Info

Trend Following with Michael Covel

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at www.trendfollowing.com/podcast.
RSS Feed Subscribe in Apple Podcasts
2019
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2018
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2017
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2016
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2015
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2014
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2013
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


2012
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January


Categories

All Episodes
Archives
Categories
Now displaying: Category: general

Bestselling author Michael Covel is the host of Trend Following Radio with 8+ million listens. Investments, economics, decision-making, human behavior & entrepreneurship--all passionately explored. Guests include Nobel Prize winners Robert Aumann, Angus Deaton, Daniel Kahneman, Harry Markowitz & Vernon Smith. Also: James Altucher, Dan Ariely, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Kathleen Eisenhardt, Marc Faber, Tim Ferriss, Jason Fried, Gerd Gigerenzer, Larry Hite, Sally Hogshead, Ryan Holiday, Jack Horner, Ewan Kirk, Steven Kotler, Michael Mauboussin, Tucker Max, Barry Ritholtz, Jim Rogers, Jack Schwager, Ed Seykota, Philip Tetlock & Walter Williams. All 800+ eps at trendfollowingradio.com/rss.

Dec 31, 2018

Inside The Game Theory Mind with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 28, 2018

Harold de Boer is a trend following legend with a consistent track record dating back to the 1980’s. His approach to the markets can be seen as, “A farmer’s common sense and mathematics while at the same time never losing sight of the underlying fundamentals.” He is currently managing director and the architect of the Diversified Trend Program, responsible for research & development, portfolio management and trading at Transtrend–with over $4 billion under management.

Harold learned statistics on the farm and has found that a lot of what is seen in markets has a analogy associated with farm life. As he was finishing up college one of his final assignments was to find a real life problem that could be fixed by using his knowledge in statistics. He contacted a commodity trading firm who had a project from him to look at relationships between meats (i.e. pork and beef) and feeds (ie. corn and soybeans). Starting there Harold first saw that there was trending behavior in the markets.

Harold has a solid trading philosophy that has been built from the ground up. He doesn’t worry himself with many things that usual market pro may worry about–like benchmarks or efficient markets. Harold looks at benchmarks as doing more harm then good in the industry. And as for efficient markets? He sees no academic proof behind the theory. Market participants make the markets move–they don’t just move automatically. Apple stock does not move from people buying lots of iPhone’s. The stock moves from market players buying Apple stock. A stock, any market, will not go up or down without participants engaging in markets making bets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Brexit
Fundamental trading vs. technical trading
Price trends and haystacks
Media in markets
Trend following philosophy
Benchmarks
Efficient markets
Trading off the grid

Dec 24, 2018

Aspire to No Goals with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 21, 2018

Mark Miller is founder of The Legacy Lab and chief strategy officer of Team One. His work focuses on helping companies build legacies and make lasting impact on the markets they are in. Mark’s new book is “Legacy in the Making: Building a Long-Term Brand to Stand Out in a Short-Term World.”

How do those who succeed look at today’s world and move through it? Mark has come up with five principles: Put personal contribution before making money, internal culture must come first, it’s not just about growing your customer base but also collaborating with customers, lead in external culture and be the thought leader in your niche, and never stop thinking about your legacy – there is no such thing as 15 minutes of fame.

Companies nowadays must not only look at how to get off the ground, but also long term sustainability. Honest Co. is an example of a company that re-imagined a market and positioned their products to become a billion dollar success. Jessica Alba made the company a personal mission and attached her story to it–this passion spilled over into the company and fueled them to where they are now.

Other companies have become not only thought leaders but also culture leaders. Sharing technology rather than hoarding information can drive companies forward in unseen ways. Mark shares stories ranging from Ritz Carlton, Lexus, San Diego Zoo, Jagermeister, Mercedes, Apple, Microsoft and Tribeca film festival. These companies/organizations have re-imagined and helped their competitors push markets further by showing more interest in creating cultural and social change rather than dominance over their competitors.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Work for the modern age
Wow stories
Legacy companies
Re-inventing markets
Social and cultural change through business

Dec 17, 2018

Can You See the Landscape with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 14, 2018

Jonathan Tepper is co-author of “The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition.” He is chairman of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to asset managers and co-founded Demotix, a citizen-journalism photo newswire.

