the way he does.

Excerpt #2 was filmed around December 13th. The Dow at that time was at 17,300. The S&P was at 2020. Jeremy moves right into more predictions and generalizations. He doesn’t say “buy at this time” and “sell at this time.” Jeremy proceeds to use words like “tremor” and “relief rally.” It is hard to have wrong predictions and forecasts when you use words that have generalized meaning.

Excerpt #3 is from February 8th, 2016. Jeremy had to back peddle because his November and December forecasts had not come to fruition. He admits to being too bullish…sort of. He blames his wrong predictions on the market not doing what the market was suppose to do. Michael weaves in his commentary throughout the clips. The podcast ends with one of Michael’s favorite classic songs from the 1920’s.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Predictions
  • CNBC Analysts
  • What is a bull and bear market?
Direct download: 424.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Angus Deaton. Angus is a British American economist. In 2015 he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize for his work in economic sciences on his analysis on consumption, poverty and welfare. Those topics go into one of the most hotly discussed issues in America right now, inequality. He brings some great data driven insights and angles to the discussion.

Michael starts the podcast off discussing the benefits of winning a Nobel Prize and how it opens up debate and reshapes topics. Angus agrees that the Nobel Prize does get conversations going and as an academic, it allows him able to reach a broader audience. Michael and Angus move right into discussing inequality. Angus says that in periods where there has been the most innovation, this is typically when there is the most inequality. Angus also quotes a famed economist saying, “Data is like meatballs. I won’t eat them when I’m out because I don’t know what is in them and I won’t eat them when I’m home because I do know what is in them.” When going through data from places like India, where about 1/3 of all global poverty resides, it is hard to tell whether the data is correct. For example, although there is a rapid rate of growth, the poverty level has not raised. Are poverty levels not moving because the aid money is going straight to the 1% or is it because the data is not correct? Angus says the data is easily skewed so it is hard to really get a read on what is going on.

Next, Michael and Angus discuss how arbitrary the idea of “the poverty line” is. It is hard to classify what poverty truly is. Angus likes to look at the subject as if everybody is poor, but some are just much poorer than others. Measuring poverty across time and place is an impossible thing to do. Poverty data can be skewed by various factors such as if the area being studied has government healthcare or public school systems. Michael brings up the emotional side of poverty next. Angus says that it is very possible to be happy and sad at the same time. Emotion isn’t cut and dry. He has found that not having enough money does have a large impact on your happiness. However, most day-to-day emotional happiness comes from having contact with other people and friends, not money. Money starts to affect your day-to-day interactions if you are so poor that you are not able to do certain things that allow you to spend time with friends and family.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Unemployment
  • Minimum Wage
  • Poverty
  • Economics
  • Money and happiness
  • The birth lottery
Direct download: 423.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off giving listeners perspective on the feedback he receives. Over the years Michael has received thousands of emails that have created insightful and thought provoking give and take discussions. He reads an email that came in recently on a fairly controversial topic. The listener talked about his disagreement with Yaron Brook in episode 183. He disagreed on the shared viewpoint between Yaron and Michael. The listener’s email also touches on unemployment, minimum wage, and government regulations. The email was extensive and Michael gives his feedback as he makes his way through reading it.

Michael furthers the discussion by moving into reading from an article titled, “The Case Against the Minimum Wage” by Daniel Bier. Daniel says that there is much we may not agree on, but when there are topics that economic professionals do agree on, we should take notice. Economists across the board agree that by raising the minimum wage we will actually increase unemployment. The article’s main premise is that the core value a young person gets from their first job is the life experience rather than the monetary gain. Working with a team, punctuality, and taking direction are just a few fundamental skills that can be taken away from a minimum wage job. These jobs create a track record for an individual that lets them move on to other higher paying jobs.

So many people miss the point: It isn’t about the money, it’s about the experience. Having exposure to minimum wage jobs at a early age has long term effects. Daniel Bier says that it is actually more about politicians trying to feel good than actually doing good. Michael finishes with a quote from Nobel laureate James Buchanan further touching on the ramifications of raising minimum wage.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Unemployment
  • Minimum Wage
  • Ayn Rand
  • American economics
  • The seen and unseen consequences of a law
  • Libertarianism
Direct download: 422.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel speaks with Steve Kamb. Steve is the author of “Level Up Your Life: How to Unlock Adventure and Happiness by Becoming the Hero of Your Own Story” and has built a career in the niche of Nerd Fitness. He gives great insight on how to reach a specific audience and gain a loyal following. He knew he was horribly mismatched in his career and had to make a drastic change. Not wasting much time, Steve moved to Atlanta and took a job making half the money and loved it. It was at this job where he started getting into fitness and creating a website to help others. His company, Nerd Fitness, soon turned into a full time job.

Michael starts the podcast asking, “What is your definition of a nerd?” Steve quotes Wil Wheaton, “A nerd is not what you love but how you love it.” He elaborates saying that you could be a comic book nerd, medical school nerd, Star Wars nerd, etc. Steve’s outlook on fitness is about keeping a healthy lifestyle while keeping your other passions alive. It took Steve years to get his fitness regime down. He knew there had to be more people that were struggling to find the right information when it came to fitness. Steve started writing about sound strategies to build solid plans to get on the right fitness path. He uses movie and comic book references to help get his clients motivated and relate more to what he is teaching.

Steve also started looking at his life, and his clients lives as if they were on their own “hero’s journey.” He calls it the “hero’s call to action.” This journey is cyclical. You go out and come back and it is never ending. He shares stories of superhero’s like Clark Kent/Superman or Indiana Joans/archeology professor. Regular men that go out time and time again on their hero’s journey, only to return back to reality after accomplishing what they set out to do. His book, “Level Up Your Life,” is about re-framing ones life in a hero’s journey type of way. Strength training, yoga, live action role playing, etc. could all be things that motivate you to get off the couch and start your own hero’s journey.

Michael and Steve finish up sharing tips on how to travel smarter. Steve says that when it comes to jet lag, what works best for him is exercising immediately after traveling. Also, buying the cheapest ticket can ruin the first few days of a trip by adding to your jet lag.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Traveling domestic and internationally
  • The hero’s journey
  • Marketing yourself
  • Marketing to a niche
  • What is a nerd?
  • Tailoring your fitness needs
Direct download: 421.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel discusses three topics: the idea of two Americas, crowds, and his recent Barry Ritholtz interview. Michael starts off reading from an article titled “Two Americas.” The article focuses on people who contribute, and those who do not. People who work and those who do not. The article disagrees with the notion that all incomes should be equal. Different choices lead to different consequences. Those who choose wisely have a greater degree of success and should not have their success taken from them because others chose unwisely. The article goes on to say, “Entitlement has replaced effort in American society.” Just because you went to college doesn’t mean you are entitled to a certain level of income. On the other hand, those that do not have an education or work hard to make something happen are also not entitled to a certain level of income. Achievers do not want a pat on the head or a fake handout. Free money doesn’t work. You need passionate effort for there to be a desirable end result. If the drive is not there then the result is there.

Michael then reads from a blog post by Seth Godin titled “The crowd, your work, and a choice.” Seth dives into crowd mentality. He says that the public would rather, “Watch a movie than read a book, stand in lines for the popular attractions…likes explosions, resolved plots and ample lighting…Crowds only care about fast, easy, cheap, fun, now and simple.” Crowds demand that they are told how much they will make and in what markets. When it comes to investing and trading there are no deadlines. Trends come and go, there is no timeline.

Michael moves on to discuss his recent interview in New York with Barry Ritholtz. He talks about himself and Barry as a piece of media and how media is becoming more individualized with the help of social media. There are so many outlets to get your name out whether it be your blog, podcast, or news column. All these places are just distribution outlets. Places like twitter and Instagram give you a platform to contribute value and feedback to people. It is now easier than ever to build a one man media conglomerate.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Two Americas
  • Crowd behavior
  • Marketing yourself
Direct download: 420.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Mebane Faber. Mebane is a noted author, blogger, and portfolio manager with Cambria Investment Management. His new book, “Invest with the House: Hacking the Top Hedge Funds” is out now. This is Mebane’s 4th appearance on Trend Following Radio. Michael and Mebane have a slightly different outlook on trading but they do align. The biggest similarity is that they both come at the markets from a quant way of thinking.

Michael starts the podcast off asking, “Why do some of the big name guys motivate you so much.” Mebane says he always loved investing. In his spare time during college he would explore finance. A fund manager named John Griffin, who was Julian Robertson’s right hand man, taught at Mebane’s school UVA. It was in this class that many famed hedge fund managers provided his first initiation. The managers would give examples of different kinds of research they would do. Mebane knew he would never have the resources to do that type of research, so he turned to studying the numbers instead.

Mebane’s new book is based on mimicking the trades of some of the most successful hedge funds. He says it isn’t too hard to identify the “Michael Jordan’s” of the finance world. The key, however, is to figure out who’s trades you could piggy back off of and be successful. You have to go into this believing markets aren’t efficient. Where do you find the best players? Mebane studied 10-12 managers that friends and colleagues suggested. The most obvious was Warren Buffett. Turns out, you still make amazing returns piggy backing off of Warren Buffett’s trades. You cannot trade futures in this way or trade shorts, you must be long only. Trading with this strategy, as opposed to buying straight into these big hedge funds, gets you away from paying huge fees and large taxes. In Mebane’s latest book he goes much more in depth into this topic.

Michael then goes into Twitter questions posted by listeners. The first question, “My market is too small? What should I do?” Mebane says there is a “home country bias” among people. People like to invest in their own markets. The Asian countries happen to have the worst of this bias. It is a terrible habit to have if you need proper asset allocation in your portfolio. You must look beyond your own country, be agnostic in your trading. Don’t let your emotions or irrationality rule.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Home country bias
  • Diversification
  • Different trading strategies
  • Finding the most successful hedge funds
  • Margin of safety
Direct download: 419.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off quoting famed trader Stanley Druckenmiller. Stanley shares his views on betting big and diversification. Michael expands on Stanley’s views by stressing how crucial diversification is to a portfolio’s success. You must be open to many markets to handle your risk management. And when markets start to go your way, you have to “bet the ranch.” When one market in your portfolio takes off you need to go big and make the most of it. This is where your profits will come from. Note: Stanley Druckenmiller had two big mentors in his life. One of the two influences was George Soros. The two have been business partners for years now and have made a fortune trading trends. These men do not tout themselves as trend following traders but Michael describes them as “kissing cousins” to trend following.

Michael then reads an article from Josh Brown titled, “Everyone is a closet technician.” In the article, Josh claims everyone is a technician. What is a technician? Josh defines them as, “Someone who cuts right to the chase and studies actual prices and behavior instead of puzzling over the causes of prices and behavior like everyone else.” He says that investors only pay lip service to fundamentals. Technicians find truth and meaning in price and the action that is currently happening. They respect the idea of sentiment. Sentiment is how valuations come to be. Prices change and with that the truth is constantly changing. Technicians do not waste their time with the “Why” question. Hindsight bias is a slippery slope. Josh says, “Fundamentalists will share their reasons with anyone willing to listen. The technicians will take these reasons with stride and focus on what is happening, not ‘why.’ The ‘why’ will always be much more apparent after the fact. After it doesn’t matter.” Price will do its thing regardless of what people predict. Michael doesn’t believe the people on CNBC throwing out predictions are technicians. Trend followers are the only people who fit the mold of what Josh describes in the article.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • What is a technician?
  • Diversification
  • Risk management
  • Trading off price
Direct download: 418.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Robert Carver. Robert is author of “Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems.” He got his start in finance working at AHL. Robert started with AHL in 2001 during his final year of college. It was at this time that he was introduced to quantitative trading and began thinking of finance in a systematic way. He later went back to AHL, working there from 2006-2013.

Robert doesn’t tout systematic trading as the only way to trade. He says there are some great traders out there that aren’t systematic traders. However, the majority of people need a system to be successful. So how does Robert define a system? He says a system must be objective, repeatable, and transferable. If you can’t get the same results using a different person then it is not a true system. The rules must be transferable from one person to another and the results must be objective and repeatable. Most do not have a good understanding of statistics, and they get confused in thinking that the more complicated a system is, the better it must be.

Robert and Michael move on to discuss behavioral finance, prospect theory and the difference between trend following and high frequency trading. A high frequency trading system is harder for traders to meddle with than trend following systems. The trading time frames are much shorter in high frequency trading which lessens the opportunity for human intervention. Most traders fail because of their own meddling. If you can avoid the temptation to change your system then you will be more profitable in the long run.

Working for a company like AHL would have been interesting to see from the inside during 2008. Michael asks, “What were you seeing from the ground in 2008? How did that change you and how you viewed systems?” Robert says it showed him that people truly don’t know what is happening or going to happen. Systematic traders, including himself, were able to make money because their systems saved them. When their systems saw markets going down, stops helped them exit trades and even go short in some cases. This is where all the money was made. Robert does say there are rare times you should intervene with your trading system. For example, he was forced to modify one of his systems when he found out there was going to be a coup in Thailand and the currency was going to be suspended. It’s not that he thought he could forecast what the price was going to do better than the system, but he did know trading that market was going to be impossible. Robert says there has been maybe three other times when he has had to intervene with his system. They are rare and extreme circumstances.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Unpredictable risk vs. Predictable risk
  • Systematic trading
  • High frequency trading vs. Trend following trading
  • Black swans
  • When to intervene with your system
  • 2008 crash
Direct download: 417.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel talks prediction. He opens with an excerpt from Seth Godin on how he thinks 2016 will unfold. His predictions are based on events that have always happened and will always happen, poking fun at the idea of having a “crystal ball look” into the future.

Michael moves on to market timing and reads an excerpt from The Institutional Investor titled, “Market Timing is Back in the Hunt for Investors.” The article states that market timing can be done correctly if you use a combination of trend following and contrarian views. Michael disagrees with the article stating that you need diversification. You can’t pick one stock and try and predict the top or bottom. Making that kind of bet on one market will bankrupt you. You need a portfolio of diverse markets so your winners can pay for your losses.

Michael then plays three clips from Daniel Kahneman on overconfidence, playing odds, and why we make the choices we do when spending money. Most of what we read in the paper is about overconfidence. People put a lot more weight on negative events then on positive ones. However, many decisions people make are optimistic. Kahneman says it is good that we have a lot of optimism in society. Unfortunately, over confidence and loss aversion seem to work in opposite directions. Most do not know the odds when they take risks. People save and borrow at the same time. Investors tend to view each stock they buy as an individual account rather than part of a bigger picture. These are just a few examples of how society as a whole is generally narrow-minded. Kahneman shows how intricately trading and psychology are linked together throughout the three clips. Michael finishes up the podcast with Ed Seykota singing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Diversification
  • Seth Godin’s 2016 predictions
  • Market timing
  • Understanding psychology in trading
  • Pitfalls of overconfidence
Direct download: 416.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Peter Gray. Peter is an American psychologist who currently occupies the position of research professor of psychology at Boston College. He is also a well known critic of standard learning systems, and calls himself an evolutionary developmental psychologist. He studies why children are the way they are by asking questions like: Why are children so playful? Why are they so willful? Why do children do what they do?

Peter starts the podcast off saying, “There is an issue with the resilience of young people today.” Since the 1950’s there has been an increase of psychological problems among youth. Counselors are being flooded with trivial issues that in earlier years students would have taken care of themselves. Roommate issues, bad grades, breakups, etc. are a few examples of issues students are now deciding they need to see psychotherapists for. It’s not that people are biologically different than previous generations, it’s that our world has become radically different than the past. Children used to spend a lot more time away from adults, where they have to make their own decisions. They used to learn how to deal with bully’s on their own or getting lost and having to find their own way home.

Peter argues that as long as we are overly protective of young people, they will never grow up. Kids need to have the time and opportunity to get out in the world and figure out what they really enjoy. We aren’t letting children experiment, take risks and fail. Even sports have been taken away from the kids. Adult directed sports don’t let kids have creativity to solve their own problems. Children learn the most from playing with other children and taking adults out of the equation. Kids who are “play deprived” have real social consequences. Peter shares an experiment done with young monkeys. One group of monkeys got to play with other monkeys their own age, the other group of monkeys were only around their parents, not other adolescents to play with. The ones who were not able to play were socially incompetent. They would either get overly aggressive or nervous around others their own age. Over the past 50 years there has been a continuous decline of play between young children. Hence, you can see the rapid increase in social and emotional disorders among youth. Michael and Peter finish up discussing ways of implicating free play back into society.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Hunter gatherer cultures
  • Self-reliance
  • Evolution of development in youth
  • Pros and cons of video games
  • Ways of implicating free play back into society
Direct download: 415.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off talking about goal setting for 2016. He reads a 100 day fitness regimen for 2016. The challenge clearly lays out what is expected, and has concrete rules in place. In contrast, he plays a clip form CNBC with a headline that reads, “Stocks to buy and hold for 50 Years.” Michael tears their predictions apart. He says betting on others “current flavor of the day” stock picks are not how you want to plan your next 50 years.

“Top Stock Picks from 2016” is the next article Michael reads from. “Pro Michael Farr shares his best bets for the market next year including oil stocks, healthcare and consumer staples.” Farr starts off by giving an overwhelming amount of fundamental data to back up his stock picks. In the middle of giving his fundamental data however, he acknowledges that he does not have a crystal ball (and is guessing). He then goes on to guess oil prices will be higher rather than lower three years from now. Michael uses his statement as an example of prediction without foundation.

Michael moves on to diversification. If you trade in the direction of the stock pickers he brought on today, then where is your diversification? Research has shown that you need diversification. If you put all your money into Facebook or Chevron, as his market guru examples have told you to do, then where will you be in 10 years if those companies go the wrong way? Put together a diversified portfolio with rules for entering and exiting. Know how much you are going to trade. Have a plan in place so you can be successful.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Diversification
  • Goal setting for 2016
  • Crystal ball prediction
  • The importance of rules in goal setting
Direct download: 414.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Ron Friedman. Ron is an award winning social psychologist that specializes in human motivation. He is author of “The Best Place to Work: The Art and Science of Creating an Extraordinary Work Place.” His book consists of over 1,000 academic studies that have been boiled down.

Michael and Ron start talking about factors that contribute to employee dissatisfaction. Ron says there are three main needs that we, as humans, need fulfilled: Competence, relatedness, and autonomy. There is clear evidence showing that when you have happy workers, you have a much more productive company. Free snacks and coffee, for example, make workers feel more at ease and productive in their workplace. Michael then asks, “How do you define a ‘workplace’.” Ron says that work use to be just confined to an office. Now a workplace could be anywhere you have a cellphone connection. Michael then asks, “How do you create success in the workplace?” Giving employees the opportunity to fail is one way to create success. However, it is the risk taking chances that are encouraged, not failure due to incompetence or laziness. Failure helps you learn and to improve for the next time. That is how you get a creative and innovative team. Getting in the habit of physically writing down what you learned from your failures is a great exercise to help you move forward and grow.

Michael and Ron then move on to the idea of flow in the workplace. Flow is the moment where you are so enthralled with the work you are doing that you forget time. Flow is more common in work then we realize. Video games are a great example of providing a flow experience. Video games give us immediate feedback, immediate recognition, and they provide progressive difficulty. Unfortunately most work environments are structured opposite of this thinking. 80% of people are not engaged at their work. Not being properly challenged is one reason for lack of engagement.

Michael and Ron talk about actionable steps to make a workplace better. Ron says that our physical surroundings affect our mindset greatly. Ceiling height affects your level of creativity, and personalizing your work space makes you more comfortable. He discovered that employees that sit by a window focus better and do better at their job. You can predict how satisfied employees are by the amount of daylight they are exposed to. Afternoon naps are another great tool. We have a biological need for rest that is just as pressing as our need for food or water. If we re-stock our brains with a 20 minute nap, it increases productivity. On the same note, the food you take in and how much you exercise affects how you think. It puts you in a better mood, helps you collaborate better with others, and go home feeling more satisfied. This is critical to employees long-term engagement. Michael and Ron finish up asking “How do you see the workplace unfolding into the future?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Flow in the Workplace
  • Creating a good work space
  • Disconnecting from work after hours
  • Creating balance in your life
  • Importance of exercise and naps
Direct download: 413.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel begins with a clip from the creator of the psychological concept of flow, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi. The first question Mihaly asks is, “What is the meaning of happiness? If each one of us is responsible and in control of our happiness, then how do you obtain happiness?” People feel the most happy when they are able to express who they really are. When people express their strengths, they are able to say, “Yes, this is who I am.” It makes life suddenly matter and creates happiness. Mihaly came up with the term “flow” from people he would interview and study. When they would describe being truly happy, they would describe the feeling as being carried by a current and floating along.

Mihaly brings up a personal experience from fighting in WWII. He said when people lost their property and personal belongings, most would crumble. This is when he became interested in the differences between people who were able to be strong internally as opposed to those who needed to lean on society and what it could provide for them. He says, “Everyone is the master of their own destiny and should not allow themselves to be pulled by the strings of fortune or fame.”

Mihaly then goes into how to gain flow in your own life. The first step is to be totally focused on an intention. How can you organize your life so you can have that focus everyday? Flow rarely just happens. You have to work at it and prepare yourself mentally, but you can get to the point where you don’t have to think about what you are doing. It just flows naturally. Mihaly uses surgeons and rock climbers as examples. Both disciplines require great concentration and muscle coordination. Once you are in the zone, you aren’t aware of anything else such as being a father, husband or what you are having for dinner. You are there simply as a surgeon or rock climber, present in the moment, flowing from one task to another in order to accomplish the end goal.

