Trend Following with Michael Covel
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.

Michael Covel opens up about his more interesting experiences in 2013, first talking about his experiences presenting to the sovereign wealth funds for Singapore and Malaysia. Covel moves into talking about the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (another sovereign wealth fund), and whether they are understood as a trend following trader or not. Covel talks about the “silent magic hand”, and its connection to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and whether this means they are now executing trend following in-house. Covel talks about how this means potentially less and less public information about trend following going forward. Covel moves into media manipulation and distraction and how it surrounds us 24/7. He also discusses an upcoming trend following conference in Asia in late 2014. Time to start kicking ass. No sitting still. Get on a plane now! Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 196.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:17pm EDT

Michael Covel takes us out of 2013 with his unique perspective on today’s podcast. Always the passenger, Covel discusses his travels throughout 2013. He moves on to discuss the people who have appeared on the podcast in the last few months. Discussing his most recent guest, Covel quotes Dan Ariely from a TED Speech. Covel notes that being a trend following trader is not about excitement; once you’ve figured out your system, there’s no day to day information flow that’s useful. That’s over: CNN, Bloomberg, etc. People think they need constant and more information to make decisions about the market--wrong. So how do you make good decisions in the light of so much information? Price movement, price action. Covel moves on to talk about simple heuristics and his recent podcast with Gerd Gigerenzer. Covel also announces a trend following conference in Singapore. Happy holidays! Free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 195.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:05pm EDT

Today on the show is Dan Ariely. Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke. He has a bestseller titled “Predictably Irrational”. He has given great TED Talks with millions of views. Covel and Ariely discuss irrationality and rationality on today’s show, including how we make decisions (with often poor processes). Covel and Ariely’s discussion includes the irrationality of fundamentals in equity markets; the wisdom of crowds, constraints and where else our money can go; the awarding of the Nobel Prize to professor Shiller and Fama--two famed professors with very different outlooks--and whether it’s irrational or not; macroeconomics vs. microeconomics; lessons learned during his life-threatening burns; why people lie; why the freedom to do whatever we want and change our mind is the shortest path to making bad decisions; and how 2008 became a constructive tool for Ariely; why Bubbles are some of the most imprecise factors out there; and Ben Bernanke. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 194.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:57pm EDT

Today, Michael Covel speaks with Gerd Gigerenzer. Gigerenzer is the director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, and is a former professor of psychology at the University at Chicago. Gerd is also the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy (read David Harding the head of trend following firm Winton Capital). Covel speaks with Gigerenzer about heuristics. For those of you that trade; for those of you that invest; and for those of you that just want to navigate risk and certainty in your life, this conversation is mission critical. His work is the philosophical foundation of trend following success, for starters. Covel and Gigerenzer discuss uncertainty; comparing decisions to baseball (gaze heuristic); complex problems and simple solutions; using price action as a decision making cue; unconscious heuristics; the art of knowing what one doesn’t have to know; the less is more effect; the miracle on the Hudson River a few years ago as a case in point illustrating heuristics; the idea of an adaptive toolbox; the element of surprise in Gigerenzer’s work; the distinction between risk and uncertainty; intuition vs. rationality. This type of understanding is ultimately far more important than any trading system breakdowns. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 193.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:11pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Dan Collins. Dan Collins is a 25-year veteran of the Futures industry, founder of the Dan Collins Report and most recently was named Editor-in-Chief of Futures Magazine (Covel and Collins’ conversation took place just before Collins was named Editor-in-Chief). Covel and Collins discuss why the mainstream media seems to not even attempt to hide the bias and the propaganda against the styles and types of trading in the worlds that Covel and Collins occupy (i.e. trend following, systematic, managed futures, etc.); a particular Bloomberg article which attacked managed futures and alternative strategies; and why articles like these are an attack on the average investor. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 192.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:30pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Eric Crittenden. Crittenden is a Founding Partner responsible for managing all research, risk quantification and trading operations at Longboard Asset Management. He's also been featured in Covel's own Little Book of Trading. Today, Crittenden and Covel talk about a white paper that was originally released in 2005 that concerns trend following on stocks. Topics of discussion include the decision to do research into trend following on equities, and the background behind the white paper; why others weren’t trading equities with a trend following strategy at the time, and why there’s been a sea change in the industry now; stress tests; how Critenden’s models and datastreams apply to a model; if Crittenden sees anything on the horizon that takes trend following on equities in a suboptimal direction, and where he sees it going in the future; whether Crittenden’s work is all price driven and all systematic; the amount of human judgment involved in Crittenden’s strategy; why this strategy works if it’s based on inefficiencies in the market, and Eugene Fama just won a Nobel Prize regarding the markets being efficient; why exposure management is more important than the entries and exits themselves; the importance of blocking out distractions.

Direct download: 191.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:00am EDT

Michael Covel monologue.

Direct download: 190.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:47am EDT

Michael Covel talks with Kathy Kristof. Kristof is a contributing editor for Kiplinger Personal Finance magazine. Kristof and Covel discuss the fact that, if we have bubbles, and we keep having bubbles, what does the average investor do?; the difficulty of trying to figure out value today (yes, clearly not Covel's world, but he listens to another perspective); the impact of interest rates on investors; the “nervousness” of stocks; government intervention and trust; why investors are better off with a “softer” job market, and a slower recovery; why we have a “Goldilocks” economy, and what might happen if a black swan swoops in; why almost every strategy will have good results at some time or another, and the importance of picking a strategy for yourself; technology, and the connection to entrepreneurial pursuits. For more information on Kathy Kristof see Kiplinger Personal Finance magazine and CBS MoneyWatch. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 189.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:52pm EDT

Michael Covel touches on on Motorhead, Hugh Hendry, David Harding, Vermeer, The Pope, acroyoga and Saigon psych rock in today’s monologue. How is it all related? Covel explores. First, Covel opens with a quote from Martin Bergin of Dunn Capital: “Everything we do is 100% systematic. There’s no over-ride, no individual decision-making whatsoever. That is the focus of the firm.” Covel moves into a clip from David Harding on Bloomberg. Harding doesn’t completely obliterate Eurgene Fama’s work, but he says, although his work is academic beauty, it doesn’t beat the performance of trend following. Covel then moves into Hugh Hendry. Although not a trend follower per se, he has often said things that are extremely trend following. The quote the Covel explores today, however, gives a clearer picture of Hendry's strategy (its not TF). Next, Covel discusses a documentary produced by Penn and Teller on the Dutch master, Vermeer, who may have used a tool to complete some of his paintings. The analogy to trading is there. There’s a system; there’s a process; there’s a model. Whether in painting, or whether in trading. Next, Covel talks about the Pope’s recent statement on economic inequality. Covel talks about how anyone who wants the politicians to legislate inequality is extremely naive. They have a vested self-interest. Covel moves on to talk about acroyoga, which he’s been practicing for the last several months. It’s reinforcing the idea of deliberate practice in Covel. That’s how Bergin makes that statement, and how Harding is so confident about trend following: They’ve been down the path of deliberate practice.

Direct download: 188.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:07pm EDT

Charles Faulkner returns to the podcast for his fourth interview with Michael Covel. Today, he comes to us from Belgrade. Faulkner is an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. Covel and Faulkner discuss behavior, emotions, decision-making, and intuition in the world of money--and what money does to us on a biological level. Topics include Neurolinguistic Programming; how money in the mind influences money in the world; the schizophrenic-seeming handout to the two recent Nobel Prize winners; “system one” and “system two”; how “one” is running all the time, how “two” takes effort--and where Faulkner hopes to take this research; how experience can teach “system one”; new lightbulb moments in current research; how the “afraid to lose” (or in Singapore, Kiasu) concept could be terribly dangerous when applied to money; why the less you know about something, the  clearer the image--and the more certain you are that it’s real and true; the need for certainty; money as a living metaphor; sunk costs; the Myers-Briggs instrument; and rituals and money. Faulkner also tells us the heart of what he’s after in his new upcoming book. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 187.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:30pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Mikael Stenbom. Stenbom is the CEO and founder of RPM, which is a advisory consulting firm in Sweden. They advise, consult, or manage over 3.5B AUM. Stenbom has had tremendous experience in understanding strategy and the money management side of the CTA/managed futures world. Stenbom and Covel discuss what makes up a “smart money investor”; third party risk monitoring; and the life-cycle of CTA’s, hedge funds, and businesses in general. Nothing is constant in this world, and things change--Stenbom places a time axis on CTA’s to better manage for his clients. He also gives his opinions on why certain CTA’s have found such success. Covel and Stenbom discuss some of Stenbom’s early influences, such as the first time Stenbom had a “lightbulb moment” in the systematic world; Stenbom’s economics background; connections between economics, trading, and sociology; and the Austrian school of economics. Further topics include how Stenbom goes about explaining his style of responsive, systematic trading to new clients; Andrew Lo’s Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (which says that markets are for the most part efficient, but from time to time due to changes in the market ecology, become extremely inefficient); the process of rebranding Stenbom’s firm in 2008; the “politically infected” investor; and the cultural compatibility between Nordic countries and the Japanese. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 186.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:38am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Tom DeMark. DeMark is the founder and CEO of DeMark Analytics and the creator of the DeMark Indicators. DeMark considers himself a market timer and believes that fundamentals are critical; however, he and Covel have a lot in common. His work is price driven and technically driven. DeMark and Covel discuss how all conceivable market factors are in the price movement; obsession, passion and practice; having the “cover story” of fundamentals, but using technical analysis behind the scenes; Elliott wave; the fibonacci sequence; forecasting; DeMark’s thoughts on George Soros, Michael Steinhardt, Paul Jones, Steve Cohen, and others; thoughts on when DeMark first started computerizing his indicators; why you’ll fail if you rely solely on charts; DeMark’s thoughts on the pure price driven, reactive trend following traders; and introducing a new variable into a pure trend following approach. Receive a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 185.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:28pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews Cal Newport. Newport writes on a really interesting subject: Passion (mission critical to trading). You hear it all the time: chase your passion, find your passion. But Newport comes at it from a different perspective, similar to Covel's experiences--passion does not come first, but rather developing top skill comes first. Newport and Covel also discuss Alan Watts; why following your passion isn’t such a great idea from Newport’s perspective; the notion of deliberate practice and the 10000 hour rule, falling back on simplistic strategies that fail; passion following success as the true gauge; misconceptions about passion; thinking of passion as a side-effect of running your career in the right way; overcoming difficulty as a necessary step in the process; the work and analysis Newport has done looking at top chess players; the systematic aspect of gaining skill and its ties to passion; and anxiety and failure. Cal Newport can be found at calnewport.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 184.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:29pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Yaron Brook. Brook is the president and executive director of the Ayn Rand Institute. Covel early on was introduced to Ayn Rand's work by famed trend trader Ed Seykota. Over the years Covel has come to appreciate that numerous top traders and entrepreneurs cite Rand's work as inspirations in their careers. Covel and Brook discuss trading; the nature of altruism; the idea and definitions of selfishness in the context of objectivism; the power of ideas; the idea of being a victim; schools, teaching, and political teaching; entitlement leading to victimhood; the rise of state power, the ambitious poor, and the minimum wage; free work and internships; Alan Greenspan; and America compared to Singapore. More on Yaron Brook: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaron_Brook. Receive a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 183.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:13pm EDT

Michael Covel opens up today’s podcast with an excerpt from a book called “Maximize Your Potential”; talking about growing your expertise and taking bold risks. It comes down to making bets. That is the trend following way. You do not know which market is going to take off; you can’t know, you just have to make bets (with risk management). When whatever technical indicator you’re using hits, you’re in. And if it doesn’t go your way, you get out. With that overview, Covel goes over his week and his experiences so far in Cambodia. Covel talks about living large, comparing us to the people who built the temples in Cambodia. Nothing goes up forever, whether it’s the Cambodian grandeur or Twitter, Priceline or Google. Covel moves on to talk about when one market dries up--then what?. Can you trade all those markets the exact same way? Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 182.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:31am EDT

Michael Covel talks about fear: what scares us and why. What’s scarier: a deadly snake slithering across your path on a hike, or watching a 1000 point drop in the stock market? Covel discusses how there is no way to quantify fear itself. However, there’s a book out: “The Science of Fear”, and Covel quotes from it. Covel also shares his snake eating story from Asia. So what’s the moral of this? The science of fear, Covel’s snake eating story, etc.? Break it down into its component parts. Break it down, and then go live it; do it. The fears that one might have going through the snake scenario are exactly like those going through the markets. You can’t let that fear of losing grab you so that you can’t progress. Look at the opposite side of fear: fear and opportunity exist on either side of the coin. If you don’t think about breaking down trading and investing into its component parts, and figuring out how it works, you’re going to fail. If you hang out with those who make general feel good statements, that’s not breaking it down. Covel’s simple lesson for today: Walk right into the snake, find out how the snake works, take the snake apart, eat the snake (if you have to). That’s how you learn. That’s how you gain confidence. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 181.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:43am EDT

Michael Covel talks with Porter Erisman. His documentary film “Crocodile in the Yangtze” is the story of Chinese entrepreneur Jack Ma. Jack has assembled a net worth of over 3B USD all started from one little e-commerce site called Alibaba. Erisman’s film is a great window in to the cultural differences and similarities that exist across the countries of our planet. Even more specifically, it is an entrepreneurial manifesto for EVERYONE. Covel and Erisman discuss what it was like working with Ma; short-term vs. long-term entrepreneurs; the lack of knowledge/insight America has for China; the perceived threat of China to America; whether nationalism played into Ma’s success; the commonalities between the greatest internet entrepreneurial success stories; government interference with Alibaba; and how eBay was defeated by this small startup in China. More information can be found at www.crocodileintheyangtze.com. Free Covel trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 180.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:53am EDT

Michael Covel talks with Tim Price. Price is a partner and director of investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK. Price makes no bones about it: He comes more from a fundamental value-based perspective. However, what Covel’s eye was the pragmatic, almost investigative look into what’s going on in government and central banks in the past five years. Covel and Price discuss the subordination of freely discovered prices to policy goals; why the recent trading environment seems “wrong and dangerous”; why Price wouldn’t be able to speak freely working for a large bank; why Price and his colleagues aren’t “doom and gloomers”; why the media neglects to report on black swans; why the role of the Fed is to keep “spiking the punch”; the vested financial pushback on having some of these views; risk and “Against The Gods”; why people are hardwired to be loss averse; and an analogy to the US Forest Service. Covel also offers a monologue on the back side of Tim's interview including an update on Bitcoin and an additional insight from Brad Rotter (ep. 177). Tim Price can be found at http://thepriceofeverything.typepad.com. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 179.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:00pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Vernon Smith. Smith is a professor of economics at Chapman University in Orange, CA. He also shared the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences with Daniel Kahneman. Covel and Smith discuss bubbles; some of Smith’s early experiments; how “we’re all born traders”; early “ah ha” moments; early science and engineering beginnings; upsetting the conventional economics “apple cart”; the difference between “hamburgers and haircuts” and the other 25% of goods; Smith’s experience bringing Chicago traders in to lab experiments; how we see the dotcom bubble, spring of 2003, and the real estate bubble today; differences between housing bubbles and stock market bubbles; understanding why bubbles happen; liberty; views on Adam Smith; and Smith’s idealogical journey from socialist to his libertarian leanings today. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 178.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:57am EDT

