Trend Following with Michael Covel (general)
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.

Peter Boettke is economist of the Austrian School. He is currently an economics and philosophy professor at George Mason University; the BB&T Professor for the Study of Capitalism, Vice President for Research, and Director of the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center at GMU. His newest book is “F. A. Hayek: Economics, Political Economy and Social Philosophy (Great Thinkers in Economics).”

Peter got hooked on economics during college after being hired for his first job – digging pools. He saw taxes being taken out of his pay and personally felt the negative effects. The philosophy behind why his checks were being garnished didn’t sit well with him. Rather than be frustrated, he got fascinated with the way economics worked and quickly saw there was something obviously wrong with the way government was ran. Along with signing up for all the economics classes he could, Peter went to the library and read. He had “a-ha” moments in those reading sessions that has molded him to be the economist he is today.

Michael and Peter touch on a broad scope of topics including: What is Peter’s perspective on President Trump’s view of trade wars and tariffs? Should intellectual property be protected? What is rent seeking and how does it relate to Jeff Bezos? What separates the American entrepreneurial spirit from entrepreneurs overseas?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trade deficits
Trump politics
Politics in the marketplace
Zero sum game
Jeff Bezos and rent seeking
The market for privileges
Merchant class mentality

Direct download: 710.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Paul Britton is a portfolio manager at Apollo Systems Research Corporation.

What got Paul going down the trend following path? In high school Paul’s dad put him into a stock that went from $5 to $60. He took his profit and put money into a couple more stocks that turned out to be winners as well. These lucky trades peaked his interest in markets. Shortly after making these initial trades, Paul’s dad also gave him a copy of “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.” He started working and looking at data trying to see if he could get a system of his own to work. He quickly learned that you can play around with entry and exit points, markets, etc., but as long as you pick up on the big trends and ride them until they lose–that was the #1 way to make money.

Paul lets the experts in different markets such as milk, coffee, orange juice, sugar, stocks, currencies, etc. “tell him how to trade” by showing their opinions hidden within the price. “You don’t need a fundamental expertise to be trading any of these markets.” Paul is in 110 different markets. He trades strictly off price and has no idea outside of price “why” stocks are going up and down. Every strategy they develop at Apollo Systems Research Corporation has to work on many markets and have maximum diversification. Paul loves adding diversity to his portfolio where other trend followers may not be.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Momentum bias
Let your winners run
Fundamental trading
Diversification
Global macro trading
Compounding
Supply and demand

Direct download: 709.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

One of the Omaha Guys Lays It Out with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 708.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Deliberate Practice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 707.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

My reach back in time to a blast from the past on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 706.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Howard Marks is an investor, writer and author of “Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.” After working in senior positions at Citibank early in his career, Howard joined The TCW Group, Inc. in 1985. He led groups within the company responsible for investments in distressed debt, high yield bonds, and convertible securities. After 10 years at The TCW Group, Inc. he co-founded Oaktree Capital Management.

Howard got into high yield bonds in August of 1978. This was a turning point in financial history because up until this moment only good companies could borrow money. High yield bonds opened the market to more risky companies and also showed Howard a different way of looking at markets. The first company he worked for had a strategy of buying stock in the 50 most successful companies in hopes they would continue to go up forever. With the advent of the high yield market he saw himself making good and steady money off of the worst/most risky companies–turning everything he had been previously been taught upside down.

Howard has lived through over 50 years of financial history and with his new book he has gone back hundreds of years to examine and study cycles. So how does Howard define a cycle? There are many different cycles–cycles in science, speed, people inhabited, etc. Cycles in the financial world are produced by people and are created by their feelings. The cycle represents a fluctuation in something around a mid-point, but time-frames and reasons for fluctuations do not repeat themselves–except for in human behavior. Looking back hundreds of years there are a few things that are underlying in every financial boom–too much optimism, too much money chasing, and too much risk aversion.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

High yield bonds
Financial cycles
Sub prime bubble
Dot-com crash
Continued learning by reading
Risk management
Decision making

Direct download: 705.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Run Rabbit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 704.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Allison Shapira is founder and CEO of Global Public Speaking LLC and author of “Speak with Impact: How to Command the Room and Influence Others.” She teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School and offers keynote speeches, workshops, and executive coaching for Fortune 500 companies, government agencies, and nonprofits around the world.

What was the process for pulling research together for her new book? Conducting interviews? Pulling from personal experience? Allison has been teaching on public speaking for over 15 years. She has hundreds of stories spanning across just about every industry – giving her the depth of knowledge needed for this book. Allison saw trends of what worked, didn’t work and how to apply that information to the real world and real people. Public speaking is a critical skill in the professional world and it is a skill that needs training and coaching to become good at. Having knowledge and expertise on a subject alone does not make you a good speaker. Speaking clearly and concisely is a craft that demands hours of practice to feel comfortable.

Allison has had some brilliant and academically distinguished mentors, however the people she has learned from and been inspired by the most are in workshops. She is inspired by getting people “over the hump” and seeing scenarios that prove that public speaking is a skill that everyone can execute.

How does she get students over that “hump?” Vocal variety, eye contact and body language are three non-verbal communication elements that are key in giving an engaging presentation. Also, when people believe in what they are speaking on and are passionate about it, they seem to be less nervous and have less anxiety. A good presentation should feel like a conversation with the audience. With that being said, there is no such thing as perfection when it comes to public speaking. There is always room for improvement – Practice, practice, practice.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Authenticity
Public speaking
Karaoke singing
Vocal variety
Eye contact
Body language

Direct download: 703.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Las Vegas Roundtrip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 702.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Jeffrey Gitomer is an author, professional speaker, and business trainer, who writes and lectures internationally on sales, customer loyalty, and personal development. He is best known for “The Little Red Book of Selling” and his newest book, coming out at the end of October, is “Truthful Living: The First Writings of Napoleon Hill.”

Jeffrey was introduced to the Napolean Hill Foundation about 10 years ago and volunteered to start writing for their newsletter with an article every Friday. Napoleon Hill was the founding father of positive attitudes. In 1917 he had a course in advertising and selling. At the end of every course he would lay out positive thinking. When the Napolean Hill Foundation found these writings, what they call “After the Lesson Visits by Napolean Hill,” the foundation approach Jeffrey about writing a book outlining his teachings. Jeffrey did not hesitate to say yes – and after years of pining over these lecture notes, his newest book was formed.

What energizes Jeffrey and motivates him to write? He loves what he does. Every day is a great day for him. He doesn’t have two days that are alike, or two books alike, or two speeches alike. He is most excited about “What is next?”. Jeffrey lives in the moment but is ready for tomorrow and his ideas, strategies, and connections – they are all in place to set him up for success in the present day and the next.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Personalization
Service as the foundation of success
Truthful living
Communication

Direct download: 701.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Tom Basso is back for episode 700. Tom is featured across Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizard” series and most famously known as “Mr. Serenity.” He was featured on episode 400 of Trend Following Radio with a mega 4 ½ hour episode, and today he is back for this new episode. Now retired from managing client money, Tom was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998.

Although Tom has been retired for over 15 years he still gets emails daily from aspiring traders. While on vacation with his wife, they came up with a more efficient solution to answering all these emails. Tom decided to start an educational platform that he more candidly describes as a “Tom Basso brain dump into a website.” He has had 28 years of experience managing money and over 40 years of managing his own money. With all that knowledge, his new website addresses what he feels new and old traders alike struggle with. All content on his website will be free aside from his personal training videos and a narrated version of his book “Panic-Proof Investing.”

What is it about the individual that is so important in trading? How do you become the best trader you can be? How does exercise and diet play into trading? How do you separate self worth from your net worth? How do you stay young in your energy? Michael and Tom keep their conversation on trading today more philosophical rather than technical.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trend following philosophy
Separation of net worth from self worth
How to view winning trades vs. losing trades
Staying mentally young
Brooks Koepka vs. Tiger Woods
Dealing with stress in the markets
Social media stressors

Direct download: 700.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Tiffani Bova is author of “Growth IQ: Get Smarter About the Choices that Will Make or Break Your Business.” She has a unique background, with 20 years of experience spread between start-ups and fortune 500 companies. Tiffani has put together a first hand look at what it takes to start and run a successful business as an entrepreneur.

How did Tiffani get her start in business? Early in her career she would ask executives and CEO’s constantly for little tid-bits of knowledge–she wasn’t afraid to step out of her comfort zone and ask for help. That feedback and confidence building was the cornerstone to becoming who she is today. What gave Tiffani the courage to talk to these leaders and say “please help and give me some advice?” Sports played a huge role. Win or lose, she learned how to conduct herself and hold her head high no mater what the turnout of a game was.

Growth IQ is a dense book with many case studies. Tiffani researched about 30 companies from all backgrounds including Kylie Cosmetics, Honest Co., and Under Armor–using them as examples to show how to build and sustain successful businesses. She also shows companies hitting forks in the road and how they overcame. Every case study may not be useful to everyone but there are lessons to be learned from all.

Tiffani stresses that it is sometimes the little changes made that make all the difference between a failed venture or a successful one. What are some good questions to reflect on if your business is not where you think it should be?: Is the order you are presenting your product off? Are you selling to the wrong demographic? Are you giving customers the wrong experience?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Flexing your confidence muscle
The power of now
Selling to your demographic
Buddhism
Growing a business

Direct download: 699.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

The Whipsaw Guy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 698.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Jerry Parker is back on the podcast. He is the founder of Chesapeake Capital, was one of the original TurtleTraders trained by Richard Dennis and has had unbelievable success over his four decade career. Jerry brings to the table a straightforward way of breaking down how trend following works.

Trend following relates to everything – from Wall Street to baseball. One of Jerry’s early heroes was John W. Henry, a successful trend following trader and now owner of the Boston Red Sox. Michael and Jerry break apart how John W. Henry and others cross the trend following mindset into sports and beyond.

What is Jerry Parker’s worldview? “It’s dangerous out there and you cannot predict it. Stocks are not superior and they are not the go-to investment all the time. Pay attention to the trend. Protect yourself. Be humble, conservative and worried about risk.” He doesn’t see that view changing anytime soon for anyone – including investors. What do investors want? And do they know what they want? Jerry knows he can’t make everyone happy but he try’s to provide appropriate risk control for his clients without missing out on too much profit.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Baseball analytics
Lumpy returns
Crisis alpha
Having a process and sticking to it
Value Investing
Bobby Axelrod

Direct download: 697.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Michael explores new research showing pharmaceutical statins do nothing to help prevent medical problems relating to heart disease–if you have no risks. For years people have believed there was a special pill to save them from high cholesterol. Turns out, there is no special pill to help–exercise, eat well, get adequate sleep–these things are how you improve your health. It’s about personal responsibility. Trust yourself? Or trust the system that has been proven wrong time and time again?

$400 billion dollars has been lost in crypto currencies. Michael shares an example of a man who lost 95% of his $120,000 investment in Bitcoin. When Bitcoin started going down he tried diversifying into other crypto currencies. He said his learning process was like “solving the plot of a murder mystery.” The notion that he could use fundamental data and figure out how to trade Bitcoin was all wrong. Jerry Parker commented on this story by saying, “He should have studied trend following.” Having a stop in place, and looking at the data would have saved him from his financial ruin.

Statins and cryptos connect? You bet.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Big pharma
Statins
Trusting the system
Personal responsibility

Direct download: 696.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Scott Belsky is an American entrepreneur, author and early-stage investor best known for co-creating the online portfolio platform, Behance, Inc. He is author of several books with his latest being “The Messy Middle: Finding Your Way Through the Hardest and Most Crucial Part of Any Bold Venture.”