Michael then goes on to play another clip from Csikszentmihalyi where he talks about the “struggling artist.” He makes the point that you don’t have to be tortured to be creative. He goes into a study he did that showed extraordinary people mostly come from lower class or upper class families. He found that people who came from a fairly comfortable childhood didn’t seem to find the need to stretch and challenge themselves. Michael brings it all together with a thought provoking excerpt from Alan Watts.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • What is flow
  • How does flow happen
  • Dealing with worry
  • Addiction to thoughts
  • How to obtain happiness
Direct download: 412.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Dr. Jason Williams. Jason is author of “The Mental Edge in Trading.” While going to medical school Jason fell in love with the brain and psychiatry. He was fascinated with figuring out all the different ways the brain worked. While finishing his psychiatry degree at John Hopkins he started working on a research project giving psychology tests to traders. The goal was to see if they could find any common themes among traders and how they think during trading. There are many similarities and he has built up a side business helping traders get in touch with their mental game.

Jason uses a test called the NEO PI-R. He explains the differences between the NEO PI-R and other personality tests such as Myers Briggs. He says that if you take Myers Briggs, and take it again a week later, the results are different 50% of the time. Myers Briggs gives extreme generalizations. It simply says if you are an extrovert or introvert and doesn’t go much deeper. Jason brings up horse jockeys and basketball players as examples. You can be tall, but not tall enough to be a pro basketball player. On the same note, you can be short, but not short enough to be a horse jockey. Looking at the extremes is critical. You need to look at not just if you are tall or short, but actually ask, “How tall are you? How short are you?”

“Once I know my personality, then what?” Jason says you need to ask yourself: What are my traits? Where am I on the scale? How can I use these to my advantage? How are they getting in my way? The NEO is a 5 factor model; neuroticism, extroversion, openness, agreeableness, and consciousness. Each trait has six sub-traits. Jason goes into depth with examples for all of the personality traits. For the most part, everyone has a personality and is unique. Sometimes the test will show you some “A-ha” surprise moments that give you a little more self-awareness. However, most people are in the middle of a personality trait scale. According to the laws of evolutionary psychology you don’t want to be too high or too low on the scales. It could drown out the logical or rational side of the brain.

One common thread Jason found between traders was that most have very low anxiety levels. Knowing when you are feeling anxious in the markets but not having the anxiety be so overwhelming that you are not executing correctly is important. Anxiety is what pushes you on and is somewhat of a barometer. The successful traders are able to adapt a trading strategy to their personality. He says it took his father, Larry Williams, some time to realize that it was better to create systems himself and let others execute. Sometimes it is better to adapt to your personality than try and change it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Using your personality to your advantage
  • Psychology of trading
  • What is the NEO PI-R test?
  • Why anxiety is important in trading
  • Commonalities among traders
Direct download: 411.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael starts off discussing his travel. One of his stops in early December was New York City to meet up with a few legends, one of them being Larry Hite. He talks a bit about their lunch conversation and how Larry has climbed the ladder of success. Larry paints the picture that he was just an average Joe from Brooklyn, and his success is fully obtainable if the right desire and drive is there.

Today's subject on Trend Following Radio goes along the lines of the rest of his conversation with Larry Hite. It’s all about the data. Michael makes it clear that his career would not exist if he did not have the opportunity to dig into the trend following data. You see all types of trend following traders up in the same months and down in the same months–that means something. Doesn’t matter why it happened, just that it happened. Further, many make the mistake of not caring about the psychological. You can have the best system under the sun, but if you don’t have the psychological toughness to carry it out then the system does not matter.

Michael goes on to read from an article out of The Washington Post titled, “Jeff Samardzija just proved athletes would be foolish to pick NFL over MLB.” America’s favorite sport is football, hands down. The dream of just about every father in America is for his son to play professional football. However, all data says to stop right now and turn your focus to baseball. The article states, “The top 30 contracts in the history of team sports – ranked by total compensation – all went to baseball players.” When you compare average players in the MLB with top players in the NFL, the MLB still comes out on top. “Through this season, [Calvin] Johnson will have collected $113,816,086 in earnings, making him one of the wealthiest non-quarterbacks in league history. Samardzija, by virtue of the five-year contract he just signed with the San Francisco Giants, is guaranteed to have earnings of $122,725,000 – and have another chance to dip into the till in 2021, when he’ll turn 36.” Mike pulls the article back to trend following showing that trend following numbers have made it and persevered through ups and downs. It may not be the most widely known strategy, but the data is real.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The success of Larry Hite
  • Baseball vs. Football
  • Trusting the data
Direct download: 410.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Thomas Sterner, author of “The Practicing Mind.” Tom was in the same career for over 30 years when he decided to make a switch. He self published the first edition of “The Practicing Mind,” and as it snowballed into a phenomenon, publishers started knocking at his door for wider distribution.

This is about practicing focus and learning to calm your mind. Not an easy task in today’s world with media constantly telling us we are incomplete in what we are doing. People incessantly crave closure, but closure is not always the answer. Tom says that immersing yourself in something that is ongoing puts you in a place of “being.” People are always trying to complete the next level, but being in a state of constant expansion is the best state to be in. He says that even the process of writing books does not have a beginning and an end. He looks at it as an ongoing process. When one book ends, then you can move on from saying what you needed to say and move onto the next phase of what you want to be said. Tom shares a personal story about becoming a musician. For years he had felt inadequate as a musician. It took some time but eventually he figured out that he had accomplished many milestones throughout his career but because he had a limitless ability to expand and grow as a musician, he would never reach the state of perfection he envisioned. Almost in an instant, his frustration and negative thoughts about his accomplishments washed away.

The importance of repetition is Michael and Tom’s next topic. Your brain responds to repeated action best. This can vary from swinging a golf club over and over again, to how you meet people and interact with them. Tom says, “Attention combined with intention is the goal.” Your process and repeated practice is what makes achieving a goal feel so good. Anything you can snap your fingers and have doesn’t feel nearly as rewarding. He says that “Your perception of what good is and how good you can get is ever changing.”

Lastly, Michael and Tom discuss multitasking and living in the moment of now. Tom says that the way we envision multitasking doesn’t exist. When you think you are doing a bunch of different things simultaneously, you are not. The brain is operating at higher speeds but we are not letting our brains concentrate in one area for a long amount of time so in consequence, our brain is atrophying. We are losing that part of our mental game. Slowing your mind down brings clarity and thought. Secondly it connects your mind to what you are doing. If you are just reacting to whatever your mind is creating than you have no control over what you are doing. Mindfulness is not something that can be mastered. You have to constantly work at it just like you would never say “I have mastered fitness so I don’t need to work out anymore.” It is a constant practice. The moment you catch your mind running off is when you start training your brain. If you can recognize yourself chasing your mind then that is being aware of where it is going. Mike says, “It is like an organized treadmill that everyone is on. There is this lack of awareness among people that they are not in control.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Attention combined with intention
  • Non-judgment
  • Perils of multitasking
  • Controlling your mind
  • Constant media chatter
Direct download: 409.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel starts off with a short clip from Star Wars. Michael notes that Yoda and the force have unexpected connections with trend following. He then recounts a story that happened to him a few weeks ago where he feels “the force” was involved. While he was waiting to take a red eye to Tokyo with his parents a man asked if he could share the power outlet he was using. That man happened to be one of the world’s most famous computing pioneers. Michael agreed to share the outlet if he could take a selfie with him. It was a weird serendipitous moment that Michael attached “the force.”

Michael goes on to read from an article titled, “Meet David Harding: The Man Behind Models that Beat the Market,” published in The Australian Financial Review. The article highlights Harding’s accomplishments and views on trading. Harding stresses in the article that the only reason systematic trading has gotten big over the years is because it works. Harding’s company, Winton Capital Management, goes completely against the efficient market hypothesis and he has actually made massive money going against the theory. David goes on to say that investment management is an internal psychological war with yourself. You constantly doubt yourself but the challenge is rising above that self doubt and sticking with your system. If you allow every emotion to be built into your system then you do not have a system at all.

“Over-fitting and It’s Impact on the Investor” by the Man AHL Academic Advisory Board is Michael’s next interest. Over-fitting is finding patterns that aren’t actually there. It is a common phenomenon in science as well as trading and other fields of study. Analyzing a companies culture is a good way to produce less over-fitting results. Michael quotes different view points regarding the concept of over-fitting, finishing up with inspirational quotes by NBA player Kevin Garnett and Christopher Hitchens focused on “making it happen.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Star Wars and “The Force“
  • Efficient Market Hypothesis
  • Over-fitting in trading
  • Rising above self doubt
Direct download: 408.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael interviews Dave Huss. Dave discusses his transition from marketing consultant to entrepreneur. Formerly Dave did consulting work for paid advertising and now has transitioned into t-shirt design and sales (Michael notes that famed trader Salem Abraham had considered the t-shirt business before trading). He has been able to grow his business quickly due to a website called www.teespring.com. This website allows him to order shirts on-demand without any out of pocket expenses.

Dave comes at t-shirt sales in a trend following manor. One out of every ten shirts that he puts out will be a big winner. He makes it clear that it is very important he has a system. He limits his cost to $20 per shirt for advertising. If he doesn’t get a positive response from his $20 advertising push then he stops. He lets the market decide which t-shirt designs are worth pursuing. He has put out 500+ designs just this year. Six out of ten times he sells zero shirts. Three out of ten of those shirts sell 20 or 30 units and he breaks even, but one out of ten shirts will sell over 1,000 units. He never knows which will be the home run and which designs are going to be the duds.

Dave stresses how online marketing has become more and more a part of our lives. You have to participate in online marketing if you are going to have any kind of business these days. You find your most passionate fans in your business and hit them at the right time. You can’t put your head in the sand and think your business is going to make it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Contract work vs. Entrepreneur
  • Niche markets
  • Online marketing
  • Importance of a system
  • Survivorship bias
Direct download: 407.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel features Larry Hite. Larry is unquestionably one of the founding fathers of systematic trend following. In 1981 he founded Mint Investments and by 1990 it was one of the largest trend following funds in the world. At the same time he formed partnership at Man group, which became wildly successful as well. In 2000 he decided to go another direction, focusing on proprietary trading and research, founding Hite Capital Management. Currently, Larry is partnered at ISAM with his long time colleague Stanley Fink.

Throughout today’s podcast Michael pulls quotes and excerpts straight from Larry’s chapter in “The Little Book of Trading.” Quotes range from probability advice to compound interest and one or all of them are certain to spark certain “Ah-ha” moments. Michael starts with Larry giving advice on the notion of being wrong. Larry stresses that being wrong is ok. He was wrong often and always built the possibility of being wrong into his models. He would ask himself, “How much can I afford to lose?” And work his risk in from there. Hite found that even having perfect knowledge of an end of year price wouldn’t guarantee riches. His research proved that you could only bet with 3:1 leverage on a stock, even if you had absolute knowledge of the stocks year end price, because you can’t predict the path a market might take getting there. Respecting leverage is key. Michael then brings up a dating story Larry shared about probabilities.

Michael then goes into Larry’s risk management. He stresses, “Make sure you are as prepared as possible. You can’t know everything but you can certainly be prepared.” Larry always starts from an assumed position of ignorance. You have to know what you don’t know. If you know what the worst possible outcome can be from the outset then you are starting with a great advantage. Mike finishes with one last excerpt from Larry taken from a paper titled “Life is a Bet.” In this excerpt Larry outlines why life is just a serious of bets. Some are large and some are small. Some seem trivial and some seem to have far greater impact on our lives. However, those trivial bets can quickly become paramount. Never discount a decision. It could be the one that makes or breaks you.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Respecting leverage
  • Thinking in terms of odds
  • Being wrong is OK
  • Getting the odds on your side
  • Risk management
  • Life is a series of bets
Direct download: 406.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Didier Sornette. He is Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich. He is also a professor of the Swiss Finance Institute, associated with both the department of Physics and the department of Earth Sciences at ETH Zurich. He has worked on the King effect, a theory used to predict economic bubbles. Didier also set up the Financial Crisis Observatory in October of 2008. He brings an interesting perspective to financial crisis’s, and bubbles.

Didier first realized his fascination with financial bubbles back in 1989. He received a grant to try and solve the equation of prediction. Didier goes on to discuss the different theories that stemmed from his research. A few years later, when the housing crisis hit the U.S., he founded The Financial Crisis Observatory. He founded it as a psychological response to the discourse he had with the markets. People didn’t have a clear view of what was happening. Nobody seemed to know how it happened, but to Didier it was so obvious and natural that the crisis occurred. He wanted to help inform people better with his observatory by showing concrete steps that lead to the housing collapse and other crashes that came before it.

Michael and Didier then go into discussing black swans. Didier does not believe in black swans because they relate to “surprise events.” He says that crisis’s are actually not surprise events at all. They can be expected and are human related. Instead, Didier believes in a notion he calls “Dragon Kings.” His theory is called Dragon Kings because a King is a special person in a country, and dragon means of unique origin. Dragon Kings is how he describes his version of, “surprise events.” Michael and Didier move onto talking about how the world is out of equilibrium. The world is consistently battered with surprises therefore the equilibrium is always off. A lot of economists refuse to acknowledge this and policy makers are not well educated on the subject. Lastly they talk about Didier’s financial bubble experiment. Didier then goes into his background in physics saying it gave him tools to look at things outside the box. Nature doesn’t function in disciplines just like our minds do not work in silos or disciples.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The adaptive market hypothesis
  • Dragon Kings vs. Black Swans
  • New economy syndrome
  • Predictive markets
  • Finite singularity
  • Equilibrium of the world
Direct download: 405.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael starts today’s podcast reading the biography of bestselling author Napoleon Hill. Napoleon was born in 1883 and died in 1970. He is most known for paving the way for the new thought and personal success movement with his book, “Think and Grow Rich,” which has become one of the best selling books of all time. Its premise is to help people realize they have the power to create success within themselves by way of conscious and unconscious thought. His message is straightforward, pragmatic and clear.

For the remainder of the podcast Michael plays a presentation by Napoleon. The presentation is centered on making a goal and how to use certain tools to achieve that goal. Napoleon starts off by explaining the power of motives. He says you have no right to ask yourself or anyone to do something unless you give an adequate motive. If you give someone a good enough motive to buy something from you or give yourself a a worthwhile reason to achieve a goal you can sell or accomplish anything. You can also trick your mind to believe anything by repetitive action. If you have faith in what you want to accomplish you will accomplish it. On the same note, faith without action is dead and faith without believing is dead. Napoleon believed that 98%-100% of people sell themselves short because they do not believe in themselves. He says, “The power of thought is the only thing humans have absolute control over.” By repetition, thought, and action you can educate your brain to pick up only the vibrations related to what you want. He stresses that you must make sure your subconscious mind knows you are the boss.

The power of motives, thought, and faith in yourself all goes into being able to create and carry out a plan successfully. Napoleon says to write out your major objective in life and give it a timeline. Make sure it is clear and precise. Keep your major purpose to yourself. Your actions speak for themselves, and the envy of mankind can slow you down. Also, leave your plan flexible. Nobody can put limitations on you except for yourself. With that being said, acknowledge your weaknesses but don’t let them overtake you. If you keep your mind positive, it becomes greater than all the negatives.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Conditioning your unconscious mind
  • Setting goals
  • Laws of nature
  • Vibrations of thought
  • Using your greatest asset
  • Individual power
Direct download: 404.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Barbara Fredrickson. Barbara is a professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She is the Kenan Distinguished Professor of Psychology, and the Principal Investigator of the Positive Emotions and Psychophysiology Lab at the University of North Carolina. She is a social psychologist that conducts research in emotions and positive psychology. Her main work is related to her Broaden-and-Build Theory of Positive Emotions which suggests that positive emotions lead to novel, expansive or exploratory behavior, and that over time these actions lead to meaningful long term resources such as knowledge and social relationships.

The podcast starts with Michael asking, “When did this fascination start with you?” Barbara explains that she has had a curiosity with emotional behavior all her life, but it was in college when she realized that almost all research was centered around negative emotions. She began being influenced by evolutionary science, neurosciences, and behavioral changes that occur with emotions. She sees her job as figuring out why positive emotions matter, and why they are important. All emotions have specific action tendencies whether negative or positive. She believes that positive emotions broaden our horizons and negative emotions have values that are much more narrow and specific. Positive emotions bring awareness. They help us become better versions of ourselves. Barbara goes on to explain that it’s not the intensity of positive emotions that are important, it’s the frequency. They are like waves, they arrive and then dissipate. Positive emotions don’t typically have as powerful of moments as negative emotions and that is why Barbara believes they have eluded the interest of scientists for so long.

Michael then brings up Barbara’s work with “the undoing effect.” Barbara expands on this hypothesis by saying, “It first started when other scientists looked at the physiological signature of emotions.” The undoing effect counters the current notion that negative emotions have a signature and positive ones do not. The study showed that positive emotions actually act as reset buttons to your negative emotions. Lastly, Barbara helps listeners look at love through the lens of an emotions scientist. She explains that when we share positive emotions with multiple people it is more effective than when we experience that same emotion individually. She also points out that love is made up of micro moments of positive experiences rather than long lasting ongoing experiences.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Inner-experiences and well being
  • The undoing effect
  • Positive negative ratio
  • The body’s definition of love
  • Depression
  • The idea of soul mates
  • Emotional connections
Direct download: 403.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel features a presentation by Charles Faulkner. Charles is a trader, mentor and author who has been featured in Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizards” series. Faulkner is an international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals, teams and organizations, and applying the latest research in cognitive neuro-science and linguistics. He has appeared on this podcast five times and has received more positive feedback than any other guest.

Today, Charles’ message is about goals. It is about setting large goals that are above and beyond your everyday concerns. Goals that give your life purpose. Charles comes at this topic in a pragmatic and scientific way. He breaks down how our brains function best, making goals easier to obtain. The first example he gives is a “monkey see, monkey do” experiment. The experiment showed that when you do something repetitively in the correct form, you have a much higher success rate than if you were to be sitting in the stands watching or doing a variety of the same act, but only occasionally doing it right. Charles then moves onto a study centered on the idea of taking internal dialogue and externalizing it. When you write down a goal and draw out what that goal means to you, that is externalizing your inner-dialogue. In addition to writing out your goals, it is important to talk them out. Charles has his students ask each other: “What are you going to do to achieve your goals?” “What will you see, what will you feel?” “Where will you be and who will be there?” Asking these questions vivify your goal. On the flip side, it is important to ask about the downsides. The more important the goal, the more negatives it’s likely to have.

“Goals are a way of directing your attention” says Charles. He goes on, “You don’t set one big goal, you set interim goals so you get rewarded along the way.” Charles goes on to talk about the importance of having milestones so you don’t get discouraged when your goal is not met immediately. People become attached to a certain outcome but they don’t think about why that outcome is important. He asks the question, “What is important about making a million dollars?” When you break down the reasoning behind your goal, it may uncover layers you had never thought about.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • How to set goals
  • How to achieve your goals
  • Externalizing your inner-dialogue
  • The importance of milestones
Direct download: 402.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Ben Carlson. Ben is the Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management. He first gained fame with his blog, “A Wealth of Common Sense.” Following his blog success Ben wrote the book, “A Wealth of Common Sense: Why Simplicity Trumps Complexity in Any Investment Plan.”

“A Wealth of Common Sense” is geared toward helping investors gain a simpler decision making process and developing a clearer way of thinking. This is where Michael and Ben take the conversation on today’s podcast. Ben says that people usually become their worst enemy while trading. Cycle to cycle or fad-to-fad is how so many plan their investing rather than building their trading off a solid foundation. Studying the emotional side of trading is a relatively new concept that has sprung up in the last couple decades, which causes people to overlook the necessity of its study in their trading. Ben says, “Envy is the worst of all sins because nobody enjoys doing it.” People are constantly tempted to follow what others do. With the amount of information and “noise” thrown around today we are more informed than ever but most aren’t putting that information in the right context.

Ben uses the documentary, “Jiro Dreams of Sushi” as a great example of having faith in a system matched with an extraordinary amount of discipline. There is nothing fancy about Jiro and his sushi. It is his discipline over the years to perfect his craft that has made him arguably the best sushi chef in the world. Whether it is creating the perfect meal or creating the perfect system, you have to give it time to work. Ben says that discipline is just not there for most people. Constantly asking, “Does this still work? Why should I continue to follow it?” Lastly Mike brings up the phrase “Market timing.” On a daily basis there is someone on T.V. predicting what will happen. The two talk about lack of understanding among investors, relating investment advisors as shrinks to their clients. They are not managers of money but managers of people.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Diversification
  • The purpose of a long only commodities investment
  • Speculation
  • Index funds
  • Having a plan
  • Risk and Reward
  • Saying no
Direct download: 401.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today marks 400 episodes on Trend Following radio. To celebrate Michael has put together a compilation of Tom Basso interviews. Tom has been on Trend Following Radio four times and his interviews have been among the most popular episodes airing on the show. Michael plays the interviews back to back and throws in a bonus interview at the beginning. The bonus excerpt is a Tom Basso presentation from the early to mid 1990s.

Tom Basso is most famously known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager’s “The New Market Wizards”. Now retired from managing client money, Tom was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998.

Throughout this 4 1/2 hour podcast Michael and Tom cover a broad range of topics including: Tom’s background and how he got into trading, speculation, emotional rushes, emotional devastation, catastrophic events, separating trading from politics, behavioral economics, advice to newcomers entering the CTA industry, location independence, time management, stoicism, black swans, and the importance of routine.

Michael and Tom also go through listener questions spanning topics including: trading regrets, money management vs. trading, tinkering with current systems, drawdowns, one-system vs. multiple systems, thoughts on Alan Watts, emotions during both losing and winning periods, exit strategies, practice trading vs. live trading, money management, risk control, how to handle skeptics, serenity, John W. Henry, coin flip entry method, percent betting, comfort with uncertainty, initial capital at risk vs. unrealized gains, and fighting against your gut reaction. This podcast includes a wealth of knowledge worth listening to over and over again.

Direct download: 400.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Brett Steenbarger. This is his 2nd appearance on Trend Following Radio. He is a Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry at New York State University, author of “The Daily Trading Coach,” “The Psychology of Trading,” and “Enhancing Trader Performance.” His newest work is “Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.”

