Trend Following with Michael Covel (general)
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.

Mark Blyth is a political scientist from Scotland and a professor of international political economy at Brown University.

What influenced Mark early on? John Maynard Keynes was his foundation. He also was growing up through the permanent recessions of the 1980’s and learning first hand about pitfalls in the economy. He quickly saw how the macro economy was so much different than the micro and how studying the economy as a whole was more important than just looking at the individual.

Mark called the Donald Trump win for Presidency in June of 2016. Why? Trump was willing to acknowledge there was a problem. He was dramatically different and played to the individual rather than big business. In 2015 Wall Street bonuses were twice the amount of the total wages of people earning minimum wage. Since that 2015 statistic, the inequality has only gotten greater. Trump gave people hope that things can change – that he could change them.

What are some macro steps that can get the U.S. economy heading in the right direction today? Dissolve monopolies and raise corporate taxes creating long-term productivity gains. Because of tax ride-offs a monopolized economy has been created. The government has allowed and engineered large businesses to run America and it’s time to re-arrange the model. Another problem? Americans have become dependent on passive investing and don’t know what to do when volatility happens. They have become blind to risk, due to lack of volatility for the last 10 years. Michael and Mark end on the question: “Can the economy sustain the next 10 years like this?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trump campaign
Raising interest rates
Tax cuts
Infrastructure
General data protection regulation
Black swans
Passive investing
Efficient market hypothesis

Direct download: 677.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Markets and Profit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 676.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Jerry Muller is a professor of history at The Catholic University of America, where he has taught since 1984. His latest book is “The Tyranny of Metrics.” Quantifying metrics can be a good thing, however, it can easily go too far and have great consequences.

Jerry sees pitfalls of focusing too much on metrics everywhere – schools, hospitals, even venture capital. Children gear their learning toward beating a test rather than intellectually developing their mind. Doctors fixate on standardized performance measures, rewards and punishment, and publicized accountability. The system encourages and sometimes requires doctors to game the system. Venture capitalism, the very field where creativity should prosper, tends to foster an anti-creative atmosphere. Investors want to see data to back up a new product so they can see proof of a future profit. The problem? New innovations don’t have data because they have never been seen before in the marketplace.

Using metrics in schools, hospitals, and business can be extremely useful depending on what context it is used, but alone they are not enough. Human development as well as human experience should be weaved into the equation. Michael and Jerry finish the podcast up talking metrics in China, how it has lead to gaming the system and taken a toll on developing research.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Intrinsic motivation
Tyranny of metrics
Metric fixation
Metrics in law enforcement
Metrics in health industry
Managerial ideology
Powerpoint presentations
Metrics in China

Direct download: 675.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael plays three epic interviews with Ed Seykota, Martin Lueck and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud profiled in chapter’s 12, 13 and 14 of his newest edition of Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets.

Ed Seykota was originally profiled in the classic book “The Market Wizards.” Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years.

Martin Lueck holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University and currently is the Research Director and President of Aspect Capital. Lueck was originally with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded with Michael Adam and David Harding.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Govopoly
Systems trading
Diversification
Behavioral economics
Death of trend following
Exploiting vs. exploring
Behavioral biases
Risk

Direct download: 674.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Christopher Ryan is best known for co-authoring “Sex at Dawn.” The book deals with the evolution of monogamy in humans and human mating systems. In opposition to what the authors see as the “standard narrative” of human sexual evolution, they contend that having multiple sexual partners was common and accepted in the environment of evolutionary adaptedness.

What was the start of Christopher going doing his path? One of the more pivotal moments was when he was an undergraduate in college. He was able to skip his junior year of college and subsequently hitchhiked to Alaska. Before that journey to Alaska, he thought the world was a dangerous place. Once he got outside his bubble and met strangers, he learned how kind and generous people were. It shifted the way he thought about life and the world.

After graduating he spent his 20’s and 30’s backpacking through Asia and South America. His a-ha moment was realizing that most of what he was told about the world was bullshit. Governments have an agenda and prop up their society to make other places seem less superior. Christopher quickly saw that the cultural message telling us that it’s a “dog eat dog world” was not true.