How did Scott get started as an entrepreneur? He started his first business with two partners selling paper products. He bootstrapped his way through the industry for the first few years – accepting no outside help. It wasn’t until five years into building his company that he had to move in the direction of needing to raise funding. However, at that point Scott and his partners had already built their company at their own pace and on their own terms.

When starting a new business there are a lot of questions that come up: How do I prepare for the long term? How do I hire someone? How do I fire someone? How do I structure team communication? How do I become a better decision maker? How do I continue to make a better product? Scott’s new book is a guide to help answer all these questions.

Uncertainty may be one of the biggest roadblocks in deciding to start a business. What does uncertainty mean to Scott? Uncertainty is a burden that must be processed continually. The more you embrace doing something on your own, the more you will learn how to cope and process that fear.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Seth Godin
Entrepreneurship
Enduring lows and optimizing highs
Uncertainty in business
Starting a business
Staying engaged
Self awareness

Direct download: 695.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Ken Kocienda was a software engineer/designer at Apple for over fifteen years and is now the author of “Creative Selection: Inside Apple’s Design Process During the Golden Age of Steve Jobs.” After being introduced to the internet in 1994 he taught himself computer programming and made his way through a succession of dot-com-era startups, before landing a job at Apple in 2001. He worked on software teams responsible for creating the Safari web browser, iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.

Ken entered college with the mindset of becoming a history professor or even a photographer. He had various interests in college, however none of them were in the technology sphere. He moved to Japan after college for a few years and upon moving back to the United States, he was introduced to the internet for the first time and instantly intrigued by it.

Ken interviewed for Apple in spring of 2001 before the iPod had been released--Apple was still relying on the Mac as their main revenue stream at the time. Ken had loved Apple products since he saw his first Mac in 1984 so when he was hired on at Apple it was surreal. His first job was to make Apple a web browser of its own – what we all know as Safari today. Later, in 2004, he joined the team to make the software for the iPhone’s touchscreen operating system, among other products.

Inspiration, collaboration, craft, diligence, decisiveness, taste and empathy are seven attributes Ken uses to describe how Apple became the success story they are today. Steve Jobs and Apple chased perfection and demanded nothing short of it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Pyramid of demos
Steve Jobs thought process
Apple company philosophy
Completely present in the moment
Reality distortion field
Creative selection
Green Bay Packers and Vince Lombardi

Direct download: 694.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Terence C.M. Tse is an educator, speaker, advisor and commentator. He is a co-founder of Nexus FrontierTech and co-author of “Understanding How the Future Unfolds: Using Drive to Harness the Power of Today’s Mega Trends.” His mantra is “You can’t predict the future, but you can be ready with a plan.”

Terence’s book focuses on a term he calls “Presentcasting.” He does not promote forecasting but rather teaches people to look at what’s in front of them and see how things are unfolding in current time. He has created the acronym DRIVE – defining 5 interrelated mega trends: demographic and social changes, resource scarcity, inequalities, volatility, complexity and scale and enterprising dynamics. These are the five directions Terence points clients in when they start thinking about improving their lives.

What is one way to step outside the box and get a better look at trends unfolding? Travel. Traveling is crucial to seeing the speed in development and change happening around the world. Desire to climb the economic ladder is not exclusive to one culture or another. Everyone is looking for the same economic wealth. Most cultures promote the desire to get a college degree, however this leaves young adults lacking the ability to take risks. The education system trains students to study, take exams well and work in certain defined jobs. However, in today’s world learning how to deal with uncertainty, have an entrepreneurship mindset, and take a little risk are the skills that will help young adults get ahead an prosper.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Preparing of uncertainty
Entrepreneurship
Economics abroad
New technology
Rise of the internet
Disappearance of white collar jobs
Student loans

Direct download: 693.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Bob Woodward Spins John Belushi with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 692.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Gregory Aldrete is a professor of history and humanistic studies at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay, where he has been teaching since 1995. His emphasis is on rhetoric and oratory, floods in Rome, ancient Greek and Roman history, and daily life in the Roman world. What was life like in ancient Roman times? How did people do things in the ancient Roman Empire? These questions are what fascinates Gregory and keeps him moving forward in his research.

What relevance does ancient history have to us today? We are ever presently walking in the footsteps of those who came before us and until you understand the history of prior civilizations, you cannot fully understand who you are. It is the blunders and the achievements of our ancestors that have built up what we see today. There is not much that can be taken away from talking heads in the news and on Twitter, but much can be learned from the study of history.

How does Gregory describe a military blunder? To be a true blunder, the situation must have been avoidable. It could have or should have turned out a different way, but because of someone’s mistakes it didn’t. One of the biggest failures of leadership, which consequently leads to blunders, is overconfidence. Michael and Greg give examples of catastrophic blunders ranging from the Battle of the Little Big Horn to Napoleon and Hitler.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Butterfly effect
Overconfidence in leadership
Napoleon’s biggest blunder
Battle of the Little Big Horn
Hitler
D-Day
Technology and understanding its potential

Direct download: 691.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Speed with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. Michael goes back to his archives for two of the fastest men in the world. Risk takers extraordinaire!

Direct download: 690.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Safe is Not Really Safe with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 689.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Bob Enck is the CEO of Equinox Funds and has overseen all operations at the fund since March of 2007. Prior to joining Equinox Funds, Bob worked for about 20 years with large, highly regulated health care organizations including Bristol-Myers Squibb as well as with more entrepreneurial venture capital funded organizations.

When was Bob exposed to trend following for the first time? What was his a-ha moment? While he was doing merger and acquisition work, a couple of his friends consistently would ask him to look over literature from their firm to get input. His first exposure to trend following came from that research. The concept of trend following clicked with him and “just made sense.” His real light bulb moment was realizing that Equinox funds could make money in up and down markets. His friends soon asked him to join their company as CEO.

What is so unique about Equinox Funds? They have paved the way in researching and developing alternative investment strategies for clients through unique investment vehicles. They created the first multi-strategy managed futures mutual fund–the Frontier Fund. In a field where many companies tend to become complacent and set in their ways, Equinox brings innovation and creative thinking to the market. Bob and Michael explore the full range of issues across the alternative space.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trend following in up and down markets
Drawdowns
Trend following performance
Discretion
WTF
Forecasting

Direct download: 688.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Peter Leeson is an economics professor at George Mason University and is known for connecting rational choice theory with unusual domains. He looks at human behavior as a series of puzzles that are being solved by those involved. He focuses his studies on everything from bizarre rituals and superstitions to the behavior of Caribbean pirates. Peter’s work has also been quoted as “Freakonomics on steroids.”

How does Peter come up with some of his “crazy” ideas? He likes to have a broad library to read from, particularly history books. As he reads he comes across a lot of practices that may seem outlandish to most, but fascinating to him. From there he digs deeper and finds meaning in certain practices through religion, economics, politics, etc.

Throughout Peter’s work it is clear that the main motivator driving behavior is incentives. What happens when we have government incentives vs. private incentives? Michael and Peter finish the podcast talking government intervention, wealth creation and cultural behavior driving capitalistic efforts.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Somalia pirates
Anarchy vs. government
Medieval law and order
Trial by jury
Logic of incentives
Street hustlers

Direct download: 687.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Brooks Koepka has won three major golf championships in the last 14 months. He has had the emotional fortitude to push through the obvious pressures of being on the top, especially for being only 28 years old.

Brooks wasn’t able to go pro right out of college and moved to Europe to get his PGA tour card. He wasn’t thrilled about having to go overseas to get his chance at the pros in the U.S., but with a chip on his shoulder he used that as motivation to push forward, excel and win championships.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Emotional fortitude
Operating outside the system
Extreme focus
Cryptocurrency crashes

Direct download: 686.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Lawrence Krauss is a theoretical physicist and cosmologist, professor at Arizona State University, director of its Origins Project and author of bestselling books: “The Physics of Star Trek” and “A Universe from Nothing.” He is an advocate for science based data, public policy based on sound empirical data, and scientific skepticism. His goal is to reduce the influence of superstition and religious dogma in popular culture. His most recent book is “The Greatest Story Ever Told–So Far: Why Are We Here?”

When did Lawrence first discover he was a skeptic, someone who would think outside the box? He was encouraged to think for himself from a very early age. He grew up Jewish but slowly grew out of ideas that surrounded the religion. No real a-ha moment, just gradually decided that religion wasn’t something he could believe in. In 6th grade he also began doing poorly in school. His parents moved him to a different school where he subsequently did much better. Lawrence knew that he wasn’t a different person, but it was other people’s expectations that wavered how he performed. From then on, he was conscious of not letting others opinions of him bring down his performance.

Richard Feynman has played a large role in Lawrence and his studies. He is a great example of someone who did not let other’s hinder him. Feynman was charismatic, intelligent, and excited about all things new – he didn’t rely on other’s opinions. The charisma Feynman possessed, combined with the genius of his science made him the legend.

How does Lawrence describe science? It is a process rather than a collection of facts. Science helps to establish what is true from what is non-sense. It also breaks the sensible from the non-sensible. Lawrence brings this mindset into religion taking a controversial stance saying, “God is completely irrelevant to science.” He fiercely believes that the idea of religion was created as a way to explain how the world worked before we had the technology and science to know how it actually works.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Big bang theory
Religion in science
Simulations
Skepticism

Direct download: 685.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

While Michael was visiting the United States recently his assistant sent him some inspiring old Time Magazines and Saturday Evening Post Magazines. Some that particularly stood out? A 1959 Time Magazine with a story about Nicolas Darvas and a 1976 Time Magazine profiling Richard Dennis when he was 27 years old. These two men laid so much of trend following thinking and to see some original articles in print was inspiring.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Modern American male
Trend following fundamentals
Philosophy behind trend following
Black swans
Fundamentals
Ego in trading

Direct download: 684.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Gabriel Radvansky studies mental model theory for human memory and cognition. He strives to understand how people create, organize, store and retrieve mental models. Also, how younger and older adults differ on their use of mental models.

What triggered Gabriel to study cognition memory? He was hooked from the day he took his first introductory psychology class. His teacher’s description of what a psychologist did instantly caught his attention and from there he knew the path he wanted to go down. His original major in college was physics, he then switched to AI computer science and moved into psychology. Because of his other majors, he comes at psychology from a scientific approach.

Gabriel has done extensive research on how a person’s environment changes ones memory. Why does walking through doors make you lose your train of thought? Moving from one environment to another, your brain naturally wants to leave some things behind and pick up new things. Different rooms represent different memories and your brain has been trained to adapt. Humans have the same type of trigger when it comes to computer windows and stories within a book – when a character goes from one location to another, information gets forgotten and lost.

Memory is not about the past – we have memories so we know what to do now, and to help us know what to do in the future. What helps one memory stick more than another? The more emotion linked to a memory, the more vividly you remember those events. Memories with an emotional consequence trigger better and faster than those with no emotion linked to them. What are some steps you can take to help your memory? Write things down and have as many broad experiences as you possibly can.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Event cognition
Work environments
Forgetting curve
Long term vs. short-term memory
Environments where our brains learn best
Memory research

Direct download: 683.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Trend Following Deep Dive with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Direct download: 682.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Bradley Campbell is a sociologist whose research focuses on moral conflict — clashes of right and wrong and how they are handled. His work primarily looked at genocide arising from large-scale interethnic conflicts , but recently he has begun to examine smaller-scale conflicts on modern college campuses. Since about 2013 he has studied the phenomena of micro aggression complaints, calls for trigger warnings and safe spaces. He views this new era as, “Manifestations of ongoing moral change and the clash of different moral ideals.” He addresses these topics in his book, “The Rise of Victimhood Culture: Micro aggressions, Safe Spaces, and the New Culture Wars.”