Michael and Brett start the podcast off by asking the question, “Do people really have that burning desire to succeed?” Brett says he does believe traders are drawn to trading for the money outcome, but also for the allure of not working a 9-5 job or the dream of scoring easy riches. Brett breaks it apart further by explaining the motivations for different traders: Practice and process are essential. He says, “You hear traders talk about finding your edge and sticking to your edge.” Finding your edge is a continual process because the markets are forever changing. You must adapt.

Brett goes on to discuss the importance of back-testing and how valuable it is to your strategy. He gives the example that elite performers spend more time in preparation than in performance. That preparation helps develop a strategy and prepare the performer mentally. It pushes the performer to develop the best of what they are doing. Brett then details the difference between repeated performance and deliberate practice.

Creativity is the next big topic discussed. Brett says it’s an individual’s creativity that breaks them away from the herd. A trader that has the creativity to diversify and test new strategies. Brett then touches on what it means to “trade your personality,” how paramount it is to have the right trading mentor, and the advantages of creating a checklist to bring out your best practices and make them routine. Lastly, Michael and Brett dig into the necessity of eating, sleeping, physical exercise, and yoga to help fuel a positive emotional experience in life and in trading. If you have been having trouble with the psychological aspects of your trading, this episode is for you.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The emotional “buy in”
  • Checklists
  • Finding a smooth equity curve
  • Repeated performance vs. deliberate practice
  • The role of fitness and health in trading
  • The moment of now
  • Systems trading vs. discretionary trader
  • Relationship between volatility and volume
Direct download: 399.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel talks critical thinking and behavioral finance. He begins with an article excerpt about locker room etiquette and loops around to the parallels between sports psychology and trading psychology. Michael argues that critical thinking has gone by the way side in the general populace and if you have an alternate way of thinking, one that is not with the masses, then you have a leg up.

Digging in Michael explores excerpts from a paper by Howard Marks titled, “Inspiration from the World of Sports.” The paper outlines the consistencies between sports and trading. Michael discusses bullet points from the article; 1. Trading and sports are competitive. Some succeed and some fail, and the distinction is clear. 2. In the long term the better returns go to superior investors. 3. An investment career can feel like a basketball or football game with an unlimited number of quarters.

Michael also explores from Howard Marks the career of Yogi Berra, his achievements and his baseball philosophy. Howard points out how consistent Yogi was in his performance and how that is exactly what he likes to see in his investing. Howard then compares Yogi Berra and Reggie Jackson (Reggie was far less consistent then Yogi). Howard says that he would rather have returns like Yogi, nice and consistent. Michael argues the case for trading like Reggie’s baseball performance. He says the Reggie Jackson home run model is more in line with venture capital, film financing, the MIT blackjack team, and trend following trading, for example. The point being that home runs will pay for the strike outs. Michael ends the podcast by pointing out that Reggie and Yogi are ultimately in the same game, but it is up to you to decide what style of trading you want.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Consistency vs. the home run
  • Quarterly performance
  • Trend following performance
  • Emotion in human nature
  • Irrationality in investing
Direct download: 398.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Jim Rickards. Jim was front and center during the 1998 LTCM blow-up. He was a partner and general counsel for Long Term Capital Management. Following their blowup, he was principal negotiator in the 1998 bailout of LTCM by the Federal Reserve. He has had a bird’s eye view of some of the most interesting events in the economy over the last 20 years.

Michael and Jim dive right into the sequence of events that lead to the devaluation of the Thai Baht in May of 1997. Jim then goes into the chronology of events that took place leading to the fall of Long Term Capital Management. He makes clear that LTCM had some of the brightest brains in finance working for them at the time, including Nobel Prize winners and a vast number of PhD’s from MIT, Harvard, Stanford, Yale, etc. Jim summarizes the events prompting Russia to default on their debt which let loose a sequence of events leading to LTCM losing four billion dollars in one month. Wall Street cared not for the four billion LTCM loss but because they had over 1 trillion dollars of derivatives contracts tied to LTCM positions. Many thought all of Wall Street would have been taken down if LTCM went down. That was when the Fed intervened and organized a bailout.

Jim goes on to talk about the changes that took place and the lessons that were learned from the fall of LTCM. He says the three lessons that should have been taken away from the crisis were; derivatives are dangerous, leverage is dangerous and getting banks involved is dangerous. The changes started with repealing Glass Steagall in 1999, rewriting laws so they could do “swaps” on everything, and then in 2006 the SEC changed leverage rules on brokers. So in short regulators ended up doing the complete opposite of what they should have learned from LTCM. Michael asks the question, “Why were the same people who were saying that the economy was great till the day it crashed, the same people that were responsible for fixing it?” Jim says policy makers never see bubbles. He gives two possible explanations for why policy makers act as they do; conspiracy or complete incompetence. He believes it is more incompetence rather than a conspiracy and goes on to explain why.

Michael and Jim then dive into “models”. If you have the wrong models you will get the wrong results every time. Michael notes that the right models are rooted in behavioral finance. Jim notes that the Fed does not use behavioral economics. Jim talks about the three elements that his model is based on: behavioral finance, complexity theory and inverse probability. He goes into great depth on what all of those models are and gives real life examples for them.

Direct download: 397.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Kathleen Eisenhardt. Kathleen is Co-Author of the best selling book “Simple Rules.” She is also the Co-Director of the Stanford Technology Ventures Program. Her book’s foundation is based on the argument that too much structure and too many rules don’t get products out the door and the other extreme, no rules or structure tend to not produce results either. In short, simplicity beats complexity. Her book “Simple Rules” is not just about rules in business, but in all aspects of life; sports, entertainment, investing, diets, etc.

Kathleen defines simple rules as shortcuts that save on time and are more commonly known as, “rules of thumb” (heuristics). Michael and Kathleen pull in examples from Google, Netflix, The White Stripes, Billy Bean and the Oakland A’s, General Motors, Stanford football and an expedition in the South Pole launched in 1912. Kathleen shows in all the scenarios how people who modeled the past failed and how the simple route conquered the complex every time. She stresses that the philosophy, psychology, and the system itself may not be so simple, but the rules to follow are.

Kathleen and Michael go on to discuss people who make a living out of of being complicated. Lawyers, accountants, lobbyists make a living out of having a lot of rules nobody can decipher. Kathleen discusses the differences in risk adverse people, more strategic people and the people who just go ahead and wing it in business and in life. Kathleen explains her three step process in creating simpler guidelines. “Bottleneck” is the 2nd rule in the three step process. The “Bottleneck” is what keeps you from getting to the objective. It’s what holds you up from moving forward. You solve the bottleneck and you have solved your problem.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  •     Bottleneck concept
  •     Complexity is not always best
  •     Tax code for political gain
  •     Simplifying government
  •     Improving your probabilities with rules
  •     The Federal Reserve
Direct download: 396.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Rob Walling. Rob may not be a trader, but he is a serial entrepreneur. And trading at its heart, after all, is an entrepreneurial activity. Rob started early. When he was eight his parents purchased an Apple computer and he learned to code to create video games, and when he got into college he realized coding could be profitable. He asked himself, “What can I do that I can leverage?” In the late 90’s he got his first paid job writing code for a consulting firm and around 2007/2008 he transitioned full time into creating and producing his own products.

Rob talks about learning from every job and every encounter. He speaks to real life experience and how it is paramount to success. Rob was passionate from the start about coding. He did it long before he thought it could be a paying gig. Michael and Rob also give examples of why you need to start at the beginning and figure out how to build your audience. If you are in your 20’s you especially need to realize that you don’t know everything. You are missing something. No matter how smart and motivated you are, you need that real life experience.

When trying to start your business Rob gives examples such as: pick a few people that resonate with you and focus in on them, only take the information you need at that point in time, and above all, stop shooting for the Zuckerberg “dream”. He sees so many businesses trying to be a “one hit wonder”. They aren’t thinking about building a business that is going to last. Rob has a straight forward approach to bootstrapping called the stair-step approach that he outlines on the podcast (as well as on his website).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Rob Walling’s “Stair-Step Approach”
  • Growth hackers
  • The act of creating
  • Focusing on the “Unicorn” rather than reality
  • Filtering your information
  • Skin deep information
Direct download: 395.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael talks the timelessness of sticking with your system. Michael uses Jack Schwager and his books Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards as prime examples of timelessness. Although they were written years back, he argues they have not lost an ounce of value in today’s trading world. Michael harps on critics that say the Market Wizards books have no place in 2015 markets, noting that one of the great concepts introduced in Schwagers’ books was the notion of “systems”. Although the concept of having a system had been around for over 100 years, Schwager was one of the first to present and teach in an interview format.

Michael then segues into a clip with Howard Lindzon of Stock Twits. Howard further makes the point that having “Any system is better than no system”. He goes on to say, “You have to have a system to beat another system.” Howard talks about Jerry Parker, his trading style and why he has become so successful. Covel asks listeners, “What kind of system do you want? What are the risks and rewards? There are all kinds of systems out there. Have you done the work to find out the pros and cons? What kind of life do you want to have?” The system you choose will dictate that. People who tell you the Schwager books are dated are the same people that will sell you anything. These people go off of gut, intuition or even magical feelings, and that is their decision-making process. Trust that the highest achievers and money-makers on Wall Street trust their systems, painstakingly researched and developed. When times are good they leave it alone, and when times are bad they leave it alone.

Covel plays one last legacy excerpt from Bill Dunn. Dunn lays out that his approach is long term trend following and quantitative. His company does not override their signals ever and they have serious risk management programs in place. They have a 1% probability of losing 20% or more in a one month period. However, the client can choose more or less risk. He shows how his firm does not correlate with the S&P and their positions and trades are completely transparent to their clients. Dunn makes it clear that his performance is not a result of anyone’s judgment. It is a result of long tested simulations and models. Timelessness personified.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Human nature doesn’t change
  • Timelessness
  • Behavioral finance
  • Sticking with a system
  • Risk management
  • Bill Dunn on trend following
Direct download: 394.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Emil van Essen. Michael first heard of Emil from former turtle, Lucy Wyatt. The first thing to note is that he is not a trend following trader. He is a commodity spread trader. Emil has been a CTA since 1997, but his first trading experience was at the early age of 12. Emil delivered papers when he was younger and would take the money and invest in rare coins. The owner of the coin store happened to be a commodity trader. He helped teach Emil about trading commodities and even put in trades for him. Emil’s first trading job was in 1986 at the age of 21.

Michael and Emil start the podcast explaining spread trading. Emil describes trend following as one dimensional whereas spread trading in his view has a multidimensional trading surface because of all the directions a trade can profit rather than if the market only goes up or down. Emil refers to his trading as not systematic but model driven. At the base of his every trade is a model and they can tweak the model accordingly as they see fit–a big distinction compared to trend following.

Emil’s firm is one of the only CTA’s that are negatively correlated to trend followers. He also believes that following rules 100% of the time is a bad idea. “Our brains are far more smarter than computers,” he states. Emil adds, “We need to know not to be emotional about trades but if you don’t adapt to change then you won’t last.” Emil also throws around the controversial word, “prediction.” He says that when he says “predication”, it is actually more about “probability.” He tries to find a method that reliably tells him that something is going to happen more often than not. Emil says, “You try and find an edge. Find consistent behavior patterns that give you a risk adjusted return.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Growth of commodity ETFs
  • Diversification
  • Raising money vs. Making money
  • Quality Investors vs. Quantity of Investors
  • Beta and Alpha
  • Not all investors are created equal
Direct download: 393.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael talks about one of his favorite subjects: baseball and numbers. He profiles arguably one of baseball’s greatest managers, Earl Weaver of the Baltimore Orioles. Weaver believed that baseball, just like trend following, always came back to numbers. He knew the right formula was the 3-run home run.

Coincidentally, Covel’s favorite team growing up was the Orioles. They were one of the “it” team in the 1970s and early 1980’s. Unknown to most, Earl Weaver, the Orioles manager, had a strategy that was a foundation for the book (and later turned Hollywood movie) “Moneyball”. His approach to building a winning team not only applies to baseball, but also to many other aspects of life, including trend following.

Covel plays a clip about Weaver, profiling how he operated and changed the mentality of how to put together a baseball team. Focusing on every “out” was at the very core of his strategy. He looked at the whole arc of the game rather than just the beginning, middle or end. Weaver had a plan for every individual player on his team.

Weaver is just as responsible for Covel’s trend following mindset as some of the most successful trend following traders he has met. He showed that home runs win and pay for mistakes. Ask yourself: “How can I put myself in the position to capture the next home run?” That doesn’t mean to be reckless. The podcast ends with a classic Earl Weaver clip that throws a few “F” bombs around. Listener discretion is advised.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trend following as a numbers game
  • Earl Weaver’s Moneyball legacy
  • Why homeruns pay for the losses
  • Consistency as an illusion
  • Trading is/as a game
  • Know your strategy and stick with it
Direct download: 392.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

On today’s episode of Trend Following Radio Michael Covel interviews Charles Poliquin. Charles is recognized as one of the worlds most successful strength coaches and has coached Olympic to professional athletes. He speaks with Michael about his new venture with Ed Seykota as well as his vast health and exercise knowledge.

Poliquin was Canada’s second youngest black belt at the age of 14, has mastered 6 different martial arts, and is influenced strongly by Bruce Lee, karma and other eastern influences. After getting into karate at the age of 10, he moved into lifting weights at the age of 14 and fell in love instantly with the sport. He took on his first training client in his first year of college at the age of 17 and has named himself the “Strength Sensei ”.

Charles gives countless bits of advice on how to keep moving forward in life and fitness: “If you don’t have an expiration date then the goal doesn’t mean anything. There is no pressure.” Keep the competition going with yourself. Also, have a good balance of work and time off. He points out that sleep is one of the most underrated subjects within health and fitness, but it should be a priority. Lastly, Michael and Charles talk about testosterone levels and how they are deeply affecting men and women around the world. Charles explains both the environmental and nutritional basis for low testosterone and why it has such a huge impact on the human mental state.

“Progression not perfection is what you should be focusing on. “ --Charles Poliquin

“The general who sleeps the most wins the war.” --Charles Poliquin

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Long distance cardio vs. short sprint workouts
  • The importance of sleep to your health and fitness
  • Meditation and mindfulness
  • How testosterone levels affect the psychology of men and woman
  • Relationship between top athletes and top executives
  • How to stay motivated
Direct download: 391.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel talks with Lawrence McMillan of McMillan Analysis Corporation. The topic of discussion is options, their value in terms of overall strategy, and how their trading has evolved over the preceding decades.

The conversation opens with Lawrence talking about his days at historic Bell Labs – a research company founded in the 19th century by Alexander Graham Bell – and the initial difficulty in working with options due to their complicated nature and the level of technology required. Later, Michael asks Lawrence to talk about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and how, since the subprime crisis of 2008, many are looking at the VIX as long-term insurance for the future. One of the problems with that strategy, as Lawrence points out, is that many people fail to take into account that VIX only measures market expectations for the next 30 days.

Also discussed today are leverage as a financial tool and the concept of the black swan – unforeseen events that have a major impact, but only rationalized after the fact. Lawrence brings decades of experience and wisdom, gain perspective.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • American vs. European-style options
  • The logic behind VIX
  • Leverage as a tool
  • Understanding puts and calls
  • Long and short selling
  • Examining the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008

Want a FREE Trend Follwing DVD? Find it here.

Direct download: 383.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Just as shamans have been consulted throughout time to provide the desperate and gullible with prophecies, so too are financial shamans (often masquerading as experts) are looked up to for comforting myths about market direction.

Of course, we can and should prepare for the many possible market eventualities by looking at the data and trading trends, but to expect anyone to be able to provide absolute predictions for the future is absurd. The truth is that we do not know for sure, and anyone that tells you they do know might as well be gazing into a crystal ball.

Today’s episode looks at the various attitudes and beliefs concerning the falsehood of market predictability. Michael Covel runs the commentary, drawing a narrative thread through various excerpts from some of the most prominent economic and financial thinkers.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Recognizing when you are being misled by the experts
  • What to look for in trend analysis and what to be wary of
  • Considering bubbles and other unpredictable global factors in the markets
  • Finding an objective approach to investing based on quantifiable information
  • Considering timeless human investment psychology elements
  • Making investment decisions without being blinded by rigid economic processes or political ideologies  

Want a FREE Trend Following DVD? Get it here

 

Direct download: 369.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel presents a monologue today about his recent trip to Mainland China (Beijing). A trip that centered on his presentation to 1100 Chinese investors and traders. For those listeners that have not yet traveled to China--either for business or vacation--Covel offers a wide-ranging primer. There is no doubt that from a business perspective especially--the time for China is now. The population is massive, the energy is overwhelming and the desire is infectious. Regardless of your current understanding of China, your perception of their government or the many other misunderstandings so prevalent in the West--China has at its core a deep desire for business and success. The adrenaline is simply to be felt. And yes, they want to learn trend following too. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 358.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Dr. Jonathan Fader. Fader is a licensed clinical psychologist and is the team psychologist to the NY Mets baseball team. Fader also writes a blog for Psychology Today entitled 'The New You'. He maintains an active clinical practice, is an assistant professor of Family Medicine at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and teaches in the Beth Israel Residency Program in Family Medicine in New York City. Fader and Covel discuss motivational interviewing, sport psychology techniques, process v. outcome, the mistake of focusing only on results, mental state and stress, mindfulness, Facebook distraction, Eastern traditions, the moment of now, and quieting the mind. Issues discussed apply to life, trading, sports and business--Fader offers insights we can all use. More on Fader at www.jonathanfader.com. If you would like a free trend following DVD go here: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 357.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michel Covel offers a take about passion -- the critical element of your success. An excerpt from the recent Birdman film and comments from Pink Floyd's Roger Waters help make the case. In Birdman the Michael Keaton character approaches a critic in a dive bar. Everyone is afraid to approach the critic, the fake gatekeeper. Keaton shows the passion. Are you afraid of the gatekeeper? Great. You have already lost. Next, Roger Waters talking about the classic song Brain Damage from the Dark Side of the Moon reveals his motivation, his passion. "Got to keep the loonies on the path." It doesn't matter your endeavor, trading, investing, entrepreneur--if passion is missing you are the walking dead, already 2 steps behind. The good news? Passion can be turned on instantly. It is in your power.

Direct download: 356.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Ed Seykota on his second visit to the podcast. Originally profiled in the classic book 'The Market Wizards', Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years. This conversation breaks down into three parts: Govopoly, the Trading Tribe and trend following. Govopoly is Seykota's most recent book. In it he sees the economy transforming from a free and open societal structure to a controlled structure. The Govopoly system is taking over. It's not about another election to solve this, or to try and fix it. It is what it is and best we can all do is to cope with it. Seykota sees the Trading Tribe as one means of coping. The Trading Tribe is an association of people who commit to excellence, personal growth and supporting and receiving support from each other. The members of the Trading Tribe trade roles, becoming in turn senders and receivers for each other. Lastly, Seykota and Covel discuss trend following. Specifically, Seykota shares early experiences with Richard Donchian and his solo time with mainframes testing some of the first trend systems via computer. Finally, Seykota shares his motivation for his life (and some insights about puzzles).