Tepper notes — Google and Facebook control over 70% of all search and linkage within the internet. Their algorithms are biased and guide users to go where they want them to go. Most need Google or Facebook to login to certain websites. So on a platform as vast as the internet, where is the competition?

There’s a lot of smart, wealthy, entrepreneurial focused people around the world – why are they not fighting back? There is virtually no interest by people in Silicon Valley to get into the search engine game. Any small competitor that tries to insert themselves into the industry gets bought out by their larger sized competitors. Jonathan encourages capitalism and companies becoming monopolies because of organic growth. Unfortunately, this is rarely how companies grow. Monopolies are usually formed due to political advantages and strong economic footholds. Jonathan describes the economy right now as “fake capitalism.”

What will it take to overturn a Google or Facebook or Amazon? Will they be dominating for the next 30 years? The central point of evolution is competition – the struggle for survival. In a perfect world, companies with the best and strongest traits would survive while the old and fat companies would die off rather than continue to thrive because of crony capitalism. Only time will tell if these mammoth sized companies will continue to push boundaries and prosper or if a younger more creative company will overthrow them.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Technology monopolies
Capitalism
Airline monopolies
Anti trust laws
Federal Reserve
The banking system
Fake capitalism
The Antitrust Paradox
Patents

Dec 10, 2018

Time to Blame the Computers Again with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 7, 2018

Follow the Opportunity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Dec 3, 2018

Daniel Crosby is a psychologist, behavioral finance expert, asset manager and author of several books. His most recent book is “The Behavioral Investor.” Daniel’s background in behavioral psychology has taught him to look at markets as a backdrop to view human behavior in a real world setting.

Why did Daniel decide to write his latest book? What was his motivation? Daniel is a regular speaker at conferences. At those speaking engagements he was continuously hearing misinformation presented about behavioral biases in trading. He wanted to set the record straight about how to tap into emotions and explain how much personalities really play into trading.

As a psychologist who works in the markets, Daniel gets real time information on how people are feeling by looking at how price movements fluctuate. Daniel cites a study showing that 94% of the time rules beat out discretion in the markets. Betting on your “gut” almost always leads to ruin. Trading off rules doesn’t just lead to a better trading record, it also leads to less brain damage and heartburn. Daniel found about 200 different biases that can harm up trading. Within those 200 biases Daniel has created four main categories: ego, emotion, attention, and conservatism. He shows through facts and data how systematic trading is better on the pocket book as well as fostering a healthier lifestyle.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Functional fictions
Evolution
Human behavior in market price
Loss aversion
Behavior bias
Contrarian perspective

Nov 30, 2018

Ann Mei Chang is author of “LEAN IMPACT: How to Innovate for Radically Greater Social Good.” She was a technology executive with more than 20 years of experience at Google, Apple, and Intuit, as well as a range of startups before she pivoted her career into the private, social and non-profit sectors. She now works with companies around the world to help streamline growth and innovation.

Innovation is necessary for any company to grow. Ann helps non-profits and more risk-adverse companies properly take risks to improve their process. From global development to technology companies – there is a lot of uncertainty to combat against, grants to be filled as well as shareholders to appease. When tackling big issues investors and the public want to see tangible results quickly. Ann shows a balance between thinking big, keeping an eye out for what can be done better and keeping track of ever changing demand. Audacious goals are important, but you also need a process and plan of what is going to get you to that audacious goal.