How did Bradley shift from macro aggression and genocide around the world to micro aggression on college campuses? He was always interested in answering, “Why do people have conflict? And what causes someone to handle that conflict in a particular way?” How are conflicts handled with the legal system? When someone has a grievance, do they avoid them? So what makes someone choose violence over law or avoidance?

With every generation, comes a different way of being taught how to handle conflict. Where one generation may have been taught to have thicker skin and not take things so seriously, today’s kids have been taught to take offense to every micro insult that might make them feel uneasy. Where there is more equality and in places that value diversity, there tends to be more sensitivity to insults – therefore lots of micro insults tend to add up to big offenses.

Are college campuses a place that should display robust conversation? Or should they be a place where free speech is censored? Bradley argues that, if anything, college campuses should encourage free speech. Unfortunately, words are being viewed as literally violent and should be censored. Michael and Bradley end the conversation on where college students stand on Trump and politics today.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Hate crimes
Genocide
Micro aggression
Macro aggression
Victim culture
Trigger warnings
Trust in government
Safe spaces
Free speech

Direct download: 681.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:11pm EST

“Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions” by Gerd Gigerenzer is one of Michael’s favorite books from the last 10 years. Today, Michael reaches into the archives and plays an interview with Gerd Gigerenzer.

Gerd is a psychologist who studies the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making and investigates how humans make inferences about their world with limited time and knowledge. He is director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Daniel Kahneman vs. Gigerenzer’s views
Heuristics vs. statistics
Medical check-ups
Taking risks
Instincts vs. expert advice
Relative vs. absolute risk
Benjamin Franklin’s ledger
Heuristics
Unconscious intelligence

Direct download: 680.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Jeffrey Miron is an economist, served as chairman of the Department of Economics at Boston University, currently teaches economics at Harvard University, and holds the position of Director of Economic Policy Studies at the Cato Institute.

Jeffrey came to be a libertarian from an economics standpoint rather than philosophical, with Milton Friedman at the helm of his influencers. What got Jeffrey heading down the liberty path? Economics teaches that there are unexpected consequences with interventions. Jeffrey randomly started working on drug legalization in college and came to the conclusion that ramifications of outlawing anything would apply to all markets whether it be guns or drugs.

America spends about 50 billion a year as a country to fight drug laws- couple that with missing out on 50 billion a year in taxes if drugs were legalized and one can see the economic missteps. In addition, studies show there would be a decrease in crime, corruption and less interruption of people being able to use drugs medicinally with drug legalization. Michael and Jeffrey not only touch on the economics of libertarianism in America, but around the world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Cato Institute
Libertarianism
Bootleggers
Ramifications of drug prohibition
Modern Chinese commerce
Ripple effect of bankruptcy
Bernie Sanders campaign
Donald Trump campaign

Direct download: 679.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

A Peaceful Easy Feeling with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 678.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Mark Blyth is a political scientist from Scotland and a professor of international political economy at Brown University.

What influenced Mark early on? John Maynard Keynes was his foundation. He also was growing up through the permanent recessions of the 1980’s and learning first hand about pitfalls in the economy. He quickly saw how the macro economy was so much different than the micro and how studying the economy as a whole was more important than just looking at the individual.

Mark called the Donald Trump win for Presidency in June of 2016. Why? Trump was willing to acknowledge there was a problem. He was dramatically different and played to the individual rather than big business. In 2015 Wall Street bonuses were twice the amount of the total wages of people earning minimum wage. Since that 2015 statistic, the inequality has only gotten greater. Trump gave people hope that things can change – that he could change them.

What are some macro steps that can get the U.S. economy heading in the right direction today? Dissolve monopolies and raise corporate taxes creating long-term productivity gains. Because of tax ride-offs a monopolized economy has been created. The government has allowed and engineered large businesses to run America and it’s time to re-arrange the model. Another problem? Americans have become dependent on passive investing and don’t know what to do when volatility happens. They have become blind to risk, due to lack of volatility for the last 10 years. Michael and Mark end on the question: “Can the economy sustain the next 10 years like this?”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trump campaign
Raising interest rates
Tax cuts
Infrastructure
General data protection regulation
Black swans
Passive investing
Efficient market hypothesis

Direct download: 677.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Markets and Profit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 676.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Jerry Muller is a professor of history at The Catholic University of America, where he has taught since 1984. His latest book is “The Tyranny of Metrics.” Quantifying metrics can be a good thing, however, it can easily go too far and have great consequences.

Jerry sees pitfalls of focusing too much on metrics everywhere – schools, hospitals, even venture capital. Children gear their learning toward beating a test rather than intellectually developing their mind. Doctors fixate on standardized performance measures, rewards and punishment, and publicized accountability. The system encourages and sometimes requires doctors to game the system. Venture capitalism, the very field where creativity should prosper, tends to foster an anti-creative atmosphere. Investors want to see data to back up a new product so they can see proof of a future profit. The problem? New innovations don’t have data because they have never been seen before in the marketplace.

Using metrics in schools, hospitals, and business can be extremely useful depending on what context it is used, but alone they are not enough. Human development as well as human experience should be weaved into the equation. Michael and Jerry finish the podcast up talking metrics in China, how it has lead to gaming the system and taken a toll on developing research.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Intrinsic motivation
Tyranny of metrics
Metric fixation
Metrics in law enforcement
Metrics in health industry
Managerial ideology
Powerpoint presentations
Metrics in China

Direct download: 675.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Michael plays three epic interviews with Ed Seykota, Martin Lueck and Jean-Philippe Bouchaud profiled in chapter’s 12, 13 and 14 of his newest edition of Trend Following: How to Make a Fortune in Bull, Bear and Black Swan Markets.

Ed Seykota was originally profiled in the classic book “The Market Wizards.” Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years.

Martin Lueck holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University and currently is the Research Director and President of Aspect Capital. Lueck was originally with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded with Michael Adam and David Harding.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Govopoly
Systems trading
Diversification
Behavioral economics
Death of trend following
Exploiting vs. exploring
Behavioral biases
Risk

Direct download: 674.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Christopher Ryan is best known for co-authoring “Sex at Dawn.” The book deals with the evolution of monogamy in humans and human mating systems. In opposition to what the authors see as the “standard narrative” of human sexual evolution, they contend that having multiple sexual partners was common and accepted in the environment of evolutionary adaptedness.

What was the start of Christopher going doing his path? One of the more pivotal moments was when he was an undergraduate in college. He was able to skip his junior year of college and subsequently hitchhiked to Alaska. Before that journey to Alaska, he thought the world was a dangerous place. Once he got outside his bubble and met strangers, he learned how kind and generous people were. It shifted the way he thought about life and the world.

After graduating he spent his 20’s and 30’s backpacking through Asia and South America. His a-ha moment was realizing that most of what he was told about the world was bullshit. Governments have an agenda and prop up their society to make other places seem less superior. Christopher quickly saw that the cultural message telling us that it’s a “dog eat dog world” was not true.

There are different attributes that everyone shares. What is universal? What do we all share? Consciousness, sexuality, comedy, etc. these are all things that translate across cultures and continents. Learning about these things is what excites Christopher and why he continues to learn, study and teach.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Monogamy
Hunter and gatherer society
Agricultural revolution
Culture of women sexuality
Sexual transmitted disease
War on masturbation
Social groups

Direct download: 673.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Michael shares the Preface and Chapter One of his book, “The Complete TurtleTrader.” “The Complete TurtleTrader” is a classic nature vs. nurture story starring famed traders Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt. Are people born with the innate ability to trade? Or can it be taught? Dennis believed that anyone could be taught to trade successful with the right set of rules, Eckhardt disagreed – and from there this epic experiment was born. These men took 23 novice traders, gave them millions and taught them how to be successful on Wall Street.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Nature vs. Nurture
Efficient markets
Beating the market
Systems trading
Behavioral finance

Direct download: 672.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Bryan Caplan is an economist and professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and blogger for EconLog. Bryan has written several books–his newest being “The Case against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money.” His main goal for the book is for people to forget education propaganda, look at what is right in front of them and examine what they have learned first hand.

From a young age Bryan always wondered, “Why do I need to learn this stuff? I am never going to use it.” The further he got along in school the more passionate he became about that belief. Yet it wasn’t until he started studying economics that he found there were other like-minded people who thought how he was thinking.

What is the problem with everyone getting a college degree? To stand out you now need to get another degree. Credential inflation has only gone up. People are spending too many years studying subjects that do not interest them, just to graduate and never use that information again. They get multiple degrees to do a job that would have only taken a high school diploma 30 years ago. It has been ingrained in so many that the education system enriches lives. However, the wall between formal education and practical education is ever growing. Bryan doesn’t hate education, he just believes people need to be more realistic about their interests and learning capabilities.

Michael and Bryan finish up discussing Bryan’s new books coming out about poverty and immigration policy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Affirmative action
Equality without losing quality
College vs. no college
Problem solving vs. memorization
Inert learning
Integrating more play in schools

Direct download: 671.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EST

53% of Millennials expect to become a millionaire at some point in their life. That is a lot of optimism without a lot of math. Building off that survey Michael quotes some research from a man named Ned Davis titled “Was I too Correct for My Own Good.” Ned is more pessimistic than the Millennials. He see’s the present economy as an uphill battle for making money rather than Millennials who think the money will just fall from the tree’s.

If you can stand outside the crowd and accept the notion of failure you have a great opportunity to succeed over the course of a lifetime. Imagining you are going to make a million dollars without a process is obtuse. Have a good process and stick with it. Michael ends with wisdom from “The Wisdom of Insecurity: A Message for an Age of Anxiety” by Alan Watts.

Direct download: 670.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Harvey Silverglate is an events attorney with 51 years of experience practicing in courts throughout the country. Harvey is the co-founder of the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education where he serves as the current Chairman of the Board of Directors. He is also author of “Three Felonies A Day: How the Feds Target the Innocent.”

What is Harvey’s current view on the President? He is not a Trump supporter, but does not agree with Robert Mueller and how the legal system is systematically trying to pin him. What Trump has done may be politically unpalatable to some, but he is not doing anything illegal. Harvey uses Mueller to show how an overreaching prosecutor bent on getting his agenda done–get’s it done. Justice, for the most part, has nothing to do with the American legal system today.

Harvey feels we are in an era where people look at the law in an objective way rather than with passion. Colleges pump out politically correct lawyers afraid of standing for what they believe in. Harvey is fighting to reverse that trend.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trump vs. Mueller
  • Overreaching prosecutors
  • Motivations of law enforcement
  • Flaws in the justice system
Direct download: 669.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EST

Why do people love preliminary polls? How did we get to the point where people believe polls are the end all? Prediction in a world that has become chaotic and unpredictable is a waste of time. Is it media that has perpetuated it? Focusing on the actual election day results, or in trading terms – the price, allows you to not be preoccupied with surrounding noise.

Michael replays an interview he recently had on Porter Stansberry’s podcast. Porter is a value investor and Michael, of course, comes at trading from a trend following perspective.

Prediction

Value strategy

Trend following strategy

Price action

Diversification

Direct download: 668.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Timur Kuran is an economist, professor of economics and political Science, Gorter Family Professor in Islamic Studies at Duke University and author of “Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification.” His work spans economics, political science, history, and legal studies.

Timur is responsible for coining the term “preference falsification.” So what is preference falsification? It is the act of misrepresenting ones wants because of social pressures. There is a movement going through colleges where students feel they are being suppressed. They don’t feel they can express themselves because of fear they may be called a racist, sexist, etc. Despite America being seen as a country of freedom and self-expression, 90% of students feel they cannot speak freely or engage with professors and other students in lively debate.