Michael Covel interviews Brad Rotter. Rotter is a speculator, venture capitalist, and looks for big trends. He's not a trend follower per se, but he's made money in the trend following world. He was the first investor with Richard Dennis in the early 1980’s. Covel and Rotter have a wide-ranging conversation--Rotter's premise is that America has peaked and he sees Bitcoin as a tremendous opportunity. Covel and Rotter discuss how Rotter became an entrepreneur from early years as a farmer in Iowa; how he came to be Richard Dennis' first client when he started managing money; why the US is at 'peak civilization'; why technology is arbing away the need for people; how the unit of time is changing; why it's harder and harder to make an easy living; whether the US government is the greatest hedge fund in history; and why Bitcoin is a 'perfect' currency. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 177.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:38pm EDT

Michael Covel opens with a mini-monologue about travel including a discussion of his experiences in 2013. Then Michael talks with his guest Fabian Lim. Lim is an entrepreneur based out of Singapore. Covel and Lim discuss life in Singapore generally, and how Singapore has become "the gleaming city on the hill"; Singapore's success despite its lack of natural resources, and how its airport represents the forward thinking found there; Lim's first entrepreneurial ventures; the varied reasons that cause us to become entrepreneurs, and the difference between online and offline entrepreneurs; experience in the context of entrepreneurship, and how it can be used as an excuse; timeframes and getting out of the "employee" mindset; becoming rich, and why it's a choice; classical conditioning, self-limiting beliefs, and breaking the mold to become an entrepreneur; the idea of "failing faster"; the connection between Lim's flight training and entrepreneurship; risk and uncertainty; using simulations to practice; success traits and failure philosophy; and why choice can be the enemy of a successful entrepreneur. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 176.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:58am EDT

Michael Covel talks with Dylan Evans. Evans is a British academic and author. The one subject that really caught Covel’s eye is the idea of “risk intelligence” (see his TED video which is great): expected value, bet sizing, certainty, and process vs. outcome. Evans does a fantastic job of getting at these issues (critical to traders and just about anyone else), and these are the critical issues not only to trading but to life. Covel and Evans discuss expected value, the definition of risk intelligence; optimism bias; correlations between IQ and risk intelligence; the Brandywine Raceway in Delaware and unconscious statistical modeling; probabilities and the nuclear power risk issue; making decisions on uncertain information; the expected value mindset; bet sizing; how luck is always part of the game; knowing when not to bet; the hidden costs of trying to eliminate risk in a system where risk can never be eliminated; and the “calibration test” for risk intelligence. Dylan Evans can be found at projectionpoint.com. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 175.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:55am EDT

Wondering why your money’s all gone? Michael Covel has two fantastic examples why on today’s podcast. First, famed trend follower David Harding appearing on CNBC gives great opportunity to learn. And second, an article from the reformed broker Josh Brown. Covel goes through the Harding appearance point by point. Next, the CNBC anchors ask questions and Covel responds. Covel moves on to Josh Brown’s article about people acting like “silly little bitches” with their money. Are we in the “funny phase” of a bull market? You see the misinformation campaigns, you see people like Brown saying we’ve entered the silly season. So what does it mean for you? You need a system. You have to know what portfolio you are trading and why. You have to know you’re entry and exit strategies. How much are you going to bet? Do you want to be part of the sheeple, or are you somebody different?

Direct download: 174.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:32pm EDT

Michael Covel returns from a presentation in Bangkok, Thailand and opens up today's podcast with a motivational speech that caught his attention. It all relates back to the individual and personal responsibility. Today, he presents five issues that ultimately revert back to that main headline. First, he talks about Nobel Prizes, Donald Rumsfeld, and one of the “Moneyball” stars (Paul DePodesta). Secondly, he talks about Dave Ramsey on "God" investing. Next, he discusses an article by Howard Gold that says you can't beat the market and then Alan Greenspan having his behavioral economics moment, and lastly listener mail. If the world is uncertain, where does personal responsibility come in? Covel discusses the pursuit of money through religion by way of Dave Ramsey. What does investing "God's way" say about personal responsibility? Covel also talks about the health care rollout, the government role in our lives, and the persistence of the average, and relates it all back to personal responsibility. Receive a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 173.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:42pm EDT

It might seem like common sense, but clearly it's not being practiced. We all know that markets are volatile. They go up and down. You can get hurt, and getting hurt is part of the game. Even though you can get hurt in the markets or life, that doesn't stop people from pretending. Covel gives some examples to illustrate, and makes an analogy to the Federal Reserve. How have we gotten to the point where some failure, some losing, has been deemed so inappropriate that we're going to try and protect everyone and everything? This has become the way of the markets; the way of life. However, the markets and life are rough. But if the vast majority of people are just trusting their money to a big monolith of a machine, that gives you a leg up. If you have rules that are opposite to what the vast majority of people are doing, that should give you an edge. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 172.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:59pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Nick Atkeson. Atkeson's book is called "Win By Not Losing: A Disciplined Approach to Building and Protecting Your Wealth in the Stock Market by Managing Your Risk". Covel and Atkeson talk about momentum and streaks; some of the stories contained in Atkeson's book, including "Sonny" in Vegas and his ability to disrupt the earnings of the Rio Casino, and the idea of the "theo"; why people should invest at all; uncertainty in the markets, with jobs, and in retirement; market timing; asset allocation decisions; negative tail risk; black swans; what happens when/if the US potentially defaults on its debt; the idea of "systematic", taking your losses, and behavioral finance; loss avoidance; and how Atkeson got started in his career. Atkeson can be found at deltaim.com. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 171.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:53pm EDT

Michael Covel launches into the headlines of managed futures and trend following. Many headlines in the past few months have tangentially touched on the trend following world and Covel sets the record straight. Covel talks about the battle in his world over the phrase "managed futures". A phrase that was created for one reason only from his perspective: to produce commissions. Who cares what the instrument is? It's irrelevant. The only relevant issue is: what is the strategy and how can it help the end user? Covel discusses "managed futures", black box trading, Ray Dalio, Bill Dunn, and an article called "How Investors Lose 89% of Gains From Futures Funds". Covel moves onto the confusion with the phrase trend following and brings up a company named FX Concepts and its leader John Taylor. Yet is this doomed 14B hedge fund really trend following? Covel sees prediction, an assortment of other strategies, and efforts to forecast what the next government move is going to be. That's not trend following. This is a real effort to break apart the headlines giving the end user a look behind the scenes at how the system wants you indoctrinated. Want a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 170.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:46pm EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Lewis Howes. Howes is a lifestyle entrepreneur with a wealth of different experiences, from starting new businesses to pro-athletics. Covel and Howes discuss what a "lifestyle entrepreneur" really is; how his beginnings in athletics and an injury led to where Howes is today; sacrifice in the context of sports and business; Howes' early influences and mentors; some of Howes' early successes; the shift from success to impact; why "I want to make a billion dollars" is not a great goal to set for yourself; the importance of knowing the "why" of your goals; Howes' experience with his podcast; why doing something different every day is important to happiness; advice for those who want to make fitness a part of their lives; and sleep management. Howes can be reached at LewisHowes.com and can also be found on his "School of Greatness" podcast on iTunes. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 169.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:27pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with trader and author Larry Williams. Williams has been in the trading game for over four decades. Covel and Williams discuss the IRS and Congress; targeting of individuals and groups by the government; facing the government in a court case and negotiating with the IRS; how Williams approached trading at the beginning, and his motivations to do so; how growing up in Montana affected Williams personally; how Williams came to run for Senate and his reasoning for doing so; the importance of speculation, and the difference between speculation and gambling; how Williams made the migration from stocks to thinking about futures; how Williams approached the emotional and money management sides of the equation; risk control; understanding what kind of system "fits" you best; the changing condition of markets; keeping it simple; the importance of learning from injury; and how Williams came to his Libertarian mindset. Larry Williams has a legendary name within trading circles. His grounded & calm reasoning will provide new traders confidence, and experienced traders those needed reminders. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 168.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:33am EDT

Author and strategist Ryan Holiday returns to the podcast. Holiday's new book, "Growth Hacker Marketing" struck Covel as codifying many of the most important entrepreneurial precepts for success today. Covel and Holiday discuss the definition of "growth hacking"; the different forms of growth hacking; why many other marketing books pertain to big business rather than startups; the startup mentality; how Holiday turned to Bittorrent to launch Tim Ferriss' "The 4-Hour Chef"; platforms in the growth hacking mindset; letting others be lucky; growth hacking in the context of startups; the idea of a product market fit, changing your product, and assessing its strengths and weaknesses; the marketing implications of knowing the "the product is never done"; standing by your convictions but being open minded to change; the anachronism of press releases; Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram; the concept of other peoples' money, the lack of flexibility that goes along with that, and the importance of being able to change. Whether you are an entrepreneur with your unique idea, or even a trader, Holiday's engineering way of approaching the world should not be ignored. It's all about hard work and resourcefullness. Ryan Holiday can be reached at RyanHoliday.net and "Growth Hacker Marketing" is available wherever e-books are sold. Free Covel trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 167.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:57pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Harry Binswanger on today's podcast. Binswanger is an American philosopher, writer, and Objectivist as a long-time associate of Ayn Rand. Binswanger was recently interviewed by Henry Blodget regarding Binswanger's article on the value of the 1%, and Binswanger expands on this in today's interview with Covel. Covel and Binswanger also discuss being inspired by the 1%, and why his article caused such an uproar; the nature of trade; envy and jealousy; understanding where entrepreneurs start and how wealth is created; the bailouts of 2008; Wal-Mart and its many innovations; why money isn't the root of all evil; seeing Ayn Rand's work woven into the cultural fabric; statism; Navigators and the new health care laws; why the wealthiest counties in America all surround Washington, DC; why we're at the "tipping point" in society today; thoughts on Ron Paul vs. the principles of Ayn Rand. Binswanger can be found on HBlist.com and writes a column for Forbes. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 166.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:11am EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Tom O'Connell of O'Connell Sports Management. Since 1997 O'Connell has represented over 70 professional baseball players and is a certified agent with the Major League Baseball Players Association. O'Connell has a fantastic entrepreneurial story about starting from scratch, grinding it out and having massive passion. Covel and O'Connell discuss how O'Connell became the entrepreneur he is today, starting off in the club business; his plans for the baseball offseason; "Moneyball" and the use of statistics; salary arbitration; projecting results into the following year; the importance of risk; what O'Connell learned from working with baseball scouts; competition amongst other agents; comparisons to the hedge fund world; some of the more interesting baseball characters that O'Connell has sat down with; and the importance of getting out of your comfort zone. Even if you have no interest in baseball, this conversation is more directly about making something big happen in life and taking responsibility. A great inspirational story. For more information on Tom O'Connell go to www.toconnellsports.com. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 165.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:55pm EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel speaks with Richard Noble. Noble likes to go very fast. In fact, the Scottish entrepreneur held the land-speed record between 1983 and 1997. His current team is aiming to go over 1000 MPH on the ground in a car. Covel and Noble discuss what 600 MPH feels like to someone who has never been there before; the mental processes when you're going at high speeds; process vs. outcome; the danger of emotional highs; Noble's entrepreneurial spirit; how Noble got the desire for the land-speed record at the age of six; whether Noble views his endeavors as "life threatening"; the idea of "higher risk" in life and society today; the importance of taking risks; the idea of developing a "risk culture"; motivating people to come over to your own perspective; the difficulties Noble experienced with British culture, the media, and with big companies; the parallel experiences Covel and Noble have had on the web; and where Noble stands on breaking the 1000 MPH barrier right now. For more information on Richard Noble, go to www.bloodhoundssc.com. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 164.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:43pm EDT

Michael Covel recently interviewed Peter Borish, who has an unparalleled background in charity. He helps run his charity like a business; there has to be results. Because if you don't run it like a business, there is often waste. Building on that idea Covel's perspective is that Government does the opposite. Covel moves on and discusses wealth inequality between the 1% and the 99%--a favorite societal debate today. For example, the Wal-Mart heirs have the same wealth as the bottom 30-40% of America's entire population. Covel thinks that when it comes to the inequality debate, however, that the government is ultimately responsible for inequality. They're pimping out the American people to large operations, whether that's banks, insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, and or fast food companies. Covel gets into specifics about this "pimping" behavior discussing how else the government creates inequality and discusses mandated healthcare. In the midst of all this chaos, there are trends--big ones. Covel notes that one of those trends is Singapore, and how it appears to be Ayn Rand's "Galt's Gulch". Average as a state of mind--is the poison to eliminate. Who wants to be average? You have to figure out a way to make yourself valuable--above average. Covel explores it all with attitude and tough questions. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 163.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:06pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks to Tim Dyer, an RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) in La Jolla, CA. Dyer has also seen the brokerage side of the world too, shares insights regarding how these worlds work, and how clients navigate the waters of professional investing advice. Covel and Dyer discuss what an RIA does for the average investor; the difference between trend following fund managers and the RIA world; the difference between hiring Merrill Lynch and hiring an independent RIA; fiduciary suitability; black swan protection; benchmark issues; Warren Buffett declaring The Fed as history's greatest hedge fund; how the Internet might open up the RIA world, and the value of human-based advice in the RIA world; the disingenuousness of focusing only on the benefits, and failing to see the risks; and why some might say it "feels like 1999" today. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 162.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:28pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Michael Konik, author of "The Smart Money". Konik has had a fantastic experience in the world of sports betting, and the parallels between his world and the trend following world are off the charts. Konik and Covel talk about the similarities between Konik's world and the Turtle story; Konik's background and how he came into this world of rule-based betting; some of the stories about "Big Daddy" Rick Matthews (fake name for a very high profile individual featured on 60 Minutes), the main character in Konik's book and the most successful sports wagerer in the world; position limits; Konik's theater background and how it tied in to the experiment; sports betting technique, the line, the Kelly Criteria, and "Big Daddy's" own line; the "brain trust" and how "Big Daddy" led his operation; point spreads; looking for value rather than a favorite home team; the importance of a dispassionate outlook; the importance of knowing why you place a bet or trade; how the brain trust came up with a line better than the other lines out there; the importance of injuries in sports betting. For more information on Michael Konik, visit MichaelKonik.com. Want a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 161.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:05am EDT