Innovation is not only about creating the latest new thing, but rather taking something that is already created and making it better. Google wasn’t the first search engine, but they made it better. Facebook wasn’t the first social network, but they improved on it and made the experience better. Ann gives the example of a 700 year old invention – eyeglasses. With how long eyeglasses have been around, there is still about 2.5 billion people without access to them. Vision Spring is a non-profit that was created to reach these people without access. Vision Spring’s initial business plan wasn’t reaching as many people as planned and money was running out quickly. With continuously being open to making pivots in their business model, they continue to grow and reach larger and larger amounts of people. It is all about adaptability and innovation within whatever company your are at – non-profit to big technology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Political grandstanding
Process vs. outcome
Understanding your base customer
Projecting bias
Non-profit work

Nov 26, 2018

You Are Responsible with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 23, 2018

The Trend Following Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. A holiday reminder on great thinking!

Nov 19, 2018

Bradley Hope is a finance and malfeasance reporter for the Wall Street Journal and his latest book is “Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World.” Bradley is a Pulitzer finalist and winner of the Gerald Loeb Award for international reporting and the TRACE International Award for Investigative Reporting.

“Billion Dollar Whale” profiles a man named Jho Low – a young Malaysian man from a relatively wealthy family. He grew up attending the best boarding schools and finished up schooling at The Wharton School. During his time at Wharton he created a private equity group. He was able to get some of his wealthier friends and their parents to throw money into the fund. From a young age he knew what made people tick and had a talent connecting with very wealthy and strong political figures. Jho eventually got an audience with the Prime Minister of Malaysia to set up a fund for the Prime Minister’s campaign – this is where the real story of Jho Low starts to unfold.

Jho quickly went from a guy with a million or so dollars to worth about $700 million over night. He began throwing extravagant parties, renting private yachts and planes, and rubbing elbows with the world’s elite. He started buying giant stakes in companies and was even able to borrow 6 ½ billion from Goldman Sachs. The extent of how much he has stolen and from who is still largely unknown. Jho Low figured out how the world works, develop relationships and was the king of understanding that you could buy just about everything. With the scandal still unfolding in real time, Bradley’s book has created waves in countries around the world.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Sovereign wealth funds
  • Money laundering
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Banking compliance
Nov 16, 2018

Daniel Peris is author of “Getting Back to Business: Why Modern Portfolio Theory Fails Investors and How You Can Bring Common Sense to Your Portfolio” and a portfolio manager at Federated Investors. Before transitioning into asset management, Peris was a historian focused on modern Russian history, but now self identifies as a business investor.

Daniel’s clients tend to be more conservative investors that approach markets from a business perspective rather than a passive investment approach. His main focus is to help clients make better business like decisions about markets. Not everyone has the time or desire to be an active investor, however Daniel hammers the point that if you don’t want to take responsibility for your own trading, there are plenty money managers for hire that will align with investors needs.

Daniel has strong views on economic practices like the efficient market hypothesis (Eugene Fama) and modern portfolio theory. Daniel sees the modern portfolio theory as particularly outdated. Modern portfolio theory was a hypothesis developed by Harry Markowitz in his paper “Portfolio Selection,” published in 1952. It is an investment theory that investors can build portfolios to optimize or maximize potential return based on a prescribed level of risk within the market. This theory governs the typical investors portfolio and is the most influential economic theory in finance and investment today. Daniel argues in his book and on the podcast that this system was developed in the 50’s and does not connect to 2018 investing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Modern portfolio theory
Efficient market hypothesis
Value investing
Momentum investing
Diversification
Portfolio selection
Defining risk

Nov 12, 2018

Peter Boettke is economist of the Austrian School. He is currently an economics and philosophy professor at George Mason University; the BB&T Professor for the Study of Capitalism, Vice President for Research, and Director of the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center at GMU. His newest book is “F. A. Hayek: Economics, Political Economy and Social Philosophy (Great Thinkers in Economics).”