What was the a-ha trigger moment that pushed Timur toward working on preference falsification? It happened while he was a PhD student studying economics. While learning about different theories, he looked around the classroom and knew not all of the students agreed or accepted the theories being taught. He felt uncomfortable himself challenging his professor and knew there was more to how he was feeling and how his classmates seemingly felt. This stayed in the back of his mind throughout his PhD program and he decided that after graduation he would start working on his new theory.

Timur uses the 2016 U.S. election between Clinton and Trump as an example of preference falsification. Trump showed he wasn’t afraid to take on the establishment, no matter how high up they may be. He challenged the media, a war hero, and other politicians and made them look like victimizers. Trump understood “the thinkable” and “the unthinkable.” By tapping into unthinkable thoughts that had never been articulated by other politicians, Trump gave hope to millions of people who otherwise may have discounted him. Timur also uses the 2011 Egyptian uprising as well as the caste system in India as other examples.

Direct download: 667.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Aaron Brown is a finance practitioner, expert on risk management and gambling, speaks frequently at professional and academic conferences and author of “Red-Blooded Risk,” “The Poker Face of Wall Street,” and co-author of “A World of Chance.” He was Chief Risk Manager at AQR Capital Management and one of the original developers of value at risk.

At 8 or 9 years old Aaron would read the newspaper everyday just to see the sports and Wall Street numbers. Over time, he started to see patterns in those numbers and felt he might be able to make money off it. He came across a book at his library that mathematically proved he could “beat the house.” At age 14 Aaron knew he could walk into a poker game and walk out with his opponents money. He gambled into his early 20’s until he realized the real money to be made was on Wall Street.

How does Aaron define being a quant? Someone who makes calculations and then bets on those calculations. Clients are drawn to Aaron because he is known for being able to solve problems most cannot. That being said, he only takes on problems where he knows there is a solution. When hired, Aaron disrupts systems mainly because he operates on the opposite side of Wall Street. He unveils flaws in systems – disrupting sales and creating more work for developers.

Michael and Aaron finish up discussing, “What is a black swan event?” It is a low probability, high impact event because it was unexpected. Drawing from Nassim Taleb’s wisdom, “People over estimate the last event happening again and underestimate the next crisis.”

Direct download: 666.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Cyrus Farivar is a Senior Tech Policy Reporter at Ars Technica, radio producer and author of “Habeas Data: Privacy vs. the Rise of Surveillance Tech.” Cyrus sees the privacy battle as an ever winding, never-ending road. Privacy is hard, national security is hard, law enforcement is hard but Cyrus is optimistic we can strike a good balance between all three.

Do we really know the extent to which we are being watched? Probably not. Surveillance technology affects us all – for better or worse. For example, nearly half of Americans are in facial recognition data bases. In addition, most Americans have a drivers license, identification card, or passport – putting just about every adult into a government system.

Does this mean privacy is dead? Not necessarily. Some things will continue to be private. Cyrus lays out some companies that build their whole business model around keeping the information of their clients secure from any outsiders – whether it be a private citizen or the government.

Having heightened security and better technology has it’s advantages and disadvantages. Obvious disadvantage? Loss of privacy. What is one advantage? Law enforcement can not only use surveillance to catch bad guys, but it can also be used to keep themselves in check. Just about every person has a phone with great video technology. Everything is recorded and everything can be seen. Michael and Cyrus end the conversation discussing the controversy around aerial surveillance and private use of drones.

Direct download: 665.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EST

@Naval is an angel investor Michael follows on Twitter. Michael shares a Twitter post he had titled: “How to Get Rich Without Getting Lucky,” weaving in his commentary throughout. The bullet points:

1. Seek wealth, not money or status. Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. Money is how we transfer time and wealth. Status is your place in the social hierarchy. 2. Understand that ethical wealth creation is possible. If you secretly despise wealth, it will elude you. 3. Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games. 4.You’re not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity - a piece of a business - to gain your financial freedom. 5. You will get rich by giving society what it wants but does not yet know how to get. At scale. 6. Pick an industry where you can play long term games with long term people. 7. The Internet has massively broadened the possible space of careers. Most people haven't figured this out yet. 8. lay iterated games. All the returns in life, whether in wealth, relationships, or knowledge, come from compound interest. 9. Pick business partners with high intelligence, energy, and, above all, integrity. 10. Don't partner with cynics and pessimists. Their beliefs are self-fulfilling. 11. Learn to sell. Learn to build. If you can do both, you will be unstoppable. 12. Arm yourself with specific knowledge, accountability, and leverage.
13. Specific knowledge is knowledge that you cannot be trained for. If society can train you, it can train someone else, and replace you. 14. Specific knowledge is found by pursuing your genuine curiosity and passion rather than whatever is hot right now. 15. Building specific knowledge will feel like play to you but will look like work to others. 16. When specific knowledge is taught, it’s through apprenticeships, not schools. 17. Specific knowledge is often highly technical or creative. It cannot be outsourced or automated. 18. Embrace accountability, and take business risks under your own name. Society will reward you with responsibility, equity, and leverage. 19. The most accountable people have singular, public, and risky brands: Oprah, Trump, Kanye, Elon. 20. “Give me a lever long enough, and a place to stand, and I will move the earth.” - Archimedes 21. Fortunes require leverage. Business leverage comes from capital, people, and products with no marginal cost of replication (code and media). 22. Capital means money. To raise money, apply your specific knowledge, with accountability, and show resulting good judgment. 23. Labor means people working for you. It's the oldest and most fought-over form of leverage. Labor leverage will impress your parents, but don’t waste your life chasing it. 24. Capital and labor are permissioned leverage. Everyone is chasing capital, but someone has to give it to you. Everyone is trying to lead, but someone has to follow you. 25. Code and media are permissionless leverage. They're the leverage behind the newly rich. You can create software and media that works for you while you sleep. 26. An army of robots is freely available - it's just packed in data centers for heat and space efficiency. Use it. 27. If you can't code, write books and blogs, record videos and podcasts. 28. Leverage is a force multiplier for your judgment. 29. Judgment requires experience, but can be built faster by learning foundational skills. 30. There is no skill called “business.” Avoid business magazines and business classes.

Direct download: 664.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

All fundamental data, insights, and prediction, reduces to price. Price is the foundation for all trading. Michael caught a reminder of this in a recent twitter debate with Elon Musk. A NBC reporter challenged Musk on his insights and wanted him to come by the news room to have an interview and see his “process”. Michael reads the debate between the reporter, Musk and Scott Adams (creator of the Dilbert comic strip). Michael weaves his commentary and insights throughout.

Direct download: 663.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Daniel Klein is a professor of economics at George Mason University and an Associate Fellow of the Swedish Ratio Institute. Much of his research examines public policy questions, libertarian political philosophy, and the sociology of academia. He is the chief editor of Econ Journal Watch.

When did Daniel first embrace the idea “liberty”? He was dissatisfied with the school system for most of his childhood. A friend asked him “Have you ever thought about why school sucks?” His friend explained that students don’t get to choose where they go to school, there is no private ownership, schools don’t have choice in curriculum etc. He quickly saw the system as a socialist operation and suddenly “Why school sucked” all made sense to him. This gave way to him falling into a free economic market, libertarian, and Austrian Economics way of thinking.

Into college he gradually discovered Adam Smith, David Hume, and other 18th century thinkers. Through research he saw that the word “liberal” was not used in a political sense until about the time of Adam Smith. People had thought of ideas associated with liberalism but when Smith came out with “The Wealth of Nations,” he finally put a name to this way of thinking. Regardless of whether people agreed with his politics or not, his ideas spread throughout the world.

To really understand the arc of liberalism throughout the years it is important to learn what happened in the past and see the progression. Today, terms such as “The left”, “Dem”, and “Progressive” are all terms that have been adopted by others to accept liberalism.

Direct download: 662.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Agustín Fuentes is a primatologist and biological anthropologist focusing largely on human and non-human primate interaction, pathogen transfer, communication, cooperation, and human social evolution. His most recent book is “The Creative Spark: How Imagination Made Humans Exceptional.”

How did Agustín begin studying anthropology? From an early age he loved trying to figure out what made people tick. By studying other primates and what human ancestors did, he came to find that we are creative and imaginative in ways people didn’t think we had the capacity for.

Agustín found that through innovation, collaboration and creativity learning happens. What are some examples of innovation from our ancestors? Fire is one of the most basic, yet amazing discoveries of our ancestors. No species on the planet, besides humans, use fire. Use of fire gave humans the opportunity to change the composition of materials to mold utility items, change food composition, and provide the opportunity to break the day and night cycle.

Collaboration can be seen in instances of warfare. Are we inherently violent? Yes. Humans have the capacity for intense violence. However, when studying warfare, it is all about collaboration and putting your life on the line for the greater good of the army – not about who has the most violent army. Collaboration is the bottom line in when it comes to winning a war.

Once people were able to convey information with language, huge advancements were able to happen in creativity. In the last 100,000 years or so art happened, and humans were able to convey imagination. Speech and hearing coincided with art and showcased our capacity for creativity. Michael and Agustín finish the podcast talking diversity. Throughout the ages, diversity has been the norm for humans. When you get outside of your bubble, and explore the world a little, you see first hand the immense differences in advancements and innovation throughout cultures.

Direct download: 661.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Frank Conway is host of the Economic Rockstar podcast. Michael made a recent appearance on Frank’s show and shares it today on his podcast:

  • Origins of trend following
  • What is trend following
  • Trend following performance
  • Eugene Fama
  • Momentum
  • TurtleTrading
  • CNBC
  • Bitcoin
Direct download: 660.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Shane Snow is author of “Dream Teams: Working Together Without Falling Apart” and the bestseller, “Smartcuts.” Shane is also an award-winning journalist, celebrated entrepreneur, and co-founder of Contently.

When thinking about great teams we often think of just the best players. Shane uses the success of the Soviet Union’s 1980’s hockey team as an example and sheds light on what made them so uniquely successful. It was not the individuals that defined the success of the team, it was the collective team as a whole. Their team wasn’t about having a guy that could score a lot of points. Each player was dedicated to doing whatever they needed to do to get the hockey puck in the goal.

That 1980’s Soviet hockey team also fostered a diverse set of minds. Historically we reduce classifications to what we can see. Having a diverse team doesn’t just mean having people of a different race, gender, sexual orientation, etc. If you want a group to be smarter than its smartest member, you need a team of people who all think differently. This is where cognitive diversity is important – the best ideas often come from a round-table of minds debating. However, it can be easy to go too far when building a diverse team and end up with a group of people trying to destroy each other rather than cultivating innovative ideas.

What is the leading cause of failure in business and relationships? Communication. Combining various perspectives from people are what often adds up to one great new innovation. Looking at new angles is the only way to break new ground. Unfortunately, a lot of what we think is crazy gets shut out. Those crazy ideas are what need to be heard the most.

Direct download: 659.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Matthew Walker is Professor of Neuroscience and Psychology at the University of California, Berkeley, and Founder and Director of the Center for Human Sleep Science. His new book is “Why We Sleep.” Matthew’s mission is to reunite humanity with sleep.

How did Matthew begin studying sleep? He learned insufficient sleep is linked to ALL of the top killers in civilized countries. The average adult only sleeps 6 hours and 31 minutes. The disease and suffering that is present because of lack of sleep has become his motivator to instill change. So how much sleep do we need? If you are not getting at least 7-9 hours of sleep a day, you are not acting at optimal performance. Most who think they can operate at full capacity with 6 hours of sleep have become numb to the state they live in. They have forgotten, or perhaps have never known, what their optimal performance looks and feels like.