Michael Covel talks to Peter Borish, founder, chairman, and CEO of Computer Trading Corporation. He's also a founding board member of the Robin Hood Foundation, one of the great American charities. Borish has seen much in the financial world over several decades and is a wealth of insights. Covel and Borish have a wide-ranging conversation, covering Borish's charity work, the political side of money, and the trading side. They discuss subjects such as the roots and successes of Borish's charity work; dealing with the fact that you can't help everybody; advice to future non-profit workers; the parallels between non-profits and regular businesses; where things stand today, five years after the 2008 financial crisis; if we're still in an "emergency time" today; corporate welfare vs. social welfare; the lurking black swan and possible equity bubble; discussing whether March of 2009 was like July of 1932; the impact of the internet; Borish's book recommendations and early experiences; and taking the emotions out of trading. Complimentary trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 160.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:00pm EDT

Whenever Michael Covel sees something totally crazy, totally off the rails, he thinks of "Sloop John B" by the Beach Boys. This is surely the strangest trip he's ever been on. Tonight, he saw Warren Buffett call the Federal Reserve "history's greatest hedge fund". You didn't vote for a hedge fund? Well, guess what? One of America's best investors has declared the Federal Reserve history's greatest hedge fund. Covel discusses hedge funds and "the grand experiment" Buffett talks about. Covel discusses media manipulation and deception. Do you want to be a part of the hedge fund that is the Federal Reserve, or do you want to try a strategy for yourself? Covel moves on to play a clip from Suze Orman, who positions herself as a buy and hold guru, but gives a talk about day trading. Irony is a great way to learn, and boy is there some fantastic irony herein. Receive a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 159.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:10pm EDT

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel discusses certainty and uncertainty. When it comes to tomorrow, Covel is majorly uncertain. He doesn't know what's going to happen. He can think of the worst case scenarios, though; a Stoic tradition. Many people today figure the crisis of '08 was a few years back, the Fed has everything figured out, and the stock market is at all time highs. There's nothing to be worried about. Covel reads several quotes to start off the podcast, from Gilda Radner and Richard P. Feynman. Covel questions why most investors don't think like this, and notes that 59% of US investors believe the markets can be predicted. Covel discusses the trend following mindset in contrast, and moves on to talk about Ray Dalio and his 100% systematic trading strategy based on fundamentals. But how do you know when you have enough fundamental data to make a decision? How do you account for the remaining uncertainty? Covel explores. Next, Covel talks about using simple heuristics to make decisions. The simplest factor to follow is the price. That's the only thing you can be certain about. So if you can make decisions off price movement, and use that as a simple heuristic for your buying and selling decisions, you might have something that works for dealing with market uncertainty. From a trend following perspective, simple heuristics is all about trading the price. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 158.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:00pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Mike Bellafiore, author of "The PlayBook". Bellafiore trades an entirely different style than trend following, operating on a much shorter timeframe. Covel and Bellafiore discuss the real rewards to being a successful trader; passion in trading; why professional traders fail; parallels between trading and writing; Bellafiore's history and definitions of "prop trading"; trading short timeframes and intraday trading; the "prop desk"; ups and downs in Bellafiore's career; the early history of SMB Capital; Bellafiore's early struggles with his father's health concerns, his mother's death, an SEC investigation, and how "The PlayBook" came out of it; the ten attributes of a great trader; trading psychology and mindset; personality types and short-term trading; microscalping and swing trading; expertise, flow, and mastery; process vs. outcome; entrepreneurship; the importance of coaching; and the four ways to become great at anything. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 157.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:45pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Patrick Boyle of Palomar Fund Management. Covel and Boyle talk about directional trading; timeframes in trading and short-term trading; Boyle's background and how he came to be a founding partner of Palomar; Boyle's time working with Victor Niederhoffer; Niederhoffer and his teaching lineage; David Harding and Bill Dunn; Boyle's political stances, the Fed, and the SEC; risk and running a directional fund; performance correlation to the S&P and the trend following CTA's; the big picture takeaways that Boyle learned under Niederhoffer; correlations to people who have come out of Niederhoffer's shop; Monroe Trout; testing ideas; how quantitative analysis is different from technical analysis; the book publishing industry, and why all the secrets might not be in a $20 book; where Palomar Fund Management is at today; foundational advice to the budding fund manager; and libertarianism. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 156.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:30am EDT

Michael Covel reads a listener letter he received after his podcast with Gerald Celente. Covel discusses the alternative to not trying, inspiration, and what it takes to be the next David Harding or Bill Dunn. The point is not to be one of these people--it's to give you an above-average chance to make money on your own account. It does no good to compare yourself to billionaires. You can shoot for it, you can strive for it, but you can blow a life and never get there. That's just the pure odds of it all. It's about becoming the next you: your situation. The idea is to be above average and to do the best for your life and your situation. That's the objective. Next, Covel talks about a bizarre accident in China leading into a comment from President Obama about booms and busts. Why are we afraid to criticize Obama? Covel explores. Next, Covel plays a clip from Penn Jillette on the truth, and reads from Tim Price's newsletter. We don't know when the next meltdown will be, but we know it's coming. When? You don't know when, but you need a plan of attack. That strategy has to excel when things are getting a little raw or dicey. Next, Covel plays a clip from Nassim Taleb on anti-fragility. If we know that bubbles are just part of the world we live in, what kind of strategy makes sense in a world dominated by chaos? Trend following is the answer. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 155.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:28pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Gerald Celente, the Publisher of the Trends Journal. Covel and Celente discuss how nefarious the zero interest rate policy really is; forced gambling in the equity markets; the desensitization of the American public; the situation with Syria today; post-dot-com bubble policy in America; solutions to the complex problems today, a "reset to morality", and how it's really up to the individuals to take back what they once had (personal responsibility); deregulation and Glass-Steagall; the days of a level playing field in America; Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley being saved in the 2008 crisis, and "too big to fail"; fascism in America; Celente's visit to Vietnam; and war and altruism as trends in 2013 and 2014. This conversation with Gerald and Michael is not designed to make anyone money, but rather it is designed to give an honest picture of the landscape across the world in the fall of 2013. Chaos rules. Volatility rules. This conversation spells out why that is true and its up to you to determine a plan to solve it for you and your family. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 154.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:16pm EDT

Jim Quinn has a blog called "The Burning Platform", and Michael Covel reads a blog post of his called "Trying To Stay Sane In An Insane World". It's tough to disagree with as Quinn hits the mark. This is a fantastic way to think about Covel's world, the trend following world, in the context of trading. In Covel's world, if Quinn is describing the world accurately, there is no better solution for the chaos than trend following. Quinn makes the case that the chaos isn't going to end anytime soon. Covel goes on to read a short excerpt from CBS MarketWatch that dovetails in nicely to the end of Quinn's piece. This piece discusses the blind optimism of many investors. Covel notes that if this is the landscape that we're facing, if this boom-bust cycle is here in perpetuity, then there's only one strategy that makes any sense. There's only one strategy that has any proof of success: trend following. Trend following is the strategy that takes advantage of societal insanity: whether it's the politicians and the bankers, or the people that blindly follow them. At the end of the day once you've accepted the wisdom of these two articles, you can't really get upset about it. That's the world, the hand dealt. So what can you do? You can pretend to know all and be a fundamental follower, but if you've got a rigged system, the fundamentals don't matter. Or you can accept our upside down world and take advantage of it with a trend following mindset and strategy. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 153.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:57pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Dan Andrews. Andrews runs a very popular podcast at TropicalMBA.com. Covel and Andrews talk about "location independence"; optimizing for time and mobility; Andrews' beginnings as a teenager to where he is today; artists and entrepreneurs; Andrews' beginnings; how being in an entirely different atmosphere can bring out your creativity; how Paris in the 1920's relates to the creative explosion in Asia; the importance of having a blog and telling your story; why people need stories and ideas to follow; telling a story with your business; the importance of "starting" and the iterative process; your brand, and the nature of how you interact with people; thinking you know how to "do it" before you know how the "soup" is made; how hard work means so much more than talent; self-control, self-discipline; "failing forward" and getting used to taking emotional risks; hyper-globalization of small businesses; the revolution of podcasting; distractions, laziness, and doing an inventory on your time. Plus, to make it interesting, Covel and Andrews do the podcast in the same room in Saigon. An interesting conversation for anyone looking to leave the office cube work environment. Want a free trend following DVD? www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 152.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:16pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Eric Wong on today's podcast. Wong is with a family office based out of Hong Kong--his own family's office. His family is a group of entrepreneurs going back many decades, and Wong discusses their history and how he got to where he is today. Covel and Wong also discuss how the rest of the world has a long way to go to understanding how China operates; the niche that Wong's family office, TCG, occupies in the trading space; uncorrelated returns; the advantages of working for a family office; the entrepreneurial history of Wong's family; trend following data, data points, and the importance of data over a long period of time; the Sharpe Ratio, and why the rest of the investing world has a problem with rejecting it; the importance of pain as a measure; why Chinese investors are more driven by returns, and often agnostic to particular investment strategies; investor optimism; "nimbleness" to new ideas in Chinese culture; and entrepreneurism in Asia and America. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: 151.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:13pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Harry Dent on today's podcast. Dent studies demographic and historic trends to project major events. Covel and Dent come at trading strategies differently, but see eye to eye on a number of other issues. Covel and Dent discuss how demographics and consumer spending help to determine what might happen tomorrow; "the demographic clip"; "die-ers vs. buyers"; what happens when a smaller generation follows a larger one; zero interest rate policy and asset prices; inflation; how the government keeps the bubble inflated; comparisons to Japan; the forced spending of principal; whether we've lost the ability to have a conversation about the morals of our current policies; real estate speculation; how we've lost direction on the idea of "resets"; the boom-bust cycle; the importance of failure; "coma" economies; early retirement, and why you can't retire at 65; public employee pensions; and why we ultimately need a crisis to secure our future. Want a free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto082213.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:30pm EDT

Michael Covel has had an interesting week of debate, argument, and discussion on an assortment of topics and he's been looking for a retort. He has allowed everyone to ramble away with their own logical fallacies, anecdotal hocus-pocus, etc. Covel plays a clip from Tom Cruise to illustrate the point of what he's been dealing with: paranoid, fearful, cult-like behavior. So where is Covel going with this? He plays a Samuel L. Jackson clip to show the kind of retort he's looking for. Next, Covel moves into an article that gets at the fact that "we don't even know what we don't know". The article is called "How America's Culture of Hustling is Dark and Empty", and Covel reads excerpts and comments on it. Covel discusses social media; media manipulation; trust; desert island trading; the difference between FOREX trading and other markets; getting away from the herd; knowing that the fundamentals can be faked; fear, power, and desperation. If people are in a trance and sleepwalk through life; if the vast majority of people are zoned out, it's a great opportunity for you. It's a great time to think clearly, because so many people aren't. It's the ultimate opportunity for entrepreneurs, and the ultimate opportunity for trend following trading. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto081813_edit.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:51am EDT

Michael Covel talks with Jerry Parker on his second visit to the podcast. Parker is a trend following trader with over 25 years of experience. His firm is Chesapeake Capital and he was featured in Covel's book "The Complete TurtleTrader." Among many topics, in a Market Wizards/Charlie Rose interview style, Covel and Parker discuss fitness; the Hindenburg "omen"; objective entry/exit criteria; why you'd stay in a long position that you wouldn't want to enter into today; the "oversleeping" hypothetical; the idea that reducing volatility increases risk; definitions of volatility and risk; Parker's thoughts on trend followers not really having drawdowns in the typical sense; "managed futures" and why investors may not want that vs. "trend following"; definitions of "managed futures" and "trend following"; why managed futures isn't a good term for some. Note: this is the first in a new series with Parker. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto081413.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:45pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Rolf Dobelli. Dobelli is a Swiss novelist, writer, and entrepreneur. He's the author of the best-selling "The Art of Thinking Clearly". There can be no greater objective for the population as a whole these days than to think clearly. Covel and Dobelli discuss availability bias; statistics; the sunk cost fallacy; the difficulty of logical thinking; authority bias and outcome bias; process vs. outcome; the irrelevancy and "white noise" of news; information overload; neomania and the obsession with the "new"; Nassim Taleb, outliers, and the black swan; J.P. Morgan, banks, and looking behind the facade; why watching and waiting is torture for people (the action bias); the idea that "the boat matters more than your rowing"; the paradox of choice, closing doors, and settings fire to ships; the "it will get worse before it gets better" fallacy and stop loss; and applying these lessons to daily life. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win. Note: I am aware of the Taleb controversy. Two links to consider: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/dobelli.htm and http://www.dobelli.com/the-taleb-problem.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto081513.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:09am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Mebane Faber on his second visit to the podcast. Faber is a noted author, blogger, and portfolio manager with Cambria Investment Management. His new book, "Shareholder Yield: A Better Approach to Dividend Investing" is out now. If you're into quantitative style investing, Faber is someone who should have your attention. Covel and Faber discuss the state of quant investing in Asia; how asset allocation is like "bullets"; the benefits of quantitative-style systems; protecting yourself against your own behavioral biases; connections between biology and trading; behavioral finance; keeping yourself from making irrational decisions; boom-bust cycles and bubbles; quant views on the efficient market theory and buy and hold; Japanese markets compared to US markets; "cheap" and "expensive" countries and markets; asset class agnosticism; avoiding the big losses; investing based on dividends; momentum as a return factor; and exit strategies. Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win. Also, reach out to Mebane on Twitter @MebFaber and he has agreed to send everyone a free book.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto081213.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:33pm EDT

Michael Covel's bubble is about to burst when it comes to arguments that appeal to emotion; logical fallacies. Straw men, appeals to authority, anecdotal arguments, and the like have all been on the rise. Covel gives some examples: Where is the proof and track records for predictive technical analysis? Trend following, which is a reactive strategy, has a mountain of evidence. A ton of performance data that gives an idea of how many traders across decades, markets, and economic climates both up and down, made money--and it's on file with the CFTC. There are a lot of people out there pushing this predictive TA. Where is the evidence? Yet, they came out swinging for Covel with the logical fallacies. There just aren't decades of track records like trend following. Another commenter tied trend following to his religion, even though trend following doesn't care about your religion--it's agnostic. Trend following is only about the rules, the process. Covel also talks about the phrase "active trader". Covel moves on to a clip from Pink Floyd frontman Roger Waters, discussing an argument over the song "Comfortably Numb" to illustrate his point. Next, Covel plays a clips from Ed Seykota and a clip from TED about Chinese one-party government. If you're listening, the threads connect. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto081113.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:04pm EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Jon Boorman, CMT, a market technician, analyst, and trader with 25 years of experience in global equity, FOREX, and futures markets. Boorman employs trend following and momentum strategies to generate actionable trade ideas. Boorman has been with many big firms in the past 25 years, but now works on his own outside of the infrastructure of the big investment banks and brokerage firms. Covel and Boorman discuss what it was like working within the big firms; Boorman's beginnings and how he found his way to where he is today; what advice Boorman would have for newcomers, and whether the training Boorman went through is still relevant to up-and-comers today; how regardless of your access, success comes down to the individual; price-based trend following vs. other technical analysis; Boorman's early "a-ha" moments towards trend following; trend following complexity, and why it can be "simple, but not easy"; trading your own personality; Van Tharp, risk management and position sizing; trend predicting vs. trend following; the fantasy of calling tops and bottoms; why the major media outlets don't give trend following proper coverage, and why trend followers don't make good "copy"; mistaken emphasis on entries rather than exits; the idea that Boorman "no longer having a need to be right" after he left Lehman Brothers; alpha capture; acceptance of trend following amongst the larger financial community; and understanding the legendary trend following traders such as Bill Dunn and Jerry Parker. Want a free trend following DVD: go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto080713.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:20pm EDT

Michael Covel makes the connection between Miss Korea and a TED speech called "Embracing The Shake" today on the podcast. Miss Korea's video pokes fun at those wanting "more, more, more" and the TED video is concerned with an artist doing more with less. What can you do with less? In the trading world trend following by its very nature is about doing more with less. David Harding was looking for something he could do from a desert island. Getting back to the idea of doing more with less, Covel reads an excerpt about Harding from the Hedge Fund Journal. Harding stepped outside the sheep behavior of the efficient market hypothesis and looked at the data in a different way. Next, Covel plays a clip from former Russian KGB officer Yuri Bezmenov in which he talks about the four step process that forces people to become lost; the four steps which can be used to change the thinking and behavior of entire generations. Demoralization, destabilization, crisis, and normalization. The normalization can last forever. That's what's happening in modern day society. If that is it, the idea of David Harding being curious and looking outside the box (or inside the box as the "Embrace The Shake" video says) is more important than ever. Critical thinking is everything. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto080513.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:10pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Alpesh Patel an asset manager who has written for the Financial Times for many years. Patel and Covel discuss trading in the context of Patel's book, "How To Win at Spread Betting". Even though Patel's book has a focus on spread betting, the style and strategies he talks about hit home with trend following momentum-style trader. Topics include comparisons betweens stocks and futures; what the winners have in common; trade frequency, and why active traders tended to do better in Patel's study; buy & holders vs. spread betters; academic vs. practical insights; whether Patel finds himself at odds with other Financial Times writers; why people like to imagine that trend following and momentum trading doesn't exist; Patel's experience as an expert witness with "trend following on trial"; why the average person has difficulty with betting small, cutting losses, and letting winners ride; George Soros, game theory and trading psychology; win/loss ratios; a coin flipping experiment performed with Ph.D's, the importance of position sizing, and why systems aren't everything; and why gut instinct is the opposite of what professional traders use. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto073013.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:11pm EDT

Michael Covel talks about conversations he has had in the past 24 hours. Someone posted an equity curve of Bill Dunn against the S&P, and the criticism of the drawdowns began. They never talk about the S&P going down 50% twice in the past 13 years; they never talk about the NASDAQ going down 77%; they never talk about the NIKKEI going down 77%. It's always "trend followers have drawdowns". It's like a broken record. It's a surefire sign if someone starts telling you that they are either trying to push an agenda or they have no idea what they're talking about. Trend following is the meat and potatoes. Don't just trust Covel: look at the data. Next, Covel talks about advising people in their 20s against buying real estate. Many, many areas of real estate in the US that are underwater: are all of these people simpletons, dummies? Or did they get caught up in the greed and the fear of a bubble, and a black swan hit? Covel goes on to talk about black swans, zero interest rate policy, and bubbles (and why there is a way around it all). Next, Covel talks about nurture vs. nature. Of course, when he talks about nurture vs. nature, the Turtle story must be brought up. Covel plays two excerpts: one from NPR's Planet Money and another called "Enroll Yourself In The Genius Factory", which gets at the idea of how people develop talent. Covel discusses the peers of Richard Dennis; emotional intelligence; and trend following in the context of nurture vs. nature. Want a free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto072913.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:50pm EDT

Michael Covel talks to author Tom Asacker, author of "The Business of Belief: How the World's Best Marketers, Designers, Salespeople, Coaches, Fundraisers, Educators, Entrepreneurs, and Other Leaders Get Us To Believe." Asacker's book applies to not only all of Covel's world (trading), but it applies to anyone's chosen profession. Asacker and Covel talk about choice and distraction/distrust; belief and its connection to how people make decisions and habit; faith healers and how information can change our beliefs and perceptions; how the supermarket works as a metaphor for belief and choice; Vernon Smith and Daniel Kahneman; the instinctive "feeling" mind vs. the slow, deliberate thinking mind; leading people to choose themselves vs. just getting a job; thinking like a child; comfort vs. desire; why those that have nothing to lose can put themselves in the best position for success; pulling the curtain back on your own mind to determine what your own mind is doing to prevent you from living a full life; the power shift to the individual via the internet; why we see what our minds are conditioned to see; practice, hard work, and passion; the metaphor of baseball, perception, belief, and behavior; thinking your way to a change vs. acting your way to a change; Alan Watts, and the question of "What if money was no object?". Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto072413.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:44pm EDT

Michael Covel talks to author, blogger and trader Steve Burns. In his second visit to the podcast Burns and Covel discuss several famed trading quotes containing wisdom from Ed Seykota, Richard Dennis, Tom Willis, Jesse Livermore, Amos Hostetter, Ben Stein, Bertrand Russell, T. Boone Pickens, and Larry Hite. Covel and Burns discuss risk management; position sizing; the magic of compounding; why individual trades have very little meaning; turning down the volume on your emotions in your trades; how your losses can be an education; concept and theory with regard to trend following; quantifying and capturing trends; "just trading the numbers"; greed and fear in the context of trends; the common attitudes and misconceptions of novice to trend following traders; trading against the market vs. trading against yourself; drawdowns, and the importance of studying the track records of the great traders; entry and exit strategies; the importance of starting "right" in every enterprise; the curse of laziness; ignoring the talking heads; why you don't need 20 screens on your desk to trade optimally; cutting your losses; the 1% rule; being blinded by the fundamentals; why if you diversify, control your risk, and go with the trend, it just has to work; I.Q. vs. emotional intelligence (E.Q.); and technology and long term trend following. Special Offer? Receive free DVD delivered to your home or office: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto071913.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:40am EDT

Are you a gimp? Like that classic scene from Pulp Fiction, the gimp is the average investor. The gimp is the investor that isn't in control, either by their own choice or choices put upon them. They are left to the machinations and maneuvers of forces. They don't think clearly; they don't know how to make a decision. Their decision is simple: sit tight and trust the powers that be. That's what Covel calls "Gimp Investing". If you don't want to be a gimp investor you have to figure out a way to think; a way to be skeptical. Skepticism is where it begins. If you can be a skeptic, then you have a chance. Covel talks about "digging" for information; taking the information that's given to you and sorting it out for truth. Covel moves on to the comparison between digging for information and digging for dinosaurs. This idea of thinking and seeing what the data shows--not just trusting the system and the stories--is exactly what skepticism is all about. Jack Horner, the paleontologist, is one of the greats in his field. He's figured out that dinosaurs built nests, lived in colonies, traveled in herds, and that their skulls changed shape from childhood into adulthood. Most of this was not common knowledge until Horner came around. Horner walked into it wide-eyed; he didn't have a plan. He said, "What can I deduce from this that makes the most sense?" Covel talks about how much this compares to his early experience with looking at the data of trend following traders. Trend following is the other side of the coin to gimp investing. It says if you're willing to take those small losses, you're almost invincible. As long as you can come back to play the next day and you can take those small losses, it puts you in the position where if the black swan comes in, you're prepared. When the gimp style stops working trend following gives you a chance to survive. Covel ends with a clip of Jack Horner. It's useful to hear how an expert goes on to learn. It's not linear learning; if you're trying to make chaos a straight line you're going to have a rough life. Attach Horner's words to good trend following trading and it all connects. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto071813.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:24pm EDT

"Give me a talking head that says which way is up, and I'll listen. Give me something I can believe in." That's what most people believe, even if it's a fantasy. Michael Covel discusses what makes a good teacher, and brings up one quote in particular: "A good teacher is one who will not give you an answer, but will allow you to find the answer in yourself. A teacher is a guide. He or she will show you that the answer is inside you, and that there is a right answer." Michael Covel discusses a John Hussman quote and explores "right" and "wrong" answers. Hussman's comments are not about trading; trend followers don't attempt to make the analysis that he does. Trend followers don't analyze how poor Bernanke's policies may or may not be; trend followers do not attempt to say whether Fed policies are good or bad. You don't make money trying to make those judgments. Covel discusses some of the comments he received after posting the Hussman quote, noting some supportive Fed comments. Of course, none of these views are relevant to trend following trading. But as a human being--as a thinking person--Covel discusses some Fed policies. Covel's point here is to get you to think: Do you just want to trust the system? With stock markets at all-time highs and interest rates low that everything is rosy and everyone has it figured out? With the S&P having collapsed 50% two times in the past fifteen years do you want to trust that it can't happen again? Do you want to trust that the DOW really can't go from 15,000 to 7,500? This is what Hussman is really getting at. Unlike a trend following trader Hussman is getting at why these machinations and maneuvers of the Fed really don't last. The beast can't be contained. So will you have a plan when all hell breaks loose? Nothing can contain market volatility; it always comes back. And sometimes markets don't recover: look at Japan. Covel asks, "do you want to trust the system, or do you want to have control of your life to some degree?" Bottom line, you can make  money when the central planning plans break down. Finally, Covel ends today's show with a long clip from Hugh Hendry that gets at the issue of what capitalism is today. Do you want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto071413.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:06am EDT

Wherever you go, gambling and the lottery is how most people think about making money. It is one of the biggest scams put upon the average guy. Most of it is run by the government, too. As Abba so eloquently put in their song "Money Money Money", that's what people dream about. But even when people open up and want to learn something new they often come to Michael Covel asking for the secrets. Covel's answers? There are no secrets; there is only knowledge that you do not yet possess. On today's show Covel launches into a clip from CNBC. Do trend following traders care what Bernanke thinks? Covel talks about propaganda; storylines in the news and whether these "arguments" are as real as they seem; and how real traders go with the flow. Ultimately it's about science; the science of what the market is doing. Covel reads a blog excerpt from Sean Carroll, and goes over a three-part definition of what makes up science to further comment on the CNBC clip. Covel just wants to make the point: you have to look through the haze to find out what's really going on. You have to break it down to science. The most successful trend following trader alive today, David Harding, is a scientist. Going through the whole process of thinking about trend following from a scientific perspective, Covel is showing you the light. Free DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto070713.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:14pm EDT

Michael Covel just released the first chapter and preface for the audiobook version of The Complete TurtleTrader in a recent podcast. When Covel heard that a Chicago reporter did a retrospective piece on the Turtles for WBEZ in Chicago, he decided to include the piece along with the afterword for the audiobook in today's podcast. The afterword wasn't in the first edition of the original book release due to some of the more "fun" details it included (was added in paperback release). There are some fantastic Turtle traders; many people who did really well. However, for some, it was weird to say the least. That doesn't mean you can't learn from them, and the TurtleTrader book afterword is a wealth of information and insight for anyone with even a passing interest in the Turtles. Do you want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto070213.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:31pm EDT

Today on the show Michael Covel interviews author Brendan Moynihan. Moynihan's co-authored book, "What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars" is a profile of trader Jim Paul along with Moynihan's ideas and thoughts on behavioral finance, risk management, and loss-taking strategies that all great traders act upon. Although released almost twenty years ago Moynihan's book contains timeless wisdom and principles that pertain to any number of issues surrounding us today. Covel and Moynihan talk about how Moynihan's background, the background of his subject, Jim Paul, and how the two came together in "What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars"; the psychology of loss and what we can learn from losing; the idea that you "just have to make the money" and why that can be a bad place to start as a motivator; personalizing loss; Paul's interactions with Rich Dennis; studying the contradictions of great traders, and how loss is the only topic they agree on; controlling how much you can lose; staying the course and the importance of not changing your strategy mid-stream; profit motive vs. prophet motive; the difference between investors, traders, speculators, bettors, and gamblers; the slippery slope of always wanting to be "right"; the five stages of internal loss; the danger of personalizing your success; the difference between discrete events vs. continuous events; the "uncle" point; why it's important to go broke at least once in your life; and the difference between emotions and emotionalism. Receive free DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto070113.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:19pm EDT

When you hear the Turtles (the rock band) you know that Michael Covel is going to discuss something Turtle-related. Today's podcast is a little different: it includes the preface and first chapter of the audiobook version of Covel's second book, "The Complete TurtleTrader". Covel talks about his plans for an upcoming Turtle research project. The Turtle rules are not a secret, and neither is the story. However, there are quite a few people out there looking for more information. For a topic like the Turtle story, you can't put all the flavor into 80,000 words alone. Covel discusses the wealth of extra information out there that he plans on including in this upcoming project. Would you like a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto062813.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:53pm EDT

