Trend Following with Michael Covel
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.

Jerry Parker is back on the podcast. He is the founder of Chesapeake Capital, was one of the original TurtleTraders trained by Richard Dennis and has had unbelievable success over his four decade career. Jerry brings to the table a straightforward way of breaking down how trend following works.

Trend following relates to everything – from Wall Street to baseball. One of Jerry’s early heroes was John W. Henry, a successful trend following trader and now owner of the Boston Red Sox. Michael and Jerry break apart how John W. Henry and others cross the trend following mindset into sports and beyond.

What is Jerry Parker’s worldview? “It’s dangerous out there and you cannot predict it. Stocks are not superior and they are not the go-to investment all the time. Pay attention to the trend. Protect yourself. Be humble, conservative and worried about risk.” He doesn’t see that view changing anytime soon for anyone – including investors. What do investors want? And do they know what they want? Jerry knows he can’t make everyone happy but he try’s to provide appropriate risk control for his clients without missing out on too much profit.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Baseball analytics
Lumpy returns
Crisis alpha
Having a process and sticking to it
Value Investing
Bobby Axelrod

Direct download: 697.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Michael explores new research showing pharmaceutical statins do nothing to help prevent medical problems relating to heart disease–if you have no risks. For years people have believed there was a special pill to save them from high cholesterol. Turns out, there is no special pill to help–exercise, eat well, get adequate sleep–these things are how you improve your health. It’s about personal responsibility. Trust yourself? Or trust the system that has been proven wrong time and time again?

$400 billion dollars has been lost in crypto currencies. Michael shares an example of a man who lost 95% of his $120,000 investment in Bitcoin. When Bitcoin started going down he tried diversifying into other crypto currencies. He said his learning process was like “solving the plot of a murder mystery.” The notion that he could use fundamental data and figure out how to trade Bitcoin was all wrong. Jerry Parker commented on this story by saying, “He should have studied trend following.” Having a stop in place, and looking at the data would have saved him from his financial ruin.

Statins and cryptos connect? You bet.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Big pharma
Statins
Trusting the system
Personal responsibility

Direct download: 696.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Scott Belsky is an American entrepreneur, author and early-stage investor best known for co-creating the online portfolio platform, Behance, Inc. He is author of several books with his latest being “The Messy Middle: Finding Your Way Through the Hardest and Most Crucial Part of Any Bold Venture.”

How did Scott get started as an entrepreneur? He started his first business with two partners selling paper products. He bootstrapped his way through the industry for the first few years – accepting no outside help. It wasn’t until five years into building his company that he had to move in the direction of needing to raise funding. However, at that point Scott and his partners had already built their company at their own pace and on their own terms.

When starting a new business there are a lot of questions that come up: How do I prepare for the long term? How do I hire someone? How do I fire someone? How do I structure team communication? How do I become a better decision maker? How do I continue to make a better product? Scott’s new book is a guide to help answer all these questions.

Uncertainty may be one of the biggest roadblocks in deciding to start a business. What does uncertainty mean to Scott? Uncertainty is a burden that must be processed continually. The more you embrace doing something on your own, the more you will learn how to cope and process that fear.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Seth Godin
Entrepreneurship
Enduring lows and optimizing highs
Uncertainty in business
Starting a business
Staying engaged
Self awareness

Direct download: 695.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Ken Kocienda was a software engineer/designer at Apple for over fifteen years and is now the author of “Creative Selection: Inside Apple’s Design Process During the Golden Age of Steve Jobs.” After being introduced to the internet in 1994 he taught himself computer programming and made his way through a succession of dot-com-era startups, before landing a job at Apple in 2001. He worked on software teams responsible for creating the Safari web browser, iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch.

Ken entered college with the mindset of becoming a history professor or even a photographer. He had various interests in college, however none of them were in the technology sphere. He moved to Japan after college for a few years and upon moving back to the United States, he was introduced to the internet for the first time and instantly intrigued by it.

Ken interviewed for Apple in spring of 2001 before the iPod had been released--Apple was still relying on the Mac as their main revenue stream at the time. Ken had loved Apple products since he saw his first Mac in 1984 so when he was hired on at Apple it was surreal. His first job was to make Apple a web browser of its own – what we all know as Safari today. Later, in 2004, he joined the team to make the software for the iPhone’s touchscreen operating system, among other products.

Inspiration, collaboration, craft, diligence, decisiveness, taste and empathy are seven attributes Ken uses to describe how Apple became the success story they are today. Steve Jobs and Apple chased perfection and demanded nothing short of it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Pyramid of demos
Steve Jobs thought process
Apple company philosophy
Completely present in the moment
Reality distortion field
Creative selection
Green Bay Packers and Vince Lombardi

Direct download: 694.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Terence C.M. Tse is an educator, speaker, advisor and commentator. He is a co-founder of Nexus FrontierTech and co-author of “Understanding How the Future Unfolds: Using Drive to Harness the Power of Today’s Mega Trends.” His mantra is “You can’t predict the future, but you can be ready with a plan.”

Terence’s book focuses on a term he calls “Presentcasting.” He does not promote forecasting but rather teaches people to look at what’s in front of them and see how things are unfolding in current time. He has created the acronym DRIVE – defining 5 interrelated mega trends: demographic and social changes, resource scarcity, inequalities, volatility, complexity and scale and enterprising dynamics. These are the five directions Terence points clients in when they start thinking about improving their lives.

What is one way to step outside the box and get a better look at trends unfolding? Travel. Traveling is crucial to seeing the speed in development and change happening around the world. Desire to climb the economic ladder is not exclusive to one culture or another. Everyone is looking for the same economic wealth. Most cultures promote the desire to get a college degree, however this leaves young adults lacking the ability to take risks. The education system trains students to study, take exams well and work in certain defined jobs. However, in today’s world learning how to deal with uncertainty, have an entrepreneurship mindset, and take a little risk are the skills that will help young adults get ahead an prosper.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Preparing of uncertainty
Entrepreneurship
Economics abroad
New technology
Rise of the internet
Disappearance of white collar jobs
Student loans

Direct download: 693.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Bob Woodward Spins John Belushi with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 692.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Gregory Aldrete is a professor of history and humanistic studies at the University of Wisconsin–Green Bay, where he has been teaching since 1995. His emphasis is on rhetoric and oratory, floods in Rome, ancient Greek and Roman history, and daily life in the Roman world. What was life like in ancient Roman times? How did people do things in the ancient Roman Empire? These questions are what fascinates Gregory and keeps him moving forward in his research.

What relevance does ancient history have to us today? We are ever presently walking in the footsteps of those who came before us and until you understand the history of prior civilizations, you cannot fully understand who you are. It is the blunders and the achievements of our ancestors that have built up what we see today. There is not much that can be taken away from talking heads in the news and on Twitter, but much can be learned from the study of history.

How does Gregory describe a military blunder? To be a true blunder, the situation must have been avoidable. It could have or should have turned out a different way, but because of someone’s mistakes it didn’t. One of the biggest failures of leadership, which consequently leads to blunders, is overconfidence. Michael and Greg give examples of catastrophic blunders ranging from the Battle of the Little Big Horn to Napoleon and Hitler.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Butterfly effect
Overconfidence in leadership
Napoleon’s biggest blunder
Battle of the Little Big Horn
Hitler
D-Day
Technology and understanding its potential

Direct download: 691.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Speed with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. Michael goes back to his archives for two of the fastest men in the world. Risk takers extraordinaire!

Direct download: 690.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

1