Insufficient sleep is shown to lead to disease, cancer, mutating your DNA, and Alzheimer’s. Not only does lack of sleep hurt you in the long-term, it also has many short-term effects as well. When you are sleep deprived your brain is 40% less able to retain information. Some have legitimate sleep disorders, however 90-95% of people can change their sleep habits.

How can we help change our quality of sleep? Turn off the technology at night. Lights from the T.V., iPad, phone, etc. sends all the wrong signals to your brain. Melatonin does not get released at the time it should get released. Any kind of light is problematic within the last hour or so of when you should be getting ready for bed. Light, sleep procrastination and anticipatory anxiety are the three biggest problems related to too much technology before bed.

Aiding sleep with drugs or alcohol is a common misnomer. When you sleep with the aid of alcohol or sleeping pills they inhibit your ability to hit your REM cycle. The same is true for marijuana. These are methods of sedation, not actual sleep. Studies show that sleeping pills are associated with death and cancer. More specifically, you are 3-4 times more likely to die across a 2 ½ year period when taking sleeping pills, than those who do not taking sleeping pills. Michael and Matthew end the conversation breaking apart start times of schools and how crucial starting an hour or two later is to a student and their quality of learning.

Direct download: 658.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Philip Maymin is an Associate Professor of Analytics and Finance at the University of Bridgeport Trefz School of Business. He is the managing editor of Algorithmic Finance and the co-editor-in-chief of the Journal of Sports Analytics. He has been an analytics consultant with several NBA teams and is the Chief Analytics Officer for Vantage Sports.

Philip brings the perspective of “Moneyball” to basketball. The Celtics, for example, have done a great job of putting players in positions that play to their strengths. They do this by analyzing the data of their players better than most other teams. High frequency data is in sports now, not just in trading. There are cameras in every professional basketball arena that produce play by play data showing summary statistics that coaching staff and in some instances, the public, can see.

Teams are producing models for how each player moves in combination with the other players on the court. The two most basic questions you ask of a player is “What does he do really well?” And “What does he do often?” Sometimes what players do often, doesn’t correlate to what they do well. Philip also discusses outlier players like Marcus Smart. He doesn’t have amazing scoring stats, blocking stats or anything else particularly extraordinary, yet when he is on the court, his team has a dramatically higher chance of winning.

How could we start going down the path of using data to create and put a team together? The myth is that GM’s are brilliant and have foresight on who to draft. If that were the case wouldn’t they be making dramatically more money? Also, how are they making decisions? GM’s mostly rely on their gut. Philip believes that EVERYTHING should be put in a system. If you take scouts opinions, analytics, GM’s opinions, etc. and put it all in a soup then you are just trading off your gut. You have essentially de-systematized the system.

Direct download: 657.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Trend following has more in common with Jeff Bezos, blackjack or horseracing than Elliot Wave or Gann. Michael uses a dating example to show the edge gained in dating when approaching total strangers and the correlation to trading random markets. If you play the system right and stick with it, odds are, you will come out on top. Is this the way to play the game? It doesn’t sound romantic, but the playing field is messy whether it be in seduction, black jack or venture capital – you have to play it different.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Asymmetric distribution
  • How to play the dating game
  • Race track betting
  • Blackjack
  • Outside the box trading
Direct download: 656.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Roy Baumeister is a social psychologist known for his work on the self, social rejection, belongingness, sexuality, sex differences, self-control, self-esteem, self-defeating behaviors, motivation, aggression, consciousness, and free will. Roy has also authored over 20 books throughout his career. He likes to start his research with the premise that he doesn’t know the right answer–trying to have an open mind and clean slate.

Roy started his career studying the idea of self-control. He looked at some of the major crutches people deal with–dieting, quitting smoking, controlling emotions. Roy found that everyone has a limited amount of energy and using that energy toward will power had a limited source of regulation. When people used their energy toward gaining self control in one area, they lost it in another. One way Roy found to boost energy and restore self control in patients was to give a patient glucose. It seemed to restore self-control in the patient, giving them a boost of energy.

Roy also has studied differences in people with high self-esteem as opposed to those with lower self-esteem. Improving self esteem didn’t seem to help make life better or lead to later success but improving self control did. Working on self control was shown to be more important for success than IQ or self esteem. Asian countries, for example, have much more discipline built into their culture than American culture. Roy’s studies have shown that Asians therefore require a lower IQ to be successful because their self control overpowers other inhibitors.

Michael and Roy finish their conversation talking sex. Is it more nature or nurture? Roy has found that female sexuality is more cultural and male sexuality is more nature. Do sex norms change based on female to male ratios? Yes. When you look at populations where there is an un-equal amount of men to women and visa versa the desire for one sex to acquire the attention of the other sex is shifted. Standards are lowered/heightened. Michael includes a 30 minute bonus presentation from Roy expanding on the topics discussed on today’s podcast.

Direct download: 655.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Today’s podcast features chapters 3, 10 and the Epilogue from Michael’s newest edition of Trend Following taken from his audio book.

Principles and lessons woven throughout Trend Following are timeless and endure through whatever current event may be rolling through the news.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Absolute Returns

Volatility versus Risk

Drawdowns

Correlation

Zero Sum

George Soros

Berkshire Hathaway

Risk, Reward, and Uncertainty

Five Questions

Your Trading System

Frequently Asked Questions

Direct download: 654.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Alexander Elder has written some of the most popular trading books of the last 30 years. He grew up in Estonia among a successful family of doctors. Alexander followed in his family’s footsteps, becoming a doctor and making his way on a cargo ship. He ran from his ship to a U.S. Embassy, escaping from his country. His decision to jump ship was literally the best decision of his life. He is author of Trading for a Living, considered a modern classic among traders, an international best-seller, translated into 16 languages, and recently newly revised and released under the title, The New Trading for a Living. This is his second appearance on the show.

How is Alexander’s trading different? Alexander is motivated by creating quality. He has a sense and intuition for it. Someone who is losing money looks at their situation “like a rabbit running from a snake.” Alexander thinks differently. He trades by way of systems. He has his orders set for the day, goes skiing, then comes back to the computer to watch the last hour of trading to see if he needs to make any adjustments. He learns from his mistakes and makes sure his systems are the highest quality they can be.

What was the pivotal moment that broke Alexander into the trading direction he is in? There was not one moment, but many losing ones. He hates to lose. He overcame his losing over time with persistence and stubbornness. He studied his systems and trades vigorously until he had a winning system.

Another motivation? Knowing that failure was not an option. Alexander grew up in a successful family with money – If he failed in his home country, he would have been taken care of. However, now that he was in the United States, he knew if he failed he would be on the street. There would be nobody to take care of him. Do you hit rock bottom and paddle up? Or do you stay there and become a bum? Alexander chose to paddle up.

Direct download: 653.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:16am EST

Entrepreneurship is a niche group that makes up a small number of the population. Being an entrepreneur is something visceral that starts deep down in a person. Michael reads from three pieces, adding commentary throughout, to further drive his point: “The Top Five Reasons to be a Jack of All trades” by Tim Ferriss, “Why Entrepreneur’s Start Companies Rather Than Join Them” by Steve Blank, and “Asymmetric Information in Entrepreneurship” by Deepak Hegde.

Entrepreneurs

Start up companies

Trading as an entrepreneur

Direct download: 652.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

David Burkus is author of “Friend of a Friend: Understanding the Hidden Networks That Can Transform Your Life and Your Career.” David has delivered keynotes to leaders of Fortune 500 companies and future leaders of the United States Naval Academy. His TED talk has been viewed almost 2 million times and he is a regular contributor to Harvard Business Review. What if the advice we have all heard about networking is wrong? David outlines the right way to network in the modern age.

How do you meet people? How do you meet the right people? Once you meet those people, what do you do with the relationship? Maybe you haven’t talked to someone for a few years but you could still call him or her up and have a personal talk with them. This is an example of one of the most useful networking ties, known as a “dormant tie.” David uses UFC founders, Dana White and Lorenzo Lamas, as an example. They went to high school together, hadn’t talked for years, both had a passion for fighting, but lived in different spheres of the fighting community. After reconnecting at a high school get together they realized they had some aligning career aspirations. They ended up buying the UFC and made it the fastest growing sport in history.

When you start taking chances on meeting people and putting yourself out there, that is when your network really expands. David shares another example of a movie producer who got his foot in the door by getting creative, taking some risks, and reaching out to the right people for conversations. Who do you know? Who do your friends know? Where do you know them from? These are basic questions that can get the ball rolling when trying to expand your network.

Knowing a ton of people is not necessary to be successful, you just need to know the right people to give yourself credibility. Shared activities and hobbies are ways to draw in a set of diverse people to build deep relationships. Networking events have become a thing of the past (thank goodness).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Curiosity conversations
  • LinkedIn
  • Network science
  • Self observation
  • Dormant ties
  • Robust networks
  • Network science
  • The majority illusion
  • The spread of Facebook
Direct download: 651.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Inspired by this post from Seth Godin… Michael expands it out on today’s podcast: “What is and what might be: They have much less in common than you might expect. The key step in creating a better future is insisting that it not be based on the assumptions, grievances and dead ends of the past. The future won’t be perfect. We won’t be perfect. But we can be kind. We can listen. We can give opportunity the benefit of the doubt. The future won’t always work. We won’t always succeed. But we can be alert and seek out the possible instead of the predicted. The future won’t always be fair. But we can try. We can care. We can choose to connect. It can be better if we let it.”

Seth Godin’s work centers around business, self help, and thinking clearer. Michael expands on Seth’s blog post by sharing an email he recently received from a disgruntled man who does not appreciate where Michael now lives – Vietnam. Michael’s main point? Assumptions, grievances and dead ends of the past should not be pushed on other people. You have a choice: Use past and present experiences to make yourself better and make your life better? Or let those experiences cripple you?

Embracing the moment of now is where the mind wants to be. Worrying about the past or future brings the mind down. Michael ends with another blog post from Seth Godin and an example of a client who is frustrated with his two months of trend following trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Travel

Experiencing life outside the U.S.

Embracing opportunity

Mindfulness

Direct download: 650.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

From IMDB: “An unsettling and eye-opening Wall Street horror story about Chinese companies, the American stock market, and the opportunistic greed behind the biggest heist you’ve never heard of.” That’s the opening description for a new documentary titled “The China Hustle” (2017).

Today, Michael talks with Director Jed Rothstein about the backstory for his film and the complexity of fairly describing a modern China. Whether you know something about China or not–this conversation will stimulate your China understanding.

Academy Award-nominated and Emmy-winning filmmaker Jed Rothstein specializes in hard-to-get stories from around the world that help people understand one another better. Whether seeking out heavy metal musicians who become Arab-Spring revolutionaries (PBS’s Before the Spring After the Fall); pioneering doctors (HBO’s Coma and Pandemic); Al Qaeda terrorists (The Oscar-nominated HBO documentary Killing in the Name); defenders of free speech (The 2009 Sundance film Shouting Fire); journalists on the front lines (Independent Lens’ Democracy on Deadline)–Rothstein works with people to help them tell their own stories in their own words. His films and television programs have played in festivals around the world, enjoyed special screenings at the United Nations, and been broadcast on HBO, PBS, National Geographic, Amazon Prime, The Discovery Channel, IFC, Channel 4, the BBC, CNN and elsewhere.

Direct download: 649.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Michael reaches back in time to explore a mega episode with three of his favorite guests: Salem Abraham, Walter Williams and Emanuel Derman.

