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Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
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Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 7+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 600+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Mar 22, 2019

Safi Bahcall is an American technologist, business executive, and author. He has presented at over 130 banking conferences, investor events, and medical meetings around the world, as well as at leading academic institutions. His book “Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries” is out.

Safi grew up with parents who were highly acclaimed physicists. He was indoctrinated with the mindset of looking at the world and asking, “Why?” Even to this day, he has those discussions of asking, “Why” with his parents. It has given him an inquisitive perspective – always looking at things from multiple angles.

What is a loonshot? Loonshots are how big achievements, money, fame and recognition are produced. They are leaps of faith grounded in asking good questions. In keeping a questioning mindset you may find the twist that gives you the answer to what everyone else is missing. This asking mindset can be applied across all fields – military, government, technology, medicine, politics, social media, etc. Safi exposes some of these loonshots with examples going back to Alexander Graham Bell, WWII, Apple and many others.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Social media companies
Loonshots
National research system of the U.S.
Leader mindsets
Innovation
Good companies vs. Failing companies
Early stage ideas
Apple
Steve Jobs
AT&T
Bell Labs

Mar 18, 2019

Trend Commandments with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Mar 15, 2019

Dana Cavalea is the former strength, conditioning and performance coach for the New York Yankees and author of, “Habits of a Champion, Nobody Becomes a Champion By Accident.” He started in baseball as an underperforming player, knowing he would never make it to the major leagues. In 2002, at 19 years old, he was given the opportunity to be a towel/weight room cleanup guy for the Yankee’s – he quickly jumped at the chance.

How did Dana make the move from towel guy to strength and conditioning coach? Core and functional training was just taking off in the world of sports. He committed himself to learning everything he could in that sports niche. Players would give him the chance to teach them different stretching techniques (on the side of their other training). His tips were working and players confidence in him and his confidence in himself snowballed.

Dana gave players two things other trainers weren’t providing: 1. He could find immediate ways to locate and alleviate pain. He took players like Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter and found where their pain was and gave them tips and tricks to help relieve some pain to get them on the field for their next game. 2. He built relationships with players outside of the stadium. Dana would go to breakfast, lunch and dinner with players and gain comradeship. When players know, like and trust you, you win them over.

As a New York native Dana grew up loving the game of baseball. And as a player himself, he always wanted to know what the pros “edge” was. His new book (and this podcast) is packed full of how players like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, Andy Pettitte, and Jorge Posada think. He shares what gives baseball’s elite players the edge needed to be a winner–lessons we can all use baseball players or not.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Importance of routine
Derek Jeter
Talent vs. work ethic in pro sports
Science behind training
Yoga
Mindfulness
Meditation
Downshifting the nervous system

Mar 11, 2019

TurtleTrader with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Mar 8, 2019

Eric Dugan is founder of 3D Capital Management, where he runs two primary intraday systems: short-biased S&P 500 and long-short trend following S&P 500 using multiple global markets as inputs and indicators. His systems analyze the flow of markets around the world and attempt to identify how the action in a certain market will impact the S&P during U.S. trading hours. Eric has not missed a trading day since the inception of 3D Capital Management 11 years ago.

Eric had been working construction in 1992 when his best friend moved to Chicago to trade. Shortly after his friend left, he reached back out to Eric to give him a job. December of 1992 was Eric’s first visit to Chicago for an interview with famed trader Monroe Trout, and in January of 1993 he began his first day ever trading for Trout Trading.

Because Trout was a systematic trader, there was no real need to know “what” a trader was going to do, other than trade the system. Eric’s lack of knowledge of markets when he first started did not matter because the system was king. Eric worked for Trout Trading from 1993 – 1999. When Eric started he had zero experience and within a year he was manager of Pacific Rim desk at Trout Trading. He quickly learned how to identify weakness in the stock market, which has become his greatest asset throughout his career.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Risk Control
Identifying trends
Profiting from weakness in the stock market
Trading world markets
Buying high and selling higher

Mar 4, 2019

Trend Following Fifth Edition with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Mar 1, 2019

Daphne Chua has completed over 2,000 hours of teacher trainings and taught over 3,000 hours in classes, private sessions, special needs yoga, workshops, retreats, and teacher trainings. She is a certified yoga therapist, movement educator, body worker, Anusara Inspired™ teacher, E-RYT500 Yoga Alliance Continuing Education Provider (YACEP), and has been running her own embodiment and inquiry-based therapeutic training modules for the last 3 years.