Today's episode is an emotional rescue, so to speak. We don't think about it regularly when it comes to our money, but understanding our emotions is core to investing. Those emotions tie right into when you buy and when you sell. If you think you're going to become a successful trader without obliging the emotional side of the coin, you're wrong. First, Covel talks about the idea of multitasking, discussing an article called "Don't Multitask, Your Brain Will Thank You". Research shows that chronic multitasking can have long-term effects on your brain's functioning. Applied to trading what if instead of the chronic multitasking associated with fundamental analysis you could just focus on one thing? What if you could just reduce it all into something simple to digest? That's where trend following makes sense. Covel moves on and gives an example of a doctor friend who is confused with current markets. Related to that, Covel also discusses an article in the Wall Street Journal by Brenda Crane. There has to be a new way of looking at the investing landscape that can provide some sort of "emotional rescue". Covel moves on to another Wall Street Journal article titled "The Cold Truth About Emotional Investing" and the idea of the "fantastic object", as well as a clip from NPR on behavioral finance. So once you have this understanding that we're facing this multitasking hell, we need a way to decipher the hieroglyphics of the market, i.e. all the conflicting information. Covel's doctor friend is not the only one confused. Flow is one way to avoid the distraction, and Covel shares a classic Bruce Lee clip to illustrate the trend following mindset. Markets going down are only bad if you're only betting for them to go up. Go with the flow. Avoid distractions. Avoid multitasking. Then what? You need a process; you need a system to tell you when to buy and sell. And even if you get the monetary success, what are you going to do? Just buy stuff? Emotions come into the picture again...even when you're successful. Covel brings up an article called "Buy Buy Love" in the Economist about the most satisfying ways to spend your money. In the end, it's all about the tools you have in place to keep your emotions in check. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto062413.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:19am EDT

Dreams and fantasies, that's what's on Michael Covel's mind in Saigon today. The US stock markets have had a lot of volatility this past week. Bernanke might be moving on; there might be a replacement. QE might be ending. People are preparing for that or maybe not that. In reality, you can't predict anything. That's why Covel opens up today's podcast with an old heavy metal ode to fantasy. Can you believe what your eyes are showing you? Even if you have the perspective to see beyond the fantasy, do you have a tool to make money in these volatile markets? Of course, markets go through periods, cycles of volatility. It's nothing new. The key is, can you be detached? Can you view it as a game? Can you observe and tune it all out emotionally? It's that kind of mindset where you'll make the best decisions. Covel moves on to discuss a TED Talk called "We Can Predict The Next Financial Crisis" by Didier Sornette. Covel shares some beliefs with him, but as Covel opened up talking about dreams and fantasy, prediction is just the same: a fantasy. Even if you could predict the next financial crisis, we make the assumption that prediction equals profit. Even if you could predict, it doesn't necessarily mean you're going to profit. Profit comes from having a specific set of rules that tell you when to buy, when to sell, and how much to buy or sell. Covel agrees with some of what Sornette says, but is anybody making money with it? Sornette says that his predictions work, but it's not tied to real money? Sornette's hope is that never again will there be a financial crisis that will take us by surprise, yet does anyone buy that? Human nature will now end due to his predictions? Covel thinks it sounds like a bunch of bull, and explains why. The ability to predict tomorrow is a dream. It's not something you should be thinking about. It's not a useful endeavor for your life. Instead of trying to predict tomorrow why not just react to what happens with the trend following way of being? React to market movements, follow along, and be prepared for the bubble, the crisis, the unforeseen 100-year flood. Trend following is the best solution for that. Prediction is just a dream. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto062213.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:07pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with Dan Collins of the Dan Collins Report. Collins was the managing editor at Futures Magazine for over a decade, and has talked with many trend following traders. Recently, he put out an interesting post on his website commenting on an article called "Quant Hedge Funds Hit By US Bonds Sell-Off" which originally appeared in the Financial Times. Covel and Collins discuss the article and other subjects such as why trend followers are speculators rather than investors; why the Financial Times article showed a misunderstanding of trend following in general; headlines and what drives them; equity-centric writers; why long term trend following is disrespected and why there is a bias towards higher frequency, shorter term traders; why keeping it simple is a good strategy; fees in the managed futures and options industry; "volatility value trading"; "style drift"; why quality trend following traders under the umbrella of "managed futures" allow some lesser strategies to "free ride" on their success; different time horizons in trend following; and why trend following is declared "dead" so often. Collins also shares his views on several traders (Michael Clark, Bob Moss, Bill Dunn, Salem Abraham, and Bill Eckhardt) with short synopses of their styles and trading personalities. Collins provides a wealth of information and insight and some eye-openers along the way. Would you like a free trend following DVD? Go to: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto061513.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:48pm EDT

Michael Covel is a skeptic, and that's how he likes it. If you've listened to him more than once, it's probably because you relate. He wants you to show him the truth. He's agnostic to the market, too; he knows that price is the only truth. Covel starts off today's episode with a song from XTC that reflects that sort of agnosticism. In a continuing search for more truth, Covel spends the rest of the episode providing commentary on a speech called "God Is A Genius Because He Is A Sloth" by Hugh Hendry, who has become a fairly noteworthy hedge fund manager in recent years. Covel points out that Hendry doesn't appear to be a trend following trader; at least not in the classical sense. But his response to questions will make you think. Covel discusses elements of Hendry's speech that includes the impossibility of being able to predict the future; emotional intelligence; "not wanting to know"; why procrastination can kill you; disciplined curiosity; being agnostic to the market; being wary of "the brightest guy in the room"; and why falling in love with your analysis is not risk management. Hendry gets right at some of the root essence of being a trend following trader. Although he isn't a technical trend following trader by definition, he sure sounds like one. Would you like a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto061313.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:45am EDT

Michael Covel tells his friends in China and Vietnam, "At least you know where your government stands". They know what the deal is. Unfortunately, Covel's home country of America seems to only pretend that there are certain basic civil liberties; that you have a right to privacy. In the midst of the revelations that have occurred surrounding the NSA scandal, Covel discusses an article titled "Big Brother Is Really Watching Us". Covel talks about the extraordinary invasion of privacy we're experiencing and why people don't seem to care. If the revelation is that the United States government is basically spying on everybody, it says that things are extremely unpredictable. In Covel's world--the trend following world--you can benefit from the chaos. The extravaganza happening right now is just another example of why you can't trust the system. You have big brother tracking everything you do, so why do some people not seem to care? Covel explores, questioning whether there is a grand Stockholm Syndrome present in the US today. Covel surmises that the unpredictability today means that we'll have chaos and market movement. So how do you make money in this situation, where you can't trust Social Security or retirement programs, or what the Federal Reserve is going to do next? You need to be in an absolute returns mindset. The idea of going for the averages, mimicking the index, is going to keep you by definition average. In the midst of the chaos, trend following is a fantastic opportunity. Covel also comments on an article by Sam Jones which doesn't seem to understand that trend followers have losing months, which gives way to a conversation on media manipulation of trend following strategies. Covel doesn't care about the masses that are frightened; they're just going to stay frightened. He wants to help people that want to see it clearly for the first time and get motivated, or just to reinforce those out there that already acknowledge the chaos and still want to make money in this crazy environment. Don't trust that the man behind the curtain will take care of you. You can get ahead in an unpredictable world, and trend following is a great way to benefit from the chaos. Free trend following DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto061213.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:37pm EDT

Michael Covel plays a clip from investor and owner of the Dallas Mavericks, Mark Cuban. Cuban says some not-so-kind words about buy & hold, and notes several other trend following concepts along the way: don't just put positions on your account just to have them; take action when the market moves. Cuban's success doesn't mean we should blindly follow his wisdom, but shouldn't you be curious if someone like Cuban calls buy and hold a "crock of sh*t"? Covel often hears people say, "I can't be a trend following trader because I can't take the drawdowns". But at least with trend following you've got a chance to make a heck of a lot more money. Cuban also makes a great point regarding volatility. You can't make big profits without volatility. Jack Bogle of Vanguard fame came out squarely against Cuban, and Covel plays another clip. Covel critiques the clip and discusses "the average investor", exit strategies, and Bogle's view of buy & hold investing. When do you get out of a buy and hold strategy? What if you pick the wrong decade? What if, when you retire, it's the fall of 2008? Bogle says to expect two 50% drawdowns in the next ten years. You might see that in a trend following strategy too, but at least your upside makes it worth the investment. Bogle notes that all investing could be considered "buy & hold". However, the strategy he vouches for is essentially buy & hold with no exit strategy. If you want to go ahead and call trend following buy & hold with an exit strategy, more power to you. But which do you want? A system with an exit strategy, or a strategy where you're put in a position that makes you have to trust the system? A system where you have to trust that you'll exit at the exact right time? Covel isn't saying it'll be the exact right time for trend following either, but historically, trend following has a chance to make so much more money. So if there are mistakes to be made, if things don't happen at the exact right time for you, at least you've made that much more money along the way. This is your money. What else are you gonna do? Rely on Social Security? It basically guarantees to take your money and earn you less than inflation. That's what you're up against. You've only got one life. Put your kids on the right path. Break the cycle. Do something novel. Trend following is novel. It's fresh. Philosophically, psychologically, trend following makes a lot of sense. Take a chance on a strategy that isn't "average". Free trend following DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto060613.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:40pm EDT

Michael Covel talks with James Altucher in his second appearance on the podcast. Altucher's new book, "Choose Yourself!" was released on June 3; he believes so much in the message that if you can prove that you bought and read "Choose Yourself!", Altucher will pay you back for the cost of the book. Covel and Altucher discuss the new book and why all the rules we thought of as normal ("The banks will always finance my house", "The stock market will always go up", "The big corporations will always hire me", "If I have a college degree, there will always be a job for me") are imaginary. Covel and Altucher also discuss why a good trader trades their own self first, and the importance of choosing yourself and making a consistent inner life; the need to become an entrepreneur and artist in today's climate, and why you might be looking down the barrel of a career in temp staffing if you don't; the collapse of the middle class and 9-5 "jobs" as we know them; the importance of doing the un-obvious; why you're only as valuable as your network; the need to exercise your idea muscle; sunk costs and opportunity costs; breaking the cycle of consumerism, buying memories and not buying objects; commitment bias; finding a career at 27, Stan Lee of Marvel Comics, endurance, and the importance of doing something for yourself today; David Gilmour of Fiji Water and the benefits of adventure; medication, lifestyle choices, and the necessity of good sleep hygiene; and the need to be an artist where your life is the canvas. Diversity! Free DVD: trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto060313.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:26pm EDT

Michael Covel goes straight for the jugular of organized education on today's podcast. Organized education is broken and the typical university experience is a fraud. Tenured professors make a ton of money, and students are stuck with hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt. The whole situation is vicious, and a student's best hope for a steady job after school is to serve lattes. Millions of people think that if they go and sit through classes at a university for four years, listen to professors who have never made an entrepreneurial dime in their life, that they'll be in a better position to make money. Covel discusses an essay found on oftwominds.com (http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay13/genX5-13.html) about one specific generation of college graduates. People don't want to talk about this, but the moment the US stock market takes a prolonged dip, that's when the dam will break. Are there alternatives? Yes. With access to the internet, we're in a better place than ever before to educate ourselves. Covel further illustrates his view with excerpts: The first is from entrepreneur David Gilmour, who started Fiji water, extolling the virtues of travel. Next, Covel plays a clip of a TED talk from Ken Robinson, who talks about the connection between education and curiosity--which is the true engine of learning--and the difference between education and learning. Covel notes that it's not about following the rules; it's not about doing what you're told. Automation is eliminating so many blue and white-collar jobs so quickly, there's no hanging on anymore. So where does that leave the college student? The final excerpt comes from Angela Lee Duckworth, who talks about what she thinks the real key to success is: grit. Passion and perseverance for long-term goals; stamina. Sticking with your future, day in, day out. Not just for the week or for the month, but for the rest of your life. Duckworth says that those with grit look at life like a marathon and not a sprint. Covel notes that the idea of grit works perfectly with trend following: it's a marathon. There are ups and downs, but over the long haul trend following grit delivers a healthy mind as well as a healthy wallet. Free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto052713.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:37am EDT

Today on the podcast Michael Covel talks about the idea of resilience and the ability to operate with variability as the norm. There's going to be volatility and you can't make it go away; to operate with variability as the norm is to be a trend following trader. If you try and make it go away, you might end up falling with the next 50% drop in the S&P killing your account. Because it will happen. There will be another major equity drop. There will be the same panics that we saw in 2000 and 2002, the fall of 2008, and October of 1987. Most people will lose 50% of their net worth because they don't have a strategy that deals with variability. The 100-year flood doesn't happen every 100 years; it happens every 2-3 years. Covel moves into a clip with David Harding of Winton Capital Management and quotes author Nassim Taleb about surviving when the black swan flies in. It's the difference between taking a punch when you're prepared for it or being caught off-guard with a punch to the gut when you least expect it. Those that simply buy and hold and put their trust into the government and the Federal Reserve? They're the ones getting a punch to the gut that they don't see coming. Next, Covel moves into another clip from Michael Lewis (author of "Liar's Poker" and "Moneyball") about what was behind "Moneyball" and how rather than being a story about baseball it is about misinterpreting value and misappraisal. Building off what David Harding said, Lewis also talks about the idea of measuring, counting, and using statistics to make good judgments. What David Harding and Michael Lewis are getting at is not generally accepted. Most aren't paying attention. Covel shares a quote from a Stanford psychologist: "A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point." In many ways, that's what Covel feels like when he's trying to get the ideas of trend following across; that's what he's up against. He's also up against the buy & hold mutual fund industry, who love fees. They have no desire to tell their clients about trend following strategies, how to look at the world from a statistical perspective, or how to prepare yourself for the next black swan. Covel is fully aware of the controversial nature of his views and the idea of trend following in general, and he closes by reading a polemic and playing a clip from author Christopher Hitchens, as well as another king of controversy: Glenn Danzig. Where else do you find such diversity on a podcast about making money? Free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto052113.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:36pm EDT

Michael Covel, author of Trend Following, The Complete TurtleTrader, The Little Book of Trading, and Trend Commandments, introduces his podcast--Trend Following with Michael Covel. This is the first episode, the starting introduction, of the podcast. Want to get started in your trend following understanding? Receive a free trend following course to your home or office: www.trendfollowing.com/ecourse.