There are different attributes that everyone shares. What is universal? What do we all share? Consciousness, sexuality, comedy, etc. these are all things that translate across cultures and continents. Learning about these things is what excites Christopher and why he continues to learn, study and teach.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Monogamy
Hunter and gatherer society
Agricultural revolution
Culture of women sexuality
Sexual transmitted disease
War on masturbation
Social groups

Direct download: 673.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Michael shares the Preface and Chapter One of his book, “The Complete TurtleTrader.” “The Complete TurtleTrader” is a classic nature vs. nurture story starring famed traders Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt. Are people born with the innate ability to trade? Or can it be taught? Dennis believed that anyone could be taught to trade successful with the right set of rules, Eckhardt disagreed – and from there this epic experiment was born. These men took 23 novice traders, gave them millions and taught them how to be successful on Wall Street.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Nature vs. Nurture
Efficient markets
Beating the market
Systems trading
Behavioral finance

Direct download: 672.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Bryan Caplan is an economist and professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and blogger for EconLog. Bryan has written several books–his newest being “The Case against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money.” His main goal for the book is for people to forget education propaganda, look at what is right in front of them and examine what they have learned first hand.

From a young age Bryan always wondered, “Why do I need to learn this stuff? I am never going to use it.” The further he got along in school the more passionate he became about that belief. Yet it wasn’t until he started studying economics that he found there were other like-minded people who thought how he was thinking.

What is the problem with everyone getting a college degree? To stand out you now need to get another degree. Credential inflation has only gone up. People are spending too many years studying subjects that do not interest them, just to graduate and never use that information again. They get multiple degrees to do a job that would have only taken a high school diploma 30 years ago. It has been ingrained in so many that the education system enriches lives. However, the wall between formal education and practical education is ever growing. Bryan doesn’t hate education, he just believes people need to be more realistic about their interests and learning capabilities.

Michael and Bryan finish up discussing Bryan’s new books coming out about poverty and immigration policy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Affirmative action
Equality without losing quality
College vs. no college
Problem solving vs. memorization
Inert learning
Integrating more play in schools

Direct download: 671.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT

53% of Millennials expect to become a millionaire at some point in their life. That is a lot of optimism without a lot of math. Building off that survey Michael quotes some research from a man named Ned Davis titled “Was I too Correct for My Own Good.” Ned is more pessimistic than the Millennials. He see’s the present economy as an uphill battle for making money rather than Millennials who think the money will just fall from the tree’s.

If you can stand outside the crowd and accept the notion of failure you have a great opportunity to succeed over the course of a lifetime. Imagining you are going to make a million dollars without a process is obtuse. Have a good process and stick with it. Michael ends with wisdom from “The Wisdom of Insecurity: A Message for an Age of Anxiety” by Alan Watts.

Direct download: 670.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Harvey Silverglate is an events attorney with 51 years of experience practicing in courts throughout the country. Harvey is the co-founder of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education where he serves as the current Chairman of the Board of Directors. He is also author of “Three Felonies A Day: How the Feds Target the Innocent.”

What is Harvey’s current view on the President? He is not a Trump supporter, but does not agree with Robert Mueller and how the legal system is systematically trying to pin him. What Trump has done may be politically unpalatable to some, but he is not doing anything illegal. Harvey uses Mueller to show how an overreaching prosecutor bent on getting his agenda done–get’s it done. Justice, for the most part, has nothing to do with the American legal system today.

Harvey feels we are in an era where people look at the law in an objective way rather than with passion. Colleges pump out politically correct lawyers afraid of standing for what they believe in. Harvey is fighting to reverse that trend.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trump vs. Mueller
  • Overreaching prosecutors
  • Motivations of law enforcement
  • Flaws in the justice system
Direct download: 669.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT

Why do people love preliminary polls? How did we get to the point where people believe polls are the end all? Prediction in a world that has become chaotic and unpredictable is a waste of time. Is it media that has perpetuated it? Focusing on the actual election day results, or in trading terms – the price, allows you to not be preoccupied with surrounding noise.

Michael replays an interview he recently had on Porter Stansberry’s podcast. Porter is a value investor and Michael, of course, comes at trading from a trend following perspective.

Prediction

Value strategy

Trend following strategy

Price action

Diversification

Direct download: 668.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT