Trend Following with Michael Covel
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 9.5+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at

Michael Covel opens with a mini-monologue about travel including a discussion of his experiences in 2013. Then Michael talks with his guest Fabian Lim. Lim is an entrepreneur based out of Singapore. Covel and Lim discuss life in Singapore generally, and how Singapore has become "the gleaming city on the hill"; Singapore's success despite its lack of natural resources, and how its airport represents the forward thinking found there; Lim's first entrepreneurial ventures; the varied reasons that cause us to become entrepreneurs, and the difference between online and offline entrepreneurs; experience in the context of entrepreneurship, and how it can be used as an excuse; timeframes and getting out of the "employee" mindset; becoming rich, and why it's a choice; classical conditioning, self-limiting beliefs, and breaking the mold to become an entrepreneur; the idea of "failing faster"; the connection between Lim's flight training and entrepreneurship; risk and uncertainty; using simulations to practice; success traits and failure philosophy; and why choice can be the enemy of a successful entrepreneur. Free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 176.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:58am EDT

Michael Covel talks with Dylan Evans. Evans is a British academic and author. The one subject that really caught Covel’s eye is the idea of “risk intelligence” (see his TED video which is great): expected value, bet sizing, certainty, and process vs. outcome. Evans does a fantastic job of getting at these issues (critical to traders and just about anyone else), and these are the critical issues not only to trading but to life. Covel and Evans discuss expected value, the definition of risk intelligence; optimism bias; correlations between IQ and risk intelligence; the Brandywine Raceway in Delaware and unconscious statistical modeling; probabilities and the nuclear power risk issue; making decisions on uncertain information; the expected value mindset; bet sizing; how luck is always part of the game; knowing when not to bet; the hidden costs of trying to eliminate risk in a system where risk can never be eliminated; and the “calibration test” for risk intelligence. Dylan Evans can be found at Want a free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 175.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:55am EDT

Wondering why your money’s all gone? Michael Covel has two fantastic examples why on today’s podcast. First, famed trend follower David Harding appearing on CNBC gives great opportunity to learn. And second, an article from the reformed broker Josh Brown. Covel goes through the Harding appearance point by point. Next, the CNBC anchors ask questions and Covel responds. Covel moves on to Josh Brown’s article about people acting like “silly little bitches” with their money. Are we in the “funny phase” of a bull market? You see the misinformation campaigns, you see people like Brown saying we’ve entered the silly season. So what does it mean for you? You need a system. You have to know what portfolio you are trading and why. You have to know you’re entry and exit strategies. How much are you going to bet? Do you want to be part of the sheeple, or are you somebody different?

Direct download: 174.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:32pm EDT

Michael Covel returns from a presentation in Bangkok, Thailand and opens up today's podcast with a motivational speech that caught his attention. It all relates back to the individual and personal responsibility. Today, he presents five issues that ultimately revert back to that main headline. First, he talks about Nobel Prizes, Donald Rumsfeld, and one of the “Moneyball” stars (Paul DePodesta). Secondly, he talks about Dave Ramsey on "God" investing. Next, he discusses an article by Howard Gold that says you can't beat the market and then Alan Greenspan having his behavioral economics moment, and lastly listener mail. If the world is uncertain, where does personal responsibility come in? Covel discusses the pursuit of money through religion by way of Dave Ramsey. What does investing "God's way" say about personal responsibility? Covel also talks about the health care rollout, the government role in our lives, and the persistence of the average, and relates it all back to personal responsibility. Receive a free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 173.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:42pm EDT