Direct download: 355.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel discusses one of Michael Mauboussin's white papers, “The Babe Ruth Effect”. This paper first caught Covel’s eye over a decade ago. It makes the critical point that big wins can pay for small losses (expected value thinking). Covel discusses the expected value mindset and how it relates to other fields, especially venture capital through a blog entry by Chris Dixon. Next, Covel connects a podcast episode titled “Good Bubbles, Bad Bubbles, and Where Unicorns Come From” with Bill Janeway, a venture capitalist and partner at Warburg Pincus. Covel shares a few excerpts covering liquidity and survivorship bias (all in this frequency v. magnitude mindset and all relating back to the Babe Ruth effect). Covel brings these topics to trend following as well. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 354.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Steve Burns on his third appearance on the podcast. Steve Burns has been investing in the stock market for over 20 years. He is the author of seven books, ranks near the top 500 of all reviewers on Amazon.com, and is one of the sites top reviewers for books about trading. Additionally, Burns has singlehandedly developed an exceptional Twitter following. Today, Burns and Covel answer questions from readers of Burns' forum. Covel and Burns discuss the self-publishing world; how one goes about making choices in social media; getting over the obstacle of fundamentals; mindfulness and the writings of Alan Watts; backtesting processes; brand new traders being introduced to a model that loses 60% of the time; survivorship bias; predictive vs. reactive technical analysis. For more information on Steve Burns, visit newtraderu.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 353.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Tim Larkin on today’s podcast. Larkin is one of America’s leading Pro-Victim Rights and Personal Safety Advocates. He has had a 25 year career where he has trained over 10,000 clients in 52 countries in how to deal with imminent violence. His books include How To Survive The Most Critical 5 Seconds Of Your Life and Survive The Unthinkable. Covel and Larkin discuss the Virginia Tech killings and why it is important to study violence; looking at sports injuries for the purpose of self-defense; honor in fighting; the relation between prison gang leaders and CEOs; the importance of focusing on the man and his mind rather than the tool; avoidable acts of violence; why the United Kingdom did not allow Larkin into the country; and avoiding violence from a game theory perspective. For more information on Tim Larkin, visit targetfocustraining.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 352.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel offers a reminder of how to think and act when responding to certain types of questioning and the translation to markets. Covel can think of no more perfect example than the “greed” exchange between Milton Friedman and Phil Donahue. Covel discusses Milton Friedman more and brings and expands the discussion into the general take-down of bullshit. Covel also discusses the importance of 'losers' (see: zero sum) in the market and why people acting irrationally offers perpetual opportunities for trend following traders. Next, a personal anecdote regarding a pre-interview for a podcast, Maria Bartiromo, and the fundamental question: “Why will trend following continue to excel?” Finally, Covel moves onto a healthy bit of advice in risk management for your trading. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 351.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Mike Melissinos and Glenn Graham on today’s “emerging trend following trader” episode. In 2011, Melissinos started Melissinos Trading in his parents’ house in New Jersey. Covel and Melissinos discuss Melissinos’ career and beginnings; his history with Bear Sterns; Melissinos’ introduction to trend following; “find trends, align with trends, and manage risks”; the similarities between crude oil, copper, sugar, the Euro, and wheat; and trading based purely on price. For more information on Mike Melissinos, visit melissinostrading.com. Glenn Graham’s firm is Golden Point Capital. Graham has had extensive experience in quantitative trading strategy development in the futures space. He holds the designation of Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA), a designation focusing on the alternative asset classes. Graham and Covel discuss Graham’s early trading track record; niche markets and hedging; Graham’s early trading experiences and his history at a high frequency trading firm; early influences in trend style trading; the parallels between trading and backgammon; the importance of the size of your winners over winning percentage; and style drift. For more information on Glenn Graham, visit goldenpointcap.com. For a free DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 350.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Donald MacKenzie on today’s podcast. MacKenzie is a Professor of Sociology at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland. He works on the sociology of markets, focusing on automated trading, the use of mathematical models, and the evaluation and trading of bonds. MacKenzie has worked in the past on topics ranging from the sociology of nuclear weapons to the meaning of proof in the context of computer systems critical to safety or security. Covel and MacKenzie discuss economic models; self-fulfilling prophecies and economics; our beliefs and the social world; the definition of performativity; Mackenzie’s analysis and study of the Black-Scholes model; Long Term Capital Management; reflexivity; the intellectual gap between purveyors of the efficient market hypothesis vs. behavioral economists as reflected in the 2014 Nobel Prize winners; and the arms race in high frequency trading. Donald MacKenzie’s book mentioned is called An Engine, Not A Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 349.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:13pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel opens up with a monologue and closes with an interview of him covering trend following 'fundamentals'. Covel opens up by discussing how the phrase “black box” is used to marginalize those who practice trend following trading. Next, Covel plays an interview clip from James Simons, the chairman of Renaissance Technologies, who generated for himself over 14B USD all through models. The second part of today’s episode are highlights of Andrew Horowitz’s interview with Covel--an interview *of* Covel this time. Covel and Horowitz discuss the TurtleTrader story; black boxes, emotions, and computers; what trend following is from the most basic level; the question of “why”, and why it might not be as important as many people think; finding which markets to enter; finding the optimal bet size; and how Fed intervention plays into the market. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 348.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Kathryn Kaminski on her second visit to the podcast. Kaminski is Director of Investment Strategies at Campbell and Co--the famed CTA started by Keith Campbell. Today, Kaminski outlines her new whitepaper, specifically diving into correlation among traders (CTAs). Covel and Kaminski discuss correlation between fund managers and strategies; the media’s misrepresentation of systematic strategies; diversification in the CTA and equity world; and why one trend following strategy is similar to just one stock. To view the paper see: www.campbell.com. Want a free trend following DVD, go to: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 347.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Gavin Serkin on today’s podcast. Serkin has been writing about developing economies for the better part of two decades as the Editor of Portfolio International magazine and more recently as the head of the emerging markets international desk at Bloomberg News in London. Serkin led Bloomberg’s coverage of the credit and derivatives markets from 2004 to 2008, winning the Society of American Business Editors & Writers’ Best in Business Award and the Society of Professional Journalists’ Deadline Club Award. Frontier, his new book, is a vivid travelogue of ten countries with the potential to lead economic growth in the coming decade. Covel and Serkin talk about safety issues in frontier lands; men and women in frontier countries; global brands and the direction we’re headed; going through Vietnam with Mark Mobius; Myanmar and violence; relations between the US, China, Vietnam, and Myanmar; Nigeria’s economy and where it’s headed. For more information on Gavin Serkin, visit frontierfunds.org. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 346.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Spyros Makridakis on the show today. Makridakis is the Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world's leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is famous as the organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions. His calling is to poke holes in the notion that we can forecast with accuracy. Covel and Makridakis discuss known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns; the two main types of uncertainty--“subway” and “coconut”; Jim Collins, one of the best-selling business book authors of all time, and why it might not have any use to us; medicine and chance; the placebo effect; acceptance of an uncertain world; and the illusion of control. Whitepapers mentioned in episode: http://www.michaelcovel.com/2015/04/23/spyros-makridakis-interview-followup. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 345.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Martin Lueck on today’s podcast. Lueck holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University and currently is the Research Director and President of Aspect Capital. Lueck was originally with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded with Michael Adam and David Harding. At AHL, Martin initially focused on trading system research before taking on responsibility for the further development of the proprietary software language which provided the platform for all of AHL’s product engineering and implementation. Covel and Lueck discuss when he first saw quantitative, systematic styles in action; the beginnings of AHL; early coding experiences; early decisions that lead to a completely systematic strategy; diversification; what percentage of the educated financial audience grasps the strategies that are used at Aspect; behavioral economics; and bringing new potential opportunities into Aspect. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 344.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Ryan Holiday on his third visit to the podcast. Holiday is an American author, writer, and marketer. He is the media strategist behind authors Tucker Max and Robert Greene, the former Director of Marketing for American Apparel and an editor-at-large for the New York Observer. Today, Covel and Holiday discuss the process of writing a book. Whether or not you want to write a book yourself, the timeless topics Covel and Holiday cover apply not just to writing, but to life. Covel and Holiday discuss the idea of always being in a research mindset; why some people don’t take advantage of standing on the shoulders of the giants that came before them; to know where you’re going and to have a plan when it comes to writing; why it’s “all material”; the idea of listening to the same song over and over again; the “flow” state and its importance in writing; the importance of having a purpose in your writing; discipline and commitments; outsourcing and hiring experts for your writing project. For more information on Ryan Holiday, visit ryanholiday.net. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 343.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Victor Ricciardi on today’s episode of the podcast. Victor Ricciardi is an Assistant Professor of Financial Management at Goucher College. Professor Ricciardi is a leading expert on the academic literature and emerging research issues in behavioral finance. He is the editor of several eJournals distributed by the Social Science Research Network (SSRN), including behavioral finance, financial history, behavioral economics, and behavioral accounting. Ricciardi is also the co-editor of the book Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing. Covel and Ricciardi discuss how Ricciardi found his way into behavioral finance; risk perception vs. risk tolerance; the affect and the anchoring heuristic; behavioral finance vs. behavioral economics; looking at behavioral finance in the context of specific strategies; behavioral economics in the context of asset bubbles and the popping of asset bubbles; why economic growth does not increase happiness; mindfulness as an assist in the notion of good decision-making; the notion of animal spirits; and the behavioral school vs. the classical school in academia. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 342.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Michael Dever on his third appearance to the podcast. Dever is an American businessman, futures trader, entrepreneur, and author. Dever is the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management, Inc., an investment management firm founded in 1982, and the author of the best-selling investment book Jackass Investing: Don't Do It. Profit From It. Covel and Dever discuss Dever’s approach which uses multiple fundamentally based strategies in a systematic diversified portfolio that trades across more than one hundred global markets; strategy diversification; the word “predictable” from Dever’s perspective; lack of correlation to other strategies; what Dever means by a “not purely quantitative” strategy; how and why this particular suite of strategies came to exist; the five strategy types; crisis events and black swans; the weakness in the multiple strategy return driver set; the importance of speculators; the fixation on low volatility strategies; and true portfolio diversification. For more information on Michael Dever, visit Brandywine.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 341.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Tim Ferriss on today’s podcast. Tim Ferriss is an author, blogger and motivational speaker known for his bestselling books The 4-Hour Workweek, The 4-Hour Body and The 4-Hour Chef. To Covel Ferriss is otherwise known as the guy who has revolutionized the idea of writing a book; he has engineered the process of a bestseller. If you want to write a book, there is no one else better to learn from. Also a big influence on Covel: the idea of location independence. This is the idea that if you have your laptop and an internet connection, you can work from anywhere. Now, after all these bestselling books, Ferriss has a new TV show, The Tim Ferriss Experiment, all about the process of "learning". Covel and Ferriss discuss why the wrestler Dan Gable is part of Ferriss’ drive; the “grinding” aspect of wrestling, and how that has played into Ferriss’ career; the early lessons learned about making a TV show; the 80/20 rule; comparisons to the Turtle experiment; the idea of getting older, recovery, and athletics. Trailer: https://youtu.be/V4IuXZOIf7E. For more information on Tim Ferriss, visit fourhourworkweek.com/tv. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 340.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Tim Price on his second appearance on the podcast. Price is the London-based Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management. Price has over 20 years of experience in both private client and institutional investment management. Price regularly shares his views on his blog, The Price of Everything. What can we see in the central banks? What actinos have taken place in the last few years? Covel and Price discuss why the fundamentals are so 'shocking'; FDR and the Great Depression; why government taking its hands out of the equation can be the solution in a recession or depression; why savers suffer in silence; the three scenarios that occur when you accept that much debt simply cannot be paid back (growth, default, or inflation); the standoff between Germany and Greece, and how the average German might feel today about common currency; and the lack of outrage of zero interest rate policy. For more information on Tim Price, visit thepriceofeverything.typepad.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 339.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with K.D. Angle on today’s podcast. Angle began trading the futures markets in 1979 and developed his first rules-based trading strategy in 1984. In 1985 he created a newsletter called “The Timing Device” that specialized in making specific trade recommendations in the futures markets. After 1995, Angle retired the newsletter and went into asset management on a full time basis while investing the majority of his time and resources into researching and developing rules-based strategies. Covel and Angle discuss Angle’s father’s history, who turned a two million dollar gold investment into a hundred million in just six months, and the lessons learned; whether there was an early trend trading influence beyond looking at Angle’s father’s career; Angle’s experience with Dunn Capital; freedom of location; 100% rule-based and systematic trading vs. adding discretionary elements to your system; and why the client part of the business is so important. For more information on K.D. Angle, visit anglecm.com. Trend following DVD? Go: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 338.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel offers a double episode today. First, a recent speech of Covel’s all about trend following. Topics include track records; predictive vs. reactive strategies; quality of life in trading; how Covel got into the world of Trend Following; trading and coding; sophistication vs. automation; trend following performance in 2014; drawdowns in trend following; and trading as a game. Next, an interview with William Ury. William Ury, cofounder of Harvard’s Program on Negotiation, is one of the world’s best-known and most influential experts on negotiation. He has served as a mediator in conflicts ranging from boardroom battles to labor strikes, and from family feuds to civil wars. Covel and Ury’s subject today is negotiation. We’re all negotiating for something: money, love, sex, real estate. In his speech, Covel discusses reactive technical analysis; prediction; why trend following performance in 2014 was so excellent; and the reality of drawdowns. With William Ury, Covel discusses the negotiation with self; Ury’s history with high-stakes negotiations; some of the base human emotions that can be important in negotiations; getting to “yes” with yourself; how Ury became immersed in the world of negotiation; the importance of staying in the present moment. For more information on William Ury, visit williamury.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 337.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Colin Camerer on today’s podcast. Camerer is an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer's research is on the interface between cognitive psychology and economics. This work seeks a better understanding of the psychological and neurobiological basis of decision-making in order to determine the validity of models of human economic behavior. His research uses mostly economics experiments—and occasionally field studies—to understand how people behave when making decisions (e.g., risky gambles for money), in games, and in markets (e.g., speculative price bubbles). Covel and Camerer discuss why Camerer was called a child prodigy, and how he looks at that term in the context of nurture vs. nature; synthesizing behavioral economics and neuroscience; understanding Camerer’s studies when traders aren’t looking at the market on a day-to-day basis; how we can stimulate the brain to create a bubble; the ethical issues surrounding Camerer’s work; machine learning and data mining; neuroscience and game theory; comparing humans and chimps in the study of neuroscience; how trust correlates with economic growth; and how emotion functions in the modern world. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.  

Direct download: 336.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh on today’s two-part Bitcoin episode. Andreas Antonopoulos is a technologist and serial entrepreneur who has become one of the most well-known and well-respected figures in Bitcoin. With Antonopoulos, Covel discusses acceptance of Bitcoin, and if the State could outlaw it; Third World and Second World acceptance of Bitcoin; the infrastructural needs for Bitcoin; Bitcoin fees and the cost of securing the network; currency issuance; why Bitcoin doesn’t rely on trust; why financial transactions are the most surveilled part of your life in America; the privacy aspect of Bitcoin; currency volatility and the difference between volatility and stability; and where you can get started with Bitcoin. Harry Yeh is Managing Partner at Binary Financial. Binary Financial LLC is an Investment management company focused on the crypto currency space, trading and facilitating large block trades for high net worth individuals and institutions. With Yeh, Covel discusses why Bitcoin is the most volatile alternative asset class, but why it still might be worth it to trade; how Bitcoin is a split between a commodity and a currency right now; being a speculator in Bitcoin and trading Bitcoin like futures contracts; Bitcoin adoption in China; why Bitcoin is tough as a store of value, but as great a trading opportunity; and finally, recommendations on Bitcoin wallets. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 335.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel opens up by discussing a piece about Benoit Mandelbrot and fractals. Covel notes the importance of taking a look at the complexity we see and taking a step back--an inspiration from Mandelbrot. Next, how are trend following returns produced? It’s important to be inspired by them, but it’s also important to understand other aspects of trend following like correlation. Today, Covel discusses the combination of a trend following investment (in this case Bernard Drury) and Warren Buffett into one portfolio. Covel discusses the two strategies and what happens specifically when you combine the two. Covel concludes by sharing a clip from David Harding regarding the importance of strategy. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 334.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Gary Dayton on today’s podcast. Dayton stands apart as a trading psychologist in his use of the Mindfulness-Acceptance-Commitment (MAC) approach to peak performance, a model of human behavior based on mindfulness. Dayton is a psychologist and holds a doctorate in clinical psychology and a certificate in human performance/sport psychology from Rutgers University. He is President of Peak Psychology, Inc., a consulting firm that specializes in developing “peak” performance in traders. Covel and Dayton discuss mindfulness, yoga, and a turnaround in a particularly depressed patient; defining mindfulness; how Dayton went from a clinical psychologist to integrating money, markets, trading, and investing into his work; the importance of a trading process; looking at the lessons and research of Daniel Kahneman; the endowment effect; price action as a heuristic; the importance of an exit strategy; why mindfulness is the most important skill  a trader can develop. Dayton’s book, Trade Mindfully, is available on Amazon. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 333.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Brian Proctor on today’s podcast. Proctor is an original TurtleTrader trained by Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt and today is a Managing Director at EMC Capital. He began his futures career in 1982, with experience at both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. Proctor was a participant in the renowned Turtle Program, and managed all trading operations at C&D Commodities through 2000. Covel and Proctor discuss Proctor’s first trading moments and the Turtle program; Proctor’s view on Liz Cheval, what she brought to his firm, and why she’s still an integral part of EMC today; how trend following strategies have continued to excel over the years; diversification and the Swiss franc; black swans and how the impossible can and does happen; and Bill Eckhardt’s influence. For more information on Brian Proctor, visit emccta.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 332.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Douglas Emlen on today’s podcast. Emlen is a professor at the University of Montana. He is the recipient of the Presidential Early Career Award in Science and Engineering from the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. He has also earned multiple research awards from the National Science Foundation, including their five-year CAREER award. Covel and Emlen discuss taking our lessons from animals; the connection with human and animal arms races; international hacking; comparing the fiddler crap to US and USSR bombers during the cold war; defining evolutionary biology; how an arms race can run its course via the example of the sabertooth tiger; the arms race in the trading world; how the cuttlefish has found its way around the “alpha” system; finding “workarounds” when the deck is stacked against you; war games and detente; why predictability in weapons is important; one-on-one showdowns; and the importance of being nimble. Emlen’s book, Animal Weapons: The Evolution of Battle, is available on Amazon. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 331.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Nigol Koulajian on today’s podcast. Koulajian is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Quest Partners LLC. He has been designing and trading short-term and long-term technical systems for over 22 years. Covel starts the episode with some comments on Ray Dalio's recent comments drawing a parallel to 1937. Then Koulajian and Covel talk all things trend following in the CTA space. Covel and Koulajian discuss trend following performance in 2014; volatility vs. skew; why having a good Sharpe Ratio is not the be-all-end-all; the notion that alpha in the CTA world is not a result of skill; correlation between tail risk and the Sharpe Ratio; central bank action and the Swiss Franc; why trend following may not be as good in equity market corrections now as it has been in the past; why trend following is not about the super-complicated mathematics; getting outsiders to understand drawdowns; emotional intelligence vs. intellectual intelligence; media bias against trend following. For more information on Nigol Koulajian, visit questpartnersllc.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 330.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Terrance Odean on today’s podcast. Odean is the Rudd Family Foundation Professor and Chair of the Finance Group at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley. Odean has extensively researched into the empirical data on active trading. He is very well-known for his work in behavioral finance and is once of the early pioneers. Covel and Odean discuss how Odean describes his work; how Odean started his work looking at individual broker statements; the disposition effect; how Odean was able to get individual investor data when he was starting out; looking at early thinkers in the arena of behavioral finance; why people buy low and sell high; why statistics are one of the best ways to understand what’s going on in the market; the difference between male and female investors; why overconfidence hurts investors; attention and how we make decisions; why a simple heuristic from Seinfeld could be the best way for most investors. For more information on Terrance Odean, visit odean.org. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 329.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Robert Seawright on today’s podcast. Seawright is the Chief Investment & Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities, a boutique broker-dealer and investment advisory firm headquartered in San Diego, California. Seawright is also a columnist for Research magazine, a Contributing Editor at Portfolioist as well as a contributor to the Financial Times, The Big Picture, The Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch, Pragmatic Capitalism, and ThinkAdvisor. Covel opens up by talking about “A New Kind Of Investment Outlook”, a blog post by Seawright. Covel explains that this episode is all about the right type of thinking when it comes to proper investing. Covel and Seawright discuss topics such as how Seawright was able to put together this blog piece; perfection and prediction; bias blindness; volatility vs. risk; separating your politics from your investing; financial media as entertainment; whether Seawright encountered any pushback after putting out his article; letting go of the high leverage idea; why the more we trade, the worse we do; Nobel laureate David Baltimore; and adversarial collaboration. For more information on Bob Seawright visit rpseawright.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 328.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Susan Polgar and Douglas Goldstein, co-authors of Rich As A King: How the Wisdom of Chess Can Make You a Grandmaster of Investing. Susan Polgar, American chess grandmaster, and Douglas Goldstein, Certified Financial Planner, had the unique idea of looking at chess and applying the wisdom to investing. You don’t need to be a chess player to get insights from Polgar and Goldstein. Covel and Polgar discuss Polgar’s early history as a four-year-old chess playing prodigy, and the trouble some older males had in accepting her; nurture vs. nature; the connection between the Turtle story and chess; the skills that chess provides outside of just playing the game; the importance of keeping your emotions in check; process vs. outcome; and thinking through the possibilities from a chess perspective. With Douglas Goldstein, Covel discusses how the idea came about to combine finance with chess in a book; tactics vs. strategy; and pattern recognition. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 327.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Kabir Sehgal on today’s episode of Trend Following Radio. Sehgal is a New York Times bestselling author and Grammy Award-winning producer. He is currently a vice president at JPMorgan Chase. Sehgal’s new book, Coined: The Rich Life of Money and How Its History Has Shaped Us, caught Covel’s eye. This is a subject layered in complexity and depth. Just about everything that goes on in our lives is decided by money and Sehgal digs into its story on a micro level. Covel and Sehgal discuss Sehgal’s history; Sehgal’s experience winning a Grammy for production and the idea of “no boxes”; why Sehgal sees his life like a jazz composition; defining money as a symbol of value; the neurological effects and artistic aspects of money; the currency of the natural world; whether Sehgal sees “money as the root of all evil”; the idea of charity; the politics of money; the internationalization of currency; hyperinflation; gold, and Sehgal’s experience going to the basement of the New York Fed; digital money and bitcoin. Coined: The Rich Life of Money and How Its History Has Shaped Us is available now. For more information on Sehgal visit coinedbook.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 326.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel starts today’s podcast by talking about “robot traders” and major misconceptions. Covel discusses machine learning v. automation and moves into a series of clips that outline trend following philosophy. First, Covel plays a clip from Benoit Mandelbrot to illustrate problems with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Next, Covel plays two clips from Jim Simons, CEO of Renaissance Technologies, about his experiences as a new trader and on 'luck' (Simons is not a fan of fundamental trading). Building on Jim Simons comes a clip from David Harding of Winton Capital, a multi-billion dollar fund with trend following models at the core. Harding talks about his start, models, math, probabilities, and betting. Next, Covel plays a clip from Salem Abraham. Abraham talks about the markets he trades, and why it doesn’t really make a difference where the money comes from. Covel adds clips from Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, the Co-Founder, Chairman & Chief Scientist of CFM. Covel also plays clips from Svante Bergstrom, Ewan Kirk and trend trading legends William Eckhardt and Ed Seykota. These all tie together to attempt to give a trend trading/quant philosophical stance--the attitude and benefits. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 325.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with David Stockman on today’s podcast. Those that follow business and politics in the United States will recognize his name. Stockman has been a businessman, a Congressman, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. Two things caught Covel’s attention: Stockman’s book, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America, and his comments about President Woodrow Wilson. Covel explains. Covel and Stockman discuss his Woodrow Wilson piece; how Wilson brought the US into World War I and how the pain of the 1930’s and the pivot point of the 20th century was connected; why the ATM’s going dark in 2008 wasn’t a true possibility; zero interest rate policy and how we’re forcing people to spend down principal; and how the Fed can generate massive bubbles. David Stockman’s Contra Corner can be found at davidstockmanscontracorner.com. The Great Deformation is available on Amazon.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 324.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Jerry Parker on today’s episode of the podcast. This is Parker’s fourth interview with Michael Covel. Parker is an original Turtle, trained by Richard Dennis. However, since then he has very successfully run a managed money firm called Chesapeake Capital. Covel and Parker discuss a series of tweets written by Parker and use them as a jumping-off point for conversation. Topics include price action, “normal” market behavior; recent moves in the Swiss Franc; paying attention to entries as well as exits; why investors are often their own worst enemy; the first moment that Parker heard about price-based trading; becoming obsessed with asymmetrical risk and reward; why looking at trend following losses is important; why you can tell a system is robust if it has big drawdowns; and backtesting and treating all trades with equal weight. More: www.chesapeakecapital.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 323.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Sophia Roosth on today’s podcast. Roosth is a Harvard professor that Covel first heard quoted on DNA privacy from Davos. Roosth’s research focuses on the twentieth and twenty-first century life sciences. Her first book, based on four years of ethnographic fieldwork, examines how the life sciences are changing at a moment when researchers build new biological systems in order to investigate how biology works. In this work, Roosth asks what happens to “life” as a conceptual category when experimentation and fabrication converge. Covel and Roosth discuss the Davos event; what becomes of privacy in a moment of internet surveillance; having more information out there as a way to control privacy; biological privacy, and whether our DNA is going down a path where it’s a lot more public; discrimination based on genome; genetic McCarthyism; somatic transfer and cloning; the story of Chance the bull; the idea of de-extinction; the ethics of cloning; molecular gastronomy and world hunger. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 322.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Dr. Michael Lardon on today’s podcast. Lardon is one of the premier mental performance coaches in the world, with clients in more than a dozen professional and Olympic sports. His athletes have won major golf championships, Olympic gold medals, Super Bowls and World Series titles, among other achievements. He is an Associate Clinical Professor of Medicine at the University of California San Diego and a Consulting Psychiatrist to the United States Olympic Teams at the Olympic Training Center in Chula Vista, CA. However, Lardon and Covel's conversation is applicable to everyone, not just certain athletes. They talk about Lardon’s early experiences playing professional table tennis; the “slowing down of time” and how it affects performance; the importance of mental performance in sports; Phil Mickelson’s loss at the 2013 Open and his win at the British Open a month later, and how Lardon was assisting him during this period; “the yips”, and what is going on in the mind when someone can no longer perform a simple activity they used to accomplish easily; neurological vs. psychological “yips”; Lardon’s opinion on what’s happening with Tiger Woods currently; narrow, intense focus vs. dropping the intense expenditure of energy when you don’t need it (ie. what do you do with your downtime?); the process of desensitization; the deliberate plan for improvement and the importance of writing things down. For more information on Dr. Michael Lardon, visit drlardon.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 321.mp3
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Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 320.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Salem Abraham on today’s podcast. Abraham is the President of Abraham Trading Company with a 27-year track record (with much trend following success). Over the years, Abraham has been kind enough to offer Covel fantastic insights. Abraham also appeared in Covel’s film, Broke, and is the last chapter of The Complete TurtleTrader. Today, Covel and Abraham cover some topical market moves--the Swiss Franc and Crude Oil among them. Covel and Abraham also discuss living in Asia and Asian economics; a market lesson Abraham first learned in 1987; the recent action of the Swiss Franc; artificially priced markets and the analogy of a dam; Crude Oil as a trend; speculation at the core of Abraham’s business and its effect on markets generally; the effect of Abraham’s grandfather on his work; the influences on Abraham’s thinking and business decisions; location independence; the importance of a link to the outside world; avoiding disaster; and being agnostic to the market. More: www.abrahamtrading.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 319.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Christopher Chabris on today’s podcast. Chabris is an American research psychologist, currently Associate Professor of Psychology and co-director of the Neuroscience Program at Union College in Schenectady, New York, Adjunct Assistant Professor of Neurology at Albany Medical College and a Research Affiliate at the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence. He is best known as the co-author (with Daniel Simons) of the popular science book The Invisible Gorilla, which presents the results of research into attention and other cognitive illusions. Chabris offers a wide take on what’s going on in our minds. Covel and Chabris discuss witnesses, memory, and the legal system; expert witness testimony; “the play that changed poker”; mastery in any field; the connection between chess and memory; Chabris’ interaction with Neil deGrasse Tyson, and how memory affects our outlook; the stock market, prediction, and forecasting; the importance of confidence with regard to predictions; simple rules vs. complex rules; Oprah Winfrey, Malcolm Gladwell, and intuition; and memory and the influx of information coming at us. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 318.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Peter Shankman on today’s episode. Shankman is the classic entrepreneur: he is the author of Nice Companies Finish First and the founder of Help a Reporter Out (HARO), the largest free source repository for journalists in the world. His new book, Zombie Loyalists: Using Great Service to Create Rabid Fans is out now. First, Covel offers up a monologue. Topics include the end of geography and the importance of globalization; gadgets, software, hacks, and websites as the magic elixir; the importance of dedication, commitment, and alone time; exercise; being able to walk away when negotiating; getting off the sidelines; happiness as a choice; and the necessity of having a niche. Covel and Shankman discuss skydiving and the lessons of preparation and mitigating risk; social media compared to the dotcom bubble; and the importance of creating a good product and customer service despite advances in technology. Ending? Covel summons Alan Watts for good measure. For more information on Peter Shankman, visit shankman.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 317.mp3
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Michael Covel interviews Gary Antonacci on today’s podcast. Antonacci focuses on two issues in the quant world: relative strength price momentum with trend following absolute momentum. He’s developed a strategy where he believes it’s best to combine both. His new book is called Dual Momentum Investing. Today, Antonacci makes the case for this strategy. Covel and Antonacci discuss momentum vs. trend; relative strength momentum, cross sectional momentum, absolute momentum, and time series momentum; trend following vs. managed futures as terms; Antonacci’s early history and how he found his way into the career he has today; three legendary traders that crossed paths with Antonacci early on; the efficient market hypothesis as a less-than-solid foundation; buying higher highs; Ray Dalio and risk parity strategies; academic perspectives on momentum; the interaction and correlation between the two momentum strategies (relative and absolute). For more information on Gary Antonacci, visit optimalmomentum.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 316.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Michael Mauboussin today on his second visit to the podcast. Mauboussin is an author ("More Than You Know", "Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition"), investment strategist in the financial services industry, professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Business, and serves on the board of trustees at the Sante Fe Institute (an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute). He is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advises clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making. Covel and Mauboussin discuss multi-disciplinary thinking and its influence on Covel; looking at larger reference classes; the Swiss Franc; Mauboussin’s personal take on the recent oil move; fundamentals and expectation; luck or skill when it comes to trading profits; the paradox of skill, absolute, and relative skill; whether scientific principles of luck exist; defining luck; outcome bias; and the general public perception of behavioral economics. For more information on Michael Mauboussin, visit michaelmauboussin.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 315.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Peter Larson. First, Michael Covel discusses some feedback he’s received from author Jack Schwager about the podcast. Specifically, Schwager brought up the episode from paleontologist Jack Horner. Covel brings another dinosaur hunter to the podcast today: Peter Larson. Larson is an American paleontologist, fossil collector, and president of the Black Hills Institute of Geological Research, a company that excavates, prepares, and sells fossils. He led the team that excavated "Sue", the largest and most complete specimen of Tyrannosaurus rex found to date, and has published numerous scientific and popular works on dinosaur paleontology. A movie based on “Sue”, Dinosaur 13, has been produced as well. You might ask, what’s the connection to Michael Covel? Covel explains that Larson’s story involves government intervention, a massive legal case, and ownership issues in addition to Covel’s personal connection to Larson. Covel and Larson talk about luck’s role in finding dinosaurs; Larson’s personal anecdotes about finding “Sue”; whether Larson knew at the time that he was finding a piece of “land” in a legal sense; the scientific data that Larson was able to glean before the government took the bones; telling a male dinosaur from a female dinosaur; what makes Larson a T-Rex entrepreneur; T-Rex as a predator or scavenger; and the legal case surrounding “Sue”. For more information on Peter Larson, visit BHIGR.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 314.mp3
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Jean-Philippe Bouchaud speaks with Michael Covel on his second visit to the podcast. He is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique. Today, Covel and Bouchaud focus on Bouchaud’s co-authored paper, “Tail Risk Premia vs. Pure Alpha”. Additionally, Covel and Bouchaud discuss his firm’s performance for 2014; whether trend following actually “died” prior to it’s “reappearance” in 2014; what trend following manages to exploit; exploiting vs. exploring; looking at volatility as a precursor to profit; volatility as a measure of risk; trend following as a genuine market anomaly; the behavioral biases in play as oil has fallen fifty percent plus; the feedback Bouchaud has received from peers on his newest paper; whether other strategies exploit a genuine market anomaly; Bouchaud’s philosophy on transparency and "secrets" in his work; and why Bouchaud’s work culture is not a culture of MBA’s. Note: In this episode a white paper is mentioned. There are short (www.trendfollowing.com/cfm-short.pdf) and long (www.trendfollowing.com/cfm-long.pdf) versions. Receive a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 313.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Dan Hill on today’s podcast. Hill is a recognized authority on the role of emotions in consumer and employee behavior. He runs Sensory Logic, a scientific insights firm that analyzes consumers’ facial expressions to help companies better navigate consumers’ emotional decision-making processes. Before the interview, Covel discusses the Swiss Franc, David Harding, and trend following trading in his introduction. Next, Covel and Hill discuss what a face coding expert is; the evolutionary aspect to face coding and the 43 muscles present in the face; emotional decision-making; how Hill found his way personally into this field; why we feel before we think; being hired by the Milwaukee Bucks; the importance of a smile in the heart of a champion; the difference between technical skill and the factors that Hill is looking for; the importance of having the right amount of happiness; some of the limitations of facial coding; how technology is intertwined with facial coding; why a personality like Richard Nixon may never be President again; the say/feel gap; whether we can learn how to avoid negative facial expressions and emotions; a trading system based on the movement of human faces; and where we might see facial coding moving to in the future. For more information on Dan Hill, visit sensorylogic.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win. 

