Trend Following with Michael Covel
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.

Safe is Not Really Safe with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Direct download: 689.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Bob Enck is the CEO of Equinox Funds and has overseen all operations at the fund since March of 2007. Prior to joining Equinox Funds, Bob worked for about 20 years with large, highly regulated health care organizations including Bristol-Myers Squibb as well as with more entrepreneurial venture capital funded organizations.

When was Bob exposed to trend following for the first time? What was his a-ha moment? While he was doing merger and acquisition work, a couple of his friends consistently would ask him to look over literature from their firm to get input. His first exposure to trend following came from that research. The concept of trend following clicked with him and “just made sense.” His real light bulb moment was realizing that Equinox funds could make money in up and down markets. His friends soon asked him to join their company as CEO.

What is so unique about Equinox Funds? They have paved the way in researching and developing alternative investment strategies for clients through unique investment vehicles. They created the first multi-strategy managed futures mutual fund–the Frontier Fund. In a field where many companies tend to become complacent and set in their ways, Equinox brings innovation and creative thinking to the market. Bob and Michael explore the full range of issues across the alternative space.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trend following in up and down markets
Drawdowns
Trend following performance
Discretion
WTF
Forecasting

Direct download: 688.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Peter Leeson is an economics professor at George Mason University and is known for connecting rational choice theory with unusual domains. He looks at human behavior as a series of puzzles that are being solved by those involved. He focuses his studies on everything from bizarre rituals and superstitions to the behavior of Caribbean pirates. Peter’s work has also been quoted as “Freakonomics on steroids.”

How does Peter come up with some of his “crazy” ideas? He likes to have a broad library to read from, particularly history books. As he reads he comes across a lot of practices that may seem outlandish to most, but fascinating to him. From there he digs deeper and finds meaning in certain practices through religion, economics, politics, etc.

Throughout Peter’s work it is clear that the main motivator driving behavior is incentives. What happens when we have government incentives vs. private incentives? Michael and Peter finish the podcast talking government intervention, wealth creation and cultural behavior driving capitalistic efforts.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Somalia pirates
Anarchy vs. government
Medieval law and order
Trial by jury
Logic of incentives
Street hustlers

Direct download: 687.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Brooks Koepka has won three major golf championships in the last 14 months. He has had the emotional fortitude to push through the obvious pressures of being on the top, especially for being only 28 years old.

Brooks wasn’t able to go pro right out of college and moved to Europe to get his PGA tour card. He wasn’t thrilled about having to go overseas to get his chance at the pros in the U.S., but with a chip on his shoulder he used that as motivation to push forward, excel and win championships.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Emotional fortitude
Operating outside the system
Extreme focus
Cryptocurrency crashes

Direct download: 686.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Lawrence Krauss is a theoretical physicist and cosmologist, professor at Arizona State University, director of its Origins Project and author of bestselling books: “The Physics of Star Trek” and “A Universe from Nothing.” He is an advocate for science based data, public policy based on sound empirical data, and scientific skepticism. His goal is to reduce the influence of superstition and religious dogma in popular culture. His most recent book is “The Greatest Story Ever Told–So Far: Why Are We Here?”

When did Lawrence first discover he was a skeptic, someone who would think outside the box? He was encouraged to think for himself from a very early age. He grew up Jewish but slowly grew out of ideas that surrounded the religion. No real a-ha moment, just gradually decided that religion wasn’t something he could believe in. In 6th grade he also began doing poorly in school. His parents moved him to a different school where he subsequently did much better. Lawrence knew that he wasn’t a different person, but it was other people’s expectations that wavered how he performed. From then on, he was conscious of not letting others opinions of him bring down his performance.

Richard Feynman has played a large role in Lawrence and his studies. He is a great example of someone who did not let other’s hinder him. Feynman was charismatic, intelligent, and excited about all things new – he didn’t rely on other’s opinions. The charisma Feynman possessed, combined with the genius of his science made him the legend.