It might seem like common sense, but clearly it's not being practiced. We all know that markets are volatile. They go up and down. You can get hurt, and getting hurt is part of the game. Even though you can get hurt in the markets or life, that doesn't stop people from pretending. Covel gives some examples to illustrate, and makes an analogy to the Federal Reserve. How have we gotten to the point where some failure, some losing, has been deemed so inappropriate that we're going to try and protect everyone and everything? This has become the way of the markets; the way of life. However, the markets and life are rough. But if the vast majority of people are just trusting their money to a big monolith of a machine, that gives you a leg up. If you have rules that are opposite to what the vast majority of people are doing, that should give you an edge. Free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 172.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:59pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Nick Atkeson. Atkeson's book is called "Win By Not Losing: A Disciplined Approach to Building and Protecting Your Wealth in the Stock Market by Managing Your Risk". Covel and Atkeson talk about momentum and streaks; some of the stories contained in Atkeson's book, including "Sonny" in Vegas and his ability to disrupt the earnings of the Rio Casino, and the idea of the "theo"; why people should invest at all; uncertainty in the markets, with jobs, and in retirement; market timing; asset allocation decisions; negative tail risk; black swans; what happens when/if the US potentially defaults on its debt; the idea of "systematic", taking your losses, and behavioral finance; loss avoidance; and how Atkeson got started in his career. Atkeson can be found at Free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 171.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:53pm EDT

Michael Covel launches into the headlines of managed futures and trend following. Many headlines in the past few months have tangentially touched on the trend following world and Covel sets the record straight. Covel talks about the battle in his world over the phrase "managed futures". A phrase that was created for one reason only from his perspective: to produce commissions. Who cares what the instrument is? It's irrelevant. The only relevant issue is: what is the strategy and how can it help the end user? Covel discusses "managed futures", black box trading, Ray Dalio, Bill Dunn, and an article called "How Investors Lose 89% of Gains From Futures Funds". Covel moves onto the confusion with the phrase trend following and brings up a company named FX Concepts and its leader John Taylor. Yet is this doomed 14B hedge fund really trend following? Covel sees prediction, an assortment of other strategies, and efforts to forecast what the next government move is going to be. That's not trend following. This is a real effort to break apart the headlines giving the end user a look behind the scenes at how the system wants you indoctrinated. Want a free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 170.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:46pm EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Lewis Howes. Howes is a lifestyle entrepreneur with a wealth of different experiences, from starting new businesses to pro-athletics. Covel and Howes discuss what a "lifestyle entrepreneur" really is; how his beginnings in athletics and an injury led to where Howes is today; sacrifice in the context of sports and business; Howes' early influences and mentors; some of Howes' early successes; the shift from success to impact; why "I want to make a billion dollars" is not a great goal to set for yourself; the importance of knowing the "why" of your goals; Howes' experience with his podcast; why doing something different every day is important to happiness; advice for those who want to make fitness a part of their lives; and sleep management. Howes can be reached at and can also be found on his "School of Greatness" podcast on iTunes. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to

Direct download: 169.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:27pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with trader and author Larry Williams. Williams has been in the trading game for over four decades. Covel and Williams discuss the IRS and Congress; targeting of individuals and groups by the government; facing the government in a court case and negotiating with the IRS; how Williams approached trading at the beginning, and his motivations to do so; how growing up in Montana affected Williams personally; how Williams came to run for Senate and his reasoning for doing so; the importance of speculation, and the difference between speculation and gambling; how Williams made the migration from stocks to thinking about futures; how Williams approached the emotional and money management sides of the equation; risk control; understanding what kind of system "fits" you best; the changing condition of markets; keeping it simple; the importance of learning from injury; and how Williams came to his Libertarian mindset. Larry Williams has a legendary name within trading circles. His grounded & calm reasoning will provide new traders confidence, and experienced traders those needed reminders. Free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 168.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:33am EDT

Author and strategist Ryan Holiday returns to the podcast. Holiday's new book, "Growth Hacker Marketing" struck Covel as codifying many of the most important entrepreneurial precepts for success today. Covel and Holiday discuss the definition of "growth hacking"; the different forms of growth hacking; why many other marketing books pertain to big business rather than startups; the startup mentality; how Holiday turned to Bittorrent to launch Tim Ferriss' "The 4-Hour Chef"; platforms in the growth hacking mindset; letting others be lucky; growth hacking in the context of startups; the idea of a product market fit, changing your product, and assessing its strengths and weaknesses; the marketing implications of knowing the "the product is never done"; standing by your convictions but being open minded to change; the anachronism of press releases; Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; the concept of other peoples' money, the lack of flexibility that goes along with that, and the importance of being able to change. Whether you are an entrepreneur with your unique idea, or even a trader, Holiday's engineering way of approaching the world should not be ignored. It's all about hard work and resourcefullness. Ryan Holiday can be reached at and "Growth Hacker Marketing" is available wherever e-books are sold. Free Covel trend following DVD:

Direct download: 167.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:57pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Harry Binswanger on today's podcast. Binswanger is an American philosopher, writer, and Objectivist as a long-time associate of Ayn Rand. Binswanger was recently interviewed by Henry Blodget regarding Binswanger's article on the value of the 1%, and Binswanger expands on this in today's interview with Covel. Covel and Binswanger also discuss being inspired by the 1%, and why his article caused such an uproar; the nature of trade; envy and jealousy; understanding where entrepreneurs start and how wealth is created; the bailouts of 2008; Wal-Mart and its many innovations; why money isn't the root of all evil; seeing Ayn Rand's work woven into the cultural fabric; statism; Navigators and the new health care laws; why the wealthiest counties in America all surround Washington, DC; why we're at the "tipping point" in society today; thoughts on Ron Paul vs. the principles of Ayn Rand. Binswanger can be found on and writes a column for Forbes. Free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 166.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:11am EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Tom O'Connell of O'Connell Sports Management. Since 1997 O'Connell has represented over 70 professional baseball players and is a certified agent with the Major League Baseball Players Association. O'Connell has a fantastic entrepreneurial story about starting from scratch, grinding it out and having massive passion. Covel and O'Connell discuss how O'Connell became the entrepreneur he is today, starting off in the club business; his plans for the baseball offseason; "Moneyball" and the use of statistics; salary arbitration; projecting results into the following year; the importance of risk; what O'Connell learned from working with baseball scouts; competition amongst other agents; comparisons to the hedge fund world; some of the more interesting baseball characters that O'Connell has sat down with; and the importance of getting out of your comfort zone. Even if you have no interest in baseball, this conversation is more directly about making something big happen in life and taking responsibility. A great inspirational story. For more information on Tom O'Connell go to Free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 165.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:55pm EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Richard Noble. Noble likes to go very fast. In fact, the Scottish entrepreneur held the land-speed record between 1983 and 1997. His current team is aiming to go over 1000 MPH on the ground in a car. Covel and Noble discuss what 600 MPH feels like to someone who has never been there before; the mental processes when you're going at high speeds; process vs. outcome; the danger of emotional highs; Noble's entrepreneurial spirit; how Noble got the desire for the land-speed record at the age of six; whether Noble views his endeavors as "life threatening"; the idea of "higher risk" in life and society today; the importance of taking risks; the idea of developing a "risk culture"; motivating people to come over to your own perspective; the difficulties Noble experienced with British culture, the media, and with big companies; the parallel experiences Covel and Noble have had on the web; and where Noble stands on breaking the 1000 MPH barrier right now. For more information on Richard Noble, go to Free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 164.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:43pm EDT

Michael Covel recently interviewed Peter Borish, who has an unparalleled background in charity. He helps run his charity like a business; there has to be results. Because if you don't run it like a business, there is often waste. Building on that idea Covel's perspective is that Government does the opposite. Covel moves on and discusses wealth inequality between the 1% and the 99%--a favorite societal debate today. For example, the Wal-Mart heirs have the same wealth as the bottom 30-40% of America's entire population. Covel thinks that when it comes to the inequality debate, however, that the government is ultimately responsible for inequality. They're pimping out the American people to large operations, whether that's banks, insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, and or fast food companies. Covel gets into specifics about this "pimping" behavior discussing how else the government creates inequality and discusses mandated healthcare. In the midst of all this chaos, there are trends--big ones. Covel notes that one of those trends is Singapore, and how it appears to be Ayn Rand's "Galt's Gulch". Average as a state of mind--is the poison to eliminate. Who wants to be average? You have to figure out a way to make yourself valuable--above average. Covel explores it all with attitude and tough questions. Free trend following DVD:

Direct download: 163.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:06pm EDT