Salem Andrew Abraham (born 1966) is an American investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. He is the president and founder of Abraham Trading Company, a futures investment firm based in Canadian, Texas.

Walter Edward Williams (born March 31, 1936) is an American economist, commentator, and academic. He is the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University, as well as a syndicated columnist and author known for his classical liberal and libertarian conservative views.

Emanuel Derman (born 1945) is a South African-born academic, businessman and writer. He is best known as a quantitative analyst, and author of the book My Life as a Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance.

Staying within the title of this episode: three clear thinkers.

Direct download: 648.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Brennan Dunn is an expert on optimizing websites, improving user experience and scaling up sales through automation. He knows how to persuade funnel customers to create a peak-buying strategy.

Reading dialogue from Plato has been a big influence on Brennan and his career. Plato had a way of talking to people on an individual basis. Brennan took the observation and has built his business model around just that – personalization. He figures out what level of awareness a customer may have on the subject he is selling and curates a selling strategy off that knowledge. Brennan calls this life cycle marketing. He segregates emails based on how long people have been on his email list, what your interests are, and different skill levels. People buy more often when they feel an offer has been completely catered to them.

How does Brennan write such effective copy? He starts with someone’s pain and shows them he knows where they are in life, where they want to be, and what their dreams are. Nobody cares much about what the product is, they care about how it will help them get to their dream. Copywriting is more about curating that creating.

What is the best way to get your message or product out to people? What is the most effective platform of communication today? Email. Brennan has launched products through Twitter as opposed to email and the results are nowhere near the same. Email reaches a greater number of people and is not owned by one company – it is a decentralized platform. Michael and Brennan end the conversation talking website development and the importance of usability and simplicity in a website.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Life cycle marketing
Persuasion
Copywriting
Socrates
Niche marketing

Direct download: 647.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Predictive technical analysis is chart/pattern reading. Trend following, on the other hand, is reactive technical analysis – a diversified portfolio perspective of markets using momentum indicators. You never know what will happen in one market so you use diversification to hedge your bets. Predictive technical analysis has no evidence of success. Reactive technical analysis has decades of proof behind it. How do you find this proof? Seek out the track records of traders using trend following. You can see trend followers making and losing money over long periods of time.

Michael reads a review from a critic who is a fan of predictive technical analysis. Michael uses this review to further make his point – there is no chart that can be studied long enough that will tell you which way a market will move. Trading in this way is a recipe for failure. As Ed Seykota famously said, “Everyone gets what they want out of the markets.” When you trade as though you can predict the future, you will most certainly get what you want from the markets – failure.

Direct download: 646.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Tarra Mitchell’s new book is “The Yoga of Leadership: A Practical Guide to Health, Happiness, And Inspiring Total Team Engagement.” Her work digs deep into the psychological benefits of practicing yoga and the benefits it provides for overall life wellness.

Tarra made a pivot in her career after the 2008 financial crisis. She was working to raise money for a fund of funds and decided she wanted to set off on her own – become an entrepreneur. Her new business was set to get off the ground just as the 2008 crisis was unfolding – tanking her new business opportunity. Tarra then set off on different ventures, eventually leading her to yoga. Yoga quickly became a part of her weekly routine. She decided to go through yoga teacher training, not to become a teacher, but rather to learn more about the practice. Through that experience, she realized she wanted to give back to the world by bringing the benefits of yoga into the finance industry.

Stress, loneliness, happiness, depression – it’s all contagious. Tarra saw yoga as a great way to counter some of the negativity in everyday life. Breathing and moving on a yoga mat settles the nervous system and helps quiet the mind. Yoga also helps bring students to an ongoing place of greater consciousness. Waking up each morning and doing an assessment of what’s needed for the day helps give the mind balance and power over the senses. With Tarra’s previous ties to the finance world, she quickly saw how valuable it could be to the industry.

Tarra not only see’s yoga as a way to settle the mind, but also as a healing agent. Too often, people turn to drugs and alcohol as coping mechanisms. They turn to pills for anxiety, depression, or other ailments rather than trying to develop real skills to help. Tarra teaches her students how to strengthen the mind through practice and gives students a sense of community.

Direct download: 645.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

When everything is going great in the market, that’s when it is time to make sure that you have a plan for when it all goes downhill. Michael reads a piece from Ben Hunt titled, “The Icarus Moment,” adding commentary throughout. Michael and Ben may have differing views on trading styles, but philosophically they are aligned.

Everyone, on some level, is stuck on a wheel. People are literally baring their souls on a daily basis. Do you want to hear everyone’s daily fears? Their daily drama? Who we are and what we do has become completely separated. What can we do about all this? Start asking the “why.” Trust your biases. Wisdom comes from the ability to think critically. Think of the why, and not just the what.

Michael ends the podcast with a bonus interview with Anders Ericsson author of “Peak: Secrets from the New Science of Expertise.” Ericsson is a psychologist and Conradi Eminent Scholar and Professor of Psychology at Florida State University. He is an internationally recognized researcher in the psychological nature of expertise and human performance. He studies cognitive ability, personality, interests, and other factors that help researchers understand and predict deliberate practice and expert performance.

Direct download: 644.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Robert Kurson is the author of “Rocket Men: The Daring Odyssey of Apollo 8 and the Astronauts Who Made Man’s First Journey to the Moon.”

How did Robert get hooked on space exploration? He was born in 1963, just five years before the Apollo 8 mission. Some of his first memories were watching rockets take off. He realized he knew a lot of Apollo 11 and 13 but not much about Apollo 8. As he researched the mission he quickly learned that NASA, astronauts, and experts in the field had all talked about this mission being the most astonishing and important of all Apollo missions. Why? Apollo 8 became the first manned spacecraft to leave Earth’s orbit, reach the Earth’s Moon, orbit it and return safely to Earth. The three astronaut crew consisted of Commander Frank Borman, Command Module Pilot James Lovell, and Lunar Module Pilot William Anders.

The U.S. had historically always been behind in the race to space. With Russia continuously one step ahead, Apollo 8 gave us the advantage of having the first crew to reach the moon and paved the way for Apollo 11 to successfully put the first man on the moon.

Direct download: 643.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Where do you pull your inspiration from? Michael opens the podcast quoting Nassim Taleb addressing bullies: Do you throw punches for the sake of throwing punches? No, you throw punches when it will set a standard for others not to mess with you. Michael also pulls inspiration from the 1980’s Dunbar High School basketball team. The 1981–1982 team finished its season undefeated and the 1982–1983 team continued the tradition with a 31–0 record and a #1 national ranking. They produced three first round NBA basketball draft picks. That team has become legendary.

Inspiration can be pulled from extraordinary athletes, writers, singers, and even architecture. Michael recently visited Singapore for a presentation. He has been there many times and describes it as “San Diego on steroids.” He describes the architecture and beauty of the city as awe-inspiring.

Michael ties the podcast together talking trend following and what inspires him about this style of trading compared to fundamental trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bullies
  • Overcoming obstacles
  • Desert island trading
  • Value investing
  • Toxic masculinity
  • Noise elimination
  • EMT
Direct download: 642.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Josef Marc is an author, entrepreneur, and CEO of Publica developing in the publishing world via blockchain. Publishing companies are some of the most inefficient businesses around today. Josef not only has cultivated a strategy to work around many of the hang-ups created by working with publishers, but has re-imagined the process altogether.

We have reached an era where people no longer care who the publisher is. Buyers can do their own research, read reviews and decide if they want to buy. How does blockchain technology help with this process? During an author’s campaign period, excitement can be generated through blockchain. Searching the content of books is easier through blockchain and there is a deeper sense of engagement throughout the community. Blockchain developments not only supply a platform for an author to get their name out, but it also creates a unique vehicle for payment. Josef also explains how blockchain can help with the re-sale of books and track when, what and who is buying a book or product.

For years Amazon has had a monopoly on book sales. Amazon relies on customer reviews to promote books and get others to buy. There is one small problem with this process – it is almost impossible to track the legitimacy of these customer reviews. How are reviews more accountable through blockchain? Everything is tracked and users have “tokenized” accountability.

Direct download: 641.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Alison Gopnik is an American professor of psychology and affiliate professor of philosophy at the University of California, Berkeley. She is known for her work in the areas of cognitive and language development, specializing in the effect of language on thought, the development of a theory of mind, and causal learning. Her primary study is looking at how we learn and grow from the earliest years of our lives.

How did Alison get started down this path? She is the eldest of 6 children brought up in a bohemian style family. Being the oldest of 6 she had a deep understanding of children at a young age. She saw relationships between play and learning in babies first hand and was intrigued early on.

Alison also looks at the relationship between how long a baby is a baby before adulthood and how that relates to the rest of their life that follows. Humans generally have twice the amount of childhood than any of our animal relatives. If we have these extended periods of learning, compared to other mammals, what are human babies doing in that time? What are the other animal babies doing in that time? How does this time shape the rest of our lives in comparison?

Why is Alison so passionate about her work? She works with children everyday. She observes, plays and sees first hand how important they are. Other fields of science, particularly the artificial intelligence community, is beginning to take notice of her work. They are starting to look at children and cognitive development to help advance their programming. Introducing play and adaptation to their systems is one thing scientists have taken away from observing children. The more you play around and experiment in your childhood, the more you are able to adapt and adjust to the unknown environments. How do you go about taking on new challenges? Exploring and having fun with things often helps to solve problems quicker.

What are some lessons we are learning about kids and technology? Will this generation’s technology ruin the world? Michael and Alison end the podcast discussing the ever changing technological advances and what impacts it may or may not have on the world and the children living on it.

Direct download: 640.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Martin “Marty” Bergin and James Dailey are on the podcast today. Bergin is the President and owner of DUNN Capital Management. He began working with DUNN in 1997 and took over the day-to-day operations of the firm in 2007. He became owner in 2015 (Bill Dunn remains Chairman). James Dailey became CEO of Dunn Capital in March 2016. DUNN has a track record that spans over 40 years.

Today’s podcast was recorded the week after the February 2018 volatility. Inevitably, when there is volatility in markets, machines are blamed. DUNN Capital is a trend following trading firm who uses computers for everything they do. They know fintech well. That said, there is a difference between DUNN Capital and “the machine” traders.

DUNN Capital trades from a higher volatility perspective and it has worked out well for them. They don’t charge management fees, but rather are completely incentive fee based. Further, at DUNN Capital they don’t reduce volatility for the sake of possibly reducing bad events–they still want strong profits and that is the only way they make money. Unfortunately, investors always remember drawdowns and they do try to minimize those without compromising their core system.

Finally, and this a surprise for many, DUNN Capital’s office is quiet and not very exciting. Trend following after all is about discipline and blocking out all of the media noise and information. DUNN’s investors get that. DUNN is managing money for the long term, not short term. Their trend following is geared toward data and everything in their research shows that long term trend following trading is their best opportunity.

Direct download: 639.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Michael Covel walks the line on trend following.

Direct download: 638.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Oliver Hart is the 6th Nobel Prize winner to appear on Trend Following Radio. He is a British-born American economist, and currently the Andrew E. Furer Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2016 for his work on contract theory.

Oliver is an expert on contract theory, theory of the firm, corporate finance, law and economics. He studies how ownership roles, structure and contractual arrangements are used in the governance and boundaries of corporations. How did he get his start? After receiving his PhD from Princeton in 1974, he began studying general equilibrium under uncertainty – particularly the behavior of firms when under uncertainty. Summer of 1983 was when his career path shifted – specifically to contracts. He became less interested in what firms should do, and more interested in how firms align with what shareholders want them to do.