Direct download: 123.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT

Michael Covel talks to Jim Woods. Woods is a financial journalist with Trader's Reserve. His book "The Wealth Shield, A Wealth Management Guide: How to Invest and Protect Your Money from Stock Market Crashes, Financial Crisis and Global Economic Collapses" is available now. His aim is to make sure you're prepared for whatever black swan might come your way. Covel talks to Woods not to discuss how to find absolute returns, but to talk about the market, the economy, and uncertainty; to talk about the idea that things don't always don't go up. How do you think about the options and the possibilities of the market, and how do you think about what might go wrong? Covel and Woods talk about zero interest rate policy, or "ZIRP", and why normal people are taking on more risk to get the same returns; if another 50% meltdown happened in the S&P while rates were at zero, what might the chain reaction be? Would you be prepared trading wise for that?; technology taking away the need for human capital; the power structure in Washington; the societal implications of ZIRP; what the stock market might do if interests rates went up; the concept of "blowback"; the importance of having a plan; protecting yourself, and the eventuality mindset; the US as a "prison" banking system; and the importance of investing in other currencies for beyond trading reasons. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto051213.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:55am EDT

Michael Covel speaks with Jason Russell, the President and CIO of Acorn Global Investments in Canada. Russell brings a unique perspective to the show with a very clear strategy on how his firm makes money for their clients. Covel and Russell discuss Russell's background and how he came to form Acorn Global Investments; Russell's strategy for Acorn and "the baker analogy"; the idea of "winners stay, losers go"; showing his investors every position that Russell has; how the terms "commodity trading adviser", "trend follower", "quantitative trading" don't exactly describe what many traders do; Ed Seykota and the "trading tribe"; letting go of "why" and simply riding out trends; where strategies like Russell's fit in the context of a portfolio; the importance of delivering uncorrelated results to the S&P 500; drawdowns and the psychological effect of going through one alone, uncorrelated to other markets; and how there's nothing more important than risk management. More info on trend following? Receive the free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto051013.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:59pm EDT

There's no better lyric than "Life of Illusion" by Joe Walsh to describe the most recent trading performance that was reported by J.P. Morgan. In the first quarter they were profitable on 63 out of 63 trading days. Think you can develop a trading strategy that can compete with J.P. Morgan? You can't. What J.P. Morgan has done is not trading performance; it's an incestuous union between them, the United States government and the Federal Reserve. You don't make money 63 out of 63 days trading. That's not trading; it's a gift. Of course, if you have a position in J.P. Morgan, that's great; ride the trend. But what's unfortunate is that we're in the middle of a societal tsunami on Wall Street that makes it very difficult for the average person to know what's real. To the average person that wants to learn about trading, J.P. Morgan's performance looks like a noble goal. Unfortunately, this level of making money has nothing to do with a trading strategy. It has everything to do with being in a symbiotic union with the government and the Federal Reserve. It's not trading, it's taking. Can you replicate a trading strategy where you get the same advantages that J.P. Morgan does? And what happens when the black swan flies in? Covel goes on to explain comparing the performance records of Bill Dunn to J.P. Morgan. When these black swan events happen, strategies like Bill Dunn's excel, and fundamental strategies don't. It's that simple. You're left with the idea of worshiping a false idol (JP Morgan) or the Bill Dunn strategy that doesn't make money every day, but in the long haul makes more money and protects you when the tsunami hits. Covel closes by talking about the high priest himself, "Venus", the man from Omaha. Even though his fourth quarter profit rose 49% on gains tied to derivatives--derivatives that he once called "weapons of mass destruction"--it's no matter to his worshipers. Covel gives him all the credit in the world for amassing his great fortune; he's one of the greatest capitalists of all time. However, it's the disingenuous, manipulative nonsense of telling people not to trade derivatives but then doing it himself that really gets to Covel. Venus pretends that his words don't matter. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto050913.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:57pm EDT

Michael Covel talks about getting "picked" on today's episode of the podcast. Starting off with Blind Melon's "No Rain" Covel sets the groundwork for what's inspiring him today. This isn't a trading specific podcast today, at least for those of you out there that think that trading psychology and trading philosophy are irrelevant. Covel meets people all the time looking for the "secret sauce". Today, you aren't going to get the secret sauce; or at least the secret as you perceive it to be. Inspired by Seth Godin's recent thoughts on being picked Covel talks about Marc Maron, a comedian who recently has found success through his own podcast. Covel talks about how Maron wasn't picked through traditional means: Meeting with Lorne Michaels of Saturday Night Live, Maron's meeting went sideways, he was rejected, and he ultimately had to carve out his own path. Maron started a podcast which became viral, and now even though Lorne Michaels did not pick Marc Maron, Maron sits with his own destiny in front of him, chosen by him. All because he looked at the world slightly differently. Today, he enjoys massive success through an IFC television show, a new book, and a top rated podcast all because of setting out on his own path. Circumstances forced him to do this, but he learned that being picked was not the end all be all. Covel relates this back to his audience: you weren't picked for the trading job, you weren't picked for the investment banking team, and you're already psyching yourself out. A lot of people do this: they don't get picked and then complain for the rest of their lives and essentially quit. If you don't see the relevance in picking yourself to success in trading, you might not ever see it. Godin received complaints through his article on Marc Maron and Covel has received similar complaints which he retells here in the podcast. Some people want to do specific things. Doing "this" requires being picked: "I want to play the flute in this particular orchestra", "I want to trade for Goldman Sachs". At the end of it all, there is a great Buddhist thought: "Live like a mighty river". A mighty river flows. A mighty river does not complain. A mighty river gets it done. Covel talks about his own experience of not being "picked" for CNBC. They were looking for Jim Cramer, Jr. Covel went into the meeting with his eyes wide open and was looking to get the experience to pass along to you today that CNBC, behind the scenes, is a farce. Covel wanted to see behind the scenes for himself, and he got that opportunity being interviewed for CNBC. Covel wasn't picked by CNBC, but they weren't picked by Covel either. That's the attitude to have. Covel concludes with a recent story about being picked that he experienced himself in Thailand, and with what Godin says in his blog post: The problem is that it's frightening to pick yourself, Godin says. "It's far easier to put your future into someone else's hands than it is to slog your way forward, owning the results as you go." Free trend following DVD? Go to http://www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto050413.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:13pm EDT

In his first podcast back from China Michael Covel talks about trend following in the context of The Middle Kingdom. Through five flights, four cities, untold hotel rooms, two speeches before crowds of 500 people, and over a dozen presentations in front of some of China's largest hedge funds, Covel brings the wisdom gained through his excursion back to his podcast audience. First, he responds to a reader from China who heard about one of Covel's presentations, and the criticism that Covel didn't give the "secret sauce" to win at trend following. Richard Dennis was famous for saying that he could publish his rules in the newspaper and nobody would follow them, and Covel could explain exactly how to be a trend follower and it'd go over many heads. So it's not surprising that in a crowd of 500 some would have their expectations of learning about some kind of "secret sauce" not met. Covel isn't trying to impress that person, and they aren't the type of person that would ever get it anyway. They're looking for the shortcut-- the angle, the quick fix. If you have Covel speak to your group, after fifteen years of his life spent researching the topic and putting together the best educational materials for new and experienced traders alike, if your first thought is "you didn't give me the secret sauce", it might not be for you. But Covel did reach a great many people, and he got a great deal of excellent feedback. He discusses the typical Chinese investor mindset and what got them to take a second look at trend following. Covel also waxes on the idea of trust in China, the parallels to America, and how the acceptance of "the new" in China might go down easier than elsewhere. Next, Covel adds some lessons to the overall trend following education. Covel's journey shows that an outsider can get to be an insider. Unfortunately, one of the common questions posed to Covel by the media in China was to ask if any average person could succeed in trend following. Covel discusses how this is a defeatist question. If you consider yourself average: quit now. Suitability, however, is something different. Is trend following, or investing in general, suitable for everyone? If you don't have the education, it might not be. Covel also gives some examples from his journey that help to put trend following in context. Covel notes a bit of censorship in his presentations via the Chinese regulatory committees. One slide was not allowed in his presentation. What was that slide? Covel explains. Also, Covel recently discussed Ray Dalio at Bridgewater, the biggest hedge fund on the planet. Covel reads a letter from a listener that gives anecdotal evidence about how Dalio could be a closet trend follower. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto050313.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:40am EDT

Charles Faulkner visits the podcast for his third on-air conversation with Michael Covel--a conversation that started while Covel was recently in Malaysia and finished while he was in Vietnam. Faulkner is an author, trader, and international expert on modeling the knowledge and performance of exceptional individuals. He was originally featured in "The New Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager. Faulkner has a new book coming out this fall called "Higher Level Trading: The Five Stages To Trading and Investor Mastery". In their free-flowing conversation Faulkner and Covel cover wide territory. Covel and Faulkner discuss Faulkner's thoughts about human behavior and the investor's psyche. This brings the conversation to the idea that the world is getting more complex, and the increase of "magical thinking" in response. Covel and Faulkner move on to discuss further topics such as how Faulkner came to put together his newest book, "Higher Level Trading", and the qualitative differences between the five levels of experience, knowledge, and understanding; developing the different levels of thinking that lead to expertise, and the correct path to take to developing these skills; preparation, effort, "doing the work", and the right way to jump into investing; some of the commonalities between those profiled in the "New Market Wizards" book; Ed Seykota's recent statements on day trading; behavioral economics; the idea that the less you know about something the more convinced you are that it is true--and how a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing; "perfection seekers", variation, and letting perfection slow you down; outliers and the potential to make a change in your thinking; efficient markets, Vernon Smith, and bubbles; imagery, stories, prediction, and the skill of conceiving multiple scenarios; reducing information, and vetting your inputs to find out what information is important and what isn't; and why we are most influenced by parts of our environment that we are unaware of. Free DVD? Go to www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto041313.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:30pm EDT

Michael Covel interviews trader and original student of the first Turtle class, Jerry Parker. In 1983, Parker was accepted into the Turtle Program, a select investment training program developed by successful Chicago portfolio manager Richard Dennis. He appears in Covel's "The Complete TurtleTrader" and has been the most successful TurtleTrader. Parker founded Chesapeake Capital Corporation, a global investment manager headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, in 1988. Chesapeake provides investment and portfolio management services to both private and institutional investors worldwide. Covel talks to Parker about the mistake of combining different strategies with trend following, and the importance of having a concentrated strategy that you can rely on; how discretionary moves can get in the way of your system, and "systematized discretion"; the psychological effect of following a trend following strategy for decades; the idea of going for positive expected value over what's least risky; why Parker doesn't like to use the term "managed futures", and why it doesn't really tell the story of trend followers; trend followers performing well at different points in time compared to long-only; using trend following as another strategy for investors who only invest through a long-only value-based system; the importance of not letting your views on politics and society influence your trading, and maintaining a systematic and disciplined approach; the growth of news media since 1984, information overflow, limiting your variables, and using price as your primary indicator; how Parker has learned over the years to deal with drawdowns, loving your losses, and the importance the Turtle program played in his education on drawdowns; why governments are the ultimate counter-trend traders; why buy and hold is not a good place to be even if people are saying it's turned around; Parker's stock-only trend following program, and why the diversified program will do better than the stock-only system; and leverage as a tool. Enjoy! Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto040913.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:24am EDT

Is Michael Covel on vacation or a journey? Covel opens up today's monologue distinguishing between the two by answering a piece of listener mail. Covel gives credit to Tim Ferris and the four hour work week mentality, and discusses his ability to work from abroad and travel to a different country every two weeks. Next, Covel answers a piece of listener mail regarding his recent comments on day traders. Covel just gives his view. He's done his homework, done the research, and put the proof out there. It's not just Covel pontificating only about how the world should be, but trying to be objective. Day trading track records don't appear to exist, while trend following has a track record that's available for anyone to see in the back of Covel's books. Tons of people out there imagine that day trading is a legitimate way to operate, but there's just no proof that it works. Next, Covel reads another piece of mail talking about poor returns of hedge funds in the first quarter, and how certain hedge fund managers had picked the wrong direction. Covel gives another Seykota quote on the matter: "Artful politicians and religious leaders carefully keep their promises in the future, and their tithing and taxation in the now." Covel adds: Investing gurus are part of that list because investing gurus all want to be paid right now. Covel also talks about outlier events. Are you prepared for an outlier event? Whether a crazy North Korean dictator drops a nuke, whether one of the central bank policies across the world don't work as expected, or something else? What if the prescribed plan doesn't work? That's where fundamentals break down and when they do you need a plan. There's a great video that Covel posted recently by Dr. Vernon Smith stating that standard econometric models were not explaining what was happening in the real world. They weren't explaining bubbles, and not until Dr. Smith started studying the psychology of how people behave did he finally start to understand what was going on. Are you going to believe that Vernon Smith and Daniel Kahneman had figured something out about the human psyche when it comes to markets and money, or are you going to trust that government agencies have figured it out and are going to manage it all for you perfectly? If you do trust Dr. Smith, as Covel highly recommends, how are you going to prepare for the next event? Do you really think there's a chance that the S&P will only go up, and will never drop by 50% again? Get a strategy to help you out when there's an outlier move. That's the key. Covel moves on and talks about his time so far in Vietnam, including an all female motorbike tour, avoiding getting run over crossing busy traffic circles, and an incredible Vietnamese dancer. Are the communists doing better capitalism better? The question of the day! Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto040713.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:08pm EDT

Michael Covel comes to today from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam after spending several weeks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and a few days in Singapore. Covel talks about some of his experiences is Singapore and Vietnam, but first he shares a quote from legendary trend following trader Ed Seykota regarding day trading: "Traders use it medicinally as distraction from deeper issues." Seykota has a remarkable ability to take complicated thoughts and reduce them down to only a few words, holding a mirror up to you and your life in the process. Covel talks about the "screen watchers" who have to look at their trades all day long and questions their performance. Where are all the day traders' performance data? They simply don't exist with only a few exceptions for big traders like Steve Cohen. Take that and compare it to trend following which has the performance data to prove its success. Without that data Covel's "Trend Following" book would have simply been opinion with no foundation. Covel digs deeper into the Seykota quote and discusses the core issues of what he's really talking about: is day trading simply the answer to your other problems? It's very similar to the lottery mentality regardless of how people try and talk it up: there's a very small chance of you winning big in the end. Covel also recounts some of his experiences abroad and compares it to the situation in America today. Compared to Singapore, America simply can't compete with what they are able to get done. Singapore has great economic freedom and there's a wide desire there to make money--not just live off the State nipple. Economic freedom and the desire to make money, however crass, leads to a better life. Covel mentions a book he's currently reading about how the Russian oligarchs came to power and made their billions. It's really rooted in the system that was the old Soviet Union system: the state-run economy and taking advatnage of that. Everything was run by the state: the banks, the delivery of bread, the production of produce, etc. Covel brings it up because he's currently in Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). Today, there's nothing that feels remotely communist to Covel. He saw a couple of flags on some government buildings, but that's about it. Instead, it's mostly commerce and entrepreneurs. There's an energy there and people are clearly ready to make something happen. Ultimately, this brings Covel back to America. America does not have the ability to build a Singapore right now. Covel discusses the voting process and whether it's better to have a system where you know you don't have certain rights and freedoms (like Vietnam) or to have a system that gives you those rights and freedoms, but it's more akin to a fantasy. He's not some angry ex-pat: Covel simply wants to point out that the American system was founded on pure and noble ideals, but the bureaucracy has gotten so big and so unwieldy that the average vote makes no difference. Even a change in political leadership doesn't make a difference, and those on the right and left have more in common than not in common. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to http://www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto040313.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:01pm EDT