Peter got hooked on economics during college after being hired for his first job – digging pools. He saw taxes being taken out of his pay and personally felt the negative effects. The philosophy behind why his checks were being garnished didn’t sit well with him. Rather than be frustrated, he got fascinated with the way economics worked and quickly saw there was something obviously wrong with the way government was ran. Along with signing up for all the economics classes he could, Peter went to the library and read. He had “a-ha” moments in those reading sessions that has molded him to be the economist he is today.

Michael and Peter touch on a broad scope of topics including: What is Peter’s perspective on President Trump’s view of trade wars and tariffs? Should intellectual property be protected? What is rent seeking and how does it relate to Jeff Bezos? What separates the American entrepreneurial spirit from entrepreneurs overseas?

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trade deficits
Trump politics
Politics in the marketplace
Zero sum game
Jeff Bezos and rent seeking
The market for privileges
Merchant class mentality

Nov 9, 2018

Paul Britton is a portfolio manager at Apollo Systems Research Corporation.

What got Paul going down the trend following path? In high school Paul’s dad put him into a stock that went from $5 to $60. He took his profit and put money into a couple more stocks that turned out to be winners as well. These lucky trades peaked his interest in markets. Shortly after making these initial trades, Paul’s dad also gave him a copy of “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.” He started working and looking at data trying to see if he could get a system of his own to work. He quickly learned that you can play around with entry and exit points, markets, etc., but as long as you pick up on the big trends and ride them until they lose–that was the #1 way to make money.

Paul lets the experts in different markets such as milk, coffee, orange juice, sugar, stocks, currencies, etc. “tell him how to trade” by showing their opinions hidden within the price. “You don’t need a fundamental expertise to be trading any of these markets.” Paul is in 110 different markets. He trades strictly off price and has no idea outside of price “why” stocks are going up and down. Every strategy they develop at Apollo Systems Research Corporation has to work on many markets and have maximum diversification. Paul loves adding diversity to his portfolio where other trend followers may not be.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Momentum bias
Let your winners run
Fundamental trading
Diversification
Global macro trading
Compounding
Supply and demand

Nov 5, 2018

One of the Omaha Guys Lays It Out with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Nov 2, 2018

Deliberate Practice with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Oct 29, 2018

My reach back in time to a blast from the past on Trend Following Radio.

Oct 26, 2018

Howard Marks is an investor, writer and author of “Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side.” After working in senior positions at Citibank early in his career, Howard joined The TCW Group, Inc. in 1985. He led groups within the company responsible for investments in distressed debt, high yield bonds, and convertible securities. After 10 years at The TCW Group, Inc. he co-founded Oaktree Capital Management.

Howard got into high yield bonds in August of 1978. This was a turning point in financial history because up until this moment only good companies could borrow money. High yield bonds opened the market to more risky companies and also showed Howard a different way of looking at markets. The first company he worked for had a strategy of buying stock in the 50 most successful companies in hopes they would continue to go up forever. With the advent of the high yield market he saw himself making good and steady money off of the worst/most risky companies–turning everything he had been previously been taught upside down.

Howard has lived through over 50 years of financial history and with his new book he has gone back hundreds of years to examine and study cycles. So how does Howard define a cycle? There are many different cycles–cycles in science, speed, people inhabited, etc. Cycles in the financial world are produced by people and are created by their feelings. The cycle represents a fluctuation in something around a mid-point, but time-frames and reasons for fluctuations do not repeat themselves–except for in human behavior. Looking back hundreds of years there are a few things that are underlying in every financial boom–too much optimism, too much money chasing, and too much risk aversion.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

High yield bonds
Financial cycles
Sub prime bubble
Dot-com crash
Continued learning by reading
Risk management
Decision making

Oct 22, 2018

Run Rabbit with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Oct 19, 2018

Allison Shapira is founder and CEO of Global Public Speaking LLC and author of “Speak with Impact: How to Command the Room and Influence Others.” She teaches at the Harvard Kennedy School and offers keynote speeches, workshops, and executive coaching for Fortune 500 companies, government agencies, and nonprofits around the world.