Yoga is a practice of the body and mind connection. It helps people understand their bodies and relationships better. Most come into yoga for physical practice first, and later are drawn in deeper for the positive psychological effects. The body goes through different shapes, poses and forms that trigger the mind.

What happens chemically when leaving a massage or yoga class? What leaves a student in a state of euphoria? When working with the body there is constant chemical changes taking place. It all comes back to breath. When anxious or stressed there is shallow breathing that occurs and is concentrated in the upper chest area. Once the breath and circulation starts flowing, the mind gets more clear and focused. We begin to see the world as it is rather than over analyzing and focusing on trivial things. Breath gives fresh perspective. Throughout Daphne’s practice her therapy sessions, classes, workshops, and trainings focus on breath and awareness of the mind-body connection.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Yoga therapy
Psychology behind yoga
Addiction
Breath
Yoga tool kits
Present moment

Feb 25, 2019

A New Mega Collection with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Feb 22, 2019

Peter Borish is chief strategist of Quad Capital. He is a trading coach, helps recruit new traders and develop the company’s trading strategy. He also is a founding member of the Robin Hood Foundation. The Robin Hood Foundation has made great strides in their charity work and continue to do bigger and better things. Peter believes that the quality of life for those around you is much more important than the material possessions that can be accumulated.

What has been a big change over the course of Peter’s career when looking at his younger trading days up until now? When he was younger he took greater risks because he had more time to recover potential losses. He was applying innovative techniques at high costs and was ok with doing that. He tells his clients two things: 1) Never minimize the pain when looking backwards from a positive outcome and 2) If you survive, you win.

What advice does Peter give to the younger generation of traders trying to make it on Wall Street? Relationships matter. When you are younger and have success you think that success is going to continue. The markets are a humbling place and you will not always win. Peter has learned that building those personal relationships gets traders through the down times. Those connections need to be cultivated because you never know when that time will pay off.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Compounding
  • Individual responsibility for retirement
  • Tax rates
  • Robin Hood
  • Paul Tudor Jones
  • High frequency trading
  • Risk management
  • Game theory
  • AI in trading
Feb 18, 2019

Creativity Wins with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Feb 15, 2019

Ethan Kross is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan. His research seeks to “Understand factors enabling people to adaptively regulate triggered impulses and emotions that undermine their goals and compromise their health.” He wants to resolve a key paradox in coping literature by finding insights and translating those insights to the rest of the world.

What got Ethan into studying behavior and how the mind works? Around the age of 4 or 5, whenever Ethan would get upset, his dad would ask him to “go inside” and look within himself to figure out why he was feeling how he was feeling. For years Ethan would do this as a positive coping mechanism. When he got to college he learned that when most look inside themselves to dig deeper, this takes them to a negative place. Introspection seemed to only prolong their negative feelings. This resonated with him and started him down his current path of asking “Why?”

Much of his work is focused on social media. In early 2010 Ethan became increasingly interested in Facebook. He found himself looking around his classroom and in the hallway–relentlessly seeing students with open Facebook windows on their phone. He wondered: “Are these students happier now that they have social media in their lives?” Ethan started digging and found research that was all over the place. Some studies would say, “People who are on Facebook are more happy” and then he would come across another study saying the complete opposite. He concluded that the methods in which those studies were using to gather data were grossly inefficient.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Thinking objectively
Passive and interactive activities on social media
Experian sampling
Regulation on social media
LeBron James move from the Cavaliers
Self talk
Dealing with problems under stressed.

Feb 11, 2019

Follow Your Effort Not Your Passion with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Feb 8, 2019

Aaron Dignan is founder of The Ready, former CEO of Undercurrent and author of “Brave New Work: Are You Ready to Reinvent Your Organization?” Aaron advises management teams at GE, American Express, PepsiCo, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and The Cooper Hewitt National Design Museum – just to name a few.

What got Aaron heading down the path of innovation? From an early age he was interested in human potential. He always wanted to know: What am I capable of? Aaron started a few companies and quickly learned what an unsustainable operating system looked like. After 8 years running his company he realized there was too much work fully dependent on him and knew something needed to change if his company was ever going to grow. Aaron took a step back and searched out what would happen if he let go of the reigns a little. He looked at various systems in nature that didn’t have traditional leaders, as well as companies that had done great things operating in non-traditional ways. His company now has the mission statement of “Change how the world works.”