Michael Covel presents a series of great audio clips rather than his normal monologue or interview today on the podcast. Most of these are clips that Covel hasn't played on a podcast before, and they all loosely connect around the idea of risk, the unexpected, and black swans. First up, Covel plays a clip from Warren Buffett talking about Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that almost took the system down in the summer of 1998 (a huge winning time for trend followers). Covel follows it up with two clips from David Harding of Winton Capital Management--one of the top trend following traders of all time--talking about the lack of data on history's greatest manias, crashes and panics; a second clip of Harding talking about the difference between today's crashes and panics and ones that have happened over the past century; author Peter Bernstein (whose book, "Against the Gods", Covel calls a must-read book on risk); Dr. Vernon Smith, who appeared in Covel's film, "Broke: The New American Dream", talking to ReasonTV; Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan". Finally, Covel ends with a clip of Ben Bernanke walking down the street. Somebody asks him about Nassim Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan". You would think that after we've just listened to all of these pragmatic voices lay the foundation for why you have to know there's always going to be another black swan to arrive, Bernanke completely dismisses it and says he doesn't read Taleb's work. Isn't it good to know that Bernanke, the man who is control of the Fed, doesn't even pay attention? All of these great voices that Covel has played today show how imperitive it is to prepare yourself for the next black swan; the next unknown event. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to http://www.trendfollowing.com/win

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto032813.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:36pm EDT

Trend following wisdom with the most inspiring Market Wizard Ed Seykota.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto032613.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:46pm EDT

Ep. 111: Nick Radge Interview #2 with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel talks to Nick Radge in his second visit to the podcast. Radge operates The Chartist (www.thechartist.com.au) and is the author of the book "Unholy Grails". Radge lived in Singapore for two years and he and Covel talk about their shared experiences traveling in Southeast Asia. Covel brings up the lack of familiarity with trend following when giving presentations in Southeast Asia and how, just like in the US and Europe, 99% of the people out there really don't understand what constitutes a real trend following strategy. Radge and Covel break it down to the basics and use Apple as an example of how a trend following trader might look at one particular example. In Apple's case it's possible to see 700 as an anchor and think that although it's at 450 now, it's got to go back up. It's easy to take the value investing perspective and think that you're buying a quality stock on discount. However, there's one core thing that Radge stresses people have to understand is the undeniable truth: every company that goes bankrupt exhibits the exact same traits. They all trend down in a sustained manner; they don't just open and go bankrupt on one day. A company trends down over a sustained amount of time and eventually goes bankrupt. Of course, Radge isn't saying that Apple is going to go bankrupt; he simply says to pay attention and not get anchored to a higher price. Warren Buffet's idea of buying a good company on sale doesn't apply because he's obviously looking at things that people can't or won't pay attention to-- and his performance can't be replicated. Anchoring yourself to a price is dangerous, and Covel and Radge break down the idea of "anchoring" even further. Radge defines it as when an investment has reached a particular level that an investor has become emotionally attached to and has future expectations of the investment reaching past performance peaks. A trend follower would follow a stock that is at least moving in the right direction to start. Covel and Radge further discuss education, how the trend following world is foreign to many people who have been educated in the "right" places, and how the idea of taking losses and being incorrect in your position seem to be counterintuitive to them; the importance of drawing distinctions between traditional value investing and alternative systems like trend following; how the name of the game for many fund managers is not necessarily performance but funds under management; playing the game of mathematics vs. playing the game of picking the right stocks; why the US stock market has gone straight up despite all the fear going on elsewhere in the world, and why you shouldn't "fight the tape"; closet trend followers; why price can't be faked (and how sentiment plays into the picture); trade restrictions, cultural attitudes, and the importance of being able to step out of the crowd; why individuals have an advantage over fund managers; the value of understanding trend following even when you don't actually use it as a strategy; spotting 'trends', how you can't spot a trend until it's started or until it's over, and using hitchhiking as an analogy for trading; how trend following is useful when outlier events and black swans appear; using rules and strategies to fight fear; the difficulty of using Warren Buffett as an example, and the problems the arise when managing larger amounts of money; and Radge's thoughts on being an entrepreneur. Dig in! Free DVD? www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto031913nickradge2.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:26pm EDT

Ep. 110: You Can't Call The Top with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel has done a podcast on Apple before, but today's podcast focuses on the media coverage surrounding people calling the top. Covel just saw an interesting article called "Following a Herd of Bulls on Apple" by James Stewart. Covel reads through the article and gives his commentary and notes that the premise of the article is disingenuous at best and dishonest at worst. The main subjects of Covel's criticism are the people that they bring on to criticize the Wall Street analysts. Covel isn't here to defend the Wall Street analysts--anyone that makes a buy or sell decision based on a report from a Wall Street analyst after looking at the last 20 years of Wall Street history isn't doing their homework. The "funny" part of the article, Covel says, lies in the people who were quoted in the article--and the author. Jim Stewart has been around Wall Street for a long time. Did he just dial this piece in? Stewart knew it was impossible to predict Apple's top. Yet, for this article, they find one guy out there who pegged the top. And we're all supposed to look at this guy as some sort of miracle worker? You don't pick the top. People who pick tops like Apple at 700 are lucky. It's not a skill. If you can only find one guy to do it, you've found the lucky survivor, and Jim Stewart built the article around him. Covel saves the most ire for the professors quoted in the article. The men who teach that markets are efficient. The ones who have the basics of finance wrong and continue to push this nonsense to their students: "Markets are efficient". The big scam is that the very people out there writing Wall Street research probably sat through that very professor's class. Wall Street is populated with people who obtained this sort of education. One other thing Covel covers is momentum: a great way to have traded Apple is through a momentum trend following style. A momentum trend following style wouldn't have had you getting in at the bottom or out at the top. All you can hope for is capturing the the middle meat of the trend. The trend following way doesn't require you to be worried whether wall street analysts are right or wrong; doesn't require you to be worried whether or not Jim Stewart had an agenda; or whether a Harvard university professor had conflicts of interest himself. Covel only brings it up to make a point and to sharpen the divide between these very different ways of looking at the world. On one side you have all the university nonsense; the efficient market hypothesis; Wall Street giving you buy/sell/hold decisions; and adulation for the one guy that picked the top. On the other side, you have the trend following traders who know that absolutely all of that is junk. Make your life simpler. Walk away from the nonsense and stick to the other side of that divide. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto031713.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:59pm EDT

Ep. 109: Richard Russell and Dow Theory with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel starts with an interesting blogpost from a reader quoting Dow theorist Richard Russell. Covel discusses his thoughts on Russell, noting that he saw him speak in San Diego and followed his writings some in 2009-10. Here's the thing: Russell got it all wrong at the time. He was calling for the end of the world and the Dow has gone up--way up. Russell isn't a trend following trader; he was using subjective discretionary technical views on what he thought the markets were doing, would do, and what the government or Fed might do or was doing wrong. Covel shares many of Russell's views about the economy and the Fed; however, his way of thinking about the markets in 2009 and 2010 was the kind of predictive technical analysis that Covel has rallied so much against in recent podcast episodes. Bottom line, if the market's up, you're long; if the market's down, you're short. Trend following is not Elliott Wave, it's not Dow Theory, it's not Gann, it's not anything Tom DeMark is describing. It's price action based and that's it. Covel goes onto discuss the gentleman's blogpost in further detail, and notes how taking hold of data such as trading volume and confirming the Dow and transports together are almost fundamental-like in their approach. From a trend following perspective, all of this is irrelevant. The gentleman's blogpost ends with the phrase the pressure in the market is building, and we may be watching the beginning of the most spectacular stock market blowoff ever. Just before an even more astonishing decline." The operative phrase there is "may be": if you hear a sentence like that, it's not trend following. Covel goes on to discuss more local Malaysian food, Yoga, getting the tar beat out of him in a Thai massage, General Patton, and invites listeners to write in with questions about predictive vs. reactive technical analysis. Covel ends with a clip from famed basketball coach John Wooden at UCLA. He had a brilliant way about himself, inspired many, and Covel notes how Wooden got down into the nitty gritty in coaching--even teaching players how to properly put their socks on so they didn't get blisters. Free DVD? www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto031513.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:55pm EDT

Today on the podcast Covel gives us a peek into the presentations he's been giving and the responses of audiences abroad. Since February 25th he has been in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). He's given 23 presentations--anywhere from 60 to 90 minutes long--spread over 4 cities. Covel speaks to us today from Kuala Lumpur where he was only supposed to stay for two days. However, Covel was so taken by the city that he decided to stay for three or four weeks. Covel weighs in on the food, the culture, and the experiences surrounding his recent travels before getting into the kind of presentations he has been giving abroad and the investment style of the people to whom he has been speaking. Unsurprisingly, many of the largest fund managers in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur are unfamiliar with trend following; they have the a similar understanding of many in America and Europe. Most of the fund managers Covel sat down with were long-only, fundamental and value-based. Perhaps they used some predictive technical indicators on top, but that was it. Covel would go through the big picture differences between trend following and what his audience was doing. While most of these investors were unlikely to wholly adopt trend following, if you can bring a trend following strategy in-house that produces returns at a different point in time than your typical fundamental value returns--that's extremely useful information. Covel also discussed behavioral finance aspects, the idea of the black swan, and outlier move issues. Ultimately, it's about this scenario: you wake up tomorrow and you're on a desert island. You've got nothing except the closing price of the 75 most liquid global markets (which somehow magically appear in the sand), and a phone to your broker to make the trades. You have nothing else--no Bloomberg, no Wall Street Journal, no CNBC. Can you look at that data--and only that data--over time, and figure out a way to make money? That's the challenge. Can you find a positive mathematical edge in that stew of data from all those different markets? You don't even need to know the names of the markets you're trading. All you need are the prices. Can you find a positive mathematical edge in the great spirit of Ed Thorp and "Beat The Dealer"? That is the rallying cry of the trend following world--the desert island trading scenario. Even if someone elected not to make an allocation to a trend following firm (or did not want to trade as a trend follower themselves) Covel invited them to create a model portfolio. That way, you can at least know when trend following is doing well. That piece of information can be a useful piece of fundamental data for your fundamental trading shop. Some criticisms? The idea that Covel is not revealing the "secret sauce", holding back, or not revealing the "new thing". You have to ask yourself: Can you look at a trend following system? Test it? Look at professional trend following managers and see how they have performed? Compare it all? And believe in it? Or do you allow yourself to be distracted by other peoples' comments? Distracted by society? Ultimately that might be the big picture issue that Covel is seeing in his journey. Distraction kills focus. Free DVD? www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto031413.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:11pm EDT

Michael Covel starts off the podcast with two famous film speeches: one that you've probably heard and one that perhaps only those with some Wall Street experience may be familiar with. Covel notes that this is how most young men begin their understanding of Wall Street: through the brokerage lens (hence the 2nd speech). It's how Covel first understood it, too: through the lens of Liar's Poker and Salomon Brothers. The idea is that if you work for this big investment bank and become a broker, you can make yourself a fortune. And you can call yourself a trader. But, being a broker doesn't make you a trader. You have to put your time in and you have to allow yourself to be in learning mode. Can you put off all the distractions and focus on the education of learning a trend following system and trend following psychology? Or do you operate under society's rule that if you lift a finger someone has to pay you first? If you have the opportunity to learn trend following trading don't worry about the silly stuff: how much time it will take, how much money you'll have to spend, etc. As long as you don't go broke it will be fine. The important thing is taking the proper amount of time and effort to prepare. In stark contrast to the earlier clips Covel transitions into playing and analyzing several excerpts from legendary trend following traders Bill Dunn, Jerry Parker and David Harding. These excerpts are not the Hollywood speeches: they're real, raw and full of priceless trend following insights. Covel ends with a quote by Harding: "We know that we know almost nothing, but the almost nothing we know isn't completely nothing and we only bet on that." We all know the price action; we know whether a market is moving up or down. We can follow that flow. If you can follow the flow of a market either up or down you've got a chance. Don't try and predict tomorrow, it's impossible. Take what you do know for sure and look for a way to use it and be prepared for when the next black swan swoops in, the next big event appears suddenly. As Bruce Lee says: "Be water, my friend." DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto030213.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:27pm EDT

Michael Covel opens up today's podcast by playing an interview with freelance journalist and author Helaine Olen from "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart". Olen is there to promote her book, "Pound Foolish: Exposing The Dark Side Of The Personal Finance Industry". Olen notes that how when those in the "financial entertainment" business such as Suze Orman and Jim Cramer gives stock picks, the stock goes up. However, it almost always falls back down several weeks later. To that end, Olen recommends immediately shorting anything Jim Cramer mentions as a buy. However, towards the end, the interview takes a different tone as Stewart mentions that he doesn't understand "why we don't value work more and why investment has become so valued". Covel kicks into gear and comments on the interview, first noting that he's a fan of Stewart, but also pointing out the problematic attitude Stewart takes. There was something distinctly missing from Stewart's interview with Olen: personal responsibility and how the world really works. The search for security, especially in your investments, is fool's gold. But why did Covel play this clip? It's a lead into today's topic: how the world really works. Covel talks about Google clinging onto it's cash waiting for the right opportunity. Google is waiting for the good bet. Their hand is not being forced and they don't care what you think about them. So, Google can wait, but can you? They know the right move will come, and they know they have to have the capital when it does. So in a sense, Google is acting like a trend following trader. That's trend following 101. You have to wait for the home run. So what causes us not to wait? What screws us up? Covel plays a clip from Keith Chen to illustrate why in which he about how language can have an effect on your ability to save money. Covel comments on the clip, noting how being a trend following trader involves reacting to right now. You're not dealing with tomorrow. All you're dealing with is the here and now. Looking at the machinations of American investors through Chen's speech, Covel notes how we all want to deal with the non-existent future, but if you want to step outside of that bubble, it's up to you. It's your personal responsibility. Free trend following DVD? Visit www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto030113.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:37pm EDT