Direct download: 312.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Mebane Faber. Faber is a a noted author (The Ivy Portfolio), blogger, and portfolio manager with Cambria Investment Management. Faber is involved in many different areas of the market, extremely practical and pragmatic. This is Mebane Faber’s third visit to the podcast and he and Covel discuss the podcast medium; trend following, buy & hold, and emotions; anti-fragility; Ray Dalio, risk parity, and his strategies All Weather and Pure Alpha; asset allocation as a buy and hold investor; Faber’s five ETF’s, and his factors for starting one; deflation, inflation, Japan, why traders run out of the store when things are on sale; value investing; and what if governments didn’t meddle with markets. For more information on Mebane Faber, visit mebfaber.com, cambriafunds.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 311.mp3
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Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Daniel Simons. Simons is an experimental psychologist, cognitive scientist, and Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Illinois. Simons is most well known for his work on change blindness and inattentional blindness, two surprising examples of how people can be unaware of information right in front of their eyes. His research interests also include visual cognition, perception, memory, attention, and awareness. Covel relates all this to trading and trend following, particularly the price of oil in early 2015. Covel and Simons discuss Simons’ YouTube success; the definition of inattentional blindness; why our intuition about our own minds is often wrong; money managers and weather forecasters; serial tasking, multitasking, and focus; how Simons became immersed in this area of study; memory and attention, and the myths and misconceptions surrounding them; the notion of intuition. gut decisions, and Simons’ thoughts on Malcolm Gladwell’s “Blink”; the idea of preparation in relation to expert performance; the science behind eyewitness testimony; and how our minds don’t work the way we think they do. For more information on Daniel Simons, go to dansimons.com or invisiblegorilla.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 310.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Mark Mobius on today’s podcast. Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team which is based in 18 global emerging markets offices, and manages emerging markets portfolios. Mobius oversees a team of more than 50 people managing some $45 billion. Covel and Mobius discuss key events that happened along Mobius’ development and moved him to find emerging markets as his passion; growth across Asia; the importance of being on the ground to see what’s happening in China to have a true picture of what’s going on; why what’s happening in China now is entirely different from the USSR in the early 1980’s; Mobius’ view on Vietnam, its economic and constructional changes; the two Koreas, and whether we’ll see one Korea eventually; the impact of both North and South Korea on their own; Mobius’ outlook on Myanmar; Singapore as an emerging market, and as it is compared to a city in the States; India, its growth, and how Mobius sees it moving forward; and the importance of travel, and how it changes everybody that goes out there and experiences it. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 309.mp3
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Michael Covel opens up his first monologue of 2015 with a quote from Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory. There you have it: Willy Wonka completely outlining behavioral economics and proper investing all in a film about candy. Next, Covel quotes John Hussman’s recent piece regarding cognitive dissonance. Today, Covel has three examples of cognitive dissonance. First, Covel speaks of a recent case where a high school student was said to have made 72 million dollars. Of course, the story was false, but Covel explores. Many want to believe that these savants exist, but we all know the truth. Next, Covel discusses Hugh Hendry and why he now believes as an investor you have to sometimes believe in things that don’t necessarily exist. Good strategy doesn’t need to change based on the political winds blowing across the world. Next, Covel gives an example from a CNBC writer named Lawrence Delevingne who wrote recently on “hedge fund robots” doing well in 2014. Covel discusses these “robots” vs. “gut-driven human managers” and picks it apart. Why did trend following have such an excellent year in 2014? Covel explores and notes that trend following isn’t concerned with the previous year--it’s concerned with right now. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 308.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Bryan Caplan on today’s podcast. Caplan is an American economist and professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and blogger for EconLog. He works in public choice theory. His books include The Myth of the Rational Voter and Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids. He has also written extensively on open borders and pacifism. Covel and Caplan discuss voting, rationality; defining “rational irrationality”; what voting patterns in America might look like if the American stock market looked like the Japanese stock market; economic growth in benevolent dictatorships vs. republics like the USA; the anti-poverty program in China; Caplan’s view on immigration and its effect on the economy; the case for more kids, and why Caplan was so passionate and so inspired as to put out a book on the subject; why genetics matter more than the style in which you raise your kids; Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” and wealth and income inequality. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 307.mp3
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Michael Covel talks with Tom Basso, the trader most famously known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager's "New Market Wizards”. Basso, now retired from managing client money, was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. Basso became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998. Today, he is a privat trader. This is Basso’s fourth podcast conversation, and Covel and Basso talk about the 50% drop in oil and why trend followers have done especially well with this price movement; why people like to blame speculators, and the value of speculation; emotional rushes and emotional devastation; mentally rehearsing catastrophic events; focusing 1,000 trades into the future; separating your trading from your political opinion; trend following and behavioral economics; the importance of not letting your trading define you; and Basso’s advice to newcomers to the CTA industry. For more information on Tom Basso, follow him on Twitter at @Basso_Tom. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 306.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Mark Manson on today’s podcast. Manson is an author and personal development consultant. Manson has worked with thousands of people from over 20 countries and his writing offers a different take on the self-help genre. Manson calls it “self help from a first person perspective”. He has sold over 15,000 copies of his book “Models: Attract Women Through Honesty” and almost 400,000 people read his site each month. He’s been published and quoted on CNN, Huffington Post, Business Insider, Yahoo! News, The Sydney Morning Herald and a variety of other publications. He is also the CEO and Founder of Infinity Squared Media LLC. Covel and Manson discuss why people are such ass----- on the internet; internet communication vs. real world communication; becoming desensitized to the internet; how Manson came to his entrepreneurial path and how he was inspired by “The 4-Hour Workweek”; location independence and how travel has changed Manson; consumerism in America; having an excess of choice in your life; the type of business Manson has developed and why it’s been successful; why certain approaches to dating aren't emotionally healthy; our bias against performers; and why Manson refers to himself as “self-help for people who don’t like self-help”. For more information on Mark Manson, visit markmanson.net. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 305.mp3
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Michael Covel digs into the epic 2014 crude oil plunge and the profits that have followed (from the drop!). In breaking apart the issue Covel quotes Byron Wien, the Vice Chairman of Blackstone, on his oil predictions. What good is a prediction if it’s not even close to reality? If Wien can’t predict the price of oil how can the average investor? It’s that simple. Covel adds into the discussion the importance of cutting your losses, and why all successful traders do so. Building on taking a loss, Covel opens up catastrophic loss "imagination". Can you imagine a 75% drop in the stock market? Don’t be caught like the fundamental guys with no plan. Prepare for it. Covel also discusses why having a system means not having to be "definite"; having an approach based on the fact that you don’t know what is going to happen next; and why trend following has been buried in the mainstream media. The oil plunge in 2014 has been historic and offers a great example of trend following success in action. Would you like a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 304.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Charles Faulkner today on the podcast. Faulkner is an author, trader, and an expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. Covel and Faulkner discuss the notion of fictional people and why famous figures in finance are “fictional”; the importance of narratives, stories, and metaphors; the halo effect and deluding ourselves; the difference between a story and a strategy; the nature of independent thinking; herd behavior; ego, ignorance, and authority; the five different types of minds: the experiencing mind, the imaginative mind, the reasoning mind, the reflective mind, and the generative mind; system one and system two; why words don’t change people but experience does; experience base and the difference between amateur and professional traders; the two kinds of market wizards; language in the context of the five different types of minds; the importance of asking “how” does the market work over “why”; the importance of luck and time in the case of Warren Buffett; why you shouldn’t get your excitement from trading. For more information on Charles Faulkner, visit charlesfaulkner.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 303.mp3
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Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Zbigniew Hermaszewski & Natasha Reeve-Gray, two of the four founding partners of Altis Partners--a very successful systematic and primarily trend following money management firm. Covel, Hermaszewski, and Reeve-Gray discuss Covel’s recent experiences traveling in Asia; the advantages of location independence; early triggers that led Hermaszewski and Reeve-Gray into the systematic trading world and away from the efficient market hypothesis; why Hermaszewskii was motivated to go down the particular path he went down; the advantages of a physics background when applied to trading; looking for predicability in the markets; how Altis uses predictability in the context of their world; the four broad types of market behavior in Altis’ program; trend following and persistence; inter-market relationships; why there are no “manual” inputs in Altis’ systematic program; portfolio construction and why Altis is different from its peers; applying the same models to all markets; and the collegial atmosphere amongst London CTAs. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 302.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Jim Rogers on today’s podcast. Rogers is an American businessman, investor and author currently based in Singapore. He is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of Austrian School of economics. Covel gives some of his personal history with Rogers, noting that he also first read about him in the Market Wizards book. Covel also notes that Rogers’ Investment Biker book inspired him to travel. Covel joins Rogers for an in-person conversation from Singapore. They discuss why it shows that the kind of people that travel are the kind of people you want in your country; infrastructure in China; stereotypes of various countries in Asia; China’s military; current Fed policy in America; what “can-do” spirit can do in a state of decline; why the next crisis might be worse than the last; the importance of language skills; participating in big long-term bets with regard to countries; and why, if he could, Rogers would put all of his money into North Korea. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 301.mp3
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Michael Covel presents a monologue and interviews Travis Jamison on today’s podcast. To start Covel reflects on the first 300 episodes of his podcast. He talks the start of the podcast, key guests and the overall uniqueness of the show. Covel also discusses massive September 2014 trend following performance, whether you can time the top, survivorship bias and the trend following is dead crowd. Next Covel talks with Travis Jamison. Jamison is the founder of Supremacy SEO. He’s a passionate entrepreneur, and a man known for high-level search engine optimization (SEO) chops. Covel and Jamison discuss search in general and search engine optimization; how the fascination with search triggered with Jamison; the idea of manipulation; Google and a monopoly, and some of the competition; Google’s dominance; Google’s definition of “quality”; the EPIC browser; the mindset of being honest on the internet; black hat and grey hat; Google’s penalties, and what can happen when you go too far; if there’s any recovery after being penalized by Google; competitors affecting SEO; Panda, Penguin, and Hummingbird: some of the Google updates; what the future might hold for search. For more information on Travis Jamison, visit supremacyseo.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 300.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Scot Billington and Jon Boorman on today’s podcast. Scot Billington is one of the managers of Covenant Capital along with Brince Wilford. Billington is the Chief Manager, Head Trader, and is responsible for all system development at Covenant. Covel and Billington discuss his firm’s exceptional performance in September of 2014; why low volume and low volatility tend to be accompanied by low returns; whether all of Billington’s trend following trading is predicated on a weekly system; Billington’s background and what got him into the systematic trend following space; why simplicity is the ultimate sophistication; marketing vs. trading reality; why certain investors try and disguise their trend following strategies as something else; why trend following is one of the most repeatable, teachable strateges; why the world still believes in the efficient market hypothesis; why trends continue to emerge as a function of the marketplace; the idea of a barbell strategy; and why upside volatility is not such a bad thing. Next, Covel talks with Jon Boorman in his second visit to the podcast. Boorman is the President and CEO of Broadsword Capital, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser in Charlotte, NC. Boorman has spent over two decades in global markets, witnessing first-hand some of the most tumultuous periods in financial history. Boorman started the Alpha Capture blog in January 2013 to keep a record of trading signals and market commentary, and demonstrate to a wider audience what could be achieved through trend following. The primary aim has always been to inform and educate. Covel and Boorman discuss the fear of public speaking; the idea of ego in the context of both trend following and buy & hold systems; why you’d seek to minimize rather than eliminate both ego and emotion in the context of trading; how Boorman and Jerry Parker connected and Parker’s early influence on Boorman; both Parker and Boorman’s views on exit strategies; how Twitter changes the level of access we have to each other; whether Boorman’s RIA might move into a fund structure; and process vs. outcome. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 299.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Emanuel Derman on today’s podcast. Derman is a South African-born businessman and writer, best known as a quantitative analyst. His books include My Life As A Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance as well as Models Behaving Badly. Derman is a Columbia University professor and formerly at Goldman Sachs. Covel and Derman discuss why economics can be an 'incestuous' field; economics as a moral science; why all four of the US investment banks were not allowed to go by the wayside; Derman’s background and his PhD in theoretical physics; Derman’s early eye-opening experiences at Goldman Sachs; model building, and how Derman was indoctrinated into the world of model building; the financial model and science and the physics model and science; short volatility models vs. long volatility models; how one estimates risk; models vs. theories; whether Derman finds a certain amount of pushback from others in the academic community. For more information on Emanuel Derman, visit emanuelderman.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 298.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Gabriel Oettingen on today’s podcast. Gabriele Oettingen is a Professor of Psychology at New York University and the University of Hamburg. Her research focuses on how we think about the future, and how this impacts cognition, emotion, and behavior. Her first book is called Rethinking Positive Thinking. This is an interesting conversation for Covel--Oettingen is looking at data, just like traders would, but she is looking at data on motivation and positive thinking. Is too much positive thinking a problem? It can be. Is there a way to go about thinking about the future, and thinking positively? Oettingen has a framework and structure that can help us all. Covel and Oettingen discuss positive thinking, optimism and over-confidence; how positive thinking can reign in your sense of urgency; the effect of positive thinking on us from a scientific viewpoint; whether Oettingen views her work as an attack on the self-help industry; Oettingen’s process and how she views data; the WOOP (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan) process; understanding each component part of WOOP; “ah-ha” moments in Oettingen’s early development; the idea of WOOP as mental contrasting; non-conscious processes. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 297.mp3
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Michael Covel interviews Ewan Kirk on today’s podcast. Kirk is the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation. Covel and Kirk discuss how consistent and predictable profits are the Holy Grail--you’re never going to get there. Covel and Kirk also explore Kirk’s background, and how someone with a PhD in mathematical physics ends up going to work for Goldman Sachs; why computer programming is “today’s literacy”; standing out from the crowd; trend following in the European scene vs. America; weighting positions based on risk; talking to clients and explaining that losses are statistically inevitable; whether the demand for discretionary traders is waning; how discretionary traders look at a trader like Kirk who is 100% systematic; why discretionary intervention in a systematic trading strategy disqualifies it from being truly systematic; proving a strategy as broken rather than proving that it’s right; why randomness is everything; uncertainty and convictions about technique; capturing the realism of the world in your trading strategy; what actually benefits the economy, society, and the world; seeking client feedback and understanding a client’s drivers; and the importance of consistent marginal improvements. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 296.mp3
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Michael Covel interviews both Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink on today’s podcast. Gigerenzer joins Covel for his second appearance on the podcast. He is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy. Gigerenzer’s new book is Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions. Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer’s views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin’s ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk savvy and ordering in upscale restaurants, why Risk Savvy is an alternative to many other outlooks; the two tools to being risk savvy; the gaze heuristic and athletics; complex problems and simple heuristics. Next, Covel speaks with Brian Wansink. Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. His newest book is Slim By Design. Covel and Wansink discuss weight and obesity; our genes and environment as an effect on our health; “doing what skinny people do” and studying buffets; modeling the behavior of slim people; the advantages of chopsticks; the power of the grocery shopper of the household; triggers and tips to avoid unhealthy behavior that happens in restaurants; correlations between where you sit in a restaurant and eating choices; the three types of people in the context of nutrition; the influence of the environment on our eating habits; being slim by design vs. being slim by willpower; pursuing happiness vs. pursuing a purpose. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 295.mp3
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Michael Covel speaks with Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek on today’s podcast--two separate interviews back to back. Nigol Koulajian's firm is Quest Partners, LLC and is approaching one billion AUM. Koulajian has a very interesting take on trend following--specifically his take on replicating famous trend following strategies. Koulajian and Covel discuss Koulajian’s background and entrepreneurism within Lebanese culture; how Koulajian got his start, and how he found his way into the systematic strategies he employs today; the influence of Van Tharp; the importance of practices like transcendental meditation and yoga on the mental side of trading and in the context of Koulajian’s work today as a fund manager. the S&P 500 as a trading system; crowd psychology; replication strategies; price action as a trigger for different strategies; volatility, volatility compression, and why volatility is not the way to measure risk in the markets anymore; the Flash Crash; and trend following as a hedge to equity risk. Next, Michael Covel speaks with Donald Wieczorek. Wieczorek’s firm is Purple Valley Capital. Covel and Wieczorek discuss Wieczorek’s early track record; Salem Abraham; drawdowns; Wieczorek’s first exposure to trend following; why losing early in your trading career can be a good thing; why you don’t need to predict market movement to make money; Jack Schwager and the Market Wizards series; and why systematic trading is more than just the technical system. Next, Covel and Wieczorek break apart some of Wieczorek’s monthly performance windows (trendfollowing.com/don.pdf), picking apart the psychology and context of certain months in Wieczorek’s career. Covel and Wieczorek continue on to talk about correlation between famous trend following traders; volatility and risk; and the value of crisis alpha. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 294.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel presents “The State Episode” featuring interviews with Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith. State power and central planning are two of the topics on today’s show, and both guests love taking a stab at the state. First, Michael Covel speaks with Doug Casey. Casey is the founder and chairman of Casey Research, a provider of paid subscription newsletter services espousing libertarian viewpoints as the justification for the purchase of highly speculative microcap stocks, precious metals, and other investments. Casey and Covel discuss what it’s like having traveled to over 175 countries and where one can find social and economic liberty today in this world; the advantages of being a perpetual tourist; why Casey describes himself as an anarchist; if whether there is a purpose anymore to voting in the United States of America; loyalty to the country where you were born; those who rule out the possibility of a financial panic in the future; quantitative easing and currency debasement; and what was the trigger for Casey’s turn at life as a global traveler. Next, Michael Covel speaks with Charles Hugh Smith. Smith is an American writer and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site "Of Two Minds". Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC's top alternative financial sites. Smith's economic works stress the value and efficacy of decentralizing power and wealth, the individual's power of self-determination and the value of community, which in his view has been diminished by the state. Smith and Covel discuss how winners and are being selected by the state as exemplified by the 2008 financial crisis; alliances between corporations and the state; why there might be an uproar if equity markets were not at all-time highs; what happens when the typical wage earner can no longer substitute debt for earned income; stagnant wages and tradable labor; building your life around non state controlled opportunities; the decentralization of power and wealth; and the reliance on secrecy in politics to avoid accountability. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 293.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Christopher Cruden on today’s podcast. Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management. Covel and Cruden discuss why price is an unimpeachable fact; early “lightbulb” moments that brought Cruden to the style of trading he practices today; the notion of going currency only; why Cruden’s program is akin to a raincoat in bad weather; riding increased volatility and increased directional trending; getting clients to understand that you cannot force a system to make money; benchmark selection and time period selection; why the S&P 500 is a trading system; performance drivers; the duration of trades; why if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it; how Cruden’s strategy would change if Europe reverted back to before the introduction of the Euro; how markets teach humility; why Cruden only trades once a day. For more information on Christopher Cruden, go to inschinvest.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 292.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Steven Kotler. Kotler is an American bestselling author, journalist, and entrepreneur. His articles have appeared in over 70 publications, including The New York Times Magazine, LA Times, Wired, GQ, Discover, Popular Science, Outside, Men’s Journal, Details and National Geographic Adventure. He is best known for his non-fiction books, including the New York Times bestseller Abundance, A Small Furry Prayer, and West of Jesus. His new book is The Rise of Superman. Covel starts off with a personal anecdote about his experiences with 'flow', and Kotler goes onto explain the topic based on Covel’s experiences. Covel and Kotler also discuss synonyms for flow; flow in basketball and other sports; group flow; pattern recognition; the neurological explanation for flow; the four stages of flow; why flow is not just a binary state; spiritual experiences compared to flow states; brain activity during flow states; the “deep now”; getting to the flow state with drugs; the flow state and the act of being on stage; why you need to take risks to get into flow; social fear, risk, and pain vs. physical fear, risk, and pain; method acting, screen presence, and flow; the military and flow research; risk and comfort; the balance between challenges and skills; getting comfortable with being uncomfortable; the fight or flight mindset; and future research into flow. For more information on Steven Kotler, visit flowgenomeproject.co. