Trend Following with Michael Covel
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.

Ann Mei Chang is author of “LEAN IMPACT: How to Innovate for Radically Greater Social Good.” She was a technology executive with more than 20 years of experience at Google, Apple, and Intuit, as well as a range of startups before she pivoted her career into the private, social and non-profit sectors. She now works with companies around the world to help streamline growth and innovation.

Innovation is necessary for any company to grow. Ann helps non-profits and more risk-adverse companies properly take risks to improve their process. From global development to technology companies – there is a lot of uncertainty to combat against, grants to be filled as well as shareholders to appease. When tackling big issues investors and the public want to see tangible results quickly. Ann shows a balance between thinking big, keeping an eye out for what can be done better and keeping track of ever changing demand. Audacious goals are important, but you also need a process and plan of what is going to get you to that audacious goal.

Innovation is not only about creating the latest new thing, but rather taking something that is already created and making it better. Google wasn’t the first search engine, but they made it better. Facebook wasn’t the first social network, but they improved on it and made the experience better. Ann gives the example of a 700 year old invention – eyeglasses. With how long eyeglasses have been around, there is still about 2.5 billion people without access to them. Vision Spring is a non-profit that was created to reach these people without access. Vision Spring’s initial business plan wasn’t reaching as many people as planned and money was running out quickly. With continuously being open to making pivots in their business model, they continue to grow and reach larger and larger amounts of people. It is all about adaptability and innovation within whatever company your are at – non-profit to big technology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Political grandstanding
Process vs. outcome
Understanding your base customer
Projecting bias
Non-profit work

Direct download: 715.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

You Are Responsible with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 714.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:00pm EST

The Trend Following Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. A holiday reminder on great thinking!

Direct download: 713.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Bradley Hope is a finance and malfeasance reporter for the Wall Street Journal and his latest book is “Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World.” Bradley is a Pulitzer finalist and winner of the Gerald Loeb Award for international reporting and the TRACE International Award for Investigative Reporting.

“Billion Dollar Whale” profiles a man named Jho Low – a young Malaysian man from a relatively wealthy family. He grew up attending the best boarding schools and finished up schooling at The Wharton School. During his time at Wharton he created a private equity group. He was able to get some of his wealthier friends and their parents to throw money into the fund. From a young age he knew what made people tick and had a talent connecting with very wealthy and strong political figures. Jho eventually got an audience with the Prime Minister of Malaysia to set up a fund for the Prime Minister’s campaign – this is where the real story of Jho Low starts to unfold.

Jho quickly went from a guy with a million or so dollars to worth about $700 million over night. He began throwing extravagant parties, renting private yachts and planes, and rubbing elbows with the world’s elite. He started buying giant stakes in companies and was even able to borrow 6 ½ billion from Goldman Sachs. The extent of how much he has stolen and from who is still largely unknown. Jho Low figured out how the world works, develop relationships and was the king of understanding that you could buy just about everything. With the scandal still unfolding in real time, Bradley’s book has created waves in countries around the world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Sovereign wealth funds
  • Money laundering
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Banking compliance
Direct download: 712.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Daniel Peris is author of “Getting Back to Business: Why Modern Portfolio Theory Fails Investors and How You Can Bring Common Sense to Your Portfolio” and a portfolio manager at Federated Investors. Before transitioning into asset management, Peris was a historian focused on modern Russian history, but now self identifies as a business investor.

Daniel’s clients tend to be more conservative investors that approach markets from a business perspective rather than a passive investment approach. His main focus is to help clients make better business like decisions about markets. Not everyone has the time or desire to be an active investor, however Daniel hammers the point that if you don’t want to take responsibility for your own trading, there are plenty money managers for hire that will align with investors needs.

Daniel has strong views on economic practices like the efficient market hypothesis (Eugene Fama) and modern portfolio theory. Daniel sees the modern portfolio theory as particularly outdated. Modern portfolio theory was a hypothesis developed by Harry Markowitz in his paper “Portfolio Selection,” published in 1952. It is an investment theory that investors can build portfolios to optimize or maximize potential return based on a prescribed level of risk within the market. This theory governs the typical investors portfolio and is the most influential economic theory in finance and investment today. Daniel argues in his book and on the podcast that this system was developed in the 50’s and does not connect to 2018 investing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Modern portfolio theory
Efficient market hypothesis
Value investing
Momentum investing
Diversification
Portfolio selection
Defining risk

Direct download: 711.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Peter Boettke is economist of the Austrian School. He is currently an economics and philosophy professor at George Mason University; the BB&T Professor for the Study of Capitalism, Vice President for Research, and Director of the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center at GMU. His newest book is “F. A. Hayek: Economics, Political Economy and Social Philosophy (Great Thinkers in Economics).”

Peter got hooked on economics during college after being hired for his first job – digging pools. He saw taxes being taken out of his pay and personally felt the negative effects. The philosophy behind why his checks were being garnished didn’t sit well with him. Rather than be frustrated, he got fascinated with the way economics worked and quickly saw there was something obviously wrong with the way government was ran. Along with signing up for all the economics classes he could, Peter went to the library and read. He had “a-ha” moments in those reading sessions that has molded him to be the economist he is today.

Michael and Peter touch on a broad scope of topics including: What is Peter’s perspective on President Trump’s view of trade wars and tariffs? Should intellectual property be protected? What is rent seeking and how does it relate to Jeff Bezos? What separates the American entrepreneurial spirit from entrepreneurs overseas?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trade deficits
Trump politics
Politics in the marketplace
Zero sum game
Jeff Bezos and rent seeking
The market for privileges
Merchant class mentality

Direct download: 710.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Paul Britton is a portfolio manager at Apollo Systems Research Corporation.

What got Paul going down the trend following path? In high school Paul’s dad put him into a stock that went from $5 to $60. He took his profit and put money into a couple more stocks that turned out to be winners as well. These lucky trades peaked his interest in markets. Shortly after making these initial trades, Paul’s dad also gave him a copy of “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.” He started working and looking at data trying to see if he could get a system of his own to work. He quickly learned that you can play around with entry and exit points, markets, etc., but as long as you pick up on the big trends and ride them until they lose–that was the #1 way to make money.

Paul lets the experts in different markets such as milk, coffee, orange juice, sugar, stocks, currencies, etc. “tell him how to trade” by showing their opinions hidden within the price. “You don’t need a fundamental expertise to be trading any of these markets.” Paul is in 110 different markets. He trades strictly off price and has no idea outside of price “why” stocks are going up and down. Every strategy they develop at Apollo Systems Research Corporation has to work on many markets and have maximum diversification. Paul loves adding diversity to his portfolio where other trend followers may not be.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Momentum bias
Let your winners run
Fundamental trading
Diversification
Global macro trading
Compounding
Supply and demand

Direct download: 709.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

One of the Omaha Guys Lays It Out with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 708.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Deliberate Practice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 707.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

1