Sun, 11 November 2012
Ep. 78: Trend Following Style, Prechter, Godin, and Gawande with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel talks about his upcoming trip to Asia (with a special song intro for Korea). His plans include a speech in Tokyo, time spent in Singapore, Bali, Penang, KL Thailand, with various speaking events throughout. Covel's Asian odyssey is sure to be documented in the podcast. Covel also thanks the listeners for the success of the podcast. People feel stuck, and Covel talks about Stephen Cope's "The Great Work of Your Life: The Guide to the Journey of Your True Calling". Most Americans don't want to be on the endless treadmill, and maybe trend following is a way to get the freedom that you need in order to find your calling. Next, Covel discusses a quote from Bob Prechter, of Elliott Wave fame. Covel doesn't think that predictive techniques work, but Prechter had a fantastic piece of writing that Covel shares that analyzes some of the Fed actions in the past compared to what they're doing now. Covel contemplates what this might mean, and how it shows the Fed might be in a panic. But what does this mean to a trend following trader? Very simply, it's just another reason to employ a trend following strategy. If the Fed has dampened speculation in the past by raising interest rates to pop a bubble, and today you've got markets right back at the all-time highs but rates are still at 0%--what might this mean? If this scenario is accurate, what strategy do you employ? You can either trust the system, or you can put in place a strategy that only places trust in price action. Look at what Prechter says to inspire you to become a trend following trader. So how do you adjust? Covel goes on to discuss how to get "unstuck" quoting author Seth Godin: "Starting without seeing the end is difficult, so we often wait until we see the end." Next, a quote from Atul Gawande that talks about knowing your fallibility, and the importance of practice and nurture (in trend following). Covel also discusses an upcoming massive searchable .PDF file that he's putting together featuring 15 years of research containing background documents, systems, and other research materials. Covel's special offer new DVD: www.trendfollowing.com/win.