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 291.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Rzepczynski. Rzepczynski is a Founder and Chief Investment Officer at AMPHI Capital Management. Prior to co-founding AMPHI Capital Management, he was the CEO of the Fund Group at FourWinds Capital Management, where he oversaw alternative investments. Rzepczynski was also President and Chief Investment Officer at John W. Henry & Co., an iconic Commodity Trading Advisor. He is on the Advisory Board of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA), the Associate Editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments, and a former board member of the FIA Futures Industry Association. Covel and Rzepczynski discuss the advantages of podcasting as a format over traditional media outlets; why prices are “primal”; prices as a heuristic; Rzepczynski’s ah-ha moment that brought him to the heuristic of price; why a complex education doesn’t necessarily mean you should use a complex system; why knowing the reasoning behind price movement is unnecessary; VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous; VUCA in the context of portfolio management; the zen of trading and portfolio management; the importance of passion in investing; the notion of over-diversification; dynamic allocation; convergent vs. divergent; the improbability principle; tail events and preparing for the unexpected; the notion of systematic vs. discretionary; how trend following is represented in the mainstream media; complexity; risk and return; volatility and complacency. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 290.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Alex Tabarrok and David Nott on today’s two-part podcast, which Covel affectionately calls “The Libertarian Episode”. First, Covel speaks with Alex Tabarrok, co-author of the Marginal Revolution website. He’s an economist at Covel’s alma mater, George Mason University. Covel and Tabarrok discuss China and the importance of teaching Chinese to American children; the greatest anti-poverty program in the world; the difficulty of improving the infrastructure of the United States; regulation and innovation; interest groups; benevolent dictators; the need for a democracy in an information age; innovation in the current American education system; why the American education system is focused on getting you to work for the man; women in the American education system; innovation, intellectual property and patents; the cumulative properties of innovation; grounds for optimism in the United States when it comes to innovation; how George Mason University became a libertarian economist hotspot; if Europe is following the path of Japan; why the European monetary union was a mistake; and why travel can create optimism. Next, Covel speaks with David Nott, president of The Reason Foundation--an organization that is all about free minds and free markets. Covel and Nott discuss The Reason Foundation and what it means to be a libertarian today; how Nott explains being a libertarian to people; how the actor and comedian Drew Carey came to be involved with The Reason Foundation; finding the optimism to stay focused on swaying people to the founding principles of our country; politics in China; the 2008 financial crisis, state control, and Reason’s response to the bailouts; common sense notions; pension reform; drug policy reform; the cultural policies surrounding prohibition; expanding the idea of liberty to younger people; Vernon Smith and Walter Williams. For more information on The Reason Foundation visit reason.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 289.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel interviews Frank Curzio and Robin Griffiths. First, Covel speaks with Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates. Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle. Next, Covel interviews Robin Griffiths, Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC. Griffiths comes at it from a technical perspective. Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths’ history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn’t hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 288.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Toby Crabel of Crabel Capital Management. Covel first reached out to Crabel, who is a short term systematic trader, in 2005. Crabel’s approach is very different from Covel’s, but there are some commonalities: price action driven, systems, models, risk management. But Crabel is working on a whole different time frame, turning his portfolio over typically in less than a day. Crabel, a former pro tennis player, has a philosophical nature and discusses how he executes these philosophies in the trading world. Crabel and Covel discuss Crabel’s history as a pro tennis player and the connection between tennis and the drive he has in the asset management field today; longevity and consistency in tennis and trading; where Crabel stands with the total number of systems he employs; the source of Crabel’s profits and the philosophy behind it; price action; winning and losing volatility; why Crabel needs price movement and volume; the idea of price shocks and the importance of being aware of them; the process of moving from high drawdowns to a much lower drawdown; the importance of diversity; early lightbulb moments that informed Crabel’s trading style; Crabel’s experience with Victor Niederhoffer; how the philosophy of Objectivism has informed Crabel’s life; the liquidity of futures markets; and the importance of persistence. For more information on Toby Crabel, visit crabel.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 287.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Alex Greyserman. Greyserman is Chief Scientist at managed futures firm ISAM. He is also a professor at Columbia University. Greyserman’s new book with previous podcast guest Kathryn Kaminski is titled Trend Following With Managed Futures. Covel and Greyserman discuss the idea of young college graduates writing articles about the death of trend following while firms like Greyserman’s continue to have tremendous success; alternatives to thinking only 'long stocks'; Greyserman’s first meeting with Larry Hite and how they have come to have such a career together; why trend following is about more than getting on the right side of the S&P trade; the difference between cross-sectional momentum and time series momentum; the phrase “crisis alpha” and why trend following does well in times of crisis; the cost of not having trend following in your portfolio; benchmarking and diversification; why the worst thing you can do is “trend follow a trend follower”; the science of trend following; speculation; trend following your life--not just the markets; dispersion among trend following traders; and the effect of a higher rate environment. For more information on Alex Greyserman, go to isam.com or visit Amazon to find his book with Kathryn Kaminski, Trend Following with Managed Futures. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 286.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Anthony Todd. Todd is the CEO of Aspect Capital, one of the most successful managed futures trend following firms. Todd co-founded Aspect in September 1997. Before that, he was with AHL. Covel and Todd discuss why prices aren’t random; finding an inefficiency that the academic financial community refuses to acknowledge; the idea of “predictable” patterns in the market; the desire to know static positions; how crowd behavior drives trends; addressing misconceptions; using fundamentals in a systematic way; defining Todd’s medium-term style of trend following; why “it’s less about the genius of the trade and more about the repeatability of the approach”; how long you can be in a particular market before you give up on it; client understanding of trend following drawdowns; the phraseology of “crisis alpha”; the culture that Todd has built at Aspect; and Todd’s advice to young entrepreneurs. For more information on Anthony Todd, visit aspectcapital.com. Receive complimentary trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 285.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Jason Fried. Fried is the founder and CEO of Basecamp (formerly 37Signals). Fried is also the co-author of the book Rework, which is about new ways to conceptualize working and creating. Fried and Covel discuss the first dollar Fried made online and other formative experiences; keeping business simple; making something more valuable than the dollars people give you; the intimacy of exchanging money; the idea of doing less than your competitors to beat them; building an audience; the “real world”; why an MBA program might not teach you much about entrepreneurism; corporate structure; focusing on what will not change; zen and the moment of right now; not focusing too far into the future; Fried’s experience with Jeff Bezos; and the idea of improvisation or “winging it” in business. For more information on Jason Fried, visit basecamp.com or follow him on Twitter at @jasonfried. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 284.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel interviews Roland Austrup. Austrup is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at Integrated managed Futures, part of the IAM group out of Canada. Austrup’s firm comes at trading from a slightly different perspective: very systematic, but also using fundamentals systematically. Austrup and Covel discuss how Austrup got started in the industry, and whether he was always a “quant” thinker; early experiences with Ed Seykota; whether Austrup uses a systematic use of fundamentals or a discretionary use of fundamentals; why systematic can be frightening to certain people; managing risk and the return to risk profile; why Austrup targets a downside volatility of 13%; why “the returns will take care of themselves” if you manage risk correctly; trading trends and not market noise; being on the right side of a trend; the phrase “equity-like returns”; reviewing trend following performance in recent years; why Austrup’s strategy is not based on prediction; the importance of a broadly diversified portfolio; lack of correlation to traditional long-only equities strategies; and the current low rate environment. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 283.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Kathryn Kaminski on today’s podcast. Kaminski is deputy managing director the institute for financial research (SIFR) Stockholm Sweden. She’s also a contributor to CME Group. She earned her PhD at the MIT Sloan School of Management. At the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, she conducted research on financial heuristics in collaboration with Professor Andrew W. Lo. Her new book, with Alex Greyserman, is "Trend Following with Managed Futures: The Search for Crisis Alpha.". Covel and Kaminski discuss survivorship bias; Kaminski’s background and upbringing; convergent risk-taking strategies and divergent risk-taking strategies; social networking as an example of risk; Apple as an example of convergent/divergent; the importance of failure; the efficient market hypothesis, the idea that trend following is “voodoo”, and the lack of transparency in trend following; critics of trend following; Kaminski’s “ah-ha” moment with trend following; why trend following works in times of crisis; the adaptive markets hypothesis; looking at markets like ecologies; divergence and “punctured equilibrium”; the process of going back 800 years analyzing trend following; the idea of black boxes; and the acceptance of trend following. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 282.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Vineer Bhansali on today’s podcast. Bhansali is a managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO. His most recent book is "Tail Risk Hedging". He has 24 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in theoretical particle physics from Harvard University. His new white paper is out titled “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”. Covel and Bhansali discuss “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”; trend following in the classical sense; how trend following started to become part of the discussion at PIMCO; introducing new ideas to PIMCO, corporate culture, and to clients; the three hypotheses tested in “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”; currency trading and trend following returns; why larger trend following shops may have trouble getting into smaller markets; trend following across a diversified portfolio and classical trend following approaches; connecting Bhansali’s hobbies to the quantitative world; structure and thinking in terms of code; imagining and building simulations; being distribution aware; and why being at all-time highs is not the time to feel satisfied. To read “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”, visit PIMCO. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 281.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Joey Reiman and John Brenkus on today’s podcast. First, Joey Reiman, who runs Brighthouse, has been called the “father of ideation”. He’s emerged as the subject matter expert in the area of purpose inspired leadership, marketing, and innovation. His breakthrough purpose methodology and frameworks have been adopted by the likes of the Boston Consulting Group, Procter & Gamble, The Coca-Cola Company, McDonald’s, KPMG, and many other Fortune 500 companies across the globe. As an adjunct professor at the Goizueta School of Business at Emory University, he teaches tomorrow’s executives his revolutionary theories and applications for purpose-inspired profit. Covel and Reiman discuss Reiman’s background and mission in life; looking for meaning; figuring out your “why”; the process of teaching, and the areas where certain people may get tripped up; looking back to your beginnings; the destructiveness of outside voices; calmness and contemplation; solitude vs. aloneness; “money doesn’t create ideas--ideas create money”; why daydreaming isn’t necessarily a bad thing; creativity and environments; changing the world through changing your routine; routine and creativity; thinking with your heart as much as your mind; Apple vs. Google; raw talent, creativity, and environment; lucky people and “yes” people; the power of “slow”; and the importance of storytelling. The second part of this episode is with John Brenkus. Brenkus is the host of the ESPN show, Sport Science. Sport Science is an ongoing television series that explores the science and engineering underlying athletic endeavors. Anything about statistics and science has the potential to inspire Covel and with John Brenkus, he goes straight into it; Also discussed: what triggered the science and sports connection in Brenkus’ brain; science and martial arts; measuring human performance; why success doesn’t follow a straight line; Brenkus’ college experiences and how they are relevant to his work today; the idea of physical limits being reached; why Brenkus became a crash test dummy; the advantage of applying science to any aspect of life; and the Iron Man competition. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 280.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:17am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Broadie. Broadie is the Carson Family Professor of Business and Vice Dean at the Columbia Business School. His research focuses on quantitative finance and sports analytics. His golf research has appeared in academic journals and many golf publications. He developed the new strokes gained approach to analyze the performance of amateur and professional golfers and worked with the PGA Tour on their implementation of the strokes gained putting stat. His newest book is called Every Shot Counts. Covel says: We all know about Moneyball. It looks like Broadie has carved out that niche for himself in golf science. Covel isn’t a huge golf fan, but when it comes to sports and science and statistics, Covel sees the trend following parallels. Covel and Broadie discuss how he became, in Covel’s words, the “Bill James of golf”; how Broadie connected his finance work to the sport of golf; why certain golfers win; why approach shots are the most important; “drive for show, putt for dough”; how Broadie started, the software he used, and how he got better data; whether Broadie had any sense of where the data might go when he first collected it; power as a separator; the connection between sports anaylitics, business analytics, and investing; the psychology of golf; first putts vs. second putts; the world golf rankings, and how these can be fixed. For more information on Mark Broadie, visit everyshotcounts.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 279.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Larry Swedroe on today’s podcast. Swedroe is a Buckingham Asset Management principal. He is also a principal and co-founder of BAM Advisor Services, LLC, and serves as the director of research for both entities. Swedroe has authored or co-authored fourteen books and comes at investing from an evidence-based approach. Covel and Swedroe have different vantage points, but there are some commonalities in their thinking. They discuss forecasters and prediction; the three types of forecasters; confirmation bias; how your political affiliation might change your willingness to listen to forecasts; value perspective vs. momentum perspective; the anomaly of momentum; the evidence-based thinking approach; momentum trading in 2008; how Swedroe prepares for the unexpected; not treating the unlikely like it’s impossible; managing your risk; process vs. outcome; the equity risk premium and bear markets; commonplace crises; planning ahead; and diversification attempts to get outside of equities. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 278.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel opens up relating a Bob Dylan lyric to uncertainty. You can’t tell what’s going to happen tomorrow; you can’t tell what’s going to happen to people in your life. You can just go with it--you can just keep on keeping on. But predicting tomorrow, thinking that you have an explanation as to how it’s going to actually unfold? You’re kidding yourself if you think you can predict tomorrow. People are paid a lot of money to pretend that they can predict tomorrow. But it is pretending, no doubt about it. Covel moves into his main topic for the day, noting that since March of 2009, stocks have taken off. It’s a massive trend--a trend following dream for stocks. Covel also sees that the fundamental guys look at the all-time highs with justifications. Trend followers have no justifications. There have been millions of words since March of 2009 written by fundamental traders justifying the all-time highs, and people get paid a lot of money to write these justifications. What will all those words count for if the S&P makes another 50% drop? How do you make a fundamental decision in the face of a game where fundamentally, the only thing you really have is “can you predict what the Federal Reserve will do next?” Covel also shares some words of wisdom from trend following trader Jerry Parker that he obtained through a recent email, as well as words from Tom Basso and David Cheval. These traders all agree on one thing: ride the trend. Building on these thoughts, Covel moves into talking about football, Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia Eagles, Hal Mumme, and Mike Leach. Covel uses this as a metaphor for why you can’t be a trend following trader in one market alone. So, if you can’t predict tomorrow, what can you do? You can take what’s given. You can take the trend that arrives. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 277.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Richard Lewis. Lewis is the author of When Cultures Collide and When Teams Collide. He is a cross-cultural expert who has been studying language and communication his entire career. He’s traveled to 130+ countries and speaks eleven different languages. Why have a language and communications expert on a trend following trading show? Covel explains: We live in a complete and real world. You’re not just a trend following robot. There are many facets to life and the ability to communicate can’t be ignored. Covel and Lewis discuss how Lewis’ love affair with language started; the best way to start learning a language; travel as a “magic elixir” of sorts; the Lewis model; cultural differences in language, and what Lewis means by linear-active, multi-active, and reactive; the idea of losing face in the context of cross-cultural communication; microculture and macroculture; cross-cultural teams vs. homogenous teams; normal and abnormal in a cultural context; paperwork and punctuality in different cultures; why the linear-active person confronts with logic, the multi-active person confronts emotionally, and the reactive person is never confronting; and why there’s much more to making a deal than just quantity and price. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 276.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Joel Mokyr on today’s podcast. Marc Andreessen, one of the founders of Netscape, tweeted that Mokyr was one of his heroes. This intrigued Covel, and hence his desire to have Mokyr on the show. Mokyr is a economic historian at Northwestern University. He focuses on technological progress, and how it affects growth. From Mokyr’s perspective, we haven’t seen anything yet. He’s not trying to predict what will happen next; he’s just confident and ready that big things will continue to happen. Covel and Mokyr define technology; the notion of playing God with technology; how technology and economic growth are intertwined; why screwing up is part of technology; the acceleration of technology; new ways of measuring growth; anesthesia and antibiotics as technologies and imagining new technologies as revolutionary as them; moving from a wheat and steel economy into an information economy; the factory, the separation between firm and household, and the Industrial Revolution; the death of distance; why technology is often not reflected in the GDP; solving the language barrier through technology; why the global acceptance of the English language is driven by technology; why innovation isn’t natural to us; the declining respect of the writings of previous generations; why the median age will continue to increase; why we are moving into a mass-customization society; changes in material science; and the best way to think about the future. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 275.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel welcomes Guy Kawasaki. For those of you that pay attention to being an entrepreneur, Kawasaki’s books have been invaluable over the last decade. Currently, he is the chief evangelist of Canva, an online graphic design tool. Formerly, he was an advisor to the Motorola business unit of Google and chief evangelist of Apple. Covel and Kawasaki discuss a lesson learned from Steve Jobs: “Some things need to be believed to be seen.” Covel and Kawasaki also discuss why being a consultant or an investment banker are two of the worst first jobs you can get; working in sales, and Kawasaki’s early experience in the jewelry business; some of the most valuable attributes of a good salesman; marketing, social media, and why you’d want to have a rabid fan with fifteen followers rather than just another blurb on the back of your book from the so-called big name; why a book review in The New York Times isn’t as important as it used to be; the Amazon and Hachette conflict, and why Amazon is still the best thing to happen to authors in a long time; the two types of people in the world--baker vs. eater; how Kawasaki manages his time; looking at your social media presence as core to your existence; disruptive high growth opportunities; introversion and getting better at standing on stage. For more information on Guy Kawasaki, follow him on Google Plus. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 274.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Rande Howell. Sometimes new and experienced traders only want to focus on the system--the rules. They forget the psychology and the mental aspects of trading. Howell has a therapeutic background combined with personal coaching in the fields of human potential and leadership. He has fifteen years of practice as a licensed professional counselor with a Masters in Counseling. Covel notes: if your mind is messed up, it doesn’t matter what system you have--you’re going to fail. Covel and Howell present an interesting conversation to get you in the spirit of the mind. Their topics include what the performance mind is in regards to trading; trading, emotions, and uncertainty; why irrational pessimism is deadly in trading; emotional regulation and mastering emotions; the blurry line between the casino and trading, particularly in Asia; euphoria vs. fear in a trading context; why what you’re afraid of owns you; Jungian archetypes; the Myers-Briggs instrument; biological threat vs. psychological discomfort; the mistake of using trading to measure your worth; getting your emotions right but your strategy wrong; why success in one endeavor doesn’t necessarily mean success in trading; the importance of patience; and the panther vs. the African lion. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 273.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Dan Buettner and John Ratey on today’s podcast. In this two part episode, Covel explains that these two individual’s research is as important for your investing, trading, and entrepreneurial success as any one system, technique, or way of living you might have. Buettner is an American explorer, educator, author and public speaker. He holds world records for endurance bicycling. He is also involved in “blue zone” research and looks at demographics and longevity. John J. Ratey, MD, is an Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, research synthesizer, speaker, and best selling author. His book is called Spark: The Revolutionary New Science Of Exercise In The Brain. Bottom line, everything in your life can change with exercise. If you want to be a fantastic investor, trader, or entrepreneur and your body and mind is not in shape, you have to take a second look. With Buettner, Covel explores age and longevity; “blue zones”; epiphanies and lightbulb moments; “forgetting to die”; loneliness; stress; sacred daily rituals; napping and happy hour; sacred places; relationships and sex. For more information on Dan Buettner go to bluezones.com. With Ratey, Covel discusses exercise as the magic elixir for the brain; prescription drugs and anti-depressants; the joy of movement; exercising the mind; autism; BDNF (brain-derived neuropathic factor); and ADHD and exercise in children. For more information about John Ratey, go to johnratey.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.  