Michael Covel comes to us with his first podcast in in China, dedicating today's episode to the the city of Hong Kong. Having just arrived in Hong Kong from Tokyo, Covel ruminates on the differences between the two places. Tokyo is a fantastic, organized, and civilized place. Covel discusses the feel of the city, especially loving green tea vending machines every hundred feet giving hot or cold tea perfectly every time. However, he notes a somewhat slow pace which is a direct contrast to the speed of Hong Kong. Hong Kong is on fire, and everybody is there trying to make things happen. You don't have to like it-- and it does have some rough edges-- but it's alive. It's a giant melting pot with a pulsating energy in the air of people making things happen. Covel also details the events surrounding the presentation he gave for CLSA at the Hyatt in Roppongi, Tokyo. Following Covel's presentation, Dr. Marc Faber spoke. Faber and Covel share a view that all of the misadventures happening in society today will eventually end badly. If you're going to try and trade all this uncertainty you'd better have a timing indicator. Trend Following has a timing indicator built in: price action. You'll never get in at the very bottom and you'll never get out at the very top, but you'll get out alive and with a profit. Covel shares a quote from Seth Godin on that subject and discusses alternatives to staying glued to the television. Is it really fun staying glued to the screen watching blips go by? Or do you do it because you think that's how you make money? Fortunately, you don't need to be worried what high frequency trading is doing and you don't need to be worried about the next Fed announcement. Consider the alternative: you want to be ready when markets move in larger trending directions and get aboard the trends that have much lengthier time horizons than fifteen seconds. You want to be prepared for when the next black swan swoops in. If you put the fifteen second news flashes aside and start trading something like a six month signal instead, doesn't that allow you a much nicer life than fixating on the minutia of every moment? Also: Covel talks about why Hugh Hendry will probably never do the podcast, shares a speech from the "Kid President", and finally uses the word "ladyboy" on the podcast. Want a free trend following DVD? Visit www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto022813.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:46pm EDT

It was a few years ago when trader, investor, and venture capitalist Brad Rotter expressed his belief to Michael Covel that technology was arbitraging away the need for human capital. People just aren't needed anymore. This idea stuck with Covel and he explores the idea that, if people are needed less and less as technology increases, what do you do to get ahead? You can be replaced if you're working for the man. It's harder than ever to build a life around the beautiful little house and the white picket fence when your job might be taken out from under you as technology progresses. So what kind of strategy do you use in the face of that? You can become an entrepreneur. Covel thinks its one of the most exciting times ever for would-be entrepreneurs. Yes, some jobs are going away forever, but that just might be the kick in the pants you need to go and do something that matters: to make art of some kind, whether it's painting, creating software, designing a trading system, developing a new way of teaching, or trading your own account. When you're 90 years old you'll be able to day that you didn't just clock in for the man every day of your life. Who wants to be a desk jockey working for the man for minimum wage? Instead of being a cog in the wheel, you can make a new wheel. The simple notion of being an entrepreneur is the magic elixir in the face of the problem of technology arbitraging away the need for human capital: you create something new that is of value, someone buys it, and money is exchanged. The idea is that you control it. Technology can't take your place if you're bringing unique and new ideas to the table. Everyone has some sort of skill; everyone brings something to the table. But people are scared to make the leap. You have to have a belief in yourself; you can't fear failure. Making mistakes is the magic that leads you to success. If you don't have any mistakes under your belt, you have a fragile foundation. Ultimately, you can make people believe in you and compensate you for the value that you bring. All you need is your wit, your smarts, and your enterprising spirit to make something happen. DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto021613.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:11pm EDT

Michael Covel returns for his first podcast since going abroad in Southeast Asia. Currently in Thailand, Covel catches us up on where he's been so far. He notes the history of past conflicts in the area and his thoughts from a mountain view six-thousand feet above the ground looking onto the landscape below. Since leaving the US Covel has especially enjoyed not paying attention to the news coming from America. The idea of noise is afterall pointless from a trend following perspective. If you can get away from it, either physically (like Covel) or mentally, it's a good idea to eliminate it in your life. Along the lines of what's needed and not needed, Covel plays a video called "What Do Prices Know That You Don't?", a clip from a Duke professor that discusses relying on price to make decisions. Even though the video doesn't come from a direct trend following perspective, it illustrates the danger of too much information. It's easy to play the game of waiting for one more news report, watching one more episode of Bill O'Reilly, or trusting the promises of one last politician. That's where we are right now: we're in a game. So, if you are in a game, how do you navigate it? What do you do? What decisions do you make? And what happens when the game doesn't go the way the government has said? So, what lies ahead? Covel reads a piece of writing from Transtrend's newsletter regarding the role of the government and what you can expect, followed by a piece from John Hussman. Both readings seem to agree on one thing: something will happen at some point. Are you prepared? Or do you just want to just trust that the government will forever be able to prop up the market? Hussman makes the point to not follow prices, which Covel disagrees with--if the Chinese stock market is going up, you want to be long. The issue isn't what to do in a market that's going up; the issue is having an exit strategy. Covel's view is to be long and be happy in a rising market, but have an exit strategy. That's the solution. If you can't wrap your arms around that you might think about getting out of the markets completely. Even if you don't ultimately adopt a trend following strategy, if you're going to be trading, it's of dire importance to understand the concept of trend following. It's essential to have it in your arsenal of tools. Covel wraps up and shares some other observations about Asia, his upcoming presentations abroad, announces an upcoming audiobook version of The Complete TurtleTrader, and discusses what you can expect from the podcast in the coming months. Want a free trend following DVD? Visit trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto021513.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:14am EDT

Michael Covel discusses how to best go about learning to become a trend following trader. Often when people come to trend following trading for the first time they get fixated on the rules alone, thinking there is a "magic potion". There are other factors to consider, and Covel examines them by relating to two articles: "Why Are Super-Achievers So Successful?" from Smithsonian.com and "The Secret Ingredient for Success" from The New York Times. Covel examines the common threads of the super-achiever: self-awareness and self-evaluation; finding ways to connect themselves to people that would support their dreams goals; the skill of active listening; and patience. Covel highlights one part of the article that states "you don't have to win every lap", and points out a perfect parallel to trend following trading. The best traders out there don't win every day or every month, but they pick up the big wins when they come along. Do you want to allow yourself to be seduced by the buy and hold mantra, to be at the mercy of when the S&P will take it's next 50% dive backwards? Or do you want to be a super-achiever? Covel's training programs will put you in the position to be a super-achiever: his fifteen years of his experience; his insight of knowing exactly what to do in your own personal circumstances; the attitude and psychology necessary to be a successful trader; and the personal support and motivation to go out there and make it happen. You can get the systems and education you need to get a head start in the trend following world. If you want more than Covel's five books and film, you can get a leg up through his flagship trading system or one-on-one training. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto012613.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:15am EDT

For the past couple of years many of us have been in love with Apple. Their products, their style, and their stock. It was a great story as long as the stock was going straight up. On today's podcast Michael Covel talks about all things Apple: the worship; the seemingly romantic love of Apple stock; and the drop down to $450 a share from its peak above $702.10 in September (down 35% from its peak). Covel compares the fundamental viewpoint looking at Apple today to the trend following perspective that is purely based on price action. The Wall Street analysts all seem to insist that they can predict the future, but none of them predicted this. So, what does this mean? Is Apple a "broken company"? Apple had a profit of 13 billion dollars, sold 28% more iPhones and 48% more iPads, and the stock still went down. Covel looks at several articles from Wall Street analysts and notes that none of these people were saying what they're saying now when the stock was at 700 a share. Covel creatively points out the complete drivel coming from these analysts, and notes how nothing has changed on Apple's end but the price of their stock. So why is this only being pointed out now? And what is Covel's ultimate point? Follow the price action. Trend followers don't have to know anything about what's going on inside the back room of an Apple store. This is a classic example of a trend: ride the train up, ride the train down. Is the stock cheap now? What if it's at 350 or 250 next month? Do you buy on the dip? If the market is going down, get out or short it. The price knows more than any Wall Street analyst. There is no way on the planet to attach all fundamental views to the movement of the stock price. If the best traders on the planet don't have these insights, how can the stock jockeys at CNBC and Bloomberg, for example, have them? Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto012513.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:19am EDT

Inspired by a blog post by Barry Ritholtz, Michael Covel goes over his own list of "Things I Don't Care About". You can have the intravenous drip straight into your arm, but what does all that commentary do for you? Ultimately, if you're a trend following trader or any type of investor you need a process. You need a set of rules that tells you where to enter, where to exit, and how much to bet of your limited capital at all times. Regardless of account size, volatility, etc. You need a process that determines that for you. If you have that then eliminating all other stuff is paramount. And it's not just for trading reasons; it's for life reasons. Covel goes through Ritholtz's list and compares it to his own. On the flipside Covel also goes through a list of the things he does care about: Knowing how the "behind-the-scenes" action really works; the traders that he has learned from in his books; having honest interactions with people; Alan Watts; Ken Tropin's white papers; The Winton Papers; the Zen Habits blog; and Seth Godin's website. Covel relates several stories from traders such as Salem Abraham and David Harding which taught him some valuable lessons. Covel explains that if you want to be good at anything you have to be passionate about it. You have to care, you have to get inside it, and you have to own it. In the next segment Covel talks about the idea of the efficient market hypothesis, which is one of the foundational pillars for academics. They claim to have mathematical formulas which can predict the future, even though the underlying assumptions are false. Life is much easier for a professor who can fall back on beautiful mathematics. Unfortunately, many people have been sold up the river using investment products based on efficient markets. Covel quotes Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway regarding extreme proponents of the efficient market hypothesis. Munger, even though he's a value investing guy, knows there are outliers and black swans. He knows that markets aren't efficient. Munger notes that mistaken professors were "too much influenced by rational man-models of human behaviors from economics, and too little by foolish man-models from psychology and real world experience." How can there be rational man when Jersey Shore gets high ratings? There's no such thing as rational today. Even if there was markets still might go in a completely different direction from what rational is even deemed to be. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto012013.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:42pm EDT

Michael Covel talks to Eric Crittenden. Crittenden is a Founding Partner responsible for managing all research, risk quantification and trading operations at Longboard Asset Management. He's also been featured in Covel's own Little Book of Trading. Covel and Crittenden talk about Crittenden's beginnings, coming from a medical background and switching majors to economics. Crittenden got to see the world from two different perspectives: one from a biostatistics and natural sciences perspective, and also from a business school perspective. Crittenden is a little different than some of his counterparts in the industry in that he focuses more on "why?" than "what?". Covel and Crittenden talk about sustainability vs. short term inefficiencies; being "ultra long term trend followers" and some of the reasons why he believes it to be the most robust approach; Crittenden's peers and influences--particularly Tom Basso; the start of Longboard Asset Management; why Crittenden decided on a "trend following mutual fund" model, and the benefits to that model; looking at performance data and understanding when trend following (or the media perception of it) falls "below average"; diversification and the markets Crittenden chooses to trade; risk control at Longboard; who can buy into Longboard and the minimum investment required; whether most of the large liquid markets work within the robust structure Crittenden has developed for trading--and the one (only, single) market that long term trend following would have produced a loss on within the last forty years. Crittenden also gives an explanation on the source of trend following returns that might be one of the clearest explanations of the topic that Covel has heard to date.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto011713.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:42pm EDT

Michael Covel opens up with some Johnny Cash. Like most of Cash's music it's a simple song. It's powerful, but it works. And its simplicity is exactly why it works. Covel dedicates today's episode to the topics of simplicity, prediction, and risk, and presents three articles revolving around each of these ideas. First, Covel mentions an article that appeared in Business Week regarding how Japan's fear of risk is getting dangerous. For those not aware the Japanese stock market is down 76% still from its 1989 high. That would have to be an entire generation--an entire country--that no longer believes in the stock market. That's not the reason Covel brings up the article; rather, it's the "play it safe" mentality. He goes on to discuss the tendency to focus on downsides rather than opportunities. The attitude of risk-aversion in Japan explains why few Japanese students choose to study abroad, why regulators hold up vaccinations, and why 844 trillion yen (almost twice the country's yearly economic output) sits idle in cash at home and in savings accounts earning 0.02% interest. We're not far away from this attitude coming to America, but with that comes an opportunity for you to profit. Covel isn't picking on Japan; it's just a useful example of the risk-averse attitude that seems to be spreading. Covel moves onto an article from Golf Digest called "What Predictions Say About Us". Predictions are about pretending to know. Covel points out one particularly compelling quote: "Human beings are wired to predict. In ancient times, predictions served as a psychological counterweight to the extreme uncertainty of life. As we've gained more control over this daily existence, predictions help encourage the illusion that we're in charge of our own destiny. The more that is unknown, the greater the urge to predict." Somehow we've come to think that we can predict almost everything. It's hard-wired into us. If you can understand that so many people are destined to predict (and continually predict incorrectly) it can put you in the position to profit--if you've got a strategy that's predicated on *not* predicting, i.e. trend following. Covel moves on to discuss simplicity quoting an article called "One Trick Pony". The article talks about Peyton Manning and Tom Moore, who teamed up with a NFL strategy that they used with great success. Their strategy was based on running the fewest play concepts of any offense in the league. It's not about trying to surprise the opponent, but in mastering a strategy that works. That's trend following, too. It's relatively simple, it's robust, it's big, and there aren't a lot of moving parts. It is what it is--which is a great opportunity for profit. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto011313.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:06pm EDT

Michael Covel sets the tone for today's propaganda-themed show with two clips: A Rod Serling monologue from "The Twilight Zone" and the infamous Apple "1984" commercial. Covel goes on to discuss an article about David Harding of Winton Capital--a trader who has become one of the major faces in trend following trading due to his track record in the last decade. The article notes Harding's -3.5% 2012, calls his success a "blip", and generally presents criticism without any foundational understanding of Harding's techniques. Covel tears the article apart point-by-point. It's a perfect representation of how the media misrepresents the facts. Covel's isn't motivated to critique this particular article because he's a David Harding fanboy--rather, his goal is to point out the intellectual dishonesty put on display so often in the media. Covel questions the motives of the writers; dispels the myth that massive computational power is needed to be a trend following trader; and questions how one 3.5% down year can possibly be considered a "plunge" or "blip" in the larger context of Harding's track record. The authors state that Harding was "blindsided by market uncertainty", but trend following is built on accepting the fact that a black swan can appear in at any moment--a fundamental concept that the authors clearly don't understand. Next, Covel discusses Dave Ramsey and Ric Edelman; radio hosts who both are convinced that you can't make money trading. So, they convince you to buy and hold mutual funds (perhaps some of which they've helped create) and leave you hoping for the best. Covel takes both of them on and dispels their claims that no one in the Forbes 400 makes their money trading. So, why do Ramsey and Edelman persist in putting out such information? Because they have something to sell. Covel has something to sell too, but he gives both sides of the story. He lays out the buy and hold strategies and compares them to systematic trend following. It's just clear who the winner is when you see the whole picture. Ramsey and Edelman neglect to talk about trading successfully; it's all part of the propaganda machine. Think critically. Don't be a sheep. If you want to obtain something more than average, you've got to keep your eyes wide open and look for the propaganda. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto011213.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:33am EDT