What was the process for pulling research together for her new book? Conducting interviews? Pulling from personal experience? Allison has been teaching on public speaking for over 15 years. She has hundreds of stories spanning across just about every industry – giving her the depth of knowledge needed for this book. Allison saw trends of what worked, didn’t work and how to apply that information to the real world and real people. Public speaking is a critical skill in the professional world and it is a skill that needs training and coaching to become good at. Having knowledge and expertise on a subject alone does not make you a good speaker. Speaking clearly and concisely is a craft that demands hours of practice to feel comfortable.

Allison has had some brilliant and academically distinguished mentors, however the people she has learned from and been inspired by the most are in workshops. She is inspired by getting people “over the hump” and seeing scenarios that prove that public speaking is a skill that everyone can execute.

How does she get students over that “hump?” Vocal variety, eye contact and body language are three non-verbal communication elements that are key in giving an engaging presentation. Also, when people believe in what they are speaking on and are passionate about it, they seem to be less nervous and have less anxiety. A good presentation should feel like a conversation with the audience. With that being said, there is no such thing as perfection when it comes to public speaking. There is always room for improvement – Practice, practice, practice.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Authenticity
Public speaking
Karaoke singing
Vocal variety
Eye contact
Body language

Oct 15, 2018

Las Vegas Roundtrip with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Oct 12, 2018

Jeffrey Gitomer is an author, professional speaker, and business trainer, who writes and lectures internationally on sales, customer loyalty, and personal development. He is best known for “The Little Red Book of Selling” and his newest book, coming out at the end of October, is “Truthful Living: The First Writings of Napoleon Hill.”

Jeffrey was introduced to the Napolean Hill Foundation about 10 years ago and volunteered to start writing for their newsletter with an article every Friday. Napoleon Hill was the founding father of positive attitudes. In 1917 he had a course in advertising and selling. At the end of every course he would lay out positive thinking. When the Napolean Hill Foundation found these writings, what they call “After the Lesson Visits by Napolean Hill,” the foundation approach Jeffrey about writing a book outlining his teachings. Jeffrey did not hesitate to say yes – and after years of pining over these lecture notes, his newest book was formed.

What energizes Jeffrey and motivates him to write? He loves what he does. Every day is a great day for him. He doesn’t have two days that are alike, or two books alike, or two speeches alike. He is most excited about “What is next?”. Jeffrey lives in the moment but is ready for tomorrow and his ideas, strategies, and connections – they are all in place to set him up for success in the present day and the next.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Personalization
Service as the foundation of success
Truthful living
Communication

Oct 8, 2018

Tom Basso is back for episode 700. Tom is featured across Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizard” series and most famously known as “Mr. Serenity.” He was featured on episode 400 of Trend Following Radio with a mega 4 ½ hour episode, and today he is back for this new episode. Now retired from managing client money, Tom was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. He became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998.

Although Tom has been retired for over 15 years he still gets emails daily from aspiring traders. While on vacation with his wife, they came up with a more efficient solution to answering all these emails. Tom decided to start an educational platform that he more candidly describes as a “Tom Basso brain dump into a website.” He has had 28 years of experience managing money and over 40 years of managing his own money. With all that knowledge, his new website addresses what he feels new and old traders alike struggle with. All content on his website will be free aside from his personal training videos and a narrated version of his book “Panic-Proof Investing.”

What is it about the individual that is so important in trading? How do you become the best trader you can be? How does exercise and diet play into trading? How do you separate self worth from your net worth? How do you stay young in your energy? Michael and Tom keep their conversation on trading today more philosophical rather than technical.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

Trend following philosophy
Separation of net worth from self worth
How to view winning trades vs. losing trades
Staying mentally young
Brooks Koepka vs. Tiger Woods
Dealing with stress in the markets
Social media stressors

1 « Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Next » 30