Aaron approaches bureaucracy in business by way of his idea of the “OS Canvas.” OS Canvas is a framework and tool that reflects and evolves an organization’s operating system through 12 critical fields: Purpose, authority, structure, strategy, resources, innovation, workflow, meetings, information, membership, mastery, and compensation. Each field can be used to clarify and provoke principles and practices upon which everything runs. With his operating system he helps companies and individuals answer the question: What is stopping you from doing the best work of your life?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Innovation
  • Bureaucracy
  • Bottlenecks in decision making
  • Quarterly statements
  • Operating system canvas
Feb 4, 2019

If It Keeps Giving Your More Love Go with It More with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 31, 2019

Walter Williams is a professor, economist, commentator and academic. He is the John M. Olin Distinguished Professor of Economics at George Mason University, as well as a syndicated columnist and author known for his libertarian views.

What has been the driving force behind Professor Williams and his clear economic way of thinking? He attributes it to being 83, growing up as a black man who didn’t have good grades handed to him, getting an education before political correctness was a “thing” and his education/professors at UCLA.

Professor Williams has a very clear view on the state of America via socialism, racism, feminism, free speech, and economics. So how does Walter feel about socialism? He believes nothing in this world is free. It may have the cost of $0 but it is costing someone, something, somewhere. Socialism changes the human nature of wanting more for oneself. And free speech? He feels there is increasing contempt among people. Most of mans history has a trend of arbitrary abuse and control by others. So which way is America headed?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Socialism
Racism
Feminism
Hidden Agendas of the wealthy and political
Liberty
Censorship
Blacks and liberalism

Jan 28, 2019

Speculative Wisdom with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 25, 2019

Kyle Nel is CEO and co-founder of Uncommon Partners, served as executive director for Lowe’s Innovation Labs, co-creator of Neurons, Inc., sits on the boards of various emerging tech companies, and a faculty member at Singularity University. His newest book is “Leading Transformation: How to Take Charge of Your Company’s Future.”

Everything starts with a narrative. It doesn’t matter how old you are, what religion you practice or what part of the world you live in – people live off stories. We take all stories, fiction and non-fiction, and relate them back to our lives. Stories are how humans interpret and accept new information.

Kyle went back in time, looked at the data and saw that every big movement was backed by motivation, cognition and a story. He would give presentation after presentation and see no change in behavior by his audience, until he started putting narratives behind what he was speaking on. His audience was suddenly able to make it relatable to them, and therefore believable and actionable.

Kyle focuses on helping companies break down the steps to building a strategic narrative, breaking bottlenecks and figuring out who and where the influencers are in their business niche. After laying out the steps for his clients he writes their archetype. Kyle knows that we live in an exponential world, and need to look at the market opportunistically. Good companies that incrementally improve year to year are looking at almost certain failure. He helps guide his clients to make those exponential leaps.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Strategic thinking
Creating narratives in business
Incremental thinking
Breaking bottlenecks
Linear paths
Exponential paths
Neuroscience
Behavioral science

Jan 21, 2019

Is It Reasonable with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 18, 2019

John Lin is founder and CEO of Grasshopper, a high frequency trading firm providing liquidity in global markets. Grasshopper was founded in 2006 and is heavily driven by technology and innovation. After graduating with an Engineering degree from Cornell University, John worked his way up from a clerk position in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Since then, he’s lived and traded internationally in London and Tokyo, and currently lives in Singapore.

John is one of the last traders fortunate enough to have floor experience on the CME. He got a job as a runner on the CME floor in the early 1990’s and from there he learned invaluable lessons on trading, discipline and respecting the market. What made John so interested in trading in the pits? He saw the pits as capitalism ground zero.

Over the years, with technology changing, John has had to adapt his trading style accordingly. John has gone through a gradual transformation in his trading – starting with his 15 year career on the trading floor where he interacted heavily with people to 100% computer driven high frequency trading. He has taken his experience from his early years of trading and poured it into his current companies. As a trader, you are taught you’re never bigger than the market. John knows he is always listening to the market when he trades, not trying to beat it.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trading in the pits
Nick Leeson
Singapore legal system
Barings Bank – 1995
High frequency trading
Crypto currency
Interfacing with technology

Jan 14, 2019

Serendipity and Opportunity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 11, 2019

Tero Isokauppila is author of “Healing Mushrooms” and founder of Four Sigmatic, a natural super foods company specializing in mushroom-based drink powders. In 2012, he founded Four Sigmatic, spreading to Europe and Canada and eventually brought the business to the U.S. in 2015.

