Trend Following with Michael Covel
Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.

Michael Covel talks about the incessant search for the "new new thing". He quotes author and blogger Seth Godin and his article, "The Decline of Fascination and the Rise in Ennui". Covel notes how the only constant in life and trading is change. Uncertainty is the root of trend following and if you have a philosophy that's grounded in change, you'll have a strategy that responds well to the world of ebbs and flows. You'll have a strategy that won't leave you blindly sitting there and will let you participate when a market either goes up or down. It won't leave you at the mercy of the latest "new new thing". So, which strategy can make you money in unending change? Trend following is a fantastic option. Covel goes on to quote Michael Mauboussin and notes the importance of process vs. outcome and the tricky subject of luck: "If you compete in a field where luck plays a role, you should focus more on the process of how you make the decisions and rely less on the short term outcomes. The reason is that luck breaks the direct link between skill and results. You can be skillful and have a poor outcome, or unskillful and have a good outcome." Covel discusses the criticism of people that expect positive trend following performance every month. Look in the books, look at the charts--trend following is a long term strategy. As Covel has said in the past any strategy that gives you a steady 1% a month is probably Bernie Madoff or Long Term Capital Management (i.e. soon to be exposed or busted). Covel goes on to quote an article by PFP Wealth Management regarding the essence of trend following. Covel also uses the classic Pixies song, "Debaser" and notes that it has about as much to do with your trading as turning on CNBC or Bloomberg. Think about it. Free DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto112812.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:31pm EDT

"Mr. Serenity" Tom Basso, the trend following trader famously featured in Jack Schwager's "New Market Wizards", returns to the show to speak with Michael Covel. This time, the focus is on questions posed by listeners. Basso and Covel go over the questions and talk about subjects such as the video of philosopher Alan Watts that Covel discussed on a recent podcast that asked, "what if money was no object?"; how Basso manages his emotions during both losing and winning periods; what drove Basso to "enjoy the ride" and whether there were periods in his life when it was difficult to do so; exit strategies on winning positions; Basso's use of hedges; the process behind taking a developed system from testing to live trading; what Basso learned from his earliest large drawdown; Basso's use of money management and risk control; Basso's advice to the first time programmer; how to handle skeptics of trend following; whether Basso considered the notion of serenity from the very beginning of his career; the career of John W. Henry; Basso's coin flip entry method, and the importance of exit strategies; percent betting; diversification; what would cause Basso to stop trading a particular system; comfort with uncertainty; Basso's views on initial capital at risk vs. unrealized gains; and fighting against your gut reaction when your system tells you otherwise. Basso brings a wealth of knowledge in answering these listener questions, so hop on and (as Basso says) "enjoy the ride".

Note: This original #83 episode has to been updated to include all Basso interviews so far. 4 hours plus!

Direct download: TrendFollowingManifesto112712.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:21pm EDT

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