Direct download: 272.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel starts off today’s podcast by playing “Soothe Me”, a classic song. There’s no doubt about it: it’s soothing to have all-time highs in the equity market. Today, Covel wants a different perspective from what is out there in mainstream media. First, Covel talks about the S&P 500 index. The S&P is a trading system. It is a specific grouping of stocks put together with certain weightings and certain rules, and it trades in a certain way. And it has to stick to those rules. Covel talks about how the S&P is a system despite most people not knowing that it is one. Covel compares this system to a trend following system (and notes how trend following is applicable to stocks too). Covel talks about the dangers of correlation if you apply your trend following strategy to only equities, and the importance of diversification across different markets. Next, Covel looks at the S&P system vs. trend following systems in the context of crisis, and questions where the S&P would be without zero interest rate policy and Fed intervention. Is the S&P trading system that good that it will be at all time highs forever? Covel moves on to talk about black swans and anti-fragility in the context of the S&P trading system. Finishing up, Covel discusses absolute risk and relative risk. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win. 

Direct download: 271.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:16pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Laurie Santos on today’s podcast. Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans. Covel and Santos discuss some of Santos’ early “ah-ha” moments; teaching monkeys about currencies; whether the monkey economy is as irrational as ours; the endowment effect; how monkeys’ behavior in markets quantitatively matches human behavior; whether some monkeys took to the experimental economy better than others; mistakes and predictable errors; why humans might be uniquely irrational when it comes to enjoying what we pay more for; Vernon Smith’s work; relationships between Santos’ work and the financial crisis of 2008; bubbles, monkeys, and Daniel Kahneman; the “G.I. Joe fallacy”; and why we have trouble accepting cognitive limitations rather than our biological limitations. For more information on Laurie Santos visit www.yale.edu/caplab. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 270.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel welcomes Robert Aumann the fourth individual that has received a Nobel Prize in economics to appear on his podcast. Covel and Aumann discuss conflict and cooperation through game theory analysis; Aumann has a very interesting way of looking at the world via his game theory perspective. Aumann and Covel talk about his first experience meeting John Nash and Aumann’s early background; what game theory is trying to accomplish; the economic definition of rationality; the idea of a strategy matrix; the world champions of peace and the best way to maintain peace; the 2008-09 bailouts from Aumann’s perspective and a game theory outlook; behavioral economics; game theory, diplomats, and the Cuban Missile Crisis; the existence of nuclear weapons and the Cold War. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 269.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Gregory Morris on today’s podcast. Morris is Sr. Vice President, Chief Technical Analyst, and Chairman of the Investment Committee for Stadion Money Management, LLC. He also serves as the chairman of the Station Trust Board. In this capacity Greg educates institutional and individual clients on the merits of technical analysis and why Stadion utilizes a technical rules-based model. Greg oversees the management of over $5.5 Billion in assets in six mutual funds, separate accounts, and retirement plans. Investing With The Trend is his new book. Covel and Morris discuss Morris’ history as a US Navy fighter pilot; the checklist and how foundational it is to trading; how Morris had his first exposure and understanding of technical analysis; Russian Roulette and trading; risk vs. uncertainty; process and predictions; having a set of daily actions; and learning lessons through failure. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 268.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Dennis Gartman on today’s podcast. Gartman is the editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter. Gartman appears on CNBC, ROB-TV and Bloomberg television, discussing commodities and the capital markets, and speaks before various associations and trade groups around the world. Covel and Gartman discuss how Gartman first got started; Chicago trading in the late 70’s to the mid 80’s; why you should never add to a losing position; buying strength and selling weakness; systems from Gartman’s perspective, and keeping your systems simple; being patient with winning trades and impatient with losers; Gartman’s daily grind and process; mass psychology, efficient markets, and behavioral economics; Gartman’s thoughts on the market today and geopolitical events; and how we hear about geopolitical events today compared to the past. For more information on Dennis Gartman, visit thegartmanletter.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 267.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:29am EDT

Michael Covel opens up today’s monologue by talking about a music video that he thinks sums up today’s society. Next, Covel highlights a clip of David Harding talking to CNBC. Covel highlights some of the past issues Harding has seen in talking to CNBC and plays the clip. Covel discusses the history of trend following and some of the core big-picture ideas employed by traders like David Harding, Larry Hite, Ed Seykota, Bill Dunn, and others. Covel moves into a Twitter discussion he had recently where he posted a Bloomberg article featuring the most misinformed description of trend following he’d seen yet. When the author responded on Twitter, sparks flew. Covel talks about the lessons learned by the exchange: it’s a great opportunity to clarify what trend following trading is, the question of where one makes their money from, and academic chops. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 266.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Leo Melamed on today’s podcast. Melamed is a pioneer of financial futures, currencies, and stock indexes. Melamed became Chairman of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1969. In 1972, under his leadership, the CME created the International Monetary Market (IMM), the world's first financial futures exchange, and launched currency futures. He is currently Chairman Emeritus of CME Group (formerly the Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Melamed is also the author of Escape To The Futures. Covel and Melamed discuss overcoming odds; China’s futures markets; the middle class in China; Melamed’s experience meeting Milton Friedman and some of the lessons learned; Melamed’s early experiences escaping Nazi-controlled Poland, and eventually going to work for Merrill Lynch; stock futures; and the importance of speculation. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 265.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with John H. Cochrane on today’s podcast. Cochrane is the AQR Capital Management Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Covel and Cochrane cover wide territory today. Covel and Cochrane discuss Warren Buffett’s quote that he “would have made a fortune” if the banks weren’t bailed out; crony capitalism; why “a good Bear failure may have saved us from a bad Lehman failure”; the cost of regulation; Uber, taxi service, and regulation; why commodities keep getting cheaper and cheaper, but people with expertise keep getting more and more expensive; the idea of discretion; and healthcare. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 264.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Meir Statman on today’s podcast. Statman is a professor of finance at Santa Clara University and a behavioral finance expert. His acclaimed book is titled "What Investors Really Want." Covel and Statman discuss how we make decisions, and how these decisions are reflected in markets; what investors want besides the utilitarian aspect of money; philanthropy and status; why Madoff’s clients’ own greed helped them fall into a trap; envy and happiness; the fear of losing and the fear of missing out; mental accounting; Statman’s drivers and early influences; libertarianism vs. paternalism; Social Security and mandatory retirement savings. For more information on Meir Statman, visit http://www.scu.edu/business/finance/faculty/statman.cfm. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 263.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Terry Burnham on today’s podcast. Burnham is an economist who studies the biological and evolutionary basis of human behavior. He wrote "Mean Markets and Lizard Brains". Covel and Burnham discuss why Burnham removed $1 million from his Bank of America account and said “I don’t trust the banks”; the two ways to think about risk; separating the ideas of luck and skill; the lizard brain and how it relates back to our choices; a story about interacting with Paul Tudor Jones; why markets have momentum; the great driver of conformity; rationality and irrationality; captive chimps vs. chimps in the wild and the differences in behavior; predicting when the Fed will step in; thinking of the worst case scenario for equities and looking to Japan for an example; and negative interest rates. For more information on Terry Burnham, go to terryburnham.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 262.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Andy Puddicombe on today’s podcast. Puddicombe is the founder of Headspace, an award-winning digital health platform that provides guided meditation sessions. Puddicombe is a former Buddhist monk with a degree in Circus Arts. Covel and Puddicombe discuss Puddicombe’s background and how he came into the position he is in today; some traumatic events which may have had an influence on Puddicombe’s decision to become a monk; Covel’s own meditation experience; comparing mindfulness and meditation; the importance of a daily practice; stress and the science behind meditation; neuroplasticity; the wandering mind and unhappiness; the idea of the present moment, and how traders that embrace the present moment have an advantage; and intuition. For more information on Andy Puddicombe, go to headspace.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 261.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Sally Hogshead. She’s an American speaker, author, former advertising executive, as well as the Chief Executive Officer of Fascinate, Inc. Hogshead’s newest book is "How The World Sees You: Discover Your Highest Value Through The Science of Fascination". Covel and Hogshead discuss fascination and paying attention; the seven different categories of things that fascinate us; what those who fascinate have in common; developing a personality assessment that shows how the world sees you; understanding your own personal branding; analyzing Michael Covel’s own fascination survey; not being a commodity; why if you’re not generating a negative reaction from someone, you’re probably not fascinating anyone; why you don’t want to be vanilla ice cream. To take the Fascination Advantage test for free, go to howtheworldseesyou.com/you and enter the code “trendfollowing”. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 260.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Bucky Isaacson on today’s podcast. Isaacson is one of the early pioneers of managed futures. In 1969, he helped to develop one of the first computerized trading systems. He’s been involved in the managed futures industry ever since, particularly in Asia and the US. Covel and Isaacson talk about the fractured state of conferences these days; what it was like to be involved with a group developing a computerized trading system in 1969; being with one of the earliest incarnations of a managed futures firm; trading attitudes; marketing and doing business in Asia; differences in business practices between Asian countries; Refco, MF Global, PFG and other aberrations that have damaged the Chicago futures brand; Madoff as a marketer; raising the initial capital to start a trading venture; how to differentiate yourself from a marketing perspective; and growth in the managed futures industry. For more information on Bucky Isaacson, visit CTAExpo.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 259.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:31am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Megan McArdle on today’s podcast. McArdle is a Bloomberg View columnist who writes on economics, business and public policy. She is the author of "The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success”. She founded the blog "Asymmetrical Information”. Covel and McArdle discuss “trophy kids” and taking the monkey bars away; the idea of a regulator out there trying to guarantee our safety; why the companies that make it aren’t the ones with the best strategic plan--it’s the ones that execute (and fail well); the power of experimentation; Nobel winner Vernon Smith and experimentation; the idea of learning in crisis; how sunk costs are difficult for a large part of the population to grasp; Van Halen, errors, and M&M’s; normative error; small, manageable risks; forager morality vs. farmer morality; and a story about Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC). Megan McArdle can be found on Twitter at @asymmetricinfo. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 258.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:14pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Cullen Roche. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, a financial services company based out of San Diego. He also runs a very well-known blog called Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com). His new book, Pragmatic Capitalism, was just released. Roche takes apart the soundbites of the media and gets at how things really work. Covel and Roche talk about entrepreneurism; investing in yourself; the advantages of starting a blog; why the word “pragmatic” is a word that has become central to Roche’s universe; eliminating your biases; why the US going bankrupt is a myth; the myth that central banks exist to enrich bankers; Dr. Laurie Santos and her work with monkeys; bringing risk down to something we can measure; Warren Buffett; and hedging your bets. For more information on Cullen Roche, visit pragcap.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 257.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:34pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Mike Harris. Harris is President of Campbell & Company (3B AUM), the systematic trading firm started by Keith Campbell (Campbell was featured in Covel’s first book Trend Following). Covel and Harris discuss systematic trading in the early 70’s; education about managed futures; correlation with other markets and managers; trading diverse markets; focusing on data rather than the fundamentals; why “commodities” and “CTA” are misnomers; why Harris wouldn’t fly down to Brazil to investigate fundamental information on the coffee market; risk management, drawdowns, and taking small losses; dealing with uncertainty and helping clients to understand the uncertain nature of trading; how human emotion often gets in the way of profitable trading; the efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance; continuity and how that has been thought through at Campbell & Company; the Sharpe ratio and why it isn’t the best way to look at systematic traders; and why being defensive is central to being a great absolute return trader. For more information on Campbell & Company, visit campbell.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 256.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:13pm EDT

Today on the show, Michael Covel speaks with Tyler Cowen. Cowen is an American economist, academic, and writer. He’s the co-author of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution. Covel and Cowen discuss Sabermetrics and the new idea that we will be judged by numbers; Cowen’s early experience studying under Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling; the notion of thinking in terms of paradoxes; why we’re moving from the 1% to the 15%; “average is over” and why Singapore and Israel are the two places in the world where this has come true first; problems because of “average is over” in Singapore; pure free markets; thinking about why past regulations have failed; how computers change us; globalization, where things are headed, and what we should be prepared for; zero marginal product workers. For more information on Tyler Cowen, go to marginalrevolution.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 255.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:26pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with William Poundstone. Poundstone is the author of Fortune’s Formula, a book about the Kelly criterion. This is risk management at its heart. All great trend traders have had to deal with Kelly. Covel and Poundstone discuss Claude Shannon; the connection between Al Capone, the Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry; Bell Labs and information theory; why, when betting, if there’s a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything; criticisms of the Kelly criterion; Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting; Long-Term Capital Management; Martingale vs. Kelly; and early development of the Black-Scholes formula. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 254.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:13am EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Perry Kaufman. Kaufman is an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs. Covel and Kaufman discuss how Kaufman came to the idea of 100% algorithmic trading systems; the difference between being systematic and being automated; optimization vs. validation; the biggest advantages of testing; why discretion is not part of Kaufman’s toolbox; the problem of tail events; why discipline is the most important characteristic of a systematic trader; the “loose pants fit everyone” philosophy; preparing yourself for uncertainty; comparisons between risk management and risk measurement; the Sharpe ratio; high volatility trades vs. low volatility; why Kaufman places equal weight on both risk management and the underlying system; and systematic trading in established mature markets vs. emerging markets. For more information on Perry Kaufman, visit Amphi Capital. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 253.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:07am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Ben Hunt on today’s podcast. Hunt is the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners. Salient is a 19B AUM manager based in Houston, Texas. As Chief Risk Officer, Hunt writes the Epsilon Theory, viewing capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Covel and Hunt discuss the power of the crowd watching the crowd; game theory; having a profound agnosticism about what the future holds; the difference between risk and uncertainty in the context of game theory; the Panopticon and the chilling effect of being watched; the “common knowledge game” and the missionary; the island of the green-eyed tribe. For more information on Ben Hunt, visit epsilontheory.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 252.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:58am EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Andrew Huszar. Huszar is a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School and also a former Morgan Stanley managing director. In 2009, he managed the Federal Reserve’s 1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed security purchase program. Covel and Huszar talk about looking at the short term; black swans; Huszar’s history and how he came to work for the Federal Reserve; the changing of the banking model in the US from the 1980’s to the late 2000’s; quantitative easing; why Huszar ultimately left the Fed at the beginning of 2011; how the Fed has become over five times bigger in recent history; the current source of Wall Street money; the idea of an overly financialized US economy; and the need for long-term structural changes in the US. You can follow Andrew Huszar on Twitter at @AndrewHuszar. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 251.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:04am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann on today’s two-part podcast. Hersh Shefrin has done pioneering work in behavioral finance and is the author of Beyond Greed and Fear. Hoffmann is a colleague of Shefrin. He is a Professor of Finance at Maastricht University in the Netherlands. Shefrin and Hoffmann’s paper, Technical Analysis and Individual Investors, came out February 2014. The paper is concerned with short-term technical analysis and retail traders. Covel and Shefrin discuss how Shefrin came to know that behavioral finance was his path; the two-system framework; the connection to behavioral and eating disorders; the disposition effect; when emotion and reason are in conflict; “transferring your assets” vs. “selling a loss”; distinguishing between rules and discretion; how we stick with rules for ourselves given the context of our humanity; the psychological pitfalls of the 2008 financial crisis; the inevitability of market crises; Minsky and Keynes; the psychology of Keynesian economics; and human ideas surrounding uncertainty. With Arvid Hoffmann, Covel discusses the paper Technical Analysis and Individual Investors; the inspiration for the paper; Hoffmann’s definition of technical analysis; the narrow focus of the paper to short-term trading; technical analysis and trend following; “invest as if the market was efficient”, and “restrict your attempts to beat the market”. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 250.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:33pm EDT

Michael Covel opens up by discussing a 2011 David Harding appearance on CNBC in his book Trend Commandments. The other day, now in 2014, Harding appeared on CNBC again with Joe Kernen. Covel goes over the clip, discussing CNBC’s policy of prediction and picks, their ignorance of Harding’s style and outlook, and the talking heads in general. Covel then went onto Twitter and posted, eliciting a response from Joe Kernen. Covel analyzes their Twitter exchanges, noting there are plenty of questions beyond what Kernen asked. Why does Harding enter? Why does he exit? How much does he bet each trade? Behavioral finance? Black swans? Trading only price action? It’s always fun to put a lance into the boil of the system and watch it pop, as Covel shows here. Covel surmises that either Kernen was not prepared, or there’s an agenda--it’s an acting job. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win. SPECIAL NOTE: I welcome all of my listeners to join this debate on Twitter. My Twitter is @Covel and Joe Kernen is @JoeSquawk. Check out our conversation and please add smart feedback. However, please keep the conversation above board.