Tero grew up on a 13 generation farm in Nokia, Finland with both of his parents in the health, wellness and agriculture sphere. Some of his earliest memories were going into the forest when he was about 2 or 3 and picking herbs, berries, and mushrooms. He loved the berries but found the mushrooms so “odd.”

There is estimated to be about 1.5 million different types of mushrooms–that’s about 6 times the amount of mushroom species over plant species. Mushrooms are used for food, soil, psychedelic purposes, and medicinal. They are present in just about every aspect of life however not many realize how integrated they are in their everyday life.

There are two genres of mushrooms–functional and culinary. Generally, functional mushrooms are eaten for health reasons and culinary mushrooms are eaten for taste. Functional mushrooms grow on trees and culinary mushrooms grow in the ground. Skin, eyes, vitamin D, minerals, immune system boosters, and brain functions are all areas mushrooms can help in the body. Through Four Sigmatic, Tero has developed coffee’s, tea’s, elixirs, and other boosters enhanced with mushrooms to target all tastes and appetites.

An episode direct to health and wellness coupled with entrepreneurial drive.

Jan 7, 2019

The Self-Aware Path to Success with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Jan 4, 2019

Richard Sheridan is founder of Menlo Innovations and author of “Joy, Inc.” and “Chief Joy Officer.” He shares an inspirational guide for those seeking joy in the challenge of leading others and pushes readers to think, act and lead different. Too many live in quiet desperation. It’s Richard’s mission to bring those people out of those lives and thrive in whatever workplace they are in.

Before Menlo Richard was in a job that by all definitions he should have loved. He was creating art and making a real impact in people’s lives, however he was not happy. He realized he had created a culture where nobody at his company could make a move without his approval. He knew the company could not move forward any faster than him. Shedding the “smartest guy in the room image” was an important part of culture Richard wanted to instill wherever he went next.

In “Chief Joy Officer” Richard shows the importance of intertwining culture and leadership. He brings in his experience from running Menlo Innovations and his consulting elsewhere to offer a wise, provocative guide on how anyone can build leadership with a focus on joy within their own organization.

What is Richard’s definition of Joy? Joy is in service to others. He believes it speaks to the heart of the engineer. People want to see the work of their hearts, hands and minds be made and used in the world. They want to see their creation mean something to someone else and create delight. Too often people are motivated by artificial fear rather than motivated by positivity. Joy is the culture he wants everything he does to be centered around.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Extreme programing
Running experiments
Trusting your team
What is Joy?
Killing ideas vs. action oriented
Index cards

Dec 31, 2018

Inside The Game Theory Mind with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 28, 2018

Harold de Boer is a trend following legend with a consistent track record dating back to the 1980’s. His approach to the markets can be seen as, “A farmer’s common sense and mathematics while at the same time never losing sight of the underlying fundamentals.” He is currently managing director and the architect of the Diversified Trend Program, responsible for research & development, portfolio management and trading at Transtrend–with over $4 billion under management.

Harold learned statistics on the farm and has found that a lot of what is seen in markets has a analogy associated with farm life. As he was finishing up college one of his final assignments was to find a real life problem that could be fixed by using his knowledge in statistics. He contacted a commodity trading firm who had a project from him to look at relationships between meats (i.e. pork and beef) and feeds (ie. corn and soybeans). Starting there Harold first saw that there was trending behavior in the markets.

Harold has a solid trading philosophy that has been built from the ground up. He doesn’t worry himself with many things that usual market pro may worry about–like benchmarks or efficient markets. Harold looks at benchmarks as doing more harm then good in the industry. And as for efficient markets? He sees no academic proof behind the theory. Market participants make the markets move–they don’t just move automatically. Apple stock does not move from people buying lots of iPhone’s. The stock moves from market players buying Apple stock. A stock, any market, will not go up or down without participants engaging in markets making bets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Brexit
Fundamental trading vs. technical trading
Price trends and haystacks
Media in markets
Trend following philosophy
Benchmarks
Efficient markets
Trading off the grid

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