How does Lawrence describe science? It is a process rather than a collection of facts. Science helps to establish what is true from what is non-sense. It also breaks the sensible from the non-sensible. Lawrence brings this mindset into religion taking a controversial stance saying, “God is completely irrelevant to science.” He fiercely believes that the idea of religion was created as a way to explain how the world worked before we had the technology and science to know how it actually works.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Big bang theory
Religion in science
Simulations
Skepticism

Direct download: 685.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

While Michael was visiting the United States recently his assistant sent him some inspiring old Time Magazines and Saturday Evening Post Magazines. Some that particularly stood out? A 1959 Time Magazine with a story about Nicolas Darvas and a 1976 Time Magazine profiling Richard Dennis when he was 27 years old. These two men laid so much of trend following thinking and to see some original articles in print was inspiring.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Modern American male
Trend following fundamentals
Philosophy behind trend following
Black swans
Fundamentals
Ego in trading

Direct download: 684.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Gabriel Radvansky studies mental model theory for human memory and cognition. He strives to understand how people create, organize, store and retrieve mental models. Also, how younger and older adults differ on their use of mental models.

What triggered Gabriel to study cognition memory? He was hooked from the day he took his first introductory psychology class. His teacher’s description of what a psychologist did instantly caught his attention and from there he knew the path he wanted to go down. His original major in college was physics, he then switched to AI computer science and moved into psychology. Because of his other majors, he comes at psychology from a scientific approach.

Gabriel has done extensive research on how a person’s environment changes ones memory. Why does walking through doors make you lose your train of thought? Moving from one environment to another, your brain naturally wants to leave some things behind and pick up new things. Different rooms represent different memories and your brain has been trained to adapt. Humans have the same type of trigger when it comes to computer windows and stories within a book – when a character goes from one location to another, information gets forgotten and lost.

Memory is not about the past – we have memories so we know what to do now, and to help us know what to do in the future. What helps one memory stick more than another? The more emotion linked to a memory, the more vividly you remember those events. Memories with an emotional consequence trigger better and faster than those with no emotion linked to them. What are some steps you can take to help your memory? Write things down and have as many broad experiences as you possibly can.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Event cognition
Work environments
Forgetting curve
Long term vs. short-term memory
Environments where our brains learn best
Memory research

Direct download: 683.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Trend Following Deep Dive with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Direct download: 682.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EST

Bradley Campbell is a sociologist whose research focuses on moral conflict — clashes of right and wrong and how they are handled. His work primarily looked at genocide arising from large-scale interethnic conflicts , but recently he has begun to examine smaller-scale conflicts on modern college campuses. Since about 2013 he has studied the phenomena of micro aggression complaints, calls for trigger warnings and safe spaces. He views this new era as, “Manifestations of ongoing moral change and the clash of different moral ideals.” He addresses these topics in his book, “The Rise of Victimhood Culture: Micro aggressions, Safe Spaces, and the New Culture Wars.”

How did Bradley shift from macro aggression and genocide around the world to micro aggression on college campuses? He was always interested in answering, “Why do people have conflict? And what causes someone to handle that conflict in a particular way?” How are conflicts handled with the legal system? When someone has a grievance, do they avoid them? So what makes someone choose violence over law or avoidance?

With every generation, comes a different way of being taught how to handle conflict. Where one generation may have been taught to have thicker skin and not take things so seriously, today’s kids have been taught to take offense to every micro insult that might make them feel uneasy. Where there is more equality and in places that value diversity, there tends to be more sensitivity to insults – therefore lots of micro insults tend to add up to big offenses.

Are college campuses a place that should display robust conversation? Or should they be a place where free speech is censored? Bradley argues that, if anything, college campuses should encourage free speech. Unfortunately, words are being viewed as literally violent and should be censored. Michael and Bradley end the conversation on where college students stand on Trump and politics today.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Hate crimes
Genocide
Micro aggression
Macro aggression
Victim culture
Trigger warnings
Trust in government
Safe spaces
Free speech

Direct download: 681.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:11pm EST

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