Direct download: 249.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:33pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Miller. Miller is a computer scientist at Google. He has done early work in hypertext, and today is heavily involved in digital rights. His conversation with Michael Covel is wide-ranging, and especially interesting as they look to the future--perhaps even a future after Singularity. Covel and Miller discuss property rights; Hernando de Soto; Bitcoin and digital trust; “smart contracts”; why a contract is like a board game; game theory; 3rd World infrastructure; how program code can become a contract; a closer look at “possession is nine-tenths of the law”; whether the Turing Test was just passed; defining the term “singularity”, and the multiple singularities of the past; A.I. and nanotechnology; how Miller’s work relates to markets; the history of hypertext. For more information on Mark Miller, visit erights.org. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 248.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:10pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Van Tharp on his second visit to the show. Van Tharp runs the Van Tharp Institute and is the author of four acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill: Super Trader, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading. His new book is called Trading Beyond the Matrix. He was also featured in Jack Schwager's Market Wizard's: Interviews with Great Traders. Van Tharp received his Ph.D. in psychology, is a certified Master Practitioner of Neuro Linguistic Programming (NLP), a Certified Master Time Line Therapist, a certified Modeler of NLP, and an Assistant Trainer of NLP. He has used his expertise in NLP to create the successful models of trading and investing upon which so much of his work is based. Covel and Van Tharp discuss beliefs in the context of trading and investing; the moment of now, and the Navajo’s belief of a never-ending present; the belief examination paradigm; “big money” and what it means to Van Tharp; the idea of “trader jail”; fear of the unknown; the importance of sleep; and the difference between spirituality and religion. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 247.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:37pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with David Ryan on today’s podcast. Ryan was famously first featured in Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizards” book. He is a protege of William O’Neil. Covel and Ryan discuss how Ryan got his start walking up to the front door of O’Neil’s offices; how Ryan would describe his approach to trading today; CAN SLIM trading, and buying the breakout vs. buying the dip; enjoying trading without clients; some good CAN SLIM winners in the past two to three years from Ryan’s perspective; big picture-wise, the max loss that Ryan is willing to take on a position; the type of winning percentages that Ryan really sees; the uneasiness about the overall market system since the 2008 financial crisis and how Ryan looks at how the situation has unfolded; high frequency trading; how the market can be humbling; and getting your ego out of the market. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 246.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:24pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Jerry Parker on his third visit to the podcast. Parker is an original Turtle, trained by Richard Dennis. However, since then he has very successfully run a managed money firm called Chesapeake Capital. Covel and Parker discuss mean reversion trading; what the definition of momentum trading is compared to trend following; why “good enough” is more rigorous than any metric; how the intervention of the Fed has broken up trends and made volatility drop in markets; how the idea of uncertainty and talking in probabilities makes people uncomfortable; the difference between managed futures and trend following; why buy and hold is predicated on trust of the Fed; and why trend followers don’t look to “beat” the market. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 245.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:01pm EDT

Today on the show, Michael Covel talks with Dr. Walter Williams. He’s an American economist, commentator, and academic. He is the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University, as well as a syndicated columnist and author known for his libertarian views. Covel and Williams discuss why Williams calls himself a radical; the morality of markets; the welfare state and bailouts; how Williams didn’t "think poor" growing up; the nefarious aspect of minimum wage; how Williams stayed positive and avoided bitterness despite opposition; Malcolm X. and Martin Luther King, Jr.; why there’s no poverty in the United States; how Williams felt about the Fall of 2008 and the bailouts that took place; how we got to the point where people want to trust the state so much; and how Williams has developed a thick skin to deal with the criticism of his radical nature. For more information on Walter Williams, go to walterewilliams.com. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 244.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:16am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics. Mauldin is a noted financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, a pioneering online commentator, and the publisher of one of the most widely read investment newsletters in the world. Mauldin and Covel discuss credit card rates and zero interest rate policy; the improper use of credit; debt spirals; central bank policies that keep whipsaw periods going; the actions in Japan and how they can spread across the world; the justifications that Mauldin sees behind the scenes; black swans and boom-bust periods; how the 2008 financial crisis wasn’t a true black swan event; the “why” behind zero interest rate policy; and the specter of Keynesianism over the world. For more information on John Mauldin, go to mauldineconomics.com. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 243.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:14am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Dr. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud. Bouchaud is Chairman of the multi-strategy quantitative hedge fund Capital Fund Management (5B+ AUM) and co-supervisor of the research team. He is a well known authority in the field of Econphysics, co-author of "Theory of Financial Risks and Derivative Pricing", a Professor of École Polytechnique where he teaches Complex Systems and has his Ph.D in theoretical physics from École Normale Supérieure. Covel and Bouchaud discuss Bouchaud's physics background and how it collided with the world of classical economics; the Black-Scholes model, and it’s still use; experimenting with simulation; Bouchaud and his colleague's paper, "Two Centuries of Trend Following"; the efficient market hypothesis; why the existence of trends is one of the most statistically significant anomalies in financial markets; how trends predate trend following; why classical economics has no framework through which to understand "wild markets"; benign randomness vs. wild randomness; accepting uncertainty; and differences between physicists and economists. For more information on Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, visit www.cfm.fr. Complimentary trend following DVD from Michael Covel: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 242.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:59pm EDT

Have you noticed with equity markets at all time highs there are starting to be justifications again? It reminds Michael Covel of... The “this time is different” routine. Covel moves on to talk about Timothy Geithner’s new book, and how Warren Buffett approached him after bailouts. Covel talks about crony capitalism on both sides of the aisle. Rigged markets at all-time highs are not fun. It may feel great at the time, but there’s a hangover. Covel shifts gears and talks about classical economics. It’s all about assumptions that become axioms. Covel discusses the Black-Scholes option pricing formula, and how the edges are indeed important. Covel can’t predict or tell you when or how, but he can tell you that if you’re in a position with a system to take advantage of price movements, you can benefit on the upside, the downside, and the black swan side. Next, Covel gives an example of someone who was mugged outside of a bar and became a mathematical savant after brain injury. Given these gifts, will he work for Wall Street? There are too many variables to make a prediction, he says. Next, Covel moves onto a TED talk. He’s thought they’ve always been enjoyable--until now. It turns out the TED operation operates like a cult, as evidenced by a clip from the Joe Rogan podcast. Covel wraps it all back to classical economics--it’s a cult, too. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 241.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:28pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Nir Eyal. Eyal is an educator, author, and entrepreneur who is all about connecting psychology, technology, and business. His new book is titled “Hooked: How To Build Habit Forming Products”. Covel and Eyal discuss how behavior and habits can be engineered, and how technology changes our behavior; the moral implications of habit forming activities; the difference between habits and addictions; breaking “the hook”; the four areas that “the hook” goes through: trigger, action, variable reward, and investment; the IKEA example and how value can be built; Eyal’s mentors and influences; the importance of social feedback from your community; the WhatsApp deal, and how to deal with your “insane jealousy” of the messaging app deal; getting equal pay for equal work, and how that might be embedded in our DNA; and the importance of interface changes when it comes to revolutionary changes in technology. For more information on Nir Eyal, go to nirandfar.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 240.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:04pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Brett Steenbarger. Steenbarger is Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY. Steenbarger and Covel discuss what a “flow state” is, and why it’s important; how Steenbarger has seen flow connect to the trading world, and the importance of matching your level of difficulty and challenge; risk and risk tolerance; the logical and psychological sides to risk; “what have you done for me lately” attitude for investors; why we don’t grow if we stay within our comfort zones; process vs. outcome; the psychological burden of certain fee structures; some of the common characteristics of successful traders; slow thinking, deep thinking, and fast thinking; where we’re headed regarding prescription drugs related to the mind; trend trading vs. mean reversion; contextualism; trend following vs. momentum trading; and how people actually behave vs. how they describe their behavior. For more information on Brett Steenbarger, go to traderfeed.blogspot.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 239.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:07pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman today on the podcast. Hite is a hedge fund manager and is one of the forefathers of system trading. He was famously featured in the Market Wizards book. A few years ago he started ISAM with Stanley Fink. Greyserman has 25 years of experience in the CTA industry, and was originally hired by Larry Hite at Mint. Greyserman is Chief Scientist at ISAM (PhD in Statistics). He is also a professor at Columbia University. Covel, Hite, and Greyserman discuss Singapore, and Covel’s recent excursions in Asia; how the game has stayed the same despite zero interest rate policy; what people are missing when they say “trend following is dead”; how you’ll never get perfection; their 800 year study, the premise, and what was found out; measuring human nature; the difference between divergent and convergent strategies; risk management; having “perfect” knowledge; using long trends and getting whipsawed in shorter trends; the asset class of trend following compared to the NASDAQ buy and hold, etc.; what’s changed about human nature through all the booms and busts; insurance, hedging your risk, and the risk transference process; asymmetrical leverage; adjusting to new environments; how those that survive are the most adaptable to the environment; and how trend following automatically adjusts to what’s happening. More: www.isam.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 238.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:06pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Sharon Moalem, a physician and author. Moalem’s previous book, “Survival Of The Sickest”, was a New York Times bestseller. His newest book is called “Inheritance”. Covel and Moalem discuss Rafael Nadal as an example of digging deep in genetics; how our bodies are constantly in a state of deconstruction and reconstruction; how DNA is under constant modification; genetic personalized medicine; "Jeff the chef" and an example of specific dietary needs; dysmorphology and analyzing the hands, feet, and face of an individual; Gregor Mendel and his pea experiments in genetics; how your behavior can dictate your genetic destiny; the future of personalized genetic medicine; critics and misunderstandings of genetics; and vitamins on an individual basis. Science in life, science in trading, both excite me. Moalem pulls back the curtain on where healthcare is headed. Will it get there in our lifetimes? Wait and see is all we can do. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 237.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:39pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Robin Hanson, a professor of economics at George Mason University. Covel and Hanson discuss the definition of prediction markets; how prediction markets are used politically; comparing the prediction markets to the financial markets; Vernon Smith and coming up with the “why” for booms and busts; dealing with a complex world based on our limited abilities; steering towards humanity’s future; Hanson’s physics background, and how he came to where prediction markets became a passion; how prediction markets can make us pay more attention to the truth; Hayek and Mises, and some of their thinking early on; what taboos and idealogical beliefs might stop one from making optimal decisions; if people have employed particular trading strategies to the prediction markets; stop losses as information and as risk preference; setting up a market to bet on geopolitical events in the Middle East, and the controversy based around that; why DC politicians often cannot handle the research Hanson does; and why Hanson has elected to have his head cryonically preserved after medical death based on a cost-benefit analysis. For more information on Robin Hanson go to overcomingbias.com or hanson.gmu.edu. This is a podcast that at first might not appear useful to the trend following community, but it most certainly adds great value. Want a free trend following video: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 236.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:01am EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel talks with Harry Markowitz, the founder of modern finance and Nobel Prize winner. Markowitz also appeared in Covel’s documentary film a few years back, “Broke: The New American Dream”. Covel and Markowitz talk about Justin Fox and “The Myth Of The Rational Market”; Markowitz’s beginnings, and the Nobel Prize; Markowitz’s 1952 paper; how Markowitz felt about some of his prescriptions and ideas being interpreted into dogma; why Wall Street was not interested in Markowitz’s theories at one time; diversification for the right reason; Markowitz’s new four-volume book; advice on maintaining mental acuity at an advanced age and sounding like you’re 35 when you’re 86 years young; Markowitz’s attraction to the philosopher Hume; if it was fifty years later, if Markowitz would be a quant running a hedge fund today; Markowitz’s legacy; on being comfortable vs. being rich; the leveraged long-only hedge fund industry and being coaxed into putting your money into these institutions; Long Term Capital Management and portfolio theory. What a life! Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 235.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:29pm EDT

Michael Covel talks to Ryan Holiday, director of marketing for American Apparel; media strategist for Tucker Max, Dov Charney, and others; and author of the new book “The Obstacle Is The Way”. This is Holiday’s third appearance on the podcast. Covel and Holiday discuss Marcus Aurelius’ philosophy and stoicism, and why it has such a hold on Holiday; distraction; why the impediment to action actually advances action; the unpredictability of the world, and how we react to the world; George Clooney, and his start as an actor related to the obstacles we all face; Steve Jobs’ reality distortion field; what drives Holiday today; how will is the ultimate trump card; the two definitions of will; Alabama Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban and his approach to the moment of now; feeling great about the fight, the adversity, and the challenge; how the process is intrinsically valuable. For more information on Ryan Holiday, go to ryanholiday.net. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 234.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:12am EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel interviews Larry Doyle. Doyle’s book is called “In Bed With Wall Street”. Doyle is a former JP Morgan banker gets into why the system is fragile despite being five or six years removed from the crisis. Covel and Doyle discuss Doyle’s background and why he put “In Bed With Wall Street” together; Madoff, and what was missed from a regulatory perspective; KYC, or “knowing your customer”; MF Global, Jon Corzine, and touching customer funds; Dodd Frank and the supposed fixes to the 2008 financial crisis, and why Dodd Frank was more of an architectual blueprint rather than a completed piece of legislation; regulatory reforms to help fix the problems created in the 2008 financial crisis; informing the general public of the problems surrounding Wall Street today; the “bribe” of equity markets at all-time highs; manipulation of the markets; why Tim Geithner said “we saved the economy, but we lost the country”; if a crash is the only thing that will bring about change; why the banks must be broken up; and what would have happened if Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had failed. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 233.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:35pm EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel talks with Tucker Max. Max is a bestselling author and entrepreneur who has sold over 3 million books. Covel and Max talk about their first meeting, and Max’s brutally honest advice to Covel; diet and nutrition; the NCAA, college athletics, exploitation, the media, and having to 'beat' the system; marginal cost and marginal product; entrepreneurial thinking and Max's early career; Max’s experience in marketing; protecting your independence; Christopher Hitchens; facing rejection in publishing, and how rejection is part of success; how success only teaches you to repeat what you did before, and failure forces you to think; what drives Max today; how the landscape has changed in regards to authors; the fight for authority and trust in the publishing world; what motivates Tucker Max today--the quality of relationships you have with other people, and what you do that matters to others. More information on Tucker Max can be found on tuckermax.me. Free Covel trend following video go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 232.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:40am EDT

Michael Covel discusses a white paper titled "Two Centuries of Trend Following". Covel likes the fact that when he goes through their references, it's all other academic white papers. Then, sandwiched in between the other white papers, "The Complete TurtleTrader" is referenced. Covel posted this on Twitter and received a response in which someone wanted to talk about the last couple of years of trend following performance. Trend following performance is going to differ depending on the trader, what’s in their portfolio, the type of system they’re trading, and the risk they’re taking. There isn't some one magical elixir. Covel believes that you’re better off in the long-term trend following world, rather than in the short-term world. Still, the person Covel interacted with on Twitter was not concerned with the two centuries of trend following that the white paper talked about, but rather, "what have you done for me lately?" Covel moves on to talk about a recent monologue he did concerning a Yahoo Finance article in which he questioned the vocabulary of the talking heads. Covel looks at the responses to that episode, and then the larger view: Most people don’t have the foggiest clue what trading is; what Wall Street is. They’ve been listening to nonsense in the media. The lure is still out there. The buy and hold lure is still out there. But even worse is that "get rich quick" attitude. People don’t understand it as a science. Covel looks at at "The Wolf of Wall Street" and analyzes a segment from the movie. Covel uses it as an example of how most people view money-making and Wall Street. People don’t think like Covel’s podcast guests and writing subjects; they don’t think like Marty Bergin at Dunn Capital or Ed Seykota. This is what Covel is up against. He wants people to understand the science of trading. Covel also notes that his old newsletter system is being changed. If you want to continue to receive Covel’s newsletter, go to trendfollowing.com/subscribe-now. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 231.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:22am EDT

Today on the show Michael Covel speaks with Mark Minervini. Minervini is the author of 'Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market' and was featured in Jack Schwager’s 'Stock Market Wizards'. Minervini and Covel discuss the importance of influences outside of the finance world; Minervini’s atypical background in music and how he got to where he is today; capturing 'super performance' and the trend; the importance of cutting your losers short; how Minervini spends his day; Richard Love and 'super performance' stocks; why Minervini is not a fan of diversification beyond the minimum amount that you can get away with; Richard Donchian, Jesse Livermore and their influence on Minervini; timeless strategies; Paul Tudor Jones and 'losers average losers'; the importance of not just trading what you know; 'new high ground' and not being afraid of buying higher highs; risk management and bet sizing; the biggest areas where new traders often start off on the wrong foot; Howard Lederer and poker players as an analogy to traders; why you shouldn’t even turn on the television as a stock trader. For more information on Mark Minervini, go to minervini.com. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 230.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:52pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Bill Adams in his second visit to the podcast. Adams is a private trader and systems developer. He is based in Zurich and works with institutional clients. Adams and Covel discuss if Adams views himself as a trend following trader; why the word futures can be problematic; broad diversification and diversifying on a number of different tiers; risk-based diversification; why making sure you're in the game is the most important factor; why every business is seasonal; why price is the most important aspect to a trade; how Adams has (or doesn't have) the "expertise" to trade certain markets; informing your system of various events as a quantitative or systematic trader; thinking about Adams' strategy in the context of evolution; core baskets vs. satellite baskets; the adaptive aspect of what Adams does; the philosophical and operational aspects of volatility; average true range as a volatility measure; trading to make a return vs. trading as an economist; Adams' greatest areas of challenge and frustration; Michael Lewis and whether the markets are "rigged"; and execution strategy. Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win

Direct download: 229.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:14am EDT

Michael Covel cuts up a Yahoo Finance segment called "Are Social Media Stocks In A Bear Market?" with Michael Santoli and Jeff Macke. Covel dissects the terminology and words used by the media, and the position of the talking heads on this Yahoo Finance article. First, inspired by Larry Tentarelli, Covel discusses the idea of researching stocks. There is advice that says you should be doing one hour of fundamental research per week on every stock you own. If you own 50 stocks, that's 50 hours a week. Covel thinks this advice is asinine, and points out that the best traders don't do that. If the best traders in the world don't do that, why should you? It doesn't matter what the research tells you; if you don't have a stop loss, you're going to lose your money. Period. Covel then moves on to the Jeff Macke/Michael Santoli segment and dissects it each step of the way. Covel breaks down the terminology, including "crowded longs", "chatter from brokerage firms", and "hedge fund favorites". Covel also discusses how we don't know the why behind bubbles, inspired by his Justin Fox interview from a few days ago. Covel also discusses why you don't need to know what a good price is on the way down; defining "smart money", "aggressively buying", and "leadership" in a trading system; and whether or not the market is "anxious". Covel ends with something inspired by James Altucher's article, "Ten Reasons You Have To Quit Your Job In 2014". Want a free trend following video? Go to trendfollowing.com/win. 

Direct download: 228.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:07pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Justin Fox. Fox is the executive editor at the Harvard Business Review Group. He writes a blog for hbr.org (http://blogs.hbr.org/fox/) and a monthly column for Time magazine. Fox is also the author of "The Myth Of The Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street". Covel and Fox discuss Harry Markowitz, Bayesian statistics, and making smart decisions in an uncertain world using quantitative tools; stocks, beta, and the importance of making useful predictions; Commodities Corporation and trend following trading in the early 1970’s; why a market in which everyone was rationally anticipating the future would be a random market; Amos Hostetter; how the behavioral mindset started to unfold in the 1970’s; Eugene Fama and the efficient market hypothesis; the Capital Asset Pricing Model; why well-designed markets and well-informed investors are prone to manias and panics; and individuals making errors vs. the group getting it right. Justin Fox can be found on Twitter at @foxjust or on the web at byjustinfox.com.

Direct download: 227.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:39pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Larry Tentarelli. Tentarelli is a self-made trend following trader and he returns for his third visit to the podcast. Covel and Tentarelli discuss Michael Lewis, high frequency trading, and if the market is “rigged”; trend following track records; day trading; why you can’t get rich overnight in the markets, but you can go broke; why price is the reality, and everything else is just a fantasy; the efficiency of only looking at price; Warren Buffett and the secret to his success; why trend following is straightforward and simple compared to day trading and fundamentals; why having a high winning percentage is not the prime focus in trend following; Soros, his positions, and why he might be a trend following trader; reactive vs. predictive technical analysis; the similarities between predictive technical analysis and fundamental analysis; why psychology is integral to trend following’s success; Van Tharp and why winning is based on 60% trader psychology, 30% money management, and 10% the parameters of what you’re trading; divorcing the price on the chart from your geopolitical thinking; “trader’s highs” and emotional issues that are played out in the market; the difference between being “right” and making money; why people say that trend following doesn’t work on equities, and why that is 100% false; getting preoccupied with the instrument rather than what markets really consist of; and quality of life in trend following vs. other trading styles. Larry Tentarelli can be found on Twitter at @SystemsTrader95. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 226.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:59pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Thomas Gilovich. Gilovich is a professor of psychology at Cornell. He is an expert on behavioral economics and decision making. Covel and Gilovich discuss how his world dovetailed into money and markets; basketball, streak shooting, and the “hot hand”; randomness and the clustering illusion; the missing Malaysian Airlines flight and probability; the reluctance to accept a probabilistic view of the world; politics, predictions, and probabilities; people who see the world in black and white; drawing conclusions from incomplete and unrepresentative evidence, and how to avoid that folly; the position of the devil’s advocate, and the importance of that role; Gilovich’s response to the media’s talking heads, and their often black and white opinions; behavioral economics vs. traditional economics; when people do the wrong thing because the public demands it; Bill James and the closer; instinct vs. considered judgment and test taking; irrationality in financial markets and bubbles; loss aversion; and why you don’t need to be better than the market. More information on Thomas Gilovich can be found at psych.cornell.edu/people/thomas-gilovich‎. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 225.mp3