Following the 2008 financial crisis, Oliver believed it was dangerous to start intervening in such a fragile economy. Yes, it was an unprecedented crisis but, Oliver believes it was totally overblown. No physical or human assets were disappearing and we had mechanisms such as bankruptcy to fall back on. What was the reasoning behind some banks beings saved and others not? Wall Street was bailed out but mainstream was not? Oliver looked at the crisis as arbitrary and rigged. Michael and Oliver wrap the podcast up discussing the differences in block chain and bitcoin and end the podcast with a 6 minute bonus Q&A.

Direct download: 637.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

What drives, distracts or motivates you? There has never been more availability to information than today. It is being pumped out every second of everyday. Is it useful?

Michael pulls a few quotes from a Farnam Street blog post and Nassim Taleb who further his point; we are not free, we are all part of the matrix, information is transforming us from nice people to neurotic people, and data that is not well discussed is toxic. Twitter, Facebook, CNBC, Bloomberg, and Yahoo Finance (among many others) are brainwashing the public. Shane Parish (from Farnam Street) also encourages people to think about what the information they are consuming means to them. Will it be relevant to them in a week, month, or year? He breaks the value of information down into two parts: Will the information stand the test of time? Does the information have detail?

The highest achievers have figured out how to sort through the chaos. They choose not to participate in the noise and tune everything out that is not essential. They are busy getting things done, rather than watching what everyone else is doing.

 

Direct download: 636.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Martin Ford is a futurist and author focused on the impact artificial intelligence is having on society and the economy. He is also the founder of a Silicon Valley based software development company and recently started Genesis Systems, focused on creating sustainable water by way of atmospheric water retention systems. He has over 25 years of experience in software development and systems. His newest book is “Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future.”

What was the trigger that caused Martin to go down the path of studying artificial intelligence? He was running a small software company from the mid 90’s to the 2000’s. He saw first hand in that short span of time how rapid technology was shifting jobs. Once his interest was sparked, he quickly began looking beyond just the loss of jobs and thinking of the economical ripple effect of jobs disappearing.

How do we disrupt the economical and social impact of severe unemployment? Martin proposes a “basic income”. Basic income would be enough money for the typical individual to get by on and survive, but not thrive. Controversial? Yes. Michael and Martin end the podcast discussing the ever looming threat of sustainable water and Martin’s newest venture, Genesis Systems.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Loss of jobs to robots
  • Basic income
  • Rapid advancements in technology
  • Poverty traps
  • Dignity and work
  • Technology in medicine
  • Population and pollution
  • Sustainable water
Direct download: 635.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Cognitive dissonance, especially in politics, is running rampant. People regularly contradict themselves just to be right. Jordan Peterson is a psychology professor in Canada who has become popular due to his opposing views and his views on political correctness. Michael walks through an interview with Peterson and a sister article breaking apart that same interview and points out the key issues.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Ad hominem
  • Political correctness
  • Politics
  • Gender equality
  • Gender pronouns
  • The lessons for life from this are profound
Direct download: 634.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

William Damon is a Professor of Education at the Stanford Graduate School of Education, Director of the Stanford Center on Adolescence, and senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He is one of the world’s top researchers on development of purpose in life and author of the widely influential book “The Path to Purpose.” In January 2018 he was named one of the 50 most influential psychologists. This conversation lets listeners to rethink their purpose and take inventory on their day to day life.

How does one get closer to happiness? Purpose is what drives individuals through life. It creates positive aspirations. People who think beyond the day to day and move toward goals tend to have a more fulfilled, happier life. Bill’s work help’s youth find that purpose as well as help elderly keep theirs. He has seen first hand how purpose motivates and makes people obsessed with life.

What is the typical trigger for someone to start searching for their purpose? Is there always a particular starting point? Everyone has their own journey, however there are usually patterns young people follow while finding their purpose. Often they have observed a person that has had influence, and they want to emulate them–whether that be a parent, teacher, boss, coach, etc. However, these influences can also help to cause doubts–which may not be a bad thing. It’s a natural human tendency to get charged up and pursue dreams with more zest when others say it is impossible. It took about four years for Bill to get recognition he was going down the career right path. Success is not overnight.

Prospective thinking is the new “a-ha” revelation that is coming out in developmental psychology. It’s based on being able to shape your own future regardless of your past. Michael and Bill end the conversation talking common decency, universal morals and values.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Purpose
  • Prestige of colleges
  • Celebrity status misconceptions
  • Developmental psychology
  • Influences of childhood
  • Prospective thinking
  • Basic morals and values
  • Public schools and curriculum being used
Direct download: 633.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

February 2018 has marked the return of volatility in the stock market. With that volatility comes a slew of news propaganda – listening to CNBC and Bloomberg you would think the world is ending. Every news outlet has their own story on why markets are spinning. Think through what is going on. Go back and look at other volatile times. What’s the truth? Markets are just acting how they are going to act. Volatility is normal. It is to be expected.

Adding to Michael’s perspective, he reads a blog post by Cliff Asness of AQR Capital. Cliff further elaborates on “machine haters” and news spinning during volatile times. Michael ends reading feedback from a listener on political correctness and keeping his message true and straight forward.

Direct download: 632.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Chris Ducker is a British businessman, the founder and CEO of Virtual Staff Finder and the Live2Sell Group of Companies. Chris’s new book is, “Rise of the Youpreneur: The Definitive Guide to Becoming the Go-To Leader in Your Industry and Building a Future-Proof Business.” His book branches out to all audiences – regardless of where someone might be in their journey of building a company or brand.

What is a youpreneur? Chris realized about five years ago that people were personally signing up to do business with him. Not the brand name or the staff he employs, but him. A youpreneur builds a business based around them, the individual, but not reliant on them. Chris has created a movement centered on this philosophy. As you build a business around “you” all sorts of other opportunities start to present themselves. He encourages listeners to think about, “What sets YOU apart?” From there you can cultivate a business specific to you.

Centering a business around your reputation puts you in top control of a company or product you built. Why waste all that work by building your company on rented land. Chris stresses the need to grow your platform on your own domain. Don’t rely on Facebook or Instagram to look out for your best interests. Once you have your domain, what is the best way to reach your audience? By the year 2020, according to Google, 90% of content consumed by users will be by video or audio. Michael and Chris end on tips and tricks on creating a successful podcast, or going on a podcast as a guest.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Building your business on your own domain
  • The ripple effect
  • Email campaigns
  • Starting a podcast
Direct download: 631.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

David Ricardo would be just as successful today trading as he was trading 100’s of years ago. He understood, from a trend following perspective, that there is no value in prediction. When trading, you take an entry signal, get into the market, and ride the trend. It is impossible to know with certainty where the market will go, so you trade with the market rather than against it. Some think they have a grasp on bitcoin, but there is no way to understand the “why” behind it or any other market.

You don’t have to be an expert to trade bitcoin, gold, coffee, or cocoa – just have rules in place and start trading. Small losses will happen but they are balanced: home runs – small losses = extreme gains. Do the homework, put rules together and go.

Still uneasy about diving into trend following? Check out performance from trend following traders such as Dunn Capital and Winton Capital. Much can be learned from information in public trend following track records.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Time series momentum
  • Cross sectional momentum
  • Definition of managed futures
  • Diversification
  • Trend following diversification
  • Drawdowns
Direct download: 630.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Annie Duke’s new book is, “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts.” She has taken her poker expertise and graduate level degree of psychology and digested it into a book we all can relate to our lives. She is a poker player, author, decision making expert, and cognitive scientist. Her understanding of how luck, skill and uncertainty all play a role in life is fascinating.

The foundation of decision making crosses over to all genres. She touches on football play calling, crypto currency, and everything in between. In Annie’s book she breaks down “the worst football play in Super Bowl history”, relating to Pete Carol. She proves that it was actually the right call in terms of probabilities and mathematics, Carroll was just unlucky. Carroll is on record admitting that it was the worst result of a call in Super Bowl history, but not the worst call.

Under a stressful situation, like the Super Bowl, would you be able to make the right call? How good are you about checking your beliefs and keeping your bets in line? Are your decisions and outcomes lucky? Smart? Skilled? Very few outcomes are solely skill or solely luck. Phil Ivey, arguably the best poker player in the world, sorts out what was luck and what was skill after every win or loss he may have in a poker tournament.

Learning occurs best when there are lots of decisions to be made in a compressed amount of time paired with lots of feedback to those decisions. Annie first studied this in young children learning to listen, speak, and digest words and quickly saw this study directly relate to the poker table. How do you learn when there is a lot of noisy feedback? Having limited resources, how do you use those resources to make educated bets?

Life is a series of bets that compound on themselves. Annie makes the point that, “I’m not sure” is the best answer in many situations – and there is nothing wrong with that. Coming from a place of uncertainty helps to make more rational decisions. When that decision doesn’t turn out well, you can then analyze how you can improve that action going forward.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Crypto currency bubble
  • Decision making
  • Game theory
  • Decision making groups
  • Noisy feedback
  • Decisions in uncertainty
Direct download: 629.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Do you buy and hold Bitcoin? For those who have held on through the turbulence it has turned out well–so far. Michael reads a lively blog post from a few years back regarding the right way to trade, the wrong way to trade and all the emotions people feel in-between. Michael breaks the post apart with commentary.

Direct download: 628.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Charles Faulkner is back on the podcast today. Faulkner is an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in “The New Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager. Faulkner has had one of the most popular podcasts on Trend Following Radio. His new work is centered on deciphering the complicated from the complex.

Warren Buffett recently said, “In terms of crypto currencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending. When it happens or how or anything else, I don’t know.” What does Faulkner make of Buffett’s prediction?

With all this new technology and language most will turn to others for advice. Unfortunately, there are a lot of fortune tellers pushing agendas. The idea of forecasting is to make people move. It is a way of getting people into action and doing things they would never do if they knew the truth. “Why can’t the magical thinkers be accurate?” Charles points out that unfortunately fortune tellers will be right some of the time and “reasoning by resemblance” is a common fallback trap for people.

How should you go about navigating this complexity? Complex and complicated are two very different things and the ability to identify what situation you are in requires a high level of thinking. Complicated situations or problems can be solved by asking a knowledgeable person for advice, reading a book, watching a YouTube video, etc. Complex scenarios take trial and error.

Still not sure if something is complicated or complex? Uncertainty is one quality of complex systems. It has non-linear causes and effects. Some little action can have huge ramifications. In the same way, it takes huge amounts of effort and money to change complex situations, for example: healthcare, opioids epidemic, etc. People frequently think that if they just have more information, different information or a smarter “guy” that they would be better off. Unfortunately, when you are in a complex situation, standard rules don’t apply.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Forecasting
  • The rise of magical thinking
  • Reasoning by resemblance
  • Network theory
  • Power laws
  • Crypto currency
  • Complicated vs. Complex vs. Chaos
Direct download: 627.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Michael reaches back and brings on three authors from the archives with three great books: Fascinate, Simple Rules and Visual Intelligence.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Sally Hogshead on Fascination
  • Kathleen Eisenhardt on Simple Rules
  • Amy Herman on Visual Intelligence
Direct download: 626.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Cognitive dissonance is everywhere. Michael quotes from an article by Alwyn Lau titled “Quick to Attack and Condemn: Why We do It.” Trumps presidency has produced arguably the greatest case of cognitive dissonance in history.

Many cognitive dissonance with the markets. What is the best way to counter cognitive dissonance? Take a minute, stop, and look for an alternative explanation. Stop hallucinating and start studying. Read perspectives from both sides and educate yourself.

Staying attached to news and breaking headlines only feeds the problem. Are you in cognitive dissonance about markets? Politics? Have you given yourself a back test?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive dissonance
  • Donald Trump
  • Fact checking
  • Bitcoin
  • Breaking news
Direct download: 625.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

“The Edge… there is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over.” –Hunter S. Thompson

Taking the lead from Thompson...Michael goes in search of the edge.

Direct download: 624.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Ben Hardy started blogging in May of 2015 and in just under three years has gained over 300,000 email subscribers and become the most followed writer on Medium.com. Ben is also just a few months away from his PHD in organizational psychology at age 29. His three foster children, as well as personal experiences, inspired his new book, “Willpower Doesn’t Work: Discover the Hidden Keys to Success.”

Ben sees willpower as a fight against the natural environment and consequentially, a losing battle. Getting out of typical environments helps to see things from the outside and remove yourself from the echo chamber of mass society. Experiencing emotion, both good and bad, is also important. Finding a sacred space that triggers good emotions is important to mix into daily routine – a place to go everyday that re-centers you, and you look forward to going.

How does Ben have time to write new articles, with great content, and continue growing his following? We live in an information world and having the right writing skills can help grow a business immensely. He is a big proponent of re-purposing evergreen material. Also, learning how to structure content and write headlines are some of the quickest ways to see boosts in traffic. Lastly, publishing your content on the right platforms is key. The three websites Ben believes provide the best opportunity for you to see massive growth are all covered in this great conversation.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Western and eastern philosophy
  • Getting out of your environment
  • Sacred space
  • Morning routines
  • Squeeze page
Direct download: 623.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

The kick in the ass motivational screed for 2018. Enjoy!

Direct download: 622.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:23am EST

George Anders is a New York Times best selling author and journalist who has written for national publications spanning over 30 years. He shared a Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting in 1997, while at The Wall Street Journal. Michael is a huge fan of George’s classic, “Merchants of Debt” published in 1992. His most recent work is “You Can Do Anything: The Surprising Power of ‘Useless’ Liberal Arts Education.”

“You Can Do Anything” shows how humanizing technology has become one of the fastest growing jobs. 6% of technology jobs are programmer based with the other 94% being human relations based. Social media, branding, psychology, etc.–they have nothing to do with coding but are just as essential to running a successful technology based company. George gives one example of an exceptional sales person he met who happened to be an English major. He sat beside her and witnessed first hand why she was so exceptional at selling – it was how she talked to people and fostered relationships with customers over the phone. You don’t need a business degree to sell. You just need an intuitive social way of talking with people and making your customer feel comfortable. Building a successful company takes a combination of tech savvy and psychology.

Having the confidence and audacity to take a risk and reach out to some of the highest achievers in a field of your interest could be your greatest chance at a dream job. To be the best you learn from the best and you won’t get very far if you are shy about it. George also stresses that no matter what your major was in college (or if you even went to college), it is important to know that you can go in any direction with a career path. Michael and George end the podcast talking about climbing Mt. Fuji. George describes the gorgeous landscape, scenery, and a mistake he made that anyone following in his footsteps should avoid.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Confidence in business
  • Journalism
  • Targeted marketing
  • Mark Zuckerberg
  • Alumni connections
  • Audacity
  • Persuasion
  • E-books
  • The explorers spirit
Direct download: 621.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Happy new year and please enjoy my all day 11-hour compilation covering 3 of my favorite guests. A timeless reminder to start 2018 the right way! And if you don't want to listen all the way through then enjoy my opening intro rant!

Direct download: 620.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00am EST

Ozan Varol is a rocket scientist, author and award-winning law professor. His contrarian view show throughout his writings and interviews. He focuses primarily on showing how extraordinary thinking produces extraordinary results. Ozan’s newest books are The Democratic Coup d’État and Comparative Constitutional Law: A Global and Interdisciplinary Approach.

Michael and Ozan Varol take a winding path through modern life across politics, geography and the proper way to argue.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Extraordinary thinking
  • The Democratic Coup d’État
  • Contrary thinking
Direct download: 619.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:30pm EST

A Merry Christmas podcast designed to challenge traditional thinking. Hint: Watch out for the biases and do the work.

Direct download: 618.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Ken Blanchard is an author and management expert. His writing career spans over 60 books with his most successful being “The One Minute Manager” selling over 13 million copies. “The One Minute Manager” was first self published by Ken and his co-author and released in 1982. It quickly sold over 20,000 copies with no publicity, giving them a leg up when they were ready to negotiate publishing deals. Ken’s students span all backgrounds from large companies to entrepreneurs. His books have been translated into 40+ languages and the lessons and training he provides translates to all ages in all countries.

Where did it all start for Ken? Ken’s dad was an admiral in the Navy. He gave up a career on Wall Street to join the Navy and fight on the front lines of WWII. He taught Ken invaluable leadership qualities that he passes on throughout his books and in his training. What was one of his biggest lessons? You are only as good as the men around you.

Ken teaches three key lessons in one minute managing: one minute goal setting, one minute praising, and one minute reprimand. He believes good leaders are a combination of nature and nurture and proper training can go a long way in building successful relationships–which build successful companies. What are you doing to grow intellectually, physically, spiritually, and in your relationships? Competing with the best requires constant learning.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Seagull managing
  • Assumed constraint
  • Self leadership
  • Power of constant learning
  • Vulnerability in leadership
Direct download: 617.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Cryptocurrency is sweeping the world. From taxi drivers to Instagram bikini models – everyone is talking about getting rich off it. Millions of people are willing to jump on board immediately–whether it’s a good or bad idea.

Building off that thought… Michael recently posted this question to listeners: “You have a trading strategy that you have tested over and over but you lose 5% the first year using it, what conclusions do you draw from that?” He reads feedback from listeners who are willing to throw their strategy away after having one down period. Warren Buffett, however, has famously said that if you cannot afford to lose 50% of your portfolio then you shouldn’t be trading – what do you think he would say about a mere 5%?

Michael finishes the podcast reaching back into his archives and pulling some trading rules from past trading legends. He calls this list his “43 Kickass Trading Rules for Bitcoin and Crypto Trading.”

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bitcoin
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Volatility
Direct download: 616.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is an expert on idea futures and markets, was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute’s Foresight Exchange, and DARPA’s Future MAP project. He is co-author of “The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life.” And today Robin and Michael dive right into the heart of our hidden motives.

“The Elephant in the Brain” helps confront hidden motives embedded in the brain–things people don’t like to talk about, also known as, elephants in the room. Robin shows that once our brains are able to confront these blind spots, we can better have a grasp on ourselves and the motivations behind how we think–which of course can then lead to possibly better policy.

Think about it: Why does one person find another attractive? Why do we laugh? Robin answers these questions and more throughout his work. He forces you to dig into the deeper, darker parts of your psyche and look in the mirror. And Michael takes great pleasure in letting Robin reveal his awesome insights on today’s show.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Hidden motives
  • Humans as political animals
  • Deception vs. self deception
  • Selfishness
  • Understanding your motivations
Direct download: 615.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Very experienced guys make great interviews. They bring age, perspective and wisdom to the table. Tom DeMark and Perry Kaufman are two men that have previously been on the podcast that exemplify this statement. Michael went back into the archives to bring these men and their interviews on the podcast today.

Perry Kaufman is an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs. He currently is president of Kaufman Analytics.

Tom DeMark is founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics and the creator of the DeMark Indicators. Tom considers himself a market timer and believes that fundamentals are critical; however, he and Michael still have a lot in common. His work is price and technically driven.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price movement
  • Fundamentals
  • Technical analysis behind the scenes
  • Elliott wave
  • The Fibonacci sequence
  • Forecasting
  • George Soros
  • Michael Steinhardt
  • Paul Tudor Jones
  • Steve Cohen
  • Computerizing indicators
  • 100% algorithmic trading
  • Systematic vs. Automated
  • Optimization vs. Validation
  • Tail events
  • Discipline
Direct download: 614.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Matt Smith is CEO of Royalty Exchange, an online rights platform where users sell portions of their royalty income and investors bid on it. The primary goal of Royalty Exchange is to make royalty streams investable. They have held over 200 auctions in the last 18 months where artists and investors interact in the buying and selling of royalties. Recently Matt launched a sister company Royalty Flow–created to purchase larger royalty streams and get more investors involved.

What is the process of Royalty Flow? Investors can buy shares through a platform called Folio, those shares are then transferred to a major exchange like Nasdaq. Royalty Flow was created after being approached to buy Eminem’s royalties. Royalty Flow provides a way for a pool of investors to purchase. What are motivations for investors to buy royalties? Investors view this as a hedging strategy because it is uncorrelated to their other portfolios. In contrast, what are some motivations for selling off royalties?

There are hundreds of thousands of investors that contribute to artists getting their music out there – music producers, song writers, etc., not just performers. Those contributors have royalties. Artists and their contributors see the advantages to diversification and investors see a sense of security in having a steady flow of income outside of their Wall Street portfolios.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Streaming music
  • Music royalties
  • ICO’s
  • SEC regulations
  • Sesame Street royalties
  • Eminem royalties
Direct download: 613.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Larry Hite recently called Michael and left him a voicemail regarding podcast episode #606. Larry has seen his share of ups and downs and has had a great career so praise from Larry was a nice surprise. Michael follows Larry’s praise by sharing a recent Facebook conversation with a critic. The conversation ensued regarding a post quoting Sam Harris. The back and forth that began with this Facebook “friend” starts with her calling Michael dogmatic (among other things) and by the end of the banter she evolves to calling him a cult leader. What is the takeaway from this conversation? Develop a system for dealing with people and their opinions. What is a key thing to keep in mind while developing that system? Not everyone’s opinion matters.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trend Following 5th Edition
  • Dogmatic
  • Trend following performance
  • How to filter trolls
  • Sock puppets
  • Sorting the real from the fake
Direct download: 612.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Michael Gervais is a high performance psychologist. He works with top performers to train and implement skills necessary to pursuing and revealing one’s maximum potential. His clients include world record holders, Olympians, internationally acclaimed artists and musicians, MVPs from every major sport and Fortune 100 CEOs. He is also co-founder of Compete to Create.

Part of Michael’s training is helping clients realize there are things we are in control of and things we are not in control of – therefore focus on what you can control. We can train our bodies, our craft and mind. Michael teaches clients through science based research that refining ALL three of these areas are essential to becoming successful.

So what does world class awareness look like and how do you achieve it? There are no words that can capture what awareness is, but when someone becomes fully aware, it is as if they are fully engrossed in the task at hand. They have an intimate understanding of how their thoughts, actions, and words are lining up with the environment. However, just being “aware” is not enough for mindfulness. Creating mindfulness could be as simple as focusing on one thing for a length of time. This might mean refocusing the mind thousands of times. As soon as you allow yourself to get into the moment, performance jumps astronomically. Athletes are a great way to judge this. They live in a world of compressed time. Most athletes only have a couple of years to compete at peak performance. Because of this, top athletes tend to understand being mindful and grasp the importance of being in the present moment faster than the average person.

Another aspect of Michael’s work is learning what motivates a client. There are two types of motivations: internal and external. Science has shown that people more aligned with internal motivations tend to outperform those motivated by external factors such as money, fame and power. However, regardless of your motivations or natural talents (or lack thereof), Michael stresses that greatness is accessible to everyone. Investing in mental skills that help deal with challenges that come your way is well worth the time to cultivate. Work on mastering the aspects of your life that you can control. Understanding how to do it is the easy part, implementing is the hard part.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Living in the present moment
  • Mindfulness
  • High performance training
  • Grit
Direct download: 611.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

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